The Future Imagined: Insights from the arts - Europa EU
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Thinking ahead sustainably:
Policies, Scenarios and Models to address
Grand Societal Challenges
The Future Imagined: Insights from the arts
(filmic and literary representations) "
Olivia Bina and Simone Tulumello
With Sandra Mateus, Lavinia Pereira, Annalisa Caffa
– ICS-Ulisboa
Brussels – 16/12/15
FLAGSHIP Final event
FLAGSHIP is Funded by the 7th Framework Programme
of the European Union
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FLA
GSCs
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2
Questions
§ What are the main concerns/hopes in
futures fiction?
• Can they enrich our capacity to envision
the future?
• Can they enrich today’s framing of GSCs?
o What differences & what implications?
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Fiction & FLA
DETAIL
INVOLVEMENT
Counters
tendency
Reach
wide
audience
–
CREATIVE
INPUT
towards
abstracBon:
thus
amplify
parBcipaBon
Balance
methods
based
on
Simple/poeBc;
in
debate/reflecBon;
evidence/experBse
Detailed/daily
symbolic
IdenBfy
themes
that
With
creaBve
inputs
factual
vs
macro
systemic
resonate
widely
with
the
perspecBves
public
CRITIQUE
WARNING
REFLECTION
Socio-‐historical
criBque
of
AnBcipatory
knowledge
On
cultural
codes,
values,
social
structure,
power,
Predict
&
explore
risks
ideologies;
poliBcs
and
agency;
IdenBfy
possible
warning
Explore
alternaBves
to
Help
DMs
think
of
ethical
signals
socio-‐poliBcal
status
quo
implicaBons/dilemmas
of
Popper:
Science
FicBoning
alternaBve
futures
bina@ics.ulisboa.pt 4
Approach AnalyBcal
Content
RESULTS
Template
analysis
Core
GSCs
&
Choice
of
matrix:
for
each
Challenges
FLAGSHIP
“texts”
themes
&
Network
record/text
Major
dimensions
analysis
pa"erns
bina@ics.ulisboa.pt 5
Science to shape the future:
the making of GSCs
A"racBveness/
relevance
at
all
levels
of
society
Map
the
"main
trends
ahead
and
possible
Feasibility
disrup2ve
global
challenges
in
the
future”
GSCs
Knowledge
to
“shape
the
Sufficient
scale
and
future”
Clear
research
scope
to
capture
the
dimension
public
and
poliBcal
imaginaBon
OpBons
for
prioriBsaBon
bina@ics.ulisboa.pt 6
Science to shape the future:
the making of GSCs
InnovaBon
Technology
Finance
Demography
Economics
Social
Developmen Change
t
GSCs
Knowledge
to
“shape
the
future”
Governance
Society
Energy
Environment
bina@ics.ulisboa.pt 7
Choices…
Selecting “texts”
bina@ics.ulisboa.pt 8
Lead
by
MCRIT
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Novels
Films
Futures
FicBon
64
150
yrs
bina@ics.ulisboa.pt 9
The
Machine
Stops
Neuromancer
Fahrenheit
451
Escape
from
L.A.
The
Tomorrow
File
The
Diamond
Age,
or
A
Alphaville
Code
46
Paris
in
the
TwenAeth
Young
Lady's
La
Jetée
V
for
Vende"a
Century
(1863)
Illustrated
Primer
District
9
On
the
Beach
The
Giver
Hunger
Games
The
Time
Machine
Solaris
Infinite
Jest
Children
of
Men
We
Logan's
Run
Cloud
Atlas
Avatar
Brave
New
World
The
Passage
The
Terminator
Minority
Report
The
Space
Merchants
The
Windup
Girl
Dawn
of
the
Dead
Elysium
(2013)
The
Lathe
of
Heaven
Uglies
Mad
Max
Vexille
Stand
on
Zanzibar
The
Road
28
days
Later
RoboCop
Feed
Appleseed
A
Clockwork
Orange
Blade
Runner
The
Swarm
The
Day
aler
Do
Androids
Dream
of
La
police
en
l'an
2000
Brazil
Tomorrow
Electric
Sheep?
Total
Recall
Soylent
Green
1984
Verdens
Undergang
Twelve
Monkeys
The
Handmaid’s
Tale
aka
The
End
of
the
The
Filh
Element
“significant
and
Ender's
Game
World
lasAng
impact
Waterworld
Z
for
Zachariah
Le
tunnel
sous
La
on
the
public
Matrix
The
Stand
Manche
imaginaAon”
Metropolis
Ga"aca
Things
to
come
bina@ics.ulisboa.pt
10Results
1) Archetypal futures
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FLA
GSCs
bina@ics.ulisboa.pt 11Archetypal visions of
the future: Clardy 2011
Archetypal
visions
of
the
ExplanaBon n %
future
The
natural
or
non-‐natural
moBvaBons
Collapse 26 40,6
behind
the
civilizaBonal
decadence
or
ruin
As
the
portrait
of
authoritarian
projects
AnA-‐utopia 25 39,1
resulBng
in
the
contrary
of
utopia
The
complex,
chaoBc
scenarios
and
Dystopia 24 37,5
borderline
socieBes
The
more
propheBcal
or
religious
approaches
Apocalypse 14 21,9
related
to
the
end
of
Bmes
Conflict
&
DescripBon
of
a
society
in
constant
warfare 10 15,6
RevoluAon
The
benefits
of
a
raBonal/
equalitarian
Utopia systems
and
the
rebirth
of
new
forms
of
8 12,5
utopiaNetwork Analysis of Archetypes
(categories after Clardy 2011)
praise
of
the
technological/
scienBfic/
raBonal
Utopia
model
present
in
utopian
texts;
nihilisBc
and
criBcal
tendencies
in
Dystopia
dystopian
texts
(Booker,
1994).
AnB-‐Utopia
Collapse
Apocalypse
Conflict
bina@ics.ulisboa.pt 13Network Analysis of Archetypes
(categories after Clardy 2011)
Utopia
Dystopia
AnB-‐Utopia
Collapse
Apocalypse
Conflict
bina@ics.ulisboa.pt 14Alternatives to disruption paths
Non-‐human
developments
Gradual
evoluBon
towards
disrupBon
(building
on
&
human
disrupBve
events
‘present’
trends)
Resource
Scarcity
Social
cultural
&
Environmental
tensions
leading
to
Crisis/Collapse
crisis/Collapse
AcriBcal
acceptance
(utopian
narraBves)
of
technological
advances
bina@ics.ulisboa.pt 15Results
2)
Core challenges
Frequent patterns
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FLA
GSCs
bina@ics.ulisboa.pt 16When fiction speaks “its Truth” to
futures and science
Fiction has the power to illustrate
what might happen:
" when science blurs the " when the built
boundaries between human environment promotes
and non-human; individuals’ alienation;
" when the relationship between " when the structures of
humans, technology and nature power, education and
reaches the proverbial point of property all contribute
no return; to deepen social
stratification and
inequality.
bina@ics.ulisboa.pt
1718 Content analysis
4 Core Challenges in fiction
4.
Society
1.
Individuals,
and
social
society
and
change
culture
Control
&
ManipulaBon
3.
2.
Science/
Environment
Technology
-‐Technology
and
society
vs
Nature
Source: Bina et al forthcoming19
23 most frequent patterns
1.
Individuals,
society
and
culture
2.
Science/Technology
and
society
- “Scarcity”
-‐
individual
dignity,
human
values
and
- Advanced
technology
(42,2%)
wellbeing
(50,0%)
- Technology
as
a
socio-‐poliAcal
instrument
of
- Dehumanizing
processes
(39,1%)
control
(39,1%)
- Disrespect
of
Human
Rights
(37,5%)
- Technology
use
restricted
to
specific
ends
or
- Strong
homogenizaAon
of
idenAAes
(37,5%)
for/by
elite
groups
(39,1%)
- Social
control
and
subjecAve
distress
(26,6%)
- Technology
used
for
social
dominaBon
and
manipulaBon
(26,6%)
- Science
as
a
tool
for
manipulaBon,
control
and
raBonalizaBon
(26,6%)
3.
Environment
-‐Technology
vs
Nature
4.
Society
and
social
change
- (Near)impossibility
to
breathe
in
open
air
(39,1%)
- Socioeconomic
discriminaBon
(based
on
- Technology
used
for
control
of
nature
(39,1%)
propriety,
educaBon
or
other)
(34,4%)
- Extreme
urbanizaBon
and
verBcal
density
(34,4%)
- High
straBficaBon
and
unequal
socieBes
(32,8%)
- Interconnectedness
and
resulAng
fragility
(34,4%)
- Existence
of
resistance
and
opposiBon
- Species
exAncAon
and
decline
in
biodiversity
movements
(31,3%)
(34,4%)
- Women
inequality
(31,3%)
- AestheBc/
Spiritual
Value
of
Nature
(31,3%)
- StraAficaAon
of
workers
&
occupaAons
(28,1%)
- Food
scarcity,
replacement
&
lack
of
choice
(28,1%)
- Absence
of
consumpAon
(26,6%)
Source: Bina et al forthcoming“future present”
" resulting patterns &
warning signals:
§ elements of such future
have already escaped
the imaginary world to
make part of today’s
experience.
" Beware of ‘gradual
evolution towards
disruption’
bina@ics.ulisboa.pt 20Other Futures
• Current H2020 priorities assume that
• “all innovation is socially beneficial”
• “grand challenges have been generally framed
• in ways favouring capital-intensive technoscientific
solutions, at the expense of other approaches”
• even when the possibility of promoting an
alternative research agendas is perfectly viable
(Levidow and Neubaue, 2012).
bina@ics.ulisboa.pt
21Results
3) Risk of scarcity - redefined?
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GSCs
bina@ics.ulisboa.pt 2223
What risks to become scarce in
imagined futures?
Self-‐direcAon
Reflexivity
(1984,
1949;
The
Handmaid’s
Tale,
1985;
(Feed,
2002;
Matrix,
1999)
Logan's
Run,
1976;
Twelve
Monkeys,
1995)
Dignity
Freedom
(The
Tomorrow
File,
1975;
A
Clockwork
(Escape
from
L.A.,
1996)
Orange,
1962;
Hunger
Games,
2012)
Hope
Security
and
protecAon
(Soylent
Green,
1973;
On
the
Beach,
1959;
(The
Time
Machine,
1895;
Mad
Max,
Blade
Runner,
1982;
Children
of
Men,
2006) 1979)
SenAments
and
capacity
to
feel
emoAons
Equality
(We,
1921;
Do
Androids
Dream
of
Electric
(Metropolis,
1926;
Elysium,
2013)
Sheep?,
1968;
The
Giver,
1993)
IdenAty
Peace
(We,
1921;
Uglies,
2005;
Twelve
Monkeys,
(Appleseed,
2004)
1995)
Privacy
JusAce
(Stand
on
Zanzibar,
1968;
Minority
Report,
(Elysium,
2013)
2002)
Idealism
and
creaAvity
Love
(Paris
in
the
TwenBeth
Century,
1863;
Brazil,
(The
Handmaid’s
Tale,
1985)
1985)
Source:
Bina
et
al
forthcoming
Trust
(Ender's
Game,
1973)
bina@ics.ulisboa.ptFiction invites us to rethink “scarcity”
Scarcity
“Internal”
External
“intangible”
bina@ics.ulisboa.pt 24A more balanced focus for
FLA and research agenda
External Internal/Intangible
" Resources and " Individual dignity,
Ecological Functions/ human values and
Services wellbeing, what makes
us human
" Focus
§ Technoscience " Focus
§ Emotional, self-knowledge,
spiritual (& implications of
transhumanism)
bina@ics.ulisboa.pt
25Results
4)
H2020+
Re-visiting research agendas
Caution & Daring
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GSCs
bina@ics.ulisboa.pt 26H2020 Challenges
a summary of the patterns
identified in fiction and
which are largely or fully
absent in H2020 discourse
Source: Bina et al forthcoming
Table 29
bina@ics.ulisboa.pt 27H2020 + Caution
Warning signals: High frequency patterns
" Technology
§ used for social domination and manipulation
§ use restricted to specific ends or for/by elite groups
§ as socio-political instrument of control
" Science as a tool for manipulation, control and
rationalization
" Scarcity: individual dignity, human values and
wellbeing, what makes us human
§ Dehumanization processes
§ Strong homogenization
bina@ics.ulisboa.pt 28H2020 + Daring
8 dimensions (& 31 patterns)
" Happiness and wellbeing (psychological conditions & QoL)
" Connectedness (interaction, physical closeness)
" Progress and future (ideas of progress & time, ideas of risk in the future)
" Identity (belonging, collective memory/aspirations, homogenisation/subcultures)
" Systems of beliefs (values, ethics, spirituality, religion)
" Meaning of life and existence (Personal project and personal identity
(who am I))
" Conceptions of the human (e. g. human nature, human condition, trans-
humanism)
" Entertainment and art (self-expression, creativity, leisure, entertainment/
control)
" Aesthetic/ Spiritual Value of Nature (redeeming role and to
embody the notion of hope itself)
bina@ics.ulisboa.pt 29Concluding:
21st C needs a new
Archetype of the Future
Utopia
Dystopia
AnB-‐Utopia
Collapse
Apocalypse
Conflict
bina@ics.ulisboa.pt 30And
now,
over
to
our
FLAGSHIP
colleagues
Thanks!
Envision
what
Invest
in
the
Know
what
we
©
The
Matrix
we
MIGHT
KNOWLEDGE
do
NOT
want
desire
we
NEED
bina@ics.ulisboa.pt 3132
GSCs
¡ JRC-‐IPTS
(2008)
" iKnow
1.Water security and vulnerability
¡ Need
to
Change
the
Current
Ways
of
Using
2.Energy security and vulnerability
EssenBal
Natural
Resources
3.Health, illness and well-being
¡ Need
to
AnBcipate
and
Adapt
to
Societal
4.Sustainability and climate change
Changes
5.Ageing and demographic issues
¡ Need
for
EffecBve
and
Transparent
6.Food security and culture
Governance
for
the
EU
and
the
World
7.Globalisation and localisation
8.Social cohesion and diversity
9.Technological security, hazard and risk
10.Consumption and behavioural change
¡ ERA
11.Innovation, knowledge and technology
1. Realising
a
single
labour
market
for
researchers
12.Work-life balance and mental health
2. Developing
world-‐class
research
infrastructures
13.Science, technology and ethics
3. Strengthening
research
insBtuBons
14.Crime, security and justice
4. Sharing
knowledge
15.Governance, democracy and citizenship
5. OpBmising
research
programmes
and
prioriBes
16.Coexistence and conflict
6. Opening
to
the
world:
internaBonal
17.Social pathologies and ethics
cooperaBon
in
S&T
18.Social exclusion, poverty and affluence
19.Economic prosperity and growth
dynamics
¡ H2020
7
Societal
Challenges
20.Urban and rural dynamics
(Council
Decision
2013)
21.Education and skills dynamics
bina@ics.ulisboa.ptSocial
Inequality
and
stra2fica2on
Individuals,
society
and
Scarcity
of
human
values
culture
Dehumaniza2on
processes
Environment
and
InnovaBon
and
Food
(resource
technology,
efficiency)
Control
and
resource
manipulaAon
efficiency
Demography,
Anthropocene
social
change,
skills
and
Scarcity
empowerment
Economy
(GDP)
bina@ics.ulisboa.pt
33When fiction speaks “its Truth” to
futures and science
The future in fiction has the power Or, from a more optimistic
to illustrate what might happen: perspective, what might
" when science blurs the happen:
boundaries between human " when the power of
and non-human; hope and the capacity
" when the relationship between for equanimity and
humans and nature reaches the love, are able to revert
proverbial point of no return; dehumanizing trends;
" when the built environment " when the redeeming
promotes individual alienation; character of nature is
" when the structures of power, capable of
education and property all reconnecting us to our
own humanity.
contribute to deepen social
stratification and inequality.
bina@ics.ulisboa.pt
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