VIDEO CONSUMPTION IN 2020 - A STUDY ON CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR AND CONSUMER MOTIVES CIM NORDLING, DIVA
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DEGREE PROJECT, IN MEDIATECHNOLOGY , SECOND LEVEL STOCKHOLM, SWEDEN 2015 Video consumption in 2020 A STUDY ON CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR AND CONSUMER MOTIVES CIM NORDLING, CIMN@KTH.SE KTH ROYAL INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY COMPUTER SCIENCE AND COMMUNICATION (CSC)
VIDEO KONSUMTION 2020
En studie över konsumtionsbeteende och motiven bakom tv-tittande
SAMMANFATTNING
Tv-branschen har gått från en tid då traditionella medier hade ett större inflytande över konsumenternas
beteende. Konsumenterna tar allt större kontroll över sin konsumtion av rörlig bild, vilket ställer nya
krav på medieindustrin. Genom att förstå varför konsumenter vänder sig till rörlig bild i olika
tittarsituationer kan medieaktörer erbjuda en förbättrad tittarupplevelse.
I denna studie undersöks hur konsumenternas beteende kan komma att utvecklas fram till 2020.
Studien består av två delar; dels en analys av konsumentdrivkrafter identifierade av tidigare forskning,
och dels en kvalitativ studie baserad på expertintervjuer. I studien fastställdes tre tittarsituationer;
socialt tittande, engagerat tittande och bakgrundstittande. Situationer sattes i relation till de
identifierade trenderna inom områdena; teknik, konsumentbeteende och nya affärsidéer. Resultatet av
studien tyder på att linjär tv fortfarande kommer vara en stor del av videokonsumtionen 2020, samtidigt
som användningen av Over-the-top-tjänster (OTT) förväntas öka. Linjär tv torde användas mer för
slötittande och live-evenemang, medan VOD väntas användas för att uppfylla personliga behov.
Konsumentbeteende förväntas utvecklas mest i den sociala tittarsituationen, eftersom bilden av socialt
tittande vidgas och de förväntade tekniska framstegen sannolikt kommer att få oss att känna närvaro
både över tid och rum. Engagerat tittande torde också förändras, om fem år antas binge watch, alltså
titta på flera avsnitt av samma serie i rad, vara allt vanligare. Till skillnad från de andra
tittarsituationerna, tyder resultatet på att bakgrundstittande inte kommer att förändras lika mycket,
främst på grund av att beteendet är djupt rotat i linjär tv.
Nyckelord
TV konsumtion, Tittarbeteende, Need states, Uses and gratification, VOD, Linjär tv, OTTVideo consumption in 2020
A study on consumer behaviour and consumer
motives
Cim Nordling
KTH Royal institute of technology
Computer Science and Communication (CSC)
Stockholm, Sweden
Cimn@kth.se
ABSTRACT 1. INTRODUCTION
The television industry is evolving from an environment The television landscape has changed; online alternatives
where traditional media had a greater influence over the have become an evident part of our media consumption
consumer behaviour. Consumers are taking control over and are closing up on traditional channels [1]. Digital
their video consumption, which places new demands on revolution is not only changing the TV landscape it is also
the media industry. By understanding consumer motives a driving force behind consumer behavior. Statistics show
and viewing situations, media actors can provide an that broadcasted television is decreasing in viewing time;
enhanced viewing experience. during 2014 it declined with 4% while the viewing time
via Internet increased with 21% [2]. Consumers are given
This thesis studies how consumer behaviour can evolve more choices and the possibility to pick and mix a
until 2020. The study consists of two parts; firstly the personalized range of TV and video services. Similar to
identification of viewing motives identified by previous the trend we have seen within the music industry, TV and
research and secondly a qualitative study based on expert video services are becoming unbundled, in the sense that
interviews. The study concluded three viewing situations; consumers can choose services separate and decide how
social viewing, engaged viewing and background they would like to pay from a wide range of subscription
viewing. The viewing situations were put in relation to the and transaction models [3]. Consumers are expected to
identified trends in the areas; technology, consumer quickly adapt to new services and products, while
behaviour and new business concepts. The main findings becoming more active users. Therefore when designing
state that broadcasted linear television ought to be an new video services, it is important to understand how
evident part of video consumption in 2020, while the consumers use television, in order to make the digital
usage of Over-the-top (OTT) services are expected to transition easier [4].
increase. Broadcasted television is likely to be used more Today video consumption occurs in a wide range of
for background viewing and for live events, while Video- environments, on multiple platforms and via different
on-demand (VOD) is assumed to approach a role as a devices. Video can be anything from a short clip on
customizable service that satisfies personal needs. The YouTube, or video on demand to traditional scheduled
consumer behaviour is believed to evolve the most in the TV shows. The device used to access the video content
social viewing situation. For the reason that the definition can be a static television or a mobile device like a tablet
of social television is extending and the technological or a laptop. The technology development has brought new
advancement is likely to make us feel connected both business opportunities and changed the fundamental
over space and time. Another aspect that is presumed to habits of video consumption. The diversity of the
change is the engaged viewing, where consumers ought to multiple viewing situations lead to significant different
be more likely to binge watch, which is when you watch contextual factors, that affect the consumers’ choice of
multiple episode of the same show in a row. Unlike the device and content.
other situations, the background viewing behaviour is not
assumed to change fundamentally, mainly because the In the next five years we will see a remarkable change as
behaviour is deeply rooted in linear television. the traditional television services, like terrestrial, satellite
and cable services, continue to meet new Internet and
Keywords mobile media platforms. Indications are that we have seen
TV consumption, Viewing behaviour, Need states, Uses the beginning of this journey and now we can expect
and gratification, VOD, Linear TV, OTT behavioural changes among the mass as well [5].
Predicting the exact future is close to impossible, but this
thesis will try to create a vision of how the televisionindustry could appear in the future, by looking at the 1.2 Delimitations
viewing situation today combined with current trends. The thesis is focused on the Swedish consumers and the
Swedish media market. Advertising aspects will not be
1.1 Purpose and problem definition considered to a larger extent since the focus is on the
The future of the television industry is essential for consumers’ perspective. The main concern will be legal
multiple actors; one of them is Nepa1, a research company services and therefore illegal alternatives such as illegal
that operates in several fields including the media downloading and streaming, will not be taken into
industry. Nepa provides entertainment companies with account.
customer insights through analytics. This thesis has been
done in collaboration with and with supervision from
Nepa. 2. The TV landscape
The study aims to outline the future viewing behavior, but
Given the larger effect by the consumers on the media
in order to do that, an understanding of the situation today
industry, the users’ motives behind choosing certain
is needed. Hence follows a short description of the
content or channels are of high relevance. By
Swedish TV landscape. To better understand the video
understanding the contextual factors of viewing
landscape, television can be separated in two main
situations, TV-providers and video delivery systems can
categories, linear television and non-linear television.
enhance the experience when watching video. Therefore
Linear TV is the traditional television that is broadcasted
the main focus of this thesis has been to investigate how
with a set program schedule determined by the distributer.
consumers will watch video in 2020. The underlying
Non-linear TV allows the consumer to choose a specific
objectives were (1) to identify different viewing situations
program and the possibility to start that program
based on consumers’ motivation for watching video and
whenever he or she prefers. Non-linear TV could also be
pinpointing the underlying internal needs that drives the
called Video on Demand (VOD) or interactive TV [6].
media consumption and (2) to identify what trends are
The new possibilities place new demands on the media
relevant when approaching the future consumer
industry, which has changed the ecosystem of the TV
behaviour.
market. Traditionally a value chain (See figure 1)
consisting of content producers, broadcasters, distributors
This has given the problem definition:
and technology developers has characterized the
entertainment and media industry.
How will the viewing behaviour of video appear in 2020?
However this is no longer the case, due to convergence of
• Which are the underlying drivers behind the choice of the entertainment and technology industries the traditional
platform and content today? value chain has started to dissolve. Within the
• What trends are relevant for the development within transforming value chain more and more actors seek
the TV industry during the five following years? direct contact with end consumers. For example content
• How will the trends affect the future consumer producers who establish their own channels to reach the
behaviour? end customer without going through aggregators or
distributors. These kinds of services are often called OTT
services (Over-The-Top services) [6]. Due to more
1
http://www.nepa.com
viewing possibilities, the total time spent in front of video
is increasing, in 2014 the average time watching video in
Sweden among 16-65 year-olds exceeded four hours per
day. Comparing the usage between traditional television
and new online media the difference is still noticeable, out
of the average four hours of watching video, broadcast
television accounts for 57%[2]. In Sweden we have a
high internet penetration, over 90% of the population
have access to the Internet [1]. More and more people are
paying to watch online video; both for movies and
television.
The
traditional
media
value
chain
Content
Broadcasters
/
Distributors
Consumer
devices
producers
content
aggregators
• Producers
of
• Media
houses
for
• TV
operators,
• Producers
of
the
movies,
series
or
example
SBS,
MTG
network
operators
technology
tv-‐shows,
for
and
Bonnier.
or
on
demand
needed
to
example
HBO,
distributors,
for
distribute
or
view
Hollywood
studios
example
Com
video
for
example
Hem,
Canal
Digital
Samsung,
Sony
and
Strix
and
NeJlix.
and
Apple
television
Figure 1: The traditional value chain [6]In Sweden 14 % of the Internet users have a subscription • Context; is the consumer sharing the experience or
to a video on demand service (SVOD) [1]. It also exist watching solitary?
more media devices than ever, in an average Swedish • Content selection; What type of content is chosen?
home there are seven media devices [2]. A total of 45% of • Temporal context; Is the video consumed on a
the population has access to a smartphone, a computer special occasion or is it everyday viewing?
and a tablet (See figure 2); only 10% of the people do not • Consumption device; Which devices and services
have access to neither of the devices. A high Internet are most commonly used?
usage in combination with a widespread diffusion of
devices has resulted in OTT services gaining a big
audience. In the end of 2014 nearly 2,5 million people had A lot of studies have been done on user situations, where
access to a SVOD service in their home [7] which meant similar situations have been found. The identified viewing
that streaming services reached 71% of the Swedish situations in this study do not provide a fully extensive
population each month (See figure 3). view, but rather an overall picture that includes the
majority of the user motivations [8].
Access
to
computer,
smartphone
and
tablet
The second part of the study and the main focus of the
45%
thesis was a qualitative study based on expert interviews.
To be able to identify trends within the media industry, it
proved more valuable to make an interview study with
25%
industry experts rather than consumers. Data source
triangulation was used to gain a more comprehensive
13%
understanding of the media industry and to understand the
10%
5%
drivers and barriers for each actor. The reason for this was
1%
1%
mainly to get a deeper understanding of difficulties and
opportunities within the media market [9]. The interview
Computer,
Computer
Computer
Smartphone
Only
Only
Neither
smartphone
and
and
tablet
and
tablet
smartphone
computer
participants were chosen to cover actors from different
and
tablet
smartphone
parts of the value chain as well as advisory companies
within the media area. In total 8 interviews were carried
Figure 2: Population with access to each device [1] out from: TV-providers and VOD services, technology
providers, broadcasting companies and media strategy
Streaming
reach
among
the
Swedish
population
(15
to
74
years-‐old)
companies. (See Table 1) The interviews were semi-
structured in depth interviews [10]. All the interviews
Per
month:
71%
were done in Swedish and the results and quotes has been
translated to English.
Per
week:
60%
Before conducting the interviews, questions were
Per
day:
35%
iteratively defined and sent to the participants in advance
in order for them to understand the aim of the interview.
The questions were based on findings from the literature
review. Basically the same open-ended questions were
used through all interviews, however questions differed in
some extent depending on in which area the company
Figure 3: Streaming reach among the population [35] operated. The interviews were, all but one, carried out
face-to-face and ranged in the length of 35-70 minutes.
The last interview were done by telephone and lasted
about 60 minutes. The data was collected via
transcriptions of audio recordings from the interviews.
3. METHOD
This study consists of two parts. The first part; a review of The material was sorted and analysed to identify trends on
literature based on studies containing the uses and the market and in consumer behaviour. The identified
gratification-theory, the goal was to identify frequently trends were then compared in order to determine which
observed consumer motivations. By analysing trends were the most important, i.e. which trends will
gratifications and need states (See figure 4) in relation to have an impact on consumer behaviour. The trends were
the following parameters, explained in 4.1 and 4.2, categorized and then analysed in relation to the identified
common viewing situations have been identified. viewing situations.
The interview questions, translated into English, can be
found in Appendix 2.Operation area Position Interview Even though the uses and gratifications approach is
Market Analysis A widely used it is not without some criticism. Firstly, the
TV operator assumption that the consumer always makes active and
and Research
goal-oriented choices has been criticised, especially
Product and B regarding traditional media which is less selective and is
TV operator Business assumed to trigger more habitual watching patterns [4].
development Secondly, research argues that it is not enough to only
look at the individual factors when determining consumer
Program C motivation. The uses and gratification approach ignores
Broadcasting director for structural and contextual factors such as cultural specifics,
company interactive audience availability, and access [4]. Some studies argues
content that choice of medium and platform are mostly depending
on contextual factors while choice of content often is
Network, technology D
and service provider Media strategy associated with individual factors, see for example [17].
A more recent approach, that accounts the criticism of the
VOD Service CEO E uses and gratification perspective, is the theory about
VOD Service CEO F television need states (See figure 4). Each state is not only
Business G shaped by the motive behind watching video, but also by
development and Analyst context as well as the choice of device and content. The
strategy six need states disclose a variety of viewing motives that
Media measuring H could be used to describe different viewing situations.
CEO
company
The
six
need
states
of
television
Table 1. Conducted expert interviews
4. EXISTING RESEARCH ON
MEDIA BEHAVIOUR
To fully understand how consumer behaviour can evolve
during the coming years a here follows a presentation of
theories used to determine consumers’ motives behind
watching television, and a description on current user
behaviour.
Figure 4: Chart of the six need states of television,
adapted from [22]
4.1 Consumer motivations
One approach to why people watch television is the “uses The need state Indulge is about satisfying the need for
and gratifications”-theory, which is a widely used “me-time” and give in to pleasures, it is the time when
framework that studies consumer behaviour and motives you watch your favourite content and really devour in
behind using media [4],[11],[12]. The theory suggests that what you enjoy watching the most. Escape could be
choices made when watching television are motivated by described as the need to leave everyday-life, when you
the desire to satisfy a series of needs [13]. The uses and want to immerse into another place or time. The consumer
gratification perspective assumes that consumers are could use the content as a portal to “escape” from the
active users that make goal-oriented choices [14], reality. The state Experience is the desire of a fun and
therefore the choice of content and platform will be based enjoyable occasion, which could be shared with family or
on the objective to fulfil the desired gratification. friends. Unwind is defined by the need of de-stressing
after a day of hard work or deferring the pressures in life.
The uses and gratification-theory has been the subject for By watching television the consumers can relax and clear
various studies, most of them have found three to six their minds. Comfort is about the everyday rituals, for
gratifications that consumers seek when watching example it could be shared family time in front of the TV
television. Similar to other research, McQuail [15], [16] while having dinner or when seeking comfort in
argues that the gratifications are: Surveillance, Personal togetherness. Connect is the need to feel a sense of
identity, Integration and social interaction, Diversion. connection to society, to time or to a place. It is often
(See Appendix 1 for more examples) characterized by live-based content that connect the
consumer with people outside the living room.Average
time
spent
watching
video
on
each
device
per
week
4.2 Consumer habits
VOD services and OTT solutions have made the
viewership more flexible and personalized [6].
Consumers demand larger control over their media
consumption, which promotes the free choice within the
TV landscape. Consumers want unrestricted access
anywhere, any time and on any device [3]. With a
multitude of devices and multiple viewing occasions the
time spent watching video is more fragmented than ever.
Even though multiple devices are used, consumers’
attitude has shifted from accessing a device to accessing
content no matter device. The mind-set has changed from
“What is on right now” to “What do I feel like watching
right now” [18].
Figures 5: Most used device, adapted from [23]
Even though smartphones and tablets have extended our
viewing behaviour throughout the day, most of the
viewing is still done from the home. The largest viewing Percentage
of
the
viewers
who
use
other
devices
while
occasion is at home during prime time, approximately watching
television
between 7pm-11pm [19]. It is also the situation when the
60%
consumer is most focused and engaged with the content. 48%
50%
Most of the video is consumed on the TV screen (See
figure 5) [20]. However, consumers have adopted a 40%
31%
2013
30%
second screen behaviour, meaning that they use their 17%
17%
phone, computer or tablet while watching television. 36% 20%
2014
of the time spent in front of a traditional TV set is spent 10%
doing other activities like browsing, looking at the TV 0%
schedule or using social media on another screen (See
figure 6) [21].
Figure 6: Second screen behaviour [21]
Viewing occasions can be split up into everyday viewing
and special occasion viewing. Everyday viewing tends to The study done by Thinkbox research [22] claims that
be non-live television while special occasion viewing personal needs are better satisfied by VOD services;
tends to be more live content and event based watching. especially the states indulge and escape. However VOD
Content can also be divided into two parts; premium seems to be less suitable for social needs like experience
content such as your favourite TV shows and secondary and connect, mainly because the traditional TV is more
content for example old movies. In a study by Ericsson equipped to satisfy those needs. When people watch
[23], VOD is present in each of the four quadrants in the television to unwind or for comfort, they more often
two-dimensional space defined by content type and chose to watch it on the TV screen [19].
viewing type (See figure 7).
The
role
of
different
content
types
and
content
services
Figure 7: Map over content and viewing occasions, adapted from [23]5. RESULT The content could be watched on the big TV screen, on a
tablet or computer from the bed before going to sleep,
depending on the context and access to devices. This type
5.1 Identified viewing situations of engaged viewing often occurs during the later part of
The following section is mainly based on the review of the evening.
previous research and existing statistics of television
viewing. By analysing the television need states in 5.1.3 Background viewing
relation to the Swedish TV landscape and current The situation is a routine viewing situation with the goal
consumer habits, the following viewing situations have to de-stress and to defer the pressures in life. The
been identified. consumption is habitual and used to feel comfort and
relaxed as well as to get your mind of things. The choice
5.1.1 Social viewing of content and device is not as important. What
Refers to a social viewing situation with the purpose of characterizes this situation is simplicity and routine,
connecting with others and feel a sense of belonging. The therefore it is common to watch secondary content or the
situation is characterized by the longing for connection to content that is broadcasted at the moment. Since the
society, to a place or to people around you. The viewing consumer is not as engaged in the content, it is not a must
often occurs in company with others, such as family and to watch the entire program. The situation often occurs
friends, based on the desire of a shared experience. Both during the early part of the evening and is a way to pass
in the sense of being together and in the sense of time when getting home from work or school and to
discussing the content with others, the viewer feel like a reload before making dinner or doing chores.
part of a group or community. The situation mainly
consists of special occasion viewing and can be
categorized as primetime watching. The content watched
5.2 Identified trends
Based on the expert interviews the study found three main
is either premium or secondary. If the need is to feel
areas that will have an impact on how consumer
connected to others the choice of content is very
behaviour will evolve during the next five years. The
important, typically it is premium content such as live
identified trends are therefore categorized by these three
events, sports, or primetime shows. The content often has
main areas; technology, consumer trends and new
a live feeling connected to it, such as competition shows.
business concepts. The relevant trends have been
It is often watched at a set time through broadcasted
identified based on frequency in the interviews and
television, since this reinforces the feeling of connection
potential affect on consumer behaviour.
to people outside the living room. If the aim is to socialize
with the people in the same room, the choice of content is
5.2.1 Technology trends
still important but not as crucial as in the previous
According to Ng [24] technology is a central part of the
scenario. It could be secondary content, such as a movie,
media industry; therefore the technology development is
since the most important is to share the experience and
an evident part when forecasting how the consumer
have quality time with the people in the room. The device
behaviour could change. Technology was also a recurring
chosen in both scenarios is generally the big TV screen,
subject during the interviews, here follows a couple of
since it is easier to share with others and gives the viewers
relevant technology trends that were identified on top on
a better social experience.
the continued digitalization.
5.1.2 Engaged viewing
Extended flexibility
A viewing situation customized after your preferences.
One of the trends that was brought up in several
The aim is to treat yourself with your personal favourites
interviews, was free choice and flexibility, this trend is
and satisfy the need for “me-time”. It can work as an
believed to continue to evolve and have a great effect on
escape from reality, in order to leave your everyday life
consumer behaviour. Two important technology aspects
and stop thinking about difficult or uncomfortable
that were raised was the possibility to place shift and time
situations in your real life. This situation is about cuddling
shift. The option to control at what time to consume
up in front of your favourite program and just enjoying
specific content is called time shift while place shift
the moment. The situation is often characterized by
allows you to access content stored on one device from
solitary viewing, because the content watched may be
another place through a different device [23]. Both place
your personal favourite or not appropriate for the whole
shift and time shift is frequently used when watching
family to watch. People who share the same interest could
VOD today and this study shows that it is assumed to
share this situation together, but the focus is still to
become even more common in the future. This could
indulge and empathizes with the content. The situation is
allow consumers to move easier between new digital
characterized by premium content and special occasion
media platforms and traditional linear television. ”To the
viewing, the situation occurs when the consumer have
consumers VOD and broadcasted television will blend
time and are often watched on demand. The content is
together, it is becoming more of a technology issue. The
highly engaging and is something the consumer really
easier the platforms and solutions become the more the
enjoys watching.
audience can move seamlessly between different
distribution channels”(Interview C).The increasing movement over space and time can be personalized recommendations, both at the right time and
summarized by the acronym AWATAD – Anywhere, Any the right type of content for each situation. “It will
Time, Any Device. AWATAD is a term that has been happen more frequently that your TV or your device
used within the television industry for a couple of years recommend what you could watch based on what you
[25]. In several of the interviews it was highlighted that it have watched before, say for example that I watch news
has been considered an advantage to offer the consumers every evening around seven, then my TV could show me
AWATAD. However, it is becoming more of an all the possible news programs when I turn on the TV
expectation and demand from the consumers rather than a around that time” (Interview A). According to the experts
competitive edge. “… As soon as some new device or this is a trend that will affect how we consume video.
platform appears the consumer expects us to exist there
as well” (Interview F). It was also brought up that 5.2.2 Consumer behaviour trends
AWATAD is a trend that is expected to continuously As mentioned earlier, we have entered a new era in
affect the consumer behaviour and evolve to be a standard television; not only in regards to technology but also the
functionality among all the media actors – from TV way we approach media has changed. The consumers
providers to VOD services. ”People are getting used to have embraced the new watching possibilities, which
the free choice when consuming media, and you as a have resulted in increased average time spent in front of
media company are expected to deliver that” (Interview video. ”Earlier we were bound to use the computer or
G). A barrier to the demand to exist on all platforms that television, now it is more flexible and it is easy to bring
was highlighted was the cost issue, today it is costly and the video with you. When we get a little better Internet
time consuming to exist everywhere since all platforms connection we can truly watch video unlimited”
requires different applications. According to the experts (Interview A). Here follows the identified trends within
this is expected to change. “In the future I think it will be consumer behaviour.
more generic how to develop applications, today you need
to develop different apps for each platform, which is quite Embrace of the digitalization
demanding” (Interview F). An expected technology trend From the interviews, a frequently identified trend
is therefore the standardization of application regarding consumer behaviour was the adaptation to
programming within the TV industry. digital services. Consumers probably will continue to
embrace the digitalization and all the new possibilities it
Content discovery tools brings. How we consume media will proceed to change,
Another trend frequently brought up regarding technology the trend shown in the statistics about the TV year 2014
was the management of content. Regarding content the from MMS [2], stated that linear television decreased in
common opinion was that it ought to be one of the most watching time with 4% and online television increased by
important factors that steer consumer behaviour. The 21% - and this is just the beginning. “We are moving
interviews also stated that the available selection of towards a time when all key content
will exist on multiple
content will increase. As the amount of content and platforms, satellite, terrestrial, cable TV and all the
services increases the technology needs to adapt and digital solutions” (Interview B). This could give the
create new smarter ways to find the right content at the consumers even more freedom to freely chose content,
right time. ”When talking about content we can’t only viewing situations and payment models. ”The winners of
look at the physical available content, we also need to the development is the consumers, it’s they who benefits
think of what we perceive as accessible, since it’s the from the changes” (Interview H). The choices are within
content we believe to be accessible that direct our the consumers’ power, from the pick and mix-behaviour,
consumption” (Interview H). This is supported by a report a content chasing habit is starting to emerge, especially
from Ericsson where they state that enhanced search tools when it comes to VOD services. Consumers chose the
with more personalized recommendations will come in service that satisfy their needs right now and switch
the near future. ”As the volume of TV and video material service if they would like to see something that they can
increases, smart and personal recommendations from not access from their existing service. “The consumers
social networks are becoming an important source for are starting to chase content, not many services requires
discovering and exploring new content. [3]” The you to sign up during a specific time, what is happening is
interviews also showed that existing solutions are not rather that the consumer signs up for HBO one month to
sufficient and that they have to advance within the watch Game of thrones and the next month he or she
coming years. On claim is that it is far from as efficient to signs up for Netflix in order to watch House of cards.
search for video content, as it is for text-based content. If What we are seeing is the consumers changing to a
search functions and discovery tools do not advance, it transaction behaviour” (Interview F).
could be complicated to find the content you are looking
for as the amount of content increases. ”If any actor could On the other hand, a couple of barriers that is slowing
launch a search engine that could guide us among motion down this transition were identified in the interviews. The
pictures as well as within text based content it would most significant one were the fact that people are habit
make a lot of video content seem more available” creatures; it takes some time to accept new technology
(Interview H). The interviews also suggest that and change behaviour. ”People want to test new things
technology will develop to give better and more but they are rooted in their habits which delays the digitalshift”(Interview H). The interviews suggest that people since watching video requires high focus. It is much more
adapt to technology and new services at different pace, common to do other things while consuming TV i.e. play
but technology keeps evolving. “I don’t see any games, answer mails or use social media. Second screen
technology barriers that we will not solve, the obstacle behaviour is taking up a larger portion of our viewing
rather is the consumers’ ability to embrace the technology time (See figure 6), 36% out of the time spent watching
development” (Interview E). However we have seen signs traditional TV is spent in front of more than one screen
that the mass is starting to change viewing behaviour as [21]. “People do a lot when watching television, like surf
well. According to the interview D, the reason that the the web, browse through a magazine or have dinner”
industry is opening up to the mainstream mass, is that the (Interview A). The second screen behaviour was
technology as well as the services have matured. The discussed in several interviews. The conclusion was that
technology will become more accessible and appealing to the behaviour amplifies the view that a device just is a
a larger audience. Even the late adopters are becoming screen that enables the possibility to watch the content
advanced users and now when the mass is adopting we that you want. ”We are starting to think of the TV as a
can expect the transformation to go fast. “We have screen, a big but dumb screen that provides a good
definitive leaved the early adopters phase, it is not only experience that is easily shared with others, we do not
the people with technology interest that buys movies associate the screen with a specific content in the same
digitally, we have reached pretty far in to the bend shape extent as before” (Interview D). The different screens are
curve” (Interview E). According to the interviewed used in different situations and different purposes. ”It is
experts, the mass adoption to the digital viewing not always one screen that is better than the other, the
behaviour will have an impact at the media measurements consumer is directing their attention towards the screen
the coming years. “The average time spent watching with the right content to satisfy their needs in that
television will continue to increase since not everybody is moment” (Interview H). All interviewed indicated that the
using the new platforms yet” (Interview B). Another topic preferred screen still is going to be the big traditional TV
that was emphasized in the interviews was the generation screen, especially if you are going to watch something
issue. Media consumption and media habits are linked to with others or if the content requires high quality, for
generational aspects. ”Television viewing is based on example an action movie, live events or sports. ”If you
personal choices, some people watch broadcasted are at home and you are going to watch something for a
television and others watch television online, it is while I believe that you as a consumer prefer the bigger
partially a generation issue. It is related to the habit of screen with the best quality and the best sound”
using different platforms and the habit of being able to (Interview A). The fact that the TV screen will continue
make your own choices” (Interview C). The reason that to have a central part in our lives in five years was widely
was accentuated was the fact that younger people have recognized among the interviews. ”The traditional
grown up with another mind-set and a habit of using television has a great social capacity but it is changing, I
technology. The younger generations are going to set new do not believe it will fade out entirely. Certain content
standards on how we think of motion pictures. like live broadcasted programs or specific movies will
“Adolescents and young people are much more mobile in still gather the whole family around the TV” (Interview
their consumption behaviour and they have shorter span D).
of attention” (Interview G). The fact that younger people
are more frequent users of VOD and online video services However a shared view was that it is not always possible
is also confirmed by the statistics from the MMS study to use the big screen, it could be because someone else
[2]. uses it or that you want to watch something when you go
to bed. “… Nowadays we solve it by taking our own
Social television device and sit down wherever in the home or on the couch
A consequence of the digitalization that was raised in with other family members but with headphones”
several interviews was the change of social aspects. The (Interview D). It was not only the social aspect within the
emerging behaviour, such as second screen and binge same location that was raised during the interviews, but
watching, make us question the traditional TV sofa. also the concept of binge watching. When content
”What does it mean to watch together? When we are providers like Netflix release all the episodes of one
sitting together in the sofa but watching different content season at once it encourage consumers to binge watch.
on different screens? Or watching the same content at the Naturally this results in some people watching the whole
same time but from different locations? (Interview H). season at once and some people watching one episode
The common view was that the TV sofa will continue to every other week. This opens up for a shared experience
be a meeting point in the home, but what is changing is over space, the possibility to watch a series at the same
where the attention is directed. A family can be gathered pace as other people without being in the same place.
in the sofa in front of the TV but where the attention is Thanks to the Internet, a shared experience can be created
directed can be scattered. The amount of screens within a group of people without them actually knowing
competing for your attention has increased and according each other. ”The window for a shared TV experience is
to a study from Sifo [21] the attention directed towards widen over time … during two weeks House of cards
the traditional TV screen is shrinking. It is not that season three was a shared experience amongst the
common to watch more than one video at the same time viewers even though some people watched all theepisodes the first weekend and some still have not seen time, if ever before Netflix would sell early access
them all ” (Interview C). The reason for this is that online of House of Cards to any other provider” (Interview D).
communities connect viewers from anywhere in the world Because of the exclusive rights to own produced material
with each other. ”The physical TV couch has been Netflix, and similar providers, can attract subscribers who
affected in multiple ways, … if you are the only want access to the specific content they can not access
Star Trek fan in your home you can find others online anywhere else.
with whom it is much more relevant to share the social
experience” (Interview D) Since watching video will Aggregating services
become more digitalized and online, the evolving social The flourishing market with multiple services and options
experience will continue to have an impact on how social is becoming more and more complicated, hence several
viewing will be defined. interviews lifted the possibility of a future service
aggregator. “The aggregation is still not completely
5.2.3 New business concepts trends solved. You have two universes, de old managed universe,
In several interviews it was revealed that an important which basically is everything you can control with your
factor for how we are going to consume media in five old TV remote. You also have the new universe with a lot
years is how the market will evolve. As the technology of new services distributed via OTT providers such as
develops and consumer demand is changing the market is Netflix or HBO” (Interview D). Since more and more
opening up for new opportunities. The increased people pay for more than one service [26], the more
complexity on the market is affecting the consumers. complicated it is for the consumer to get an overall picture
”Almost everybody has a traditional television but with of what exists within each service. ”What the consumers
all the new option it becomes more unusual to sign up on want is the best of those two worlds, all in one easy-to-use
expensive TV packages. The TV landscape is quite experience, but still personalizable and flexible”
complicated, which leads to consumers having a hard (Interview D). A common opinion was that the
time choosing. What is Tivo? What is Apple TV? How do aggregation has a long way to go regarding ease-of-use
they work? What can I access with a Smart TV?” and availability of compelling content, but trends suggest
(Interview F). The plethora of services and options is that this is where the market is heading.
mostly stimulating but it also leaves the consumers in a
perplexing situation.
6. DISCUSSION
Changing value chain
The trend that content providers distribute their own The purpose of this thesis was to study how video
material was touched upon in several interviews. The consumption will take shape in 2020 by identifying
opinion was that it is especially common online, almost viewing situations based on consumer motives and to
all the TV channels develop comprehensive play channels identify trends that will affect consumer behaviour. The
to be able to distribute their content without going study is based on two parts. The study resulted in three
through traditional distributors. “HBO is an example of identified viewing situations; social viewing, engaged
content that is very desirable. The traditional TV bundles viewing and background viewing. The relevant trends
used to “force” consumers to pay for the largest channel from the interviews were grouped in three areas;
package packages just to be able to get hold of that technology, consumer behaviour and new business
specific content, today you can have HBO Nordic and get concepts. Here follows an analysis of how the trends can
access to that content without the other channels” affect consumer behaviour in the identified viewing
(Interview D). This is a trend that, according to the situations.
interviewed, will grow in the future. As more services
direct their products directly towards the end-consumer, 6.1 Mapping trends and viewing situations
the media value chain is continuing to transform. A
driving idea is to get the consumer to stay within your 6.1.1 General effects
service without feeling the need to use other services. Technology ought to enable many changes but will
Actors within the value chain are starting to operate after probably not be an invincible obstacle for further
the motto: “If I, as a media company, provide everything development. The continuous digitalization and the
within my universe perhaps nobody need to look outside” technology advance are assumed to facilitate the
(Interview D). The interviews emphasised that movement between different platforms and services.
collaborations will be of greater importance in the coming When you can move more seamlessly between the
years. One example of collaborations that are being made platforms and screens the television might no longer be
is between TV providers and OTT services who are trying viewed as the primary screen and but rather just one of
to attract and retain consumers by collaborating and add the screens. Which screen you choose will not be as
value. ”It will become increasingly important to create connected to what need state you want to fulfil but rather
collaborations” (Interview A). Another difference in the to what screen that is available in the moment. Since
value chain that will continue to grow is the trend of different platforms appeal to different needs, this trend
producing own content, like Netflix is doing in order to could help consumers to satisfy their needs and fulfil
offer the consumers a unique value. “It will take a long gratifications easier.If people in a larger extent start to chase content, it will and fulfil the social gratification, while using different
probably result in less loyal customers. According to the screens.
interviewed experts, if a media company does not keep up
with the advancement in terms of technology, content or When content discovery tools become more intelligent,
price points, the consumers will seek alternative services. they can also include a social aspect, where users can
Consumers are taking larger control over their media share and take part of others favourites, no matter
consumption; they want to consume video on their own platform. Social recommendations can make you feel
terms. Forcing restrictions, such as regional access or more connected to friends both in the sense that you are
technological limitations, could also lead to a risk of watching the same content but also because it make
consumers switching services. It could be difficult to be ground for conversation. This study suggests that you will
an omni-platform that provides everything from great TV be able to share a social experience and feel connected to
shows to the latest movies and news programs without friends or even celebrities who share their personal
aggregating other companies’ material. If an aggregator is favourites.
successfully created it could give consumers a better
overview over their services and existing content. An 6.1.3 Engaged viewing
aggregator could also ensure easy access to all your More personalized experiences and tailored
services from one entry-point. The aggregator could be a recommendations are especially important when coming
base for hybrid viewing, a platform with a single interface to the state of indulgence or escapism. When seeking to
that seamlessly integrates linear, catch-up and VOD. If all satisfy these gratifications it is all about “me-time” and
the content you had access to would be gathered in one therefore especially important to view your personal
platform, it would make the content seem more available. favourites. One aspect of this is that TV and video
Other trends that could have the same impact are a more subscriptions are assumed to evolve and focus more on
precise search functions and better content discovery the individual, by going from household-based accounts
tools. More tailored recommendations, that combine to individual-based accounts. This will help consumers
previous consumption patterns with situational aspects organize and keep track of their personal favourites.
could lead to the consumer perceiving the available
content more relevant and fitting for each situation and The multiscreen trend, ought to facilitate the personal
need. viewing situations, it could make the “me-time” more
accessible no matter the situation, when all content exists
6.1.2 Social viewing on all platforms. The larger amount of content and the
The extended TV sofa ought to help customers connect growing trend to binge watch could lead to people being
over distance and time in a larger extent, the social aspect, more selective when choosing what to watch. A
will not be limited to the same space. The definition of consequence could be that people follow fewer TV shows
viewing together will, according to this study, expand to but really devour in their favourite show, watching
include various situations; such as consumers connecting multiple episodes back-to-back. This will probably
through online platforms like social media and two prolong the engaged viewing sessions.
friends watching a series at the same pace but not in the
same space. As the viewing landscape becomes more 6.1.4 Background viewing
fragmented, social experiences connected to the program The viewing behaviour with the motive of relaxing or
could make people feel like a part of something larger routine viewing is assumed to persist fairly similar as
than their living room couch. Via multiscreen storytelling, today. The reason for this is that linear television is well
companies can engage consumers on all platforms and equipped to satisfy the need of casual and passive
devices, and make people feel more included and viewing. People understand what types of programs that
connected to each other. One example of that could be a are broadcasted during a specific time on different
football game; when watching a match, you can bet channels. This is one of the reasons why linear TV excels
against other people, look at the after talk, and even re- to meet the needs when the goal is to unwind when
play the same game on your game console after the match coming home from work. If the advanced search and
is over. On several of these additional platforms, you have content discovery tools can bring the same simplicity to
the possibility to connect with other people, either friends VOD platforms, it would give consumers an alternative
or people you do not know. The social viewing will source to satisfy the same need state. Some people do not
probably become more like an event with storylines tied want to pick and choose and if they are not in the mood
together. for the shows broadcasted, VOD could generate a playlist
from their favourite VOD shows. Better content
Another thing that affects the social perspective is when recommendations could eliminate the browsing process
people gather in the same space but use different devices. and make VOD to a convenient platform for this viewing
A family could gather together in the sofa, but instead of situation. This could lead to consumers who seek a
everybody watching the same program their attention is relaxing video experience firstly rely on recommendation
directed towards different content. The content they engines rather than relying on broadcasted program
engage in could be video while others engage in social blocks. But even if VOD services advance to better
media or play games. They still keep each other company gratify background viewing, people are set in their habitshence it will probably take time until the behaviour is 7. CONCLUSION
fully embraced. In the thesis it has been examined how consumer
behaviour could evolve until 2020. The result showed that
6.2 Choice of method broadcasted linear television probably will continue to
As mentioned in the beginning of this paper the exact remain an important part of video consumption even
future is impossible to determine. There are a lot of actors though the usage of OTT services ought to increase.
within the television industry and there are many different Broadcasted television is expected to be used for
views of how the future will take shape. The chosen background viewing and for live events in a larger extent
method aims to gather an overall picture by compiling the than today, while VOD is assumed to approach a role as a
distinctive approaches to get a picture of what the video customizable service that satisfy personal needs. The
consumption can look like in 2020. Since the future is consumer behaviour will probably evolve the most in the
uncertain, interviewing other actors could have lead to a social viewing situation, the reason for that is firstly
slightly different result. However, the final trends did because the definition of social television is extending.
reappear in several interviews and were singled out on Secondly, because the technology advance will help us
frequency, therefore would a change in interviewed feel connected both over space and time. Another aspect
companies probably not vary the result in a large extent. that is expected to be an important factor in 2020 is the
engaged viewing behaviour. People ought to be more
One aspect regarding the execution of the method that has prone to binge watch their favourite shows, which could
to be considered is the choice of interviewees. Eight make the engaged viewing a larger part of their total
companies were interviewed within the areas; TV- video consumption. The viewing behaviour in the
providers and VOD services, Technology providers, background viewing situation, will probably not change
Broadcasting companies and media strategy companies. fundamentally in the next five years. Mainly since it is a
The spread of companies helped to gather different routine behaviour that is deeply rooted in linear
perspectives but was unfavourable in the sense that the television. Another reason is the importance of simplicity;
result within each area was not generalizable for the the background viewing situation is characterized by few
whole market. Another aspect is that the interviews only choices and ease-of-use. Even if VOD services could
were conducted with one person from each company, the evolve to better satisfy the need to unwind and relax,
trends could have been more thoroughly investigated, if people are habit creatures and it would take time until the
several persons within the same organization were mass have adopted this behaviour. Many of the identified
interviewed. However, the information gathered was trends are likely to evolve in the predicted direction, even
sufficient enough to get reliable trends. Eight interviews so there are several unforeseeable uncertainties, that could
resulted in a good amount of data and the discussed trends alter the future of consumer behaviour.
were recurring in many of the interviews. The potential
effect the trends can have on each viewing situation was
interpreted by the writer, if someone else would have
done the analysis the material might have been interpreted
differently. Nonetheless, several of the expected effects
can be identified in literature [3] [27] [28], which to some
extent ensures the relevance. The purpose to investigate
how viewing behaviour could appear in 2020 has been
accomplished, nevertheless there are several more
perspectives that were not included in this thesis and
could be subject for further research.
6.3 Future research
To further verify the result of this thesis, a study that
confirms the identified viewing situations could be of
interest. This study has not included the consumers, who
are of high interest, thus it would be interesting to do a
qualitative and a quantitative study with consumers, to
determine their viewing habits and make the results
generalizable. In this thesis the legislation and other
restrictions were not considered, but during the interviews
it was repeatedly brought up as an important factor of
how the TV industry will change. Therefor it would be
essential to research how media legislation is developing
and how it affects the industry.You can also read
