2012 ELECTION LATINO OPPORTUNITIES IN CONGRESS - A PROFILE OF LATINO CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATES AND OPPORTUNITY AND INFLUENCE DISTRICTS
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2012 ELECTION
LATINO OPPORTUNITIES IN CONGRESS
A PROFILE OF LATINO CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATES
AND
OPPORTUNITY AND INFLUENCE DISTRICTS
National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) Educational FundINTRODUCTION
In Election 2012, Latinos are poised to again play a key role in shaping the nation’s political landscape. Latino candidates are
demonstrating that they can successfully pursue seats in both chambers of Congress. In the U.S. Senate, where Democrats
hold a narrow partisan advantage, Latino candidates from both political parties are attempting to either help the Democrats
strengthen their position or help the Republicans secure the lead. In the U.S. House of Representatives, Latinos are running
in 12 states across the nation. This Election Profile focuses on key congressional races involving Latino candidates in Election
2012.
Latinos in the U.S. Senate: Former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz (R) has excellent prospects of making history by winning
his race against former State Rep. Paul Sadler (D) to become the first Latino to represent Texas in the U.S. Senate. In Arizona,
former Surgeon General Richard Carmona (D) will face U.S. Rep. Jeff Flake (R) in a competitive contest. If both Cruz and
Carmona are victorious, the number of Latinos in the U.S. Senate will double from two to four.
Latinos in the U.S. House of Representatives: The number of Latinos in the U.S. House of Representatives is extremely likely
to increase from 24 to 27, and could increase to as many as 31. Five Latinos who have excellent prospects of being elected to
the U.S. House for the first time include:
• Los Angeles City Councilmember Tony Cardenas (D), who would become the first Latino U.S. Representative from
Southern California’s San Fernando Valley area (29th congressional district);
• Texas State Rep. Joaquin Castro (D), who is running in the San Antonio area (20th congressional district);
• Former Bernalillo County Commissioner Michelle Lujan Grisham (D), who is running in New Mexico’s Albuquerque
area (1st congressional district);
• California State Senator Juan Vargas (D), who is running in a district that encompasses parts of three counties in the
southernmost part of the state (51st congressional district); and
• Attorney Filemon Vela, Jr. (D), who is running in a newly-created district in South Texas that extends north from the Gulf
Coast up to Gonzales County (34th congressional district).
In one of the most competitive Congressional races in the nation, incumbent U.S. Rep. Francisco “Quico” Canseco (R) is
being challenged by Texas State Rep. Pete Gallego (D) in Texas’ 23rd congressional district.
The Profile also includes a state-by-state description of the key congressional races involving Latino candidates (an analysis of
the growing number of Latinos running for state offices will be published in the future as Election Day approaches).
On page 6, the Profile sets forth a table, which includes the number of Latino candidates for congressional offices, and
potential Latino electoral gains in each state.
CONGRESSIONAL OPPORTUNITY AND INFLUENCE DISTRICTS
During the 2011-2012 ongressional redistrictings, the Latino community actively advocated for districts that would provide
Latinos with a strong opportunity to determine the outcome of or influence elections. Many different entities were involved in
drawing lines, including state legislatures, independent commissions, and courts. As a result of such factors as partisan politics
and barriers to full Latino participation in the redistricting process, no state produced a congressional map that provided optimal
Latino electoral opportunities. Starting on page 7, this Profile highlights and presents maps of seven new or newly-reconfigured
opportunity and influence districts.
2 NALEO Educational FundARIZONA
U.S. Senate
Former Surgeon General Richard Carmona (D) is facing U.S. Rep. Jeff Flake (R) in a competitive contest to succeed retiring
U.S. Sen. Jon Kyl (R). Because the results of this race could change the partisan representation of Arizona in the U.S. Senate,
both parties are watching it closely.
U.S. House of Representatives
Incumbent U.S. Rep. Raul Grijalva (D) has excellent prospects of emerging victorious in his 3rd congressional district re-election
race. Incumbent U.S. Rep. Ed Pastor (D) is likely to win his 7th congressional district re-election contest.
CALIFORNIA
U.S. House of Representatives
California’s June 2012 primary was the first held under the state’s new “top two” primary system. For the Congressional, state
legislative and statewide offices, all candidates running in the primary election – regardless of their party preference – appear
on a single primary election ballot, and people can vote for any candidate. The top two overall vote-getters (not the top vote-
getter from each political party) move on to the November general election. On the ballot, candidates can list their affiliation
with a political party or indicate “No Party Preference” (NPP). As a result, two candidates from the same political party may
face each other in the general election.
All six of California’s incumbent Latino U.S. Representatives are running for re-election. Five face no significant opposition
in their re-election bids: Democrats Xavier Becerra (34th congressional district), Grace Flores Napolitano (32nd congressional
district), Lucille Roybal-Allard (40th congressional district), Linda Sánchez (38th congressional district), and Loretta Sánchez
(46th congressional district). U.S. Rep. Joe Baca (D) is facing a competitive challenge from State Senator Gloria Negrete
McLeod (D) in the 35th congressional district.
Two open-seat contests in new Latino opportunity districts that were drawn during the state’s redistricting are very likely to send
new Latinos to Congress. (An “opportunity district” generally refers to one which provides Latinos with a strong opportunity
to determine the outcome of the election.) Los Angeles City Councilmember Tony Cardenas (D) has excellent prospects of
becoming the first Latino U.S. Representative from Southern California’s San Fernando Valley in his 29th congressional district
bid. In California’s 51st congressional seat, the southernmost district in the state which spans the U.S.-Mexico border, State
Senator Juan Vargas (D) faces no serious opposition in his contest.
Three Latinos are also in particularly competitive contests to unseat California incumbents. In the 10th congressional district,
astronaut and engineer Jose Hernandez (D) is facing U.S. Rep. Jeff Denham (R). Former Lt. Governor Abel Maldonado (R) is
challenging U.S. Rep. Lois Capps (D) in the 24th congressional district. In the 36th congressional district, Dr. Raul Ruiz (D) is
attempting to unseat U.S. Rep. Mary Bono Mack (R). Because the results of these races could change the partisan representation
of the districts, both political parties are paying close attention to the outcome.
Latinos who face tougher races include small business advocate John Hernandez (D) who is running against State
Assemblymember David Valadao (R) in the 21st congressional district, and Bob Flores (D), who is challenging U.S. Rep.
Maxine Waters (D) in the 43rd congressional district.
2012 Election Profile - Congressional Opportunities 3FLORIDA U.S. Senate Incumbent U.S. Senator Marco Rubio (R) is not up for re-election. U.S. House of Representatives Incumbent U.S. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) has excellent prospects of being re-elected in the 27th congressional district, and U.S. Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R) is running unopposed in the 25th congressional distict. The most competitive congressional contest involving Latino candidates in the state is the 26th district re-match between U.S. Rep. David Rivera (R) and Joe Garcia (D), who formerly served as Executive Director of the Cuban American National Foundation and as a member of the Obama Administration. In 2010, Rivera defeated Garcia by 10 percentage points; according to political observers, after redistricting, the district is slightly less favorable to Republicans. Retired Air Force Colonel Evelio “EJ” Otero (R) faces a tough contest in his 14th congressional district bid to unseat incumbent U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor (D). IDAHO U.S. House of Representatives Incumbent U.S. Rep. Raul Labrador (R) has excellent prospects of being re-elected in the state’s 1st congressional district. ILLINOIS U.S. House of Representatives Incumbent U.S. Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D) is very likely to win his re-election bid in the 4th congressional district. MINNESOTA U.S. House of Representatives Tony Hernandez (R) is facing an uphill fight in his 4th congressional district bid to unseat incumbent U.S. Rep. Betty McCollum (D). NEVADA U.S. House of Representatives In a race being watched closely by both political parties, Nevada Speaker of the Assembly John Oceguera (D) is battling freshman U.S. Rep. Joe Heck (R) in the 3rd congressional district. Political observers note that the district’s predecessor before redistricting was a “swing” district, which sent both Democrats and Republicans to Congress, and that the newly-configured district will be one as well. NEW JERSEY U.S. Senate New Jersey’s Latino U.S. Senator, Robert Menendez (D) is likely to emerge victorious in his re-election bid. U.S. House of Representatives Incumbent U.S. Rep. Albio Sires (D) has excellent prospects of re-election in the 8th congressional district. 4 NALEO Educational Fund
NEW MEXICO
U.S. House of Representatives
Incumbent U.S. Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D) has excellent prospects of emerging victorious in his 3rd congressional district re-election bid.
He is likely to be joined in Congress by former Bernalillo County Commissioner Michelle Lujan Grisham (D), who is running in
the Albuquerque area 1st congressional district open-seat contest against former State Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones (R) to succeed
U.S. Rep. Martin Heinrich (D), a candidate for U.S. Senate.
Business executive Evelyn Madrid Enhard (D) faces a tough battle in her 2nd congressional district bid to unseat incumbent
U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce (R).
NEW YORK
U.S. House of Representatives
Both incumbent Latino Members of Congress - Democrats Nydia Velazquez (7th district) and Jose E. Serrano (15th district) -
are likely to win their re-election bids.
TEXAS
U.S. Senate
Former Texas State Solicitor General Ted Cruz (R) is likely to make history as the state’s first Latino U.S. Senator. Cruz has
excellent prospects of victory in his battle against former State Rep. Paul Sadler (D) to win the seat formerly held by retiring U.S.
Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison (R).
U.S. House of Representatives
Three of Texas’ Latino incumbents have good prospects of winning their re-election bids: Henry Cuellar (D - 28th district),
Bill Flores (R - 17th district), and Ruben Hinojosa (D - 15th district). In what political observers believe to be the state’s most
competitive congressional race, incumbent U.S. Rep. Francisco “Quico” Canseco (R) is facing a 23rd district challenge by State
Rep. Pete Gallego (D).
Two Latinos are likely to emerge victorious in open-seat races: State Rep. Joaquin Castro (D), who is running in the San
Antonio-area 20th district contest to succeed retiring U.S. Rep. Charlie Gonzalez (D); and attorney Filemon Vela, Jr. (D), who
is running in the newly-created South Texas 34th district.
Three Latinos face tougher contests throughout the state. Small businessowner Barbara Carrasco (R) is battling former El Paso
City Councilmember Beto O’Rourke (D), in the strongly Democratic 16th district race to succeed U.S. Rep. Silvestre Reyes (D),
who was defeated in the primary. David Sanchez (D) faces an uphill challenge in his 26th district contest against incumbent
U.S. Rep. Michael Burgess (R). Rose Meza Harrison (D), an Assistant County Attorney in Nueces County, will have a difficult
bid to unseat incumbent U.S. Rep. Blake Farenthold (R) in the 27th district.
WASHINGTON
U.S. House of Representatives
Incumbent U.S. Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) has excellent prospects for victory in her 3rd district bid for re-election.
2012 Election Profile - Congressional Opportunities 5U.S. SENATE
The following table sets forth for each state: the number of Latinos currently serving in the U.S. Senate, the number of Latino
candidates running for U.S. Senate, the potential net gain or loss of Latino seats, and the potential composition of the U.S.
Senate after the November election. In determining the potential gain of Latino seats, the table projects that strongly competitive
Latino candidates will win their elections.
State Number of Latinos Currently Latino Candidates Potential Net Potential Number of
in U.S. Senate Gain/Loss Latinos After Election
DEM GOP DEM GOP DEM GOP DEM GOP
AZ 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0
FL 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
NJ 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0
TX 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1
Total 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 2
U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
The following table sets forth for each state: the number of Latinos currently serving in the U.S. House of Representatives, the
number of Latino candidates running for U.S. House, the potential net gain or loss of Latino seats, and the potential composition
of the U.S. House after the November election. In determining the potential gain of Latino seats, the table projects that strongly
competitive Latino candidates will win their elections.
State Number of Latinos Currently Latino Candidates Potential Net Potential Number of
in U.S. House Gain/Loss Latinos After Election
DEM GOP DEM GOP NPP* DEM GOP DEM GOP
AZ 2 0 2 1 0 0 0 2 0
CA 6 0 14 2 1 4 1 10 1
FL 0 3 1 4 0 0 0 0 3
ID 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
IL 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0
MN 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
NV 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0
NJ 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0
NM 1 0 3 0 0 1 0 2 0
NY 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 0
Assuming incumbent U.S. Rep. Francisco Canseco (R) wins in Texas CD 23
TX 4 2 7 5 0 0 0 4 2
WA 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
Total 17 7 32 16 1 6 1 23 8
Assuming challenger State Rep. Pete Gallego wins in Texas CD 23
TX 4 2 7 5 0 1 -1 5 1
WA 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
Total 17 7 32 16 1 7 0 24 7
*Candidates running in California’s “top-two primary system” are permitted to indicate “No Party Preference” on the ballot. See page 3 of
the Profile for further discussion of the system.
6 NALEO Educational FundCONGRESSIONAL OPPORTUNITY AND INFLUENCE DISTRICTS
The results of Census 2010 revealed that the increase in the U.S. Latino population during the last decade fueled the entire
nation’s population growth. The Latino population increase helped some states gain additional congressional seats during
reapportionment (such as Arizona, Florida, Nevada and Texas). In other states, Latino population growth enabled states such as
California to retain seats which they might have otherwise lost, or prevented even greater losses in states such as Illinois or New York.
The Latino community worked actively during the 2011-2012 redistrictings to ensure that congressional maps reflected the
growth of the Latino population. The Voting Rights Act of 1965 (VRA), which protects Latinos and other population groups
from discrimination in voting and elections, generally requires that districts at all levels of government must provide Latinos with
a fair opportunity to elect the candidates of their choice. Latino community members, advocates and litigators made compliance
with the VRA a top priority during their redistricting efforts.
This Profile highlights congressional districts created during the 2011-2012 redistrictings which provide Latinos with a strong
opportunity to determine the outcome of the election (“opportunity districts”). It also describes a new district where Latinos will
will be able to significantly influence the outcome of the election (“influence district”).
CALIFORNIA
California gained two new Latino congressional opportunity districts. The 29th is in Los Angeles’ San Fernando Valley, and the
51st district includes parts of San Diego, Riverside and Imperial Counties, and stretches along the U.S.-Mexico border.
The Latino community in the Northeast San Fernando Valley has a long history of advocating for their representation. The new
29th district includes predominantly Latino neighborhoods in the northern part of the San Fernando Valley that were removed
in the 2001 redistricting cycle when predominantly non-Latino areas were added to the southern part of the district. These
changes strengthened the non-Latino voter base of the incumbent representing the district. The new district has a Latino citizen
voting age population (LCVAP) of 50.7%; it brings together the predominantly Latino communities of the north and east San
Fernando Valley, and the predominantly non-Latino neighborhoods it contained in 2001 have generally been moved to other
districts.
Stevenson Ranch CA Stevenson Ranch CA Stevenson Ranch CA
126
126
126
5
5
5
14
14
14
210
210
210
San Fernando CA San Fernando CA San Fernando CA
118
118
118
5
5
5
405
405
405
210
210
210
La Crescenta-Montro La Crescenta-Montro La Crescenta-Montro
170
La Cañ
170
La Cañ
170
La Cañ
Burbank CA Burbank CA Burbank CA
Glendale CA
2 Glendale CA
2
Glendale CA
2
5
5
5
101
101
101
134
134
134
101
101
101
405
405
405
Los Angeles CA Los Angeles CA Los Angeles CA
opanga CA opanga CA opanga CA
West Hollywood CA West Hollywood CA West Hollywood CA
110
110
Beverly Hills CA
110
Beverly Hills CA Beverly Hills CA
5
5
5
1991 2001 2011
2012 Election Profile - Congressional Opportunities 7CALIFORNIA, continued
The 51st district, in the southernmost part of the state, stretches along the U.S.-Mexico border from Imperial Valley to San Diego.
The district encompasses all of the communities along California’s international border and has an LCVAP of 51%.
n Bernardino CA Twentynine Palms CA
215
Redlands CA
62
doux CA
Desert Hot Springs CA
erside CA Beaumont CA
oodcrest CA
111
10
95
Mead Valley CA
Perris CA Palm Springs CA
Hemet CA Indio CA
Menifee CA Coachella CA
La Quinta CA
Wildomar CA
10 Blythe CA
Murrieta CA Mecca CA
Temecula CA
15
Fallbrook CA
Oceanside CA
Vista CA
Carlsbad CA
Encinitas CA Ramona CA
Poway CA Brawley CA
5
805
86
Alpine CA Imperial CA
San Diego CA
La Mesa CA El Centro CA
8
95
La Presa CA
8
National City CA Calexico CA
Chula Vista CA
Imperial Beach CA
FLORIDA
As a result of Florida’s rapid population growth over the last decade, the state gained two additional congressional districts after
reapportionment. Latinos were largely responsible for the state’s growth, accounting for 55% of the total population increase.
One of the new districts is the 9th district, in Central Florida, which is based in Osceola County. This is a new Latino influence
district with a 41% Latino voting age population (LVAP).
ALTAMONTE SPRINGS
46
91S
4 406
441
426
19
91
PINE HILLS
434 TITUSVILLE
50
408
405
ORLANDO
50
435
417
436
520
407
33
482
528
27
95
401
524
535
192
KISSIMMEE
MERRITT ISLA
1
4
404
17
A1A
557 509
518
192
MELBOURN
559
500
92B
92
507
441
91
PALM BAY
98B
95
60
27
27A
98
17
60
62
64
91
636
441
8 NALEO Educational FundNEW YORK
New York lost two congressional districts in the reapportionment process. The state’s overall population increased by 2%; in
contrast, the Latino community grew by 19.2%. During redistricting, a new Latino opportunity district (13th district) was
created in New York City, encompassing Northern Manhattan, which has a growing Dominican American community, East
Harlem and parts of the Bronx. The district has an LVAP of 52.7%.
4
9
87
908
93
80
9W
9A
95
PIP
907
1
Bronx
FORT LEE
BRP
1
95
9
895
501
95
907
87
278
9A
New York
907
TEXAS
Texas gained four congressional districts after reapportionment, the most of any state in the nation. Latinos were largely
responsible for Texas’ population increase, accounting for 65% of the state’s overall growth. Latino advocates and other groups
challenged the first congressional map approved by the Texas state legislature, in part because it violated the VRA and diluted
Latino voting strength. After protracted litigation, Texas will use an interim court-approved congressional map for the 2012
election cycle. There are nine opportunity districts in the interim map, and this Profile highlights three of them.
The 33rd congressional district is a new Latino opportunity district in northern Texas. The district stretches east to west in the
Dallas Fort-Worth area to include portions of Dallas and Tarrant counties. This district brings together two major metropolitan
areas, and its LVAP is 61.3%.
Grapevine
114B
190
635
289
35W
114
121
26
360
348
North Richland Hills
35E
Irving
Bedford
Euless
161
482 354
Hurst
S183
183
10
820
Haltom City
183
336
199
366S
121
820
12
4
Fort Worth
30
347
30
180
30
180
342
303
Arlington
303S
35E
Grand Prairie
408S
20
20
Duncanville
35W
20
360
Desoto
2012 Election Profile - Congressional Opportunities 9TEXAS, continued
Texas’ 35th congressional district is a new Latino opportunity district which brings together communities in the San Antonio and
Austin areas. The new district has an LVAP of 58.3%.
35
71
360
169
Austin
111
343
95
275
1
71
150
35
21
304
San Marcos
82
142
46
35
New Braunfels
10
10
46
10
123W
78
513
345
537
304
146
San Antonio
421
368
10
123
151
80
371
97
13
353
536
410 122
111
35
16
37
1604
97
Texas’ 34th congressional district is a newly-reconfigured opportunity district composed of most of the former 27th district and
part of the former 15th. The district unifies Latino communities along the Gulf Coast in Cameron County with communities to
the north in Gonzales County. The new district has an LVAP of 79%.
610
10
Pasadena
35
San Antonio
Del Rio
Galve
410 45
Victoria
35
37
Corpus Christi
Laredo
Mcallen
Brownsville
Latino Candidates and Latino Opportunity Districts
Political observers have noted that not all of the candidates running in the general election from Latino opportunity or influence
districts are Latino, and raise questions about the role such districts play in achieving increased Latino representation. Although
the presence of a Latino opportunity or influence district does not guarantee the election of a Latino, these districts provide a
critical opportunity for the Latino community to express their electoral preferences and choose accountable representatives.
Thus, non-Latinos running in these districts must generally address issues that are important to their Latino constituents if
they hope to win election. In many congressional primaries in opportunity and influence districts, non-Latinos sought to form
coalitions that included Latino community members, and actively pursued endorsements from Latino elected officials. In new
10 NALEO Educational FundLatino opportunity and influence districts, stronger Latino political infrastructures may also develop, providing Latino leaders
with greater access to funding, endorsements and other resources needed for viable campaigns. Thus, these new districts provide
a foundation for increased Latino representation in the future.
Finally, in order for the Latino community to fully realize the potential of congressional opportunity and influence districts, all
eligible Latinos must register to vote and cast ballots in congressional elections. Thus, the Latino community must continue to
pursue several complementary strategies to strengthen its voice in our nation’s democracy. These strategies include:
• effective naturalization promotion and assistance efforts to ensure that all eligible Latino legal permanent residents become
U.S. citizens;
• on-going voter registration and voter engagement campaigns;
• community moblization, advocacy and litigation activities to ensure fair redistrictings that fully comply with the
VRA;
• continued efforts to strengthen the network of Latino leaders who can run viable campaigns;
• advocacy to combat requirements that unfairly restrict Latinos’ access to registration and voting, such as photo identification
or proof of citizenship laws; and
• advocacy to secure full implementation of the provisions of the VRA that ensure that all Latino U.S. citizens can participate
in the electoral process even if they are not yet fully proficient in English.
As the congressional elections of 2012 approach, the Latino community will continue to actively pursue political empowerment
strategies and continue its journey toward full participation and representation in our nation’s democracy.
METHODOLOGY
In the tables presented on page 6, potential Latino gains and losses were calculated with reference to the number of Latino
incumbents running for re-election, and the number of Latino non-incumbent candidates in very competitive races. In determining
which Latino candidates were running in competitive races, we considered a variety of factors including the extent to which
candidates were challenging strong incumbents, the party registration of the district, campaign finance information, and
information obtained from local political observers. The number of Latino candidates includes all those we could identify
as running for congressional office, both incumbent and non-incumbent, and without reference to whether the candidates
were running in competitive races. Although we have made every effort to verify that candidates identified as Latino are of
Hispanic or Latino origin, it is possible that a small number of candidates have been misidentified and that we may have
included or excluded a few candidates incorrectly.
Generally, this Profile only discusses Latinos who are running either as Democrats or Republicans, unless the candidacy of an
Independent or third party-Latino will have a major impact on the outcome of the race in which the candidate is involved.
In order to determine whether districts were “opportunity” or “influence” districts, we considered a variety of factors, including
the LCVAP or LVAP of the district, depeding on which figure was publicly available for the state. Generally, for opportunity
districts, the LCVAP or LVAP was at least 50%. In addition, we took into account the demographics of other population
groups in the district, and other political factors. Generally, we classified districts as “influence” districts where there was an
LCVAP or LVAP which was at last 40% but less than 50%. While our approach to classifying “opportunity” and “influence”
districts uses concepts and factors that appear in case law interpreting the VRA, our classifications may not fully comport with the
legal classifications set forth in case law; in addition, the legal definitions of such districts continue to evolve in court decisions.
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