Analysts' Ideas of the Week - Gold Producer Raising $40M February 3, 2020

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Analysts' Ideas of the Week - Gold Producer Raising M February 3, 2020
Analysts' Ideas of the Week
             Gold Producer Raising $40M

                       February 3, 2020
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Analysts' Ideas of the Week - Gold Producer Raising M February 3, 2020
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                                         Mining / Exploration

Company                  Ticker                Current Share            FRC Fair Value             Date of PR:
Name:                    Symbol                Price:                   Estimate:
Gran Colombia            TSX: GCM              $5.43                    $6.49                      Jan-27-2020
Gold Corp.

PR Content                                                FRC Opinion
Announced a non-brokered private                          Positive – This financing is likely a result of
placement of up to $40 million by issuing                 the strong production results announced
7.14 million units at $5.60 per share.                    recently. 2019 production was 240 Koz (214
Each unit will consist of a common share                  Koz from Segovia and 26 Koz at Marmato),
and one full warrant at $6.50 per share (3                up 10% YoY and beat our estimate of 235
years).                                                   Koz. GCM is currently in the process of
                                                          completing a reverse takeover, and spin-out
                                                          of its Marmato project into a TSXV listed
                                                          company, to be renamed Caldas Gold
                                                          Corporation.

Company                  Ticker                Current Share            FRC Fair Value             Date of PR:
Name:                    Symbol                Price:                   Estimate:
Guyana                   TSXV: GYA             $0.07                    $0.33                      Jan-28-2020
Goldstrike Inc.

PR Content                                                FRC Opinion
Signed a definitive gold forward purchase                 Positive – Although the company is pre-
agreement for proceeds of up to US$9                      selling gold at US$300 per oz (US$9 million
million for the Marudi gold project in                    divided by 30 Koz gold), we feel this
Guyana. An initial payment of US$2                        transaction is positive for GYA for two
million is expected on or before April 14,                reasons - a) it is non dilutive to the
2020. In return, the company has agreed                   company’s share structure, and b) 30 Koz
to deliver a total of 30 Koz of gold                      only accounts for 10% of the current
(approximately 10% of the current                         resource. The company is planning to
resource), at 3 Koz per year, once Marudi                 commence a drill program and a US$9
is advanced to production or 3 years from                 million capital infusion will enable the
the initial payment, whichever is earlier.                company to advance the project without any
                                                          share dilution.

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Company                  Ticker                Current Share            FRC Fair Value             Date of PR:
Name:                    Symbol                Price:                   Estimate:
White Rock               ASX: WRM              A$0.005                   A$0.06                    Jan-29-2020
Minerals Ltd.

PR Content                                                FRC Opinion
Discovered two significant surface                        Positive – We expect the company to focus
geochemical anomalies (one gold and                       on the gold anomaly first; note that Alaska
one zinc-copper) at its 100% owned Red                    holds world class deposits such as Donlin
Mountain project in central Alaska.                       Creek and Pogo. Sandfire Resources NL
                                                          (ASX: SFR) is funding exploration. The
                                                          project already has an inferred resource of
                                                          16.7 Mt at 8.9% ZnEq, including a high-
                                                          grade portion of 9.1 Mt at 12.9% ZnEq.

Company                  Ticker                Current Share            FRC Fair Value             Date of PR:
Name:                    Symbol                Price:                   Estimate:
Sonoro Metals            TSXV: SMO             $0.135                   $0.32                      February-3-
Corp.                                                                                              2020

PR Content                                                FRC Opinion
Continuing discussions with China-based                   Positive – We were pleased to hear that
Engineering,        Procurement          and              the company has already entered into one
Construction companies and investors to                   MoU and three others are in negotiations.
finance a heap leach pilot operation at its               Note that the project is likely to be a low
Cerro Caliche project in Sonora, Mexico.                  CAPEX / OPEX project as a majority of the
SMO has already entered into one MoU,                     resource is highly oxidized, and potentially
and three additional MOUs are in                          amenable     to   open-pit     heap   leach
negotiations. SMO’s management was                        operations. Our models were based on an
planning to visit China this month for                    initial CAPEX of US$15 million.
follow-up meetings, but the trip is likely to
be rescheduled due to the current health
concerns related to the Coronavirus.
SMO has representatives in China who
will continue to advance discussions.

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                                          Special Situations

Company Name: Ticker                           Current Share            FRC Fair Value            Date of PR:
              Symbol                           Price:                   Estimate:
Voyageur        TSXV: VM                       $0.07                    $0.39                     February-3-
Pharmaceuticals                                                                                   2020
Ltd.

PR Content                                               FRC Opinion
Test results by SGS confirmed that VM’s                  Positive – This supports VM’s “From the
Frances Creek barium sulfate meets all                   Earth to the Bottle” business model to form
specifications under US Pharmacopeia                     a fully integrated pharmaceutical company.
(USP) guidelines.                                        Their business plan basically involves
                                                         mining their own minerals, processing those
                                                         minerals       into    active   pharmaceutical
                                                         ingredients, and manufacturing end-
                                                         products in the digital imaging / radiographic
                                                         healthcare space. By producing high quality
                                                         products at its Frances Creek project, the
                                                         company will have a significant ingredient
                                                         cost advantage over its competitors. VM is
                                                         currently awaiting Health Canada approvals
                                                         on its first set of products. 

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Company                 Ticker                Current Share            FRC Fair Value           Date of PR:
Name:                   Symbol                Price:                   Estimate:
Marble                  CSE: MRBL             $0.18                    $0.42                    January 30,
Financial Inc.                                                                                  2020
                                                                                                January 29,
                                                                                                2020

PR Content                                                FRC Opinion
Announced a $0.75 million debenture                       Positive – As of September 30, 2019, the
offering. The debentures have a one-year                  company reported a sufficient liquidity
term, accrue interest at a simple rate of                 position – a cash position of $2.75 million, a
12% per annum, and is payable quarterly.                  short-term debt position of $1.14 million and
Net proceeds from the offering will be                    a current ratio of 1.98x. We believe this
used to fund development costs of the                     debenture offering may signal that the
Marble Platform as well as general                        company has been deploying, or is
working capital and corporate purposes.                   expected to deploy, its cash position to
                                                          source additional loans.

Announced a partnership with Magical Positive – This partnership is expected to
Credit, a lender of short-term loans. help drive the number of loans that Marble
Magical Credit will market Marble’s Fast- sources.
Track credit rebuilding product on its
platform.

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                                                  Cannabis

Company                 Ticker                Current Share            FRC Fair Value           Date of PR:
Name:                   Symbol                Price:                   Estimate:
AgraFlora               CSE: AGRA             $0.09                    $0.38                    January 31,
Organics                                                                                        2020
International
Inc.

PR Content                                                FRC Opinion
Announced that construction of the Negative – It would appear that the facility’s
Winnipeg Edibles Facility is expected to earliest commercial operation date (with a
be completed in the next 60 days.        60-day construction lead time and the time
                                         required to receive the relevant licenses
                                         after construction is completed) is mid Q3-
                                         2020. In our initiating report, we had
                                         expected a commercial operation date of
                                         mid Q1-2020. With that in mind, this news
                                         has no impact on our valuation on the
                                         company. Our current valuation on
                                         AgraFlora is based on the company being a
                                         pure dried cannabis flower cultivator.

                                Weekly Cannabis Commentary

As a proxy for the performance of the cannabis market, we show the performances of
the:

      Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences Index ETF (TSX: HMMJ / “HMMJ”)
      Standard & Poor’s/MX International Cannabis Index (“MCAN”)
      Standard & Poor’s/TSX Cannabis Index (“XCAN”)

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            HMMJ                                    MCAN                                    XCAN
  Current                                 Current                                 Current
                       $8.76                                 $200.64                                 $199.64
   Price                                   Price                                   Price
  1-Week                                1-Week                                  1-Week
                      -0.01%                                  1.01%                                   -1.04%
Performance                           Performance                             Performance
  1-Year                                1-Year                                  1-Year
                     -59.88%                                    NM                                      NM
Performance                           Performance                             Performance
        Note: MCAN and XCAN was launched on November 18, 2019 and January 20, 2020, respectively.
                                         Source: TMX Money, FRC

Over the past week, the HMMJ, MCAN, and XCAN generated a return of -0.01%,
1.01%, and -1.04%, respectively. Performance of the cannabis market has remained
relatively unchanged on a week-over-week basis. The following are notable earnings
dates to keep in mind for the coming weeks:

               Company Name                                           Expected Earnings Date
            Aurora Cannabis Inc.                                              February 10
            Canopy Growth Corp.                                               February 13
              Cronos Group Inc.                                               February 11
                    Tilray Inc.                                               February 11
                   Hexo Corp.                                                   March 16
          CannTrust Holdings Inc.                                              February 4
    The Supreme Cannabis Co., Inc.                                            February 12
                                     Source: Earnings Whispers, FRC

This week, cannabis news was sparse, with one of the most notable headlines being
New Zealand’s announcement to hold a vote to legalize cannabis. Our discussion this
week, in addition to touching upon New Zealand’s vote to legalize cannabis, will be the
going concern problem faced by small/mid-sized cannabis companies.

New Zealand Vote to Legalize Cannabis
On January 28, 2020, the New Zealand government announced that its cannabis
referendum will be held on September 19, 2020 – the same time as its general election.
A ‘yes’ vote would allow cannabis for recreational and non-prescription therapeutic use.

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Currently, only medical cannabis is legal through a special permit or license. The
regulatory environment of New Zealand (“NZ”) is illustrated below.

                                        Source: Prohibition Partners

Recent polls have pointed to a majority of citizens supporting recreational legalization
(Source: Prohibition Partners). Shown below, the recreational cannabis market is
expected to hit a US$634.1 million valuation by 2028.

                                        Source: Prohibition Partners

We note that the forecasted recreational cannabis market in NZ is not expected to be
large. We believe that this is due to the small population of NZ (NZ has a population that
is approximately 1/10th that of Canada). Although we welcome news of the potential
legalization of recreational cannabis in NZ, the expected small market size is not

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likely to make NZ an extremely attractive cannabis market to establish operations
in.

With that said, the legalization of recreational cannabis in NZ may pave the way for
neighbouring countries to follow suit. As outlined below, recreational cannabis is
currently illegal in a vast majority of regions in Oceania.

                                        Source: Prohibition Partners

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Prohibition Partners has estimated the Oceania cannabis market could reach a
recreational cannabis market value of US$6.2 billion by 2028 – nearly 10x the expected
recreational cannabis market value of NZ. We speculate that cannabis companies
may enter the NZ recreational cannabis market as a means to target other, more
attractive, regions. Readers should note that this is a highly speculative point. We
currently do not have details regarding (1) if recreational cannabis will be legalized in
NZ, (2) how the NZ government plans to award cannabis licenses, and (3) export/import
regulations.

                                        Source: Prohibition Partners

Next, we touch on the going concern issue faced by many small/medium-sized
cannabis companies.

Going Concern Issue Faced by Cannabis Companies
As we have previously outlined, given the current state of the Canadian cannabis
market, we predicted that a number of small/medium-sized cannabis companies would
face a going concern issue.

On January 30, 2020, Sundial Growers Inc. (NASDAQ: SNDL) announced the
resignation of its Chief Executive Officer (“CEO”) and Chief Operating Officer (“CEO”).
Sundial went public on August 1, 2019, with a valuation of roughly $1 billion and has
since lost 84% in value.

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                                Share Price Performance of Sundial

                                                Source: Google

Cannabis companies that are inefficient in their business processes (according to
MarketWatch, Sundial faced numerous issues in regard to product quality and facility
infrastructure) are expected to face a tumultuous 2020. We reiterate our view that a
number of cannabis companies are going to face a going concern issue in the coming
quarters. To gauge which companies may face a going concern issue in the near-term,
readers can look for the following red flags:

   1. Weak liquidity position, characterized by a large amount of current debt and a
      relatively low cash position.

   2. Lack of a prominent or established sales channel, characterized by uncontracted
      sales channels.

   3. Lack of economies of scale, characterized by small-scale production capabilities.

   4. Lack of a dried cannabis flower conversion process (i.e. lack of an edibles
      manufacturing facility) – companies that are pure growers face the risk of having
      their products commoditized (resulting in lower margins and profitability).

   5. Weak management profile – senior management members that do not have
      strong track records in driving shareholder value are expected to have immense
      trouble navigating in a cannabis market that is unforgiving to unprofitable and
      inefficient companies.

   6. Operating losses with no near-term profitability in sight – contrary to a year ago
      where the main concern was how to raise capital to establish operations,
      investors are now looking past that and focusing on companies that are profitable
      on an operating basis (characterized by a positive EBIT).

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   7. Excessive CAPEX spending – companies that are still building out facilities for
      cultivation/processing/manufacturing are to be at a significant disadvantage to
      companies that already have established operations. In fact, numerous cannabis
      companies have announced the suspension of CAPEX to cut down on costs and
      drive operating efficiency.

Performance of Select Canadian LPs
The following shows the performance of select Canadian LPs on a year-to-date (“YTD”)
1-month, 6-months, and 1-year basis.

         Company Name                           YTD             1-Month           6-Months            1-Year
             Aphria Inc.                       -5.84%             -1.13%           -35.54%            -56.86%
        Aurora Cannabis Inc.                   1.14%              8.13%            -70.61%            -74.79%
        Canopy Growth Corp.                    9.84%             10.11%            -29.54%            -55.53%
         Cronos Group Inc.                     -0.63%             7.60%            -48.37%            -68.96%
             Tilray Inc.                       5.24%             11.35%            -59.19%            -79.22%
             Hexo Corp.                       -21.95%            -12.93%           -69.45%            -79.49%
       CannTrust Holdings Inc.                 10.48%            -10.46%           -52.92%            -86.50%
   Organigram Holdings Inc.                    9.84%             19.64%            -56.09%            -56.89%
The Supreme Cannabis Co., Inc.                -23.44%            -19.67%           -64.49%            -77.00%

            AVERAGE                            -1.70%             1.40%            -54.02%           -70.58%
                                                Source: Google

The average YTD, 1-month, 6-months and 1-year returns were -1.70%, 1.40%, -
54.02%, and -70.58%, respectively. On a YTD basis, notable poor performers were
Hexo Corp. (NYSE: HEXO) and The Supreme Cannabis Co., Inc. (TSX: FIRE).

        Hexo Corp.: Announced, on January 17, 2020, a US$20 million equity raise.
         This follows an equity raise back in December 2019 for US$25 million. Due to the
         dilutive effects of this type of financing, shares of Hexo have performed poorly on
         a YTD basis.

        The Supreme Cannabis Co., Inc.: Navdeep Dhaliwal, CEO of the company,
         departed the company on January 6, 2020. The reason for Mr. Dhaliwal’s

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       departure was not indicated. The company has appointed an interim CEO and is
       currently seeking a permanent replacement.

Valuation of Select Canadian LPs
The following shows the average Enterprise Value to Revenue (“EV/R”) that cannabis
companies are currently trading at. The companies used in the chart below are outlined
further below.

                                        Source: S&P Capital IQ, FRC

                                        Source: S&P Capital IQ, FRC

The average EV/R, as of February 3, 2020, was 13.1x – a slight decrease from an
average EV/R of 13.9x as of January 27, 2020. The average EV/R, from October 7,
2019 to date, is 15.7x. As a number of companies are not EBITDA positive, we have
refrained from tracking the average Enterprise Value to EBITDA (“EV/EBITDA”).

In the following, we provide commentary on Canadian retail cannabis pricing.

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Canadian Retail Cannabis Pricing

                            Source: Online Provincial Cannabis Store, FRC

Average retail price per gram increase slightly from $11.56 to $11.62 – a week-over-
week increase of 0.49%. The largest retail price per gram increases were witnessed in
the provinces/territories of British Columbia (of 9.01%) and Yukon (of 2.77%). This was
slightly offset by retail price per gram decreases in the provinces/territories of Nunavut
(of -4.06%) and New Brunswick (of -0.86%). Other provinces/territories had a nominal
increase/decrease in their retail price per gram. Although British Columbia (“B.C.”)
witnessed a large week-over-week increase in retail price per gram, we do note that the
number of available cannabis products in B.C. increased by 38% over the same period.
We believe the large price increase in B.C. was driven by greater higher-priced
products available for sale. We continue to reiterate our view that the average price
per gram will decrease over the long-term to combat the black market for cannabis.

There was no notable cannabis news across Canada this past week.

The below chart shows Canadian retail dried cannabis flower pricing since we began
price coverage.

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                         Source: FRC, Online Provincial Cannabis Store

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