AUD/USD Exchange Rate Outlook - Richard Grace Chief Currency and Rates Strategist & Head of International Economics +(612) 9117 0080 ...

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AUD/USD Exchange Rate Outlook - Richard Grace Chief Currency and Rates Strategist & Head of International Economics +(612) 9117 0080 ...
AUD/USD Exchange Rate Outlook

Richard Grace
Chief Currency and Rates Strategist & Head of International Economics
+(612) 9117 0080
richard.grace@cba.com.au

March 2015
Outlook for AUD/USD Exchange Rate

AUD/USD is likely to further depreciate to 0.7300 by end-June and 0.7000 by end-2015 for 5 reasons –

(1) Lower commodity prices - supply-driven declines in Australia’s commodity export prices, are applying
                             downward pressure to Australia’s terms of trade.

(2) Narrower Australia-US interest rate differentials – low global and Australian inflation, a weak domestic
                                                        economy and a terms of trade driven contraction in
                                                        Australia’s real gross domestic income is generating
                                                        downward pressure on Australian swap rates. At the
            AUD/USD EXCHANGE RATE                       same time, an improving US economy and guidance
     1.15                                   1.15
                                                        from the FOMC is generating mild upward pressure
                  Recent Ten-Year Average               on US short-term swap rates.
    1.00                         0.8864                         1.00

                                                                        (3) Slower Chinese growth, lower Asian inflation, rates and
    0.85                                                        0.85
                                                                            currencies, which are applying downward pressure.
    0.70                                                        0.70
                                                                        (4) A stronger USD – in response to a higher US terms of
           1983 - 2004 Average                                              trade, and the prospect of higher US interest rates.
    0.55          0.7040                                        0.55
                                          AUD /USD (rhs)

    0.40                                                         0.40
                                                                        (5) Cross-rate pressure - from a large USD bid in the global
       Dec-83          Oct-94             Aug-05           Jun-16           foreign exchange market.
                                                                             2
Importance of Global Growth Revisions Should Not be Underestimated

IMF revisions to global growth should be taken note of.

                                            3
Commodity Prices Lower – Led by Increases in Supply

Excess commodity supply is driving commodity prices lower, rather than soft demand.

              GLOBAL OIL BALANCE                                         GLOBAL MINING INVESTMENT
  %pa       (source: Energy Intelligence Group)         %pa
   8                                                     8         $US
                                                                   350
                                                                             (volumes, 1995 prices)
                                                                    bn

                                                                   280
                                    Globla Oil Supply
   4                                                      4
                Average                                            210

                                                                   140
   0                                                      0

                                 Global Oil Demand                 70         Developed markets

                                                                                                  Emerging markets
  -4                                                      -4        0
   Jan-04    May-06   Sep-08   Jan-11   May-13   Sep-15              1995    1998    2001         2004     2007

                                                               4
Commodity Prices Lower – Led by Increases in Supply

AUD being used as a proxy for lower commodity prices and because export prices falling.

                                                                   AUD/USD & AUSTRALIA'S
         OIL PRICE & RBA COMMODITY                                    TERMS OF TRADE
                 PRICE INDEX                           130                                                       1.15
   140                                           140
                                                                                   Australia
                 Brent Oil Price US$b                             Terms of Trade Index (lhs)
                         (lhs)
                                                       112                                                       1.01
   112                                           116

                                                        94                                                       0.87
    84                                           92

           RBA Commodity Price
          Index (SDR Terms) rhs                         76                                                       0.73
    56                                           68
                                                                                           AUD /USD (rhs)

                                                        58                                                       0.59
    28                                           44

                                                        40                                                       0.45
     0                                           20
                                                         Mar-00      Jul-03   Nov-06    Mar-10   Jul-13     Nov-16
     Jun-88 Jun-93 Jun-98 Jun-03 Jun-08 Jun-13

                                                       5
Lower Global Commodity Prices Impact Australia’s Terms of Trade

The Australian terms of trade effect is a major driver of interest rates and especially AUD

            AUSTRALIA GDP AND INCOME                                               AUSTRALIA GDP GROWTH
                    GROWTH                                              %
                                                                                             Annual % Change
                                                                                                                                %
5.0                                                       8.0

                                                                                          Domestic Demand
                                                                    8                                                           8

2.5                                                       6.0

                                                                                                                     GDP
                                                                    4                                                           4
0.0                                                       4.0

         Difference between
        Real Gross Domestic
       Income and Real GDP                                          0                                                           0
-2.5                                                      2.0
         Growth YoY% (lhs)

                               RBA Cash Rate (rhs)                            Net Exports (contribution)
-5.0                                                      0.0       -4                                                          -4
   Mar-02   Feb-05    Jan-08   Dec-10    Nov-13      Oct-16          Mar-00         Dec-03        Sep-07    Jun-11     Mar-15

                                                                6
Australian Unemployment Rate & RBA Cash Rate
Australia unemployment rate generally rises when employment growth is less than 2.0%

      AUSTRALIA LABOUR MARKET                                                  AUSTRALIAN EMPLOYMENT
          & RBA CASH RATE                                               6
8.4                                                           3.7           Total Employment Growth
                                                                            (YoY%) lhs
                                                                        5               If employment growth falls            6.6
                              Unemployment Rate                                            below 2.0% (YoY), the
7.0                          (Inverted Three Month            4.3                           unemployment rate
                              Moving Average) rhs                       4                      generally rises                6.2

5.6                                                           4.8       3                                                     5.7

                                                                        2                                                     5.3
4.3                                                           5.4

                                                                        1                                                     4.9
2.9                                                           5.9
                                                                        0                                                     4.4
                      RBA Cash Rate (lhs)
                                                                            Unemployment
1.5                                                           6.5           Rate (rhs)
                                                                    -1                                                        4.0
  Mar-04   Jun-06   Sep-08     Dec-10   Mar-13       Jun-15
                                                                     Jan-03       Dec-05     Nov-08     Oct-11       Sep-14

                                                                    7
Australian vs. US Unemployment Rate
Australia-US unemployment rate divergence and differential is a powerful guide for AUD.

               AUSTRALIA & US                                        AUD/USD & AUSTRALIA-US
            UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
                                                                  UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DIFFERENTIAL
                                US Unemployment              -5.0                                          1.14
                                                                       AUD/USD (rhs)
 11.0                                Rate             11.0
                                                                               Australia-US
                                                             -3.0           Unemployment Rate              0.99
                                                                                  (lhs)
  9.0                                                 9.0
                                                             -1.0                                          0.84

  7.0                                                 7.0
                                                             1.0                                           0.70

  5.0                                                 5.0    3.0                                           0.55

                 Australian Unemployment Rate
  3.0                                                 3.0    5.0                                           0.40
   Feb-78    Feb-88    Feb-98      Feb-08       Feb-18        Feb-78    Feb-88    Feb-98    Feb-08   Feb-18

                                                              8
Australia’s Domestic Economy Weak and Australia-US Rates Narrowing

US economy firming. Australia-US two-year bond spread currently at 123bpts
                                                                                MARKET PRICING FOR RBA
                                                                   %                  (30-day Interbank Futures )               Bpts
                                                                   3.00                                                        0.15

             AUD/USD & AUSTRALIA-US                                2.75                                                        0.10

    %        TWO-YEAR BOND SPREAD
                                                                   2.50     Bpts Per Meeting (rhs)                             0.05
   6.0                                                  1.15
         Australia-US Two-Year Bond
                                                                   2.25                                                        0.00
         Spread (lhs)
   4.5                                                  1.03
                                                                                                      Cumulative (lhs)
                                                                   2.00                                                        -0.05

   3.0                                                  0.90       1.75                                                        -0.10

                                                                                                     Pricing RBA Rate Cuts
                                                                   1.50                                                        -0.15
   1.5                                                  0.78
                                                                       MAR 15 JUN 15 SEP 15 DEC 15 MAR 16 JUN 16

                                                                          MARKET PRICING FOR FED FUNDS
                                                                    %                 (30-day Fed Fund Futures)
   0.0                                                  0.65       2.50
                                          150 Bpts
                                                                   2.25
                                         Pivot Level
  -1.5                                                  0.53       2.00
                                                                               Market Pricing for
                             AUD/USD (rhs)                         1.75        Fed Rate Hikes

                                                                   1.50
  -3.0                                                  0.40
    Mar-92   Jan-97   Nov-01    Sep-06   Jul-11   May-16           1.25
                                                                          Current Fed Funds Rate
                                                                   1.00

                                                                   0.75

                                                                   0.50
                                                                                                    December 2015
                                                                   0.25
                                                               9   0.00
                                                                      Mar-15     Sep-15    Mar-16   Sep-16   Mar-17   Sep-17
Forecasts – Exchange Rates

                                                                    Date       AUD
                                                                   Period    (input)

                                                                   Current   0.7728
       AUD/USD & TERMS OF TRADE                                    Mar-15    0.7600
                                                                   Jun-15    0.7300
136                                                    2.00
                                                                   Sep-15    0.7200
                                    Australia                      Dec-15    0.7000
                              Terms of Trade                       Mar-16    0.7100
117                               Index (lhs)          1.68        Jun-16    0.7200
           AUD /USD (rhs)
                                                                   Sep-16    0.7300
                                                                   Dec-16    0.7400
 98                                                    1.36        Mar-17    0.7500
                                                                   Jun-17    0.7600
                                       Float
                                                                   Sep-17    0.7800
                                                                   Dec-17    0.8000
 78                                                    1.04
                                                                   Mar-18    0.8200
                                                                   Jun-18    0.8500
                                                                   Sep-18    0.8800
 59                                                    0.72        Dec-18    0.8800
                                                                   Mar-19    0.8800
                                                                   Jun-19    0.8800
 40                                                    0.40        Sep-19    0.8800
  Sep-59    May-71   Jan-83   Sep-94     May-06   Jan-18           Dec-19    0.8800
                                                                   Mar-20    0.8800
                                                                   Jun-20    0.8800
                                                                   Sep-20    0.8800
                                                                   Dec-20    0.8800

                                                              10
Some Long-Run Considerations on Commodity Prices

          REAL COMMODITY PRICES OVER THE LAST 214 YEARS

                                  11
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