COVID-19 PUBLIC AFFAIRS ADVOCACY - TEMPLE SCOTT ASSOCIATES INC. THURSDAY, APRIL 9, 2020 - Canadian Propane ...
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COVID-19 PUBLIC AFFAIRS ADVOCACY TEMPLE SCOTT ASSOCIATES INC. THURSDAY, APRIL 9, 2020
Moderator and Presenters
Brian Klunder Don Moors Scott Munnoch Caitlin Drouillard
Senior Counsel Principal Senior Counsel Senior Consultant
TEMPLE SCOTT ASSOCIATES INC.
TSA Consultants
TEMPLE SCOTT ASSOCIATES INC.
Agenda
I. Context
II. Federal Measures and Parliamentary Update
III. Provincial Measures
IV. Medium-Term Policy Outlook
V. Long-Term Policy Implications
VI. Public Affairs Outlook and Strategy
VII. Questions and Answers
TEMPLE SCOTT ASSOCIATES INC.
Context – COVID-19 (Global)
▪ Unprecedented economic
and sociocultural disruption
▪ As of April 9:
➢More than 1.5
million cases in more than
200 countries and
territories.
➢More than 90,057 deaths
and more than 340,630 full
recoveries.
TEMPLE SCOTT ASSOCIATES INC.
Context – COVID-19 (Domestic)
▪ As of April 9:
o19,791 cases and 462
deaths.
▪ Provincial states of
emergency: Non-essential
workplaces, schools closed.
▪ Borders closed, except for
critical trade. Inter-
provincial travel
discouraged.
▪ Self-isolation ordered by
public health authorities.
TEMPLE SCOTT ASSOCIATES INC.
Context – Government Responses
▪ ‘Whole-of-government’
responses focussed on:
➢Limiting spread of
the virus
➢Scaling up healthcare
sector capacity; and
➢Managing economic
fallout.
▪ Governments are
committed to ‘whatever
is necessary’.
TEMPLE SCOTT ASSOCIATES INC.
Federal Financial Assistance
On March 25, Parliament enacted $82 billion worth of COVID-19-related financial assistance.
Programs include:
Canada Emergency Loans and Tax Deferrals 10% Wage Subsidy
Response Benefit for Businesses
Program Pending Legislation:
Canada Emergency
Wage Subsidy
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Federal Liquidity Measures
Bank of Canada
▪ Key interest rate cut to 0.25%.
▪ Quantitative easing until economic recovery
“well underway”.
▪ Bankers’ Acceptance Purchase Facility and
Standing Term Liquidity Facility enacted.
Office of the Superintendent of Financial
Institutions
▪ Lowered mandatory capital “buffer” for banks,
to increase lending capacity by over $300 billion
(temporary).
▪ The Bank of Canada to re-assess economic
outlook in the upcoming weeks
TEMPLE SCOTT ASSOCIATES INC.
Federal – Private Sector Collaboration
Plan to Mobilize Industry to fight COVID-19
offers funding to combat COVID-19, through a
call to action for manufacturers and all
suppliers.
Industry-support and R&D programs
re-focussed:
▪ Strategic Innovation Fund: Will
fast-track funding for projects
aimed at treating or curing COVID-
19.
▪ The National Research Council of
Canada: Will partner with post-
secondary education institutions
and SMEs on R&D.
TEMPLE SCOTT ASSOCIATES INC.Federal Parliament Update
▪ Parliament is recessed until
April 20, but will be recalled
soon to pass legislation for the
Canada Emergency Wage
Subsidy.
▪ House of Commons Finance
and Health Committees are
meeting to monitor the
Government’s pandemic
response.
▪ Federal Budget date is
unknown. The Government is
re-drafting Budget 2020 for
the COVID-19 context.
TEMPLE SCOTT ASSOCIATES INC.Ontario Measures
Spring Economic and Fiscal Update
focussed on COVID-19:
▪ Most tax filing deadlines
extended until August 31.
▪ Employer Health Tax exemption
increased from $490,000 to $1
million for 2020.
▪ Workplace Safety and Insurance
Board payments deferred up to
six months.
▪ Creation of a new Regional
Opportunities Investment Tax
Credit.
TEMPLE SCOTT ASSOCIATES INC.Ontario Measures
The ‘Ontario Together’
funds public-private
collaboration on COVID-
19.
▪ $50 million to help
businesses provide
solutions or
manufacture medical
supplies.
▪ Creation of Ontario
Jobs and Recovery
Committee
TEMPLE SCOTT ASSOCIATES INC.Alberta Measures
▪ Collection of corporate income tax
deferred until August 31.
▪ Workers’ Compensation Board
premiums deferred until 2021.
Government to pay 50% of 2020
premiums for SMEs.
▪ ‘Bits and Pieces’ program invites
companies and non-profits to
provide supplies to combat COVID-
19.
▪ Economic Recovery Panel to
generate policy plan.
TEMPLE SCOTT ASSOCIATES INC.Quebec Measures
▪ PACTE: Access to $50,000 to
$500,000 for business.
▪ Emergency aid for SMEs: Access
to a maximum of $50,000 per
business.
▪ PACME: Up to $100,000 for
employers to administer skills
training online.
▪ Panier bleu: Buy local platform.
▪ Cabinet economic recovery squad
created.
TEMPLE SCOTT ASSOCIATES INC.British Columbia Measures
$5 billion COVID-19 Action Plan:
▪ Employer health tax payments
deferred until September 30 for
organizations with a payroll over
$500,000/year.
▪ Most tax payment deadlines
extended until September 30.
▪ Increase of provincial carbon tax
and PST registrations on e-
commerce delayed.
▪ $1.5 billion allocated for long-term
economic recovery – informed by
Economic Recovery Task Force.
TEMPLE SCOTT ASSOCIATES INC.Medium-Term Outlook: Sector-Specific Aid
▪ The Federal Government has
signaled intention to provide
sector-specific aid to select
sectors:
➢Airlines
➢Tourism and hospitality
➢Charities
➢Natural resource extraction
▪ The Government has waived
lease payments for Canada’s
airports from March 2020 –
December 2020.
TEMPLE SCOTT ASSOCIATES INC.Medium-Term Policy Outlook
Canadian Governments are viewing the crisis on a 3 - 6 month timeline, depending on the extent of
the global and domestic spread of COVID-19:
▪ Federal Government Operations Centre modelling suggested that at least some of the
measures to fight COVID-19 will remain in place until July.
Looking ahead, stakeholders must consider:
➢ Current Federal programs are designed for a four-month timeline.
➢ The fiscal firepower of the Provinces is limited – can they sustain crisis levels of healthcare
and economic support spending?
➢ Long-term format of Parliaments: The Federal Government is exploring virtual Parliamentary
sittings. The United Kingdom and other jurisdictions already developing virtual sittings.
➢ Impact of the U.S. Presidential Election:
o Postponed primaries and looming battle over mail-in voting; and
o Differing global role played by U.S. in potential Trump and Biden Presidencies.
TEMPLE SCOTT ASSOCIATES INC.Potential Long-Term Policy Implications of COVID-19
Socio-economic policies implemented during crises are hard to roll back:
▪ Employment Insurance: Implemented in response to the Great Depression. Became
permanent and progressively generous over time.
▪ Income taxes: Introduced to fund Canada’s WWI effort, became a permanent source of
Federal revenue.
TEMPLE SCOTT ASSOCIATES INC.Potential Long-Term Policy Implications of COVID-19
What is ‘the EI’ of COVID-19?
▪ Expect pressure for CEWS and CERB to
become permanent:
➢ Spain intends to implement a
universal basic income in response to
COVID-19.
➢ Germany introduced a CEWS-style
program during the 2008/09
financial crisis and made it
permanent afterwards.
▪ Mobilization of the private sector by government to meet the challenges of
COVID-19 could be applied to other issues – e.g. climate change or smart cities.
TEMPLE SCOTT ASSOCIATES INC.Potential Long-Term Policy Implications of COVID-19
Globalization and International Trade
▪ Global competition for medical equipment
during the pandemic has shaken Canadian
leaders.
▪ Expect stockpiling supplies for future
pandemics.
▪ Expect longer-term emphasis on domestic
manufacturing of critical goods – from agri-
food, to energy, to medicines.
▪ Expect renewed debate about stronger
domestic infrastructure and supply chains –
e.g. telecommunications and transportation
infrastructure.
TEMPLE SCOTT ASSOCIATES INC.Potential Long-Term Policy Implications of COVID-19
Deficits and Debt Servicing
• Estimated $5 trillion in fiscal relief packages for COVID-19 worldwide, largely funded by debt.
• OECD estimates reduction in gross domestic product in the G7 of 20 to 30%.
• Federal deficit estimated to be $184 billion in 2020/21 – that is 8.5% of Canadian GDP – with
the potential to go much higher as further stimulus measures announced.
2020
TEMPLE SCOTT ASSOCIATES INC.Lessons From Canada’s Recent Past
Post – SARS Crisis:
▪ Public Health Agency of Canada / Chief
Medical Officer of Health established.
▪ Federal, Provincial, Territorial Public Health
Response Plan for Biological Events created.
▪ Ontario launched an Advisory Committee Post – 2008 Fiscal Crisis:
on SARS, leading creation of a new public ▪ Two-year fiscal stimulus package centred on
health agency. infrastructure development – including the
Home Renovation Tax Credit.
▪ Bailout of General Motors.
▪ Increased regulation of the financial sector.
▪ Demand for natural resources and
household debt greatly aided recovery.
TEMPLE SCOTT ASSOCIATES INC.Applying Lessons From Canada’s Recent Past
Post – COVID in Canada:
▪ Significant stimulus spending to boost the
economy, specific focus on SMEs and
infrastructure.
▪ Key industry bailouts during and after the
pandemic.
▪ Role of consumer spending and global price
of oil will be instrumental in economic
recovery.
▪ Parliamentary and other Committees study
and make recommendations for future
infectious disease pandemics.
TEMPLE SCOTT ASSOCIATES INC.Return to Normal?
Trudeau Government Mandates Minority Parliament CPC Leadership
▪ Expect a post-pandemic ▪ Post pandemic-debate will be and Next Election
Cabinet shuffle and new about continued spending to ▪ Conservative leadership race
mandate letters. bolster the economy vs. may be on hold for months –
▪ Post-Election 2019 priorities reducing deficit/debt. dynamic of the race could
are on hold, (e.g. pharmacare, ▪ Minority Liberal government change once re-started.
reconciliation) many may no must broker opposition views. ▪ How does a new Leader
longer be affordable. ▪ Minority control of the House shape the post COVID debate
▪ Is the current mandate of Commons means
defined solely by the response Opposition will control the
to COVID-19? review of government
performance during the crisis
and influence the post crisis
policies.
TEMPLE SCOTT ASSOCIATES INC.Public Affairs Outlook
▪ Governments will remain focussed on
pandemic response and economic recovery
for the foreseeable future
▪ All non-pandemic-related files will be viewed
as secondary, as governments maintain ‘all
of government’ approaches to COVID-19.
▪ Governments open to discussion about how
the pandemic is impacting organizations
over the short, medium, and long term.
▪ Advocacy efforts at this time should be tied
to the pandemic or economic recovery.
▪ Plan for a gradual, staged return to a NEW
NORMAL, with first stages starting late
spring.
TEMPLE SCOTT ASSOCIATES INC.Public Affairs Strategy
Communicating with governments today:
▪ Think outside of the box – all issues must be seen through pandemic and recovery lens.
▪ Using virtual outlets to communicate with policymakers will be normalized during and post-
pandemic.
▪ Ask “how can we help governments manage this crisis?”
Planning for the future:
▪ Tie any ‘ask’ of governments to economic
recovery.
▪ Look for opportunities to submit your issues to
governments through pre-budget consultations
and direct advocacy over summer and fall 2020.
▪ Begin considering advocacy approach for 2021
and beyond now. Economic and fiscal landscape
changed for foreseeable future – won’t be able
to revisit current strategy in fall or 2021.
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