Creche Demand and Needs Assessment - Roselawn Strategic Housing ...

Page created by Lauren Shelton
 
CONTINUE READING
Creche Demand and Needs Assessment - Roselawn Strategic Housing ...
Creche Demand and Needs Assessment
Proposed residential development

At: Granville Hall, Stillorgan Road, Foxrock, DUBLIN 18

(eg. site location)

On behalf of: Granville Hall Partnership

                                                                             March 2019

                                                                                      DATE --------------

Future Analytics Consulting 2_0543_Creche Demand Assessment_Granville Hall
Contents
CONTENTS ....................................................................................................................................................... 2
1. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................ 3
2. PLANNING POLICY .................................................................................................................................... 4
     2.1      CHILDCARE FACILITIES GUIDELINES FOR PLANNING AUTHORITIES 2001 .................................................................. 4
     2.2      SUSTAINABLE URBAN HOUSING: DESIGN STANDARDS FOR NEW APARTMENTS GUIDELINES FOR PLANNING AUTHORITIES
     (2018)   ................................................................................................................................................................ 4
     2.3      DUN LAOGHAIRE-RATHDOWN DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2016-2022 ........................................................................... 4

3.     APPROACH ............................................................................................................................................... 5
4.     DEVELOPMENT NEED ............................................................................................................................... 5

     4.1      CATCHMENT AREA........................................................................................................................................ 5
     4.2      DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE ................................................................................................................................. 5

5.     EXISTING CHILDCARE PROVISION ............................................................................................................. 6
6.     ASSESSMENT OF CHILDCARE INFRASTRUCTURE PROVISION .................................................................... 8
     6.1      CURRENT AND POTENTIAL FUTURE PROVISION .................................................................................................. 8
     6.2      SUMMARY OF THE WIDER NEEDS OF THE CATCHMENT ........................................................................................ 8

7   CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................................................ 9
APPENDIX 1: DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN CATCHMENT .................................................................................. 11
APPENDIX 2: WIDER HOUSING TRENDS IN DLR .............................................................................................. 14

Future Analytics Consulting 2_0543_Creche Demand Assessment_Granville Hall
1.       Introduction
The following report has been prepared by Future Analytics Consulting (FAC) in support of the proposal for a
residential unit development comprising 142 units at Granville Hall, Stillorgan Road prepared by Henry J Lyons
architects on behalf of Granville Hall Partnership.

We understand the proposal is for a Built to Rent Scheme (BTR) and includes the following unit mix;

     •   73 x 1 bedroom units (51%)

     •   68 x 2 bedroom units (48%)

     •   1 x 3 bedroom unit (1%)

The following report considers the need for a childcare centre based on the;

     •   Demographics of the area,

     •   Characteristics of the population who are likely to rent a home within the scheme, and

     •   Requirements of the relevant planning policy.

FAC have reviewed the available census data for the Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown Council (DLR) Area and the wider
Dublin area, provided by the Central Statistics Office (CSO). FAC have also considered existing planning approvals
for childcare facilities in the area and the following planning policy in our review of the proposal;

     •   Section 28 Ministerial Guidelines

     •   Childcare Facilities Guidelines for Planning Authorities 2001 (the Guidelines)

     •   Sustainable Urban Housing: Design Standards for New Apartments Guidelines for Planning Authorities
         (apartment guidelines)

     •   Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown Development Plan 2016-2022

The following provides an evidence-based opinion on the development need for a childcare centre within the subject
proposal.

Future Analytics Consulting 2_0543_Creche Demand Assessment_Granville Hall
2.        Planning Policy
2.1       Childcare Facilities Guidelines for Planning Authorities 2001
The Childcare Facilities Guidelines for Planning Authorities 2001 (the Guidelines) state that one childcare facility
should be provided for new large-scale housing developments unless there are significant reasons to the contrary
for example, development consisting of one bed apartments or where there are adequate childcare facilities in
the area. The Guidelines recommend that for new housing areas, an average of one childcare facility per seventy-
five dwellings would be appropriate. The threshold for provision should be established having regard to the
existing geographical distribution of childcare facilities and the emerging demographic profile of areas.

2.2       Sustainable Urban Housing: Design Standards for New
          Apartments Guidelines for Planning Authorities (2018)
The recently revised Sustainable Urban Housing: Design Standards for New Apartments Guidelines for Planning
Authorities (2018) also requires that childcare facilities be provided in accordance with the demographic profile
of the area and the existing capacity of childcare centres. The guidelines also specifically state;

          ‘One-bedroom or studio type units should not generally be considered to contribute to a requirement for
          any childcare provision and subject to location, this may also apply in part or whole, to units with two
          or more bedrooms’ (our emphasis)

73 of the proposed units (51%) will comprise one bedroom apartments. These units, in accordance with the
guidelines, will not generate the need for a childcare facility.

Accordingly, 68 two bedroom units and 1 three bedroom unit (which we note is below the 75 unit threshold
which triggers a childcare facility) are to be provided and considered in the context of generated requirements
for an additional childcare facility, including local area characteristics.

2.3       Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown Development Plan 2016 -2022
Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown Development Plan 2016-2022 (the Plan) provides the overarching planning policy that
applies to the area. Policy SIC11 of the Plan requires the provision of childcare facilities in new large scale
residential developments as appropriate. The indicative standard is one childcare facility accommodating twenty
children, for each 75 dwellings. This standard may be modified in any particular case where there are significant
reasons for doing so.

Section 8.2.12.1 of the Plan further clarifies that this standard may be enforced depending on local circumstances
but that the Planning Authority will consult with the Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown County Childcare Committee in
this regard.

In accordance with the requirements of DLR Council, a childcare facility audit and assessment has been
undertaken to ascertain the need and demand for a crèche facility in conjunction with the provision of 142 units
on the subject site. (Noting that 51% (73) of these units are one bed and therefore excluded in the parameters
of the guidance).

Future Analytics Consulting   2_0543_Creche Demand Assessment_Granville Hall
3.          Approach
Having due regard to the planning policy above, we must also consider the legacy of the economic crash which
illustrates that a defined need should be established and critical mass before a childcare facility can be successful.
Purpose-built crèche facilities provided in accordance with the policy requirements, can remain vacant and
unoccupied when space is not taken up by a childcare provider. This can be attributed to several factors
including; the adequacy and profile of existing childcare facilities within the immediate area, or simply
inadequate demand as a result of the development needs. The resultant effect can manifest into unused
commercial property or floor space within a residential development which over time and without maintenance,
can physically deteriorate reducing the visual amenity of the development for the residents and result in an
uneconomic use of land.

Therefore, this childcare assessment has been undertaken in accordance with the following three steps;

       1.   Determining the need arising from the development proposal;
       2.   Determining the extent and provision of existing childcare facilities within the neighbourhood; and
       3.   Analysing the characteristics of the demographics of the population who currently rent in the area.

4.          Development Need
4.1         Catchment Area
The catchment area for the study is defined as the area within 2km of the subject site boundary (see Figure 1 –
Context Map). Precise population figures from the Central Statistics Office called Small Area Population Statistics
(SAPS) data have been used for both 2011 and 2016. Specifically, the assessment uses Electoral Divisions data
for a more disaggregated view of local populations. The 2km buffer of the site boundary intersects 15 different
Electoral Division areas (ED) (note that certain ED areas were removed, where less than 30% of the ED area was
within the 2km buffer area – see Figure 1). The total population for this catchment area is 47,598 in 2016 up
3.1% from 2011 or 1,430 persons.

4.2         Demographic Profile
In accordance with census data for the area, 60% of all privately rented properties in DLR Council have no
children (See Appendix 2). Applying this to the proposal, 41 out of the 69 two and three bedroom dwellings will
not accommodate children. This leaves 28 two bedroom and 1 three bedroom dwelling where children are likely
to be accommodated.

Further analysing this figure, Census 2016 data shows that 35.5% of privately rented households are by single
persons and a further 24.5% of renters are married or a cohabiting couple with no children. The proposed scheme
is solely a BTR development and therefore it is reasonable to assume that these figures will apply to the proposal.
We also note that, 25% of the population who are renting in the area are under 29 years of age and less likely to
have children according to recent census data. This demonstrates that the characteristics of the population who
are most likely to rent accommodation in the proposed scheme will not have children.

The proposed development comprises 142 units with 73 of those units being one bedroom only. Accordingly, 69
units are considered in relation to the requirements for an additional childcare facility.

Utilising an average household size of 2.73 persons per unit, in accordance with standardised Census of
Population data for DLR Council, 69 houses will yield a population of 188 persons. Through further analysis of
2016 Census data, it has been determined that, in the catchment, the average household contains 1.64 1 children
(persons aged 19 and under) of which 24% are children aged between 0-4 years old. In accordance with current

1
    Calculated weighted average of households by number children born for the 15 catchment EDs using Census 2016 SAPS.

Future Analytics Consulting      2_0543_Creche Demand Assessment_Granville Hall
rates of population, the proposed development would yield 113 children (69 units x 1.64) of which 27 would be
between 0 and 4 years of age, that is within the crèche requirement age.

The Quarterly National Household Survey, Childcare, Quarter 3 2016’ reports 2 that only 25% of pre-school
children in Dublin attend a childcare facility. This figure is entirely relevant to the subject proposal. When this
ratio is applied, to the development, only 7 childcare spaces would be required.

                       Variables                            Value
      Potential Children in Development               113
                   Children Aged 0-4                  24%
                   Max Need                            27
            QNHS Assumed Take-up Rate                 25%
                   Min Need                             7
For the purpose of this exercise it is intended to assume a worst-case scenario and assume that all children within
crèche going age group would require childcare. As a precaution, we have therefore also reviewed the existing
TUSLA listings for the area.

5.          Existing Childcare Provision
In addition to the above analysis, it was deemed appropriate to audit existing childcare provision within a 2km
catchment of the subject site, equitable to a 22-minute walk time. There are additional childcare facilities beyond
the 2km catchment but these have not been included in this assessment. The 2km study catchment is considered
to reflect, a typical 22-minute walk time based on an average walking speed within an urban environment. The
spatial extent of this study area is clearly illustrated in the map overleaf.

TUSLA provides independent data on childcare facilities generated from their inspections of childcare facilities.
The inspections are undertaken yearly and updated accordingly. The subject figures are taken from the 2017 –
2018 reports. These inspections are undertaken by TUSLA to ensure that the childcare facilities are compliant
with legislative requirements. From a planning perspective, this information provides standardised and
comparative data inclusive of;

        •    Childcare capacity,

        •    Number of children registered, and,

        •    Childcare take up (on day of inspection).

A table of childcare facilities located within the 15 EDs in the study area alongside the attendance figures can be
found below:
Table 1 Existing Tulsa Registered Childcare Facilities

    Tusla Ref.          Facility Name                                                   Attendance
    TU2015DR089         Cocco's Creche & Montessori                                        34
    TU2015DR061         St. Brigid's Parish Playschool                                     25
    TU2015DR066         Wee Care Ltd.                                                     143
    TU2017DR500         The Playroom Stillorgan                                             3
    TU2015DR049         Stepping Stones Playschool                                         12
    TU2015DR163         Lycee Fracais D'Irelande                                         No Data
    TU2015DR060         Guardian Angels Montessori School                                  14
    TU2015DR129         Mountainside Montessori                                            22
    TU2016DR023         The Children's House Montessori Primary School                     40

2
    https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/q-chi/qnhschildcarequarter32016/

Future Analytics Consulting      2_0543_Creche Demand Assessment_Granville Hall
TU2015DR082         Monkstown Day Nursery Community Playgroup Ltd.              17
 TU2015DR116         FitZone Montessori and Creche Leopardstown                  23
 TU2016DR020         Wendy Kelly -Childminder                                  No Data
 TU2015DR034         Glenalbyn Montessori School                                 18
 TU2016DR015         Lily Montessori                                             16
 TU2016DR013         Foxrock Montessori School                                   26
 TU2015DR080         Giraffe Childcare Leopardstown                              60
 TU2015DR025         Greenfields Montessori                                      19
 TU2015DR154         Giraffe Childcare Central Park                              55
 TU2015DR070         Constructive Pre-Preschool                                  13
 TU2015DR104         Beechwood Childcare                                         55
 TU2016DR024         Childminding by Agata Siejko                              No Data
 TU2017DR501         Cocobee Childcare                                           15
 TU2016DR005         Miss Judi's IMEB Montessori                               No Data
 TU2015DR047         Simbas Playgroup & Montessori                               35
 TU2015DR064         Hollypark Montessori                                        24
 TU2016DR022         Libby McGuire Montessori School                             19
 TU2015DR158         Little Gems Montessori & Childcare                           7
 TU2015DR138         Raglan Child Care Centre                                    10
 TU2015DR039         Leopardstown Montessori School                              29
 TU2015DR122         Star Tots Creche                                            89
 TU2016DR009         Wise Little Owls Montessori                                 16
                     Total                                                      839

Future Analytics Consulting   2_0543_Creche Demand Assessment_Granville Hall
6          Assessment of Childcare Infrastructure Provision
6.1        Current and Potential Future Provision
A total of 32 (TUSLA registered) childcare facilities currently operate within a 22-minute walking distance of the
site (listed in Table 1) offering a minimum of 839 places. A further 6 crèche facilities with a potential capacity for
1623 children have been granted planning permission within the catchment area. The locations of each of these
has been provided on the map above and itemised in Table 2 below. The applications relate to extensions to
existing creches and proposals for new creches and are not associated with other large-scale housing
developments.
Table 2 Planned Future Childcare Provision

    Planning Ref          Description                                                        Status                   Decision Date
    D17A/0367             Extension to Creche                                                Commenced                      12/06/2017
    D17A/0359             Change of Use to Creche                                            Commenced                      12/06/2017
    D15A/0553             Change of Use - Childcare Facility                                 Plans Granted                  20/01/2016
    D17A/1092             Change of Use to Creche                                            Plans Granted                  12/02/2018
    D15A/0842             Change of Use to Childcare Facility                                Plans Granted                  23/02/2016
    D16A/0195             Extension to Creche                                                Plans Granted                  17/05/2016

6.2        Summary of the W ider Needs of the Catchment
Existing Demand: Using the recommended 25% of a resident population aged 0-4 taking-up childcare, there is a
demand for 688 places in the study area. Our review of the TUSLA listings in Table 1 demonstrates that there are
839 spaces available in the area. Therefore, there is sufficient current capacity for the resident population within
the catchment. The 7 spaces which will be generated by the subject proposal can be absorbed by the existing
childcare facilities.

                                    2016
    Population Aged 0-4            2,750
    QNHS Take-up Rate               25%
      Minimum Need                  688

3
  Although not specifically stated in the planning applications, the additional capacity of these developments would likely be in the region
of 162 places. This quantum of spaces is derived by taking the average enrolments across the 31 current facilities in the catchment (of 31
enrolments per facility) and assumes a similar capacity for new offerings.

Future Analytics Consulting      2_0543_Creche Demand Assessment_Granville Hall
7 Conclusion
FAC have conducted a creche demand analysis and assessed the likely demand generated for a childcare facility
(creche) as a result of the proposed Build-to-Rent (BTR) scheme. The scheme comprises 142 units including;

     •    73 x 1 bedroom units,

     •    68 x 2 bedroom units, and

     •    1 x 3 bedroom units.

The development need for a creche has been considered in the context of;

     •    The composition of the proposed development including unit mix and form,

     •    The demographics of the surrounding area, and

     •    The existing childcare capacity of the area.

Our review has concluded that the proposal does not generate a need for a childcare facility as follows;

1. Unit Mix
     •    68 two bedroom units and 1 three bedroom unit are proposed which does not meet the threshold
          criteria of the guidelines (75 units) which require construction of a childcare facility. The guidelines state
          that; ‘one-bedroom or studio type units should not generally be considered to contribute to a
          requirement for any childcare provision’.

2. Demographics
Notwithstanding the above, the demographics of the area and the characteristics of current renters in the area
demonstrate that the future occupants of the BTR scheme will not warrant the construction of a purpose-built
childcare facility as follows;

•    Census data (2011 and 2016) show that 60% of privately rented households within DLR Council area do not
     have children. Applying this to the proposed development, this would mean that 41 of the 69 two and three
     bedroom dwellings would not include children,

•   24.5% of current renters within DLR Council are married or cohabiting couple with no children. 35.5% of
    privately rented households are by single persons. These figures indicate that the future occupants of the
    proposed BTR scheme are not likely to include children.

•   The Quarterly National Household Survey, Childcare, Quarter 3 2016’ reports that only 25% of pre-school
    children in Dublin attend a childcare facility. When applied to the subject development, only 7 childcare
    spaces would be required. This does not warrant the construction of a purpose-built facility.

3. Planning Review
Our review of planning approvals in the area has also demonstrated that capacity is emerging in the sector as
follows;
•    Planning permission has been approved in the area for four additional childcare facilities and two extensions
     to existing childcare facilities. These approvals are not associated with large-scale housing developments
     and will provide additional spaces in the area on completion.

On this basis, it is considered that there will be sufficient childcare capacity and availability within the local
catchment area to accommodate the likely childcare going age generated by the proposed development, being

Future Analytics Consulting   2_0543_Creche Demand Assessment_Granville Hall
only 7 children. It is not feasible or practical to provide a purpose built childcare facility for this number of
children onsite.

Therefore, in our opinion, due to the proposed unit mix and the proximity and availability of existing childcare
facilities to the proposed development, there is no need or requirement for the provision of additional childcare
spaces as part of this development proposal.

Future Analytics Consulting   2_0543_Creche Demand Assessment_Granville Hall
Appendix 1: Demographic trends in Catchment
The catchment area for the study is defined as the area within 2km of the Subject Site boundary. Precise
population figures from the Central Statistics Office called Small Area Population Statistics (SAPS) data have been
used for both 2011 and 2016. Specifically, the assessment uses Electoral Divisions data for a more disaggregated
view of local populations. The 2km buffer of the site boundary intersects 15 different Electoral Division areas
(ED) (note that certain ED areas we removed where less than 30% of its area was included with the buffer area).
The total population for this catchment area is 47,598 in 2016 up 3.1% from 2011 or 1,430 persons.

The subject site is located in the Foxrock-Deans Grange ED (CSO Area Code ED: 05055), which has a population
of 2,448 people in the Census 2016. The ED has experienced population growth of 0.6% over the past 5 years
since 2011. Just 6 of the ED in the study area grew at a rate over 1% per annum, while 4 EDs actually experienced
a decline in population over the period. Stillorgan-Leopardstown and Stillorgan-Merville were the 2 EDs which
experienced the strongest growth at 11.7% and 17.2% respectively.

The catchment is in a low-density suburb and with very little greenfield sites for future residential development.
As a result, the capacity of the catchment to expand in population is not as strong as in other locations around
Dublin.

Table 3 –Population Change for Catchment ED’s

    ED Name                        2011         2016          Change          Percentage
                                                              2011-16         change
    Blackrock-Carysfort              6,160        6,318                158             2.6%
    Blackrock-Central                3,841        3,733               -108            -2.8%
    Blackrock-Monkstown              3,073        3,239                166             5.4%
    Blackrock-Newpark                2,164        2,316                152             7.0%
    Blackrock-Stradbrook             2,299        2,462                163             7.1%
    Blackrock-Templehill             2,687        2,658                 -29           -1.1%
    Cabinteely-Pottery               4,833        4,997                164             3.4%
    Dún          Laoghaire-
                                                                       130             6.2%
    Monkstown Farm                   2,095        2,225
    Foxrock-Beechpark                1,653        1,680                 27             1.6%
    Foxrock-Carrickmines             6,088        5,951               -137            -2.3%
    Foxrock-Deans Grange             2,434        2,448                 14             0.6%
    Foxrock-Torquay                  1,439        1,445                   6            0.4%
    Stillorgan-Leopardstown          2,429        2,714                285            11.7%
    Stillorgan-Merville              2,744        3,217                473            17.2%
    Stillorgan-Priory                2,229        2,195                 -34           -1.5%
    Total                            46,168       47,598             1,430             3.1%

Discounting the population gain from future residential development within the catchment, this study focuses
on the existing population and the natural increases that will occur over the next 10-year horizon within the 15
catchment EDs. The catchment population is expected to rise by at least 7,536 persons over the next decade
(+15.8%). Comparing this growth to the national projected average growth from the CSO 4 (which is estimated to
be just under 12% over the same period (2016-2026)).

4
    www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/population/2013/poplabfor2016_2046.pdf

Future Analytics Consulting     2_0543_Creche Demand Assessment_Granville Hall
Table 4 – Population Projection for Catchment ED’s

 ED Name                               2016           2026           Change       Percentage
                                                                     2016-26      change
 Blackrock-Carysfort                       6,318         7,436           1,118            17.7%
 Blackrock-Central                         3,733         4,451            718             19.2%
 Blackrock-Monkstown                       3,239         3,730            491             15.2%
 Blackrock-Newpark                         2,316         2,498            182              7.9%
 Blackrock-Stradbrook                      2,462         2,795            333             13.5%
 Blackrock-Templehill                      2,658         3,172            514             19.3%
 Cabinteely-Pottery                        4,997         5,715            718             14.4%
 Dún       Laoghaire-Monkstown
                                           2,225         2,602            377             16.9%
 Farm
 Foxrock-Beechpark                         1,680         1,808            128              7.6%
 Foxrock-Carrickmines                      5,951         6,857            906             15.2%
 Foxrock-Deans Grange                      2,448         2,725            277             11.3%
 Foxrock-Torquay                           1,445         1,685            240             16.6%
 Stillorgan-Leopardstown                   2,714         3,264            550             20.3%
 Stillorgan-Merville                       3,217         3,789            572             17.8%
 Stillorgan-Priory                         2,195         2,606            411             18.7%
 Total                                     47,598        55,134          7,536            15.8%

Age Profile
The second demographic factor relevant to childcare infrastructure provision is age profile. Ensuring that there
is an adequate provision of the right type of community infrastructure based on need should be a direct
determinant of what infrastructure is required and where. The current age profile for 2016 (below) shows
relatively lower concentrations of younger age cohorts with just 17.8% of the current population under the age
of 15 compared with 21.1% Nationally.

Table 5 – Population by Age in 2016 for Catchment ED’s

 Age Group              Population 2016               % of Total
 0-4                               2,750                     5.8%
 5- 9                              2,945                     6.2%
 10-14                             2,788                     5.9%
 15-19                             2,978                     6.3%
 20-24                             3,337                     7.0%
 25-29                             2,823                     5.9%
 30-34                             2,939                     6.2%
 35-39                             3,233                     6.8%
 40-44                             3,150                     6.6%
 45-49                             3,265                     6.9%
 50-54                             3,412                     7.2%
 55-59                             3,094                     6.5%
 60-64                             2,582                     5.4%
 65+                               8,302                     17.4%
 Total                            47,598

Future Analytics Consulting   2_0543_Creche Demand Assessment_Granville Hall
This population breakdown will shift over the next 10 years but is likely to maintain sizable concentrations of
young persons under the age of 5. Similarly, we are seeing larger numbers of persons entering the age brackets
65+ with a net increase of further 1,300 persons over the next decade.

Table 4 – Population Projection by Age in 2026 for Catchment ED’s

    Age Group              Population 2026                       % of Total
    0-4                                 3,402                             6.2%
    5- 9                                2,935                             5.3%
    10-14                               2,881                             5.2%
    15-19                               3,117                             5.7%
    20-24                               3,655                             6.6%
    25-29                               4,617                             8.4%
    30-34                               4,655                             8.4%
    35-39                               3,579                             6.5%
    40-44                               3,355                             6.1%
    45-49                               3,434                             6.2%
    50-54                               3,234                             5.9%
    55-59                               3,279                             5.9%
    60-64                               3,353                             6.1%
    65+                                 9,639                             17.5%
    Total                               55,134

Modelling this change using the Demographic Component Model methodology from the Central Statistics office 5
highlights a number of key points:

       •    The population of the catchment area is set to grow by just under 16% over the period 2016 - 2026.
            Given the area’s existing high population, this will result in a sizable cohort of 3,402 people aged 0-4
            years old. This represents a 23.7% increase in population aged 0-4 over the period.
       •    The dependency ratio in the catchment is set to rise only marginally over the next 10 years.
       •    There is a continued need to provide suitable childcare facilities, and infrastructure for young people
            where 16.7% of the population is under the age of 15.

The projection does not account for the zoned land and development capacity for new residential developments
that in the area.

5
    FAC’s projection of population is underpinned by the application of the demographic cohort component methodology (CCM); the same
methodology as used by the Central Statistics Office in preparing the national projections. CCM is widely used internationally as a best-in-
class methodology. It provides a flexible and powerful approach to population projection by using varying comparative scenarios, each
tailored around the application of qualified assumptions in mortality, fertility and migration (as aligned with the Central Statistics Office’s
assessments).

Future Analytics Consulting       2_0543_Creche Demand Assessment_Granville Hall
Appendix 2: Wider Housing Trends in DLR
Summary Findings:
   • 78,601 Private Households in DLRCOCO
   • 15,907 households in DLRCOCO privately rent
   • 20.2% of all households in DLRCOCO are renting privately
   • 35.5% of Privately Rented Households are by Single Persons
   • A further 24.5% of renters are married or cohabiting couple with no children
   • 60% of all privately rented properties in DLRCOCO have no children

                                                         All types of       Rented from        % Rented from
             Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown
                                                         occupancy         private landlord    private landlord
              All private households                      78,601                15,907              20.2%
        All persons in private households                 213,468               43,592              20.4%
                    One person                            17,576                 2,512              14.3%
                  Married couple                          13,082                 1,395              10.7%
                Cohabiting couple                          3,618                 2,081              57.5%
          Married couple with children                    24,867                 3,898              15.7%
        Cohabiting couple with children                    1,997                  723               36.2%
        One parent mother with children                    5,716                  934               16.3%
        One parent father with children                     933                   158               16.9%
       Married couple with other persons                    674                   143               21.2%
      Cohabiting couple with other persons                  425                   274               64.5%
     Married couple with children and other
                                                            1,468                313                21.3%
                      persons
    Cohabiting couple with children and other
                                                             178                  59                33.1%
                      persons
   One parent mother with children and other
                                                             794                 136                17.1%
                      persons
    One parent father with children and other
                                                             135                  26                19.3%
                      persons
    Two or more family units with or without
                                                             997                 118                11.8%
                   other persons
    Non-family households containing related
                                                            1,759                512                29.1%
                      persons
   Households comprised of unrelated persons
                                                            4,382               2,625               59.9%
                        only

Renters by Age
                                        All types of occupancy      Rented from private landlord       %
           Under 25 years                        2,030                         1,429                  9.0%
             25 - 29 years                       3,452                         2,460                 15.5%
             30 - 34 years                       6,495                         3,520                 22.1%
             35 - 39 years                       8,120                         3,175                 20.0%
             40 - 44 years                       7,828                         1,987                 12.5%
             45 - 49 years                       7,518                         1,241                  7.8%
             50 - 54 years                       7,832                          788                   5.0%
             55 - 59 years                       7,285                          486                   3.1%
             60 - 64 years                       6,556                          310                   1.9%

Future Analytics Consulting   2_0543_Creche Demand Assessment_Granville Hall
65 years and over                       21,452                           510                    3.2%
               All ages                           78,568                          15,906

46.6% of renters are under 35 years of age and just 21% are above the age of 44.

Accommodation Type

                                             77.3%                                               21.9%      0.8%

   0%        10%          20%          30%      40%        50%       60%         70%       80%      90%     100%

                                         Family Houses     Apartment Living      Other

Renting by Age of Stock
                All types of occupancy          Rented from private landlord        % Rented from private landlord
  Before 1919                 4,835                           912                                18.9%
 1919 to 1945                 4,932                           409                                8.3%
 1946 to 1960                 10,735                          675                                6.3%
 1961 to 1970                 10,925                          734                                6.7%
 1971 to 1980                 10,850                         1,120                               10.3%
 1981 to 1990                 8,763                          1,533                               17.5%
 1991 to 2000                 8,107                          2,086                               25.7%
 2001 to 2010                 13,064                         5,472                               41.9%
 2011 or later                1,838                           847                                46.1%
  Not stated                  4,519                          2,118                               46.9%

In DLR, the preference to privately rent newer stock is apparent. This is partially to do with the change in stock
type to higher concentrations of apartment type dwellings over single family dwellings over the past 2 decades.

Future Analytics Consulting     2_0543_Creche Demand Assessment_Granville Hall
You can also read