Czech Republic political briefing: Prospects of the National Politics in 2021 - China-CEE Institute

ISSN: 2560-1601

                                                                                     Vol. 36, No. 1 (CZ)

                                                                                           January 2021

                                Czech Republic political briefing:
                          Prospects of the National Politics in 2021
                                           Ladislav Zemánek

                                                              1052 Budapest Petőfi Sándor utca 11.

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                                                              office@china-cee.eu
Szerkesztésért felelős személy: Chen Xin
Kiadásért felelős személy: Huang Ping                         china-cee.eu

2017/01

Prospects of the National Politics in 2021

      The upcoming Parliamentary election will likely to be the major political event in the
Czech Republic in 2021. They will be held in October, not being excluded that the election will
bring a substantial change of domestic politics. In the briefing, I will analyse the present
principal pre-election tendencies and possible scenarios, putting them into a broader context
of the national political scene.

      The election to the Chamber of Deputies, the lower chamber of the Parliament, are
scheduled on the 8th and 9th of October. The term was set by the President Miloš Zeman at the
end of December 2020 which is unusual in comparison with former precedents. In the past, the
President announced the term four months prior to the election on an average. The Zeman´s
decision implies at least two important things: First, the election campaign started at the very
beginning of 2021, thus lasting over a substantial part of the year which will not contribute to
political stability and responsible behaviour of individual political actors who will be engaged
in the pre-election struggles and driven by the motivation to succeed in the election at any cost.
Second, the early start of the campaign entails the legal obligation of the political parties or
movements to include all expenses on the election campaign since the end of December in the
official transparent account, the total limit of the expenses being set on 90 million CZK (less
than 3.5 million EUR). Therefore, the political subjects will have much time to conduct a
campaign but, at the same time, they are forbidden to exceed the limit which is fixed and
unchanged irrespective of the period of the official part of the campaign launched by the
President. As a consequence, it might put smaller parties with a lower budget at a disadvantage.
Moreover, one should take into consideration the fact that five opposition parties want to run
as coalitions, not separately, the limit remaining the same regardless of the number of coalition
members. It is possible that this intention hid behind the President´s December decision and
was aimed especially against the Social Democrats and the opposition parties which aspire to
defeat the leading ANO movement led by the Prime Minister Andrej Babiš.

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Declining social democrats and the hegemon´s isolation

      Even though the election is to take place in October, there is a question whether the
present ruling coalition, consisting of the ANO and Social Democratic Party (ČSSD), persists
up to the regular term. From time to time, the Government has been paralysed by frictions
between the two subjects. Many representatives of the social democrats have repeatedly cast
doubt upon the alliance with the PM´s movement, calling for a departure from the coalition.
This inner struggle in the Social Democratic Party has existed from the very beginning of the
existence of the Government and will probably last to the election itself. The truth is that the
political orientation of the originally catch-all ANO movement has gradually shifted to the left,
taking over a social-democratic agenda as well as their voters. It contributed significantly to a
weakening of the Social Democratic Party whose support is slightly above the minimum limit
of 5 per cent. Notwithstanding these factors, the party´s leadership always decided not to leave
the Government. Therefore, their departure is unlikely as they would hardly be able to justify
such a step and explicate it to the public several months before the regular election. The
departure would not bring enough voters to change the declining tendency substantially.
Besides, the end of the coalition would lead to an active engagement of President Zeman who
could either appoints his own interim government (as in 2013 and 2014 in the case of the Jiří
Rusnok´s cabinet) or support the incumbent PM who would complement the cabinet with more
loyal members. Both scenarios are not advantageous for the Social Democratic Party. After its
possible departure, they would inevitably become marginal. If the current cabinet persists, the
inner frictions, nevertheless, will be increasingly intensive in the months to follow.

      A year ago, nothing indicated a change in support for the hegemonic political force and
the PM Andrej Babiš. Although the parties involved in the government usually lost popularity
in the course of their mandate in the past, the ANO movement represented an exception.
According to numerous opinion polls, election preferences oscillated around 30 per cent
without any considerable fluctuations. However, the unexpected development provoked by the
novel coronavirus epidemic and related anti-crisis measures and interventionist policies
adopted by the Government has brought about a turn. The support for the ANO stable so far
has started to decrease, thus stimulating the fragmented opposition to attempts at cooperation
and establishment of election coalitions, a united rival bloc. At the beginning of this year, two
groupings have been formed concentrating around the two strongest opposition parties – the
centre-right Civic Democratic Party (ODS) and liberal-progressivist Pirate Party. Seemingly,
these two coalitions will stand in the election, their gain being higher than the result of the
ANO. After all, the principal common denominator is the anti-Babiš ethos, the goal of removal

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of Andrej Babiš from the executive. Albeit the ODS-led bloc is frequently described as
conservative while the Pirates-led one as liberal, considering them as different shades of liberal
opposition is more accurate.1 Ideologically, they have much in common but differ from each
other in some political questions such as the attitude towards the European Union, protection
of traditional family or a level of economic interventionism in the market and redistribution of
resources. These differences will be dampened before the election but will manifest themselves
right after it, being multiplied by personal rivalry and animosity. Especially due to the
individual ambitions and removal of the common „arch-foe“ – Andrej Babiš and the ANO
movement – if they succeed, a long-term stable and calm cooperation or even integration of the
five opposition subjects will be highly unlikely. The coalition-forming process will not,
therefore, lead to integration and overcoming of the political fragmentation but will remain a
purpose-built, pragmatic project which has been initiated in response to the voters´ demand and
objective weakening of the ANO in connection with the 2020 crisis. It will be only a minor
chapter in the political history of our country.

       Crisis of the traditional left

       Unfortunately, the autumn Parliamentary election will not bring about higher political
transparency, crystallisation and efficiency of the political processes. The Czech Republic´s
political system suffered from excessive fragmentation for a long period, making effective
governance freed from endless negotiations and halfway compromises impossible, thus
contributing to a deep disillusionment of the citizens with the political elites, be they leftist or
rightist. Given the establishment of the coalitions described above, representatives of some
parties will get through to the lower chamber which would be highly uncertain in case these run
separately. This is another reason for the current coalition-building tendency. It applies
primarily to the Christian and Democratic Union – Czechoslovak People´s Party (KDU-ČSL)
and liberal-conservative and radically pro-EU orientated TOP 09 party. If each subject runs
separately, it would not be excluded that the number of parties represented in the Chamber of
Deputies would decrease from nine to five. Nevertheless, the opposite scenario will likely to
happen. Probably, eight subjects will be elected with the exception of one of the left-wing
parties – either Social Democratic or Communist Party, not being impossible that both of them
will fail. The 2021 election will thus confirm a deep crisis of the traditional Czech left. The

1
 I analysed the formation of the opposition blocs and their ideological affinity in greater detail in the November
briefing: https://china-cee.eu/2020/11/13/czech-republic-political-briefing-new-dynamics-of-the-domestic-
politics-forming-blocs-against-the-hegemon/.

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leftist agenda has been adopted by the ANO and the Pirate Party, in the second case in a specific,
liberal-progressivist interpretation. Paradoxically, therefore, traditional leftist voters from
lower and middle class from regions could support the populist and Eurosceptic Freedom and
Direct Democracy movement or national-conservative Tricolour Citizens´ Movement,
established by a son of the former President Václav Klaus after his expulsion from the Civic
Democratic Party in 2020.

      This year, communists will commemorate the centenary of the founding of the
Communist Party of Czechoslovakia. The centenary, however, can bring their defeat as the
support for the successor Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSČM) has been
decreasing year by year. As soon as they do not get through to the Chamber of Deputies, it will
be utterly difficult to get back in the future. Seemingly, the party could get a second wind in
case of an alteration in the leadership as it has been led by Vojtěch Filip since 2005. A congress
which was to be held last year has been postponed due to the epidemic crisis and will probably
be summoned in the following months. If the delegates elect the member of the European
Parliament Kateřina Konečná a new chairman, the party could gain broader support and even
overshadow the social democrats.

      Conclusion

      The election will likely to be won by the ANO which, however, will not be able to gain a
majority in the lower chamber as no opposition coalitions want to cooperate with the movement.
Under certain circumstances, the current model could continue but it requires a relative success
of the Social Democratic Party and the Communist Party, which is rather improbable. A crucial
role can be played by President Miloš Zeman who has different possibilities how to influence
on the post-election processes and negotiations. He will give preference to Andrej Babiš and in
case Babiš does not succeed in forming the Government, Zeman could appoint an interim, in
fact presidential cabinet as in the past, or work towards calling of a new election. Nevertheless,
these prospects may be changed by the unpredictable epidemic development.

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