EPP Party Barometer March 2019 - The Situation of the European People s Party in the EU and an Outlook on the EP Elections - Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
EPP Party Barometer
March 2019
The Situation of the European People´s Party in the
EU and an Outlook on the EP Elections
(as of 29 March 2019)
Created by
Olaf Wientzek
Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung
Map templates by: www.kas.de
Janine Höhle, HA Kommunikation,
Konrad-Adenauer-StiftungSummary and latest developments
• The maps show the electoral results for parties belonging to the European People‘s Party (and in
one case the Socialists).
• The maps indicate the political affiliation of Heads of State and Government of EU member
countries. They also indicate which party family is leading in the national polls.
• Parties belonging to the EPP family are (in national polls) the strongest political family in 13*
countries . The Socialist family is leading in 5/6 (0/+1 compared to the last barometer), the
Eurosceptic Conservatives in 3 (-1), the Liberal family in 3. Independent movements (France), the
Greens (Lithuania) and the far-right (in Italy) are the strongest political family in one country each.
In Slovakia, Smer (S&D) and combined far-right parties are on the same level.
• If one looks only at the political colour of the strongest political force (and not the entire party
family), an EPP party is leading in 9* countries, the Socialists in 9, the ALDE in 4, the ECR in 3,
Greens, independents (Macron) and right-wing populists in one each
• In many countries, the advantage of the leading political family in the opinion polls is very slim
(France, Netherlands, Slovenia Slovakia, Finland, Belgium, Lithuania. Sweden).
• The EPP familiy enjoys a relatively strong support in the opinion polls (at or above 30%) in
Germany, Hungary*, Romania, Austria, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Portugal, Greece, Ireland, Malta
and Cyprus
• In the European Council, 9* Heads of State and Government belong to the EPP family, 8 to the
Liberals, 5 to the Socialists/Social Democrats, 2 to the Eurosceptic Conservatives, one to the
European Left. 3 are formally independent
* On 20 March, the EPP Political Assembly (supported by Fidesz) decided to suspend the EPP
membership of Fidesz. Without the party, the EPP would be the strongest pol. family in 12 countries,
provide the strongest single party in 8 countries and have 8 Head of State and Goverment in the EC.Bildnachweis: fotolia.com
Strongest political family in
opinion polls for nat. elections (March 2019)
Sweden
Finland
EPP Family
PES / S&D Family (Social Democrats & Socialists)
ACRE / ECR Family (Eurosceptic Conservatives)
Estonia
ALDE Family (Liberals)
Far-Right, Right-wing populists (ENF et al.) Latvia
Diverse populists
Denmark
GUE/NGL (Far-Left) Lithuania
Greens / EFA Ireland
Netherlands
Independents
Poland
United Kingdom
Germany
Belgium Slovakia
*On 20 March, the EPP and Fidesz decided
to suspend Fidesz‘ membership in the EPP
Luxembourg Czechia
Hungary*
France** 4. Romania**
Slovenia
Italy
Croatia
Bulgaria
2.
1.
Austria
Portugal
Spain
Greece
Cyprus
Malta
Created by: Olaf WientzekBildnachweis: fotolia.com
Strongest single party in
opinion polls for nat. elections (March 2019)
Sweden
Finland
EPP Family
PES / S&D Family (Social Democrats & Socialists)
ACRE / ECR Family (Eurosceptic Conservatives)
Estonia
ALDE Family (Liberals)
Far-Right, Right-wing populists (ENF et al.) Latvia
Diverse populists
Denmark
GUE/NGL (Far-Left) Lithuania
Greens / EFA Ireland
Netherlands
Independents
Poland
United Kingdom
Germany
Belgium Slovakia
*On 20 March, the EPP and Fidesz decided
to suspend Fidesz‘ membership in the EPP
Luxembourg Czechia
Hungary*
France 4. Romania
Slovenia
Italy
Croatia
Bulgaria
2.
1.
Austria
Portugal
Spain
Greece
Cyprus
Malta
Created by: Olaf WientzekBildnachweis: fotolia.com
Strongest party family in
opinion polls for EP-elections
Sweden
Finland
EPP Family
PES / S&D Family (Social Democrats & Socialists)
ACRE / ECR Family (Eurosceptic Conservatives)
Estonia
ALDE Family (Liberals)
Far-Right, Right-wing populists (ENF et al.) Latvia
Diverse populists
Denmark
GUE/NGL (Far-Left) Lithuania
Greens / EFA Ireland
Netherlands
Independents
Poland
So far no opinion United Kingdom
polls for EP elections
Germany
Belgium Slovakia
*On 20 March, the EPP and Fidesz decided
to suspend Fidesz‘ membership in the EPP
Luxembourg Czechia
Hungary*
France 4. Romania
Slovenia
Italy
Croatia
Bulgaria
2.
1.
Austria
Portugal
Spain
Greece
Cyprus
Malta
Created by: Olaf WientzekBildnachweis: fotolia.com
Election results of the strongest EPP member
party in the last national election
Sweden (2022)
19.84
in % / year of next election in brackets
Finland (2019)
18.20
0 – 5%
Estonia (2023)
5 – 10% 11.41
10 – 15% Latvia (2022)
15 – 20% 6.69
20 – 25% Denmark (2019)
Lithuania (2020)
3.40
25 – 30% Ireland (2021) 22.63
30 – 35% 25.50 Netherlands (2021)
12.40
35 – 40% Poland (2019)
United Kingdom (2022) 24.09
40 – 50%
0.00 Germany (2021)
Slovakia (2020)
32.90
5.80 6.50
Belgium (2019) Czechia (2021) *On 20 March, the EPP and Fidesz decided
to suspend Fidesz‘ membership in the EPP
11.61
Luxembourg (2023)
28.31 Hungary (2022)*
49.27 Romania (2020)
4.
France* (2022) 20.04
22.23
Italy (2023)
14.01 Croatia (2020)
36.27 Bulgaria (2021)
2.
1.
32.65
Austria (2022)
Portugal**** (2019) 31.50
Spain (2019)
36.86 Greece (2019)
33.01 Slovenia (2022) 28.10
24.92
Cyprus (2021)
Malta (2022) 30.69
Created by: Olaf Wientzek 43.68Bildnachweis: fotolia.com
Cumulated election results of all
parties belonging to the EPP family (29 March 2019)
Sweden
In %
26.16
Finland
21.74
0 – 5%
5 – 10%
Estonia
10 – 15%
11.41
15 – 20% Latvia
20 – 25% 6.69
25 – 30% Denmark
Lithuania
30 – 35% 4.20
Ireland 22.63
35 – 40% 25.50 Netherlands
40 – 50% 12.40
Poland
> 50% United Kingdom 29.22
0.00 Germany
Slovakia
32.90
11.11 15.76
Belgium Czechia *On 20 March, the EPP and Fidesz decided
to suspend Fidesz‘ membership in the EPP
16.60
Luxembourg
28.31 Hungary*
4.
49.27 Romania
France* 31.58
22.23
Italy
15.72 Croatia
36.27 Bulgaria
2.
1.
35.71
Austria
Portugal 31.50
Spain
36.86 Greece
33.01 Slovenia 28.10
34.70
Cyprus
Malta 30.69
Created by: Olaf Wientzek 43.68Bildnachweis: fotolia.com
Cumulated election results of the
PES/S&D family (Socialists Sweden
& Social Democrats) in the last 28.40
national parliamentary election (29 March 2019) Finland
In % 16.51
0 – 5%
5 – 10% Estonia
9.81
10 – 15%
Latvia
15 – 20%
19.80
20 – 25%
Denmark
Lithuania
25 – 30% 26.30
Ireland 15.04
30 – 35%
6.60 Netherlands
above 35 % 5.70
Poland
United Kingdom 7.55
40.00 Germany
Slovakia
20.50
7.27 28.28
Belgium Czechia
20.50
Luxembourg
17.60 Hungary
4.
17.27 Romania
France 45.68
6.06
Italy
18.72 Croatia
33.82 Bulgaria
2.
1.
27.19
Austria
Portugal 26.86
Spain
32.32 Greece
22.63 Slovenia 6.29
9.93
Cyprus
Malta 20.70
Created by: Olaf Wientzek 55.04Outlook on the EP elections in 2019
• Introductory remarks:
• A low turnout (or a different mobilisation rate among competing parties) may have a strong impact
• The prominence of the „Spitzenkandidat“/national top candidates may influence voter preferences
• With caution, the following statements can be made:
• Despite (significant) losses in several bigger member states, the EPP would likely remain the strongest political
family (174-199 seats) in the EP (24.7-28.2% of seats), 162-186 seats without Fidesz
• In relative terms, the share of the EPP group (currently 28.9% of the seats) would (in case of Brexit) only
moderately be reduced (-0.7% up to -4.2%), as the EPP Group would suffer less from the departure of the British
MEPs than other political groups (in comparison the S&D would be at ca. 19.6%, down from 25%)
• Parties of the far-right (ENF) and the far-left (GUE/NGL) would have a potential of about 20-23% of the seats.
• It is still unclear where the 5-Star-Movement will position itself.
• A coalition of EPP and S&D would not have a majority on its own but would need a third partner
• Depending on the scenario, 66-73% of MEPs would continue belonging to moderate political groups (EPP,
S&D, Liberals+Macron-led movement („Europe en Marche“), Greens)
• In comparison to the previous barometer the EPP increases slightly, the ECR as well. The ENF loses a few seats.
The EPP would still clearly remain the biggest group. There is no scenario in which Socialists, Liberals and Greens
have a majority of their own– especially keeping in mind that for a more solid majority in the EP, a coalition will
rather need up to 380-400 seats
• Due to several unknown variables (Will Macron form a group on his own or will he join the Liberals? Will the various
far-right parties manage to unite? Will the 5-Star-Movement form a group on its own? Will Fidesz remain in the EPP
Group after the elections? Will the UK participate in the EP elections?), five different scenarios will be developedPossible seat distribution in the coming
EP – Scenario 1 – Status Quo
• Presumptions: Party membership in the groups remains constant, the Eurosceptic EFDD Group (UKIP+5-Star-
Movement) may or may not survive, Macron may form a joint group with ALDE. Fidesz remains in the EPP.
Scenario 1.1: EFDD group survives Scenario 1.2: Macron joins the ALDE group, EFDD dissolves
21 Unaffiliated
29 32 Unaffiliated
47 29 Various far-right 47 47
Various far-right
EFDD
57 ENF 57 ENF
138 138
ECR ECR
52 52
EPP EPP
50 ALDE
50 ALDE+Macron
Macron
Greens/EFA Greens/EFA
186 186
22 74 96 S&D
S&D
GUE/NGL GUE/NGL
• With caution, the following statements can be made:
• A future majority would probably have to rely on the EPP, the S&D and ALDE. Other three-party-
constellations (EPP+Social Democrats+Greens) would arithmetically be possible but are politically
unlikelyPossible seat distribution in the coming
EP – Scenario 2 – Europe en Marche
• Presumptions: a new Europarty created by Macron („Europe en Marche“) successfully assembles liberal and
left-liberal pro-European forces; 2.2.: some of the unaffiliated forces join other Europarties, Wiosna and Syriza
join S&D, the 5-Star-Movement joins the Green/EFA Group. Fidesz remains in the EPP.
Scenario 2.1.: Macron-ALDE group absorbs many unaffiliated Scenario 2.2.: S&D, Greens absorb parties as well
10
32 Unaffiliated Unaffiliated
47 33 Various far-right
40 32
Various far-right
57
57 ENF ENF
137 152 52
52 ECR ECR
EPP EPP
50 ALDE+Macron ALDE+Macron
72
Greens/EFA 186 Greens/EFA
186
111 S&D S&D
104
GUE/NGL GUE/NGL
• With caution, the following statements can be made:
• A joint political group of Macron and ALDE would become one of the three big groups, but would
remain smaller than the S&D group
• If (scenario 2.2) pro-European groups manage to integrate many of the yet undecided parties, the pro-
European groups might receive up to 73% of the seatsPossible seat distribution in the coming
EP – Scenario 3 – United Radicals
• Presumption: far-right and far-left parties manage to reunite in fewer groups and absorb unaffiliated
parties. Scenario 3.1.: The 5-Star-Movement manages to create a group on its own, the ECR absorbs some
of the far-right parties. Scenario 3.2: The ENF manages to absorb more far-right parties than the ECR. Fidesz
remains in the EPP.
Scenario 3.1.: 5stars manage to form a group, strong ECR Scenario 3.2.: The ENF absorbs most of the far-right
3 3 3 3
30 Unaffiliated Unaffiliated
47 71 Various far-right 73 84 Various far-right
ENF ENF
67 54
ECR
145 ECR
145 EPP
EPP
ALDE-EEM
ALDE+Macron
Greens/EFA
186 53 186
49 S&D Greens/EFA
104 5StarsPlus 104 S&D
GUE/NGL GUE/NGL
• With caution, the following statements can be made:
• The perspectives for a new group headed by the Five-Star-Movement remain uncertain.
• Parties from the far-left and the far-right would have a potential of approx. 20-23%Possible seat distribution in the coming
EP – Scenario 4 – EPP without Fidesz
• Presumption: Fidesz is eventually is excluded/leaves the EPP and joins the ECR Group in the EP.
21 3
Unaffiliated
55 Various far-right
72
ENF
145 78 ECR
EPP
ALDE+Macron
53
174 Greens/EFA
104 S&D
GUE/NGL
• With caution, the following statements can be made:
• ECR incl. Fidesz could – if Lega was to join (+27 seats) – become approx. as strong as the
Liberals+Macron
• The EPP Group would remain the strongest political group, even though the gap towards the Socialists
would shrinkPossible seat distribution in the coming
EP – Scenario 5 – No Brexit (yet)
• Presumption: The United Kingdom participates in the EP elections. The EP would thus have 751 seats and
those countries who were expecting additional seats will keep merely their old number of seats. Scenario
5.2.: Fidest joins the ECR, MEPs from the UK do not join the EPP and the 5-Star/UKIP/Brexit-group remains
(without AfD).
Scenario 5.1.: No Brexit, Fidesz with EPP Scenario 5.2.: Fidesz joins the ECR; 5-Stars and UKIP/Brexit form a pol. group
4 1 4
Unaffiliated Unaffiliated
47 41 47
Various far-right 73 Various far-right
73 40
ENF ENF
162 90
78 ECR ECR (incl. Fidesz)
EPP 162 EPP
ALDE+Macron ALDE+Macron
58
Greens/EFA 167 Greens/EFA
179
S&D 58 S&D
109
GUE/NGL 109 5-Stars/UKIP
GUE/NGL
• With caution, the following statements can be made:
• In 5.1. the EPP Group would remain the largest group. In 5.2. the S&D would come close to the EPP
• For now, a possible UK result in the EP elections seems to be very difficult to predict, as opinion
polls seem rather volatile (and turnout may become a crucial issue)Outlook on the EP elections in 2019 -
Summary
• Based on current opinion polls and weighing the different scenarios, the following
seat distribution seems likely:
• EPP: 180-190 seats (without Fidesz 168-177 seats)
• S&D: 140-150 seats, without Brexit up to slightly more than 160 seats
• ALDE (plus Macron): 100-110 seats
• Greens/EFA: 50-55 seats, with 5-Star-Movement approx. 70 seats
• ECR: ca. 60 seats, with Fidesz above 70 seats
• GUE/NGL: 50-60 seats
• ENF: 70-75 seats
• Potential Five-Star-Movement-group: rather unlikely as they may not meet the
target for group formation (25 MEPs from at least 7 countries), potential: 25-35 seats,
in case of UKIP joining ca. 40 seats possible
• EFDD rather unlikely to survive as a parliamentary group (not necessarily due to
the numbers but for political reasons)Bildnachweis: fotolia.com
Results of parties belonging to the
EPP family in the 2014 EP elections Sweden
in %
19.58
Finland
27.80
0 – 5%
5 – 10%
Estonia
10 – 15%
13.90
15 – 20% Latvia
20 – 25% 46.19
25 – 30% Denmark
Lithuania
30 – 35% 9.10
Ireland 17.43
35 – 40% 22.28 Netherlands
40 – 45% 15.18
Poland
> 45% United Kingdom² 38.93
0.00 Germany
Slovakia
35.30
25.90 33.32
Belgium Czechia
16.89
Luxembourg
37.66 Hungary
4.
51.48 Romania
France 40.63
20.81
Italy
21.69 Croatia
34.15 (41.42) Bulgaria
2.
1.
36.85
Austria
Portugal 26.98
Spain
29.95 Greece
26.99 Slovenia 22.72
41.44
Cyprus
Malta 37.75
Created by: Olaf Wientzek 40.02Bildnachweis: fotolia.com
Strongest party family in the
2014 EP elections
Sweden
Finland
EPP Family
PES / S&D Family (Social Democrats, Socialists)
ACRE / ECR Family (Eurosceptic Conservatives)
Estonia
ALDE Family (Liberals)
Far-right, right wing populists (ENF et al.) Latvia
Misc. populists
Denmark
GUE/NGL (Far-left) Lithuania
Greens /EFA Ireland
Netherlands
Independents
Poland
United Kingdom
Germany
Slovakia
Belgium Czechia
Luxembourg
Hungary
4. Romania 1 The Socialists were the strongest force
immediately after the elections. Due to PNL
France Joining the EPP, the EPP is now the stronger
political family
Italy
Croatia
Bulgaria
2.
1.
Austria
Portugal
Spain
Greece
Slovenia
Cyprus
Malta
Created by: Olaf WientzekGovernment participation of
the EPP familyBildnachweis: fotolia.com
Government participation of parties
affiliated to the EPP,
as of 29 March₁ Sweden
Finland
Government without EPP participation, but
Head of State belongs to the EPP family
Estonia**
**Isamaa is taking part in gov. formation
Parties of the EPP family are part
talks
of the government (shaded: government
negotiations ongoing, particpation unclear) Latvia
Head of State or Government
belongs to the EPP family Denmark
Lithuania
Ireland
Netherlands
Poland
United Kingdom
Germany
Slovakia
*On 20 March, the EPP and Fidesz decided
to suspend Fidesz‘ membership in the EPP
Belgium Czechia
Luxembourg
Hungary*
4. Romania
France
Italy
Croatia
Bulgaria
2.
1.
Austria
Portugal
Spain
Greece
Slovenia
Cyprus
Malta
Created by: Olaf WientzekBildnachweis: fotolia.com
Heads of State and Government and their
political family (as of 29 March)
Sweden
Finland
EPP: Christian Democrats; Centre-Right
PES/S&D: Social Democrats / Socialists
ACRE/ECR: Eurosceptic Conservatives
Estonia
A
ALDE: Liberals
Greens/EFA Latvia
Div. populists
Denmark
Far-Left (GUE/NGL) Lithuania
Far-Right Ireland
Netherlands
Independent
Poland
United Kingdom
Germany
Slovakia
*On 20 March, the EPP and Fidesz decided
to suspend Fidesz‘ membership in the EPP
Belgium Czechia
Luxembourg
Hungary*
4. Romania₁ 1 The President (EPP family) re-
presents Romania in the European
France Council. The Prime Minister
belongs to the Socialist family.
Italy² Croatia
Bulgaria
2.
1.
Austria
Portugal
Spain
Greece
Slovenia
Cyprus
²Conte is independent, but Malta
Created by: Olaf Wientzek was a 5Stelle candidateBildnachweis: fotolia.com
The EPP Family in the EU –
Which parties belong to
the EPP? Sweden
Moderaterna (MOD)
Kristdemokraterna (KD)
Finland
Kokoomus
(SK) KD
Estonia
Isamaa
Latvia
Vienotiba
Denmark
Lithuania
DKF (C)
Ireland TS-LKD
KD
Fine Gael Netherlands
CDA
Poland
United Kingdom PO
(no EPP member party) Germany PSL
Slovakia
CDU /
CSU Czechia KDH
Belgium KDU-CSL *On 20 March, the EPP and Fidesz decided
Most-Hid to suspend Fidesz‘ membership in the EPP
CD&V, CDH, CSP² TOP 09
SMK
Luxembourg
CSV Hungary
4.
Fidesz* / Romania
France* PNL
KDNP
Les Républicains PMP
Italy
Croatia RMDSZ
Forza Italia
SVP HDZ Bulgaria
2.
AP GERB
UDC
1.
Austria BCM
Portugal PATT DSB
Spain ÖVP
UDF
PSD Greece
PP Slovenia
CDS-PP SDS ND
N.Si
SLS
Cyprus
Malta DISY
Created by: Olaf Wientzek PNNotes
* The figures for France refer to the LR results achieved in the second round of the parliamentary elections; the shares of votes obtained by independent rights (1.68%) or by the UDI (ALDE) are not included.
** There have been no polls in France on the legislative elections since the last national parliamentary elections, only on European elections, for Romania the ISCOP polls on the EP elections are also used for
the national level.
*** In Belgium, polls are conducted at the regional level. In order to obtain an adequate result at the national level, these results were weighted according to the number of voters (compulsory voting).
Despite compulsory voting and the relatively similar voter turnout in the various regions, there may be small discrepancies. In Belgium, the partner parties CD&V, CSP and CDH only compete on a
regional basis, and the results in the individual regions are weighted accordingly. The CSP only takes part in European elections. In national elections, it is part of the CDH because the Belgian House
of Representatives is composed by region (Flanders, Wallonia, Brussels) and not by language community. In Luxembourg, the polls are conducted regionally, the results being weighted according
to the number of voters (compulsory voting) to calculate the national strength. Despite compulsory voting and the relatively similar voter turnout in the various regions, small deviations may occur.
**** In Portugal, a PSD and CDS-PP electoral alliance was formed in the last national elections, so both values of the PSD are not comparable with the result of the parliamentary elections.
Further notes:
In several countries (e. g. Slovenia, Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania), the undecided and non-voters are included in the total (100%) in the polls. The poll values have been extrapolated accordingly.
Example: Party A has 13% in the polls. 30% of respondents will not vote. 20% of respondents are undecided. Accordingly, support for Party A is reported to be 26%.
In Croatia, the EPP party HSS was a member of the Social Democratic People's Coalition in the elections and did not receive a separate result. Correspondingly, the data are not quite comparable;
the calculation of the difference has not been made. The election result noted for the Social Democrats therefore refers to the entire electoral alliance, which also did not include PES parties (such as
the HSS). End of February the HSS announced its willingness to leave the EPP.
In Germany, the CDU and CSU are not listed as two separate parties due to the faction community and the always aggregated polling figures.
Some of the parties in the ACRE family are right-wing populist or have strong right-wing populist positions. Since this is a now (or for the time being) an established party family, parties belonging
to it are listed as part of the ACRE family and not as "right-wing populist". This category, on the other hand, includes the parties belonging to the ENF or EFDD group in the EP, as well as other
independent right-wing populist or right-wing extremist forces.
1 The list usually refers to the heads of government. Heads of state (in the case of a different party affiliation than the government) are only shown (separately) if they are represented in the European
Council (case of Iohannis in Romania). In the case of France, no EPP participation in the government is shown, since the official EPP party LR is not officially part of the government.
² While the EPP has no member party in the UK, since February 2018, two Tory MEPs have switched from the ECR Group to the EPP Group
Sources for polls: Ipsos (Belgium), Trend (Bulgaria), voxmeter (Denmark), Forsa (Germany), TAS (Estonia), Kantar (Finland), Ifop (France), Metron (Greece), YouGov (UK),BA (Ireland), EMG (Italy), Ipsos
(Croatia), SDKS (Latvia), Vilmorus (Lithuania), Sondesfro (Luxembourg), Malta Today (Malta), I&O (Netherlands), RA (Austria), Ibris (Poland), Aximage (Portugal), ISCOP (Romania), Inizio (Sweden),
Focus (Slovakia), Mediana (Slovenia), NC Report (Spain), CVVM (Czechia), Závecz Research (Hungary), Prime Consulting (Cyprus)
The party barometer is updated every four weeks and available on www.kas.de .You can also read
