EPP Party Barometer May 2021 - The Situation of the European People's Party in the EU - Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung
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EPP Party Barometer
May 2021
The Situation of the European People’s Party in the EU
prepared by
Dr. Olaf Wientzek
(Graphic template: Janine www.kas.de
Höhle, HA Kommunikation,
Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung)Summary and latest developments
• The EPP family has come out as the strongest political family in polls in 13 countries;
the Party of European Socialists (PES) in 5 (if you add Slovakia’s Hlas, which is not yet
officially a PES member); Liberals/Renew in 2; far-right populists (ID) in Italy and Finland;
the Eurosceptic/national conservative ECR in Poland. In Hungary and Latvia (combined),
independent parties are front-running. If you take the polls on the presidential candidates
in France as a benchmark, right-wing populists and Liberals/Renew are running neck and
neck. In Czechia, several parties compete in electoral alliances. If STAN (EPP group but not
EPP party) is counted as part of the EPP family, the EPP, at 21 %, would be just ahead of
ANO (20%), which is part of ALDE.
• The picture is similar if we look at the strongest single party and not the largest party
family: Then the EPP is ahead in 12 countries; the Socialists in 6; the Liberals in 3; far-
right populists (ID) in 3; the ECR in one country; Fidesz is in the lead in Hungary. In France,
ID and Renew are even with each other.
• 8 of the 27 heads of state and government in the European Council are currently
members of the EPP family (9 of 27 if you count the Slovak prime minister, whose party is
a part of the EPP group but not the EPP party); 7 heads of state and government are
members of the Liberals/Renew; 6 of the Social Democrats/Socialists; one the Eurosceptic
conservatives; 4 are formally independent.
• The seemingly clear picture belies the fact that in many countries the winning margin of
the leading party family (in many cases, the EPP) is extremely narrow (especially in
Germany, Belgium, Latvia, Lithuania, Ireland, Italy, Finland, Sweden, Spain, Cyprus), thus
within the margin of error; with other polling agencies, other party families are ahead
(Germany, Latvia, Ireland, Romania).Picture credits: fotolia.com
Strongest political family
in national polls (May 2021)
Sweden
Finland
EPP family (shaded: membership suspended)
PES/S&D Family (Social Democrats, Socialists)
ACRE/ECR Family (Eurosceptic Conservatives)
Estonia
ALDE + Renew Family (Liberals)
Far-right populists (ID) Latvia
Misc. populists
Denmark Lithuania
GUE/NGL (far-left populists)
The Greens/EFA Ireland
Netherlands
Independents
No parliamentary polls since Poland *Hlas is not yet a PES member but
the EP election the party largely consists of former
Germany Smer representatives, including
Slovakia* former prime minister Pellegrini
** In Czechia, several parties take part in
Belgium Czechia the election in the form of electoral
*** In France, no surveys are conducted on alliances. If STAN (EPP group) is included in
the composition of the National Assembly. the EPP family, the EPP, at 21%, would be
The figures relate to the leading candidates Luxembourg just ahead of ALDE, which belongs to ANO
of the parties for the presidential election. Austria Hungary (20%)
4. Romania
France***
Slovenia
Italy
Croatia
Bulgaria
2.
1.
Portugal
Spain
Greece
Cyprus
Malta
Created by: Olaf WientzekPicture credits: fotolia.com
Strongest single party
in national polls (May 2021)
Sweden
Finland
EPP Family
PES/S&D Family (Social Democrats, Socialists)
ACRE/ECR Family (Eurosceptic Conservatives)
Estonia
ALDE + Renew Family (Liberals)
Far-right populists (ID et al.) Latvia
Misc. populists
Denmark Lithuania
GUE/NGL (far-left populists)
The Greens/EFA Ireland
Netherlands
Independents
Poland
Germany
Slovakia*
*Hlas is not yet a PES member but
the party largely consists of former
Belgium Czechia Smer representatives, including
*** In France, no surveys are conducted on former prime minister Pellegrini
the composition of the National Assembly.
The figures relate to the leading candidates Luxembourg
of the parties for the presidential election.
Austria Hungary
4. Romania
France***
Slovenia
Italy
Croatia
Bulgaria
2.
1.
Portugal
Spain
Greece
Cyprus
Malta
Created by: Olaf WientzekStrength of the EPP family in
EU member statesPicture credits: fotolia.com
Cumulated election results of all EPP parties in the
last national parliamentary elections
Sweden
as a percentage / in brackets (including parties that belong to
26.16
the EPP group but are not members of the EPP)
Finland
20.90
Legend
Estonia
0 – 5% 11.41
5 – 10% Latvia
10 – 15% 6.69
15 – 20% Denmark Lithuania
8.30
20 – 25% Ireland 25.77
25 – 30% 20.90 Netherlands
9.50 (13.90)
30 – 35% Poland
United Kingdom 35.95*
35 – 40%
0.00 Germany
40 – 50% Slovakia
32.90
11.11 (16.41) 14.08 (39.10)
> 50% Belgium Czechia
12.59
Luxembourg
28.31 Hungary*
Romania *In 2018, Fidesz was still a full
4.
49.27 member of the EPP
France 35.75
22.23
Italy
15.72 Croatia **EPP parties are in electoral
37.26 Bulgaria** alliances with non-EPP parties in
2. Bulgaria. The results attained by
1.
31.85 these alliances are divided by the
number of partners.
Austria
Portugal 37.46
Spain
32.00 Greece
20.82 Slovenia 39.85
34.70
Cyprus
Malta 30.69
43.68
Created by: Olaf WientzekPicture credits: fotolia.com
Cumulated poll ratings of all EPP parties in
national polls as of: May 2021
Sweden (2022)
as a percentage/bold: initials of the strongest EPP party in the
polls // in brackets (parties that belong to the EPP group but 28.30
are not members of the EPP) Finland (2023)
20.80
Legend
Estonia (2023)
0 – 5% 4.80
5 – 10% Latvia (2022)
16.80
10 – 15%
Denmark (2023) Lithuania (2024)
15 – 20%
16.10
Ireland (2025) 23.70
20 – 25%
30.00 Netherlands (2025)
25 – 30%
7.70 (11.70)
30 – 35% Poland (2023)
22.51
35 – 40% Germany (2021)
Slovakia (2024)
40 – 50% 26.00
10.00 (21.00) 9.60 (19.60)
> 50% Belgium (2024) Czechia (2021)
11.21
*** In France, no surveys are conducted on Luxembourg (2023) *The KDNP is on the ballot with
the composition of the National Assembly. 25.70 Hungary* Fidesz; therefore separate figures are
The figures relate to the average figures for 4.
Romania (2024) not determined
the LR candidates of the parties for the France*** (2022) 35.00
presidential election.
13.50 Italy (2023) **EPP parties are in electoral
Croatia (2024) alliances with non-EPP parties in
8.10 Bulgaria. The results attained by
35.22 Bulgaria (2021)** these alliances are divided by the
30.55 number of partners.
2.
1.
Austria (2024)
Portugal (2023) 35.00
Spain (2023)
29.90 Greece (2023)
26.90 Slovenia (2022) 42.00
36.21
Cyprus (2021)
Malta (2022)
25.70
Created by: Olaf Wientzek 39.11Picture credits: fotolia.com
Comparison of May 2021 poll results
of all EPP parties compared to
last national elections (cumulative)Sweden
+2.14
as a percentage Finland
-0.10
Legend
Estonia
-10 to - 20%
-6.81
- 5 to - 10%
Latvia
- 1 to - 5% +10.11
- 1 to + 1% Denmark Lithuania
+ 1 to + 5% +7.80 -2.07
Ireland
+ 5 to + 10% +9.10 Netherlands
Above + 10% -1.80/-2.20
Poland
No polls since -13.44
since election, or Germany
election took place Slovakia
-6.90
fewer than six Belgium 4.48 (-19.50)
Czechia
weeks ago -1.38 -1.11 (+4.59)
*** In France, no surveys are conducted on
the composition of the National Assembly. Luxembourg Austria *The KDNP is on the ballot with
The figures relate to the leading candidates -2.61 Hungary* Fidesz; therefore separate figures are
of the parties for the presidential election. If 4.
-2.46 Romania not determined
there are several candidates, the average France*** -0.75
figure is determined.
-8.73 Italy **EPP parties are in electoral
Croatia alliances with non-EPP parties in
-7.62 Bulgaria. The results attained by
-2.04 Bulgaria** these alliances are divided by the
-1.30 number of partners.
2.
1.
Portugal
Spain
-2.10 +6.08 Greece
Slovenia +2.15
+1.51
Cyprus
Malta -4.99
Created by: Olaf Wientzek +4.57Picture credits: fotolia.com
Cumulated 2019 European elections results
of EPP parties
Sweden
as a percentage
25.40
Legend Finland
25.70
0 – 5%
5 – 10%
Estonia
10 – 15%
10.30
15 – 20% Latvia
20 – 25% 26.24
25 – 30% Denmark Lithuania
30 – 35% 6.20
Ireland 19.74
35 – 40% 29.60 Netherlands ** In Poland, politicians from different party
40 – 45% 12.18 (19.48) families were on the list that is headed and
dominated by EPP parties
Poland
> 45% United Kingdom 38.47**
0.00 (3.30²) Germany
Slovakia
28.86
18.89 32.55
Belgium Czechia
12.62
Luxembourg
21.10 Hungary
4.
52.56 Romania
France 42.42
8.48
Italy
10.04 Croatia
22.72 (27.12) Bulgaria
2.
1.
37.13
Austria
Portugal 34.60
Spain
28.13 Greece
20.15 Slovenia 33.12
37.50
Cyprus
Malta 29.00
Created by: Olaf Wientzek
37.90Picture credits: fotolia.com
Comparison of May 2021 poll results
off all parties in the PPE group
compared to EP elections (cumulative)
Sweden
+2.90
as a percentage Finland
-4.90
Legend
Estonia
-10 to - 20%
-5.50
- 5 to - 10%
Latvia
- 1 to - 5% -9.44
- 1 to + 1% Denmark Lithuania
+ 1 to + 5% +9.90 +3.96
Ireland
+ 5 to + 10% +0.40 Netherlands ** In Poland, politicians from different party
families were on the list that is headed and
Above + 10% -7.78 dominated by EPP parties; hence the
Poland** difference would be less pronounced in
No polls since -15.96 terms of seats
since election, or Germany
election took place Slovakia
-2.86
fewer than six Belgium -12.95
Czechia
weeks ago -1.41
*** In France, no surveys are conducted on +2.11
the composition of the National Assembly.
The figures relate to the leading candidates Luxembourg Austria *The KDNP is on the ballot with
+3.60 Hungary* Fidesz; therefore separate figures are
of the parties for the presidential election. If
4.
+0.40 Romania not determined
there are several candidates, the average
figure is determined. France*** -7.42
+5.02
Italy
Croatia
-1.94
+8.10 Bulgaria
2.
-6.58
1.
Portugal
Spain
+1.77 +6.75 Greece
Slovenia +8.88
-1.29
Cyprus
Malta -3.30
Created by: Olaf Wientzek +1.21Scenarios for the EP
Scenario 1: The landscape of political
groups in the EP remains unchanged
Unaffiliated
44 66 ID
78 ECR
133
EPP
64
Renew
65
Greens/EFA
90 165 S&D
GUE/NGL
• Note: One must be cautious when transferring the results of national polls to the EP elections
since other empirical data from previous EP elections (election turnout, popularity of a party in
terms of European policies vs. national popularity of a party, etc.) are included in the calculation.
• Despite the departure of Fidesz, the EPP remains the strongest force, albeit with slight losses
(165 instead of 178 MEPs).
• The losses are primarily (but not exclusively) due to the weaker polls in Poland and Germany in
comparison with the EP elections – possible gains in France and Spain can compensate for it only
to a limited extent.
• All in all, the number of seats for the EPP would be in the range of 154 to 174 mandates.Scenario 2: Fidesz, Lega, PiS form a new
alliance (“ECR 3.0”)
Unaffiliated
44 49
ID
71
133 ECR 3.0
91 EPP
Renew
65
Greens/EFA
90 162 S&D
GUE-NGL
• Scenario: A new alliance between Lega, Fidesz and PiS absorbs parties from ID, members without any
parliamentary faction and a few from the EPP. RN and FPÖ would not be part of the new formation.
• Note: One must be cautious when transferring the results of national polls to the EP elections since other
empirical data from previous EP elections (election turnout, popularity of a party in terms of European
policies vs. national popularity of a party, etc.) are included in the calculation.
• The rivalries in the camp of right-wing parties (currently) hamper the creation of a larger joint formation that
could become the second-strongest force (Lega vs. FdI in Italy; AfD out of the question as a partner for many
in the ECR; N-VA vs. VB in Belgium; Romanian AUR not to be in one faction with Fidesz)
• ECR and ID together would have approximately the potential of the EPP group.
• A new situation would arise if the ECR’s reservations about RN were to be overcome.
• This scenario does not assume that there will be a flight of moderate parties toward the centre.The EPP family’s participation
in governmentPicture credits: fotolia.com
The participation of EPP family parties
EPP family, as at: May 2021
Sweden
Government without the participation of an EPP party, but
Finland
with a representative in the European Council
belonging to the EPP family
Parties in the EPP family participating in a government
Estonia
(from left bottom to right top hatched: possibly
outgoing government; participation unclear)
Latvia
Head of state/government
belongs to EPP family
Denmark Lithuania***
***The TS-LKD is the largest governing
(from left bottom to right top party; prime minister Simonyte is not
hatched: affiliated with a party; however, she
possibly outgoing/incoming was the candidate for the office of
government) Ireland prime minister on the part of TS-LKD.
Netherlands
**The party to which Slovakia’s head of
Poland government belongs is part of the EPP
bloc in the European Parliament but is
not part of the EPP party
Germany
Slovakia**
Belgium Czechia
Luxembourg *In Bulgaria, an independent interim
Hungary government
4. Romania is holding office until the elections
France
Italy
Croatia
Bulgaria*
2.
1.
Austria
Portugal
Spain
Greece
Slovenia
Cyprus
Malta
Created by: Olaf WientzekPicture credits: fotolia.com
Heads of state or government according to
their political family (as of: May 2021)
(the constitutionally stronger position is decisive and – Sweden
in the case of EU states – participation in the European Council)
Finland
EPP: Christian Democrats, Centre-Right Parties
PES/S&D: Social Democrats & Socialists
ACRE/ECR: Eurosceptic Conservatives
Estonia
A
ALDE +Renew (mainly Liberals)
The Greens/EFA Latvia
Misc. populists
****President Nauseda is independent,
Denmark Lithuania***
prime minister Simonyte is not
Far-left populists (GUE/NGL) affiliated with a party but she was the
candidate for the office of prime
Far-right populists (ID) minister on the part of TS-LKD.
Ireland Netherlands
Independents
Poland ** The party of Slovakia’s head of
government is part of the EPP group in
the European Parliament but is not part
Germany of the EPP party
Slovakia**
Belgium Czechia
Luxembourg
Hungary
4. Romania₁
France *In Bulgaria, an independent interim
Croatia government
Italy is holding office until the elections
Bulgaria
2.
1.
Austria
Portugal
Spain
Greece
Slovenia
Cyprus
Malta
Created by: Olaf WientzekPicture credits: fotolia.com
The EPP Family in the EU –
Which parties belong
to the EPP? Sweden
Moderaterna (MOD)
Kristdemokraterna (KD)
Finland
Kokoomus
(SK) KD
Estonia
Isamaa
Latvia
(Jauna) Vienotiba
Denmark Lithuania
DKF (C)
Ireland TS-LKD
KD
Fine Gael Netherlands
CDA
Poland
PO
Germany PSL
Slovakia
CDU
CSU Czechia KDH
Belgium KDU-CSL
Most-Hid
CD&V, CDH, CSP² TOP 09
SMK
Luxembourg Spolu
Hungary
CSV 4.
KDNP Romania
PNL
France* PMP
Italy
Les Républicains Croatia RMDSZ/UDMR
Forza Italia
SVP HDZ Bulgaria
AP
2.
GERB
UDC
1.
Austria BCM
Portugal PATT DSB
Spain ÖVP (NVP) PpI UDF
PSD Greece
PP Slovenia
CDS-PP SDS ND
N.Si
SLS
Cyprus
Malta DISY
Created by: Olaf Wientzek PNNotes
**In France, no polls for national parliamentary elections have been done since the elections in June 2017. The results refer to the
second round of parliamentary elections.
In order to obtain an adequate result at national level, these results were each weighted according to the number of eligible voters (there is compulsory voting).
Despite compulsory voting and the relatively similar number of voters at elections in the different regions, small deviations may occur. In Belgium, the CD&V, CSP
and CDH partner parties only compete regionally. The results in the individual regions are weighted accordingly. The CSP only competes in European elections. At
national elections, it is a part of the CDH since the Belgian parliament is composed according to regions (Flanders, Wallonia, Brussels) and not according to
language community. In Luxembourg, polls are conducted regionally. The results are weighted according to the number of voters (there is compulsory voting) in
order to calculate a party’s national strength. Despite compulsory voting and the relatively similar number of voters at elections in the different regions, small
deviations may occur.
Further notes:
In several countries, undecided and non-voters are included as part of the total sum (100%) in the polls. The poll results are extrapolated accordingly. Example:
Party A has 13% in the polls. 30% of respondents will not vote, and 20% of the respondents are undecided. Accordingly, support for Party A is reported to be
26%.
In Germany, the CDU and CSU are not listed as two separate parties owing to the fact they form a single parliamentary bloc and that their poll results are
always added together.
In several countries, parties are part of the EPP bloc without belonging to the EPP. Some of them even belong to other party families, for example, CU and 50
Plus in the Netherlands, STAN in Czechia and Olano in Slovakia. Their respective results are given in brackets.
Some of the parties in the ACRE/ECR family are right-wing populist or have strong right-wing populist elements. As the ACRE family is now (or is for the time
being) a mainstream party family, the parties belonging to it are listed as part of the ACRE family and not as “right-wing populist”. By contrast, the “right-wing
populist” category contains parties belonging to the ENF or the EFDD Group in the European Parliament, as well as other right-wing populist or right-wing
extremist forces.
1. Slide 16: The list usually refers to the heads of government. Heads of State (in the case of a government of a different party) are only indicated
(separately) if they are represented in the European Council (the case of Johannis in Romania). In the case of France, no participation of the EPP in the
government is indicated since the official EPP party LR is not in the government.
2. Slide 18: The CSP is not a member of the EPP but is part of the EPP group.
Sources for polls:
Ipsos (Belgium), Trend (Belgium), Voxmeter (Denmark), Kantar /Emnid (Germany), Norstat (Estonia), Kantar TNS (Finland), Harris (France), Pulse/RC (Greece), RedC
(Ireland), EMG (Italy), Ipsos (Croatia), Factum (Latvia), Spinter tymai (Lithuania), Sondesfro (Luxembourg), Malta Today (Malta), Ipsos (Netherlands) RA (Austria), Ibris
(Poland), Eurosondagem (Portugal), internoder CURS (Romania), Demoskop (Sweden), Focus (Slovakia), Mediana (Slovenia), NC Report (Spain), Kantar (Czechia),
Zavecz (Hungary), Pulse (Cyprus)
Contact person
Dr. Olaf Wientzek
Email: olaf.wientzek@kas.de / olwien@hotmail.comYou can also read
