GLOBAL PREDICTIONS FOR 2021 - Why they might be wrong & other perils of perception - Ipsos
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GLOBAL PREDICTIONS FOR 2021 Why they might be wrong & other perils of perception Document produced by Ipsos for the World Economic Forum Davos 21 virtual meeting January 2021 © Ipsos 2021
What does the
global public
expect for 2021?
© Ipsos
© Ipsos 2021
| Doc Name | Month Year | Version # | Public | Internal/Client Use Only | Strictly Confidential
IMPACT OF COVID-19 CONTINUES
61%
Likely that most people will
60%
Likely that a successful vaccine
Hopes wear a mask in public places a
year from now
for COVID-19 will become widely
available
and
Fears
52%
Unlikely that life will have got
59%
Unlikely that the world will change
back to normal after the effects for the better because of the
of the COVID-19 pandemic pandemic
Base: c. 15,700 online interviews across 31 markets, 23 October – 6 November 2020
© Ipsos 2021
3
UNITED GLOBAL CONCERN FOR THE ENVIRONMENT
Middling 75% 54%
hopes for Likely that average global
temperatures will increase
Agree the global economy will be
stronger in 2021 than in 2020
economic
recovery,
but not
an equal 66%
Likely that income inequality
51%
one will increase
Unlikely that women will be paid
the same as men for the same
work
Base: c. 15,700 online interviews across 31 markets, 23 October – 6 November 2020.
© Ipsos 2021
4
WILL THE WAY WE LIVE OUR LIVES CHANGE?
57%
Likely that people will spend
34%
Likely that the number of people
more money buying things living in big cities will shrink
Lifestyle online than in stores
changes
36%
Likely that robots will look, think
31%
Likely that they will feel lonely
and speak like humans most of the time
Base: c. 15,700 online interviews across 31 markets, 23 October – 6 November 2020
© Ipsos 2021
5
STILL, AFTER A TERRIBLE YEAR, THERE ARE HOPES…
90%
Agree 2020 was a bad
Up 25 points from
last year
… that year for their market
2021
will be
better
77%
Optimistic that 2021 will
But no better than
previous years
be better than 2020
Base: c. 15,700 online interviews across 31 markets, 23 October – 6 November 2020
© Ipsos 2021
6
BUT CAN WE ALWAYS
TRUST OUR OPINIONS?
We need to
understand the perils
of perception.
Why we are wrong
about nearly
everything.
© Ipsos 2021
© Ipsos 2021
EVEN MANY EXPERT PREDICTIONS ARE WRONG …
© Ipsos 2021
8
THE PERILS OF PERCEPTION STUDIES …
Well over … guess the From Reflects Ipsos’ The public are
100,000 reality for their immigration to real commitment often incredibly
interviews, in country and vaccine safety, to understanding wrong – raises
up to 40 compare obesity levels society questions: why,
countries … to murder rates, and what can we
happiness to sex do about it?
…
9 © Ipsos 2021
WHY IS IT IMPORTANT TO HAVE A DEEPER UNDERSTANDING
OF PERCEPTUAL BIASES?
Not measuring ignorance – …which can provide clues Our perceptions also
measuring what people to what people are highlight what we think of
believe to be true… worried/not worried about certain behaviours/how we
view other people and what
we think are social norms
Can help uncover why And how/if we can make
people believe what they do people better informed
and which biases are
having the biggest
influence on them
10 © Ipsos 2021MISPERCEPTIONS EXIST ACROSS ALL WALKS OF LIFE –
MANY MORE THAN THE EXAMPLES BELOW
On average, across the world …
Hardly anyone
Immigration is Climate change is Sexual harassment
realises the murder
over-estimated under-estimated is under-estimated
rate is falling
People think People guess 9 of the Across Europe and the Only 16% of people
immigrants make up last 18 years were the US, people guess correctly state that the
28% of their hottest on record – the 39% of women have murder rate has fallen
population – the true true figure was17 experienced sexual in their country since
figure was 12% harassment – the true 2000
figure is 60%
Source: Ipsos Perils of Perception 2018 (28,115 online interviews Sept –Oct 2018 in 37 countries)
Source: Ipsos Perils of Perception 2017 (29,113 online interviews Sept –Oct 2017 in 38 countries)
11 © Ipsos 2021WHEN WE ASK THEM, PEOPLE TEND TO BLAME OTHERS
(A few even blame the facts themselves)
People often get lots of things wrong about their countries and how they’re changing, for example,
what proportion of the population are immigrants, or whether the crimerate is going up or down.
Which of these, if any, do you think are the biggest reasons for this?
Politicians mislead people 52%
… but The media misleads people 49%
should People have a biased view, for example they focus on negative things/think
things are getting worse/generalise from their own experience
43%
we look Social media misleads people 41%
in the It’s often the figures that are wrong, not people’s views
People are bad with numbers so they struggle with trying to estimate things
18%
18%
mirror? like this
None of these 3%
Don't know 10%
Base: 19,243 online adults under 65 in 27 countries, June - July 2018 | Source: Ipsos Global Advisor
© Ipsos 2021
12WHY DO THESE EXIST? A WIDE RANGE OF CAUSES… How we think What we’re told Maths and Biases and Rational Media Social Politics Our own statistical Heuristics, ignorance media/ experience skills and including tech critical psycho- literacy physics Cognitive External capabilities context © Ipsos 2021
THE ROLE OF NUMERACY
Just 26% of Brits correctly know that
the probability of getting two heads if
Numerical
you spin a coin twice is 1 in 4
(especially
statistical)
skills neither Only 13% of Brits would be most
widespread nor proud of their children if they were
valued good at numbers – 55% would be more
proud of excellence in literacy
Base: c. 15,700 online interviews across 31 markets, 23 October – 6 November 2020
© Ipsos 2021
14But there is much more to our errors than numerical limitations – one of the key concepts: ‘Emotional Innumeracy’… 15 © Ipsos 2021
HUGE OVERESTIMATES OF TEENAGE BIRTHS…
What percentage of women and girls aged 15 to 19 in [Country] do you think
give birth each year?
% point difference too high Guess Actual
Total +21 23 2
Argentina +31 37 6
USA +22 24 2
Britain +18 19 1.4
Please see http://perils.ipsos.com/ for full details of all sources.
© Ipsos 2021
16Guarantee you will never see a headline like this … 17 © Ipsos 2021
EMOTIONAL INNUMERACY…
We overestimate what we Cause and effect run in
worry about as much as both directions
we worry about what we
overestimate
Makes misperceptions Vital implications:
useful indicators of what • can’t just use facts,
we’re really worried about misdiagnoses cause – partly
emotional
• ‘myth-busting’ seldom gives
the full answer…
18 © Ipsos 2021OUR BIASES HELP EXPLAIN FOCUS ON NEGATIVE
… including the way our brains have evolved to handle information
We are poor at spotting We tend to focus on ‘Rosy retrospection’ –
gradual, positive negative information due tendency to believe things
improvements (such as to evolutionary reasons, were better in the past/are
birth rates among but means our brains tend getting worse (we can edit
teenagers) to respond to negative out the bad bits from our
information differently memories)
19 ‒ © Ipsos 2021AND THE FOCUS ON NEGATIVE INFO HAS IMPORTANT
SIDE-EFFECTS…
56%
Imagine you have a Very likely
life-threatening illness and 39%
your doctor has told you that 33%
you need an operation to treat Quite likely
it. How likely, if at all, are you 38%
to have this operation if your 3%
doctor tells you that…. Not very likely
6%
90% of people who have the
operation are alive for at least 1%
Not at all likely
5 years following the 2%
operation
7%
10% of people who have the Don't know
operation die within 5 years of 16%
having the operation
Base: c500 online British adults aged 16-74, April 2013. Source: Ipsos MORI/RSS
20 ‒ © Ipsos 2021Take death as an example 21 ‒ © Ipsos 2021 © Ipsos 2021
GLOBALLY, WE UNDERESTIMATE CANCER AND HEART
DISEASE AS CAUSES OF DEATH, AND OVERESTIMATE MORE
VIOLENT CAUSES
Q. Out of every 100 deaths in [Country] – about how many are a result of the following…
32%
Average guess Average actual
24%
15%
11% 10%
9% 8% 8% 7%
5% 5%
1% 0.7% 2% 2%
0.1%
Cardio- Cancer Neurological Terrorism/ Interpersonal Substance Transport Suicide
vascular disorder conflict violence use injuries
diseases disorders
Base: 16,000 online interviews with adults aged 16-64 in 32 countries around the world, November- December 2019
Source for actual health data: IHME GBD (2017). Please see http://perils.ipsos.com/ for more information.
22 ‒ © Ipsos 2021THAT’S DESPITE PEOPLE KNOWING HEART DISEASE & CANCER
ARE MORE LIKELY TO HAPPEN TO THEM PERSONALLY
But other factors are seen as more unpleasant or more frequently in the news
Q. Which three, if any, of the following things do you think are most likely to happen to you?
Q. Which three, if any, of the following things would be the most unpleasant thing to die from?
Q. Which three, if any, of the following things do you see covered most frequently in the news
Three most likely to happen to you Three most unpleasant ways to die Three see most in the news
40% 38%
35% 37%
31% 29%
24% 26% 25% 23%
21%
14% 15%
12% 13% 11%
7% 8% 9%
4% 4%
Cardio- Cancer Neurological Terrorism/ Interpersonal Substance Transport
vascular disorder conflict violence use injuries
diseases disorders
Base: 16,000 online interviews with adults aged 16-64 in 32 countries around the world, November- December 2019
Source for actual health data: IHME GBD (2017). Please see http://perils.ipsos.com/ for more information.
23 ‒ © Ipsos 2021Which brings us
to ‘Fake News’
© Ipsos |2021
Doc Name
© Ipsos 2021People think it’s
widespread
60%
Say they very or fairly often see news
stories that are deliberately untrue
48%
Say they’ve falsely believed a story that
they found out was fake
Base: 19,243 online adults under 65 in 27 countries, June-July 2018
Source: Ipsos Global Advisor
© Ipsos 2021
25
© Ipsos 2021But there is You Other people
complacency
34%
Agree “I live in a bubble on the
65%
Agree “The average person in my
internet, mostly connecting with country lives in their own bubble on
people like myself and looking for the internet, mostly connecting with
opinions I already agree with” people like themselves and looking
for opinions they already agree
with”
People think
it’s a problem 63%
Agree “I am confident that I can
41%
Agree “I am confident that the
for other tell real news from fake news
(entirely made-up stories or
average person in my country
can tell real news from fake
people, not facts)” news”
themselves
© Ipsos 2021
26
© Ipsos 2021MOTIVATED REASONING IS AN ISSUE IN
POLARISED TIMES
% correctly saying firearms
In the USA, do 83% Strong Democrat
you think more 80% Moderate Democrat
people are killed
66% Lean Democrat
by guns, knives
or other 55% Lean Republican
violence? 45% Moderate Republican
27% Strong Republican
Perils of Perception 2018
© Ipsos 2021
27And many of these
issues are vital for
understanding public
opinion on COVID-19
© Ipsos |2021
Doc Name
© Ipsos 2021Misperceptions too low % point diff. between avg. guess & actual too high
Avg. guess
(73)
Actual
(94)
already exist on South Africa
Chile -13%
-9% 57
80
66
93
Netherlands -13% 81 94
vaccines – e.g. Montenegro
Sweden
-14%
-15%
73
82
87
97
Hong Kong, SAR China -15% 84 99
underestimating the Belgium
Canada
-15%
-16%
83
75
98
91
Hungary -16%
coverage of South Korea
Denmark
-17%
83
81
99
98
-18% 80 98
vaccinations of France
Australia
-18%
-19%
78
76
96
95
Singapore -19% 77 96
infants in their Great Britain
Spain
-20%
-20%
74
78
94
98
Italy -21% 73 94
market Malaysia -21% 78 99
Argentina -21% 65 86
Romania -22% 60 82
United States -22% 73 95
Peru -22% 61 83
Serbia -22% 73 95
Poland -22% 76 98
Q. Out of every 100 infants aged under New Zealand -22% 72 94
Russia
12 months in [MARKET], about how -22% 75 97
Brazil -23% 66 89
many do you think have had all the Colombia -23% 69 92
Germany -23% 72 95
World Health Organisation Switzerland -24% 73 97
recommended vaccinations for Thailand -25% 74 99
Turkey -26% 70 96
Diphtheria, Tetanus, Whooping Cough, Saudi Arabia -27% 71 98
Polio and Measles? Japan -27% 72 99
China -29% 70 99
Mexico -29% 68 97
India -30% 58 88
© Ipsos 2021
Source: Ipsos Perils of Perception 2018 (28,115 online interviews Sept –Oct 2018 in 37 countries)
© Ipsos 2021 Please see http://perils.ipsos.com/ for full details of all sources.% saying true % saying don’t know % saying false
Meanwhile, the claim (average = 20) (average = 38) (average = 42)
Montenegro 44% 30% 26%
there is a link India
Turkey 31%
44%
47%
36% 20%
22%
between vaccines South Africa
Malaysia
30%
30%
35%
35%
34%
34%
Israel 29% 35% 36%
and autism in Philippines
Serbia
28%
27%
33%
40%
39%
34%
healthy children Sweden
Saudi Arabia
25%
24%
24%
51%
52%
25%
Indonesia 23% 32% 45%
persists – or at least Hong Kong
Denmark
22%
22% 36%
50%
42%
28%
is subject to Singapore
Great Britain
20%
20% 35%
48%
45%
32%
USA 19% 29% 52%
uncertainty China
South Korea
19%
19%
50%
52%
31%
30%
Norway 18% 23% 59%
Poland 17% 38% 45%
France 17% 48% 35%
Peru 17% 39% 45%
Canada 16% 32% 52%
Chile 16% 31% 53%
New Zealand 16% 31% 53%
Colombia 14% 44% 42%
Italy 14% 38% 48%
Mexico 14% 28% 58%
Russia 14% 47% 39%
Australia 14% 27% 59%
Japan 12% 63% 25%
Do you think the following Germany
Netherlands
12%
11%
36%
40%
52%
49%
statement is true or false? Brazil
Argentina
10%
10% 28%
35%
62%
54%
Hungary 10% 42% 48%
Belgium 9% 51% 40%
Some vaccines cause autism Spain 8% 39% 53%
in healthy
© Ipsos 2021
children Source: Ipsos Perils of Perception 2017 (29,113 online interviews Sept –Oct 2017 in 38 countries)
Please see http://perils.ipsos.com/ for full details of all sources.THERE’S COVID-19 CONFUSION – THREE IN TEN IN THE UK
THINK IT WAS CREATED IN A LAB
Are the following statements true or false? True False
Coronavirus was probably created in a laboratory 30% 41%
The number of people reported as dying from coronavirus is
30% 44%
being deliberately reduced or hidden by the authorities
Most people in the UK have already had coronavirus without
28% 38%
realising it
The number of people reported as dying from coronavirus is
14% 69%
being deliberately exaggerated by the authorities
The current pandemic is part of a global effort to force everyone 13% 70%
to be vaccinated whether they want to or not
The symptoms that most people blame on coronavirus appear 8% 79%
to be linked to 5G network radiation
There is no hard evidence that coronavirus really exists 7% 82%
Base: 2,254 UK residents aged 16-75, interviewed 20-22 May 2020
Source: King’s College London/Ipsos MORI
© Ipsos 2021AND THESE BELIEFS ARE LINKED TO BEHAVIOURS
Staying 2 metres
away from other 95%
people when outside
% engaging in your home 72%
behaviours among
those who do/don’t
believe there is no Had friends or 12%
hard evidence that family visit you at
coronavirus really home 38%
exists
Gone to work or outside
despite having 4%
symptoms that could be
coronavirus 35% True False
Base: 2,254 UK residents aged 16-75, interviewed 20-22 May 2020
Source: King’s College London/Ipsos MORI
32 ‒ © Ipsos 2021True Don’t know False
BELIEF IN Vaccines work by training your natural immune system
VACCINE to fight against viruses 75% 18% 7%
CONSPIRACY The UK Government will make sure the coronavirus
vaccine is safe before it is released 67% 21% 13%
THEORIES IS The only reason a coronavirus vaccine is being
ONLY AMONG A developed is to make money for pharmaceutical
companies
15% 16% 69%
MINORITY IN THE The real purpose of a mass vaccination programme
UK – BUT 17% 68%
against coronavirus is simply to track and control the 14%
population
CONFUSION A coronavirus vaccine may alter people’s DNA 9% 30% 61%
REMAINS Bill Gates wants a mass vaccination programme
against coronavirus so that he can implant microchips 9% 21% 70%
into people
Are the following A coronavirus vaccine may cause infertility 7% 48% 44%
statements true or false?
A coronavirus vaccine may cause autism in children 5% 42% 53%
Base: 1,122 UK residents aged 16-75, interviewed 20-24 November 2020
33 ©© Ipsos
Ipsos 2021
2021BUT LINKS WITH SOCIAL MEDIA USE
More likely to be a source of anti-vax messages, and belief in them is higher among those who get
their information from social media
Where 34% of Britons say they have seen or heard Are the following statements true or false? Are the following statements true or false?
messages encouraging the public not to get a Bill Gates wants a mass vaccination programme The only reason a coronavirus vaccine is being
coronavirus vaccine against coronavirus so that he can implant developed is to make money for pharmaceutical
microchips into people companies
Facebook 58%
WhatsApp 35% WhatsApp 39%
A friend or family member 20%
Twitter 19% Get a great
Instagram 17% deal or fair YouTube 30% YouTube 37%
amount of
YouTube 16% information
Television 15% on
coronavirus Twitter 21% Twitter 28%
Another online source 14% from:
WhatsApp 13%
Magazine or newspaper 9% Facebook 21% Facebook 26%
Radio 6%
Other 5% All UK 9% % true All UK 15%
Don’t know 1%
Base: 1,122 UK residents aged 16-75, interviewed 20-24 November 2020
34 © Ipsos 2021THERE IS To what extent, if at all, do you support or oppose each of
the following?
SUPPORT,
Support Oppose
THOUGH, FOR
Social media platforms making it
SOCIAL MEDIA easier to find and read scientific
67% 8%
PLATFORMS TO evidence on vaccines, such as
articles by experts and scientists
ACT AGAINST
Financial penalties for social
MISINFORMATION media companies who fail to
67% 11%
remove false information about
vaccines
Social media platforms removing
posts on vaccines that contradict 55% 17%
scientific evidence
Social media platforms adding
warnings to posts that contradict 54% 20%
scientific evidence
Base: 2,244 UK residents aged 16-75, interviewed 20-24 November 2020
35 ‒ © Ipsos 2021
© Ipsos 2021Because there hasn’t been enough time to see what the
Though worth side-effects of the vaccine might be 61% 31%
Because there hasn’t been enough time
remembering that to test whether the vaccine really works 58% 34%
vaccine hesitancy Because doses of the vaccine will be limited
and other people will need it more than me 51% 38%
likely to be a Because I don’t trust the government
if it is telling me I should take it 41% 49%
bigger issue than Because I don’t trust the people
who have developed the vaccine 29% 58%
conspiracy Because the impact of the coronavirus
26% 65%
theories…
is being greatly exaggerated
Because it doesn’t matter if most get coronavirus as
they're unlikely to be seriously unwell 25% 66%
How convincing, or otherwise, do
Because the chances of me
you find each of the following catching the coronavirus are low 25% 64%
reasons why you should take a Because the effectiveness of vaccines against
vaccine against coronavirus other diseases in the past has been exaggerated 24% 63%
(when one becomes available)? Because it is likely to be too
expensive to get a vaccine 23% 61%
Because I’ve had flu vaccines in
Convincing the past and they haven’t worked 22% 63%
Not convincing Because so long as most other people get
the vaccine then it doesn’t matter if I don’t 20% 71%
Because vaccines cause autism 15% 68%
Base: 1,049 Online British adults 18-75, 13-16 November 2020
36 © Ipsos 2021ARE THERE ANY SOLUTIONS? 37 ‒ © Ipsos 2021
IT WON’T BE EASY…
I’ve been studying Some individual-level approaches:
this stuff for about • start with assumption things are getting
45 years and I better
really haven’t • avoid assuming you’re utterly normal…
• … or focusing on the extreme
improved one bit
• actively unfilter your world
…
Daniel Kahneman
© Ipsos 2021WE CAN SUPPORT A REALITY-BASED VIEW OF THE
WORLD…
Critical, statistical and Support fact-checking, Facts and stories not
news literacy from schools systemically, pre-emptively opposites: use both to
onwards explain
Great untapped potential in People are NOT
more meaningful automatons, entirely driven
deliberation, using by biases and tribal
technology and traditional identities, and unwilling to
approaches change…
39 ‒ © Ipsos 2021FOR MORE INFORMATION:
perils.ipsos.com
40 ‒ © Ipsos 2021ABOUT IPSOS
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