Pakistan-India Relations - DR. RUKHSANA QAMBER PRESIDENT IRS Institute of Regional Studies, Islamabad

Pakistan-India
Relations

DR. RUKHSANA QAMBER
PRESIDENT
IRS

             Institute of Regional Studies, Islamabad

Summary

   Recent developments in Indian foreign relations
   India Occupied Kashmir (IOK)
   Developments in Pak-India relations
   Chances of resuming the peace process
   What do 2019 Indian Elections have in store for
    us?

                  Institute of Regional Studies, Islamabad

Recent Developments in
Indian Foreign Relations
    Modi held meetings with President Xi Jinping of
     China and President Vladimir Putin of Russia.

    In both, he sought to give India’s foreign policy a
     modicum of neutrality vis-à-vis big Asian powers
     and the U.S.

    New Delhi has simultaneously focused on building
     its strategic relationship with the U.S.

                   Institute of Regional Studies, Islamabad

India and the U.S.
   Trump calls developing a strategic partnership
    with India a "critical part" of its South Asia policy.
   India and the U.S. are aiming to further deepen
    operational cooperation in the resource-rich Indo-
    Pacific region where China has been trying to
    spread its influence.
        The issue was discussed extensively during the third
         round of the India-US Maritime Security Dialogue
         which took place in Goa from April 30 to May 1.
   India has refused to stop trade cooperation with
    Iran despite U.S. sanctions with Indian; MEA saying
    that India is bound by UN sanctions not U.S.

                     Institute of Regional Studies, Islamabad

India Occupied Kashmir (IOK)
IOK is more violent are politically divided than ever.

                 Institute of Regional Studies, Islamabad

Political Polarization and
Indigenous Uprising
   The last State Assembly election results indicate greater political
    polarization in IOK. All BJP seats were won from the Jammu region
    while all PDP seats were won from the Valley.
   Indian security forces have killed more than 100 people in IOK so
    far in 2018.
   The murder of 8 ears old Asifa in IOK gives momentum to the
    protests.
   The protests and violence in IOK refuse to die down, especially
    since the killing of young Kashmiri leader Burhan Wani in July 2016.
   Indian media now recognizes that the home-grown indigenous
    uprising is a new phenomenon in Kashmir’s long struggle against
    Indian occupation.
   Protests persist despite large-scale development activity by the BJP
    in IOK on the one hand and the use of excessive force—like use of
    pellet guns and shooting at faces on the other.
   Ten Kashmiris, among them a university professor, were shot dead
    by Indian forces during a clash and protests on May 6.

                     Institute of Regional Studies, Islamabad

Ceasefire Violations across LoC
    Ceasefire violations continue across the LoC
     that was largely holding in place for about 10
     years, 2003 to 2013.
    Violations intensified in October 2016 after
     India claimed to have carried out surgical
     strikes on the alleged "terror launch pads along
     the LoC" in AJK.
    Pakistan raised this issue several times with
     India and at the UN but to no avail.
    Last evening’s DGMOs hotline agreement on
     ceasefire is a positive development.

                 Institute of Regional Studies, Islamabad

Positive Pak-India relations

    India has recently shown willingness to normalize
     relations with Pakistan. At the official level, Indian
     government has uttered nothing; however, quiet
     meetings between the NSAs of the two countries
     have taken place.
    This is in the context of Chief of Pakistan Army
     Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa having gone on record
     to suggest that a peace move with India was
     necessary.
    India’s willingness should also be seen in the
     context of India’s desire to join the OIC as an
     observer through a reform proposal initiated by
     Bangladesh at the OIC.
                    Institute of Regional Studies, Islamabad

“Jab seema par janaze
uth rahe hon, to
baatcheet ki awaaz
acchi nahi lagti” – Indian
MEA Sushma Swaraj
(May 28)
Although there have been some positive
signs lately, signs for resumption of dialogue
appear weak with Kashmir burning,
continuing cross-LoC ceasefire violations,
attention India is receiving at the world
stage, Indian insistence on prioritizing the
issue of terrorism in the dialogue, and
upcoming general elections in both
Pakistan and India. The recent inauguration
of controversial Kishnganga Hydropower
project is one example of Indian Water
Aggression.
                        Institute of Regional Studies, Islamabad

Overall, the Pakistan-India peace process
being on hold until the upcoming national
elections in the two countries, we must
understand what could be the likely political
dispensation in India post-2019 elections.
               Institute of Regional Studies, Islamabad

Two Questions on Indian General
Elections 2019

    What do political signs indicate about the
     prospects of NDA (the BJP-led coalition)
     in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections?

    What do political signs suggest about the
     prospects of UPA (the Congress-led
     coalition) presenting a challenge to BJP
     in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections?

                Institute of Regional Studies, Islamabad

Signs of BJP’s Health

   The BJP has won State Assembly elections in the important
    states of UP, Assam, and Gujarat, and has performed
    satisfactorily in some other states.
   The BJP has even won State Assembly elections in the north-
    eastern state of Tripura where Hindutva politics do not
    resonate with the local population.
       The BJP has targeted this region carefully. While downplaying its
        Hindutva card, it has stressed job creation, as unemployment
        ratio in Tripura has touched 22 percent.
       Narendra Modi successfully projects himself as a commoner.
   BJP is also benefitting from the weak and fragmented
    opposition.

                        Institute of Regional Studies, Islamabad

Are there any personalities at the
national scene in India who could
challenge Modi?

            Institute of Regional Studies, Islamabad

Rahul Gandhi
(Indian
National
Congress) at
the national
level
Gandhi has proved to be a weak political
leader. He is also stigmatized by the label
of dynastic politics.

            Institute of Regional Studies, Islamabad

Nitish
 Kumar
 (Janata Dal
 United) in
 Bihar
Kumar threatened BJP by forging a Grand Alliance
of all opposition parties against it in Bihar and
winning the State Assembly election but later he
tried to gather BJP support against Lalu Prasad
Yadav of RJD, his main contender in the State.

              Institute of Regional Studies, Islamabad

Mamata
 Banerjee (All
 India
 Trinamool
 Congress) in
 West Bengal
Banerjee has won the State Assembly elections in
West Bengal twice and could be a national level
aspirant with the support of Nitish Kumar. Such
jockeying for national level role could go in favor of
Modi and possibly get him re-elected.

               Institute of Regional Studies, Islamabad

Recent comeback by
Congress?
    In the state of Karnataka, the BJP could
     neither win simple majority nor form a
     coalition government after the recently
     held State Assembly elections.
    Congress, with the support of Janata Dal-
     Seclar (JD-S), formed a coalition
     government in the state, even though
     BJP was still the largest party in the
     elections.
    This may be seen as the dissipation of the
     “Modi Wave,” however:
                 Institute of Regional Studies, Islamabad

There are challenges…
    In the numbers game, BJP is still far ahead of INC.
     While INC has bagged 78 seats, BJP has won 104.
    INC’s show is much worse than its 2013
     performance, wherein it had won 121 seats and
     had simple majority in the 224-member assembly
     against only 39 by BJP.
    In comparative terms, BJP has performed much
     better than 2013.
    INC is having problems in adjustment of portfolios
     with its ally JD-S.

                   Institute of Regional Studies, Islamabad

The BJP could face a challenge from regional
political parties in the following 11 states/territories

     By the National Conference in IOK
     By the Left in Kerala
     By the Samajdwadi Party and the BSP in UP
     By the BJD in Odisha
     By the AITC in West Bengal
     By the JDU and RJD in Bihar
     By the AAP in Punjab and Delhi
     By the DMK in Tamil Nadu
     By the TRS in Telangana
     By the YSR Congress in Andhra Pradesh

                     Institute of Regional Studies, Islamabad

The Numbers Game
    The states mentioned in the previous slide
     account for 285 Lok Sabha seats, three more than
     what the BJP won in 2014.
    Of these seats, non-BJP and non-Congress parties
     have only won 98 seats in the current Lok Sabha
    Together, these parties had 26 percent of the
     votes in 2014—five points less than the BJP.
    If these parties put up a united fight with support
     from the Congress, they may be able to increase
     both their vote shares and their seats won.
    Having said all this, however, there is still a big gap
     between theory and implementation.

                    Institute of Regional Studies, Islamabad

Dynamics of Regional Politics: UP

    The Samajwadi Party (SP) of Akilesh Yadhav, the son of
     Mulayem Singh Yadhav, draws support mainly from the
     Yadhavs.

    The BSP draws its support from its Bahujan/Dalit support
     base. It has ruled the state for two terms in the past, but
     did not return a single candidate to the Lok Sabha in
     2014 General Election. It still remains the third largest
     political party by voter support.

    UP has a large Muslim population but it is geographically
     dispersed and do not form majority in any district of UP.

                    Institute of Regional Studies, Islamabad

Further Research – 1
   If Indians are calling this phase of uprising in IOK
    different from anything they’ve seen in the past,
    how should Pakistan be looking at it?

   How would different Indian approaches to
    handling the problem in IOK shape it?

   Is India getting stronger or weaker at the
    international level?

   How long is Indo-U.S. bonhomie likely to last?

                   Institute of Regional Studies, Islamabad

Further Research – 2
    Is Modi coming to power again?
        If yes, how strong would he be at the Center and what
         would his regional policy look like in the second term?
        What are the voting patterns in different parts and
         among different ethnic, linguistic, caste, and religious
         communities in India and how are they determined?
    In what ways does regional politics shape national
     politics in India?
        Would India be better off with powerful regional
         political parties or otherwise?
        Has Hindutva nationalism trumped regionalism in
         Indian politics?
        How do personalities shape the Indian political scene?
        How do regional political parties shape Indian foreign
         policy?

                      Institute of Regional Studies, Islamabad

Thank you!
Institute of Regional Studies (IRS), Islamabad

                 Institute of Regional Studies, Islamabad