Point of View The future of European football - September 2021 - Deloitte
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Point of View The future of European football September 2021
The future of European football
Abstract
The world’s most popular sport, born in Europe US and China has made the national leagues in those
countries realize that they want to have a piece of that
European football has come a long way since it started
domestic pie. Another recent challenge, which can also
as a local school sport in the UK throughout the 19th
be a catalyst for change, is the arrival of COVID-19 and
century. A few milestones clearly stand out in this
the pressure it has put on the sector. All of the above has
incredible journey, with the two most prominent being
led to 12 clubs breakaway, attempting to form their own
the introduction of the European Champion Clubs’ Cup
Super League. They believed this to be the way forward
in 1955 - subsequently rebranded into the Champions
for continued sportive and commercial development of
League - and the launch of the Premier league in 1992.
the European football product.
Even though the motivation behind these milestones was
totally different, they both clearly marked a disruptive This reform is not limited to impact the structure of
change in the model of European football and defined the current European leagues, but could also be expanded
road to where we are today. to the domestic leagues. Clubs of all levels in Europe
are looking for ways to become more competitive and
A local product consumed by a global market
expand their revenue. In order to achieve continued
Over the last 30 years, the business model of football has growth, clubs are willing to question the most
evolved from a model that mostly relied on matchday fundamental principles that has marked European
revenue as its main source of income to a broadcast football: the structure of the domestic leagues. Talks of
revenue-driven model. A clear consequence of this shift a Transatlantic League or “BeNeLiga” are clear signs that
is that European football became an incredibly scalable the momentum is there, and clubs are willing to go far
product. Overnight, potential target markets shifted from in their ambition to compete with the strongest clubs
community driven towns and cities to entire countries. around to ensure their position in the football landscape.
The strong economic development of regions like Asia
One important consideration that arose when analysing
also fueled the overseas interest in European football.
the reactions up when hearing the reactions to the
Nowadays, European football is still a product with a
Super League idea is that the local heritage and the
strong local heritage but consumed by a global market in
importance of the European domestic market should not
various ways. European football’s ability to grow and scale
be underestimated. There was a clear signal from many
globally has brought nothing but prosperity and near
stakeholders that it would not be acceptable to wipe out
double-digit growth, although some clubs have benefited
the very foundations on which European football has
more than others.
been built: an open football pyramid and sportive merit
Despite all the positive developments, in its ambition as the basis to decide which clubs compete in which
for continued Ambition for continued growth, European division.
football is facing challenges of its own. Consumers
Although the majority of the 12 clubs may have taken
nowadays are more likely to consume short-form
the Super League off their agenda, the challenges facing
entertainment, which is hard to rhyme with the traditional
European football as a whole remain. Adding to this,
format of a 90-minute football game. With 50-inch TV’s,
within certain domestic leagues, there are also clubs that
numerous channels and secondary screens, watching a
have seen disproportional financial growth compared
game at home is a different experience compared to 20
to others. This equally contributes to the financial and
years ago. Additionally, scaling to other markets like the
sportive imbalance within a league.
2
The future of European football
These challenges affect, in the long term, the tendering of media rights (a common feature across
attractiveness of the sport and they potentially wipe the continent), clubs take a “personalized” approach
out the importance of sportive merit. Some clubs are to the majority of the other commercial rights. This
torn between guarding the legacy and foundation of club-driven approach generally leads to the strongest
the domestic leagues which made them the clubs they teams in the different leagues getting the most money
are today, and continuously looking for opportunities from the market. Which brings us to where we started:
for individual growth. For example, with technological a growing financial imbalance. One option to cope with
developments like streaming, clubs individually tendering these trends is to take a league-driven approach to the
their media rights (again) is no longer science fiction. commercialization of the league as a whole and the clubs
it contains, in line with the US model for competitions like
This point of view highlights four scenarios where
the MLS.
football leagues in Europe could evolve towards. They
hinge on two axes: national leagues vs. cross-border This model could favor a more equal distribution of
leagues, and clubs taking a personalized approach to the revenues, but could create a disadvantage the leagues’
commercialization of their brand (club-driven) or consider top teams in their competitiveness on the European
the league as the core product to be commercialized football scene, given that they will have to show more
(league-driven). solidarity to other clubs within that domestic league.
Every league will have to carefully assess whether
The first axis considers whether clubs remain mostly
this league-driven approach can provide value for the
active in their national leagues, as is the case nowadays,
league as a whole, without hurting the competitiveness
or whether the balance will shift to the majority of
of its biggest clubs and still keeping open the gates to
the matches being played in a cross-border league,
European football.
where clubs will be able to meet stronger cross-border
opponents? Point of view
In both models, it will be important to respect the This point of view is meant as a reflection document and
foundations of European football, being sportive merit captures the abovementioned evolutions and how these
between clubs and the ability for any club to either trends might influence what European football will look
promote to or relegate from the highest division. Cross- like in the future, depending on which of these trends will
border leagues can provide a solution to cope with the materialize. The impact of each scenario will be different
growing imbalance within several domestic leagues, and for each (football-minded) stakeholder and therefore this
can help smaller leagues and countries to take a step point of view aims to help shape a conceptual idea about
forward on the European football scene. In all of this, fair the long term future of European football.
financial distribution will be key for the success of the
format.
Another point begging for attention, is the growing
financial imbalance and its long-term effect on
the competitive balance within a league. This is
a direct consequence of the European model of
commercialization, where apart from a centralized
3
The future of European football 4
The future of European football
1. The evolution of the European football landscape 06
2. Where are we now? 09
3. Where is it going? 12
• Scenario 1: Power to the Roots.
14
Club-driven national competitions
• Scenario 2: All for one, one for All.
18
League-driven national competitions
• Scenario 3: Borderless dreams.
22
Club-driven cross-border competitions
• Scenario 4: Pan-European Orchestra.
26
League-driven cross-border competitions
4. Disclaimer 30
5. Contacts 31
5
The future of European football
1. The evolution of the
European football landscape
The world’s most popular sport, born in Europe
Football as we know it today has evolved from a local the trophy twice, recently defeating Manchester City 9
school sport in the UK in the 19th century to a globally years after their first victory.
watched, multi-billion Euro industry. Europe being the
The evolution of the European Cup is an interesting
centerstage where it saw its biggest expansion in the
example of how European football has developed
previous century. After the Second World War, as the
over time, initially starting with very straightforward
continent was being rebuilt, clubs started to thrive in
qualification rules and a simple competition format.
their domestic leagues. Inspired by what they had seen in
Essentially a home and away knock-out round as of round
South America with the South American Championship
1, where David could beat Goliath at any given time. The
of Champions, L’Équipe editor Gabriel Hanot and his
reigning champions of every European nation competed,
team decided it was time for a European version. In 1954,
a principle only abandoned 42 years later, in 1997, just
the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) was
after the rebranding into the Champions League. The 8
founded in Basel, Switzerland. Nearly ten years after the
biggest leagues were allowed to send their runner up and
end of the Second World War, UEFA’s founders wanted
the UEFA introduced a group stage, round-robin format.
Europe to have an independent body in international
The arrival of domestic TV triggered some of the biggest
football, while also laying the foundations for fruitful
clubs to rethink this model, both increasing the number
cooperation among the members. This is where cross-
of matches between the top flight teams in the continent,
border football originated. September 4th, 1955: The
while reducing the risk of early relegation in European
European Champion Club’s Cup was born.
leagues at the same time. Little did they know this was
Since that first edition, European football has come a long the start of a revolution in football which would define the
way to where it is now. Perhaps the most striking example next 30 years and lay the foundations for the fast paced
was the absence of English reigning champion at that development football has been through. Where European
time, Chelsea FC. They had been blocked from accepting club football started as a reaction to the dominant
UEFA’s invitation by British Football League secretary position of South-American football, we can now say that
Alan Hardaker, who thought European football was a European football dominates the globe (Brazil, the last
“distraction,” prioritizing domestic football over European non-European winner of the World Cup, won the trophy
success. Nowadays, most European clubs can only dream back in 2002).
of European success.Chelsea, in the meantime, has won
Modern day transitioning; from a matchday to broadcast driven business model
Over the past decades, the football clubs’ business For example, the EPL has negotiated its broadcasting
model has significantly changed. In the early days of rights successfully in 3-year cycles. In the 2007-2010
football, the main revenue sources were gate receipts and cycle, the total amounted to €1.9b. The 2016-2019 cycle
sponsorships (limited). One of the earliest examples of accumulated €5.9b2. By now, broadcast revenue is the
live broadcasting of football league matches was in 1960- main revenue source of the big 5 leagues as shown in
1961, when ITV paid £150k (€175k) for 26 matches1. In figure 1 below3.
the last few years, this transition has accelerated greatly.
6
The future of European football
This shift to a more broadcast revenue-driven model one of the main drivers to reconsider the structure and
originates from the early ‘90s, with the advent of format of the Champions League, while triggering a
commercial TV strongly reshaping the entertainment revolution for football clubs in domestic leagues too.
sector. It was, as mentioned in the previous section,
Figure 1: Revenue split for professional football, BE vs. Big-5 average
Belgium 29% 21% 25% 25%
Big-5 average 14% 27% 8% 51%
Matchday Sponsorship/Commercial Other Commercial Broadcasting
This trend is highlighted if one looks at the growth of a revenue) and broadcasts (114%) are the three sources
club’s revenue sources in the past years4 (figure 2). From that have seen the largest growth in revenue across all 55
2009-2018, UEFA prize money (245%, driven by broadcast countries in Europe. Gate receipts revenue grew by only
revenue), transfers (138%, partly driven by broadcast 26% across these 55 countries in the same period.
Figure 2: EU football club revenue source growth from 2009-2018 (all 55 countries)
245%
138%
114%
73%
26% 21%
UEFA prize money Transfers Broadcast Sponsorship Gate receipts Other
7
The future of European football
The move from a matchday-driven business model to a Sportive achievements quickly followed. Since 1994,
broadcast-driven business model has allowed European Asian nations were present at every World Cup to date,
football to generate revenue way beyond the gates of averaging 0.78 points per game and even coming very
its home ground. Indeed, global demand for European close to silverware, through South Korea’s 4th place on
football has increased exponentially, mainly driven by own soil in 2002 - the only Asian World Cup to date.
increased economic prosperity in emerging markets,
Over the last 30 years, European football has tried to
as they were once called. A good illustration is the
seize the enormous opportunity that overseas interest
Asian continent, which historically lacked a rich football
represents. As a result, growth in media revenue
tradition. In the 15 World Cups that were played up until
development has been mainly driven by international
1990, Asian teams only participated in 9, averaging only
growth and for some leagues it contributes as much
0.27 points per game. However, in the past 30 years
yearly media revenue as the domestic market does (see
many Asian nations have experienced strong economic
figure 3).7 .
growth, illustrated by a gross domestic product that has
sextupled since 19906 .
1
Imlach, Gary. My Father and Other Working-Class Football Heroes. pp. 152–153
2
https://www.sbibarcelona.com/newsdetails/index/403
3
Deloitte Football Money League Report, Socio-economic impact report (season 17/18)
4
UEFA’s Club Licensing Benchmarking Report Financial Year 2018
5
Excluding Israel, who were part of AFA but later on joined UEFA
6
World Bank
7
UEFA’s Club Licensing Benchmarking Report Financial Year 2018
8
The future of European football
2. Where are we now?
A local product consumed by a rapidly evolving global market
Asia is not the only continent that has experienced to the previous season. Its post-lockdown reprise fared
an increased interest in football. As shown in figure 4 particularly well, with international viewership during the
North-America and West-Africa, too, count an increasing first post-lockdown matchday being 48% higher than the
number of football fans – an opportunity which is being average of all previous matchdays combined. In addition,
effectively monetized by European leagues, clubs and the league is now making more than €100 million from
players, who have been launching and exploiting a slew of sponsorships, supported by international brands like
commercial initiatives. Puma, EA Sports and Budweiser with whom it has long-
term partnerships that it can leverage across the globe.
For leagues, one of the initiatives that has been
instrumental in foreign growth is the setup of overseas Next to leagues, clubs have also been widely successful
entities to remain in the proximity of their foreign football in tapping into international interest for their football
fans and engage in business development efforts that abilities. It has become common for both small and
underpin their international broadcast revenue. Spanish large clubs in leagues across Europe to develop club TV
La Liga’s business is exemplary: on top of having 43 channels with international outreach, acquire foreign
delegates around the world, it has 11 international players to spark interest from their homeland’s fan base,
offices, of which two constitute strategic joint ventures play (friendly) games on foreign soil, etc. For some, this has
that go beyond content and sponsorship efforts8. For led to a global fan base that far transcends the traditional,
the American and Chinese growth markets, it partners local fan base, while for others the international income is
up with regional and other media enterprises to further a welcome addition to the yearly budget.
strengthen its presence. It does so with, among other
Many players nowadays have become international media
initiatives, the development of youth academies and
brands who reach an audience that far exceeds that of
programs that facilitate players to move from their
the club they play for – or even the combined audience
domestic league to an overseas destination at the end
of all the clubs they would play against. By and large that
of their career to move from their domestic league to an
reach is still monetized by lucrative sponsorship deals
overseas destination. All those international endeavors
with the world’s biggest brands but, often supported by
seem to be paying off for La Liga. In the past 2019-2020
their agents’ commercial manpower, players have become
season, the Spanish top flight reached close to 2.8 billion
media ventures of their own, effectively using social media
viewers, which represents an 11.5% increase compared
to inform and entertain their fans on a regular basis.
Figure 4: Number of football fans
(M, 2018)
3 4 70
10
35 50 24
40 35
90 35 60 50
400
70 6
90 25
8
400 50
175 20
200
140
10 10
40
30
Growth in football interest ’14 - ’17 (%) 5
>10% 10 - 0%
The future of European football Changing consumption behaviors pose a challenge Despite this very promising trend and development, in major economies9, however, younger audiences, in clubs are also increasingly challenged as they are particular are increasingly looking away. As such, only now essentially investing in the game of the global 24% of Belgians aged between 16 and 24 still watch linear entertainment sector, battling other sports, streaming TV daily10 , Brits of the same age watch roughly half as platforms, gaming, and so on for the global customers’ much daily television as those aged between 45 and 5411, attention. Is the ball game itself ready to compete? The and in the Netherlands the same comparison applies real football romantic will argue that football content is between those under 20 and those between 35 and 49. best consumed in its original live broadcast form. Still, a So, while the traditional format of a 90-minute game may rapidly changing trend shows customers, especially those still work well for the traditional football fan, the younger looking for short-form entertainment, to expect to be viewing audience has a tendency to divide their attention able to consume any kind of content anytime, anywhere over a large number of bite-sized content items, rather and on any device. This includes football content. Linear than investing its time in one item in particular . television may still hold the top spot for tv viewership A sport that revolves around a series of “plays” might However, the rise of short form content, as seen on social be more adapted to the new media behavior, as it can media platforms, could be a challenge for broadcast more easily be cut into interesting pieces that attract the revenue. The number and type of broadcasters is interest of the modern media user. In the coming years, increasing, as indicated by figure 5 below, which drives the shift towards broadcast-focused business models for broadcast value and enables different consumption football clubs could evolve into a more broadly media- behavior. Thanks to both the strong development focused business model. Innovative ways of football of all domestic leagues as well as the European club consumption could impact broadcast revenue. On the one competitions, the last 30 years has seen nothing but near hand this provides an opportunity, as OTT (Over-The-Top) double-digit growth for most leagues and clubs operating offerings could complement live match broadcasts and on the European continent. add revenue sources to the more traditional club revenue sources of matchday, sponsorship and broadcast. 9 Omdia, “Cross-Platform Television Viewing Time Report – 2020”, Australia, the Netherlands, Spain, Italy, Germany, France and the U.K 10 imec Digimeter, 2020 11 BARB, 2021 12 Business Wire, ‘New Research Reveals Millennial and GenZ Sports Fans Changing the Game for Leagues, Teams and Players’ (2019) 10
The future of European football
European dominance overseas has sparked attention
European-led globalization, which was initially intended English Premier League remains the most lucrative football
to spark foreigners’ interest in European clubs, has league in the US, as NBC’s $166m-a-year deal still trumps
had spillover effects on clubs and leagues from other the combined yearly MLS rights, now estimated at $90m13.
continents. The Major League Soccer (MLS), for example,
Another good example of the fact that European football
has increasingly been benefitting from Americans’
is not only competing with other global entertainment
increased interest in football, e.g., showcased by adding
giants, but also with other football leagues globally, is the
new teams to the MLS. Logically, their increased domestic
evolution and development of the Chinese Super League.
success has motivated non-European leagues and clubs
Its fans are spending increasingly more time watching
to engage in a battle for US soccer fans’ attention with
games and the CSL is now the 5th most-watched league
the incumbent European powerhouses. The broadcast
(by average number of stadium attendees).14
success of the MLS is still rather limited, however: the
COVID-19 as a potential catalyst for change
On top of the struggle to entertain younger viewers and commercial potential is just too small to cushion a drop in
cope with overseas competition, the COVID 19 pandemic matchday revenue – revenue that in itself often depends
has created an even tougher environment for clubs and on a few games against top teams each season.
leagues to compete in. Even for the most prize-winning
The challenges described above have created a base for
and financially profitable clubs, 2020 was a year full of
both larger and smaller European clubs alike to drastically
struggles that stress tested business models and, for
rethink how they can achieve financial stability that
some, prompted an effort to reconsider current business
supports their sporting ambitions. Clubs who already
models. Those who had not already adopted a model that
largely depend on broadcast income and clubs who still
depends less on matchday revenue but more on other
depend on matchday revenue have one goal in common
sources of income (as described above), were forced
that could alleviate the financial pressure they currently
to explore new ways of doing business, as European
experience: increase the number of top matches. This
stadium gates were closed for most of the year. Not all
goal has been the catalyst behind competition reforms
clubs and leagues can count on superstars and millions
on both the national and European level and has recently
of fans across the world. Smaller and even medium-sized
led to an increased number of concrete plans for cross-
clubs who play in Europe’s smaller leagues can feel their
border leagues that promise more top matches.
European football at a new crossroads?
The sector has known 30 years of prosperity since the Rethinking the existing structures, competition formats
beginning of the ‘90s, especially with the success stories and regulations is a trend that will reach beyond the
of the Champions League and Premier League as the two European competitions. Eventually it will find its way to
major outspoken accomplishments. Today we can say the national leagues too.
that the shift in how consumers want to be entertained,
Another consequence of the last 30 years is the
the pressure from overseas competitors and the financial
disproportional development of some of the biggest clubs,
distress caused by COVID-19, has put European football
and the pace at which they are able to pull away from the
at a crossroads again. The outcome of the UEFA post-’24
rest of the pack. The strongest clubs (and brands) in each
and new potential Champions League format is a clear
country are increasingly putting pressure on the model
indication that more fundamental questions about the
of solidarity that has long been a widely accepted way of
future of European football are being asked on all levels.
distributing revenue across a league.
13
The Guardian, ‘MLS is pulling fans into stadiums, but TV audiences remain underwhelming’
14
Chinese Football Association Super League (CSL), 2019 Annual Review of Commercial Performance (in collaboration with Deloitte)
11The future of European football
3. Where is it going?
Two major trends will play a key a role in shaping the future of European club football. These two trends are:
1. National vs. cross-border competitions
2. League- vs. club-driven (US based or European based)
Figure 6
National vs. cross-border competitions:
This trend describes a shift from domestic, club-ruled However, as revenues have sky rocketed for the biggest
competitions towards a European landscape with a leagues, smaller leagues are looking for possibilities to
commercially driven, cross-border league. One trend that co-operate now more than ever. Ireland and Northern
could emerge (and that is partly already happening) is the Ireland are investigating a joint venture, the Balkan Super
bundling of (mid-tier) forces around Europe to combine League has been mentioned (combining 7 smaller leagues)
strength in order to battle the 5 biggest leagues. Offering and the feasibility of the BeNeLiga, a joint competition
resistance both on and off the field. Where the English between Belgium and the Netherlands, is currently being
Premier League is in a league of its own with revenues investigated.
surpassing the €6 billion mark (2018/2019), it is also very
However, not only the mid-tier clubs are looking for cross-
difficult to see leagues like the Dutch Eredivisie (€577m
border possibilities to improve their current status quo.
in 18/19) catch up with the fifth biggest league which
Rumors of a European Super League had been underway
is the Ligue 1 (€1,9b). Talks in the early ‘90s proposed
for quite a while. This competition would feature 15 of the
a Transatlantic League, combining the competitions of
biggest clubs in Europe as permanent members and 5
Scandinavian countries, Scotland and the BeNeLux
play-off spots for additional teams to compete for.
12The future of European football
It is generally accepted that 6 English Premier League potentially devastating effect on domestic leagues and
teams stand out from the other teams. The current smaller clubs, the initiating clubs started to withdraw
Champions League format means that 2 teams miss from the concept in no time. Whether the initiative will
out every year to be a part of this money-infused be buried forever remains to be seen. Overall, multiple
competition. With the European Super League, these 6 trends (globalization, growing football interest and
teams are guaranteed a place amongst Europe’s elite. growing socio-economic mid-class in emerging markets
In April 2021, 12 clubs from the Premier League, La Liga and more types of broadcasters to serve football fans)
and Serie A announced they would start realizing the are “pushing” European football to the bottom right of
idea of the Super League. However, the backlash of figure 6 (the scenarios), the “Pan-European Orchestra”.
heavy criticism from FIFA, UEFA and fans regarding the
League-driven vs. club-driven
The five biggest American sports leagues: the National inequalities, hampering the competitiveness between
Football League (NFL), Major League Baseball (MLB), clubs and thus eventually their sport’s excitement.
National Basketball Association (NBA), the National
As the main revenue driver for professional sports is
Hockey League (NHL) and the Major League Soccer (MLS),
the popularity amongst the fans, the ultimate goals is
are good examples of leagues with a more centralized
to sustain a league’s competitiveness and excitement.
commercial approach. Looking at their broadcast
This is why revenue sharing mechanisms have been put
rights, two streams of broadcast revenue for clubs can
in place to prevent extreme inequalities. In the MLB,
be identified: local and national. The national revenue
for example, 48% of the local revenues are pooled and
streams are the league-level, centralized revenues that
equally distributed amongst all 30 teams. Both the equal
typically are distributed equally amongst the clubs. Local
distribution of centralized national revenues and the
revenues are the media and other commercial rights
mechanism for sharing local revenues ensure relatively
deals that clubs can negotiate with local broadcasters
small differences in club revenues to sustain the league’s
and partners. The differences in commercial income are
competitiveness and thus its excitement. In the case of
predominantly determined by the differences in local
the MLB, the league as a whole drives the value more
revenues. In the US, the league organizations understand
than the main product and brand, while in European
that these local revenues could cause economic
football leagues this can be driven by single clubs.
13The future of European football Scenario 1: Power to the Roots. Club-driven national competitions 14
The future of European football
This scenario is most similar to the currently existing In parallel, most of the commercial power remains with
competition structures in European domestic football. the clubs as has been the case for the last few years. In
All clubs will still play the majority of the matches within such a model, clubs will continue to monetize the majority
the national competition, which will remain the dominant of their commercial rights. In most domestic leagues
league. Other competitions, such as local cups and the exceptions to that rule are the collective tendering
cross-border leagues (European leagues) will continue and selling of broadcast rights, and some of the league
to exist next to the domestic leagues. The majority of commercial rights (e.g. league naming sponsor), although
domestic leagues range from 34 to 38 matches per club this could also be subject to change in the future
per season, depending on the number of teams in that
domestic league.
Commercial impact
We can expect clubs to monetize most of their Those solidarity discussions get an extra dimension as
commercial rights individually, as is currently the case. technology advances, such as the potential of high-quality
While we do not see leagues stepping away from the OTT streaming. This makes it easier for clubs to opt for
model of collectively tendering the media rights of the an individual approach when tendering the media rights,
league right now (e.g., the new Serie A cycle for 2021/24 which would mostly benefit the bigger clubs in the league.
is still a collective tendering process), we can expect Those increased tensions already arise, as clubs are
continued discussions between clubs within a league increasingly looking to engage with their fans through
whether the solidarity principles applied within such a innovative ways (loyalty programs, live sessions, etc.) via
collective approach are sustainable. A good example social media and their own platforms with all kinds of
is the Premier League, which collectively tenders the (near-live) short-form content, for which the exclusivity of
broadcast rights for its domestic and international those images usually sits with the media partner.
market. For the international rights, the clubs agreed
Finally, commercial partners (and partnerships) will still
(when founding the Premier League) that they would split
be very much focused on the domestic market, with
any revenue equally. However, nowadays the international
many national (and at times even local) players continuing
broadcast revenue accounts for more than half of the
to keep an interest in football, while league-wide
generated broadcast revenue. Especially the bigger
sponsorships will continue to exist on a national level. This
clubs (the Big 6) feel that this is an unfair distribution
also includes an additional risk, namely that bigger clubs
mechanism, as those clubs are the main drivers for the
in a domestic market will be able to keep more closer ties
international appeal and viewership of the league. Only
with the big corporations within a country (and potentially
recently (2019/20) has there been a slight correction to
partner with international corporates), while smaller clubs
this distribution mechanism15 .
might be left behind with smaller commercial partners.
Football impact
A downside of this evolution in a club-driven model is that here is the Dutch Eredivisie, which distributes central
a too individualistic approach can hurt the competitive media revenue purely on weighted average performance
balance within a league over time. In the long run, of the last 10 years, resulting in the highest earning
financial and on-pitch performance go hand in hand, and club receiving 5 times the amount of the lowest earning
in the absence of solidarity payments the biggest clubs club within the league, further exacerbating imbalance
in a league can outgrow the competition. This possible in league. If the league is greater than its individual
imbalance does not only materialize when clubs take an competitors, these imbalances need to be resolved.
individual approach to rights tendering. A good example
15The future of European football
Club impact
One way to cope with the above trend is to bring in Clubs will face tough discussions on how to best structure
external investment or as a club to become part of a the national leagues and to find new ways on how to
consortium of clubs in a multi-club ownership model. (e.g. grow the domestic league product. An example could
City Football Group or the Red Bull consortium). Those be to consider alternative competition formats (like the
examples have shown that when applied correctly, all Belgian or Austrian examples, where the title is decided
clubs within the consortium can benefit from the group through a number of play-off matches) to improve the
achievements and that each club in its individual league competitiveness and overall league quality. Decreasing
has the ability to grow and develop. In this scenario, multi- solidarity from the bigger domestic clubs (as discussed
club ownership can potentially play an important role. in the commercial impact section) with the smaller clubs
It can help (smaller) clubs in mid to small-sized leagues can eventually lead to some clubs becoming “too big to
to grow and establish a stronger foothold within their fail” (e.g., Bayern Munich in Germany). Lyon in France
national league. The big clubs from the Big 5 leagues in the ‘00s was a good example of a club too big to fail,
will see this as a model in which they will have the but their leadership position was taken over by Paris-
opportunity to have multiple clubs under their belt, and Saint Germain, fueled by external investment (in the
use that to nurture and grow upcoming talent and invest last 8 seasons, PSG won 7 domestic league titles). For
in their development. The big advantage is that clubs will the attractiveness of the domestic football product this
be able to acquire talent at a young age and foster that development can be harmful in the long run.
talent within the group, avoiding excess transfer and
agent fees.
Fan impact
For the European football fans this scenario implies leagues such as Premier league, La Liga, Serie A,
that they will continue to engage with their local clubs Bundesliga and Ligue 1. These leagues have the
and will continue to consume the football product as advantage of a high number of blockbuster teams
they have been used to so far. The competition for the (Liverpool, Barcelona, Bayern Munich) in the league,
domestic fan will especially be very big in small to mid- as well as global football stars (C. Ronaldo, Neymar JR)
sized leagues, as fans are constantly offered attractive generating viewership for those leagues. Competition
and high-quality matches from the Big 5 leagues. This in those markets is, however, not limited to European
often creates a trade-off in terms of whether they want to leagues as also leagues like the MLS (US) or the Chinese
watch domestic vs. international football (Big 5 football). Super League are looking for a piece of the pie. For non-
Adding to this trend is the appeal that those big clubs gain Big 5 European leagues it might be more challenging to
by playing in the Champions League. A study performed generate significant international revenue, although they
by COPA90 in the UK (2018) neatly shows this local vs. could potentially leverage on the international appeal
global evolution, indicating that most UK fans are now of one of their star teams (e.g., Ajax in NL) or focus on
supporting one local club and one “global” club (a club not getting foreign stars to play in the league (e.g., Lozano
part of their domestic league)16. when he played at PSV Eindhoven).
Looking outside of Europe, the competition for the
international (non-EU) fan is even more fierce, with
15
https://www.planetfootball.com/quick-reads/club-by-club-a-breakdown-of-the-2019-20-premier-league-prize-money/
16
https://talksport.com/football/419143/nearly-half-of-16-24-year-olds-in-the-uk-support-at-least-two-football-teams/
16The future of European football
Player impact
We can expect the effects on players to be somewhat in Big 5 leagues). Some players will also transfer abroad to
line with the current model, as the impact on the football grow their skills and develop in a training league. The only
pyramid will be limited. More precisely, we can expect significant change to this model we can expect to see is
the best domestic talent to be transferred at a young age in case the multi-club ownership arises, with more player
(probably already in the youth categories) to the biggest mobility within the group, lowering the transfer fees but
domestic clubs, where they will develop, with the best equally giving players less incentive to leave a club as they
making it into the A team. While for some this might be can continue to develop themselves at a higher level or a
the last step, we can expect the very best to move on lower level within the same group.
and play for a club in a bigger league (potentially the
17The future of European football Scenario 2: All for One, One for All. League-driven national competitions 18
The future of European football
This scenario is similar to the previous one in termsof between US leagues (of the same sport). As shown in
elevating decision power away from clubs towards figure 7 below, which compares the top 12 leagues’
the league level. The difference is that most matches revenue of the NFL with the European football (or soccer)
will continue to be played within the national leagues. leagues, we see the main revenue being generated by
As described in the intro, the league-driven aspect the top NFL league. In European football revenue has
of this scenario is comparable with most US sports a greater spread between the top leagues in Europe,
competitions, in which more commercial deals are especially amongst the Big 5. This underlines the focus of
negotiated at league level and revenue is more equally the US on their top league, which is more challenging in a
spread amongst the clubs. In contrast to the revenue European situation.
equality within the US leagues, there is less equality
Figure 7: Revenues by league for the top 12 (€bn, 2018/19)
12,971
3,156 3,145
5,439 2,419 2,307
1,694 1,581
752 748 497 391 440
1,632 1,580
877 840 782 490 395 387 347 303 42
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
American Football, Revenue per league (€20,647 bn) Global Football, Revenue per league (€22,569 bn)
Commercial impact
While in the most European national leagues only model. This collective model typically brings in significant
the broadcast rights are centrally commercialized, higher broadcast revenues compared to the sum of
this scenario, as stated, would mean that also other clubs’ broadcast revenues in an individual selling model.
commercial rights could be centralized. In the 2016/17 But, the key question here is whether centralizing other
season, the Spanish La Liga was the last of the Big 5 commercial rights of national leagues would increase the
European Leagues to implement a collective broadcast total sum as well.
19The future of European football
Thus, the power of this scenario would be in centralizing current sponsor portfolios of European football clubs as,
other commercial rights as well, such as the league’s especially for the smaller leagues and clubs, the focus
main sponsor, commercial partners, shirt sponsor, kit will shift away from local partners towards bigger and
sponsors and field boarding. Examples of this model more international companies. However, as the league
can already be seen in the current Champions League, remains national, attracting sufficient large partners
in which the commercial partners and field boarding to value the centralised commercial rights might be a
are commercialized centrally at league level. This more challenge for the mid to small-sized European football
centralized approach would have a huge impact on the leagues.
Club impact
For European football clubs, a more league-driven league. A second effect of this scenario could be a change
league could imply a centralization of the clubs’ specific in club ownership. With decision power of commercial
commercial rights (sponsorships, field boarding, kit rights moving away from individual clubs towards the
sponsors, etc.). The league would carry the responsibility league, it might become less interesting to invest in
of bringing to market the collective rights of the clubs. clubs, as owners will not have the full decision power in
This model only works when the total, centralized respect to the commercial rights. Having the league as a
commercial rights represent a higher value than the more empowered entity means less flexibility for clubs
sum of the commercial rights of the individual clubs. owners to exploit and build their own brand. Other than
As highlighted by the US examples, it is likely that the business model around the commercial rights and
in this model revenue will be more equally shared club ownership, not much direct effect of this scenario is
amongst clubs. This could benefit the league’s overall expected for clubs, as the majority of the matches played
competitiveness. Smaller clubs will potentially benefit in a season will be in the national league.
from the commercial value of the bigger clubs in the
Fan impact
For the European football fans this scenario implies leagues such as Premier league, La Liga, Serie A,
that they will continue to engage with their local clubs Bundesliga and Ligue 1. These leagues have the
and will continue to consume the football product as advantage of a high number of blockbuster teams
they have been used to so far. The competition for the (Liverpool, Barcelona, Bayern Munich) in the league,
domestic fan will especially be very big in small to mid- as well as global football stars (C. Ronaldo, Neymar JR)
sized leagues, as fans are constantly offered attractive generating viewership for those leagues. Competition
and high-quality matches from the Big 5 leagues. This in those markets is, however, not limited to European
often creates a trade-off in terms of whether they want to leagues as also leagues like the MLS (US) or the Chinese
watch domestic vs. international football (Big 5 football). Super League are looking for a piece of the pie. For non-
Adding to this trend is the appeal that those big clubs gain Big 5 European leagues it might be more challenging to
by playing in the Champions League. A study performed generate significant international revenue, although they
by COPA90 in the UK (2018) neatly shows this local vs. could potentially leverage on the international appeal
global evolution, indicating that most UK fans are now of one of their star teams (e.g., Ajax in NL) or focus on
supporting one local club and one “global” club (a club not getting foreign stars to play in the league (e.g., Lozano
part of their domestic league)16. when he played at PSV Eindhoven).
Looking outside of Europe, the competition for the
international (non-EU) fan is even more fierce, with
17
CAFI, European Leagues
20The future of European football
Player impact
This scenario could 2x players affect players. Currently, structures of clubs. To ensure equality and excitement
in most European leagues, the larger clubs buy the most within the league, the league could implement new
talented players from the smaller clubs. They have the regulations such as a salary cap like, for example, in
buying power to pay the transfer fees and higher player the NBA. Another example of this would be the draft
salaries. In a model where commercial rights are more regulations that are in place in NFL, MLB, NHL and NBA,
centralized and club revenues are distributed more in which teams are eligible to pick young talent from the
equally, smaller clubs could potentially be able to keep ‘Draft’ in an order based on performance in the league.
talent longer and attract new players from other clubs, The actual implementation and enforcement of such
inside and outside the league. With more decision power regulations will be challenging in European football, as
at league level, this scenario could also impact the cost this is currently not used in European football leagues.
21The future of European football Scenario 3: Borderless dreams. Club-driven cross-border competitions 22
The future of European football
In this scenario, the main change from the current is driven by top clubs starting to outgrow their domestic
situation is the rise of cross-border activity in football leagues, becoming the number 1 without facing much
leagues, in which clubs will have started to rethink their resistance from other clubs. An example of this is Paris
current structures of domestic competitions. Top tier Saint-Germain becoming the French domestic champion
clubs will have started to compete in a big cross-border for 7 times in 8 years, or Ajax breaking a new domestic
competition, and mid sized football leagues will have record in the Dutch Eredivisie with their 13-0 win against
started to look for cross-border alternatives. This change VVV-Venlo.
Commercial impact
Commercially, if there is still a high level of decentralization the clubs within those divisions could decrease.
by clubs, the arrival of cross-border leagues can increase
All clubs can benefit commercially, as long as solidarity
financial imbalances between clubs. Clubs that will play a
payments from clubs participating in the highest league
cross-border league next to their domestic league will face
are high enough to compensate for a loss in matchday/
a substantial financial imbalance compared with the clubs
commercial income for the clubs that don’t play matches
that only play in the domestic leagues. On the other hand,
anymore against the top clubs because of relegation.
clubs that leave their highest division to play in a new,
The total amount of money to distribute will increase, as
cross-border league, need to find solutions to get clubs
commercial partners see a larger market in the renewed
onboard from the domestic leagues that they are leaving,
cross-border competition. What’s more, the interest from
most likely in the form of guarantees such as solidarity
global players will increase, as the new league involves
payments. In this case, the financial gap will no longer be
fans beyond the domestic markets. Next to that, putting
within the domestic league, but between the cross-border
a country’s best teams in a single league results in more
league and the highest domestic league that follows. This
high intensity matches, adding to the international appeal
will cause difficulties for clubs on the edge of relegation,
of the league. This leads to an increase in broadcast
which are not certain to play in the cross-border league
income, but can also potentially affect the future calendar,
each year. In case of bad club governance, the gap
if matches gain more income when played on a timeslot
between clubs participating in the highest and second-
that is beneficial across time zones.
highest division could increase, whereas the gap between
Club impact
Large football federations (FIFA and UEFA) can feel again visible with the coming of a third UEFA league next
threatened by these initiatives, as they are not necessarily to the Champions League and the Europa League: the
involved in shaping these leagues. It remains to be seen Conference League. Where the countries with the highest
whether they have enough power to put a stop to this. UEFA coefficients only lose 1 Europa League ticket for a
Big 5 leagues have increased the gap with smaller leagues less valuable Conference League ticket, mostly the mid-
from both a sportive and commercial perspective, and this sized country leagues will suffer from a decrease in the
gap is likely to even further increase in the future. This is value of their UEFA tickets.
23The future of European football First-tier clubs start looking for a bigger challenge, and Transatlantic League (Sweden, Denmark, Norway, there are initial plans for clubs to collaborate and start Ireland and Scotland) and a BeNeLiga (Belgium and the playing in a European Super League. Though the plan Netherlands). If these cross-border initiatives replace is to combine the league with domestic leagues, most the highest divisions in countries, the domestic league likely the focus will shift away from domestic leagues, structures need to be reorganized. Creating new leagues and participation in UEFA leagues might no longer be provides an opportunity to rethink existing competition interesting for these clubs. First-tier clubs that are not structures, and to come up with innovative solutions. The eligible to participate in the European Super League will entire football pyramid can benefit in terms of sportive start looking for their own cross-border competition. merit due to a more balanced level of the clubs within the Examples of currently explored alternatives are the leagues. Fan impact Fans will see an increase in top matches due to cross- to the current domestic leagues. However, fans of clubs border leagues. Though fans might miss out on their that “stay behind” will miss out on matches against top favorite derby in the first year of a new league, this is soon clubs, which are usually the most exciting matches for compensated for by the increased number of exciting them during the competition. Besides that, there could matches between top clubs. Especially the group of “light be a group of fans that feels less related to their local club fans”, who only watch matches between top clubs, they when the club’s character becomes more international. will be more engaged in cross-border leagues compared Player impact Finally, players expect to see a positive impact from the per country. These can function as training leagues, after creation of cross-border leagues, as there will be more which they can potentially transfer to the cross-border exciting games, and their transfer value is expected to league. From there, the level is higher and their transfer go up. Players can practice in the new highest divisions value is expected to further increase. 24
The future of European football
25The future of European football Scenario 4: Pan-European Orchestra. League-driven cross- border competitions 26
The future of European football
This scenario could be regarded as the most combine their strength. Such a scenario focuses on a high
revolutionary compared to the current football landscape. degree of centralization at league level, in comparison
Not only would power shift from individual clubs to the with the current UEFA Champions League model. This
leagues, it also explores the possibilities of top tier clubs could be done by guaranteeing high equality in terms
competing in a big cross-border competition and other, of revenue distribution, which could enforce both
first-tier clubs looking for cross border alternatives to commercial and sportive equality within football leagues.
Commercial impact
Traditionally, sponsorships started with the clubs. to monetize their own sponsorship deals, it is the league
Professional clubs started to look for sponsors to increase brand that comes first. The motivation behind this is the
their spending power in respect of transfers and salaries. expanded audience. Compared with a single football club,
For most leagues, only the broadcasting rights were a whole league has a bigger potential market and would
centrally organized. League sponsorship was additionally thus generate more revenue (by being greater than the
introduced in the early ‘90s to strengthen the competition sum of both parts).
(financially). Nowadays leagues like the Premier League
For example, the creation of a European Super League
bring in substantial money from several sponsors to divide
would attract different commercial partners compared to
amongst its participants.
domestic leagues such as the Serie A or the Bundesliga.
This scenario would change the way European clubs look By creating a cross-border competition with all of
at monetization of commercial rights. At the moment, Europe’s football giants, a wider international audience
clubs are eagerly looking for possible ways to expand is to be expected to tune in. It gives multinationals the
their revenue. For example, club documentaries on opportunity to play on many different commercial markets
OTT services such as Netflix and Amazon are becoming at the same time with a single sponsorship deal.
increasingly more popular. To put the emphasis more
However, the Super League participants could leave
on the league instead of the clubs, cross-border leagues
the domestic leagues to focus solely on the league that
would have to follow the example of the Champions
brings in the highest revenue. The national leagues such
League or the Major League Soccer (MLS). These cross-
as the Primera Division would lose much of its appeal
border leagues monetize their brand, regardless of the
(both globally and locally) if teams like Barcelona or Real
teams that participate. The Champions League model
Madrid are absent. The question is, what this would
features as an example of centrally arranged commercial
mean for its viewing figures and consequently its revenue
partnerships instead of individual sponsorships. The
from broadcasting deals? Would the average football fan
Champions League allows room for a maximum of 8
(both globally and locally) still be interested in watching
commercial partners, which are featured during all games
the Premier League without the popular teams from
and are allowed to commercially use the Champions
Manchester, Liverpool and London? Such a development
League brand. Companies like Heineken favor to identify
could have serious commercial implications for domestic
their brand with the Champions League brand instead
leagues that stay behind.
of the clubs participating in it. Whilst teams are still able
27The future of European football
Club impact
The creation of new super leagues or league mergers distribution. Creating less leagues dominated by one
would complicate the current football ecosystem. UEFA or two clubs such as the Scottish Premiership and the
league tickets are currently distributed per country, Austrian Bundesliga. Clubs in cross-border competitions
giving each nation the opportunity to participate in would have to shift focus to the bigger picture,
European leagues. By combining forces and creating strengthening the league instead of focusing on their own
a new status quo, UEFA would need to go back to the performance.
drawing board, as joint competitions are expected to look
What would this mean for the clubs left behind? Let’s
for equal chances of participating in Europe. This could
take the idea of a BeNeLiga as an example, combining
be a potential bottleneck for cross-border competitions.
the biggest Dutch and Belgian clubs. The teams left
Are they allowed the same number of UEFA spots or are
behind are primarily smaller, regionally supported clubs.
they willing to sacrifice those for an increased league
These teams would keep their domestic league, battling
revenue? Such complicated cross-border competitions
for a promotion spot to the BeNeLiga. The domestic
could benefit from a centrally driven approach, having to
leagues would also see a shift in power, having different
govern many aspects, such as broadcasting rights, safety,
teams battle to become national champions. The newly
arbitration and other revenue streams.
created leagues would have to provide guarantees such
Subsequently, this scenario could mean a power shift as solidarity payments, to make sure the teams left
in the balance of European football. As it is right now, 5 behind would benefit from such mergers. The voting
European leagues stand out in terms of revenue (England, structure of the domestic leagues means the support of
Spain, Germany, Italy & France). By creating cross- all teams involved is needed to realize these cross-border
border competitions, new competitors arise to make an competitions. Thus, it is necessary for all teams to gain a
impact in the UEFA leagues. This possibly diminishes the commercial advantage. Due to the regional attractiveness
increasingly expanding commercial gap with the Big 5 for fans and sponsors, domestic competitions would still
leagues. To make this work for all clubs involved in such a require a club-driven focus.
league, it would mean high equality in terms of revenue
Fan impact
A European Super League, Transatlantic League or fans. In every league, matches between the top sides
BeNeLiga – all possible new formats would have a stirring always score the highest view ratings because of the,
effect on the fans. Most leagues have been running for generally, high level of football being played. Cross-border
decades with fans being familiar most of the league competitions are expected to see their view ratings
teams and the occasional “new kid on the block”, which improve and, hence, they will be more interesting to both
fights its way up from the lower leagues. Introducing a national and international broadcasting players. It will be
whole new format with teams from a foreign league could interesting to see what the effect of international fans on
alienate fans who favor tradition and familiarity in the a cross-border competition would be. For example, to
football culture they grew up with. When merging leagues, appeal to a bigger audience – the Serie A decided to play
fans will have to grow accustomed to a whole new array some of its matches early on weekend days to cater to its
of teams with unknown identities. On the other side, audience in different time zones. A commercial decision
a surplus of A-level matches in newly created leagues to make the Italian league more appealing to a global
could appeal to the casual (less club-focused) football audience.
15
https://www.planetfootball.com/quick-reads/club-by-club-a-breakdown-of-the-2019-20-premier-league-prize-money/
16
https://talksport.com/football/419143/nearly-half-of-16-24-year-olds-in-the-uk-support-at-least-two-football-teams/
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