EGVI - 10 year impact assessment - Key Highlights | ERTRAC Annual Conference 2019, April 2019
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EGVI – 10 year impact assessment Key Highlights | ERTRAC Annual Conference 2019, April 2019
STUDY OBJECTIVES
EGVI has decided to carry out a comprehensive impact assessment covering its
decade of existence with the support of 2 external consultancies: Advancy & EMISIA
Objective of study is to assess the benefits & impacts of EGVI along several dimensions
} CO2 savings thanks to the market introduction of more efficient combustion engines, electrification and
alternative powertrains
} Market development of EVs, Hybrids and alternative fuels vehicles
} Increase of Europe competitiveness with a specific focus on the financial crisis of 2009
} Leverage effect of the PPP on private R&D investment
} Creation of new jobs across the European Union
} Development of new skills around E-Mobility and smart mobility systems
} Emergence and participation of SMEs in the new green transportation eco-system.
Presentation to ERTRAC Annual Conference 2019 2MOBILITY GROWTH
Mobility of people & goods is expected to grow at +1,8% & +2,8% per year calling for
new ways to drastically reduce CO2 and emissions to compensate for this increase
Mobility of passenger & goods
MODAL SPLIT RAIL VS. ROAD FOR PASSENGER TRANSPORTATION1| MODAL SPLIT RAIL VS. ROAD FOR GOODS TRANSPORTATION |
2015-2030, BILLION PASSENGER.KM 2015-2030, BILLION TON.KM
+1,8% p.a.
c.6,500 c.3,200
+2,8%
c.5,000
C2,100
75% Road +2,4% p.a.
91% Passenger Car +1,8% p.a.
91% 81%
25% Railway +4,4%
9% Railway +1,9% p.a. 19%
9%
2015 2030 2015 2030
1. Excluding 2/3-wheeler, tram & metro who represent.10-15% of total mobility
Source: EU Transport GHG 2050 report – AEA, TNO, ISIS
HOWEVER THE ROLE OF ROAD TRANSPORTATION IS SET TO REMAIN DOMINANT COMPARED TO RAIL,
WITH 1:9 RATIO FOR PASSENGER TRANSPORTATION AND A 1:4 TO 1:3 RATIO IN FREIGHT
Presentation to ERTRAC Annual Conference 2019 3IMPACT
Covering many different areas in the field of improvement of energy efficiency, EGVI
has improved the performance of many vehicle types & has been a success so far
} Helping achieve CO2 emission reduction: reduction potential amounts to 34% by 2030 compared to 2015 best
in class vehicles, of which 10% thanks to fleet electrification and 24% is due to type improvements at vehicle
level and improvement of traffic conditions which EGVI projects are contributing to.
} Accompanying the growth of automotive R&D spend leading to highly skilled job creation within the EU,
including within SMEs & outside of the automotive industry.
} Supporting the European industry to enter and take a leading position in the race of Green Vehicle
technologies.
} Fostering new technology developments to help Europe keeps its leadership in automotive innovation and
low emission vehicles.
Presentation to ERTRAC Annual Conference 2019 4IMPACT
Automotive R&D has doubled in a decade on a global basis driven by regulation on
emissions and safety and innovation; EU share is constant at c.45% over the period
R&D spending evolution
R&D SPEND OF ALL AUTOMOTIVE PLAYERS | €BN, 2007-2017, WORLDWIDE, EU
CAGR CAGR CAGR
EU
RoW €124bn ’07-’10 ’11-’13 ’14-’17 COMMENTS
+9%
€114bn
€107bn } Global R&D has
increased by 7%
+2% €95bn from 2007 to 2017
55% 4% -3% 10% } EU share of R&D has
€85bn €84bn
€80bn 53% remained stable
+4% 54% over the period at
€68bn c.45% of global R&D
54%
€61bn €63bn €63bn 53% 50% } 3 phases of growth :
55% § 1st plateau : 2007-
56% 2010 (€65bn)
55% 55% 57%
§ 2nd plateau :
2011-2013
47% 45% 3% 8% 8% (€80bn)
46% (€56bn)
47% 50% 46% (€50bn)
(€54bn)
45% (€42bn) (€44bn) § Recent growing
45% 45% 43% 44% (€36bn) (€40bn)
(€28bn) (€29bn) (€27bn) (€30bn) phase : since
2014
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
CHALLENGE FOR EUROPE IS TO KEEP THIS LEADERSHIP WHICH TRANSLATES INTO HIGH VALUE ADDED JOB IN EU
Source: IRI EU industrial R&D Investment Scoreboard, Advancy analysis Presentation to ERTRAC Annual Conference 2019 5IMPACT
The number of new electrified cars launched on the market has started to accelerate
in 2015 and is expected to represent two third of new market introduction in 2025
Product plan by type of propulsion system design – Europe & World
NUMBER OF NEW MODELS PER TYPE OF PROPULSION SYSTEM PER YEAR| #, 3Y AVERAGE, 2009-2026
765 857 768 752 522 433 1.727 2.359 2.096 2.328 1.604 1.511
36%
49%
54%
59%
73% 75%
85% 86%
99% 98% 97% 95%
57%
36% 43%
32%
22% 20%
14% 10%
1% 1% 1% 9% 8% 8% 8%
1% 1% 4% 2% 1% 3% 2% 3% 5%
2009- 2012- 2015- 2018- 2021- 2024- 2009- 2012- 2015- 2018- 2021- 2024-
2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026
Reminder : an electrified vehicle model has a design time of 3 years
Electric Hybrid (Full + Mild) ICE
Source: IHS 2018, Advancy analysis
HYBRIDS WILL HAVE THE LION SHARE & EVs WILL REPRESENT LESS THAN 10% OF NEW MODELS
Presentation to ERTRAC Annual Conference 2019 6IMPACT
European OEMs will account for about 30% of new EV and 40% of new Hybrid
models introduced on the market in the next five years
Product plan by origin of OEM – Electric & Hybrid
NUMBER OF ELECTRIC AND HYBRID MODELS PER OEM ORIGIN PER YEAR| #, 3Y AVERAGE, 2009-2026
ELECTRIC HYBRID EU RoW
18 39 69 117 134 123 27 75 216 463 515 653
50%
64% 64% 63% 62%
73% 73%
78% 81% 78%
89% 85%
50%
36% 36% 37% 38%
27% 27%
22% 19% 22%
11% 15%
2009- 2012- 2015- 2018- 2021- 2024- 2009- 2012- 2015- 2018- 2021- 2024-
2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026
Reminder : an electrified vehicle model has a design time of 3 years
NUMBER OF EV MODELS HAS BEEN MULTIPLIED BY 3 & HYBRIDS BY 9 SINCE 2014
Source: IHS 2018, Advancy analysis Presentation to ERTRAC Annual Conference 2019 7IQUALITATIVE MPACT
In addition to quantitative emission reduction, EGVI PPP projects have allowed to
reap qualitative benefits for the European ecosystem of green road mobility
EU RESEARCH ECOSYSTEM NEW SKILLS IN GREEN AND BENEFITS OUTSIDE OF THE
AROUND GREEN VEHICLES SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTATION AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY
§ Allowing sufficient collaboration § Battery chemistry innovation in § Disseminating innovation
time between stakeholders to the path to higher energy beyond automotive through
achieve sizeable and long-term density additional synergy effect for
projects goals § Battery safety management to other industries
§ Giving SMEs access to large reduce hazards linked with EVs § Long-lasting impact on design
industrial corporations and foster faster adoption capabilities through the
§ Bringing CROs closer to § In-vehicle software for development of tools, especially
industrial stakeholders improved vehicle system energy for simulation
§ Helping sustain academic management § Facilitating collaboration across
research relevant to the the ecosystem by establishing
Industry standards & paving the way
towards interoperability
§ Enabling future commercial
relationships between § Improving road experience for
European companies during EU citizens & road-users
competitive stages
Presentation to ERTRAC Annual Conference 2019 8IMPACT
Electrified vehicle industry is expected to yield a significant number of jobs,
especially skilled and semi-skilled jobs both in R&D and Manufacturing
Electrified vehicle impact on employment – EU benchmark
GROSS EMPLOYEES CREATION LINKED WITH EV PENETRATION |
2017-2030, EU, THOUSANDS OF JOBS TYPE OF JOB CREATED
Field Skilled Semi- Un- Representative job
skilled skilled profiles
200 Scientific
Chemists, materials
research of ü û û
scientists
batteries
169
Design and Engineers, engineering
development of technicians, software
142 ü ü û
automotive developers, industrial
techno designers
116
Assemblers, machinists,
Manufacturing ü ü û
94 production manager
73 Vehicle Automotive service
û ü ü
60 maintenance technicians, mechanics
47
Urban and regional
36
26 Infrastructure planners, powerline
21 ü ü û
16 development installers/repairers,
9 11 electricians
Retail salespersons,
Sales and
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 û ü ü customer service
support
representatives
EMPLOYEES CREATION FOR ELECTRIFIED VEHICLE INDUSTRY ASSUMING
35% SHARE OF EV IN EUROPEAN NEW VEHICLE MIX IN 2030 AND EMPLOYEES CREATION FOR ELECTRIFIED VEHICLE INDUSTRY
PROGRESSIVE RAMP-UP
Source : Source: AIF – European Association of Electrical contractors – Powering a new value chain in the Automotive , US forecast Synapse Energy economics, International robotics
and Automation journal, Advancy analysis
Presentation to ERTRAC Annual Conference 2019 9CHALLENGEST
However, EU is facing many challenges ahead to keep its leadership and R&D in
Green Vehicles should be accelerated in terms of amount and topics
} Production challenges: the shift to green powertrain at sales level will reduce vehicle production in Europe if
the fall of ICE production is not compensated.
} Technical challenges: the future CO2 emissions targets are very challenging and can only be achieved by
investigating all technical options available, at an acceptable cost level.
} A competitive challenge: several new contenders emerging in comparison to the 2008-2017 period,
especially China where the industry weight in the GDP has tripled in less than 15 years.
} A research funding challenge: China, USA & Japan invest between €100M and €1Bn per year in public funded
research that needs to be matched by the EU to stay in the global race.
Presentation to ERTRAC Annual Conference 2019 10CHALLENGES
Achieving a net job creation for the automotive industry will require to capture a
significant portion of EV manufacturing in Europe including Battery production
Car manufacturing job projections
CAR MANUFACTURING JOB PROJECTIONS FOR 2030| VS. 2020 BASELINE
Assuming 35% share of EV in European new vehicle mix in 2030 and progressive
108
100 98 10
4
26 30
72
68 4
100
68 68 68 68
Baseline 2020 No EV 10% of EV 90% of EV 120% of EV
production in sales made sales made Sales made
the EU in the EU in the EU in the EU
Jobs from Battery production Jobs from EV production Jobs from ICE production
ONE THIRD OF MANUFACTURING JOBS IN EU ARE AT STAKE BY 2030
Source: Transport & Environment, European Climate Foundation Presentation to ERTRAC Annual Conference 2019 11CHALLENGES
EU CO2 emission targets are expected to reach below 60g/km in 2030 calling for a
combination of all technical options available at an affordable cost
Target reduction of CO2 emission
ZOOM ON EUROPE, CO2 EMISSIONS VALUES | G/KM, OEM TECHNICAL OPTIONS TO REDUCE CO2 / IMPROVE FUEL
NORMALIZED TO NEDC ECONOMY
NEDC Reference Scenario
220 NEDC + Conformity factor Scenario gCO2 / km improvement range
per technical option €/gCO2
200
Min Max
180 Transmission/gearbox
3 4
160 4 Stop-start 4 ~30-35€
140 1 Auxiliary consumption 5 ~10-15€
123
120 3 Rolling resistance 5 ~25-30€
-4,4%/year CO2
reduction 2 Aerodynamics 6 ~20-25€
100
80 74 6 ICE improvement 15 ~20-25€
60
60 10 Hybrid 30 ~40-45€
63 42
4 Traditional LW (HSS/Al) 12 ~35-40€
40 -6,5%/year CO2
reduction 12 Extreme LW (composite) 35 >100€
20
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
THE LOW HANGING FRUITS OF EMISSIONS REDUCTION HAVE BEEN PICKED, CALLING NOW FOR DISRUPTIVE APPROACH IN
SCOPE & TECHNOLOGIES
NEDC : New European Driving Cycle Presentation to ERTRAC Annual Conference 2019 12
Source: ICCT, Advancy analysisCHALLENGES
Top 3 geographies accounts for large majority of R&D spend; EU is still the clear
leader but China has entered the race by growing its R&D spending to catch up
Comparison of R&D spending across automotive countries
R&D SPEND FOR AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY COMPARISON BY GEOGRAPHY | BN€, 2007-2017, WORLDWIDE
CAGR
130 ’07-’17 COMMENTS
120
110
100
7%
90 } Top 3 geographical zones
account for more than 85% of
80 R&D spent in 2017
70 c.85% } EU is by far the biggest R&D
spender investing c.€56bn in
60 2017
6% } R&D spent by rest of world
50
grew significantly since 2007,
40 but remains little compared to
top 3
30 } China significant new player in
5%
R&D since 2016
20
21%1
10
RoW2 14%
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
EU JAPAN US CHINA RoW
Notes: 1) CAGR 14-17; 2) SK, Canada, Russia
Source: JRC EU industrial R&D Investment Scoreboard, ACEA, Advancy analysis Presentation to ERTRAC Annual Conference 2019 13CHALLENGES
China is clearly aiming at leading the race in new energy vehicles for mass market
challenging EU
R&D funding by region
PUBLIC R&D ANNUAL FUNDING IN GREEN VEHICLES | € MILLION PER YEAR, 2018
€1,000m
€275m
€100m €100m
IT IS CRITICAL TO ACCELERATE EU PUBLIC FUNDING RESEARCH ACTIVITIES
Source: Advancy analysis Presentation to ERTRAC Annual Conference 2019 14CHALLENGES
To achieve EU targets of 60g/km, introduction of fully electric vehicles (battery, plug-
in hybrid) at large scale is mandatory and should account for more than 30% in 2030
Technology mix to reach CO2 targets
ERTRAC MIX SCENARIO ON FLEET COMPOSITION | % OF EU FLEET
The ERTRAC Mix scenario was
used: it assumes substantially
lower fleet electrification,
halving the shares of BEV of
the partially electrified
scenario
ELECTRIFIED VEHICLES MUST BECOME RAPIDDLY COMPETITIVE IN TERMS OF RANGE, COSTS & CHARGING
Source : Advancy analysis Presentation to ERTRAC Annual Conference 2019 15WAY FORWARD
To consolidate its achievements and deliver additional impact in the future Research
Framework Programme Horizon Europe, EGVI needs to take key actions
Key actions to take to deliver impact
SUPPORT THE ROLL OUT IN SERIAL LIFE IN-VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY TOPICS EXTENDED VISION ON EMISSIONS
ACCELERATE AND SUPPORT THE ROLL PUSH FURTHER IN-VEHICLE MOVE FROM A TANK-TO-WHEEL VIEW
OUT IN SERIAL LIFE OF NEW TECHNOLOGY TOPICS, WITH A SPECIFIC TO CRADLE-TO-GRAVE AND FULL LIFE
TECHNOLOGIES ALREADY DEVELOPED FOCUS ON AFFORDABILITY AND CYCLE THINKING ON ALL EMISSIONS
MANUFACTURING TYPE
INNOVATION PORTFOLIO BALANCE VISION OF TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM EXTEND THE COLLABORATION NETWORK
EXPAND ITS SCOPE OF RESEARCH BY EXTEND ITS MEMBERSHIP AND
DEVELOPING A HOLISTIC VIEW OF THE COLLABORATION TO NEW
FIND THE RIGHT BALANCE BETWEEN
TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, BY STAKEHOLDERS WITHIN AUTOMOTIVE
DISRUPTIVE AND INCREMENTAL
DEEPENING THE LINKS WITH ENERGY AND OUTSIDE SUCH AS ICT, BATTERY
INNOVATION PROJECTS
PRODUCTION AND BY LEVERAGING MANUFACTURERS, INFRASTRUCTURE
DIGITAL TECHNOLOGIES AND ENERGY PRODUCERS AND
DISTRIBUTORS.
Presentation to ERTRAC Annual Conference 2019 1628 – 32 avenue Victor Hugo
75116 Paris, France
Tel: +33 (0) 1 40 60 88 30
www.advancy.com
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