Reverse Migration of Labourers amidst COVID-19 - EPW
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COMMENTARY
Reverse Migration of a 55.5% plunge in the industrial output
(Trading Economics 2020). The predic-
Labourers amidst COVID-19 tions of fiscal deficit by the economists
are 5%–6% of the gross domestic prod-
uct (GDP) in India. The nation faced
enormous economic loss, many innocent
S K Singh, Vibhuti Patel, Aditi chaudhary, Nandlal Mishra lives were lost, and unemployment
surged. According to the Centre for
T
Migrant workers returning he highly contagious severe acute Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) data,
to native places in COVID-19 respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 the prevailing rate of unemployment at
(SARS-CoV-2) has overnight created the time of lockdown increased three-
times were the host for urban
a nightmare worldwide, leading to lock- folds and reached up to 26%. Even after
to rural transmission of cases downs in many countries, which have unlock 1.0 from 8 June, 2020 in pandem-
as the migrant-receiving states victimised the informal sector migrant ic-hit Maharashtra, Delhi, West Bengal,
witnessed over five times increase labourers in most of the developing Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh,
countries like India. With increasing Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh (UP), West Ben-
in the number of districts having
reverse migration of the workers, there gal, Telangana, places which are re-
a more significant concentration was a common perception among various sponsible for 60% of the output of the
of COVID-19 cases from 1 May to state governments that the migrant la- Indian economy and employment of
31 May 2020. There is an urgent bourers are carrying COVID-19 from high 58.4%, are facing massive staff shortage.
contagion zones in metropolitan or Their capacity utilisation is at the time of
need for the skill mapping of the
million-plus cities to low-risk rural areas writing from 20% to 60% only (BQ 2020;
migrant workforce and creating in the process of reverse migration amidst Pullanoor 2020).
social security schemes to protect COVID-19. Given the inherent heteroge-
neity in employment opportunities and Political Economy
them under any socio-economic
wage differentials in rural and urban The villages and smaller towns, espe-
or health emergency.
areas, metropolitan cities and larger cially of the states dominated by agricul-
urban agglomerations have historically ture-based economies are victims of the
emerged as the hub for job opportuni- vagaries of nature, limited job opportu-
ties for daily earners. nities, which are also low paying. Hence,
cities and towns turn up as better alter-
Impact on the Indian Economy natives. As per the Census of India, 2011,
The pandemic-triggered lockdown 1.0 there are 5.6 crore migrant labourers in
(L 1) from 25 March to 14 April 2020, the country. The number of interstate
S K Singh (sksingh31962@gmail.com) teaches lockdown 2.0 (L 2) from 15 April to migrants grew at 55% between Census
mathematical demography and statistics, 3 May, Lockdown 3.0 (L 3) from 4 May 1991 and 2001. The states that have a
International Institute for Population Sciences,
Mumbai. Vibhuti Patel (vibhuti.patel@tiss.edu)
to 17 May 2020 and lockdown 4.0 (L 4) significant portion of their working-age
is with the Advanced Centre for Women’s from 18 May to 31 May 2020 impacted the population engaged in other states, are
Studies, Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Indian economy, governance structure, UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Madhya
Mumbai. Aditi Chaudhary (aditi.chaudhary72 public health system and society at large, Pradesh (MP), Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh,
@gmail.com) and Nandlal Mishra (nandlal.iips adversely. For the months of March, April West Bengal, and the north-eastern states.
@gmail.com) are doctoral students at the IIPS.
and May, the industrial sector experienced The countrywide lockdown to contain
Economic & Political Weekly EPW AUGUST 8, 2020 vol lV nos 32 & 33 25COMMENTARY
Figure 1: Total Number of Shramik Special Trains Originated At the time of entering the Around 4,150 Shramik trains operated
from Different States and Terminated at Home State of Migrant
Workers/Families fourth month of the pan- across the country to ease the reverse
Uttar Pradesh demic in India, there was a migration process of labourers in the
Punjab
397
263
1,520 Bihar
massive demand for health country and the real crisis due to lack of
263 workers and essential sup- transportation (Figure 1). Indian Railways
1,296
plies like protective gear, claims that about 55 lakh labourers used
ventilators, testing kits, etc. these services. Nearly half of the Shramik
Gujarat
979 These differentials are even trains (2,069) originated from Gujarat,
more glaring in rural areas, Maharashtra, and Punjab, while for 90%
Jharkhand
Maharashtra 167 especially in the existing of these trains, the destination was either
Odisha
695
139 situation of the reversal of UP or Bihar. Other major states, which
Madhya Pradesh
labour migrants, which has were destinations of these Shramik
121 been worsening the COVID-19 trains, were Jharkhand, Odisha, MP,
Source: Ministry of Railways, https://sr.indianrailways.gov.in/view_detail. situation in 116 districts of Rajasthan, and West Bengal. Majority of
jsp?lang=0&dcd=9146&id=0,4,268, viewed on 21 June 2020.
the six larger states of the the migrant workers returning from
the spread of COVID-19 pushed the labour country. To limit the spread of this dis- metropolitan or million-plus cities in May
migrants towards a pathetic situation ease through the process of migration were from 116 to the districts of the
marked by homelessness, hunger and and reverse migration of labourers, it is six larger states, namely Bihar (23.6
unforeseen human miseries (SWAN 2020). crucial to strengthen tracking, testing, lakh from 32 districts), UP (17.5 lakh
A recent survey among migrant workers and treating the positive cases even at from 31 districts), MP (10.7 lakh from 24
conducted in the middle of April 2020 the district levels. districts), Rajasthan (12.1 lakh from 22
revealed that 90% of them were not paid districts), Odisha (2.2 lakh from four
their wages in various states, 96% did Intersectionality in Vulnerability districts) and Jharkhand (1.1 lakh from
not get rations from the government The efforts to curtail the chain of trans- three districts).
outlets, and 70% did not get cooked food mission of COVID-19 and minimise its As per the 2011 Census, over 4.1 crore
during lockdown 1.0 (Hindu 2020). socio-economic and health effects on daily wage earners migrated from rural
the community are dismal, as the vul- to urban areas for work; the crisis, and
Global Scenario nerability of people to protection strate- the lockdown compounded their diffi-
The Government of India (GOI) had shut gies is too heterogeneous. There are five culties and diminished their motives to
its borders entirely, put in place restric- dimensions of vulnerability to the mi- stay (Nair and Verma 2020). The unor-
tions on inbound travel and announced grant workers in these unforeseen times. ganised sector and informal workers in
a national lockdown for weeks starting First, a wide range of hardship faced in the organised sector account for 92% of
25 March 2020 for all people except returning led to enhance their vulnera- the total workforce.
those involved in providing essential bility and working as a link between Within the category of informal workers,
services. Railways and interstate bus urban and rural transmission of COV- the largest group is own-account workers
services were suspended (Bajpai 2020; ID-19 cases. Second, loss of job and wag- (32%), followed by informal employees
Economic Times 2020a). To curtail the es, third, overcrowding at the place of in the informal sector (30%) and contri-
spread, physical distancing, with proper origin as a challenge in maintaining buting family workers (18%) (ILO 2017).
hygiene, is the only workable solution social distance, fourth, lack of practising This informalisation is highly pronounced
along with quarantining of suspected hand hygiene, and fifth, disadvanta- in the case of female workers. In India,
cases and timely treatment of confirmed geous for the urban economy. 94% of women are employed in the
cases (Prem et al 2020; Singh et al The nationwide shutdown affected unorganised sector, involved in work
2020). The government announced free lakhs of labourers, daily wage earners, that lacks dignity of labour, social secu-
cereals and cooking gas to 800 million hawkers, domestic workers and petty rity, decent and timely wages, and in
people through direct transfers for traders, self-employed food/fruits/tea some cases, even the right to be called
three months. Besides, `1.7 lakh crore stall owners who were hard hit. a “worker” (Banerjee 2019). Migrant
relief packages aimed at providing a The lockdown affected the livelihoods women workers who are at the bottom
safety net for those hit the hardest by of nearly 4 crore internal migrants. of the informal employment pyramid
the Covid-19 lockdown, insurance cover Around 104 lakh of migrant labourers work as part-time, contract, unregistered,
for front-line medical personnel, has been moved from urban areas to rural areas home-based workers, and most of whom
announced (Economic Times 2020b). It of origin in about 30 days from 1 May to do not have an official status. Citing the
also declared an economic package 31 May 2020 using various modes of underestimation of women in the work-
worth `20 lakh crore to support various transportations, including Shramik trains force, informal sector women’s work in
sectors, including those employing bus, truck, autorickshaw and walking the normal time and multifaceted miser-
skilled, semi-skilled, and unskilled mi- for thousands of kilometres (Economic ies during the pandemic period of the
grant labourers. Times 2020c). Many died in the process. lockdown remain unrecognised. The
26 AUGUST 8, 2020 vol lV nos 32 & 33 EPW Economic & Political WeeklyCOMMENTARY
unemployment varied significantly by Figure 2: COVID-19 CasesFig.
and 1 COVID 19 Cases
Deaths, Indiaand Deaths,May
(1 May–31 India2020)
(1st May-31st May 2020)
gender and poverty, leading to the plight 5,000 2,50,000
of migrant workers from larger cities 6,000 2,00,000
and urban agglomerations to their
4,000
places in the states dominating the agri- 1,50,000
3,000
culture-based economy. Adding to the 1,00,000
precarity of the migrants losing their 2,000
jobs in towns, villages do not have the 1,000
50,000
employment capacity to absorb so many 0 0
13 May
1 May
2 May
3 May
4 May
5 May
6 May
7 May
8 May
9 May
10 May
11 May
12 May
15 May
14 May
16 May
17 May
19 May
May
21 May
May
May
24 May
May
26 May
27 May
28 May
18 May
May
May
31 May
return migrants.
10-May
11-May
12-May
13-May
14-May
15-May
16-May
17-May
18-May
19-May
20-May
21-May
22-May
23-May
24-May
25-May
26-May
27-May
28-May
29-May
30-May
31-May
1-May
2-May
3-May
4-May
5-May
6-May
7-May
8-May
9-May
20
22
25
29
30
23
Increasing vulnerability of migrants
Deaths Cases
at the place of origin in their inability to
follow preventive measures is concerning. Figure 3: Spatial Heterogeneity in the Prevalence of COVID-19 Cases per 1,00,000 Population and Case
Fatality Ratio across 640 Districts in the Country during 1 May and 31 May 2020
The most recent Directorate of Health India ndia
Case plp and case fatality ratio 31 May 2020
Services data shows that nearly half of Case plp and case fatality ratio 1 May 2020
Indian households (49%) face overcrowd- N
N
ing with three or more people per room
used for sleeping (Singh et al 2020).
Such households are in significant num-
bers in rural areas (51%). Highly popu-
lous states have a majority of migrant
families inhabiting slums and other struc-
tures with deplorable sanitary conditions.
Despite all the structural interventions, Legend Legend
people of slums use common drinking cfr 1 May cfr 31 May
5
taining physical distancing with so many case plp 1 May case plp 31 May
returnees is a far-fetched dream. As per 20
Source: COVID-19 official portal, GoI.
(2015–16) data, almost one in seven
households did not have water available contrasting patterns. First, old contain- such districts on 1 May 2020 was limited
and over one in three households did not ment zones in cities like Mumbai, Delhi, to major urban agglomerations like
have soap or detergent at the handwash- Ahmedabad, Chennai, Indore, Jaipur, Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai, Ahmedabad,
ing area, a larger concentration of such Pune, Bhopal, etc, are converting into Indore, Bhopal, Jaipur, etc, which, on
households were in the primarily outmi- hotspots with community transmission, 31 May 2020, spread out across the
grating states like Bihar, Chhattisgarh, where those infected are not able to country from north to south and east to
Jharkhand, Odisha, Rajasthan, UP and identify the source of infection. On the west (Figure 3), which may be primarily
West Bengal (IIPS and ICF 2017). other hand, the migrant workforce re- due to reversal of migrant workers to
With people going back to their vil- ceiving states/districts witnessed a sharp those districts.
lages, the rural parts of the country are spurt in the total number of cases since Several districts in Bihar and UP,
equally vulnerable to the virus. We have the people have started coming back. receiving a majority of migrants workers
a gradual shift of COVID-19 cases from Figure 3 portrays a relative situation returned from high containment zones
urban to rural regions. More than half of different districts in the country in in the states in the western and northern
of the infected cases are the migrant terms of the number of COVID-19 cases parts of the country, have a sudden jump
workers who returned from larger ur- per 1,00,000 population and case fatali- in the number of COVID-19 cases per
ban agglomerations (Barnagarwala and ty ratio. The number of districts with a 1,00,000 population during 30 days. A
Rajput 2020). In Bihar, in May, one in prevalence of COVID-19 cases of 20 or significant increase was observed in
four migrant workers were COVID-19 more per 1,00,000 population (projected Azamgarh (from 0.0 to 2.0), Agra (9.7 to
positive (Sheriff 2020). Odisha had ex- population for 31 March 2020) has 17.2), Basti (0.9 to 6.1), Jaunpur (0.2 to
ponential rise in the number of cases increased from 10 on 1 May 2020, to 54 3.5), Lucknow (4.0 to 7.3), Kushinagar
(Mishra 2020). On 1 May, India had 37,257 on 31 May 2020. This is over a fivefold (0.0 to 2.0), Varanasi (1.4 to 4.4). Simi-
confirmed cases and 1,223 deaths, by increase in clusters of a higher number larly, in about 11 districts of Bihar, which
31 May, the numbers were 1,90,609 and of COVID-19 cases within a short span of are traditionally famous as out-migrating
5,408, respectively (Figure 2). 30 days when migrant men–women, districts, the prevalence of COVID-19
The recent trend in the increasing children and elderly people started cases on 1 May 2020, was less than one
number of COVID-19 cases portrays two reverse migration. The distribution of which increased to around 10 or more
Economic & Political Weekly EPW AUGUST 8, 2020 vol lV nos 32 & 33 27COMMENTARY
per 1,00,000 population. Some of these importance for the rejuvenation of the Economic & Political Weekly, Vol 55, No 22,
30 May, pp 13–17.
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pur, Jehanabad, Khagaria, Madhubani, small- and medium-scale industries, India: What Is Happening? Here’s Everything
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state, Jharkhand, has two districts with to drop out of education and as a reper- ictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-na-
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