Santa Anita Betting Information Picks Panel Brad Free's Expert Analysis - Sunday, October 17, 2021 - Santa Anita Park
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Santa Anita
Sunday, October 17, 2021
• Betting Information
• Picks Panel
• Brad Free's
Expert Analysis
propickSA_USA20211017D ID 1762959 10/16/2021 12:06:42 PM
Santa Anita Betting Information RACE 6 1 Mile. 3YO & Up. California-bred. OC 20k/N1X Purse: $63,000
$1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double / $0.50 Rolling Pick Three
Sunday, October 17, 2021 Probable Post:
3:37 PDT
(6-7-8) / $0.50 Late Pick 4 (6-7-8-9) / $0.10 Superfecta/ $1 Super Hi 5
DRF Picks: 6-4-3 Beyer Edge: 4-1-3
Best Bets: Tony Ann (1ST Race), Sweet Soulmate (4TH Race)
Horses listed in Post Position order Prg.# ML Horse Med/EqChg Jockey Wgt Trainer Last 3 Beyers
1 8/1 Hapi Hapi L Pereira T 122 Azcarate D 68-70-71
2 3/1 Burnin Turf L Baze T C 124 Blacker D 73-83-83
6 Furlongs. Turf. 3YO & Up. F & M. Md Sp Wt 61k 3 10/1 Squalotoro L 7 115 Stute G 73-64-52
RACE 1 $1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double / $0.50 Rolling Pick Three
Herrera D
Probable Post: 4 5/2 El Tigre Terrible L Frey K 124 Miller P 74-80-77
(1-2-3) / $0.50 Early Pick 5 (1-5) / $0.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5 5 5/1 Big Story L Hernandez J 122 Blacker D 57-73-71
1:00 PDT
6 3/1 Betito L Cedillo A 124 Mulhall K 13-67-81
DRF Picks: 2-1-3 Beyer Edge: 2-3-8 Live Longshot: 3
7 6/1 Good Bye Putin L Van Dyke D 124 Gaines C 75-68-70
Prg.# ML Horse Med/EqChg Jockey Wgt Trainer Last 3 Beyers
1 4/1 M Is for Magic L Cedillo A 124 Eurton P 78-66-51 About 6 1/2 Furlongs. Downhill tur. 3YO & Up. California-bred.
2 6/5 Tony Ann L Rispoli U 122 D'Amato P 76-63-x RACE 7 CalFlagHB100k
3 20/1 Dani Mo L Espinoza V 122 Shirreffs J 60-11-x Probable Post: $1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double / $0.50
4 12/1 Stoic Luna ÷ 5 117 Marquez A x-x-x 4:08 PDT Rolling Pick Three (7-8-9) / $0.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5
Pyfer J
5 8/1 Cami Kate ÷ Hernandez J 122 McCarthy M x-x-x
6 4/1 Annaghlasa (IRE) ÷ Frey K 122 D'Amato P x-x-x DRF Picks: 4-7-1 Beyer Edge: 4-1-7
7 20/1 Big News Coming L Ellingwood E
7 115 Yakteen T 48-33-x
Prg.# ML Horse Med/EqChg Jockey Wgt Trainer Last 3 Beyers
8 5/1 Katerini L/b-off Bravo J 122 Glatt M 43-61-58
1 3/1 Give Me the Lute Desormeaux K J124 Mathis A 92-92-88
2 20/1 Ground Attack Maldonado E 119 Headley K 87-84-84
6 Furlongs. 3YO & Up. Clm 10000 Purse: $22,000 3 20/1 Tiger Dad Espinoza V 118 Gaines C 72-68-84
RACE 2 $1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double / $0.50 Rolling Pick Three 4 5/2 North County Guy Rispoli U 122 Baltas R 95-88-92
Probable Post: (2-3-4) / $0.50 Early Pick 4 (2-3-4-5) / $0.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5 5 8/1 Loud Mouth Cedillo A 120 Knapp S 85-84-84
1:30 PDT 6 12/1 Unbridled Ethos Gonzalez R 117 Mullins J 87-81-83
DRF Picks: 6-5-3 Beyer Edge: 4-5-2 7 4/1 Whooping Jay Bravo J 122 Glatt M 88-90-0
8 6/1 Desmond Doss b-on Frey K 121 Miyadi S 81-81-86
Prg.# ML Horse Med/EqChg Jockey Wgt Trainer Last 3 Beyers 9 6/1 Indian Peak Hernandez J 119 Miller P 74-91-81
1 12/1 Bam Bam Again L Franco G 122 Saldana R 37-67-78
2 12/1 Itsthattime L Payeras E 122 Morfin S 60-74-71
6 Furlongs. 3YO & Up. F & M. Md 20000 Purse: $17,000
3 7/2 Horse Greedy L Frey K 122 Miller P 41-66-71 RACE 8 $1 Exacta / $0.50trifecta / $2 Rolling Double / $0.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5
4 6/1 Rinse and Repeat L Herrera D
7 115 Ruiz L 71-67-83 Probable Post:
5 9/5 Alleva L Cedillo A 124 O'Neill D 63-80-70 4:40 PDT DRF Picks: 9-6-1 Beyer Edge: 6-1-9
6 2/1 Bibleman L Rispoli U 122 Hess R Jr 72-46-80
7 10/1 Something Super L Centeno A 124 Saldana R 54-56-79 Prg.# ML Horse Med/EqChg Jockey Wgt Trainer Last 3 Beyers
1 4/1 Candy Runner L Alsagoor A
10 112 Sadler J 0-54-38
1 Mile. Turf. 2YO. Md Sp Wt 61k 2 30/1 Life's Emotions L Franco G 122 Azcarate D 16-38-38
RACE 3 $1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double / $0.50 3 50/1 Mistaka L Lopez C E Jr 122 Sierra J 10-12-28
Probable Post: Rolling Pick Three (3-4-5) / $0.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5 4 3/1 Measureofdevotion L Baze T C 124 Kruljac I 53-16-36
2:01 PDT 6 5/2 Scream and Shout L Cedillo A 124 Yakteen T 58-51-62
DRF Picks: 3-1-6 Beyer Edge: x-x-x Live Longshot: 2 7 20/1 Return to Harbor L Espinoza J
7 115 Brinkerhoff V 21-x-x
8 12/1 Winter Star L Pereira T 122 Palma H 44-9-40
Prg.# ML Horse Med/EqChg Jockey Wgt Trainer Last 3 Beyers 9 2/1 Lunatic L/b-off 7 115 Miller P 52-30-59
Herrera D
1 5/2 Percolate (IRE) b-on Van Dyke D 122 McCarthy M 59-x-x 10 12/1 B'esame Me Mucho L Pyfer J
5 119 Yakteen T 31-x-x
2 12/1 Derecho Dandy Bravo J 122 Sadler J 51-55-x 5 6/1 Lookin At Sweetie SCRATCHED --- SCRATCHED 22-29-x
3 6/5 Picota (GB) Rispoli U 122 D'Amato P 69-x-x
4 15/1 Khantaro d'Oro Hernandez J 122 O'Neill D 57-54-x
5 20/1 Corsica Flavor Franco G 122 Gallagher P 45-x-x 6 Furlongs. Turf. 3YO & Up. F & M. OC 50k/N1X Purse: $63,000
6 4/1 Wellswort (IRE) Gonzalez R 122 D'Amato P x-x-x RACE 9 $1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5
7 12/1 Crypto Munny Pereira T 122 Baltas R x-x-x Probable Post:
8 8/1 Crosby Beach Espinoza V 122 McCarthy M x-x-x 5:12 PDT DRF Picks: 13-2-5 Beyer Edge: 13-10-9
Prg.# ML Horse Med/EqChg Jockey Wgt Trainer Last 3 Beyers
6 Furlongs. 3YO. Fillies. Clm 25000(25-22.5) Purse: $36,000
RACE 4 $1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double / $0.50 Rolling Pick Three (4-5-6) /
1 15/1 Xmas Surprise L Baze T C 120 Powell L 71-76-77
Probable Post: $0.20 Rainbow Pick Six Jackpot Starts (4-9) / $0.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5 2 6/1 Isn't She Lovely L Smith M 120 Mandella R 65-79-77
2:35 PDT 3 15/1 Another Eddie L Gutierrez M 122 Cecil B 46-68-58
DRF Picks: 5-3-7 Beyer Edge: 5-7-4 4 15/1 She's So Nice (IRE) L Gonzalez R 120 D'Amato P 66-x-x
5 6/1 September Secret L Cedillo A 122 Miller P 70-66-54
Prg.# ML Horse Med/EqChg Jockey Wgt Trainer Last 3 Beyers 6 6/1 Miss Carousel L Franco G 124 Freeman E 51-78-72
7 8/1 Anonymously L Rispoli U 122 Maker M 71-79-75
1 12/1 Malibu Mistress L Barnett W A 120 Metz J 50-58-61 8 15/1 Awesome Drive L Bravo J 122 O'Neill D 68-75-80
2 15/1 Saturday Heist L Baze T C 120 Brinkerhoff V 57-24-56 9 4/1 Nu Pi Lambda L Hernandez J 122 Gaines C 79-80-77
3 6/1 Mucha Woman L Cedillo A 120 O'Neill D 55-60-61 10 3/1 Greg's Diva L 5 117 D'Amato P 80-89-82
Pyfer J
4 3/1 Yellow Dress L Rispoli U 120 Hess R Jr 67-51-53
11 30/1 Frose L/b-on Pereira T 122 Papaprodromou 5
G9-73-73
5 5/2 Sweet Soulmate L Van Dyke D 120 Papaprodromou 7
G4-70-64
12 30/1 Derby Quest ÷ Herrera D
7 113 Gomez R 43-66-52
6 6/1 Magical Thought L Hernandez J 120 O'Neill D 63-64-61
7 3/1 Righteously L Gutierrez M 122 Ruiz L 58-70-68 13-AE 5/2 Fantasy Heat L Cedillo A 124 Glatt M 86-83-86
8 10/1 Frisco Frills L 5 117 Belvoir V 56-23-60 14-AE 10/1 Storming Lady L Pyfer J
5 119 Mullins J 77-69-75
Pyfer J
6 Furlongs. Turf. 3YO & Up. Clm 25000(25-22.5)N2L Purse: $28,000
RACE 5 $1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double / $0.50 Rolling Pick Three
Probable Post: (5-6-7) / $0.50 Late Pick 5 (5-9)/ $0.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5
3:06 PDT
DRF Picks: 2-9-8 Beyer Edge: 9-2-3
Prg.# ML Horse Med/EqChg Jockey Wgt Trainer Last 3 Beyers
1 12/1 Starship Chewbacca L Pyfer J
5 119 Zucker H 51-64-39
2 3/1 Ingest L Cedillo A 122 O'Neill D 69-72-65
3 4/1 Crossword L Ellingwood E
7 113 Sadler J 58-73-52
4 12/1 Gordy's Boy L/b-off Herrera D
7 113 Miyadi S 57-56-63
5 6/1 Inch L Baze T C 124 McCarthy M 68-65-56
6 15/1 Hot Pursuit L Gonzalez R 120 Ellis R 60-41-60
7 4/1 Minsky (IRE) L Frey K 122 Glatt M 50-39-x
8 12/1 Chasing Fame L Maldonado E 120 Ortiz M Sr 54-52-45
9 7/2 Ka'nah L Hernandez J 124 O'Neill D 53-77-73
Page 2 of 5Picks Panel
Consensus Totals Based on 5 points for First (7 for Best Bet), 2 for 2nd,1 for 3rd. Best Bet in Bold Type.
Brad Free HANDICAP HERMISTM SWEEPTM CONSENSUS
67-19(45) Kenny Peck Michael Hammersly
Tony Ann Tony Ann Tony Ann Tony Ann Tony Ann 24
1 M Is for Magic Stoic Luna Annaghlasa M Is for Magic M Is for Magic 5
Dani Mo M Is for Magic Dani Mo Annaghlasa Annaghlasa 3
Alleva Horse Greedy Bibleman Alleva Alleva 14
2 Bibleman Alleva Alleva Bibleman Bibleman 10
Horse Greedy Bibleman Rinse and Repeat Horse Greedy Horse Greedy 7
Percolate Wellswort Picota Picota Picota 15
3 Picota Percolate Percolate Percolate Percolate 13
Derecho Dandy Picota Derecho Dandy Wellswort Wellswort 6
Sweet Soulmate Mucha Woman Sweet Soulmate Sweet Soulmate Sweet Soulmate 17
4 Righteously Sweet Soulmate Yellow Dress Yellow Dress Mucha Woman 6
Mucha Woman Righteously Righteously Righteously Righteously 5
Ka'nah Ingest Ingest Ingest Ingest 17
5 Ingest Ka'nah Crossword Ka'nah Ka'nah 10
Starship Chewbacca Inch Ka'nah Crossword Crossword 3
Betito El Tigre Terrible Betito El Tigre Terrible El Tigre Terrible 13
6 El Tigre Terrible Squalotoro Burnin Turf Burnin Turf Betito 12
Hapi Hapi Betito El Tigre Terrible Betito Burnin Turf 4
North County Guy North County Guy Whooping Jay North County Guy North County Guy 16
7 Give Me the Lute Whooping Jay Unbridled Ethos Give Me the Lute Whooping Jay 9
Whooping Jay Tiger Dad North County Guy Whooping Jay Give Me the Lute 4
Lunatic Scream and Shout Scream and Shout Lunatic Lunatic 13
8 Candy Runner Lunatic Measureofdevotion Scream and Shout Scream and Shout 13
Scream and Shout Candy Runner Lunatic Measureofdevotion Candy Runner 3
Fantasy Heat Isn't She Lovely September Secret Fantasy Heat Fantasy Heat 10
9 Greg's Diva Xmas Surprise Nu Pi Lambda Greg's Diva Greg's Diva 6
Nu Pi Lambda Greg's Diva Greg's Diva Nu Pi Lambda Isn't She Lovely 5
Page 3 of 5Expert Analysis
By Brad Free
BEST BET: Percolate (3rd race)
First Race
1. Tony Ann 2. M Is for Magic 3. Dani Mo
Based on an improved second start, third by less than a length, ~TONY ANN^ is the one to beat in this maiden turf sprint. 'ANN saved ground forwardly placed, waited for room into
the lane, angled off the fence and finished well. She did steady late between rivals, but would have finished third anyway. Good effort, the turf filly is sitting on a win stretching from
five furlongs at Del Mar to six furlongs at Santa Anita. ~M IS FOR MAGIC^ is a nine-start maiden switching surfaces after earning a career-high figure finishing second on dirt. Her
best previous race was a turf sprint last fall in Kentucky, so the surface change is no big deal. This is just her third start following a layoff; obvious contender. ~DANI MO^ broke
slowly again, but finished well for seventh in the same race the top choice exits. DANI MO ran better than her line looks. Problem is, she broke slowly both starts. First-time starter
STOIC LUNA trains as if she might have some speed.
Second Race
1. Alleva 2. Bibleman 3. Horse Greedy
This $10k claiming sprint is filled with unreliable droppers. ~ALLEVA^ could not take the heat last out in a strong $25k claiming starter at Los Alamitos; he pressed and cracked.
But his $20k claiming N3L win two back might be good enough, he has a versatile style that allows him to either set the pace or rally from slightly off. ~BIBLEMAN^ squandered
a two-length lead at the furlong pole last out, and finished third. Like many in this field, his form is going the wrong way. Claimed for $32k two back, down to $16k last out, now in
for $10k. ~HORSE GREEDY^ returns at the bottom following a seven-month layoff. A six-time winner who was a bona fide allowance sprinter not long ago, he runs for a stable that
does well with dirt-sprint comebackers. Peter Miller won with 3 of his last 6 returning from a layoff of six months or more. ITSTHATTIME has speed, is a three-time winner at Santa
Anita, and a threat up front.
Third Race
1. Percolate 2. Picota 3. Derecho Dandy
~PERCOLATE^ ran well in his U.S. debut, runner-up in a turf mile for maiden 2yos similar to this. He can upset likely favorite ~PICOTA^, who finished third in a stakes race in his
U.S. debut. PERCOLATE ran well both starts, second in a roughly run race in summer in England, second again at DMR while chasing the wire-to-wire winner. With time between
starts, blinkers on, the lightly raced colt should deliver. However, PICOTA earned a higher figure against better company when third in a $200k stake. In that race, PICOTA finished
far in front of the Il Capitano, who defeated to the top choice in the maiden race. The point is, one could argue PICOTA is more qualified to win this maiden race. The challenge
is wheeling back in two weeks. Might not make a difference in what looks like a two-horse race. ~DERECHO DANDY^ switches to turf after splitting the field in a dirt route that
already produced at least three next-out maiden winners.
Fourth Race
1. Sweet Soulmate 2. Righteously 3. Mucha Woman
~SWEET SOULMATE^ should be tough to beat at low odds in this $25k claiming sprint for 3yo fillies. Her recent starts are faster than her rivals, she drops from claiming-caliber
sprints vs. older into an age-restricted claiming sprint. The knock on the three-time winner is her odds may be short. ~RIGHTEOUSLY^ won five of her six previous starts before the
LRC fall meet, but was then overmatched twice vs. older Cal-bred allowance foes. She finished third, and next-to-last. A six-time winner, the question is whether she can return to
form against this softer group, or if her disappointing effort last out should be taken at face value. ~MUCHA WOMAN^ also drops. A three-time winner with more than six weeks
between starts, she is likely to fire her best shot. Still might need better than that to beat the top choice.
Fifth Race
1. Ka'nah 2. Ingest 3. Starship Chewbacca
Notwithstanding an off-the-board finish at odds-on last out, ~KA'NAH^ gets the call running back at the same 25k claiming N2L level. The differences are he moves to turf and goes
first off the claim by Doug O'Neil, who wheels him back in eight days. The gelding's previous starts are fast enough for this level, and he can turf. O'Neill also entered ~INGEST^,
who drops to N2L claiming for the first time after an okay fourth vs. starter allowance types. The gelding's lone win was on the SA turf course, albeit a route. ~STARSHIP
CHEWBACCA^ looms an upset candidate. He has run fast enough for this class, although his turf form is uncertain. CROSSWORD fits off his runner-up finish two starts back vs.
claiming 3yos. Trainer John Sadler and apprentice Emily Ellingwood teamed to go 4-for-6 since early last month.
Sixth Race
1. Betito 2. El Tigre Terrible 3. Hapi Hapi
Only seven starters, but this Cal-bred N1X dirt mile is deep. ~BETITO^ gets the call returning to his favorite track. All three wins were on the SA main including a win at this level
in June. Entered for the optional $20k claim tag first start in two months, he faces a difficult pace scenario. BETITO is a front-runner, so are three others to his inside. Tepid choice.
~EL TIGRE TERRIBLE^, a two-time sprint stakes winner plunging to $20k claiming, is arguably the "best horse." But the drop is troublesome, and he has been a sprinter throughout
his career. This is only his second route; he encountered trouble his previous two-turn try. The class drop probably makes sense, because his two starts following a layoff were
ordinary. ~HAPI HAPI^ will rally late in a race that could set up for his closing style. SQUALOTORO stretches out and adds speed, along with front-runner BURNIN TURF and
stretch-out BIG STORY.
Seventh Race
1. North County Guy 2. Give Me the Lute 3. Whooping Jay
propickSA_USA20211017D ID 1762959 10/16/2021 12:06:42 PM
Although veteran stakes winner ~NORTH COUNTY GUY^ has been a distance specialist most of his career, he won a SA downhill turf sprint by more than five lengths in October
2018. He likes this course. The consistent gelding dominated an allowance turf route two months ago, and trained in sharp fashion for a cutback in distance to six and a half on the
Page 4 of 5hill. He can only win if he catches ~GIVE ME THE LUTE^. The latter is all speed, his G3 runner-up last out was validated when winner Lieutenant Dan returned to win another
G3. Front-runner 'LUTE is the one to catch. ~WHOOPING JAY^ did not have a great trip last out, third in a N2X/optional $80k claiming race. He was claimed by Mark Glatt, who
won this stakes race in 2019 with first-off-the-claim Castle. WHOOPING JAY has a versatile pressing style that should lead to a good trip positioned just off the pace. Front-runner
TIGER DAD will keep the pace honest; DESMOND DOSS is a multiple stakes winner who can run long or short, dirt or turf. Top to bottom, this is good field of Cal-breds.
Eighth Race
1. Lunatic 2. Candy Runner 3. Scream and Shout
Comebacker ~LUNATIC^ returns from an eight-month layoff while dropping to the maiden-20 bottom level for the first time. Miller-trained comebackers tend to fire. ~CANDY
RUNNER^ is second start back from a layoff, also dropping in class after finishing last of five in a maiden-40 comeback. Ten-pound weight break under the new apprentice.
~SCREAM AND SHOUT^ adds speed, but her stamina is suspect.
Ninth Race
1. Fantasy Heat 2. Greg's Diva 3. Nu Pi Lambda
Also-eligible ~FANTASY HEAT^ would be tough in this N1X/optional claiming turf sprint if she draws win. She won a N2X/optional claiming sprint last out, and though six and
one-half furlongs might be a stretch, the 4-for-11 mare projects for a cozy trip just off the speed. ~GREG'S DIVA^ is all speed, first start since February. She runs well fresh, finished
one-two six of her seven starts, gets a five-pound apprentice allowance, and could steal the race. ~NU PI LAMBDA^ finished in the money, without a win, seven consecutive starts at
this N1X level. She is always in the thick of it. ISN'T SHE LOVELY returns to her favorite turf course for her first in two months. She is only Sunday mount for jockey Mike Smith.
Page 5 of 5You can also read
