September 13 2021 Daily Forex Analysis - Finveo

September 13 2021
Daily Forex Analysis

Daily News
•   While China's new move negatively affected the pricing in the Asia Pacific markets, global market actors focused on the data to be announced from the USA.
    With the clarification of China's plan to split Ant Group, Asia Pacific markets started the week with strong sales. A decrease of nearly 2 % was observed in the
    Hong Kong Hang Seng index, which is dominated by Chinese technology giants. More moderate losses were displayed in Japan's Topix and South Korea's Kospi.
    U.S futures are rising ahead of key data of the week such as the CPI to be announced on Tuesday and retail sales to be announced on Thursday. Futures on the
    S&P 500, which closed Friday with a 0.7 % loss and recorded the hardest weekly loss since June with 1.7 %, are on the rise. Many developing countries'
    currencies are losing against the dollar. The South Korean Won leads the losses with 0.5 %. Oil rises as Hurricane Ida hits U.S inventory. The October U.S crude
    oil futures contract rose 0.4 % to $70, while the November Brent contract rose by the same rate to exceed $73.

•   European Central Bank (ECB) officials may comment on the decision to reduce bond purchases. In the euro area, ECB senior economist Philip Lane and
    Governor of the Bank of Finland Olli Rehn will speak. Investors await further comments on the decision to begin reducing bond purchases in the fourth quarter.
    This decision is a small first step towards starting to reduce the ECB's emergency stimulus to support the economy during the pandemic. ECB President
    Christine Lagarde emphasized that this decision does not mean that the reduction has begun. China's data, on the other hand, may indicate the pace of
    recovery in the country's economy. China will release data on industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment on Wednesday, and the economic
    impact of the wave of cases seen in August when Beijing partially closed the world's third most active container port and imposed new restrictions will be seen.
    Although the latest waves of cases have been largely under control, the Chinese economy is still facing negative developments.

•   The Dow closed last week down nearly 2.2%, recording its second consecutive losing week. The S&P 500 tumbled around 1.7% week on week, while the
    NASDAQ Composite fell 1.6%. The increase in Delta variant cases appears to have peaked in Florida and other states, but cases and hospitalizations are still
    increasing in Kentucky, North Carolina, and parts of the Midwest, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal. The Fed enters the traditional ban period
    ahead of its September policy meeting. U.S investors' eyes will be on inflation figures for August this week. Amid concerns about rising inflation, the date when
    central banks choose to reduce economic stimulus is the key factor influencing market sentiment. The CPI data, which will be released on Tuesday, will be the
    most striking report in the economic calendar, amid the ongoing debate on whether the increase in inflation will weaken as the imbalance between supply and
    demand, which has led to an increase in prices in recent months, finally begins to decrease.

• EUR/USD is trading under 1.18, the lowest since late August as a cautious market mood boosts the safe-haven dollar.

EUR/USD     Worries about rising U.S inflation, the Fed's tapering intentions and German elections are pushing the pair lower. The
            Frankfurt-based institution announced the slowing down the pace of its bond-buying scheme but insisted it is only
            "recalibrating" its tools. The division within the ECB took the sting out of a move that would have been considered a hawkish
            move. On the other side of the pond, investors are anxiously awaiting Tuesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures. Last
            Friday's producer price release showed inflation remains elevated. Federal Reserve officials are unlikely to taper their $120
            billion/month bond-buying scheme next week, but tightening in the following meeting remains in play. Investors would
            prefer the Fed to continue supporting the economy, especially after the latest weak jobs report.

                                                                                       •   Resistance: 1,1812– 1,1850- 1,1885
                                                                                       •   Support: 1,1782– 1,1752 - 1,1725

• GBP/USD is trading closer to 1.38, pressured by the dollar-positive risk-averse mood. The pound is on the back foot amid
            high UK covid cases and uncertainty about the government's next moves. The sterling managed to gain some ground
GBP/USD     following the optimism about the Bank of England interest rate hike decision sooner than expected in the first half of 2022.
            The gains were short-lived on the Brexit worries and dismal economic data. Furthermore, the UK’s latest GDP figures
            revealed that the domestic economic growth remained under pressure, with growth slowing to just 0.1% in July. As for now,
            investors turn their attention to the U.S Consumer Inflation Expectations to trade fresh trading impetus.

                                                                                       •   Resistance: 1,3865 – 1,3895 - 1,3950
                                                                                       •   Support:    1,3800 – 1,3770 - 1,3730

• Gold investors focused on consumer inflation data to be released this week, which could hint at a reduction in asset

XAU/USD     purchases, after last week’s U.S producer inflation beat expectations. Gold is following a flat course with expectations that
            the Fed may begin to reduce asset purchases sooner after producer inflation increased faster than expected in the U.S.
            According to data from the U.S Department of Labor, PPI increased by 0.7 % on a monthly basis in August, while PPI recorded
            the largest annual increase since 2010 with 8.3 %. The median expectation of economists surveyed was 0.6 % monthly and
            8.2 %annual increase. After falling below its 50-day moving average last week, ounce of gold, which was traded in a narrow
            price range, closed the week with losses for the first time in 4 weeks. Ounce of gold, which remained flat with concerns
            before consumer inflation data, started the new week at around $1,791.

                                                                                        •   Resistance: 1801 $ - 1812 $ - 1823 $
                                                                                        •   Support:    1783 $ - 1773 $ - 1761 $

• Oil rose towards $70 a barrel as investors focused on the slow production recovery in the Gulf of Mexico after Hurricane Ida.

BRENTOIL     West Texas Oil rose 0.4 % after climbing 2.3 % in the New York market on Friday. Although it has been two weeks since
             Hurricane Ida hit the Gulf of Mexico, one of the most important oil production centers, half of the production in the region
             has not yet resumed. According to Goldman Sachs, the production shortage caused by the hurricane provided an unusual
             upside momentum for the markets. Stating that there may be a decrease of nearly 30 million barrels in stocks with the effect
             of the hurricane, Goldman Sachs stated that oil will lead the commodity rally in the next quarter. Iran Atomic Energy Agency
             President Mohammad Islami said that experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency can replace the memory cards
             of security cameras in nuclear facilities. Brent oil rose 0.4 % to $73.18 a barrel on the London ICE Futures Europe market.

                                                                                        •   Resistance: 73,85 $ - 74,75 $ - 75,62 $
                                                                                        •   Support: 72,53 $ - 71,69 $ - 70,67 $

• U.S. stock index futures were in positive territory during early morning trading on Monday as the S&P 500 comes off its
           longest daily losing streak since February. Futures contracts tied to Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 153 points. S&P 500
S&P500     futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both traded in positive territory. All three futures contracts were muted earlier as investor
           sentiment may have taken a hit from heavy losses seen in Asia trading on Monday, where Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index
           dropped about 2% amid regulatory fears surrounding sectors such as financial technology and electric vehicles. All three
           major averages finished lower on Friday, with the Dow and S&P posting a fifth straight day of losses, while the Nasdaq
           Composite registered its third consecutive negative session. For the week, the Dow and S&P dipped 2.15% and 1.69%,
           respectively, which was each average’s worst weekly performance since June. The tech-heavy Nasdaq posted its worst week
           since July, sliding 1.61%.
                                                                                         •   Resistance: 4,479 – 4,497 – 4,519
                                                                                         •   Support: 4,444 – 4,425 – 4,408

Daily Stock News
• Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL ) will release its fiscal 2022 first quarter results on Monday, September 13, after the market close. Analysts expect earnings of
  $0.97 per share with sales of $9.76 billion. Shares of the Austin, Texas-based tech giant have strengthened this year, thanks to improved demand for the
  company's cloud computing services after sales have stagnated for years. Shares are up 38% this year, closing Friday at $89.68. With the world's second-largest
  software maker focusing on cloud computing to drive revenue growth , it's no surprise that this segment strengthens the company's growth potential. Trying to
  compete with other tech giants such as Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN ) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT ), which are ahead of itself in cloud computing , ORCL plans
  to spend more in this area. (Positive)
• Apple Inc.(NASDAQ: AAPL ) , which was ordered by a federal judge to change its App Store operations on Friday after being accused of 'monopolistic' apps ,
  could remain under pressure over the next week. The stock fell 3.3% after the decision. This was the iPhone maker's biggest drop since May 4, cutting the
  company's market value by nearly $85 billion. Shares closed Friday at $148.97. A federal judge has issued a ruling requested by Epic Games, the maker of the
  Fortnite game, that allows game developers to shift consumers to payment methods for mobile apps outside of the App Store. The judge also ordered Epic
  Games to pay Apple for damage caused by the breach of contract. "The high-profile lawsuit highlights a broader concern about online platforms and digital
  commerce. Regulators and lawmakers in Washington, Brussels and elsewhere aim to curb the tech giants," the Wall Street Journal reported. (Negative)
• Zoom Video Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: ZM ) will hold a meeting with financial analysts on Monday as signs of its growth during the pandemic are coming
  to an end as schools and workplaces reopen. Stocks came under pressure after the San Jose, California-based company's management offered its sales forecast
  for the current quarter on August 30 below what some analysts had predicted. Shares, which gained fivefold value in 2020 with the explosion in the use of the
  communication platform during the epidemic period, fell more than 10% this year and closed Friday at $301.50. But the company's tremendous growth during
  the pandemic is slowing down sooner than most analysts predict. Zoom's revenues rose 369% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2020, 191% in the first quarter of
  2021, and 54% in the three months ended July 31. Forecasts offered by the company indicate that sales could only increase 15% in the fiscal fourth
  quarter.(Negative)

Currency       Last            Daily Change (%)               Weekly Change (%)    YTD Change (%)
EURUSD          1,179                  -0,20                          -0,20               -3,49
GBPUSD         1,3818                  -0,15                          -0,15               1,08
USDJPY         110,02                  -0,06                          -0,06               -6,14
USDCHF         0,9195                  -0,20                          -0,20               -3,72
EURGBP         0,85324                  0,07                           0,07               4,75

INDEX FUTURE    Last             Daily Change (%)                Weekly Change (%)   YTD Change (%)
SPA INDEX       4449                   -0,76                            0,00             19,71
GXA INDEX      15569                   -0,21                           -0,21             13,34
DMA INDEX      34506                    0,03                            0,03             14,12

Commodities     Last             Daily Change (%)                Weekly Change (%)   YTD Change (%)
GC1 Comdty    1790,5                    0,03                           0,03               -5,52
XAUUSD Curncy 1791,37                   0,22                           0,22               -5,63
CLA Comdty     69,97                    0,36                           0,36              45,74
CO1 Comdty     73,17                    0,34                           0,34              41,25

                         Time        Cur.                       Event
                         11:00       EUR               ECB Schanabel's Speaks
                         13:00       USD                OPEC Monthly Report
                         15:30       EUR            ECB President Lagarde's Speaks
                         20:00       USD               Federal Budget Balance