State of the Union 2019: Dial meter research among the Rising American Electorate, white working class & white college women - Democracy Corps
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State of the Union 2019:
Dial meter research among the Rising American
Electorate, white working class & white college women
February 6, 2019
0
Methodology
On behalf of the Voter Participation Center and WVWVAF, Democracy Corps
conducted online dial meter research during President Trump’s State of the Union
address among 206 registered voters nationally:
• 35 African Americans
• 37 Latinos
• 29 white millennials
• 33 white unmarried women
• 33 white working class women
• 39 white college women
To ensure each line was as representative as possible, these lines were
individually recruited.
Surveys were administered before and after the live dial meter session.
Where compared to 2018 results, the total is among the lines for African
Americans, Latinos, white millennials and white unmarried women only.
*This research is qualitative and results are not statistically projectable
onto a larger population.*
1
The key groups
AFRICAN AMERICANS
African Americans, particularly African American women, gave Democrats near universal
support and delivered their highest midterm vote share ever. Will the core of the coalition that
produced the 2018 blue wave maintain their outrage with President Trump’s racism, corruption,
and assaults on the social safety net?
LATINOS
Latinos helped deliver many of the districts and states that turned blue in 2018, nevertheless, their
performance in 2018 and 2016 was underwhelming. With critical states like Florida and Arizona
on the line, we must better understand how they are responding to Trump’s worldview and
agenda on issues from immigration and the wall to gender roles and economic security.
WHITE MILLENNIALS
Powered by the women, millennials increased their turnout and gave Democrats improved
margins in 2018, but white millennials barely broke for Democrats in the battleground and their
turnout seriously lagged other generations. We must not be satisfied. What parts of Trump’s
agenda will motivate white millennials to resist when he is on the ballot?
WHITE UNMARRIED WOMEN
After a disappointing +2 margin for Clinton, white unmarried women gave Democrats a +12
margin in 2018 and were already voting 2-to-1 for the Democrat in 2020 in our recent poll. Plus,
they outnumber the white college women that the media was fixed on in 2018! Will the dials
confirm white unmarried women are now a core base group?
WHITE WORKING CLASS WOMEN
White working class women may present Democrats the greatest opportunity. In 2018, they
shifted as much as white college women in their vote (+13) but were more impactful,
outnumbering them 25 to 15 percent. They already give the Democrat a +3 lead over Trump in
2020. Will the dials confirm the playing field has changed?
2
The context for the SOTU – RAE tuning in is more certain to vote than ever before
% ALMOST CERTAIN TO VOTE IN 2018 vs. 2020
2018 2019
+26 +17 +18 +24
97 97 93 91
80 75
71 67
African Americans Latinos White millennials White unmarried
women
3
Trump made his biggest gains on health care
TRUMP ATTRIBUTES – HANDLING POLICY ISSUES
2018 2019
% DESCRIBES WELL
Pre Post SHIFT Pre Post SHIFT
Will make health care more affordable 25 37 +12 23 46 +23
Good for women 24 29 +5 20 40 +20
Will create jobs 46 57 +11 39 57 +18
Making trade agreements fairer to the US n/a n/a n/a 34 56 +22
Has realistic solutions to country's problems 29 42 +13 25 43 +18
Presidential 23 40 +17 20 34 +14
Right approach to immigration 28 40 +12 28 41 +13
Right approach to border security n/a n/a n/a 31 40 +9
Compared to 2018 results, the total is among the lines for African
4
Americans, Latinos, white millennials and white unmarried women only.
Threats of border “crisis” & caravans backfire, praising legal immigration rewarded
As we speak, large, organized asking you to defend our very reduced jobs, lower
caravans are on the march to the US. dangerous southern border wages, overburdened
schools, hospitals so
crowded you can’t
get in, increased
crime, & a depleted
social safety net.
..an urgent national crisis. Congress has 10
days left to pass a bill that will fund our
Legal immigrants enrich our nation and
government, protect our homeland & secure ..another
strengthen our society in countless ways.
our very dangerous southern border. 3,750 troops..
Republicans & Democrats must join forces again to confront an urgent national crisis. Congress has 10 days left to pass a bill that will fund our government, protect
our homeland, and secure our very dangerous southern border. Now is the time for Congress to show the world that America is committed to ending illegal
immigration and putting the ruthless coyotes, cartels, drug dealers, and human traffickers out of business. As we speak, large, organized caravans are on the
march to the US. [..] I have ordered another 3,750 troops to our southern border to prepare for the tremendous onslaught. [..] The lawless state of our southern
border is a threat to the safety, security & financial well-being of all America. We have a moral duty to create an immigration system that protects the lives & jobs of
our citizens. This includes our obligation to the millions of immigrants living here today, who followed the rules & respected our laws. Legal immigrants enrich our
nation & strengthen our society in countless ways. I want people to come into our country, in the largest numbers ever, but they have to come in legally. Tonight, I
am asking you to defend our very dangerous southern border out of love and devotion to our fellow citizens and to our country. [..] Wealthy politicians and donors
push for open borders while living their lives behind walls and gates and guards. Meanwhile, working class Americans are left to pay the price for mass illegal
immigration -- reduced jobs, lower wages, overburdened schools, hospitals that are so crowded you can’t get in, increased crime, & a depleted social safety net.
5
Characterizing the border as in crisis and every mention of the wall drives voters away
..proposal to end the crisis ..and plans for a new walls work
on the Southern Border. physical barrier, or wall.. and walls
save lives
I will never abolish our
heroes from ICE
We will always support the brave men and women of law enforcement and I pledge to you tonight that I will never abolish
our heroes from ICE. Thank you. My administration has sent to Congress a commonsense proposal to end the crisis on the
Southern Border. It includes humanitarian assistance, more law enforcement, drug detection at our ports, closing loopholes
that enable child smuggling, and plans for a new physical barrier, or wall, to secure the vast areas between our ports of
entry. In the past, most of the people in this room voted for a wall. But the proper wall was never built. I will get it built.
This is a smart, strategic, see-through steel barrier, not just a simple concrete wall. It will be deployed in the areas
identified by border agents as having the greatest need, and these agents will tell you, where walls go up, illegal crossings
go way way down. [..] Simply put, walls work and walls save lives.
6
Alice & First Step Act produce some high points with African Americans & millennials
My administration
worked closely
Alice’s story underscores the with members of
disparities and unfairness that can I commuted Now, Matthew [Charles]
both parties to is the very first person to
exist in criminal sentencing and the Alice sign the First Step
need to remedy this total injustice. [Johnson]’s be released from prison
Act into law. under the First Step Act
sentence.
Last year, I heard through friends the story of Alice Johnson. [..] Alice’s story underscores the disparities and unfairness that can exist in criminal
sentencing — and the need to remedy this total injustice. [..] In June, I commuted Alice’s sentence — when I saw Alice's beautiful family greet
her at the prison gates, hugging and kissing and crying and laughing, I knew I did something right. Alice is here with us tonight and she is a terrific
woman. [..] Inspired by stories like Alice’s, my administration worked closely with members of both parties to sign the First Step Act into law.
Big deal, it’s a big deal. This legislation reformed sentencing laws that have wrongly and disproportionately harmed the African-American
community. The First Step Act gives non-violent offenders the chance to re-enter society as productive, law-abiding citizens. Now, states
across the country are following our lead. America is a nation that believes in redemption. We are also joined tonight by Matthew Charles from
Tennessee. [..] Now, Matthew is the very first person to be released from prison under the First Step Act. Matthew please. Thank you Matthew.
7
Dial high for preexisting protections & lower health costs, doubt drug cost decline claims
We should also require drug companies, insurance
companies & hospitals to disclose real prices to
foster competition & bring costs way down.
lower the cost of healthcare
& to protect patients with
pre-existing conditions. in 2018 drug It’s unacceptable that
prices experienced Americans pay vastly more
their single largest than people in other countries
decline in 46 yrs. for the exact same drugs.
The next major priority for me, and for all of us, should be to lower the cost of healthcare and prescription drugs & to
protect patients with pre-existing conditions. Already, as a result of my administration’s efforts, in 2018 drug prices
experienced their single largest decline in 46 years. But we must do more. It’s unacceptable that Americans pay vastly
more than people in other countries for the exact same drugs, often made in the exact same place. This is wrong, this is
unfair, & together we will stop it & we will stop it fast. I am asking Congress to pass legislation that finally takes on the
problem of global freeloading & delivers fairness and price transparency for American patients. We should also require
drug companies, insurance companies & hospitals to disclose real prices to foster competition & bring costs way down.
8
Recognition of women in the workplace, especially in Congress, a warm fuzzy for all
women, who have filled 58 percent All Americans can be proud CAMERA SHOWS ALL
MEMBERS STANDING &
of the newly created jobs last year that we have more women in
CHEERING, CHANTING USA
the workforce than ever before.
..we also have
more women
serving in
Congress
CAMERA SHOWS WOMEN than at any
STANDING & CHEERING time before.
As we work to defend our people's safety, we must also ensure our economic resurgence continues at a rapid pace. No one
has benefited more from our thriving economy than women, who have filled 58 percent of the newly created jobs last year.
[Camera shows women in Congress in white standing & cheering] You weren’t supposed to do that. Thank you very much.
All Americans can be proud that we have more women in the workforce than ever before. [Camera shows more standing
& cheering for women in congress] Don’t sit yet, you’re going to like this. And exactly one century after Congress passed the
constitutional amendment giving women the right to vote, we also have more women serving in Congress than at any time
before. [Camera shows all members hooraying, standing, chanting USA!] That’s great. Really great. And congratulations.
9Paid family leave send dials high, lead by white unmarried women & millennials
..include in my budget a plan for
..the time has come to pass school
nationwide paid family leave..
choice for America's children.
To help support working parents, the time has come to pass school
choice for America's children. I am also proud to be the first President
to include in my budget a plan for nationwide paid family leave so that
every new parent has the chance to bond with their newborn child.
10Tax cut & child tax credit coupling paused the dials, but big divergence on ACA mandate
We eliminated the very unpopular
Obamacare individual mandate penalty.
We passed a massive tax cut for working
families and doubled the child tax credit.
We passed a massive tax cut for working families and doubled the child tax credit. We
virtually ended the estate tax, or death tax as it has been often called, on small
businesses, ranches, and family farms. We eliminated the very unpopular Obamacare
individual mandate penalty — and to give critically ill patients access to life-saving
cures, we passed, very importantly, “Right to Try.”
11African Americans diverge on wages & even more so on jobs and minority employment
problems neglected by African American, Hispanic American, and Asian American
leaders of both parties unemployment have all reached their lowest levels ever
over many decades
Wages are rising
added 600,000 new at the fastest pace Unemployment has reached the
manufacturing jobs in decades lowest rate in over half a century
..my administration has moved with a urgency and historic speed to confront problems neglected by leaders of both parties over
many decades. In just over two years since the election, we have launched an unprecedented economic boom [..] We have
created 5.3 million new jobs, and importantly, added 600,000 new manufacturing jobs, something which almost everyone said
was impossible to do, but the fact is, we are just getting started. Wages are rising at the fastest pace in decades, and growing
for blue-collar workers, who I promise to fight for. [..] Nearly 5 million Americans have been lifted off food stamps. The U.S.
Economy is growing almost twice as fast today as when I took office, and we are considered far and away the hottest economy
anywhere in the world. [..] Unemployment has reached the lowest rate in over half a century. African American, Hispanic
American, and Asian American unemployment have all reached their lowest levels ever recorded.
12All dislike slamming trade agreements like NAFTA, groups diverge on China & tariffs
US Reciprocal Trade Act, so ..we can
reversing decades of the catastrophe charge them the exact same tariff
calamitous trade policies known as NAFTA
Making it clear to China..the theft “Made in ..unite for a great
..and protect
of American jobs & wealth has the USA” rebuilding of America’s
American jobs
come to an end.. tariffs on $250 crumbling infrastructure.
billion dollars of Chinese goods.
To build on our incredible economic success, one priority is paramount — reversing decades of calamitous trade policies. So bad. We are now making it clear to China
that after years of targeting our industries, and stealing our intellectual property, the theft of American jobs and wealth has come to an end. Therefore, we recently
imposed tariffs on $250 billion dollars of Chinese goods [..] I blame our leaders and representatives for allowing this travesty to happen. [..] and we are now working
on a new trade deal with China. But it must include real, structural change to end unfair trade practices, reduce our chronic trade deficit, and protect American jobs.
Another historic trade blunder was the catastrophe known as NAFTA. [..] For years, politicians promised them they would negotiate for a better deal. But no one
ever tried, until now. Our new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the USMCA., will replace NAFTA and deliver for American workers like they haven’t had delivered
to in a long time. I hope you can pass the USMCA. into law, so we can bring back our manufacturing jobs in even greater numbers, expanding American
agriculture, protecting intellectual property, and ensuring that more cars are proudly stamped with the four beautiful words: Made in the USA. Tonight, I am also
asking you to pass the United States Reciprocal Trade Act, so that if another country places an unfair tariff on an American product, we can charge them the exact
same tariff on the exact same product that they sell to us. Both parties should be able to unite for a great rebuilding of America’s crumbling infrastructure.
13Calls to end ‘partisan’ investigations seen as political and lines drop
..politics or ridiculous partisan
investigations.
If there is going to
be peace and
legislation, there
cannot be war and
investigation
An economic miracle is taking place in the United States, and the only
thing that can stop it are foolish wars, politics or ridiculous partisan
investigations. If there is going to be peace and legislation, there
cannot be war and investigation. It just doesn’t work that way!
14Clearly reject his election stopped war with North Korean, apathetic about new meeting
If I had not been elected president Chairman Kim and I
of the United States, we would will meet again on
right now, in my opinion, be in a February 27th and
major war with North Korea 28th in Vietnam.
Our hostages have come home…
As part of a bold new diplomacy, we continue our historic push for peace on the Korean
Peninsula. Our hostages have come home, nuclear testing has stopped, and there has not
been a missile launch in more than 15 months. If I had not been elected president of the
United States, we would right now, in my opinion, be in a major war with North Korea. Much
work remains to be done, but my relationship with Kim Jong-un is a good one. Chairman Kim and
I will meet again on February 27th and 28th in Vietnam.
15Socialism only impactful with white working class women when contrasted with liberty
We are alarmed by new calls to
adopt socialism in our country.
America will never be a
socialist country.
founded on liberty & independence…We are born free,
and we will stay free.
Here, in the United States, we are alarmed by new calls to adopt socialism in
our country. America was founded on liberty and independence, not
government coercion, domination, and control. We are born free, and we will
stay free. Tonight, we renew our resolve that America will never be a socialist
country.
16Trump’s approval shift is as weak as 2017, not great for first term president!
JOB APPROVAL (% APPROVE)
Pre-SOTU Post-SOTU
+14 +16 +26 +8 +9 +12 +9 +12
82
68
60 58 59
56
50 50 51
44
39 38 38
30 29 26
2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2017 2018 2019
Compared to 2018 results, the total is among the lines for African
Americans, Latinos, white millennials and white unmarried women only. 172-to-1 want a check on Trump post-SOTU, only millennials reject this idea
CHECK WORK w CHECK-
% LOOKING FOR CANDIDATE
TRUMP TRUMP WORK
TOTAL 64 36 +28
African Americans 74 26 +48
Latinos 68 32 +36
White Millennials 46 54 -8
White Unmarried Women 73 27 +45
White College Women 59 41 +18
White Working Class Women 61 39 +21
18DEMOCRACY GREENBERG WOMEN’S VOICES WOMEN VOTE CORPS RESEARCH ACTION FUND 1875 Connecticut Ave. NW 1101 15th Street NW 1707 L Street, N.W. Floor 10 Suite 900 Suite 300 Washington, DC 20009 Washington, DC 20005 Washington, DC 20036 Phone: +1 202 499 6901 Phone: +1 202 478 8300 Phone: +1 202 659 9570 www.democracycorps.com www.greenbergresearch.com www.wvwvaf.org
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