2019 THE FUTURE IS MADE - ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - Calgary Foundation
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THE FUTURE IS MADE
ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN
2019 Trends and Emerging Issues
Prepared for Calgary Foundation by James Stauch, MRU Institute for Community Prosperity
1
CONTENTS
3 Scanning the Horizon
5 The Bitumen Bomb: An Economic Projection
8 The Grand Bargain in Tatters: A Political
Projection
10 From Safety Nets to Trampolines
12 A Maturing Non-profit Sector (in More Ways
than One)
14 Robot-Proofing the Social Economy: From
Digital Distrust to the Moral Machine
17 Social Finance Arrives
19 User-Driven Philanthropy
21 #MeFirst
23 Stranger City: A Little Cosmopolitanism on the
Prairie
24 Food Desert City: Can You Tell Me How to Get to
Sesame Street?
25 Beyond the Beef
27 Bombastic Bolsonaro and the Plastic Planet
29 Designing the Safe and Just Space for
Humanity
31 The Elephant in the Room: Climate Breakdown
33 Power from the People: From Vanishing
Royalties to a Distributed Grid
35 Endnotes
2 40 AcknowledgementsSCANNING THE
HORIZON
"Listen, are we helpless? Are we doomed to do it again and again and again? Have we no choice but to play
the Phoenix in an unending sequence of rise and fall? Assyria, Babylon, Egypt, Greece, Carthage, Rome, the
Empires of Charlemagne and the Turk: Ground to dust and plowed with salt. Spain, France, Britain, America—
burned into the oblivion of the centuries. And again and again and again. Are we doomed to it, Lord, chained to
the pendulum of our own mad clockwork, helpless to halt its swing? This time, it will swing us clean to oblivion."
- Walter M. Miller, Jr.,
A Canticle for Leibowitz (1959)
Well? Are we really “chained to the a polity, with clear-eyed resolve (and across
pendulum of our own mad clockwork, the political spectrum), to reject the Winter
helpless to halt its swing?” Olympics bid. South of the border, the mid-
term elections proved that democracy is
Hell, no! It is the gospel according to every still alive: People do still have a say in their
Alberta leader who has come before us that future, notwithstanding jerrymandering, voter
we are masters of our own destiny, that we pull suppression and partisan judicial appointments.
ourselves up by our bootstraps, that we need to At a more meta-level, we have been busy for a
take responsibility for our future, and, above all few generations now terra-reformatting: As 2018
else, that we are entrepreneurial. This includes Metcalf Foundation Fellow Graham Saul notes,
current Premier Rachel Notley, who is fond of we have created a “Frankenstein biosphere”2
saying “the future is not found, it’s made.” entirely of our own design, where, for example,
wildlife now accounts for only 3% of animal
Despite oil and gas being incredibly important to biomass – the rest is livestock, pets and us.3
the Canadian economy – roughly seven times the
impact of the auto sector, for example1 – we are With that said, it is still all too easy to fall into a
starting to realize that many of our natural assets ‘victim’ mindset. It is comfortable, convenient and
may be permanently stranded or undervalued. effortless to blame others. Environmentalists on
Our economy relies heavily on two things North the BC coast blame Alberta Premier Rachel Notley
Americans still desire but want less of: oil and and PM Justin Trudeau (Trudeau’s pipeline, they
meat. Even as the world moves irreversibly, albeit call it) for trying to despoil the natural beauty and
sluggishly, to a lower carbon future, and as the integrity of the Salish Sea. Yet on the eastern
routes to new markets are cut off, it remains side of the Rockies, it is Trudeau who is ironically
so – despite this uncomfortable adjustment pipeline enemy #1. The truth probably lies in the
- that we are the authors of our own future. middle somewhere, as governing is almost always
We’ve realized, for example, that we can shape about pragmatic trade-offs and compromises.
the market price of oil by legislatively choking But spewing vitriol is easier – and, honestly,
supply; an industry-supported heavy hand much more fun – than analyzing policy options.
of government slapping aside the invisible Nevermind attempting to understand where
hand of the market. We have also decided as the other side is coming from: BC enviros don’t
3give a damn about the livelihoods of oil patch control of our future choices and directions.
workers and their families, or about the ingenuity We cover terrain from ethical machine learning,
(including environmental innovation) that has to our shifting role as energy producers; from
come out of the ‘patch’, nor do they readily designing our way out of food deserts, livestock
acknowledge that Alberta has shown climate expansion and throw-away plastic, to new
leadership through a carbon tax or shutting down finance, evidentiary, cultural and philanthropic
coal. And which community could be the next instruments to invest in community innovation.
Lac Megantic, now that rail (with three times the
carbon footprint, no less) is replacing pipe? This scan anticipates, celebrates and challenges
us to quit shouting at the TV (or “tsk tsking” at
Conversely, most Albertans don’t really seem to our smartphone), to move from watching the
comprehend that most First Nations in BC have hockey game to playing on the ice. We can,
never ceded their territory and must actually must and will design a future that is better
consent to this development (or at least have their than the present. What’s more is that machines
concerns tangibly accommodated). Nor are we will be our allies, as they always have been,
all that interested in the thousands of Burnaby even as the distinction between biological
residents who have witnessed a rupture in the and mechanical life are evermore blurred.
existing Transmountain pipe shower their streets
in black crude4, or that the BC coastal ecosystem This is the fourth annual scan in a series
is among the most bio-diverse in North America. commissioned by Calgary Foundation. Like
For what it’s worth, most Canadians tend to previous scans, prepared on the eve of 2016,
side with Alberta on this battle5, but that alone 2017 and 2018 respectively, all of which
doesn’t make for a winning scenario. The stakes are publicly available, this scan peers into
are ratcheted to the stratosphere on both sides. 2019 and reports on major current socio-
Heels are dug in, and pride is too big to swallow. economic trends and developments, at local,
provincial, national and international scales,
But there is no positive future in sight if we sit relevant to the work of the Foundation.
back and cast aspersions. The world will blithely
move on, and the only tears shed for the plight of Most of the trends covered in previous scans are
privileged Albertans or of privileged west coasters still very much in play. But here we have surfaced
will be of the crocodilian variety (nearly half of a series of new themes. Like the previous
Canadians simply have no opinion whatsoever scans, it is selective and ‘curated’ – it is far from
on the pipeline6). As George Marshall reminds a comprehensive analysis of all trends in all
us through the Alberta Narratives project7, which sectors. It focuses on phenomena that directly
digs into how Albertans actually feel about impact the Foundation’s interests in stewarding
climate change, we tend to caricature people its financial and community investments and
who don’t share our opinions. The people on in nurturing a community where all belong. It
the other side of any issue we care about – the is also, at times, deliberately provocative.
people who aren’t like us, we tend to see as
selfish, narcissistic and impulsive. We, on the Information in this scan is derived from
other hand, are the responsible ones who care several sources, including news stories, op-
about community and wise stewardship (it’s why eds, policy reports and academic literature.
we, as an institute, chose the name “community
prosperity” – that’s what everyone wants, isn’t it?). The scan is organized under a set of
As previous scans exploited the metaphors themes, each of which uses multiple
and unsettling examples of uncertainty and lenses – social, cultural, political, economic,
massive change, the overarching theme of this environmental and technological.
scan is to highlight areas where we are taking
4THE BITUMEN BOMB: AN ECONOMIC
PROJECTION
"Oil prices getting lower. Great! Like a big Tax Cut for America and the World. Enjoy! $54, was just $82. Thank
you to Saudi Arabia, but let’s go lower!"
- President Donald Trump, Tweet posted
at 5:49 AM - Nov 21, 2018
While Albertans of every political stripe may On November 30, 2018, Prime Minister Justin
recoil at a tweet like this, at a time like this, there’s Trudeau, U.S. President Donald Trump, and
no denying that President Trump has overseen Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto signed
an era of rapid economic expansion (albeit an the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement,
expansion that had started under the late days or USMCA, as it has been awkwardly rebranded.
of the Obama administration). The S&P 500 is The deal will still need to be ratified by the
up 22% in a 2-year span, unemployment has governments of all three countries, which in
hit record lows and wages are growing.8 Much the U.S. is not necessarily a fait accompli. For
of this expansion, however, is in the form of its part, Canada salvaged some provisions, but
repatriation of offshore wealth, under Trump’s yielded some major concessions, including
wealth-friendly tax reforms. As much of the opening up the Canadian dairy market to U.S.
$2.1 trillion parked overseas by U.S. investors producers and failing to remove aluminum and
returns home, share buybacks are inflating share iron tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.
valuations well beyond what the market would Overall, the deal is basically an upgrade to
normally settle out at.9 This market “sugar high” is NAFTA, with a generally positive impact
likely to fade, leaving behind two uncomfortable expected on Alberta13 and stronger labour
problems – inflation and growing inequality. In provisions that could benefit manufacturing
fact, there are early signs with global equities workers more concretely than NAFTA did.14
already underperforming relative to last year.10
The Canadian dollar has settled in a few cents
The London-based research group Capital below last year’s level, holding fairly steady since
Economics predicts that 2019 will see the late spring in the 75 cents U.S. range.15 The
U.S. boom turn to bust. The early December pace of economic growth in Canada slowed in
mini-market meltdown might or might not be the latter half of 2018 as business investment
a harbinger of this (markets have been far too spending fell, household spending slowed and
volatile over the past year to discern any reliable the Bank of Canada raised its interest rate to a
trend). And as goes the US, ripple effects will decade-high of 1.75%.16 Piqued by the dismal
flow north of the 49th parallel.11 Similarly, global price of Western Canadian Select crude and the
growth is expected to slide below 3% through permanent closure of the Oshawa GM plant, the
2019-2020, with rising tariffs and uncertainties economy will continue to sputter. Scotiabank’s
relating to Brexit, the simmering U.S.-China economic outlook sees Canadian GDP growth
trade dispute, an increasingly ostracized Saudi dropping from 3.0 in 2017 to 1.8 by 2020
Arabia, and other geo-political wildcards.12 (although Alberta is consistently higher than
5this).17 Rising interest rates could also reveal the That said, 2018 has closed on an unambiguously
financial vulnerability of many Canadians. As sour note for Calgary and Alberta. The ‘no’ vote
a recent neighbourhood financial health report on the 2026 Winter Olympic Games may have just
puts it, although “the net worth of Canadians been collateral damage from this deeper funk:
overall has increased, driven by rising housing The main driver of this angst is the astonishingly
prices in key markets and investment wealth, low price of Alberta crude, sitting at roughly four
many Canadians have seen little if any gain [as] times lower than the North American average at
rising household debt has far outpaced income the end of November (the $54/barrel figure in The
growth.”18 Total household debt in Canada Donald’s tweet) after a dramatic late November
– at over $2 trillion - now exceeds GDP.19 plunge. In fact, the differential is so vast that
we should pay far less attention to “oil” prices,
Certain fundamentals of the Alberta economy per se – which are quite high historically– and
had made marked improvements through 2017 zero in on the market for bitumen, which, in
and 2018, prior to the late November meltdown most practical respects, is an entirely different
of the price of Western Canadian Select crude: resource with an entirely different set of
The province has the lowest debt-GDP ratio production and transportation factors and costs.
in the country, positive net in-migration again, Turns out they really are tar sands after all.21
shrinking unemployment and both the highest
annual growth and GDP per capita in the Although not all industry players were in
country.20 Though there is an over-supply of favour of the provincial government legislating
housing and commercial properties, and housing production caps for bitumen, there was
prices remain soft, most trends have been bipartisan unity on the strategy, and it turned
stronger in Alberta than the rest of Canada. out to be – so far – effective: The price of
Western Canadian Select jumped from $8
a barrel to $29.95 two days following the
6announcement (when the price of West Texas new pipeline and rail capacity approved in the face
Intermediate rose only $2 per barrel).22 of stricter environmental regulations and growing
recognition of Indigenous rights and title. We are
With the benefit of hindsight, we should have also scrambling for new sources of public revenue
seen this coming and prepared accordingly: (or, more to the point, kicking the fiscal football
When Alberta was reviewing its royalty regime down the road) as well as for new opportunities
back in 2007, it was widely understood that the to upgrade bitumen and to diversify the economy.
production and transportation costs for bitumen
were substantially higher and that refining could As Kinder Morgan was set to exit the
only be done – at scale – by a handful of highly Transmountain project, the federal government
specialized plants located mainly in the U.S. or off- stepped in to buy the pipeline for $4.5 billion only
shore.23 The price for bitumen, it was known then, to see the approval delayed indefinitely in the
would be more volatile and generally much lower courts.24 Then it was announced that the Keystone
than the price for, say, West Texas Intermediate as XL project would be delayed, possibly indefinitely.
a benchmark. Royalties would be permanently and Without a significant breakthrough in market
structurally far less lucrative than conventional oil. access, Alberta stands to lose about $4 billion
a year in royalty revenues, according to current
The implications for this were that a) the estimates. 25 This doesn’t account for the tab
provincial government could not rely on petroleum the province will likely be left with in abandoned
royalties to nearly the same degree as in the past wells and tailings ponds – an unfunded
as a source of ongoing revenue; and b) public environmental liability that runs in excess of $260
government will likely have to play a heavier, more billion, according to some internal estimates
direct role in either building new sophisticated (this the other side of the ‘bitumen bomb’).26
refining capacity (as former Alberta Premier Peter
Lougheed advocated), or in getting bitumen to
market, or both. We are now scrambling to get
7THE GRAND BARGAIN IN TATTERS:
A POLITICAL PROJECTION
"Earlier this year, Notley tried to out-Kenney Kenney by slapping a ban on B.C. wine when that province’s NDP
government wanted to restrict bitumen transmission. Now, Kenney has out-Notleyed his NDP foe by wanting to
centralize management of the oil industry. Strange times, yes, but also pre-election times..."27
- Jason Markusoff, writing in Maclean’s
It seemed like such a great win-win political play and fighting for the pipeline, they’ve struggled
for both Alberta and Canada a couple years back: to get much air time for their comparative
Alberta, an environmental pariah on the world strong suit – social welfare and labour policies
stage, signals it is serious about addressing that have taken Alberta from zero to hero in
its carbon emissions, rolling out the Climate Confederation (at least among those who pay
Leadership Plan to great applause and fanfare, attention to social policy). Trudeau and Notley
including from many respected industry leaders. have both expended massive political capital on
In exchange, the federal government agrees to this issue with a punishingly negative net return.
drive the Kinder Morgan pipeline project forward. The pipeline is dead, and the national carbon
Then BC almost had an NDP majority, which strategy is a shadow of what it could have been.
would have been more likely to back the pipeline
under pressure from organized labour, but instead As we enter an election year, both provincially (in
formed a minority coalition with the Greens. Uh the spring) and federally (in the fall), this grand
oh. Ontario almost had a moderate PC leader in bargain is looking more and more like a poisoned
Patrick Brown, then it looked like Christine Elliott chalice. The NDP will likely retain healthy support
or Carolyn Mulroney would be the successor. But in Edmonton and lose all or most of their seats
populist Doug Ford took the reigns. Uh oh, again. in rural and smaller urban centres to the UCP.
This leaves Calgary as the battleground.
Then there was the elephant in the room: First
Nations along the pipeline route who were The spring provincial election is shaping up to
inadequately consulted and whose concerns be a two-way race between two heavy-weights
were inadequately accommodated. The federal of Canadian politics, Premier Rachel Notley
government, who had seen a major breakthrough and challenger Jason Kenney. Both leaders
in Calgary with the first 2 Liberal MPs elected are politically wily, policy wonkish, and largely
since 1968 (both of whom have since been likeable, irrespective of their political ideologies
embroiled in sexual harassment controversies), and party affiliations. Naturally, they appeal to
are not going to win back any support in Alberta. different demographics: Broadly speaking, if
Yet they’ve gone so far down the pipeline path young urbanites vote in large numbers and rural,
they ended up buying the project for billions – older voters stay home, the NDP stands a fighting
likely bleeding precious BC votes in the process. chance of getting re-elected. If younger voters
The Notley government, meanwhile, has had to stay home, the province will be painted blue again.
spend so much time defending the carbon tax The NDP government’s main vulnerability
8is stewarding a large public deficit with few gap – defined as the permanent and immediate
politically-palatable new revenue or expenditure reduction in expenditures or increase in revenues
cut options28, along with a lot of people still required to ensure sustainable future debt levels –
out of work or underemployed. The average is equivalent to 2.7% of GDP. For perspective, that
period of unemployment for Albertans has means cutting government expenditures by $1
grown from a mean of seven weeks to an out of every $6 spent or introducing a 10% sales
average of twenty-one weeks. That’s a long tax.”31 We might well see the next government
time for angst and anger to foment. rip off the band-aid and implement a sales tax,
likely no more than 5%, which would keep Alberta
But it’s not necessarily a cakewalk into power still at the lowest level vis-à-vis other provinces.
for the UCP. There are two points of vulnerability:
1. Social conservative skeletons in closets, There are simply far too few revenue options
including Kenney’s own skeletons (many will and little public appetite for deep spending cuts.
remember that Jason Kenney was socially far- Moreover, the Alberta Party has already done the
right even in the 1990s, when homophobia was other two parties a favour by surfacing a sales
mainstream); and 2. A total breakdown in unity tax as a serious item for debate. Last year’s scan
on economic policy and the role of government predicted that the carbon tax would stay, even
stimulus. Kenney has tried to quell the more under a UPC government, but with a growing
extreme elements within the party, who wrongly club of provincial opponents and with Kenney
assume Alberta has similar identity politics so evangelically committed, a climb-down may
leanings as Trump-friendly regions in the U.S., be impossible. Assuming the Liberal and Alberta
and therefore feel free to say outlandish things parties continue to languish in obscurity, it will
about various minority groups in public or semi- remain a two-way battle, where the NDP has a
public settings. In fact, Albertans, particularly fighting (though slim) chance at re-election.
urban Albertans (which form the large majority
of the voting public), are socially progressive.29 At the federal level, a Trudeau re-election seems
to be a safer bet. The federal NDP appear, at
On the economic policy front, conservatives in this point at least, to have made an epic flub
Canada – including Alberta – are all over the in electing Jagmeet Singh, which will keep
map. Some are pushing for more government Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer away from
regulation to tighten oil production, while others getting the keys to 24 Sussex. While many of
cringe at the notion. Some were squarely in these NDP votes will decamp to the Liberals,
favour of the Olympics bid, others were among we can also expect to see an uptick in Green
its biggest critics. The late Milton Friedman, Party support: Elizabeth May is as popular as
who, for free-market conservatives, has almost Jagmeet Singh and their poll numbers are near
god-like status, advocated both a carbon tax and the double digits.32 While a year is a long time
universal basic income.30 Yet Ontario Premier to move from lightweight to contender (as
Doug Ford’s populism rode the wave of crushing Trudeau did so successfully), Singh has so far
both of those experiments. Kenney’s anti-carbon revealed himself as politically naïve. So long as
tax rants have become his bread and butter, yet Trudeau commandeers the centre left, the math
any other way of addressing climate change will never work for Scheer’s Conservatives. If,
involves less market-friendly measures like however, they struck a more progressive tone,
regulation and/or large new public expenditures. the Conservatives could chew into the soft
suburban “905” motherlode of Ontario votes, not
One prediction that can be taken to the bank: to mention pockets in BC and Atlantic Canada.
There will be at least serious discussion of a Although they seem to have dodged the bullet for
sales tax, more likely under Kenney (who would now, the Liberal government’s multi-billion-dollar
have more political room to maneuver, as it plays purchase of a pipeline that never got built will be
against type, and the most rabid anti-taxers are an albatross that won’t leave their neck easily.
in his camp anyway). As University of Calgary
economist Trevor Tombe notes, ”Alberta’s fiscal
9FROM SAFETY NETS TO
TRAMPOLINES
"Stop giving grants and start funding experiments"33
- Van Jones
There has been a flurry of legislative and policy credits and deductions, and extending charitable
activity in Alberta over the past few years that status to local non-profit media outlets.
have created a thicker social safety net. Anyone
who lived in Alberta through the 1980s will This distinction between catching people from
attest that the number of people falling out of falling into deprivation and propelling people
the economy into poverty during this current into prosperity is, in part, a rhetorical device
petro-recession would no doubt have been (both are actually needed). But the metaphor
much more profound were it not for initiatives helps us adapt and update our mental models.
such as the child benefit, increases to AISH, the Sarah Schulman, the founder of the cutting-edge
carbon rebate for low income families, a freeze social research consultancy InWithForward34,
on tuition, minimum wage increases and payday exquisitely describes their approach as “turning
lending legislation, to name just a few. The impact social safety nets into trampolines, [enabling]
on community service organizations already people on the margins to flourish.” This
reeling from the gutting of corporate community allegory captures their propulsive social design
investment programs and dropping charitable approach, which is a rooted in engagement
donations would have been even more profound. and ethnographic observation of client needs,
aspirations and patterns. It is a “thick data”
But while these measures have stunted the level approach, to use Schulman’s phrase, rather
of misery and deprivation, these ‘nets’ have only than a “big data” approach. Understanding
recently – and tentatively – been complemented deeply, in addition to broadly, also builds on
by measures that pivot from ‘fighting poverty’ the observation that innovation is born of
to ‘building community prosperity’. Two such compassion, deep listening, and imagination.35
measures are worth noting – the introduction
of the Community Economic Development As last year’s scan reported, the next decade will
Corporation (CEDC) investment credit, to help be marked by major advancements in how we
Alberta investors and businesses advance discover, try, test, and scale approaches – old and
rural economic development and social impact new – to addressing social and environmental
initiatives, and the Alberta Investor Tax credit challenges. Moreover, there is rising interest and
(AITC) to encourage investment in non-traditional momentum – though still precious few resources
sectors with strong job-creation potential. – for using big data, and – more broadly – for
engaging in “social R&D.” It is part of building a
One interesting new federal initiative to boost culture of curiosity throughout the social sector
community prosperity is a series of measures about what works, what doesn’t, and why or
to support local news outlets, including tax why not. Two stats from last year’s scan bear
10repeating here: Currently, only about 1 in 20 What Works Centres and the nonpartisan
social impact organizations (excluding health Washington State institute for Public Policy,
care) engage in any meaningful amount of R&D.36 which collect, rank and rate the evidence base
A Bridgespan Group study revealed that only 2 of different social interventions and innovations
of 5 non-profit organizations surveyed felt they across a range of fields.38 Emerging Canadian
had the capacity to innovate, which was defined examples include the Community Safety
as a break from current practice in the interest Knowledge Alliance, the Canadian Observatory on
of “significant, positive sustained impact.”37 Homelessness and Alberta’s own PolicyWise for
Childen and Youth. Last year’s scan also covered
In November of 2018, the Mowat Not-for-Profit subsets of social R&D, including knowledge
program at the University of Toronto teamed up mobilizers, research aggregators, social labs,
with the University of Regina to host “Evidence think and do tanks, evidence centres, learning
that Works,” Canada’s first summit on evidence- consortia, community scholarship and co-created
based infrastructure in Canada for social policy. research, and reflective practice. These are the
International examples shared at this summit coils and loops that give the “trampolines” the
included the UK’s network of university-partnered tension and robustness required to spring society
11A MATURING NON-PROFIT SECTOR
(IN MORE WAYS THAN ONE)
"Aging is an extraordinary process where you become the person you always should have been."
- David Bowie
The non-profit sector in Alberta has grown by activities will help bring Canadian philanthropic
35% in the past 15 years from just over 19,000 activity into the global mainstream: As a recent
organizations to over 26,000.39 The non-profit report on Canadian philanthropy noted, “we have
sector in Canada is also growing, including fallen behind the rest of the common law world
as a proportion of total employment, a trend in the way we regulate and treat charities.
that we can expect to intensify with the onset
of AI and robotics (as so many non-profit jobs Our courts have been far more conservative than
are in the high-touch ‘helping’ and advocacy the courts in England, Australia, New Zealand
professions, or otherwise dealing with human or the United States. An unreformed system of
complexity).40 The implications of AI and the charities regulation defines charities in legislation
social sector are discussed in the next section. by their activities, not just their purposes, and
constrains charitable activity. Foundations are
One way in which the sector will grow is through also constrained in their ability to engage in
a greater proportion of those employed in funding non-profits or in engaging in any form of
journalism working for non-profit organizations. social purpose business.”42 As the sector grows
In the Federal Government’s Fall Fiscal Update, in employment43, as it garners more capital from
they extended the right to obtain charitable earned revenue than from donations, and as
status to non-profit journalism outlets, which are the rules governing charities’ political activities
growing in number, diversity and sophistication, are loosened, we can expect civil society to find
as commercial and public journalism shrinks.41 its mojo – to act as a more empowered, less
deferential actor in public decision-making.44
Another marker of the non-profit sector’s maturity
and growing collective voice is through two other The non-profit sector is also maturing in a
significant measures announced in the same different way: Its workforce and donor base is
Update: 1) Establishing a permanent Advisory aging, and there are profound consequences
Committee on the Charitable Sector to advise for both of these dynamics. According to the
on issues affecting the sector on an ongoing CanadaHelps Giving report45, Canadians over the
basis, strengthening the relationship between the age of 55 are carrying the burden of individual
public and charitable sectors; and 2) Ensuring a charitable donations. The next group, 45-54
stronger role for charities in developing public year-olds, are characterized by a sharp decline
policy and restating the commitment to remove in charitable giving, and it continues to drop off
limits on non-partisan political activities (granted, with younger demographics. There are many
the courts forced the government’s hand on the potential reasons for this, including overleveraging
latter of these commitments). Both of these and the burden of rising housing costs, a decline
12in formal religious practice, and a rise in non- succession planning, the sky has not fallen with
receipted forms of giving (crowdfunding; overseas respect to the generational transitions. What
remittances, etc.). But unless something radical is changing is the expectation that non-profit
shifts, this downward trend will not only continue, jobs provide decent work.48 The myth of the
it will intensify.46 In Calgary, where community ‘feel-good premium’, where non-profit workers
groups rely more on corporate largesse than in (overwhelmingly female, by no coincidence)
other large cities, many companies during this accept a lower wage and benefits regime for their
last downturn have eliminated or downsized work (presumably because it’s – hmm – closer to
their community investment portfolios. God?), is falling into the same dustbin of history
as other paternalistic norms and patterns. As
The aging workforce is not news to the non-profit such, there is a lot of catch-up afoot, for example,
sector. While Canadian-specific data is harder with respect to retirement benefits. The Ontario
to procure, following the dissolution of the HR Nonprofit Network recently rolled out a province-
Council for the Nonprofit Sector, we have heard wide non-profit retirement plan while a national
the North America-wide warnings for well over a initiative, in earlier stages of development, is
decade. Back in 2007, an Annie E. Casey report designed to also benefit precarious and part-time
called Next Shift noted that “study after study employees. This “Common Good Retirement
has pointed to an impending crisis, with roughly Plan” is being promoted by philanthropies like the
75% of executive directors/CEOs reporting that Atkinson, Metcalf and Maytree Foundations.49
they plan to leave their jobs within the next five
years.”47 Many of these expected retirements
have been delayed, and, despite anxieties about
13ROBOT-PROOFING THE SOCIAL ECONOMY:
FROM DIGITAL DISTRUST TO THE MORAL
MACHINE
"Nobody phrases it this way, but I think that artificial intelligence [AI] is almost a humanities discipline. It’s really
an attempt to understand human intelligence and human cognition."50
—Sebastian Thrun, robotics pioneer and founding CEO, Udacity
"I know now why you cry."
- T-800, in the film Terminator II: Judgement Day
Last year’s scan noted that we are in the early beings, both the strugglers and the ignorant
stages of what the World Economic Forum will remain behind. Others will realize that the
describe as the “Fourth Industrial Revolution,”51 only way to success lies in collaboration with
where machine awareness outpaces human the computers. They will help computers learn
awareness. This self- awareness, often referred to and will direct their growth and learning.”54
as the “singularity,” is the logical result of machine
learning. As futurist Roey Tzezana, in a blog post One way in which the directing of computers’
on the singularity puts it, “it seems pretty obvious growth and learning is happening is through the
that once we have a super-intelligent AI, it will quest to make machines ethical. Researchers
be able to create a better version of itself. And at MIT have been conducting a massive study
guess what the new generation of AI would then involving 40 million voluntary participants in
do? That’s right – improve itself even further. over 200 countries.55 The intent is to inform how
This kind of a race would lead to an intelligence autonomous vehicles ought to decide between
explosion and will leave old poor us – simple, difficult choices (injuring the occupants of the
biological machines that we are – far behind.”52 vehicle vs. injuring pedestrians, for example).
Their early findings, published earlier this year
Well in advance of this happening, we already in the journal Nature, reveal fascinating cultural
are losing faith in technology, a phenomenon differences with respect to the value we place
labelled ‘digital distrust’. And that is a very good on older people, gender, or on pedestrians
thing, as ‘faith’ in tech is a terrible default human vs. vehicular occupants, for example.
cognitive response – it is passive, fatalistic and
negligent.53 But far from a neo-Luddite revolt, The coming year will also see an intensification
more people, in more diverse fields, will be taking of “augmented analytics,” which involves
a more active interest in how machines learn. the application of machine learning to help
As Tzezana puts it, “some humans will struggle organizations optimize the decisions and actions
against the AI. Others will ignore it. Both these of all employees, as well as “digital twins” of
approaches will prove disastrous, since when organizations to test business models, service
the AI will become more capable than human prototypes and deployment of resources in a
14virtual environment before rolling out in real up a Centre for Collective Intelligence Design,
life.56 As always, though, tech innovations come which will explore how human and machine
first to the private and public sectors, and only intelligence can be combined to make the
belatedly to the community sector. But the most of our collective knowledge and develop
potential that lies with the melding of AI and the solutions to social challenges.61 Canadian
social sector is already starting to be revealed. futurist Hamoon Ekhtiari argues that collective
The first wave of “robotization” of the economy conscious and collective imagination need to be
is happening in fields that are characterized added to collective intelligence in order for the
as either dull, dangerous, dirty or dear (in the human-AI relationship to truly serve humanity.62
sense of investment-intensive).57 Nearly 40%
of U.S. jobs are considered to be at “high The good news for the social sector is that
risk of being replaced by robots and artificial robots will allow us to spend more time on
intelligence” within the next 15 years.58 questions of complexity, and the really good
news is machines will be able to help.63 As
Although we can expect many new jobs to Elizabeth Good Christopherson, CEO of the Rita
emerge, this is still a pretty extreme form of what Allen Foundation remarks, “used poorly, there is
Joseph Schumpeter called “creative destruction.” no doubt that artificial intelligence can serve to
Beyond this, prognosticators from the late automate bias and disconnection, rather than
Stephen Hawking to Elon Musk have predicted supporting community resiliency. For the social
apocalyptic consequences for humanity with the sector, a values-driven, human-centered, inclusive
onset of AI. Once the robots realize they don’t process of development can help to mitigate the
need us, the thinking goes, they will dispense with ethical risks of developing artificial intelligence.”
us. But this assumes that intelligent machines We’ll also be needing “experts in unexpected
will have a natural inclination to dominate, so disciplines such as human conversation, dialogue,
we may be simply projecting our own twisted humor, poetry, and empathy.”64 As former chess
assumptions about human behaviour. There is champion Gary Kasparov argues, when computers
no innate reason to assume that we should fear focus on the dull, dangerous, dirty and dear, this
an evil AI, or that we deserve a beneficent AI. We should permit humans to elevate our cognition
will simply get the AI we design. Which means “toward creativity, curiosity, beauty, and joy.”65
it will reflect and either amplify, or consciously
correct for (or complement), human qualities. Non-profit organizations in the U.S. are already
starting to use AI in app development, which
What will humans do when all these uber- accesses and analyzes massive amounts of
intelligent machines are in our midst? Well, as open source data to, for example, report and rate
one New Yorker article argues persuasively, we’ll experiences with police officers, or to identify
be more human.59 Thinking about the design and “high-risk” texters to dramatically shorten the
application of AI can actually help clarify what response time for crisis counselling.66 The use of
makes us human: More creative, empathetic, AI enables the surfacing of patterns detectable
emotionally intelligent, but also with a capacity from reams of information (some of which is
for cruelty and emotion-triggered irrational very nuanced, like human language), essentially,
blindspots. AI has the potential to enable the to find needles of meaning amid haystacks
former while replacing the latter – a kind of of data. The non-profit Crisis Text Line found,
“rational compassion.” This melding of human using AI, that the word “Ibuprofen” is “16 times
and machine into more fulfilling work and a more likely to predict the need for emergency
more perfect decision-making being, even has aid than the word ‘suicide,’” which has enabled
a term coined for it – “cobot.”60 The U.K.’s major them to re-prioritize their queue and save lives.
social innovation think-tank, Nesta, just opened
15Further analysis with the same technology high-octane facts, as Northeastern University
revealed that crisis workers were more successful president Joseph Aoun argues in his book
when they employed creative, adaptable Robot-Proof.70 Instead, the role of education
approaches instead of scripted counselling must be to understand how we can use better
methodologies.67 A recent meta-analysis of 50 data and machine learning, on the one hand, but
years of research on suicide factors revealed also to fill needs in society that even the most
that there is no standard set of risk factors.68 To sophisticated AI agent cannot. This requires the
predict suicide would require the development cultivation of the humanities, a creative mindset,
of complex algorithms involving hundreds of systems thinking and mental elasticity. In this
variables, which is precisely what teams at the light, fretting about which new math technique
Royal Mental Health Centre in Ottawa and Florida our teachers select, or at which grade our
State University are now working on; using schools are teaching sex ed, is a bit like fiddling
machine learning and AI to analyze social media while Rome burns. As Canadian post-secondary
activity (in the former example) and anonymized education blogger Alex Usher argues, we should
patient records (in the latter). This would have be marshalling far more mental energy and
been unthinkable a decade ago. Beta versions public expenditure toward an education system
of this technology show remarkable promise that functions to produce robot-proof humans.71
– in the Florida State example, 80% accuracy This suggests, as well, that – far from vanishing
at predicting suicide attempts within 2 years, into irrelevance – liberal education may in fact
rising to 92% accuracy within one week.69 be on the verge of a golden era (the American
Association of Colleges and Universities defines
This malleable, fast-changing, multi-variate liberal education as “an approach to learning
context means that the future of education will that empowers individuals and prepares them to
not be about topping up students’ minds with deal with complexity, diversity, and change”).72
16SOCIAL FINANCE ARRIVES
"My dream is to find individuals who take financial resources and convert them into changing the world in the
most positive of ways."
- Jacqueline Novogratz, Founder and CEO, Acumen
In each of the previous environmental scans, of a $755 million social finance fund. The funds,
we have talked about the tenuous, though to be distributed over 10 years, will provide
steady, emergence of social finance as a clear alternative outcomes-tied financing to non-profit
trend. But to date, social finance has been well and charitable organizations. This announcement
on the margins. Now, though, the top MBA follows on the heels of the final report of the
programs in the world – Harvard, Oxford, Yale, Social Innovation and Social Finance Steering
INSEAD, Wharton – have all introduced social Group76. Titled Inclusive Innovation, it called
finance or impact investing components. for the creation of such a fund, mirroring the
observations of Brian Emmett, Chief Economist
On the market-embedded, low-risk side of the for Canada’s Charitable and Nonprofit Sector:
social finance spectrum, in addition to mutual
funds with diversified socially responsible “Donations, government grants and
screens, there are at least 13 new socially contributions will not keep pace with
responsible Exchange-traded funds (ETFs), increasing demand for services. This will
mostly structured around low carbon emitters result in a social deficit that will manifest
and clean tech. 73 In a recent study commissioned as unmet needs in the community. There
by the Canadian Environmental Grantmakers is a need to re-examine administrative
Network, 83% of member foundations employed a relationships, regulatory regimes, and how
responsible investing strategy.74 This represents a we work together for the common good.”77
sea change from a decade ago. It also notes how
other large non-profit organizations, notably some This new commitment takes Canada “from
universities, are making responsible investment being a complete laggard in this area to being
statements. Harvard’s is an illustrative example: a world leader,” notes James Tansey at UBC’s
Sauder Centre for Social Innovation.78 The
We believe that a university has an ethical social finance fund will invest in projects that
responsibility to invest in companies that are “not yet viable in the commercial market.”
are consistent with its role and values, and It is intended to spur a self-sustaining social
to avoid entities with practices that are finance market over time (not requiring additional
antithetical to its role and values. Harvard’s public investment – we’ll see), and is intended to
priorities include reducing greenhouse operate through a competitive, transparent and
gas emissions, promoting cross-cultural merit-based process. The fund will be looking
understanding, respecting worker’s rights, for private sector and philanthropic partners
solving public-health challenges, and to share in the risks and rewards, presumably
supporting intellectual freedom.75 through such instruments as social impact bonds
(SIBs). While the jury is still out on the efficacy
In his Fall 2018 Fiscal Update, Federal Finance and transformative potential of SIBs, there is
Minister Bill Morneau announced the creation a significant amount of research underway,
17and it is far too early to rule out the potential of social finance funds, the best-known examples
well-designed SIBs. The Calgary Counselling to date.80 More details are expected in early
Centre is about to embark on Alberta’s first SIB 2019. Designed well, accompanied by modest
experiment. Their timing couldn’t be better. (and still needed) regulatory barriers to social
enterprise, as well as a large-scale commitment
The social finance fund is also a major to social procurement from municipalities and
opportunity for foundations, including Calgary other large public purchasers, a wave of new and
Foundation’s Impact Investing stream, to scaled-up social enterprise could be unleashed.
leverage their own investment dollars toward
scaling community purpose outcomes. That The Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo (Fort
said, only about 8% of foundations globally MacMurray) has already set the pace with one of
engage in impact investing and only 11% provide the most ambitious social procurement strategies
repayable loans to community organizations. in Canada. The Fort MacMurray framework is
The number is even lower in North America, certified by Buy Social Canada which certifies
with a recent study indicating only 4% of 2,833 social enterprise suppliers and promotes social
surveyed foundations employ any combination purchasing in the private sector and across
of community loans or impact investments government. A number of larger cities, including
(social finance among foundations is most Calgary, are studying social impact purchasing
vigorously embraced in Latin America).79 carefully. The Alberta government is also looking
at this and could potentially be the first province in
Importantly, $50 million of the social finance Canada with a province-wide social procurement
fund will be set aside to help ensure readiness of strategy. Health authorities, school boards,
recipients (i.e. social enterprises and enterprising housing authorities, universities and colleges
non-profits), which hopefully addresses a can also serve as “anchor institutions” for local/
shortcoming in the Portuguese and British community/social/green/Indigenous purchasing.
18USER-DRIVEN PHILANTHROPY
"I get calls all the time from funders — and I’m thankful for this — who are interested in funding Native
communities. "Please send us every book." They have to become an expert on Native communities before
they’ll consider writing a check — and they want to do it by reading. The best thing you can do is go and sit in a
community. Participate in a feast day. If you feel a tug of the heart that there’s something special there, fund it.
By funding, you’re opening yourself up to receive, so it becomes reciprocal. I say this as a critique. But it’s more
of a sadness for me that we’re not opening our hearts and minds to receive and learn and be in relationship
with communities."81
- Edgar Villanueva, author of Decolonizing Wealth
INVEST
This year has seen the publication of two well- to appear before an inquiry regarding global
circulated books that challenge the practice of electoral manipulation certainly suggests
modern “philanthropy” at a pretty fundamental that Giridharadas may be on to something.
level: Anand Giridharadas’ provocative Winners
Take All: The Elite Charade of Changing the The other book, with more immediate relevance
World suggests that a new gilded age is upon for Canada, is Edgar Villanueva’s Decolonizing
us, where plutocrats have co-opted the language Wealth: Indigenous Wisdom to Heal Divides and
of ‘social change’ while often undermining Restore Balance. Villaneuva notes that there are
democratic institutions and the public realm.82 “plenty of books that criticize. I felt like I had
Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s infamous to push through to a place where I’m offering a
snub to European states who called on him different way of thinking.” 83 Along similar lines,
19Canadian thought-leaders like the Circle’s Kris issue we wish to change. This is an argument put
Archie and non-profit sector researcher Peter forth emphatically in a new report produced by a
Elson have written challenges to profoundly consortium of U.S. foundations called Awake to
alter our mental models in philanthropy. Elson Woke to Work: Building a Race Equity Culture.85
quotes Gina Starblanket and Heidi Stark: “It
is not enough to make space for Indigenous As part of this, and as was alluded to in last year’s
knowledge. We must allow for this space to scan, another trend we are seeing is foundations
be reconfigured by Indigenous knowledge.”84 experimenting with participatory, user-involved
grant-making models. As one new study on
Gara LaMarche, President of The Atlantic technology- enabled people power observes,
Philanthropies, wrote a decade ago that “It is ever “what is emerging – most visibly among people
more urgent, in this period of global economic under thirty . . . – is a new expectation: an
stress, that foundations and the organizations inalienable right to participate.”86 Recognizing
they fund put their power and money behind the potential for intelligent analysis of big data,
strategies that promote lasting change, not paired with curiosity about user feedback, the
temporary charity.” While that challenge remains William and Flora Hewitt Foundation and the
relevant to consider, in light of Giridharadas’ Rita Allen Foundation have created a shared
critique, there is a hollowness to the appeals platform called Feedback Labs that “aims to
to move from “grantmaking to changemaking,” change the norms in development, aid, and
to quote former Silicon Valley Community philanthropic policy to be more responsive to
Foundation CEO Emmett Carson. The missing the people that those policies aim to help.”87
link may be in drawing the connection between Rockefeller Philanthropy Advisors, through their
the abstract idea of social change and hiring initiative Funders for Shared Insight have created
and engaging the people who are closest to the a similar initiative called Listen for Good.88
20#MEFIRST
"As the rituals of confessing privilege have evolved, they have shifted our focus from building social movements
for global transformation to individual self-improvement."
– Andrea Smith, Cherokee activist
"No utopia can ever give satisfaction to everyone, all the time. As their material conditions improve, men raise
their sights and become discontented with power and possessions that once would have seemed beyond their
wildest dreams. And even when the external world has granted all it can, there still remain the searchings of the
mind and the longings of the heart."
– Arthur C. Clarke, Childhood’s End (1953)
The nineteenth century sociologist Emile The prairie provinces, once bastions of
Durkheim argued that humans have an innate cooperation, have developed a reputation for
need to sacralize – to make something sacred. being almost hysterically anti-tax. So much so
He argued that liberalism was a religion insofar that the most free-market friendly approach to
as it sacralized individual rights.89 A huge dealing with climate change – putting a price on
plurality of Canadians now identify as “spiritual, carbon emissions – is derided as an unbearable
but not religious,” which is not surprising. burden, despite (in the Alberta context) a rebate
But it does mean that spiritual practice or scheme benefitting 6 out of 10 households.
ritual is more personal – “self-spirituality” – When faced with the alternatives: heavy-
and less communal.90 Interestingly, the link handed regulation, massive public spending,
between religious practice and charitable or gifting the problem to our kids and their
giving has nothing to do with intensity of kids; we’ll have to choose one, and it’s likely to
belief and everything to do with pro-social be the last, try as we might to not admit it.
tendencies within a community – at temple,
mosque, church or any other place people But the political right doesn’t have a monopoly
gather to sacralize our shared humanity.91 on narcissism. We have witnessed over the past
decade the gradual reshaping of ‘social justice’ to
Does the year-after-year drop in charitable giving be less about economic and political equity and
in Canada signal not a decline in spirituality, more about affirmation of unique identities. For
but rather a broader diminution of pro-social many on the left, pronouns have become more
behaviour? Are we less inclined, these days, precious than nutrition, health care or housing
to think of ourselves as our brother’s and these days. While the aims of social justice are
sister’s keeper? Is our commonwealth cleaving actually broadly shared by the population, it’s the
to islands of bitter entitlement? For all of his language that is proving alienating to many. The
dismissible clownishness, Donald Trump has language that emerged from professionalized
opened the door to extreme narcissism to anti-oppression discourse and within some
at least being on a spectrum of acceptable quarters of academia, marked by such concepts
and, evidently, electable behaviour. as “trigger warnings,” “intersectionality,” and
“microaggressions,” speak more to urbane identity
politics than to economic or political injustice. It
21turns out that such language is, for much of the rightly force us toward a long, searching look
population, itself a trigger: Analyzing the data into our cultural mirror. And, indeed, for each of
from a study entitled Hidden Tribes: A Study of us do some “inner work.” In the academy, there
America’s Polarized Landscape, which sampled is also no question that western scholarship is
8,000 citizens, political scientist Yascha Mounk heavily biased toward the writings of European
noted that Americans have an overwhelming males, resulting in immense blindspots and the
aversion to what they see as “politically correct chronic devaluing of other sources of knowledge.
culture” (the 6% who favour PC culture are mostly But there is also a danger of flattening all
white and wealthy), yet people are broadly in wrongs – from the grotesquely heinous
favour of the ideas behind the language.92 For to the clumsy errors of judgement or
example, four out of five agree that white people language – into one blanket hashtag, or
don’t recognize the real advantages they have, squeezed into the lens of “privilege.”
yet they recoil at the term “white privilege”.
As social critic Phoebe Maltz Bovy argues, when
There is no question that the exposure and people are constantly confronted with privilege
calling to account of systems of degradation, discourse, reminded “of where they fall . . .
humiliation and abuse has been a very good why would such candor lead to empathy? Why
thing for society. Victims and activists have wouldn’t a society where systemic injustices are
bravely shone the light on systemic racism within front and center in everyone’s mind at all times
law enforcement, systemic pedophilia within only serve make interactions between men and
the Catholic church, systemic sexual, physical women, blacks and whites, rich and poor, that
and psychological abuse within residential much more fraught, inhibiting the development
schools, private boarding schools and some of everyday social and professional bonds?” The
quarters of amateur sport, sexual predation backlash to political correctness is real and is a
within international NGOs, Hollywood, the stand- fertile feedstock to populism. If we want to avoid
up comedy circuit, the armed forces, RCMP, a culture war seeping north of the 49th parallel, as
Parliament Hill, etc. The list is long, and it should any guide to working with Indigenous Peoples will
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