The initiative - Elements for a roadmap

The initiative - Elements for a roadmap

The initiative - Elements for a roadmap

23 October 2009 – Towards Other Earths – Porto The initiative Vincent Coudé du Foresto for the Blue Dots team Ignasi Ribas, Hans Zinnecker, Sebastian Wolf, Franck Selsis, Charles Cockell, Lisa Kaltenegger, Giovanna Tinetti, Anthony Boccaletti, Marc Ollivier, Jean-Philippe Beaulieu, Nuno Santos, Damien Segransan, Fabien Malbet, Alessandro Sozzeti, Ewa Szuszkiewicz, Helmut Lammer, Christoph Keller, Gerard van Belle, Szymon Gladysz, Chas Beichman, Hiroshi Shibai, Maxim Khodachenko, Gang Zhao, Abhijit Chakraborty + 180 other scientists Elements for a roadmap

The initiative - Elements for a roadmap

23 October 2009 – Towards Other Earths – Porto Objectives of the initiative • Contribute to building a community in Europe around the exoplanets theme • …converge towards a strategy enabling a more coherent approach to calls for proposals in ground and space based projects... • ...and most notably in time for the next CfP ESA linked to Cosmic Vision (expected in 2010) • Beyond that: remain as a permanent structure to federate the community 2

The initiative - Elements for a roadmap

23 October 2009 – Towards Other Earths – Porto Deliverables Blue Dots Timeline • Web site + intranet for information circulation • Preliminary report to CNES february 2009 • Report v1 end March 2009 – Call for feedback in the community • Report stabilized by summer 2009 • Sep. 2009: Pathways conference (proceedings) • 2010: structuration into European network (TBC) 3

23 October 2009 – Towards Other Earths – Porto 4 http://www.blue-dots.net

23 October 2009 – Towards Other Earths – Porto Deliverables Blue Dots Timeline • Web site + intranet for information circulation • Preliminary report to CNES february 2009 • Report v1 end March 2009 – Call for feedback in the community • Sep. 2009: Pathways conference (proceedings) • Report stabilized by the end 2009 • 2010: structuration into European network 5

24-25 March 2009 – BDT meeting #6 Exoplanet roadmaps… 6 Astronet ESO/ESA ESF/Graz Canada CNES Australia ExoPTF EP-RAT ExoplForum08 Decadal Survey ExoPAG ExNEPs TOPS Courtesy J. Schneider

23 October 2009 – Towards Other Earths – Porto 7 Pathways Towards Habitable Planets http://www.pathways2009.net

23 October 2009 – Towards Other Earths – Porto A road towards a goal… 8

23 October 2009 – Towards Other Earths – Porto A road towards a goal… 8 Characterize a set of habitable planets (H2O liquid)

23 October 2009 – Towards Other Earths – Porto A road towards a goal… 8 Characterize a set of habitable planets (H2O liquid) => Image + extended spectral analysis

23 October 2009 – Towards Other Earths – Porto A road towards a goal… 8 Characterize a set of habitable planets (H2O liquid) => Image + extended spectral analysis => Nearby targets (10 pc)

23 October 2009 – Towards Other Earths – Porto A road towards a goal… 8 Characterize a set of habitable planets (H2O liquid) => Image + extended spectral analysis => Nearby targets (10 pc) A set :

23 October 2009 – Towards Other Earths – Porto A road towards a goal… 8 Characterize a set of habitable planets (H2O liquid) => Image + extended spectral analysis => Nearby targets (10 pc) A set : Earth twins (around solar twins)

23 October 2009 – Towards Other Earths – Porto A road towards a goal… 8 Characterize a set of habitable planets (H2O liquid) => Image + extended spectral analysis => Nearby targets (10 pc) A set : Earth twins (around solar twins) or

23 October 2009 – Towards Other Earths – Porto A road towards a goal… 8 Characterize a set of habitable planets (H2O liquid) => Image + extended spectral analysis => Nearby targets (10 pc) A set : Earth twins (around solar twins) or Mass distribution 1-10 M⊕ around GKM stars

23 October 2009 – Towards Other Earths – Porto … with milestones on the way 1 Statistical study of planetary objects 2 Designate sources suitable for spectroscopic follow-up 3 Carry out spectroscopic characterization – Physics & chemistry of atmosphere / surface – Maximum information on the system (star, age, other planets…) 9

23 October 2009 – Towards Other Earths – Porto … with milestones on the way 1 Statistical study of planetary objects 2 Designate sources suitable for spectroscopic follow-up 3 Carry out spectroscopic characterization – Physics & chemistry of atmosphere / surface – Maximum information on the system (star, age, other planets…) 9 These define different science potential levels which can be achieved on different object classes => different difficulties

23 October 2009 – Towards Other Earths – Porto 10 Ground programs 2010 – 2020 • Radial velocities, including IR (M): • HARPS, VLT/ESPRESSO… • Instrumentation for 10-m (Keck, VLT ) and ELTs • Coronography, exAO • Optical interferometry : • Astrometry : VLTI/PRIMA • Nulling & Exozodi : KI, LBTI.. • Exozodi : ALADDIN (DomeC) • FITE (balloon borne)… • Microlensing MOA

23 October 2009 – Towards Other Earths – Porto 11 Space missions 2010-2020 • On the way : • GAIA, JWST • Choices to be made (500 M€ to 1 G€) : • USA : Decadal review, NASA choices ; • SIM-Lite, FKSI, TESS, THESIS, EUCLID-µlensing, ASMCS missions… • Japan : SPICA • ESA : CV1 PLATO, CV2 SEE-COAST + …

23 October 2009 – Towards Other Earths – Porto Methods and scales • Methods: –RV: Radial Velocities –µlensing –Transit photometry –Single Aperture Imaging –Multiple Aperture Imaging –Astrometry –Modelling planetary structures & atmospheres 12

23 October 2009 – Towards Other Earths – Porto Methods and scales • Methods: –RV: Radial Velocities –µlensing –Transit photometry –Single Aperture Imaging –Multiple Aperture Imaging –Astrometry –Modelling planetary structures & atmospheres 12 • Scales: –E (existing) –G (30M€, 5 years) –M (450M€, 10 years) –L (650M€, 15 years) –XL (> 1G€, > 20 years)

23 October 2009 – Towards Other Earths – Porto Science potential level Methods and scales 13

23 October 2009 – Towards Other Earths – Porto Timeline methods 14

23 October 2009 – Towards Other Earths – Porto Timeline methods 14 • There is no silver bullet towards the final goal…

23 October 2009 – Towards Other Earths – Porto Other comments • Current rate of discoveries much faster than typical time-scale of space programs • Two possible approaches will merge eventually: – Comprehensive strategy building up capability – Fast-track science on niche targets • Complementarity of mid-term choices by national agencies will be essential (with minority cross- participation) • Long-term: broad international collaboration needed for large flagship missions 15

23 October 2009 – Towards Other Earths – Porto 16 Space missions 2010-2020 : identifying a set of Super-Earths and Earths

23 October 2009 – Towards Other Earths – Porto 16 Space missions 2010-2020 : identifying a set of Super-Earths and Earths • Well under way : - COROT, KEPLER, RV (visible, IR for M) - Continued with PLATO, TESS…(all Galaxy) - Keep exploring the full planet mass spectrum (global picture) - Keep exploring the global Galaxy picture : Microlensing, EUCLID

23 October 2009 – Towards Other Earths – Porto 16 Space missions 2010-2020 : identifying a set of Super-Earths and Earths • Well under way : - COROT, KEPLER, RV (visible, IR for M) - Continued with PLATO, TESS…(all Galaxy) - Keep exploring the full planet mass spectrum (global picture) - Keep exploring the global Galaxy picture : Microlensing, EUCLID • Astrometry (SIM) can identify a complete set of targets @10pc (step 2), with ground support (RV, VLTI/PRIMA) = highly recommended

23 October 2009 – Towards Other Earths – Porto 17 Space missions 2015-2025 : characterizing a set of Earths and Super-Earths

23 October 2009 – Towards Other Earths – Porto 17 • Transit (+ off-transit) from space is probably the best next choice for spectroscopic characterization (step 3) = pointed spectrophotometry • Broad spectral coverage (0.5-20 µm or more) is necessary (ambiguities) • JWST may not do it sufficiently (observing time, S/N ratio ?) • Enough targets ; feasibility proven ; direct comparison with models • M-class mission(s) (500 M€ ?) to be planned (ESA, NASA) • Extends the VLT, ELT towards Super-Earth masses Space missions 2015-2025 : characterizing a set of Earths and Super-Earths

23 October 2009 – Towards Other Earths – Porto 17 • Transit (+ off-transit) from space is probably the best next choice for spectroscopic characterization (step 3) = pointed spectrophotometry • Broad spectral coverage (0.5-20 µm or more) is necessary (ambiguities) • JWST may not do it sufficiently (observing time, S/N ratio ?) • Enough targets ; feasibility proven ; direct comparison with models • M-class mission(s) (500 M€ ?) to be planned (ESA, NASA) • Extends the VLT, ELT towards Super-Earth masses Space missions 2015-2025 : characterizing a set of Earths and Super-Earths • Coronography and IR interferometry (imaging) progressing rapidly, on the way to become fully convincing (exozodi..) for reaching the goal • SPICA + A possible Probe mission to solidify the concepts • JWST : many lessons to be learned

23 October 2009 – Towards Other Earths – Porto Flagship missions 2020-2030 ? 18

23 October 2009 – Towards Other Earths – Porto Flagship missions 2020-2030 ? • It is too early to fully define an international flagship mission for 2020-2030 18

23 October 2009 – Towards Other Earths – Porto 19 Building-up an international community coherent with the goal and its importance the Barcelona process

23 October 2009 – Towards Other Earths – Porto 19 Building-up an international community coherent with the goal and its importance the Barcelona process • Globally : • A regular Pathways Conference (next one Flagstaff 2011) • An identified place for permanent interactions : ICTP model… ? • A dedicated, long-term action for outreach (HST model) • Pursue the « broad » analysis : epistemological, ethical …

23 October 2009 – Towards Other Earths – Porto 19 Building-up an international community coherent with the goal and its importance the Barcelona process • Globally : • A regular Pathways Conference (next one Flagstaff 2011) • An identified place for permanent interactions : ICTP model… ? • A dedicated, long-term action for outreach (HST model) • Pursue the « broad » analysis : epistemological, ethical … • For Europe : • A permanent Committee representing the community • Presenting the Goal to the EU and getting support (FP8) • Recognized by ESA and ESO • A dedicated Fellowship program (name ?) • Implementing the Barcelona process in Europe

23 October 2009 – Towards Other Earths – Porto 19 Building-up an international community coherent with the goal and its importance the Barcelona process • Globally : • A regular Pathways Conference (next one Flagstaff 2011) • An identified place for permanent interactions : ICTP model… ? • A dedicated, long-term action for outreach (HST model) • Pursue the « broad » analysis : epistemological, ethical … • For Europe : • A permanent Committee representing the community • Presenting the Goal to the EU and getting support (FP8) • Recognized by ESA and ESO • A dedicated Fellowship program (name ?) • Implementing the Barcelona process in Europe

23 October 2009 – Towards Other Earths – Porto 19 Building-up an international community coherent with the goal and its importance the Barcelona process • Globally : • A regular Pathways Conference (next one Flagstaff 2011) • An identified place for permanent interactions : ICTP model… ? • A dedicated, long-term action for outreach (HST model) • Pursue the « broad » analysis : epistemological, ethical … • For Europe : • A permanent Committee representing the community • Presenting the Goal to the EU and getting support (FP8) • Recognized by ESA and ESO • A dedicated Fellowship program (name ?) • Implementing the Barcelona process in Europe • With China, India, Russia : • Contributing to the emergence of a community • Establishing progressive collaboration programs (TMT…)

FOREWORD to the Contributions presented at the Barcelona Conference (Sept. 2009) Pathways towards Habitable Exoplanets The participants met to discuss and compare the different prospective exercices which have been carried out since 2007 in the US, Europe, Japan and other countries They consider : • [c1] The question of whether life exists on other worlds is among humankindʼs deepest questions, whose answer has profound implications; • [c2] That we live at a turning point in the history of knowledge when this answer is within our reach; • [c3] That the search for other worlds has already provided astounding successes, with the discovery of (to date) more than 370 planets in over 300 diverse systems; • [c4] That the field of exoplanets has strong inspirational power to draw new generations into science.

They agree : • [a1] That our long term scientific goal is to obtain a comprehensive understanding of Earth-comparable planets, which contributes to understanding our own Earth in a broader context; • [a2] That exoplanet science is an interdisciplinary field, requiring a great diversity of theories and observations, as well as intermediate steps in support of the ultimate goal ; • [a3] That the field has matured to a point where we can develop an integrated, flexible, and international roadmap towards achieving our goal ; …and therefore recommend : • [r1] As exoplanet space missions play a decisive role, choosing the best ones for the next decade is a critical aspect of the roadmap ; complementarity of the choices to be done by national agencies is essential, with crossed participations whenever possible ; • [r2] Ground programs require existing 10-m class telescopes and future extremely large telescopes : specific instrumentation and observing time is there essential to complement space missions ; • [r3] At least one flagship space mission, which should be defined through broad international collaboration, will ultimately be required for a comprehensive understanding of other habitable worlds in our galactic neighbourhood. ** 23 October 2009 – Towards Other Earths – Porto Final resolution Pathways 20

23 October 2009 – Towards Other Earths – Porto 21