THE LOGISTICAL CHALLENGES OF BREXIT FROM A BRITISH PERSPECTIVE - PROFESSOR ALAN MCKINNON
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
The Logistical Challenges of Brexit from a British Perspective
Professor Alan McKinnon
Kühne Logistics University
Questions and solutions on the effects of Brexit on the logistics industry
Logistics Alliance Germany
25 January 2021
Impact of Customs Checks on Cross-Channel Services
Dover
Dover Straits: 17% of UK total trade in goods 65% of UK-EU RoRo lorry traffic.
average of 7000 trucks per day (rises to 10,000 / day) http://reut.rs/3pl91Ek
pre-Brexit EU trucks around 2.0 minute port transit time
pre-Brexit
cross-Channel traffic at 70% of normal January level Absence (so far) or serious truck gridlock: the reasons
1. Level of economic activity lower: partly due to Covid lockdowns
2. High levels of stockpiling in anticipation of post-Brexit disruptions.
17% of members importing and exporting ‘far less’ due to stockpiling
http://bit.ly/39d9NgU 23% will run low on stocks over the next few weeks
3. Customs problems suppressing level of UK-EU trade:
http://bit.ly/3sU9dfV
150,000 UK businesses trade only with EU - had no experience of customs
5-fold increase in UK customs declarations from 50m to 250m per annum (£7bn cost)
http://on.ft.com/39ZIkPc
Government support has been too late and failed to get business Brexit-ready
https://bit.ly/3myVDdv
Chronic shortage of customs agents: 50,000 more needed
Absence (so far) or serious truck gridlock: the reasons
4. Reduction in logistical capacity on UK – EU routes
EU-based hauliers responsible for 90% for road freight movements on cross-Channel routes http://bit.ly/3pgTWng
Reluctance of carriers to commit vehicles and drivers to cross-Channel routes:
- high congestion risk - bad experience of December 2020 gridlock http://on.ft.com/2Ye0OpI http://bit.ly/2Y8L6Mu
- fear that consignments will have wrong customs paperwork – reports of 5-20% customs errors
- UK-EU traffic imbalance – difficulty of finding backloads exacerbated by Brexit
- UK-EU trade deal reduces opportunities for cabotage – only ‘basic cabotage’ permitted
- poor facilities for drivers held up in long queues (‘Operation Brock’) and lorry holding areas
major carriers suspended services to and from UK https://bit.ly/2Nqd1oS
Jan 2021: business rejection rate on UK routes
now resumed up 168% relative to 3rd quarter of 2020
Freight UK-EU freight rates rising: e.g. 50% increase on UK to France rates relative 3rd quarter or 2020 (Transporeon)
Road haulage supply-side problems likely to worsen as UK-EU freight demands increase
Supply chain disruptions
Scottish seafood exports to EU markets
• highly time-sensitive
• sourced from peripheral location
• food product requires biosecurity checks
• usual customs documentation
Scottish fishing industry protest London 19-1-2021
http://on.ft.com/3qOyxSH
less-than-truck (LTL) / groupage / parcels
many consignments multiple risks of ‘Soft Brexit – there is no such thing. This is horrific…we woke up and realised
errors in customs documentation that this car crash was happening,we thought, oh my God!’ (Andrew Moss, MD of
Horizon (supplier of marketing displays) Observer 24-1-2021 http://bit.ly/39ZkQJS
consolidation of orders from many SMEs ‘it’s absolute carnage out there’ trying to get EU hauliers to come to Britain’
new to customs clearance (Colin Jeffries, Key Cargo International, Guardian 21-1-21) http://bit.ly/3qSIiPE
full-truck-load (FTL)
Single, point-to-point consignments ‘going more smoothly than we feared’ (Alan Jope, CEO Unilever) BBC radio 21/1/2021
easier, more robust customs process ‘For a global manufacturer... to have additional documentation, to fill a form at the
border is nothing. People prepared for it, we have updated our software, we have
larger businesses generating full loads, updated our processes. It’s OK (Ashwani Gupta, COO Nissan, Reuters 22/1/2021)’
experienced + well-prepared for customs http://reut.rs/2MlPAN0
UK post-Brexit logistics: mapping the inter-relationships
customs and
biosecurity checks
lack of customs agents
truck queues at
ports
burden and confusion of non-compliant customs
customs paperwork + other documentation
lack of T1 financial shortage of haulage supply chain delays
guarantees capacity
stockpiling –
increasing freight rates temporary buffer
tariffs on non-
retail stock-outs
EU / non-UK contraction of UK-EU trade
disrupted production
products
short-term ‘teething problems’ or fundamental failures requiring trade realignment and logistical restructuring?
Professor Alan McKinnon
Kühne Logistics University – the KLU
Wissenschaftliche Hochschule für Logistik und Unternehmensführung
Grosser Grasbrook 17
20457 Hamburg
tel.: +49 40 328707-271
fax: +49 40 328707-109
e-mail: Alan.McKinnon@the-klu.org Blogs about Brexit logistics
website: www.the-klu.org
www.alanmckinnon.co.uk https://www.alanmckinnon.co.uk/blog/?p=280
@alancmckinnon
You can also read
