VERSION 3.0 A Review of COVID -19 Statistics Week ending November 8, 2020 - Saskatoon.ca
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A Review of COVID -19 Statistics
Week ending November 8, 2020
VERSION 3.0
Table A shows various COVID statistics by Saskatchewan Health Zones. Saskatchewan changed its reporting format, so this table reflects the
newly created health zones. Saskatchewan Health advises that new zones should not be compared to the older zones as the boundaries have
changed. The table shows both cases counts (the raw numbers as reported) and rates adjusted for 10,000 population in each zone. It also shows
testing data, and the rates are adjusted to 100,000 persons in this data set. The reason for the adjustments is to show per capita comparisons on
the various indicators. Unfortunately, Saskatchewan also saw three new COVID fatalities over the last week.
Table A: Saskatchewan COVID-19 Data by Health Zone ( as of November 8, 2020)
Source: https://dashboard.saskatchewan.ca/health-wellness
Location Demographics Cases Hospitalizations Recoveries Fatalities Tests***
Region Population Share of Total Cases Total Case Active Active Case Inpatient ICU Recovered¹ Deaths Death Total Tests Test Rate** Test Positivity
Estimates (2019) Population (%) Rate* Cases Rate* Hospitalizations Hospitalizations Rate * Rate (%)
Far North West 29,866 2 419 140.3 42 14.1 1 0 368 9 3.0 8,562 28,668 4.9
Far North Central 2,662 0 4 15.0 4 15.0 0 0 0 0 0.0 467 17,543 0.9
Far North East 24,195 2 61 25.2 23 9.5 0 0 38 0 0.0 5,278 21,814 1.2
North West 77,235 6 263 34.1 91 11.8 2 0 168 4 0.5 15,571 20,161 1.7
North Central 80,547 7 416 51.6 197 24.5 7 1 217 2 0.2 21,140 26,246 2.0
North East 42,260 4 164 38.8 47 11.1 0 0 116 1 0.2 9,716 22,991 1.7
Saskatoon 334,757 28 1,053 31.5 362 10.8 9 4 688 3 0.1 82,653 24,690 1.3
Central West 37,696 3 199 52.8 4 1.1 0 0 194 1 0.3 6,561 17,405 3.0
Central East 99,982 8 228 22.8 59 5.9 0 0 168 1 0.1 19,532 19,536 1.2
Regina 273,287 23 548 20.1 227 8.3 5 2 319 2 0.1 57,159 20,915 1.0
South West 39,541 3 238 60.2 8 2.0 1 0 229 1 0.3 7,540 19,069 3.2
South Central 61,803 5 225 36.4 15 2.4 0 0 206 4 0.6 13,244 21,429 1.7
South East 91,100 8 71 7.8 35 3.8 0 0 36 0 0.0 14,805 16,251 0.5
Total Saskatchewan 1,194,931 100 3,897 32.6 1114 9.3 25 7 2747 28 0.2 262,228 21,945 1.5
Notes:
* indicates rates are per 10,000 persons
** indicates rates are per 100,000 persons
*** there are 19,288 tests that do not have a specific location and are not included in the total.
The tables on this slide show the composition of cases by health zone and the change in weekly cases both in absolute terms and
adjusted for population (for every 100,000 persons). The Saskatoon zone has the highest share of total cases and active cases. The Far
North West Zone has highest share of deaths. Saskatchewan saw 658 new cases over the last week, the location of three cases are
pending and are not include in the table on the right. This is the largest weekly increase since COVID emerged. Saskatoon led the way
with 226 new cases in the past week, or 68 per 100,000 persons.
Share of Total Share of Share of Weekly Case Weekly
Health Zone Health Zone
Cases (%) Active Cases Deaths (%) Change Cases/100,000
Far North West 28 94
Far North West 10.8 3.8 32.1
Far North Central 4 150
Far North Central 0.1 0.4 0.0
Far North East 7 29
Far North East 1.6 2.1 0.0
North West 61 79
North West 6.7 8.2 14.3 100 124
North Central
North Central 10.7 17.7 7.1 North East 25 59
North East 4.2 4.2 3.6 Saskatoon 226 68
Saskatoon 27.0 32.5 10.7 Central West 3 8
Central West 5.1 0.4 3.6 Central East 41 41
Regina 133 49
Central East 5.9 5.3 3.6
South West 8 20
Regina 14.1 20.4 7.1
South Central 10 16
South West 6.1 0.7 3.6
South East 12 13
South Central 5.8 1.3 14.3 658 55
Total Saskatchewan
South East 1.8 3.1 0.0
Green = < 5
Yellow = Between 5 and 7
Red = > 7
This slide estimates the Effective Reproduction Number (Rt) for Saskatchewan. A few points to note here. (1) The dates are lagged because Rt uses recent case history to estimate the infection rate that caused them, referred to as the “presumed transmission date”. This date occurs about 7 days prior to reporting of new cases. (2) An Rt above 1 means that COVID-19 is growing exponentially. An Rt below 1 means that cases will eventually die out. (3) Rt is based on the SEIR epidemiological model with assumptions. I use the Cori, et.al method to determine the Rt (described here: https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwt133). (4) The Rt is estimated as the mean using 95% confidence intervals. The lower and upper bound estimates reflect the confidence interval.
In August, Saskatoon City Council adopted various statistical measures to monitor the spread of COVID-19 in the Saskatoon Zone.
The measures are: (1) the effective reproduction rate (Rt)-see previous slide for an explanation; (2) Weekly Cases/100,000; and (3)
the weekly test positivity rate. This slide summarizes these measures as of November 1, 2020. The Rt is sitting at 1.11. Weekly
cases/100,000 are red as they are greater than 7 cases per 100,000 persons, at 69. The test positivity rate has spiked to 4.9% for the
weekly average. (Note: the test positivity colour coding has been corrected).
Saskatoon Zone Indicators
(weekly cases/ 100,000 & test positivity rate)
Weekly cases/100,000 Test Positivity Rate %
Week Ending
persons (7 day Average)
8/10/2020 6 0.8
8/17/2020 7 1
8/24/2020 1 0.2
8/31/2020 3 0.4
9/6/2020 4 0.5
9/13/2020 8 0.8
9/20/2020 14 1.1
9/27/2020 10 0.7
10/4/2020 6 0.5
10/12/2020 11 0.8
10/18/2020 15 0.7
10/25/2020 43 3.3
11/1/2020 61 3.5
11/8/2020 69 4.9
Legend:
W eeky Cases/100,000 Test Positivity Rate
Less than 5 Less than 2.0%
Between 5 and 7 Between 2.0% and 5.0%
Greater than 7 Greater than 5%
The charts on this slide show various case distributions. The chart on the left shows the share of cases by age cohorts. The 20-39 age cohort has the largest share of cases at almost 37%. The share of cases 19& under are at their highest level, over 20%. Unfortunately, Saskatchewan no longer reports time series data by age cohort so the trend analysis cannot be conducted at this time. The chart on right shows how the cases are transmitted. Mass gatherings account for most of the way in which cases have been contracted. It should be noted that 20% or 793 cases are under investigation as to the source.
The charts on this slide show total hospitalizations by province since March and by zone since August. The chart on the left shows total hospitalizations for Saskatchewan since the first reported on March 26. As the chart shows, the number of persons hospitalized in the province due to COVID are at their highest point on November 1. The chart on the right shows total hospitalizations composed by each zone since the new reporting framework in August. The majority of hospitalizations are in the Saskatoon zone (the brown bar).
This slide shows Saskatchewan’s case growth using the new reporting dates. Note that the dates go back to August 4 when the province implemented new reporting zones. The chart on the left shows daily cases smoothed by a 7 day moving average to show the trend cycle (the grey line). The chart on the right illustrates the Saskatchewan’s epidemic curve as composed by each health zone shown in table A (slide 2). The next slide shows the case pattern in the aggregate zones (e.g., Central or North).
This slide shows panel charts using the different scales on the y-axis to show daily case growth and the 7 day trend for Saskatchewan zones since August 4th. In this slide, I aggregate the smaller zones into larger geographic zones to better illustrate data trends . Daily case data is messy, so the goal here is to show the individual case trends relative to each zone . The green line is the one to pay attention to as it shows the peaks or outbreaks in the zones over time. Note that the y-axis uses different scales to show the shape of the case trends relative to each aggregate zone. A future update will show a per capita comparison on a using similar scales for each aggregate zone.
This slide shows Saskatchewan’s testing numbers. He chart on the left shows daily tests smoothed by a 7 day moving average to show the trend cycle (the grey line). Saskatchewan had record testing on October 27 at over 3300 persons tested. The testing trend line is now averaging almost 2,100 tests per day. According to the Saskatchewan Heath Authority, testing capacity is 4,000 per day. The chart on the right shows Saskatchewan’s test positivity rate, expressed as percent, using a 7-day moving average. This measures the number of positive infections relative to the number of persons tested.
This slide builds off the previous one and shows daily tests by aggregated zones using the new dates and zones. It smooths the data by using a seven day moving average. Again, each chart uses a different y-axis to better show testing patterns in the specific zone. Saskatoon is averaging about 800 tests per day.
NATIONAL COMPARISONS
Table B shows various COVID-19 characteristics for all provinces in Canada. It should be noted that the jurisdictions have been
resorted relative to previous versions. The table groups demographic, case, and testing data in their own columns. The table is
constructed similar to Table A at the beginning of the deck in that it uses counts and rates. Note that some provinces do not report
cases on the weekend so the numbers coincide with the most recent reporting dates. See the notes below for additional context.
Also, testing numbers for Saskatchewan will differ from those listed in Table A, due to different test reporting requirements at the
Public Health Agency of Canada.
Table B: Areas in Canada with Cases of COVID-19 ( as of November 8, 2020)
Source: https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html
Population# Total Cases Active cases Recoveries Deaths Tested
Test Positivity
Case Location Count Share (%) Count Rate* Count Rate* Count Count Rate* Count Rate**
Rate (%)
British Columbia 5,147,712 13.5 17,716 344 4,405 86 13,035 276 5 652,024 126,663 2.7
Alberta 4,421,876 11.6 33,504 758 8,457 191 24,684 363 8 1,295,038 292,871 2.6
Saskatchewan 1,178,681 3.1 3,897 331 1,122 95 2,747 28 2 221,644 188,044 1.8
Manitoba 1,379,263 3.6 8,130 589 4,849 352 3,175 106 8 270,689 196,256 3.0
Ontario 14,734,014 38.8 84,153 571 9,105 62 71,815 3,233 22 5,206,568 353,371 1.6
Quebec 8,574,571 22.6 114,820 1,339 10,591 124 97,789 6,440 75 1,965,445 229,218 5.8
Newfoundland and Labrador 522,103 1.4 297 57 7 1 286 4 1 54,686 104,742 0.5
New Brunswick 781,476 2.1 354 45 24 3 324 6 1 87,272 111,676 0.4
Nova Scotia 979,351 2.6 1,128 115 20 2 1,043 65 7 118,072 120,561 1.0
Prince Edward Island 159,625 0.4 66 41 2 1 64 0 0 50,748 317,920 0.1
Yukon 42,052 0.1 23 55 2 5 20 1 2 4,164 99,020 0.6
Northwest Territories 45,161 0.1 10 22 2 4 10 0 0 5,656 125,241 0.2
Nunavut 39,353 0.1 2 0 0 0 5 0 0 3,139 79,765 0.1
Repatriated travellers N/A N/A 13 N/A 0 N/A 13 0 N/A 76 N/A 17.1
Canada 38,005,238 100 264,113 695 38,586 102 215,010 10,522 28 9,935,221 261,417 2.7
Notes:
# as of Q3, 2020, from Statistics Canada Table 17-10-0009-01
Rate* = per 100,000 populaiton
Rate** = per 1,000,000 populationThis slide adjusts two data sets for population. The map chart shows total COVID-19 cases by province and territory per 100,000 persons. The colour gradient illustrates the case intensity. Ontario, by far, has the strongest case intensity, followed by Quebec and Alberta. The second chart show the change in weekly cases/ per 100,000 persons. Using this data set Saskatchewan had 57.4 cases/100,000 over the last week, higher than both BC and Ontario. (Note the Saskatchewan number differs from earlier slides due to population count differences between Sask Health and Statistics Canada). Manitoba saw another large surge of new cases with a weekly rate of 152 cases/per 100,000.
This slide shows the percent share of cases in the provinces and territories relative to the total. As of November 8, 2020, Quebec has the largest share of total cases, active cases, and accounts for almost two-thirds of all deaths. In fact, over 90% of the COVID-19 deaths in Canada are from Ontario and Quebec.
This slide uses a panel chart and time series to illustrate COVID case growth in provinces that have had more than 1,000 cases (except for Nova Scotia). Because daily cases are not reported consistently and the data is messy, for these charts, daily cases are eliminated but case growth is smoothed by a 7-day rolling average to show trend. The times series starts on April 1, 2020 for each province. Note that each has different y-axis scales to illustrate each province’s unique challenges with COVID. This better illustrates the shapes of the curve. The next slide scales the y-axis for comparative purposes and includes scaled case data.
This slide builds off the previous one and attempts show intensity of cases. Here, the case data is scaled by cases/per million, using a time series to illustrate daily COVID case growth in provinces that have had more than 1,000 cases. The case growth is smoothed by a 7-day rolling average to show trend. I have eliminated the daily numbers as some provinces do not report on weekends. When adjusted for population and using a consistent scale, the case patterns change relative to the previous slide. The time series starts on April 1 for every province.
This slide shows cumulative cases in selected Canadian provinces (and nationally) since COVID-19 first emerged in March. November 8th marks day 258 of when the virus was officially confirmed in Canada and started to spread. The left chart shows unadjusted case growth. The second chart uses a log scale with a base of 10 in attempt to better illustrate the pace of growth. Note that using the log scale changes the case pattern and each province is more visible. For example, at day 160, the surge in Manitoba cases is visible in this chart. Similarly, day 210 shows a visible increase in Saskatchewan’s cases.
QUESTIONS, COMMENTS OR
SUGGESTIONS?
email: mike.jordan@Saskatoon.caYou can also read
