Storm Summary for Hurricane Arthur
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Storm Summary for Hurricane Arthur Thursday, July 03, 2014 at 5 AM EDT (Output from Hurrevac, based on National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory #10) Arthur is currently a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (65 kts), moving north at 11 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the storm center. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the storm center. Certain coastal locations are under Hurricane Warning, Hurricane Watch, and Tropical Storm Warning. The geographic extents of these watches and warnings are detailed in the advisory text at the end of this report.
Wind Analysis for Currituck, NC
(Based upon Hurricane ARTHUR Advisory #10)
Wind Probabilities
Norfolk, VA, the closest reporting location, has within the 5-day forecast period of this advisory, a 3%
chance of at least strong tropical storm-force (50kt/58mph) winds, and a 31% chance of at least tropical
storm-force (34kt/39mph) winds.
Peak Wind*
Winds in Currituck, NC are projected to peak at 49kt/56mph around 6 AM on Friday, July 04, 2014
Wind Arrival and Duration*
Tropical storm-force winds (34kt/39mph) are forecast to begin in Currituck, NC on Friday, July 04, 2014
at 2 AM. Winds of this magnitude or higher are forecast to continue for 9 hours.
50kt/58mph winds are not forecast for Currituck, NC.
64kt/74mph winds are not forecast for Currituck, NC.
* These wind estimations are limited to the first 72 hours (3 days) following advisory issuance, and are
subject to considerable forecast uncertainty and generalization, especially if the storm is distant.
Maximum sustained winds (the highest surface wind maintained over a 1 minute period) are reported
here. Wind gusts and winds at higher elevations will be greater.
Storm Summary for Hurricane Arthur #10 - Page 2WTNT31 KNHC 030849
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014
...ARTHUR NOW A HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.3N 79.1W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD FROM DUCK NORTH
CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE
LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY
REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING
AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.
Storm Summary for Hurricane Arthur #10 - Page 3FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED BY HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NOAA DOPPLER RADARS NEAR
LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.
DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75
MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN
THE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...2 TO 4 FT
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 3 FT
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 2 FT
THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE
SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE UPPER COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA.
Storm Summary for Hurricane Arthur #10 - Page 4TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS FROM THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH CAROLINA. THESE
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
WTNT41 KNHC 030859
HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014
Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Arthur has reached hurricane strength. Both aircraft
showed several SFMR winds of 60 to 63 kt southeast of the center,
and the NOAA aircraft reported a peak flight-level wind of 79 kt at
8,000 feet. Based on these data the initial intensity is set to 65
kt. Radar data show that Arthur was still having difficulty
maintaining an eyewall overnight, likely due to dry mid/upper-level
air being entrained into the storm. However, the overall radar
presentation has improved during the past couple of hours. Some
gradual intensification is forecast during the next 24 hours while
the cyclone is in an environment of low shear and moves over warm
waters. After that time, however, the shear increases dramatically
as Arthur interacts with a deep-layer baroclinic zone moving off
of the east coast of North America, and global model fields show
Arthur completing extratropical transition by 72 hours. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and remains close
to the multi-model consensus IVCN through 24 hours and is a little
below the consensus after that time.
Radar data and aircraft fixes indicate that the current motion is
now a little east of due north, or 010 degrees at 8 knots. Arthur
should begin to recurve today ahead of the aforementioned deep-layer
trough, and the track model guidance is in good agreement on this
scenario. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and
remains near the middle of the dynamical model envelope and close
to the TVCA multi-model consensus. The official forecast shows the
center of Arthur moving very close to the North Carolina Outer Banks
late tonight and early Friday. Arthur should then accelerate
northeastward offshore of the mid-Atlantic states and the
northeastern U.S. Friday and Friday night, and move into the
Canadian Maritimes by Saturday before turning northward by the end
of the period.
The track, intensity, and wind radii forecast during the
extratropical phase of Arthur have been coordinated with the Ocean
Storm Summary for Hurricane Arthur #10 - Page 5Prediction Center.
The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is
available at: www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0900Z 31.3N 79.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 32.5N 78.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 34.7N 76.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 37.5N 72.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 40.9N 67.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 47.5N 60.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 07/0600Z 54.0N 52.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 08/0600Z 60.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Brennan
Storm Summary for Hurricane Arthur #10 - Page 6You can also read
