Storm Summary for Hurricane Arthur
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Storm Summary for Hurricane Arthur Thursday, July 03, 2014 at 5 PM EDT (Output from Hurrevac, based on National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory #12) Arthur is currently a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph (80 kts), moving north-northeast at 19 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the storm center. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the storm center. Certain coastal locations are under Hurricane Warning, Hurricane Watch, and Tropical Storm Warning. The geographic extents of these watches and warnings are detailed in the advisory text at the end of this report.
Wind Analysis for Currituck, NC
(Based upon Hurricane ARTHUR Advisory #12)
Wind Probabilities
Norfolk, VA, the closest reporting location, has within the 5-day forecast period of this advisory, a 1%
chance of hurricane-force (64kt/74mph or greater) winds, a 7% chance of at least strong tropical
storm-force (50kt/58mph) winds, and a 61% chance of at least tropical storm-force (34kt/39mph) winds.
Peak Wind*
Winds in Currituck, NC are projected to peak at 65kt/75mph around 4 AM on Friday, July 04, 2014
Wind Arrival and Duration*
Tropical storm-force winds (34kt/39mph) are forecast to begin in Currituck, NC on Thursday, July 03,
2014 at 11 PM. Winds of this magnitude or higher are forecast to continue for 10 hours.
Strong tropical storm-force winds (50kt/58mph) are forecast to begin in Currituck, NC on Friday, July 04,
2014 at 2 AM. Winds of this magnitude or higher are forecast to continue for 5 hours.
Hurricane-force winds (64kt/74mph) are forecast to begin in Currituck, NC on Friday, July 04, 2014 at 4
AM. Winds of this magnitude or higher are forecast to continue for 1 hours.
* These wind estimations are limited to the first 72 hours (3 days) following advisory issuance, and are
subject to considerable forecast uncertainty and generalization, especially if the storm is distant.
Maximum sustained winds (the highest surface wind maintained over a 1 minute period) are reported
here. Wind gusts and winds at higher elevations will be greater.
Storm Summary for Hurricane Arthur #12 - Page 2WTNT31 KNHC 032054
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014
...EYE OF ARTHUR NEARING THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.4N 77.9W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NANTUCKET ISLAND
AND FOR CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO CHATHAM.
ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NOVA
SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD TO POINT ACONI.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
* NANTUCKET
* CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO CHATHAM
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO POINT ACONI
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. ANY UNEXPECTED DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE
LEFT...OR AN EXPANSION OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS INTO THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE STORM...WOULD BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS TO THE
COAST IN THE WATCH AREA.
Storm Summary for Hurricane Arthur #12 - Page 3A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...NOVA
SCOTIA...AND NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON FRIDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR
OR OVER THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT.
THE CENTER OF ARTHUR IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE MID-ALANTIC
COAST FRIDAY AND APPROACH NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WHEN
IT PASSES OVER OR NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. ARTHUR IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL CYLONE SATURDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES...240 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SPREAD NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT. HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BEGINNING THIS
EVENING. ANY UNEXPECTED DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN
EXPANSION OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF
THE STORM...WOULD BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS TO THE COAST IN THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
Storm Summary for Hurricane Arthur #12 - Page 4NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 3 FT
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 3 FT
THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE
SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE UPPER COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS
OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS FROM THE
COAST OF GEORGIA NORTHWARD TO NORTH CAROLINA. THESE SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...700 PM EDT AND 900 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
WWWW
WTNT41 KNHC 032100
HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014
The eye of Arthur has become more distinct in visible satellite
imagery this afternoon, although the overall radar presentation has
changed very little. The latest flight-level and SFMR wind
observations are 84 kt and 82 kt respectively. These data support
maintaining the 80-kt initial intensity. Environmental conditions
are expected to remain conducive for strengthening during the next
12 to 18 hours and Arthur is still forecast to reach category two
intensity as it nears the North Carolina coast. Vertical shear is
forecast to increase significantly by Friday night and weakening
should commence by that time. Arthur is expected to interact with
an approaching deep-layer trough and should become a post-tropical
cyclone within 48 hours. Steady weakening is anticipated after
Arthur becomes post-tropical.
Storm Summary for Hurricane Arthur #12 - Page 5Aircraft and radar fixes indicate that the initial motion is 020
degrees at 11 kt, a little faster than before. Arthur is expected
to turn northeastward and accelerate ahead of a deep-layer trough
that will move into the eastern United States during the next day
or so. Although the models still remain in good agreement on the
track of Arthur during the next couple of days, there has been a
westward shift this cycle. The new NHC track has been shifted
westward and lies between the GFS and ECMWF models through 36
hours. The updated track now shows landfall in eastern North
Carolina or the Outer Banks later tonight. Beyond 36 hours, the
NHC track has been adjusted about a degree westward, but it is not
as far west as the GFS and ECMWF model trackers.
While in most cases this westward shift in the track will be
immaterial to impacts, it does mean that the hurricane's strongest
winds are now more likely to be experienced along the Outer Banks,
rather than remain offshore.
NHC public advisories will be issued every two hours beginning at 7
pm EDT this evening and Tropical Cyclone Updates will be issued
on the hour between each Public Advisory to provide hourly position
updates.
The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is
available at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/2100Z 33.4N 77.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 35.3N 76.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 38.2N 72.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 41.9N 68.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 45.2N 64.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 06/1800Z 50.4N 56.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 07/1800Z 56.5N 47.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 08/1800Z 60.0N 37.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Brown
WWWW
Storm Summary for Hurricane Arthur #12 - Page 6You can also read
