Foresight & Open Innovation at Volkswagen - An approach: Combining the Scenario & Information Market Methods
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Foresight & Open Innovation at Volkswagen An approach: Combining the Scenario & Information Market Methods Caroline V. Rudzinski, AutoUni – Volkswagen AG
FRAMING
Theoretical approach
and understanding
INSIGHTS
Volkswagen project
2
Interference Circle
Innovations
influence
INNOVATION
the future.
„the New“
Expectations
STRATEGY
of the future
„the Frame“ influence the
actuel decisions
(Backcasting)
Short term Organization Long term
(secure existence)
3
Interdependence of Innovation Future Strategy
Crowd Funding
3D-Printer (Mass Customization)
Connectivity
(Gamification)
Source: kickstarter
Interference Circle
Innovations
influence
INNOVATION
the future.
„the New“
Expectations
STRATEGY
of the future
„the Frame“ influence the
actuel decisions
(Backcasting)
Short term Organization Long term
(secure existence)
5
Strategic Foresight
“It is also about knowing where to look more
carefully for clues, how to interpret the weak
signals, and how to act when the signals are still
ambiguous.”
George S. Day & Paul J.H. Schoemaker
Stand: 04.12.2014 Abteilung: K-SE-6 6
Organizational challenges
“Most organizations lack sufficient capacity to detect, interpret and act on the
critically important but weak and ambiguous signals of fresh threats or new
opportunities that emerge on the periphery of their usual business
environment.”
George S. Day & Paul J.H. Schoemaker
7
Volkswagen Future Affairs & Trendtransfer: Supporting Strategy &
Innovation by Foresight
8
Competence of the AutoUni
Based on innovative methods and formats the AutoUni provides access to relevant knowledge in
cooperation with top level universities/institutions and experts worldwide.
Advisory
Departe-
Board
ment
(Experts)
Knowledge generation Universities, technical
Volkswagen Group Knowledge transfer colleges and research
Knowledge supply establishments
9
The approach: The Volkswagen Project
Interference Circle
Innovations
influence
INNOVATION the future.
„the New“
Expectations
STRATEGY
of the future
„the New“ influence the
actuel decisions
(Backcasting)
Short term Organization Long term
(secure existence)
11Interference Circle
INNOVATION
„the New“
Oscillation
between the two
contrary poles
Different characteristics contributes to
ensure the
company's
survival
STRATEGY
„the New“
Short term Organization Long term
(secure existence)
12Combination of the Wind Tunneling Approach with the Information Market
Method
Wind Tunneling Information Market
Wisdom of the Market
crowd Infor- mechanism
can lead to better mation aggregates
+ estimations than
asking a single
Markte knowledge
efficiently
person
„…knowing where to look…“: „…how to act …“:
Identifying relevant future fields Aggregation and transparency of the
Wisdom of the crowd
= FOCUS = DIFFUSION2. Phase:
Identifying consistent
1. Phase:
strategic options by
Creating four Scenarios
"Wind Tunneling"
approach
3. Phase:
Identification of 4. Phase:
promising fields for
future innovation using Decision on strategy
Open Innovation and top innovations
approachIdentifying relevant future fields and strategic options via the Wind
Tunneling approach
Plane: Own strategy
Wind: Robustness check
(best fit strategies)
Tunnel: Environmental scenariosIdentifying consistent strategic options by using scenario "Wind Tunneling"
Environmental scenarios
Key Strategic options
Factors
Key
factors
Projections
Projections
Scenario 1
Consistent
strategic option
for scenario 1
Matching between scenarios and strategic options
Identification of consistent and robust strategy
Gap analysis for current strategyBased on the results from the “Wind Tunneling phase”, relevant future fields of innovation have been identified and via an Open Innovation approach the “crowd” was invited to give their input.
The Open Innovation Approach: Information Markets
Process overview
Selection “Jury”
Defining relevant questions
Screening “Selection Board”
Winning idea(s)
Top 10 ideas
Idea generation & evaluationThe Open Innovation Approach: Information markets
Information markets effectively pool the “wisdom of the crowd” through a virtual “stock exchange”
Each participant receives
play money and can “bet“
on good ideas.
The provider of top ideas,
comments and the best
Each participant may
traders will be rewarded.
bring his own idea(s)
to the market.
Participants can
comment on ideas.Outcome
Strategic Options
Critical success factors were identified.
Identification of consistent and robust strategy.
All departments of the Group Research participated on the Information
Market.
136 ideas, 250 comments and 2642 trades.
Relevant strategic issues were placed across the organization.
The winning ideas are being further elaborated.Information market: Knowledge is made transparent across departments • New insights into complex issues. • Access to otherwise unconsidered input. • Possibility to easily localize experts with relevant insights. • Evaluation of the potential success of the implementation of the ideas.
Information market encourages the innovative capacity of companies
Transaction data of the Information Markets.
Colors according organizational unit.Combining the Strategic Foresight and Open Innovation approach is able
to generate strategic insights/value and to establish a long term
perspective on strategy, embedded within an iterative learning cycle on
strategy and innovation.
It enabled a
• structured and transparent, bottom-up
and top-down analysis,
• qualified discussion on different
consistent possible future strategies and
future innovations and
• it also provided the basis for identifying
white spots within the current research
agenda.It is about anticipating future development,
by having a plan (strategy),
but also about knowing how to act (innovation)
24Thank you. Caroline V. Rudzinski AutoUni VOLKSWAGEN AG caroline.rudzinski@volkswagen.de
Learning
Prozess enablers
The process must be plural, • Make the process transparent
engaging and focused. • Outputs tailored to be relevant
• Supported by top to corporate strategy.
management. • Iterative.
• Allocated sufficient resource • Integrated into planning
and capacity. • Clear objectives.
• Sufficiently broad to generate process.
• Cross functional teams. • Established audience.
• Embedded with business units. new thinking.
• Accepting of multiple futures.
• Consultative: Internally and
externally.
Implementation enablers
Organisational enablers
The implementation must be
Futures thinking must be owned
strategic and sufficiently
and adequately supported.
embedded.
Stand: 04.12.2014 Abteilung: K-SE-6 27Combining Foresight and Open Innovation fosters a vigilant organizational
mind-set.
Input of the crowd to
Defining a relevant
consistence future fields
strategy
It is characterized by
• the ability to “think outside the box” (peripheral vision)
• resources/capacity devoted to long-term strategy making
Stand: 04.12.2014 Abteilung: K-SE-6 28Stand: 04.12.2014 Abteilung: K-SE-6 29
Organization
XXX
Secure Existence.
30The wisdom of the crowd – at Volkswagen App my Ride Open idea contest for development of apps for car infotainment (2010): 385 ideas (from 104 persons), 96 apps (from 49 persons), 528 participants, 1991 evaluations, 1283 messages, 1448 comments Idea contest “Think Blue. Ideas.” On the Think Blue internet platform people could contribute ideas that represent the Think Blue philosophy and concern the issue of sustainability. People’s Car Project Chinese internet users could bring their ideas about how a car of the future might look via the “People‘s Car Project“ internet platform. Information Market Employees of the Group Research were able to contribute ideas and comments to, and evaluations of, strategically relevant questions.
Function of Strategy
“Leaders establish the vision for the future and set the
strategy for getting there.”
John P. Kotter
“You’ve got to thinkabout big things while
you’re doing small things, so that all the small
things go in the right direction.”
Alvin Toffler
“The essence of strategy is
choosing what not to do. ”
Michael E. Porter
Stand: 04.12.2014 Abteilung: K-SE-6 32Identifying relevant future fields an strategic options via the Wind
Tunneling approach
Plane: Own strategy
Der Wind Tunneling Ansatz als
dynamische Strategieentwicklung in Wind: Robustness check
(best fit strategies)
Abhängigkeit von zukünftig denkbaren
Umfeldentwicklungen:
Eigene Strategieoptionen –definiert durch
erfolgskritische Schlüsselfelder—werden
einem „Stresstest“ unterzogen.
Es wird überprüfen, wie das Unternehmen
für die möglichen Zukunftsentwicklungen
aufgestellt ist und ob an der Strategie ggf.
nachjustieren werden muss.
Tunnel: Environmental scenariosThe Open Innovation Approach supports structures for a “Learning
Organization”
“Open Innovation means that valuable ideas can come from inside or outside
the company can go to market from inside or outside the company as well. This
approach places external ideas and external paths to market on the same level
of importance as that reserved for internal ideas and paths to market during the
Closed Innovation era.”
Henry Chesbrough
Caroline V. RudzinskiKeep the organization „on the go“
in The Open
order Innovation
to ensure Approach supports structures for a “Learning
progress:
Organization”
Maintenance of routine
while opening up for new
“Open
things Innovation
and means that valuable ideas can come from inside or outside
questioning
the company can go to market from inside or outside the company as well. This
existing options.
approach places external ideas and external paths to market on the same level
of importance as that reserved for internal ideas and paths to market during the
Closed Innovation era.”
BUT:
Henry Chesbrough
What are the relevant (new)
fields/options to question?The power of Open Innovation
Crowd Sourcing 855
Personen
Quelle: Quirky
Stand: 04.12.2014 Abteilung: K-SE-6 36Stand: 04.12.2014 Abteilung: K-SE-6 37
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