Webinar Series Impacts and Issues for GTA Members - 6 May 2020 - Grain Trade Australia
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Webinar Series Impacts and Issues for GTA Members 6 May 2020 ©2020 Grant Thornton Australia Limited. All rights reserved.
Political Landscape and Overview Pat O'Shannassy CEO Grain Trade Australia 2 ©2020 Grant Thornton Australia Limited. All rights reserved.
Covid19
Industry Functioning relatively smoothly – risk matrix
Process now in place for flexibility & smooth(er)
documentation
ABARES consultation – domestic food issues
Barley AD date - 19th May
China Bi-lateral relationship getting more complicated
GTA Training via Webinars – upcoming inc Export Docs
course and Advisory Compliance Day
AGIC going virtual – “AGIC Live!”
Communication Continues
3
WEBINAR: GRAIN TRADE AUSTRALIA COVID – 19 SERIES JOBKEEPER – FAIR WORK ACT 2009 (CTH) AMENDMENTS DANIKA PARMAR T: +61 2 9320 4663 E: Danika.Parmar@hfw.com
GRAIN TRADE AUSTRALIA: COVID-19 WEBINAR SERIES
JOBKEEPER ENABLING DIRECTIONS
Stand down directions Duties directions Location directions
• Employer may direct an • Direction to perform alternative • Direction to work in an alternative
employee: duties location (e.g. home)
• not to work on particular days
• to work a lesser period on • Direction can be given to an • Direction can be given where:
particular day/s employee where: • the alternative location is
• to reduce ordinary hours • the alternative duties are within suitable for the employee to
(including to nil) the skills and competencies of perform their duties;
the employee; • the employee is not required to
• Direction can be given where an • where required, the employee is travel an unreasonable
employee cannot be usefully licensed and qualified to distance; and
employed for their normal days perform those duties; • it is safe for the employee to
and/or hours of work because of • the duties are reasonably within perform the duties at the
changes to the business the scope of the employer’s alternative location
attributable to COVID-19 business operations; and
• it is safe for the employee to
perform the alternative duties
5
GRAIN TRADE AUSTRALIA: COVID-19 WEBINAR SERIES
PROCESS OF ISSUING A JOBKEEPER ENABLING DIRECTION
Employer must give Employer must then
3 days (or a lesser consult with the
Must be satisfied period by The JobKeeper
employee about the The JobKeeper
that the employee agreement) written enabling direction is
proposed direction. enabling direction
is entitled to one or notice of intention reasonable in all of
The employer must given to the
more JobKeeper to issue a the circumstances
keep a written employee in writing
payments JobKeeper enabling record of
direction consultation
6
GRAIN TRADE AUSTRALIA: COVID-19 WEBINAR SERIES
RIGHTS OF EMPLOYEES SUBJECT TO A DIRECTION
Must accrue leave
Notify a dispute
entitlements as if
before the Fair Work
direction had not
Commission
been given
Redundancy pay and
payment in lieu of
Minimum payment
notice of termination
guarantee and base
must be calculated as
rate of pay guarantee
if direction had not
been given
May request
secondary
employment, training
and/or professional
development which
cannot be
unreasonably refused
7
GRAIN TRADE AUSTRALIA: COVID-19 WEBINAR SERIES
JOBKEEPER: OTHER NOTEWORTHY PROVISIONS
•Employer may request an employee entitled to •Employer may request an employee entitled to
JobKeeper payments to make an agreement to receive JobKeeper payments to take annual
work on different days or at different times leave
•Employee must not unreasonably refuse a •Employee must not unreasonably refuse this
request to make an agreement request where the employee retains a leave
balance of at least 2 weeks
•The new arrangements must be safe, within
the scope of the employer’s business •Employer an employee can agree to leave
operations and must not result in a reduction in being taken at half pay
the employee’s ordinary hours (this can only be
achieved under a stand down direction)
Agreement to work on
different days and at Annual leave
different times
8
Cashflow management
John McInerney
Partner, Financial Advisory
Grant Thornton Australia
9 ©2020 Grant Thornton Australia Limited. All rights reserved.
Why Important?
Estimates timing of cash in and out of a business
Helps predict surpluses or shortages of cash
Allows a business owner to make informed decisions
around:
• Securing a business loan
• New equipment purchases
• Payment of taxes.
10 ©2020 Grant Thornton Australia Limited. All rights reserved.Short Term Cash Flow – Queries & Prompts
1. 13 week forecast considered
best practice
2. Prepare on a weekly basis
3. Make it easy to ‘roll forward’
4. Present in a detailed 'receipts
and payments' format
5. Consider balance sheet
accruals, if payments deferred
11 ©2020 Grant Thornton Australia Limited. All rights reserved.COVID-19 & AGRI UPDATE
May 2020
Michael Whitehead – FBA InsightsCOVID-19 SITUATION UPDATE
13
Source: Financial TimesCOMMODITY PRICE FALL
14
Commodity price indicators
Values rebased to 02nd Jan 2020
Wheat (6%) Corn (18%) Barley (11%) Rough Rice 12% Soybean (11%) Milk (27%) Sugar (21%)
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
Wheat: (CBOT) contract price
80 Corn: (CBOT) contract price
Barley: (ASX) contract price
Rice: (CBOT) Rough Rice #2 contract price
75 Soybean: (CBOT) contract price
Milk: (CME) Class III Milk futures contract price
Sugar: No.11 contract (ICE) – benchmark contract for raw sugar trading
70
02-Jan 22-Jan 11-Feb 02-Mar 22-Mar 11-Apr
Source: Capital IQGRAIN PRICES
15
Grain price index
Jan 2000 = 100
Wheat Maize Soyabeans Rice Barley
270
250
230
210
190
170
150
1/01/2018 1/05/2018 1/09/2018 1/01/2019 1/05/2019 1/09/2019 1/01/2020 1/05/2020
Source: International Grains CouncilKEY RATES
16EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS
17
Exchange rate movements
Values rebased to 21st Feb 2020
115
'AUD 'USD (1.4%)
110 'NZD 'USD (3.2%)
'CNY 'USD (0.5%)
105
'BRL 'USD (18.9%)
100 'JPY 'USD 4.5%
'THB 'USD (2.5%)
95
'MYR 'USD (2.4%)
90 'INR 'USD (4.4%)
'EUR 'USD 0.7%
85
'GBP 'USD (2.8%)
80 'CHF 'USD 1.2%
'RUB 'USD (13.4%)
75
21/02/2020 2/03/2020 12/03/2020 22/03/2020 1/04/2020 11/04/2020 21/04/2020
Source: Capital IQFOOD, BEVERAGE & AGRI AUSTRALIA – KEY PLAYERS
18
FOOD, BEVERAGE & AGRI AUSTRALIA – KEY PLAYERS
Values rebased to 2nd Jan 2020
160
A2 Milk 30%
Elders 34%
140 Costa Group 15%
Bega Cheese 12%
Coles 3%
120 Woolworths (1%)
Metcash…
Inghams 2%
100 Australian Ag Co 5%
Tassal (10%)
Freedom Foods (15%)
80 Select Harvest (12%)
Blackmores (10%)
ASX 200 (17%)
60 Coca-Cola Amatil (21%)
Synlait Milk (23%)
Treasury Wine (37%)
40 GrainCorp (54%)
20
02-Jan 22-Jan 11-Feb 02-Mar 22-Mar 11-Apr
Source: Capital IQGLOBAL MAJOR GRAIN TRADERS ON A RECOVERY PATH
19
MAJOR AGRI TRADERS
Values rebased to 2nd Jan 2020 in respective currencies
140
GrainCorp Adj 3%
120
United Malt 4%
100
COFCO Intl (15%)
ADM (19%)
80 Wilmar (15%)
Olam (18%)
Bunge (31%)
60
GrainCorp (54%)
40
20
United Malt share price rebased to 24th March 2020 = 100
-
02-Jan 12-Jan 22-Jan 01-Feb 11-Feb 21-Feb 02-Mar 12-Mar 22-Mar 01-Apr 11-Apr 21-Apr
NOTE:UPDATED AS OF 30TH APRIL 2020
Source: Capital IQ
Note: GrainCorp spun off its malt division and the listing of United Malt on 24 th March 2020 (previously malt division of GrainCorp) is reflected in
GrainCorp share price. GrainCorp adjusted share price reflect decoupling of malt division at the beginning of the year (2 nd Jan 2020) – ie 56%
decline in share price on 24th March is considered at beginning of the yearWHEAT STOCKS AT RECORD HIGH
20
WHEAT ENDING STOCK AS # OF MONTHS OF ANNUAL DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION
Calculated as Ending Stock divided by Domestic consumption multiplied with 12
China World World (ex-china)
16
14
12
# OF MONTHS
10
8
6
4
2
-
2000/2001 2002/2003 2004/2005 2006/2007 2008/2009 2010/2011 2012/2013 2014/2015 2016/2017 2018/2019
Source: USDA PSDRICE ENDING STOCKS
21
RICE ENDING STOCK AS # OF MONTHS OF ANNUAL DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION
Calculated as Ending Stock divided by Domestic consumption multiplied with 12
China World World (ex-china)
12
10
8
# OF MONTHS
6
4
2
-
2000/2001 2002/2003 2004/2005 2006/2007 2008/2009 2010/2011 2012/2013 2014/2015 2016/2017 2018/2019
Source: USDA PSDBARLEY ENDING STOCKS
22
BARLEY ENDING STOCK AS # OF MONTHS OF ANNUAL DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION
Calculated as Ending Stock divided by Domestic consumption multiplied with 12
China World World (ex-china)
4.0
3.0
# OF MONTHS
2.0
1.0
-
2000/2001 2002/2003 2004/2005 2006/2007 2008/2009 2010/2011 2012/2013 2014/2015 2016/2017 2018/2019
Source: USDA PSDAUSTRALIA EXPORTS
Australia Exports1 – Trade Value (USD m)
Japan China/HK USA South Indonesia ROTW
Korea
Export Value1 by Major Country - 2019 Beef Sheep meat
9,000 3,500
3,283,
12%
7,500 3,000
8,234,
31%
2,500
6,000
2,000
4,500
9,697,
36% 1,500
896, 1,717, 3,000
3% 6% 2,767, 1,000
10% 1,500
500
- -
2005 2010 2016 2017 2018 2019 2005 2010 2016 2017 2018 2019
Seafood Wheat Dairy
1,200 5,000 2,500
1,000
4,000 2,000
800
3,000 1,500
600
2,000 1,000
400
1,000 500
200
- - -
2005 2010 2016 2017 2018 2019 2005 2010 2016 2017 2018 2019 2005 2010 2016 2017 2018 2019
Note1: HS Codes for commodities include Beef (0201, 0202, 020610, 020621, 020622, 020629, 021020), Sheepmeat (0204), Seafood (03), Fruits, Nuts & Vegetables (07,08), Wheat
(1001,1101), Dairy (0401 – 0406), Wool (5101,5103-04,5106-07,5109,510510,510521,510529), Wine (2204), Sugar (170111, 170113,170114), Cotton (52), Forestry (44)
23
Source: UNComtrade, ANZDisclaimer
Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ACN 005 357 522) (“ANZ”) and its related bodies corporate and affiliates are represented in various countries.
Country/region specific information: 24
Australia. This document is distributed in Australia by ANZ. ANZ holds an Australian Financial Services licence no. 234527.
United Kingdom. ANZ is authorised and regulated in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority (“FSA”). This document is distributed in the United Kingdom by ANZ solely for the information of persons who would come within the FSA definition of “eligible
counterparty” or “professional client”. It is not intended for and must not be distributed to any person who would come within the FSA definition of “retail client”. Nothing here excludes or restricts any duty or liability to a customer which ANZ may have under the UK Financial
Services and Markets Act 2000 or under the regulatory system as defined in the Rules of the FSA.
New Zealand. This document is distributed in New Zealand by ANZ Bank New Zealand Limited (“ANZ NZ”).
United States. If and when the material accompanying this document is received by any US persons or other persons within the United States or its territories or possessions, the following statement and the text below is applicable: ANZ Securities, Inc. (“ANZ S”) is a
member of FINRA (www.finra.org) and registered with the SEC. ANZ S’s address is 277 Park Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10172, United States of America (Tel: +1 212 801 9160 Fax: +1 212 801 9163).
This document is distributed in the United States by ANZ S (an affiliated company of ANZ), which accepts responsibility for its content. Further information on any securities referred to in this document may be obtained from ANZ S upon request. Any US person(s) receiving
this document and wishing to effect transactions in any securities referred to in this document must contact ANZ S, not its affiliates.
Indonesia. This document is distributed by PT. ANZ Panin Bank (“ANZ Panin”). ANZ Panin is incorporated and licensed in Indonesia with limited liability.
Vietnam. This document is distributed in Vietnam by ANZ Bank (Vietnam) Limited (“ANZ VN”). ANZ VN Is a wholly-owned foreign bank incorporated and licensed in Vietnam.
China. If and when the material accompanying this document is distributed by ANZ, ANZ NZ, ANZ S, ANZ Panin, ANZ VN or ANZ Bank (Europe) Limited (“ANZBEL”), the following statement and the text below is applicable: No action has been taken by ANZ, ANZ NZ, ANZ S,
ANZ Panin, ANZ VN or ANZBEL or any affiliated entity which would permit a public offering of any products or services of such an entity or distribution or re-distribution of this document in the People’s Republic of China (“PRC”). Accordingly, the products and services of such
entities are not being offered or sold within the PRC by means of this document or any other document. This document may not be distributed, re-distributed or published in the PRC, except under circumstances that will result in compliance with any applicable laws and
regulations.
If and when the material accompanying this document relates to the products and/or services of Australia and New Zealand Bank (China) Company Limited ("ANZ C"), the following statement and the text below is applicable: This document is distributed by ANZ C in the
Mainland of the PRC.
Hong Kong. This document is distributed in Hong Kong by the Hong Kong branch of ANZ, which is registered by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to conduct Type 1 (dealing in securities), Type 4 (advising on securities) and Type 6 (advising on corporate
finance) regulated activities. In Hong Kong, this document may only be made available to “professional investors” in accordance with Part 1 of Schedule 1 to the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap. 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong). Please note that the contents of this
document have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong. If you are in any doubt about any of the contents of this document, you should obtain independent professional advice.
Singapore. This document is distributed in Singapore by the Singapore branch of ANZ solely for the information of “accredited investors”, “expert investors” or (as the case may be) “institutional investors” (each term as defined in the Securities and Futures Act Cap. 289 of
Singapore). ANZ is licensed in Singapore under the Banking Act Cap. 19 of Singapore and is exempted from holding a financial adviser’s licence under Section 23(1)(a) of the Financial Advisers Act Cap. 100 of Singapore. In respect of any matters arising from, or in
connection with the distribution of this document in Singapore, contact the ANZ Chief Economist, Asia.
Taiwan. This document is distributed in Taiwan by the Taipei branch of ANZ, which is registered as a branch of a foreign bank and holds a securities investment consulting enterprise license issued by the Taiwan Financial Supervisory Commission. In Taiwan, this document
may only be made available to ANZ customers who have requested or have consented to receive distribution of this document and who have entered into a securities investment consulting agreement with ANZ.
Germany. This document is distributed in Germany by the Frankfurt Branch of ANZ solely for the information of its professional clients.
Papua New Guinea. This document is issued by Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (PNG) Limited (Company Registration No. 1-6419) (“ANZ PNG”).
European Economic Area ("EEA")
This document is distributed in the EEA by ANZ Bank (Europe) Limited (“ANZBEL”) to persons who would come within the FSA definition of “eligible counterparty” or “professional client” in other countries in the EEA. This document is distributed in those countries solely for
the information of such persons upon their request. It is not intended for, and must not be distributed to, any person there who would come within the FSA definition of “retail client”.
Information relevant to all countries/regions.
The distribution of this document may be restricted by law in certain jurisdictions. Persons who receive this document must inform themselves about and observe all relevant restrictions.
This document is issued on the basis that it is only for the information of the particular person to whom it is provided. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose. This document has been prepared for information
purposes only and does not take into account the specific requirements, investment objectives or financial circumstances of any recipient. The recipient should seek independent financial, legal, tax and other relevant advice and should independently verify the accuracy of
the information contained in this document.
Under no circumstances is this document to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation or advice to buy or sell or not to buy or sell any product, instrument or investment, to effect any transaction or to conclude any
legal act of any kind whatsoever. If, despite the foregoing, any services or products referred to in this document are deemed to be offered in the jurisdiction in which this document is received, no such service or product is intended for nor available to persons resident in that
jurisdiction if it would be contradictory to local law or regulation. Such local laws, regulations and other limitations always apply with non-exclusive jurisdiction of local courts.
From time to time ANZ, ANZ NZ, ANZ S, ANZ Panin, ANZ VN, ANZ C, ANZBEL, ANZPNG (collectively, “ANZ Group”), its affiliated companies, or its respective associates and employees may have an interest in or deal in, or seek to have an interest in or deal in, financial
products, instruments or other investments, directly or indirectly the subject of this document and may receive commissions or other remuneration in relation to the sale of such financial products, instruments or other investments. Such interests or dealings may directly or
indirectly conflict with your interests.
The information in this document has been obtained from, and any opinions in this document are based upon, sources believed reliable. Any views expressed in this document reflect the author’s personal views, including those about any securities and issuers referred to in
this document. The author, however, makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and the information should not be relied upon as such. All opinions and estimates in this document reflect the author’s judgement on the date of this
document (unless otherwise specified) and are subject to change without notice. ANZ does not guarantee the performance of any of the products mentioned and ANZ Group, its affiliated companies, its respective directors, officers, and employees expressly disclaim any
responsibility, and shall not be liable, for any loss, damage, claim, liability, proceedings, cost or expense (“Liability”) arising directly or indirectly (and whether in tort, including negligence), contract, equity or otherwise out of or in connection with the contents of and/or any
omissions from this document, or your receipt or use of it, except where a Liability is made non-excludable by legislation.
Any opinions, estimates, assumptions, forecasts and projections may or may not involve material elements of subjective judgement and analysis, and may or may not be achieved or prove to be correct. Forecasts and other projections are subject to significant uncertainties,
contingencies and unanticipated events, most of which fall outside the control of ANZ Group and its affiliated companies. Differences between forecast and actual results are common and may be material, because events often occur otherwise than in accordance with
projections. You should therefore conduct your own independent review, diligence, verification and analysis in respect of any opinions, estimates, assumptions, forecasts and projections, and not rely on those provided.
If this document has been distributed by electronic transmission, such as e-mail, then such transmission cannot be guaranteed to be secure or error-free as information could be intercepted, corrupted, lost, destroyed, arrive late or incomplete, or contain viruses. The sender
therefore does not accept Liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of this document, which may arise as a result of electronic transmission.Q&A Please submit your questions. 25 ©2020 Grant Thornton Australia Limited. All rights reserved.
Presenters
Pat O'Shannassy John McInerney
CEO Partner - Financial Advisory
Grain Trade Australia Grant Thornton Australia
D +61 2 9235 2155 D +61 2 8297 2504
E pat.oshannassy@graintrade.org.au E john.mcinerney@au.gt.com
Michael Whitehead Danika Parmar
Head of Agribusiness Insights Senior Associate
ANZ HFW
D +61 3 8655 6687 D +61 2 9320 4663
E michael.whitehead@anz.com E danika.parmar@hfw.com
26 ©2020 Grant Thornton Australia Limited. All rights reserved.You can also read
