12th June 2020 - Wilson James
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12th June 2020 19
COVID-19 REPORT
SUMMARY
• The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally is now over 7.5 million with 420,000 deaths, according to
Worldometer.
• The United States has passed the 2 million figure of confirmed cases of COVID-19.
• The World Health Organization said this week that Russia's low death rate was "difficult to understand". The
country has the third highest figure of confirmed cases in the world but a relatively low death rate.
• The pandemic is accelerating in Africa with South Africa accounting for a quarter of the cases on the continent.
• The UK’s economy shrank by 20.4% in April, three times greater than the whole of the 2008/9 economic
downturn, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
• The drop in UK GDP this year “would actually be worse than every other industrialised nation”, according to the
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
• The OECD has also predicted the worst global peacetime recession in a century.
• The United Nations has warned that the global pandemic could force millions of children into child labour.
• Latin America has now recorded more than 1.5 million COVID-19 cases and 70,000 deaths.
GLOBAL MAP OF CASES OF COVID-19
Source: Centre for Disease Control and Prevention 12.06.2020
COVID -19/RAS/12th June 2020 2
COVID-19 REPORT
UK UPDATE
TOTAL CONFIRMED CASES
291,409
UK DAILY CASES
1,266
For an interactive map of COVID-19 deaths in England & Wales click here.
LIVE STATISTICS TOTAL DEATHS
41,279
UK WIDE – Public Health England
SCOTLAND - Scottish Government
NORTHERN IRELAND: NISRA
• Starting from Saturday 13th June, people living alone in England will be allowed to visit one other household
without social distancing, in what the Prime Minister has dubbed a “support bubble.” One part of a bubble has to
be a single-person household or a single parent to children under 18. The new rule does not apply to people who
are self-isolating or to other constituent countries of the UK.
• There are calls from Tory backbenchers to drop the 2m social distancing rule in England in a bid to help the
economy. The WHO recommends a distance of 1m already implemented by France, Denmark, and Singapore.
• UK industry leaders have asked the government to allow “travel corridors” to deal with other countries. This
would exempt people from these countries from the new quarantine rules and allow specific trading partners to
help boost the economy.
• The statue of Robert Baden-Powell is to be removed from Poole Quay by Bournemouth, Christchurch, and Poole
council on advice from the Police. The twelve-year-old statue is to be removed amid fears it is on the “target list
for attack”. Anti-racist campaigners have accused Baden-Powell for being racist, homophobic, and supporting
Adolf Hitler alongside a nationwide campaign of targeting statues connected to the slave trade.
• Over 31,000 close contacts were identified during the first week of the test and trace system. 85% of these have
been reached and asked to self-isolate from 8,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases. The NHS figures cover the 28th May
to the 3rd June. However, Baroness Harding, in charge of the system, has said it is “not at the gold standard of
where we want it to be”.
• The UK government has confirmed that schools will not be remaining open over the summer for key workers.
• The Office for National Statistics has said “virtually every sector in UK economy shrank”. The UK economy shrunk
by a quarter over the months of March and April. Output in the air industry is down 90%, construction is down
COVID -19/RAS/12th June 2020 3COVID-19 REPORT
40%, car manufacturing is down 90%. British trade with the rest of the world has also been affected with both
imports and exports considerably reduced.
• Chancellor Rishi Sunak says the "severe impact" of this coronavirus in the UK's economy is "in line with many
other economies around the world" – in contrast to comments made by the Organisation for Economic Co-
operation and Development.
• The English Premier League will restart on 17th June, but players and staff will not be required to wear face masks.
Players will be encouraged not to spit, there will be no ball boys or girls, footballs will be sterilised, and
celebrations will have to be done at an appropriate distance from players.
COVID -19/RAS/12th June 2020 4UK UPDATE Source: Public Health England 11.06.2020
REGIONAL UPDATES
TOTAL CONFIRMED CASES
7,609,728
TOTAL DEATHS
424,084
PATIENTS RECOVERED
3,852,232
(Johns Hopkins University, 2020)
COUNTRIES/REGIONS
213
CLICK HERE FOR LIVE REPORTED
CASES
(Worldometer, 10.06.2020)
CLICK HERE FOR GRAPH
*Above figures via Worldometer. Figures will vary between sources.
DETAILS
6
COVID -19/RAS/12th June 2020ASIA
China
Video conferencing company Zoom has suspended the account of a group of US-based Chinese activists. The
group Humanitarian China had held a meeting online to commemorate the Tiananmen Square crackdown, but
their account was closed within a few days. Zoom has said it had been closed to comply with “local laws” but has
now been reinstated.
A Harvard Medical School report has suggested COVID-19 may have been spreading in Wuhan as early as August
2019. Chinese authorities have said this theory is “incredibly ridiculous”; they originally reported it to the WHO on
31st December. The Harvard report uses satellite images of traffic outside hospitals in Wuhan and online search
queries. The report has not been peer reviewed.
Last week China advised its citizens against travelling to Australia due to a “significant increase” in racist attacks. It
has now followed this up saying Chinese students should be “cautious” when travelling there for their studies as
they did not think Australia had got the pandemic under control as well as the chance of racial abuse. This is the
latest in an escalation of tensions between the two countries after Australia called for an independent inquiry into
the outbreak of the virus, but China has denied this latest advice to be politically motivated.
India
India’s financial capital of Mumbai has overtaken Wuhan with over 51,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19. The
capital Delhi is also seeing a spike in cases with the country now fourth on the list of total confirmed cases with
over 297,000. The surge comes after a relaxing of the lockdown restrictions after three months of stringent
measures. One party to celebrate the end of lockdown has been responsible for 180 new cases alone. The country
has had no choice but to lift restrictions as their economy struggles, businesses face closures and unemployment
levels rise. The government had hoped that the level of undiagnosed cases would not require hospitalisation
however, there are now reports of hospitals being overwhelmed and having to turn away patients with COVID-19
symptoms.
Nepal
India and China continue their military stand-off in the northern Indian region of Ladakh. To make matters worse
Nepal, an area sandwiched between the two countries, will release its own version of a map that includes
occupation of three areas contested by India. The areas currently contain Indian citizens that pay taxes in India
and participate in Indian elections. India’s defence minister has recently inaugurated a road linking India to the
Lipulekh pass, claiming that this would provide an improved pilgrimage route for Hindus. However, as India fear
another Chinese incursion through the pass, after the disastrous 1962 border war, it is thought to have more
strategic purposes. Nepal has a tough job, landlocked between the two largest nations on earth, making it
dependent on trade with both countries. The “cartographic war” has heightened tensions between India and
Nepal, combined with China taking a much more proactive interest in Nepal for strategic and economic purposes
in recent years, it is unlikely to ease any time soon.
Pakistan
The World Health Organisation has recommended that Pakistani authorities re-impose a strict, intermittent
lockdown, targeting localities with high COVID-19 spread as cases have increased exponentially since most
restrictions were lifted last month. Different provinces have had different levels of lockdown. The problem now
seems to be in the Mosques as people rush back to attend prayers in large groups with very little social
distancing. Pakistan has also been struggling with an influx of low-quality face masks.
7
COVID -19/RAS/12th June 2020Thailand
Thailand has shut its famous Wat Pho temple to foreigners fearing they will spread COVID-19. The site is a major
tourist attraction and contains a giant reclining Buddha in gold leaf.
Malaysia
Malaysia will not allow its citizens to make the Hajj pilgrimage this year due to concerns over COVID-19. Every
year Malaysia sends tens of thousands of pilgrims to Saudi Arabia the home of Islam’s two holiest sites, Mecca,
and Medina. Their Religious Affairs Minister is worried that the respiratory disease will spread quicker if people
are allowed to attend mass gatherings such as these and will then bring it back to their country.
Malaysia currently has 8,369 confirmed cases and 118 deaths. While the pilgrimage is a major source of revenue
for Saudi Arabia it represents a huge danger to public safety through the potential to spread the virus. Some
people will wait twenty years to go on the pilgrimage due to a waiting list.
AFRICA
Kenya
The Kenyan government are facing tough decisions about reopening its economy while still keeping COVID-19
under control. The World Bank have predicted their economy to slow down from 5% to 1% growth. The President
has commented that while easing restrictions by only a fifth could lead to 30,000 deaths by December there could
be half a million jobs lost in the next six months if the economy did not get back on track. The country remains
under a countrywide overnight curfew and movement outside of the two largest cities, Nairobi, and Mombasa, is
restricted until the first week of July.
Ethiopia
Ethiopia’s parliament has agreed to extend the Prime Minister and government’s term in office beyond October
due to delays caused by COVID-19. The elections will be held in roughly a years’ time when the pandemic is no
longer a threat.
South Africa
Security forces in South Africa are being accused of excessive force wile implementing COVID-19 lockdown
measures, allegedly killing six people.
Tanzania
The Tanzanian government is being accused of covering up its official COVID-19 figures. They have stopped
publishing case numbers and insist the pandemic there is over. There are ongoing reports of secret burials. Cases
across Africa are starting to become more widespread and more frequent, though testing is still inadequate to
give an accurate picture.
AMERICAS
Brazil
Two governors have been accused of corruption related to spending on COVID-19 medical equipment. They both
deny any wrongdoing but have recently clashed with the Brazilian President over the country’s lack of lockdown.
Brazil is the epicentre of the pandemic in Latin America with more than 770,000 confirmed cases and almost
40,000 deaths.
Environmentalists in Brazil are warning that criminals are taking advantage of the COVID-19 pandemic to clear
large parts of the rainforest. Despite a heightened military presence satellite images suggest the amount of forest
8
COVID -19/RAS/12th June 2020lost already this year is more than the whole of 2019.
United States of America
The US has reported more than 1.5 million people have applied for unemployment benefit in the last week. It is a
drop from the week before and is the second week in a row that the figure has been below 2 million since mid-
March. Over 40 million people have now lost their jobs in the last few months. Thousands of social media users in
China have mocked and criticised US President Donald Trump’s leadership over the COVID-19 pandemic.
The White House COVID-19 task force has warned governors that there could be a rise in cases due to the mass
protests against George Floyd’s death. US stocks are down amid fears of a second wave of the pandemic.
However, parks are reopening with Yosemite National Park reopening after months of closure.
EUROPE
For a full list of changes to travel restriction in Europe please click here. The list is frequently updated.
Russia
Russia now has the third highest number of infections behind the US and Brazil. A further 8,779 cases of COVID-19
have been reported bringing the total above 500,000. The death toll rose by 174 to 6,532 in the last 24 hours. The
World Health Organization said this week that Russia's low death rate was "difficult to understand". Moscow has
denied there is anything “strange” with their official statistics and that it I down to their robust health system that
they have such a low death figure, which is lower than many countries with a severe outbreak of the virus.
AUSTRALIA / OCEANIA
Australia
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced in a press conference that the country’s strategy is to
“suppress” rather than “eliminate” COVID-19. Mr Morrison said that eradicating the virus would be a welcome
“by-product,” it will not be the main goal over fears that the government’s policies could become “trapped” by it.
To this end, the state of New South Wales will enter the next phase of lockdown relaxation from 13th June,
allowing up to 20 people to gather in public.
MIDDLE EAST
Iran
Iran appear to be experiencing a second wave of infections as the country hits another peak in confirmed cases.
The figure reached 3,574 cases on Thursday 4th June following a high two months previously of 3,186 on 30th
March. The President of Iran has tried to reassure his citizens by saying that this is purely due to the increased
amount of testing and so not a true representation of past and current cases, a sentiment backed up the country’s
Health Minister.
9
COVID -19/RAS/12th June 2020WILSON JAMES ADVISORY
Our Risk Advisory Service regularly publish articles and advisories covering a myriad of subjects. These
publications can be found within our Insights section on our Risk Advisory Service website.
Saudi Arabia’s COVID-19 Spending Spree
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought about the world’s worst recession since the Second World War with the
global economy expected to shrink by 5.2% this year. Most countries have responded to this news with
austerity measures and stimulus packages. However, contrary to perceived wisdom, the Saudi Arabian
government has embarked on a spending spree to the tune of £6.2 billion, investing in more than 24 major
companies.2 This article will attempt to explain the reasoning behind this spending by investigating the impact of
the oil crisis on the country, as well as Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman’s (MBS) Vision 2030 initiative and
how it ties in with their sovereign wealth fund, and the Public Investment Fund.
The COVID-19 pandemic and resultant oil crisis has had a drastic impact on Saudi Arabia, with the latter being
largely the Kingdom’s fault after entering a failed price war with Russia in April that saw the market flooded with
oil and resulted in prices sinking. Of the two countries, Saudi Arabia have been hit hardest by the botched war
with price per barrel standing at $25 and the country needing $83 a barrel to break even, comparatively Russia
only needing $42 per barrel. Whilst talks with OPEC+ are currently underway to reduce oil production in order
to inflate the price per barrel, the Saudi economy is largely dependent on their oil revenue, which accounts for
60% of the funding of projects and investments. The consequent spending deficit has resulted in the Kingdom’s
rating by Moody’s being downgraded from ‘Stable’ to ‘Negative’ with the ratings agency citing fiscal risks due to
the oil crisis and contributory pandemic that could see net debt reach 19% of GDP this year and gross borrowing
hit 50%. Further measures to balance out the pandemic hit economy have also included the potentially
controversial decision to triple the rate of VAT from 5% to 15% and cancel the cost of living subsidy provided to
state workers. The pandemic has also presented Saudi Arabia with an opportunity to decrease its involvement in
neighbouring Yemen which began in 2015 but soon turned into a costly quagmire, with Saudi Arabia currently
rated third in the world on military spending. Read more.
10
COVID -19/RAS/12th June 2020IN OTHER NEWS
Australia
Mining giant BHP has postponed plans to expand a mine in Western Australia that could destroy dozens of
ancient indigenous heritage sites. Another major mining firm, Rio Tinto, was subject to public outrage and
protests after construction work destroyed a 46,000-year-old site last month, prompting BHP to reassess its
expansion of the Pilbara mine. BHP said in an official statement, “We will not disturb the sites identified without
further extensive consultation with the Banjima people.”
Syria
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has fired Prime Minister Imad Khamis, state media reports. The move comes
after weeks of economic instability and days of rare anti-government protests staged in the city of Suweida,
calling for the overthrow of Assad’s regime. So far, no reason has been given for Mr Khamis’ sudden dismissal. His
replacement has been announced as Hussein Arnous, the Water Resources Minister.
Syria’s currency has fallen dramatically recently, exacerbating the years-long economic turmoil, and there are also
fears over new US sanctions that will come into effect on 17th June. The law, known as the Caesar Syria Protection
Act, will target any foreign person who has knowingly provided a significant amount of financial, material, or
technological support to the regime.
Twitter
Twitter has deleted 170,000 accounts reported to be state-linked campaigns from China designed to influence
users. The social media platform announced on 11th June that 23,750 “core” accounts and 150,000 “amplifiers”
(accounts which boost content posted by the “core” accounts) had been removed after the link was revealed. The
researchers analysed almost 350,000 tweets between January 2018 and April 2020 and found that the majority
were posted during typical business hours in Beijing, dropping in quantity at weekends.
While Twitter is banned in China along with many other major social media and news websites, research from the
Australian Strategic Policy Institute shows that the campaign was targeted at international Chinese-speaking
audiences “in an effort to exploit their capacity to extend the party-state’s influence.” The tweets reportedly
created narratives around the COVID-19 pandemic to praise the CCP’s response to the virus, while also using the
situation to “antagonise the US and Hong Kong activists.” Twitter stated that many of the accounts had been
identified early and therefore were removed before gaining traction.
11
COVID -19/RAS/12th June 2020KEEPING WELL:
WILSON JAMES WEEKLY WEBINAR
Monday 15 June, 2pm
Helping children’s wellbeing and mental health
• Explaining their anxiety/low mood during
this period
• What young people need
• Helping children and families manage
Delivered by:
Click here to register
12
COVID -19/RAS/12th June 2020COVID19@wilsonjames.co.uk / riskadvisory@wilsonjames.co.uk @WJltd @WJ_Ltd www.linkedin.com/company/wilson-james
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