2030LOOK ABOVE THE TREES - INDLULAMITHI - Scenarios 2030
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INDLULAMITHI
2030
SOUTH AFRICA SCENARIOS
LOOK ABOVE THE TREES
2 / INDLULAMITHI SOUTH AFRICA SCENARIOS 2030
THREE SCENARIOS FOR SOUTH AFRICA IN 2030 / 3 CONTENTS Introduction 2 Three Scenarios for South Africa 6 Key Driving Forces 9 The World in 2030 13 Three Futures for South Africa 16 iSbhujwa – An Enclave Bourgeois Nation 18 Nayi le Walk – A Nation in Step with Itself 26 Gwara Gwara – A Floundering False Dawn 36 Indlulamithi Leadership Group 44 Indlulamithi Steering Committee 45 Researchers 46 Core Participants and Interviewees 47 Sponsors and Supporters 48
2 / INDLULAMITHI SOUTH AFRICA SCENARIOS 2030
INTRODUCTION
What would a socially cohesive South
Africa look like?
And to what degree is this attainable by
2030?
Indlulamithi South Africa Scenarios alternative futures more than
2030 is a multi-stakeholder, a decade from today. These
research-driven initiative that seeks scenarios aim to focus both leaders
to re-invigorate our search, as a from different sectors and people
nation, for ways to create a society from all walks of life on the key
where all people experience a questions of:
sense of belonging and solidarity.
A South Africa where all have What would a socially cohesive
opportunities to build a better South Africa look like?
life. A nation where everyone can And to what degree is this
feel they can influence those in attainable by 2030?
positions of power.
The project is a response to the
Indlu-la-mi-thi is the Nguni name reality that, despite great progress
for giraffe. It can be directly over the past two decades, South
translated as “above the trees”. Africa still faces major challenges.
Indlulamithi South Africa Scenarios As a nation we are struggling
2030 encourages big-picture and to deal with a confluence of
far-horizons thinking on the future inadequate economic growth,
of our country. widespread unemployment,
sharp inequalities, low levels of
Indlulamithi provides tools – in fixed investment and frail levels of
the form of scenarios, research, social capital. Cumulatively, these
and facilitated workshops, have a major impact on the living
downloadable presentations and standards, safety, education and
booklets – to assist us to imagine health of our people.
In 2017, a group of representatives
WHY 2030? from government, labour,
The year was chosen to coincide with the National Development Plan (NDP)
academia, business and other
timelines as well as those of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
stakeholders came together to
It also covers three national election cycles in South Africa – 2019, 2024 and
2029 – and two local government election cycles – 2021 and 2026. establish Indlulamithi as a quest
The dates also cover three Soccer World Cups in 2022 (Qatar), 2026 (Mexico/ for change, centred on a long-term
USA/Canada as joint hosts) and 2030 (possibly Uruguay-Argentina-Paraguay strategic view of South Africa.
joint bid, or England), three Rugby World Cups in 2019 (Japan), 2023 (France),
2027 (possibly Argentina), and three Summer Olympic Games (Toyko 2020,
Indlulamithi seeks to facilitate an
Paris 2024 and Los Angeles 2028).
open conversation on visions of a
THREE SCENARIOS FOR SOUTH AFRICA IN 2030 / 3
South African society that is socially development methodology, middle class remaining small and
integrated and where communities researchers from Mapungubwe vulnerable, the deepening of
and institutions aspire to eradicate Institute for Strategic Reflection challenges around the education
the social and economic inequalities (MISTRA) began interviewing and health systems, and the
that cause exclusion and injustice. a range of people about social continued impact of high CO2
cohesion to explore what its emissions. Negotiations around
Indlulamithi seeks to help South dimensions would be – and what land, the impact of continued
Africans realise a common purpose are the long-term prospects for urbanisation and the expansion of
and shared vision that focuses achieving more social cohesion in social welfare regimes to address
on appreciation of our diversity South Africa. ongoing poverty were among the
and on solidarity as a means to important variables identified.
development and progress. The Indlulamithi project was intent
on ensuring the involvement of a Some of the research drew on the
The project is led by Professor wide range of interviewees from best recent ‘overview’ research or
Somadoda Fikeni and is supported every sector of South Africa and on scholarly research related to
by a group of diverse stakeholders across all age groups, making sure the National Development Plan’s
from government, labour, civil that those young and unemployed strategies and developmental
society and business. were prominent among those pathways.
interviewed.
This chosen focus – on social
cohesion – emerged somewhat
surprisingly for those hosting the SOCIAL COHESION
initial meeting, who expected Social cohesion refers to the levels of integration and inclusion in communities
and in society at large. Often it reflects various measures of participation
the gathering of leading
or non-involvement in social organisations or institutions. It is shaped by
economists, businesspeople, disparities in income and wealth as well as by levels of interpersonal and
NGOs, retired jurists, trade intergroup trust. Crime rates and frequencies of violence, as well as overall
unionists and public servants wellbeing and the general health of populations are often mirrored in measures
of social cohesion. It is often encapsulated via expressions of common values
to coalesce mostly around
and manifested in senses of nationhood and of shared ethics and ideals.
the questions of the future of
the economy. But many argued
that unless social cohesion in its These interviews and months Early childhood development
various dimensions is addressed of intense research yielded 25 and mother-tongue instruction
– be it through reconciliation, or variables impacting social cohesion were identified as key areas that
addressing inequality, or crafting (see the list of variables on page 9 need to be strengthened to
a national identity, or rural/ and 10). ensure that learners succeed in
urban divides – our economic later years. Young South Africans
development strategies will This research revealed a wide remain vulnerable and exposed
flounder. And economic growth range of key issues including the to a variety of assaults, with sexual
that doesn’t promote social potentially divisive effect of the abuse generally and human
cohesion might also take South 4th industrial revolution on South trafficking identified as particular
Africa down a different road. Africa’s continued high rates of dangers.
Following a structured scenario unemployment, the South African
4 / INDLULAMITHI SOUTH AFRICA SCENARIOS 2030
These scenarios have tried to build highlighted as a key concern,
these dynamics into their design. though there was speculation that
Another major concern is that the with improvement in skills from
notion of the South African family greater access to tertiary education,
needs to be seriously recast. Only and possibly from more rigorous
a third of SA’s children are being selection and training for public
brought up by two partners. A third service, we could see a steady
are raised by their single mothers, improvement in South Africa’s
and a further third are orphans, bureaucracy.
most times brought up by their
grandmothers. Corruption was deliberately
separated from consideration
Our ‘noisy democracy’ and the of crime, because of the former
roles of the Constitution, the thriving in the context of poor
Constitutional Court, civil society governance, diverting scarce
and the media – notwithstanding the resources into the pockets of a few.
spread of fake news – are explored
as foundational forces which hold These variables – 25 in all –
those in power accountable and were then distilled into three
facilitate transparency. Key Driving Forces: Societal
Inequality, Resistance, Resentment
The ‘incomplete democratic and Reconciliation, (RRR) and
transition’, accompanied by Institutional and Leadership
continued contestation around Capacity. Please see page 9
reconciliation, will likely see to page 11 for an overview of
intensified resentment and these three KDFs and other
resistance across race, class and methodological issues.
gender lines. At its core will be
debates around reconciliation Scenarios are not meant to be
into and towards 'what'? Many visions or predictions of the
respondents rejected the notion future. Rather the key conversation
that South Africans must simply Indlulamithi hopes to encourage
reconcile themselves to societal are around questions of whether,
structures inherited from colonial if any of these three scenarios
and apartheid experiences. come to the fore, do we have
the right policies and strategies
At the same time, respondents to quickly adapt and move away
felt that social solidarity and from the undesirable elements of
sacrifice will become more central a given scenario and, at the same
to developing and entrenching time, can we move skillfully to take
specifically South African values. advantage of and encourage the
positive elements of any of the
As far as the state and politics is scenarios?
concerned, state capacity was
THREE SCENARIOS FOR SOUTH AFRICA IN 2030 / 5 By 2030, greater Johannesburg will become South Africa's first 'megacity' with a population of over 10 million people.
6 / INDLULAMITHI SOUTH AFRICA SCENARIOS 2030
INDLULAMITHI SOUTH AFRICA SCENARIOS 2030
THREE SCENARIOS FOR
SOUTH AFRICA
What would a socially cohesive South Africa look like?
And to what degree is this attainable by 2030?
The methodology for Indlulamithi South Africa Scenarios 2030 included
formative research, desktop study and extensive interviews with both
individual experts and focus groups representative of South Africa’s
diversity in terms of gender, age, race and class. The project conducted
in-depth qualitative consultations with 150 ‘core participants’, through
interviews, focus groups and online discussion platforms. A diverse range
of participants was sought.THREE SCENARIOS FOR SOUTH AFRICA IN 2030 / 7
This primary data was young people were job-seekers;
VARIABLES
complemented by meta-analysis including many hailing from rural
This is a brief summary of the
and reviews of existing research, provinces. Many of the focus group
variables:
the commissioning of specific participants were women. Focus
research papers, as well as regular group discussions were modelled 1. We will struggle to absorb
briefings and workshops through on our interview questions, but also low-skilled labour in the
which findings were validated and included more creative exercises industrial sector but will
interrogated. This included: in which young people ‘argued for’ see improved absorption
and visually depicted their version in high-skilled and service
of the future. sectors.
1. 60 in-depth interviews with
sectoral leaders 2. Despite improved labour
Interviewers asked participants to 3. Online platform with a protection, job losses, wage
reflect on what they perceived as further 70 youth decreases, automation and
the key threats to social cohesion In collaboration with AudienceNet casualisation will deepen
between now and 2030. They (https://www.audiencenet.co.uk/) the insecurity of workers.
also asked what possibilities there Indlulamithi hosted an online 3. Continuing high rates of
are for overcoming these threats platform, convening youth from youth unemployment.
and what opportunities might we across the country in an online 4. The South African middle
leverage and the steps it would class will continue to be a
take to start growing levels of social small and volatile group.
cohesion now and in the future. 5. Overall inequality will
Interviews ranged from 30 minutes remain high.
to 2.5 hours and were transcribed
6. Non-communicable
and then thematically analysed by
chronic illnesses will
the research team. Figure 1 Taken from Indlulamithi/Audience Net report
become South Africa’s
conversation about the future of
leading causes of death,
social cohesion. Here, youth were
2. Focus groups with job- compounding the HIV/
asked about the challenges they
seeking youth AIDS and TB burdens.
believe were most pressing in the
Recognising 7. South Africa will remain a
country, as well as their hopes
that the sectoral high emitter of CO² and
and fears for the future. Some
leaders we had effects of climate change
created and posted images to
interviewed will not be adequately
illustrate their points.
had skewed addressed, further
our sample widening inequality.
towards an older 4. Research conference
8. Land reform will be
demographic, Having gathered a significant negotiated through elite
we worked with amount of primary data, the competition.
Harambee (http:// project sorted this data into
9. Urbanisation will
harambee. emerging themes. It became
accelerate alongside rural
co.za/) to conduct research with clear that there were some
poverty.
youth focus groups. All of these questions arising from the research8 / INDLULAMITHI SOUTH AFRICA SCENARIOS 2030
10. Current social welfare regimes will that required further expert opinion. The research conference
continue to marginally alleviate poverty. assembled academics and practitioners from a diverse array of
11. We will see steady improvement in early fields to address the identified themes. These included specific
childhood development. insights into intergenerational woundedness, the future impacts
of climate change, the nature of human trafficking in South Africa,
12. We will see continued success in access
mother-tongue education and gender-based violence.
to education, while concerns over quality
and equity persist.
13. Increased funding for (and access to) The conference also comissioned papers to better understand
tertiary education will see greater youth shaping dynamics of South Africa’s economy, global context and
absorption into the economy. location, and long-term growth prospects.
14. Civil society will continue to hold the
State accountable. During this period, Indlulamithi drew on recent reports and
15. The number of single parents and monographs from organisations working in related fields,
female-headed households will increase. including the Mandela Initiative, the Institute for Security Studies
and the Vumelana Land Scenarios.
16. While overall crime rate will stablise,
particular crimes will escalate with women,
children and the poor remaining targeted 5. Distilling the variables: for the purposes of the Indlulamithi
disproportionately. South Africa Scenarios 2030 exercise, ‘variables’ refer to a discrete
17. South Africans will wrestle over the set of hypotheses, or intuitions, about the way certain phenomena
Constitution. might unfold in the future. These ‘hunches’ are informed by
research, and while they seek to capture and understand key
18. Without meaningful reconciliation,
trend lines, and dynamics in each field, they are not ‘predictions’
we will see intensified resentment and
about the future of the variable. Twenty five variables were
resistance.
identified. Each of these has a more in-depth rationale and
19. Investigative journalists will continue to
explanation which can be accessed at http://sascenarios2030.
hold the state to account.
co.za/research/. These variables, and the understanding of how
20. State capacity will remain weak but it will they each shape South Africa’s current reality and how they might
be more inhibiting of corruption. shape South Africa going forward constitute the ‘DNA’ on which
21. Political leadership will be expressed the Indlulamithi scenarios were built.
through increased coalitions and a rising
youth voice.
6. Ranking: having formulated the variables and interrogated
22. We will see an increased commitment to their likely range of outcomes and impacts, the project ranked
long-term thinking in policymaking. them in terms of their certainty of outcome and their level
23. Regional trade and investment will of likely impact. We asked: how certain can we be about the
continue to improve, with regional trajectory of this variable? What impact will this variable, as
immigration as a major area of it changes and develops, have on social cohesion? Those
contestation. variables identified as both the most uncertain but also the
24. Social solidarity and sacrifice, albeit most impactful were then synthesised into three Key Driving
contested, become more central South Forces (KDFs), ie conceptual areas most likely to shape social
African values. cohesion in South Africa going forward. These KDFs serve as
the 'scaffolding' for the scenario storylines. These are the three
25. South Africans will on balance benefit
amalgamated KDFs: Social Inequality; Resistance, Resentment
from southern African growth and BRICS
and Reconciliation; Institutional and Leadership Capacity.
membership.THREE SCENARIOS FOR SOUTH AFRICA IN 2030 / 9
KEY DRIVING FORCES
Those variables identified as both the most uncertain but also the most impactful were synthesised
into three Key Driving Forces (KDFs). These are conceptual areas most likely to shape social cohesion
in South Africa going forward. These KDFs serve as the scaffolding for the scenario storylines.
of the wealth: the biggest long- grandparents. There are important
KDF 1 term driver of inequality. Precisely questions to be asked about
Social Inequality because of this lack of assets, the social disconnectedness of
Indlulamithi participants shared the position of the South African working-age men, many of whom
how they understood and middle class is deeply volatile. are unemployed and do not benefit
experienced inequality in South from social grants.
Africa, which was described in
Racial inequality remains
both material and immaterial
stark with white South Africans Spatial inequality informs
terms. There are stark inequalities
experiencing better quality of life access to jobs, public space, public
in income, access and assets:
on all major indices.2 Meanwhile, services and social capital. As the
the distributions of each are
intra-race inequality is also country becomes increasingly
heavily informed by race, gender,
increasing.
generation and spatial location.
While rooted in a long history of
colonialism and apartheid, these Women are more likely to be poor
inequalities are also propelled than men, and also most affected
by more contemporary forces, in times of crisis such as climate
including climate change and change, emerging epidemics
new technologies. As a Key Driver, and by violent crime. In 2015,
the focus on Social Inequality is one in five South African women
intended to capture this complex experienced intimate partner
web of social, historical and violence.3 Reported rape averages
economic features which have, at 109 per day,4 with a conviction
and are likely to have, profound rate as low as 8.4% in 2012.5 Like
effects on the future of social women, LGBTQI+ communities are
cohesion in South Africa. Three more likely to be vulnerable and
key considerations informed this marginalised.
driver:
According to Stats SA, 41% of urbanised, inequality is further
Asset-based wealth: the top 10% households are currently entrenched: people live far from
of income earners received 60-65% female-headed. This number economic centres with high
of total income in South Africa.1 is steadily increasing and a great transport costs. Inequality between
10% of South Africans hold 90–95% many households are headed by rural and urban, as well as between
1 Anna Orthofer (2016) South Africa needs to fix its dangerously wide wealth gap’. https://theconversation.com/south-africa-needs-to-fix-its-dangerously-wide-wealth-gap-66355
2 Institute for Race Relations (2017) Quality of Life Index.
3 South African Demographic and Health Survey 2016
4 SAPS Crime Stats 2016/2017
5 Mercilene Machisa et al (2017). Rape Justice In South Africa: A Retrospective Study Of The Investigation, Prosecution And Adjudication Of Reported Rape Cases From 2012.
Pretoria, South Africa. Gender and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council.10 / INDLULAMITHI SOUTH AFRICA SCENARIOS 2030
different provinces, is deepening. to inadequate early childhood there is marked difference in the
Large portions of the country’s rural nutrition. This has stark implications likelihood of employment.
and urban dwellers have insecure for longer term physical and
tenure and volatile land rights, cognitive development. Stunted
University graduates are most likely
while land and property ownership children generally perform
to find jobs, but in 2018, rates of
remains vastly unequal. Meanwhile, more poorly at school and are at
unemployment among graduates
the wealthier are increasingly likely greater risk of non-communicable
are also rising. Indlulamithi
to privatise their lives, seeking diseases.7
participants showed acute
private health, education, energy
awareness about how inequality
supply, security, transport and
While access to basic education will affect future work, education
entertainment and even obtaining
is now almost 100%, inequalities in and labour market environments.
or renewing passports and licences
the quality of education provided
online. The aspiration to ‘opt out’ of
are stark, determined by income,
public institutions, where queues Whichever economic growth path
spatial geography and race. In
are long and services unreliable, SA finds itself on over the next 12
South Africa of 2018, only around
is leaving less and less room for years, the stubborn persistence
half of all pupils who start
public participation and of inequality will need to be taken
Grade 1 complete
communion. into account. Economic growth
matric. Of all pupils
Economic strategies will need to be both
growth starting Grade 1,
transformative, addressing the root
Intergenerational strategies will only about
causes of inequality, and inclusive
poverty perpetuates need to be both 6% eventually
so that more and more South
long-term structural transformative, receive
addressing the Africans can benefit from such
inequality: if parents university
root causes of growth.
are among the poorest degrees,
inequality.
quintiles, their children although
have a 90% chance of many others do Finally, social (dis)
being ‘stuck’ in poverty, ie achieve some post- connectedness was
remaining in that quintile of wealth school qualification and skill acknowledged as a significant site
all of their lives. Sixty percent of enhancement. of inequality in South Africa. Job-
children in South Africa live in seeking youth felt that their biggest
households below the upper- barrier to entry was not knowing
More than half of South Africa’s
bound poverty line.6 the right people. Being networked
young people are unemployed
is essential for getting a foot in the
– the highest level of youth
door — with a potential employer,
Inequality impacts and is reinforced unemployment globally – and
landlord, investor, NGO-provider
at a very young age. Poor early having a matric does not radically
or public servant. Participants
childhood development is a key alter their chances of accessing
recognised both the injustice of
determinant of intergenerational work.
patrimonial or nepotistic networks,
poverty. In contemporary
and the value of social groupings
South Africa, 27% of children in
If a matric certificate is leveraged like stokvels, churches and similar
South Africa are ‘stunted’ due
towards a tertiary qualification, institutions.
6 See Mandela Initiative Synthesis Report 2018
7 See Mandela Initiative Synthesis Report 2018THREE SCENARIOS FOR SOUTH AFRICA IN 2030 / 11
KDF 2
Resistance,
Resentment and
Reconciliation (RRR)
Resistance, Resentment and
Reconciliation (RRR), while
underlying a number of
phenomena, is to be seen as a
During 2017/2018 many people in Cape Town had to queue to get water from natural springs.
driving force in itself, manifested
in various dimensions such as
This speaks about the progress the transition from apartheid to
identity, values and the public
of reconciliatory journey in South democracy. Every 'race' group
discourse. Rooted in struggles
Africa and how some young appeared to have a case to make
over the Constitution, gender
people are beginning to question about why post-democratic South
relations, and attitudes to different
the journey from apartheid to Africa does not ‘belong’ to them,
races are increasingly playing out
maturing democracy. Respondents’ and about the mechanisms of
in elevated demonstrations of
feelings of reconciliation were exclusion that make them feel
populism, violence and abuse. We
dependent on certain outcomes unheard. This was often coupled
see differences in the reading of
such as racial justice and genuine with narratives of resentment
history, not just between whites and
social and economic redress. A against those who were perceived
blacks, but also in the ways in which
large number of respondents to have benefitted unfairly. As one
the struggle against apartheid, the
believed that the government had participant put it, the country is
constitutional settlements and the
TRC process is understood.
SILENT 'NON-AGREEMENTS'
This KDF includes the mobilisation As one participant put it, the country is replete with ‘silent non-agreements’:
there are underlying conflicts we do not speak of, so as not to upset the
around a sense of woundedness
transition. Indeed, as the compromise and fragility of the transition become
and resentment, as well as around more apparent, so too does the likelihood of its disruption
ethnicity and culture. It includes
fraught struggles for recognition,
whether from Afrikaans language not done enough to address the replete with ‘silent non-agreements’
activists, black lesbians, Khoisan challenge of what was described as i.e. there are underlying conflicts
communities or would-be "intergenerational" trauma. we do not speak of, so as not to
secessionists, as well as contests 'upset' the transition. Indeed, as
over affirmative action and how the compromise and fragility of the
We cannot agree on our past.
‘transformation’ is legislated. transition become more apparent,
There was widespread feeling
The key questions and concerns so too does the likelihood of its
among our participants that South
explored with participants include disruption.
Africans do not have enough of
'the effects of an anti-black, unjust
a shared understanding of our
world' that have been inherited in
history, nor do they agree on who There are already moments of
the new South African society.
has (or has not) benefitted from rupture in which questions of12 / INDLULAMITHI SOUTH AFRICA SCENARIOS 2030
Resistance, Resentment and
Reconciliation are taking centre
stage: mobilisations around
decoloniality, mother-tongue
education, farm murders, land,
institutional racism and so on. Even
within these movements, there are
often deep fissures along gender
and generational lines.
A jobless protestor holds a placard during a march in the Ramaphosa squatter settlement, east of
Meanwhile, we have begun to Johannesburg.
wrestle with our Constitution
to realise it. The ability to take a accountable as well as assist in the
and its ability to deliver justice,
long-term view in decision-making, process of reconciliation.
with emerging flashpoints around
and the kind of ethics and values
land, traditional leadership, sexual
espoused and practised will be
orientation, sex work, language The state’s capacity would make
critical. In this context working
and access to information. Some a critical contribution to social
towards a common vision, national
argued that these are the seeds of cohesion as manifested in its ability
unity and fostering a civic spirit in
a more meaningful reconciliation in to provide economic direction,
line with our Constitution will be
the longer term while others were embark on long-term planning and
key manifestations of this KDF.
less optimistic. ensure effective social delivery.
Such includes the expansion
State capacity has been of the social security system,
KDF 3 systemically undermined by improvements to the education,
Institutional and
corruption and poor skills at health and criminal justice systems,
Leadership Capacity
critical levels. Many Indlulamithi and the future of governance in
In the wake of the moral, ethical
participants worried about the state institutions.
and human resource capability
weaknesses in our public service.
erosion experienced in the recent
past, Indlulamithi participants This capacity will also help South
identified Institutional and The looting of state-owned Africa in determining its position in
Leadership Capacity (state, private enterprises was also of particular the arena of global relations.
sector and civil society institutions) concern. World Bank Development
as a key determinant for the future Indicators in 2017 suggested
The project also considered
of social cohesion. Leadership as that South Africa’s state capacity
questions of what does it mean
expressed in all spheres of South was declining at an accelerated
to have a people-centred state,
African society will shape the rate. Meanwhile, the country
economy and society broadly?
possibilities of social cohesion by has also been shaken by private
What would a more peaceful, and
2030. This KDF manifests itself in sector theft and fraud. It will be
more caring South Africa look like,
the strategic capacity of South important for the media and civil
and to what extent can there be a
Africa’s leadership to appreciate society to improve their capacity
common vision for the future of our
the collective interest and work to hold the state and private sector
country?THREE SCENARIOS FOR SOUTH AFRICA IN 2030 / 13
THE WORLD IN 2030
South Africa’s future will play out in global and continental contexts which will shape
and colour, constrain or expand our local choices. Of particular importance will be:
Increasing levels of income and wealth A rise in authoritarian populist movements
inequality, both between nations and within in many democracies around the world, partly
countries, including all the BRICS countries. because both liberal and left-wing programmes
have struggled to articulate coherent visions and
win people over to their programmes.
Environmental changes, including increasingly
severe shifts in global climate patterns, long-
term temperature increases and environmental Globalisation, and especially offshoring of
degradation. Climate change impacts on Africa – work and digital disruption/4th industrial
mostly causing drier and hotter conditions – need to revolution processes, have put pressure on jobs
be monitored carefully. and diminished trade unions’ power to shape
political debates in many parts of the world.
The shift away from fossil fuels and the ‘carbon
economy’ and growing pressure for all countries to The processes of globalisation and digital
conform to lower carbon emissions standards. disruption have created spaces for those
mobilising around identities (ethnic or
national), or around ‘national security’. This is
The continuing exponential advance of
often driven by a ‘celebrification’ of society
computer processing power leading to rapid
(exacerbated by rapid uptake of social media
changes in machine learning/artificial intelligence.
since 2007). It is impacting on democratic
The intersection of this processing power with
processes and sometimes even on election
gigantean data sets derived from networked
results.
systems and meta-surveillance is changing
consumer culture, government/citizen interfaces,
the media industry, education, transport networks, Rising consumer debt levels – and the
and how people meet and form relationships. This possibility of severe economic ‘shocks’ such
‘4th industrial revolution’ and the creation of cyber- as another global stock market crash – might
physical systems hold great potential – and much undercut the projections for steady global
peril – for developing countries such as South economic growth in the medium term.
Africa.
Demographic growth – and stability of
Geo-political shifts to a more multipolar world democracies – across the African continent
as China’s economy – and military prowess – but particularly in South Africa’s neighbouring
continues to grow. China will surpass the USA as countries, will impact on South Africa for many
the world’s biggest economy in late 2020s. years to come.14 / INDLULAMITHI SOUTH AFRICA SCENARIOS 2030
• MOBILE CONNECTIVITY: South and maintain relationships, connect
We also need Africa has only just reached the ‘half with others – and find meaning in
to be mindful way mark’ in 2018 in terms of the
proportion of the population that is
our lives?
of these ‘cross online. Even as we move past this
• JOURNALISM AND THE
cutting’ global 50% connectivity milestone – which
is mostly via mobile phone-enabled
PUBLIC SPHERE: How will digital
factors.
online technology impact on the
connectivity – most users cannot yet
availability of news, the media
afford to be online regularly because
industries and their ability to
of the high costs of data in South
facilitate public discussions in the
Africa and the lack of sufficient free
online public sphere, as printed
or cheap wi-fi connectivity. How
newspapers become rarer and
might we change this?
entire news eco-systems migrate
online? How might the economics
• DIGITAL OPPORTUNITY: In of media and the production of
a continent which averages only journalism change?
30% total online connectivity
(although more than 80% of Africa’s
• GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH:
population had cell phone access
In terms of global economic
in 2018), how will we navigate the
opportunities and headwinds, it
various opportunities that a digital,
is likely that slowing productivity
online world offers? How might
growth – partly caused by aging
we quickly increase the number of
populations in the developed world
people online in a meaningful way?
– and slower global economic
And how might we make, receive
growth will impact on the growth
and react to the other components
potential of African countries. This
of the 4th industrial revolution?
might be offset by productivity-
What will be the effects of rapid
enhancing technology that allows
prototyping and 3D on-demand
billions of connected people to
fabrication, rapid advances in nano-
work, shop, and connect with others
and biotechnology, personalised
online, and to ‘stream’ information
medicine, and the imminent
and entertainment at low cost. Are
automation of many ‘routine task’
we ready for the opportunities and
jobs?
risks that these shifts in the global
economy offer with particular regard
• LIVING MORE ONLINE LIVES: to likely changing terms of trade
Assuming greater and cheaper and probable increased demand
access to online technology, how for commodities anticipated for the
might this change the way we form 2020s?THREE SCENARIOS FOR SOUTH AFRICA IN 2030 / 15
• THE ROAD TO NINE BILLION: Global population second or third (or even fourth) largest economy by
will increase by more than one billion people over 2030. By then, South Africa is likely to be lagging
the next 12 years (to reach about 8.6 billion in 2030). about US$100 billion behind Nigeria in terms of GDP
Because of Africa’s high population growth rates, 1,7 per annum, and may also be eclipsed by Ethiopia
billion of the world’s population – or 20% – will be and Egypt with their rapid current growth rates and
African in 2030. About 68 million of those, or 4% of the vast potential demographic dividend. How might we
continental total, will be South African. benefit or be affected by faster economic growth of
our continental neighbours? Are we ready to expand
trade northwards and focus more on assisting Africa
• THE CENTURY OF THE AFRICAN CHILD: By 2030
overcome its huge infrastructure backlogs as we
one-third of all the children in the world will be
overcome our own?
African children. The median age in developed
countries in 2018 is 40: in Africa, it is 19.7 years of age.
Will our continent give these children the opportunities • GLOBAL CONNECTIONS: We also need to be
they deserve? Some of these young Africans will want mindful of the many ways South Africa’s economy
to access South Africa’s education systems. Others will connects to global financial flows and larger global
look south for jobs and homes. Will we welcome them? trade and finance ecosystems. How might our
exchange rate fluctuate over the next 12 years? What
might the Rand be worth in 2030 against key global
• LAND HUNGER – AND THIRSTY LANDS: Growing
and continental currencies? How might this impact on
populations, scarcity of water, and a slow rise in
our overall balance of trade?
average daily temperatures, especially in central and
southern Africa, may mean less available arable land.
These environmental changes – and many other factors • INVESTMENT GRADINGS: What will South Africa’s
– are already propelling people into cities. Currently investment ‘grading’ be in the 2020s and in 2030 – and
just 40% of the continent’s population is in urban areas. how might this affect how much foreign investment we
But by 2030, almost half of Africa will be urbanised. attract, directly or indirectly, over the next 12 years?
• SLUMS AND MEGACITIES: Lagos and Kinshasa will • INTEREST AND DEBT: What will our debt levels be
both be ‘megacities’ of more than 20 million people by over the next 12 years, as proportion of our GDP? How
2030, and Luanda, Dar es Salaam and Johannesburg much of our annual budget will have to be directed
will all be cities of more than 10 million – in just over a to repay debt? How will this influence our domestic
decade’s time. Kibera, outside Nairobi, is the largest interest rates and the abilities of South Africans to
urban slum in Africa with a population of about one access capital and borrow money? How indebted will
million. More super-sized informal urban areas are individual South Africans be compared to 2018's high
emerging, linked to or near mega-cities. Are we ready levels of personal debt and low levels of household
for the impacts of this on our environments, political saving?
systems and social lives?
• ARE WE ALL IN THIS TOGETHER? How cohesive is
• CONTINENTAL TRADE: South Africa, currently South Africa? How much of a nation are we really? And
the largest economy in Africa, could become Africa’s how might this change over the next decade?16 / INDLULAMITHI SOUTH AFRICA SCENARIOS 2030
THREE FUTURES FOR
SOUTH AFRICA
Ultimately, there is only one future, once you look back
at it. But looking forward, there are ranges of possibilities
between sets of probabilities and unexpected shocks and
surprises. These are three such sets of possibilities, three
stories of how South Africa’s future, as a cohesive and
coherent nation, might unfold.
iSbhujwa
AN ENCLAVE BOURGEOIS NATION
Epitomising a loose-limbed, jumpy nation with a frenetic edge,
iSbhujwa is a South Africa torn by deepening social divides, daily
protests and cynical self-interest.THREE SCENARIOS FOR SOUTH AFRICA IN 2030 / 17
Nayi le Walk
A NATION IN STEP WITH ITSELF
In a precise sequence of steps, this scenario choreographs a vision of a
South Africa where growing social cohesion, economic expansion, and
a renewed spirit of constitutionalism get South Africa going.
Gwara Gwara
A FLOUNDERING FALSE DAWN
In a nation torn between immobility and restless energy, Gwara
Gwara embodies a demoralised land of disorder and decay.18 / INDLULAMITHI SOUTH AFRICA SCENARIOS 2030
iSbhujwa
AN ENCLAVE BOURGEOIS NATION
Epitomising a loose-limbed, jumpy nation
with a frenetic edge, iSbhujwa is a South
Africa torn by deepening social divides,
daily protests and cynical self-interest.THREE SCENARIOS FOR SOUTH AFRICA IN 2030 / 19
W hat happened, people
wonder, to the egalitarian
spirit of Ubuntu upon which we
luxury, comfort, and a high degree
of autonomy. They have private
schools, private security, private
constitutionalism and freedom of
association and speech.
built our constitutional democracy golf courses, private health facilities The more cynical suggest that
in the early 1990s? (with their own private ambulances), these demonstrations could be
private justice mechanisms and rebranded as tourist attractions – if
For many, a deep sense of historical private borehole water. Many of the only they could be more predictably
injustice and resentment at their more upmarket homes operate ‘off scheduled.
exclusion blows up into frequent the grid’, running solar-powered But at root, by 2030, all the divisions
public protests, which become battery packs and water-from-air witnessed in South Africa in 2018
even more of an everyday feature distilling machines. have widened.
of South African life. In 2028 alone,
South Africa experiences almost The widespread protests are Our way – or the privatised
3 000 serious protests. Initially not always economic at root: for highway
peaceful strikes and ‘service many there is anger about the In the early 2020s after several
delivery’ protests often become ‘incomplete transition’, including high-profile corruption trials,
mini-uprisings: blockades of the persistent power of white and despite some spectacular
highways, barricading of streets, privilege and male dominance. corporate bankruptcies, the private
torching of trucks, firebombing of This provokes increasingly intense sector decides to reposition itself
councillors’ homes and destruction and often bitter conflicts. But the as the moral guardian of society.
of state property become routine in wealthy grow cold-hearted in their Linking up with some less overtly
Isbhujwa South Africa. isolation, immune to the pain of political unions, charismatic church
those unable to access the lifestyle movements and supported by
For ordinary people, these seven of suburbia. elements within the ‘mainstream’
or eight urban revolts per day are media, these wealthier South
the most effective way in getting Just after the weather, stay Africans shore up support for a
attention from the authorities, tuned for your daily protest range of private sector-centred
before the state and its security report solutions to society’s key problems.
apparatus are called to focus These protests are often completely
their attention elsewhere. There ignored by better-off South Already by 2022 these forces are
is always a bigger fire, with more Africans. Some in the middle class, able to pressure government to
smoke. In 2022/3 and again in feeling insecure and separated drop much of its plan to extend
2027/8, campuses are sites of fierce from both the really wealthy and universal health care via the
struggle, resulting in millions of those in the poorer classes that they NHI and instead get agreement
Rand worth of damage to property have ‘left behind’, ignite protests to create more public-private
and disrupting academic cycles and of their own in the name of their partnerships to run the larger
many students’ exams. narrow causes. There are regular clinics and hospitals. They convince
‘protest reports’ on radio stations government to allow more private
Everywhere, citizens retreat into after the news, weather and traffic universities. Most of these are
their own enclaves of privilege or reports. Some regard burgeoning immediately successful despite their
poverty. For the wealthy elite, their protests as a positive affirmation high fees and zero-protest policy.
islands of voluntary isolation offer of South Africa’s commitment to This ‘market-led’ approach20 / INDLULAMITHI SOUTH AFRICA SCENARIOS 2030
resonates with global investors – disregarded by urban elites, and as street crèches, transform into
and often yields tangible results, often still facing daily racism, rural informal schools. Inexpensive
at least for about 25% of the populations also rise up and cry out. compared to private schools, and
population. Farms and crops are burned. often staffed by ex-state school
teachers, some of these schools
The poor by contrast feel stuck Even wealthy new black farmers, begin to outperform government
in their poverty, stripped of hope beneficiaries of the rapid primary schools, especially in maths
and meaningful aspiration. Poverty allocation of 4 000 state-owned and science.
and ill-health continue to exact a farms between 2019 and 2022,
terrible toll on families. For various find themselves targeted by irate Self-sufficiency increases, firstly as
reasons, including the falling workers and landless peasants. a survival mechanism, and then as
popularity of marriage, the number When a famous Stellenbosch wine part of the impetus for small-scale
of single parent families increases. estate and 14 schools are reduced entrepreneurship. People realise
Many unemployed men cannot to ashes just before the 2029 that despite political party promises,
make peace with their inability to election, global headlines scramble jobs are not coming, at least not for
provide materially for their children to describe ‘a burning rainbow’, most of the long-term unemployed.
and absentee-father rates rise. or ‘a nation in flames’ and myriad Inspired by the entrepreneurial spirit
of many African migrants in South
Africa’s towns and cities (even if the
Self-sufficiency increases, firstly as a survival mechanism, and then as part of the different communities still don’t
impetus for small-scale entrepreneurship. People realise that despite political always get along), people create
party promises, jobs are not coming, at least not for most of the long-term
small businesses in their own areas.
unemployed. Inspired by the entrepreneurial spirit of many African migrants
in South Africa’s towns and cities (even if the different communities still don’t
always get along), people create small businesses in their own areas. Savvy youngsters start to hustle
more. Some provide for people’s
day-to-day health needs in
The Free State’s official rate of other fire-drenched clichés, but in innovative ways. High levels of
unemployment tops 40% in 2026, truth, everyone increasingly has ‘no social trauma, whether from
and for those in other poor areas, words' to describe the situation. the loss of a relative, witnessing
like the Northern Cape, more than violence or long legacies of
a third of jobs seekers are unable to The poor maak ’n plan apartheid violence, also mean
find a job – even once – throughout And yet, even as anger and that many people struggle with
the 2020s. The numbers of social acrimony grow, another famous anxiety and depression. This makes
grants applied for and approved South African mark of resilience them more vulnerable to chronic
increase. comes to the fore, slightly adapted: illness. As families must manage
‘the poor maak ‘n plan’. Poorer many illnesses and many different
Longing for land South Africans become even more medications, there is a market for
Rural protests grow less patient adept and adaptable as ‘do-it- the services of pop-up licensed
with traditional and customary yourselfers’, splicing electricity ‘all-in-a-cart’ pharmacies and
leadership that is often autocratic cables and looping power across entrepreneurs arranging home
and demeaning. Feeling stuck at long distances. Communal early delivery of prescription chronic
the back-end of every queue and child-care arrangements, such medications. These help reduceTHREE SCENARIOS FOR SOUTH AFRICA IN 2030 / 21
queuing times at clinics. Government encourages smaller Mining production continues its
The older unemployed provide business through more targeted mild recovery from the historic
repair services, and many initiatives. Start-ups are supported lows of 2016. A measure of policy
unemployed people of all ages get by local development agencies and certainty from a hard-fought Mining
some work in piecemeal cleaning private sector incubators begin to Charter sees more local and
and transport services, connected function more effectively than in international investment. Although
to customers by apps and instant the 2010s. There is a focus on social mechanisation and modernisation
messaging as the effect of the innovation and many mentoring extend the working lives of many
4th industrial revolution widens. initiatives from the private sector mines, the number of direct jobs
Collective savings via stokvels and start to pay off. This allows many created by the mining industry
women’s clubs provide at least some smaller companies to create jobs decreases to 350 000 by the mid-
people with access to capital. on a larger scale. More of a start- 2020s.
up disposition takes root as the
There is a new ‘can-do’ spirit and informal sector grows faster and Manganese, iron and chromium
even a precociousness that is connects better with continue to do well as Asian
unleashed, an awakening of national the needs of the economies require more and
pride and a widespread shedding formal economy. Drawing on more steel and, while gold
of any sense of inferiority or second- This creates,
the savings made mining output stabilises
by bringing in a private
classness. Out of the schools and over time, in the early 2020s, the
sector partner for South
universities come more assertive more than African Airways (SAA), nation gets a collective
generations avowing an African a million and from other partial chill down its spine
identify and embracing a pan- new jobs in privatisations, provinces when the total number
African solidarity. Although more the informal are encouraged to create of gold mining jobs
of a middle-class experience, it is sector. manufacturing hubs drops below 100 000 for
and special export
embraced by younger and poorer the first time in 2022. This,
zones.
South Africans in urban areas who Slow-growth as so many lament, is less
find each other more and more on – with or without than a quarter of those employed
the sport fields, in city night clubs charters in gold mining when South Africa’s
and in Uber ride-sharing schemes. By comparison, the formal economy democracy dawned in 1994.
The enclaves of wealth become grows more slowly. Large-scale
more non-racial in perspective and agriculture, after some expansion Let there be light
disposition – even as their walls rise in 2019-2021, is beset with manufacturing
higher and their isolation from the uncertainty about land. Smaller- Trying to boost other sectors, the
impoverished majority increases. scale farmers make some progress government creates a range of
with substantial government aid incentives to encourage various
Revving up start-ups in high potential areas, but larger kinds of light manufacturing.
Overall, the large established scale agribusiness does not expand Drawing on the savings made by
businesses invest only as much much in the 2020s. (Other African bringing in a private sector partner
as would allow them to make countries by contrast see huge for South African Airways (SAA) –
substantial profits in more investments in their agricultural and from other partial privatisations,
monopolised sectors. sector.) provinces are encouraged to create
manufacturing hubs and special22 / INDLULAMITHI SOUTH AFRICA SCENARIOS 2030
export zones. These localised (including the so-called JAMS who people just don’t see the value of
enterprise development areas are ‘Just About Managing’ and ‘encounters’ that churches, temples,
provide better local linkages and usually only a pay cheque or two mosques and shuls try to organise,
clustering effects, but finding away from poverty), these roughly despite government funding for
profitable niches proves difficult. six to eight million wealthier South processes designed to build a new
Africans become increasingly spirit of reconciliation and redress.
Despair of the NINJAS non-racial in their worldviews. The cry is for jobs and resources, and
Business process outsourcing and They are social media-savvy and a more level economic playing field.
international call-centre operations uber-connected, becoming more
also grow significantly – until these ‘bourgeois’ in their sensibilities and There was never a ‘new TRC’, as
jobs begin to be replaced in the staying in touch with global fashion, some clamoured for. People did not
mid-2020s by automated AI ‘chat food and tech trends. seem to want to deal with too many
bots’ that eliminate jobs that are new truths – or any truths at all.
made up of routine and repetitive No truth or
tasks. reconciliation But at least a spirit of
There is no
Partly because constitutionality survives despite
‘new TRC’ as
Ultimately though, it is only the of sluggish people don’t seem regular acts of ‘insurrectionary
services sector that creates much economic to want to deal with citizenship’ in the 2020s. It is
too many new not unusual for communities to
by way of new jobs. By 2030, South growth, and
truths – or any
Africa has more security guards per persistently barricade highways and stone
truths at all.
capita than any other nation. And high levels of police one day, and engage senior
by 2030, while the unemployment inequality, South council and seek urgent interdicts in
rate (20% on the narrow definition) Africans find it hard to meet courts the next day. Courts remain
is lower than at the start of the across the borders of culture independent and are often the first
decade, it is still far too high for any and wealth. Younger generations resort of those contesting power
country that aspires to build social confront unearned privilege more inside and outside political parties.
cohesion. Particularly one where the aggressively and there is some
median age of the population is still progress on reconfiguring gender The SANDF and the police also
well under 30 years. roles and supporting families as remain firmly under civil control
core units of social cohesion. Levels and direction, and the armed forces
Between the 2019 election and of gender violence decline in provide a measure of stability as
2030, South Africa has averaged some wealthier enclaves as active governing coalitions come and go.
just 2.2% growth, barely keeping programmes seek to engage men
the economy in line with population to change as the global ‘me too’ Shifting sands
growth. Many NINJAs – those with movement impacts on South Africa’s A divided union movement, unable
No Income, No Jobs and Assets – multiple patriarchies, pushed by to grow its numbers significantly
slip into deeper despair, as they see new women’s formations. in the face of new forms of
yet another generation unable to casualisation and the technology-
climb out of poverty. Government and many based atomisation of work, tries
private projects seek to foster to push back and create pressure
Joined by a growing ‘middle class’ 'reconciliation', but this turns out to for a more effective state rollout of
of various levels of financial security be mostly hot air. In the poorer areas, resources and a better distributionTHREE SCENARIOS FOR SOUTH AFRICA IN 2030 / 23
of wealth. Having played an
important role in curbing and
exposing corporate excesses and
corruption in the state in the 2010s,
many in the union movement
seek new ways to engage with
more political struggles, stabilise
institutions and grow their
membership.
Despite this, COSATU finds its
role diminished as a reconfigured
tripartite alliance fails to repair
a decade of damage. Unable to
convince its restless membership,
and with cadres not fully satisfied
with occasional government
positions offered by the ANC, the
SACP experiments with ‘going it
alone’ in the 2026 local government Widespread violence broke out in Tshwane after the ANC announced their choice of mayoral
elections. To the surprise of many, candidate for Tshwane in 2016.
it attains some 5% of the vote. widespread informalisation of work ability to create large and more
Fractious debate ensues on how continue. compliant ‘voter’ blocks than the
to approach the 2029 elections, urban areas.
especially in light of some violent At the same time, a party formed
incidents between ANC and in 2019 to campaign against Conferences and compacts
SACP members in the 2026 local corruption trials (but claiming After a few relatively stable years
government elections. to pursue radical economic in the early 2020s, in the lead
transformation) makes little impact up to the 2022 ANC elective
Newer unions and federations at national level, but does cut a conference and the 2024 national
battle to consolidate their impact few percentages from the ANC in elections, the ANC finds itself
and influence and work out the KwaZulu-Natal. This party eventually unable to overcome the disruptive
right balance between shop floor allies with an IFP that has made dynamic of factionalism. The
effectiveness and their ability to small gains in the province. party splits along lines that reflect
shape the political climate and the polarisations of the NASREC
influence policy choices on the Urban and rural divides deepen, conference of December 2017, but
health system and educational as drought and a lack of support with more provincially based fault
reforms. Much of what had been for rural development thrusts lines coming to the fore.
a constructive ‘pressure from the ever more people off the land. The ANC is not alone in its internal
left’ increasingly has little effect Traditional leaders in many battles: all the major political
as the growing ‘gig-economy’, provinces make a play for greater parties split in the 2020s over
steep deindustrialisation and the power and resources, aware of their issues of both style and substance.You can also read
