3D printing in construction: A revolution whose time has come - Currie & Brown
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March 2021
Middle East Issue #29
Industry focus
3D printing in
construction:
A revolution whose
time has come
Global economy: Regional economy: Commodities
Speed of recovery Gulf states will spend price analysis
depends on response to 2021 recovering from
Covid-19 outbreaks ‘double hit’
2 March 2021 Insight
Contents Change and recovery as the
3 world gets over pandemic
Global economy:
Speed of recovery
depends on
response to Welcome to Insight #29 covering Another significant event is the
the countries of the Middle East. arrival of Joe Biden as president
Covid-19 outbreaks of the United States, replacing
Is the vaccine changing everything
Donald Trump. That has significant
for the better? Three months
implications, particularly in terms
into 2021 there are certainly
of what it means for the trade war
more optimistic forecasts about
between the US and China that
economic recovery and how
continued throughout the previous
quickly the region – and the world
administration. President Biden
– can return to business as usual.
has also signalled a shift in the US
There is no doubt that the approach to the Middle East.
coronavirus pandemic devastated
We take a look at all of these
economic progress around the
5
issues here, as well as examining
Regional economy: world last year. However, it is clear
what is happening across the
that the rate of recovery has varied
Gulf states will spend across regions, with some ending
construction and related sectors
2021 recovering from 2020 in stronger positions than
throughout the GCC area.
‘double hit’ others. We also look at the radical
potential of 3D printing in
Vaccination is helping to level
construction, and its impact for
that situation. Without it, the
economies that need to meet
7
rate of infection would be out of
growing needs for new housing.
Commodities control. Major events such as
Dubai has positioned itself
price analysis Dubai Expo are going ahead
as a centre for 3D printing, a
later this year, and throughout
technology which promises to
the Gulf Co-operation Council
achieve significant cost reductions
(GCC) countries, governments are
in the provision of certain types of
pushing ahead with infrastructure
9
buildings, both commercial and
Industry focus: development that envisages key
residential.
growth in tourism.
3D printing in
New construction techniques
construction: A All of that displays the confidence
signal the way forward for the
revolution whose required for full recovery. In the
sector, policymakers and those
time has come case of the GCC, the pandemic
governments and banks that fund
came on top of the deep reduction
significant growth projects. But
in oil prices that had already
they are part of a solution that has
threatened an economic ‘pause’.
to embrace sustainability, digital
For many countries, it also
11
innovation and new approaches to
Currie & Brown coincided with a major policy shift
transportation.
away from an over-dependence
offices
on oil and gas and significant
initiatives such as Saudi Arabia’s
‘Vision 2030’.
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3 Global economy March 2021 Insight
Speed of recovery depends on
response to Covid-19 outbreaks
The global economy is predicted Generally speaking, the Asia-Pacific
to grow by an average 5.5 per cent economies have opened much
during 2021, and a further 4.2 per more quickly, with Gulf Co-operation The rollout of the
cent in the following year, according Council countries not far behind,
to the latest outlook published by the compared to the worst-hit areas of vaccines is expected
International Monetary Fund (IMF). North and South America and Europe. to help contain
The figures reflect a slight levelling- “The strength of the recovery is the pandemic and
up of the overall forecast, and the
IMF attributed that to the speedier-
projected to vary significantly across enable governments
countries, depending on access to
than-expected rollout of Covid-19 medical interventions, effectiveness to continue to lift
vaccines as they have been of policy support, exposure to cross- restrictions that have
approved by various national health
regulators.
country spill overs and structural
characteristics entering the crisis,”
had such a broad
While new strains continue to emerge, said the IMF report. It urged a economic impact.
rapid vaccine rollout will significantly balance of intervention and an
contribute to containing the pandemic. acceleration of 'green' economic
This gives governments the initiatives in order to achieve lasting
confidence to ease the restrictions recovery from what forecasters
that have had such far-reaching describe as “the pandemic
economic and societal impact. recession”.
www.curriebrown.com
4 Global economy March 2021 Insight
Forecasters found that some The World Bank took a more
economies had experienced conservative view of recovery,
softening in late 2020 – probably predicting global growth of 4 per cent One major issue for
because of a resurgence of Covid-19 this year, and 3.8 per cent in 2022.
infections and unemployment finance ministers is
Richer nations will lead recovery
increases in some countries. “With
through a mix of major capital
the scale of borrowing
growing vaccine availability, improved
therapies, testing and tracing,
spending, on infrastructure projects needed to subsidise jobs
local transmission of the virus is
particularly. While interest rates during the various Covid-
remain low, borrowing to fund such
expected to be brought to low levels
projects remains relatively cheap. related lockdowns, as
everywhere by the end of 2022.
Some regions and countries will get
One major issue for finance ministers well as money required to
is the scale of borrowing needed to
to low local transmission sooner than
subsidise jobs during the various
boost recovery.
others depending on country-specific
Covid-related lockdowns, as well as
circumstances,” they add.
money required to boost recovery.
Forecasts vary between regional
The IMF report includes a section on On the upside, forecasters point
economies. For example, it notes
'risks to the outlook' which reveals out that if vaccination programmes
that China was able to recover more
how much its forecast depends on expand and accelerate quickly during
quickly than other economies, helped
continued progress in defeating 2021, the outcomes could be even
by effective containment measures, a
Covid-19. better than expected – thereby linking
"forceful public investment response"
and liquidity support from the central A virus surge would weaken growth economic growth over the coming
bank. and the pace of recovery, and there year to an early end to the pandemic
could be a risk of “intensifying social and little else.
The IMF said that oil exporters and
unrest, … due to higher inequality In the Gulf region, the rollout of
those economies depending heavily
and unequal access to vaccines and vaccines and a stronger-than-
on tourism-related income face
therapies”, said the IMF. Another risk expected recovery to oil prices during
more difficult prospects because
could be the premature withdrawal the first quarter of the year may mean
of a slower return to normal, which
of policy support, leaving viable good news for the economy as much
particularly affects international travel
businesses at risk of bankruptcy. as for the population.
and energy prices.
It warns that as many as 90 million
people worldwide will fall below the
poverty threshold as a result of the
pandemic.
There are other broader factors
which may have an impact on the
global economy as it battles to
recover ground during 2021 and
2022 – for example, the international
implications of the Biden US election
victory and the follow-on effects of
Brexit. Growth is expected to be
led by China, but that was the case
before the pandemic, and economic
activity there is changing shape,
perhaps away from exports to the
West and more towards regional trade.
The IMF view has been mirrored by
the World Bank, whose own forecast
points out that poorer countries will
suffer the brunt of the pandemic’s
effects for longer, particularly
because of lower access to vaccines.
It warns that the world could suffer a
"wave of debt", particularly involving
those countries that are less well
equipped to recover.
www.curriebrown.com5 Regional economy March 2021 Insight
Gulf states will spend 2021
recovering from ‘double hit’
Oil exporters in the Arabian Gulf have The six nations of the Gulf Co- OPEC monthly
additional reasons to seek an end operation Council region all
to what the International Monetary
basket price (US$)
experienced shrinking GDP during
Fund (IMF) has called the “pandemic 2020, with Oman and Kuwait worst
Apr-20 17.66
recession”. hit. In Saudi Arabia and the UAE,
Oil prices have been depressed in the damage has been estimated at May-20 25.17
recent years, to the extent that they 5.4 and 6.3 per cent negative growth
have hit government income and respectively, according to the World Jun-20 37.05
expenditure in major economies Bank.
Jul-20 43.42
such as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Each of them is predicted to recover
(KSA) and the United Arab Emirates
during 2021, by between 2.4 per Aug-20 45.19
(UAE). So much so that policymakers
cent (UAE) and 7.9 per cent (Oman). Sep-20 41.54
are now well down the road towards
These forecasts have been borne out
diversification away from their heavy
dependence on the carbon-based
by anecdotal progress during the first Oct-20 40.08
economy. quarter of the year.
Nov-20 42.61
But demand for oil has also been The Bank’s forecast says economic
depressed as a result of the pandemic, progress will be modest during this Dec-20 49.17
as most of the major economies year, and its level will be “contingent
on containment of the pandemic, Jan-21 54.38
endured full or partial lockdowns.
Although growth has returned in stabilising oil prices, no further Feb-21 61.05
China and parts of Asia as they pull escalation of geopolitical tensions, and
themselves out of recession, the return the assumption of a vaccine rollout” Mar-21 65.28
of oil prices to above the $50 per during the year. It expects further
barrel mark has been slow and painful. restrained improvement in 2022. Source: opec.org
www.curriebrown.com6 Regional economy March 2021 Insight
In the Gulf, the easing situation as an exemplar of modern ‘green’
about oil prices and the impact of the thinking.
pandemic will enable policymakers to
The German energy giant The six Gulf Nations
return to their main priorities for the
decade ahead.
ThyssenKrupp is contributing to signed an accord
the development of a Saudi ‘green
For Saudi Arabia that means project’ that will produce hydrogen
in January which
continuing to diversify its economy from solar and wind power, supplying effectively reinstated
and build towards a future based on 20MW of power to Neom. The
renewable power and efforts to grow initiative is part of a massive 4GW
Qatar’s relationship
tourism income, trends that will be integrated renewable project, with the others,
reflected in other Gulf economies
such as the UAE and Qatar.
according to the business intelligence
body MEED.
particularly Saudi
Leaders in these countries will be Projects like this illustrate the speed
Arabia, after more than
anxious to get back to ‘business of change across Gulf economies three years of difficulty
as usual’ as they grapple with real
challenges that existed before
as they embrace new technologies
and head for low-carbon energy
within the group.
the pandemic. In Saudi Arabia solutions. The largest of them – the
considerable promotion of the Neom UAE and Saudi Arabia – have a
new city project is underway and raft of solar and other alternative
the government has placed it at the energy investments. Ultimately, they
centre of the Vision 2030 effort. will be relying far more heavily on
renewables for domestic energy,
In the UAE, the delayed Dubai Expo
while seeking to maintain income
will take place in autumn 2021 amid
from the export of oil and gas.
hopes that travel restrictions will
be lifted by then and that the event The six Gulf Nations signed an
will attract an international profile. accord in January which effectively
Qatar’s similar hopes depend partly reinstated Qatar’s relationship
on the FIFA World Cup due to be with the others, particularly Saudi
held there next year. Arabia, after more than three years
of difficulty within the group. The
KSA’s Crown Prince Mohammad bin
Al-Ulla Accord covered more than
Salman, who is heading the Vision
100 areas of co-operation, although
2030 drive, recently committed the
commentators have pointed out
Kingdom’s Public Investment Fund
that although relations may remain
(PIF) to spending $800 billion over aimed at attracting more foreign
strained for some time to come,
the coming decade. The prince has investment into Qatar. The state
Saudi Arabia has re-opened air, sea
launched a major project within has also made efforts to improve its
and land border links with Qatar.
Neom, known as The Line, which labour laws in response to criticism
aims to house one million people The arrival of President Biden in the of its treatment of immigrant workers
amid a high-tech urban development White House has signalled a new brought in to complete the stadium
that effectively bans the private car approach to Middle East politics, and portfolio and related infrastructure
and embraces the latest sustainable this will have an impact on relations projects for the football finals.
technologies. with Saudi Arabia and other powers.
PPP is taking hold in Bahrain, where
The Line is a 170km belt of The relaxation of tensions comes at a new urban metro rail scheme has
communities to be developed along a good time for Qatar, as noted by been approved. Bahrain’s transport
a high-speed rail line that will run MEED. Policymakers in Doha want and communications ministry wants
inland from the Red Sea. The key to use the World Cup as a means to recruit partners for the scheme,
element of Neom, which envisages of launching the country’s tourist with tendering of a first phase due to
a large number of communities with industry. Qatar had a growing tourism be launched this year.
no cars, is that people can walk to business from cruise ships pre-
most local services and use public pandemic and work is underway on a That phase will include two rail lines,
transport for longer journeys. $547 million re-development of Doha totalling 28.6km with 20 stations. The
Port, the aim being to create a tourist project, costing billions of dollars, will
The team behind the $500 billion ultimately include 109km with four
hub that might handle 500,000 cruise
Neom project expect to have three lines and using driverless technology.
passengers a year by 2026.
resort projects completed within three It will link major residential and
years, as part of a bid to establish The implementation of a new public- commercial areas as well as Bahrain
the city as a visitor attraction as well private partnership (PPP) law is also International Airport.
www.curriebrown.com7 Commodities March 2021 Insight
Price analysis
Commodities Unit Q2-2020 Q3-2020 Q4-2020 Q1-2021
Non-ferrous metals
Aluminium alloy US$/tonne 1,202.72 1,355.06 1,670.69 2,014.19
Aluminium US$/tonne 1,640.38 1,828.26 1,982.96 2,107.82
Copper US$/tonne 5,449.02 6,517.05 7,179.31 8,039.96
Lead US$/tonne 1,727.84 1,934.51 1,955.32 2,105.48
Nickel US$/tonne 12,591.76 14,555.87 16,177.09 18,398.73
Tin US$/tonne 15,599.29 17,608.05 18,734.14 23,171.74
Zinc US$/tonne 2,010.41 2,389.54 2,665.09 2,745.23
Steel
Reinforcing bars US$/tonne 451.67 471.67 515.00 685.00
Steel beams - channel US$/tonne 556.67 555.00 651.67 840.00
Hot rolled plates US$/tonne 486.67 551.67 600.00 757.50
Cold rolled coils US$/tonne 510.00 570.00 673.33 810.00
Prepainted galvanised steel, 0.35 US$/tonne 745.00 805.00 878.33 990.00
Stainless steel HR coils 304 base US$/tonne 1,833.33 1,883.33 2,083.33 2,175.00
Energy
Crude oil US$/barrel 26.63 43.38 43.95 57.72
Diesel (Dubai only) AED/gallon 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.70
Cement
Cement US$/bag 3.33 3.30 3.21 3.15
Cement (Dubai suppliers) AED/bag 12.33 12.22 11.89 11.67
Rubber
Rubber US$/100kg 142.69 171.95 225.92 221.39
Bitumen 60/70
Bitumen US$/tonne 493.24 493.24 493.24 493.24
■ All prices for commodities are based on bulk quantities, cash trade, US dollar.
■ Non-ferrous metal prices are derived from London Metal Exchange, whereas steel prices are derived from Middle East steel price
indications; all based on average prices for the month.
■ Reinforcing bars are based on the average price from four UAE suppliers.
■ The rate for steel beams – channel has been derived from Far East/Europe/India market.
■ Crude oil price is derived from light crude Brent, US market.
■ Diesel rates are from EPPCO.
■ The price of rubber is derived from International Rubber Board, based on average prices for the month.
■ Cement prices are derived from UAE local supplier.
www.curriebrown.com8 Commodities March 2021 Insight
Crude oil (2010 - 2020) Cement (2010 - 2020)
US$/barrel
US$/bag
Diesel (Dubai only) (2010 - 2020) Steel (2010 - 2020)
AED/gallon
US$/tonne
Low non-ferrous metals (2010 - 2020) Non-ferrous metals (2010 - 2020)
US$/tonne
US$/tonne
www.curriebrown.com9 Focus March 2021 Insight
3D printing in construction:
A revolution whose time has come
The revolution in 3D printing in around housing or small office and confronted the construction industry
construction has been a long time commercial projects. globally over many years. A machine-
in the making, but there is growing based approach to building could
Now Dubai has announced a typically
evidence that in this new decade its drastically reduce labour costs and
ambitious plan to establish itself as an
time has truly come. the timescales required for completion
important world centre for 3D printing-
– both major sources of expense in
The robotic technology that effectively based development.
construction. A by-product of having
enables the so-called ‘3D printing’ of In late 2019, the city revealed what far fewer on-site operatives will be the
buildings has reached the stage where it claimed to be the largest 3D-built significant reduction in safety risk.
it can be replicated relatively easily and office building of its kind, a two-storey
is capable of being operated in a wide For governments and public
administrative office – its structure
variety of conditions. authorities, in addition to private
completed by just three men and
clients, there may also be the benefit
In key markets such as China and the a single machine. More traditional
of lower-cost buildings. And that could
Middle East, exemplar projects have methods were used to construct its
have a positive effect in the battle to
attracted massive interest from the roof, install the doors and windows
produce affordable homes as new
construction industry. For designers and then the rest of the fit-out.
population centres appear in high-
and project managers, 3D printing Dubai has set a target for 25 per cent growth economies of the Gulf Co-
offers the prospect of simpler delivery of all new buildings to be based on 3D operation Council (GCC) region and
and a step change in flexibility. For printing technology by 2030 – a highly Asia Pacific.
major clients it can deliver high- ambitious aim for a city that enjoys
For generations, building contractors
volume projects with the added allure one of the world’s busiest property
have worked to reduce operational
of better control and certainty of cost. development markets.
costs, for example with the recent
Several Chinese companies have On the face of it, 3D printing appears rise of pre-fabrication and modular
unveiled various projects based to solve many of the issues that have construction off site.
www.curriebrown.com10 Focus March 2021 Insight
The 3D printing technologies most probably in the extent to which
available now are a quantum all the details of a typical home,
leap forward, a game changer office or commercial building can Although 3D printing
that to an extent bypasses those be produced using the method. As
developments. Here, giant machines those aspects develop, they will has been discussed
‘print’ buildings on top of foundations, reduce radically the amount of time as a likely construction
using a robotic nozzle to pump and expense demanded for the
concrete into pre-determined layering design of certain types of building, method for many years,
shapes. Prefabricated items, such as and on procurement of materials, for it is only during the
windows, are added later, although example.
it is expected that these too will last decade that the
This revolution will shift much of
ultimately be made using similar the production process off site, technology has become
techniques. but in a different way to the impact available.
Although 3D printing has been of pre-fabrication. Much of the
discussed as a likely construction process will become digital, from
method for many years, it is only design and physical production right
during the past decade that the through to monitoring and quality
technology has become available. control – with 3D printing machines
China has been host to several feeding massive data to an architect,
building initiatives, such as the engineer or project manager’s laptop
completion of a 500m retaining wall or phone. Key skills will include how
protecting against riverside erosion at we manage all that more easily
Suzhou, in Jiangsu province. acquired knowledge.
The company behind that project, Who might benefit from 3D printing
can get projects ‘right’, a massive
WinSun, was the first to claim that it in construction? The most obvious
investment in such technology should
had completed a full building – a five- early winners could be governments
produce speedy returns, simply
storey apartment block – in the same and housing authorities, whose duty
because of the huge efficiencies they
city, in 2015. is to produce affordable housing
bring.
for various key groups, from the
China is a leading example of a homeless to the growing workforces Their deployment should also reduce
country where 3D technology might of developing economies. Those health and safety costs, because
help tackle a growing problem – the economies are burgeoning, but of the smaller number of people
mass migration of millions from rural that growth brings with it particular needed on site. And there will be
to urban areas, in search of work problems: for example cities in Asia new demand for skills especially in IT
and a better life. Chinese cities have are growing so fast that a new and and project management, given the
swollen in size during recent decades young labour force is struggling to complexity of data required by the
as that trend accelerated. People find suitable accommodation. machines to deliver to design.
need cheaper, better housing.
In the Gulf, governments have to Buildings that have been constructed
To date, most 3D-built projects have meet the needs of a growing younger using 3D technology may also be
tended to be experimental, aimed population, especially in countries more sustainable. Apart from the
often at proving their concept as like Saudi Arabia where new cities efficiency of the process, designers
the industry watches closely. One are envisaged, such as Neom and can adapt to ensure that materials
example would be the US company Amaala. can be sourced locally, for example
Icon whose Vulcan 2 machinery is supporting jobs close to construction
claimed to be capable of building a Elsewhere in the Middle East –
and also reducing traffic and
house within 24 hours, and is piloting and especially in Syria, Lebanon
emissions.
and Yemen – 3D printing may be
an affordable housing scheme in
the technology to meet massive One key advantage over
Mexico.
housing demand as towns and cities conventional build is a significant
Today the pace of development of 3D are rebuilt, post-war or after other reduction in unit cost for the
printing in China, and initiatives such disasters. Displaced people need construction of multiple buildings to
as that launched in Dubai, reflect the homes to which they might return. a common design. That might be the
fact that 3D printing may have finally Across Africa, Asia and elsewhere difference between drawing the plan
‘come of age’ as a new and reliable there is a need for cheap, reliable and actually getting it funded and
construction method. There seems to and safe housing. completed.
be agreement that the industry is on
The 3D printing machines that make 3D printing machines can work 24/7.
the cusp of a revolution as a result.
buildings are large, complex and While we sleep, they can continue
So what difference might 3D expensive. But there is a sense that ‘building’ concrete walls and moving
printing make? The answer lies their time has come. If operators on to the next job, and the next.
www.curriebrown.com11 Offices March 2021 Insight
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