U.S. Media & Entertainment Industry - Rebooting The U.S. Media Sector In A Post Pandemic World - S&P Global

Page created by Adrian Cobb
 
CONTINUE READING
U.S. Media & Entertainment Industry - Rebooting The U.S. Media Sector In A Post Pandemic World - S&P Global
U.S. Media & Entertainment Industry
Rebooting The U.S. Media Sector In A Post Pandemic World

January 2020                                               Media & Entertainment Group:
                                                           Naveen Sarma, Senior Director
                                                           Jawad Hussain, CFA, Director
                                                           Vishal Merani, CFA, Director
                                                           Rose Oberman, CFA, Director
                                                           Samantha Stone, Director
U.S. Economics | Recession Takes Hold

                                        End of the cycle. The COVID-19 pandemic has brought the longest economic
                                        expansion in U.S. history to an abrupt end. In our baseline, we forecast GDP will drop
                                        by 3.9% in 2020, down from our pre-virus December forecast of a 1.9% gain and our
                                        June forecast of a 5.0% drop..
                                        Short and sharp. The COVID-19 recession was on par with the economic losses seen
                                        during the Great Recession, but over a much shorter time frame. In our deep
                                        recession scenario, downturn reemerges in the fourth quarter as COVID-19 case flare
                                        up and the bridge the government began building with stimulus only made it halfway
                                        to the other side.
                                        Policy response. As this sluggish recovery unfolds, three risks remain: no coronavirus
                                        vaccine yet available as U.S. heads into flu season, no new fiscal stimulus, and trade
                                        tensions with China on the rise.

                                                                                                                            2
Corporates | Diverging Paths to Recovery

                                           –   Higher leverage incurred during the pandemic will lead to a
                                               slow recovery of credit metrics in many sectors.
                                           –   Low interest rates and the long road to recovery puts financial
                                               policy as a key factor and variable that could further shape
                                               and delay the recovery timeline.

                                                                                                                 3
North America | Downgrade Potential By Sector

                                                             Current Negative Bias (Oct. 31, 2020)                                                                                         5-Year Averages

                                     Oil & Gas (59) Automotive(32)                                                                                                                                                  64%
                                                                                                                                                                             38%
                                                   Media/entert (159)                                                                                                                                         60%
                                                                                                                                           20%
                                                             Retail(59)                                                                                                                                      59%
                                                  Capital goods (71)                                                                                24%
                                            Aerospace/defense (24)                                                                                                                                51%                           –   Echoing the global trends, North American sectors including oil and gas,
                                                                                                                                                                31%
                                                  Transportation (31)                                                                                                                             51%                               auto, media, and lodging face the highest downgrade risk in the present
                                                                                                                                                  23%
                                           Consumer products (112)                                                                                                                          48%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    time.
                               CP&ES (51)                                                                                                   20%
                                                                                                                                                                                            48%                                     These sectors have seen:
                                             Metals/mining/steel (26)                                                            16%
                                                            Forest (28)                                                                                                              45%                                        –   Volatile market conditions affectingtheir business conditions (auto, oil
                                                                                                                                                          26%                                                                       and gas, lodging, as well as retail).
                                            Financial institutions (56)                                                                                                             44%
                                                     Health care (50)                                                                      20%                                                                                  –   Structural dislocation in the auto sector before the pandemic.
                                                                                                                                                                              39%
                                           Telecommunications (17)                                                                               22%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                –   Effects of travel bans and social distancing measures on the business
                                                          Utilities(40)                                                                                                 37%
                                                                                                                          12%                                                                                                       prospects of issuers in leisure, tourism and travelsectors.
                                                        Home/RE(22)                                                                                                    36%
                                                                                                                                              21%
                                                High technology(32)
                                                                                                                                                                 32%
                                                       Insurance(22)                                                                    18%
                                                                                                                                              21%25%
                                                                                                                                                       24%
                                                                                                                                  16%
                                                                                                                                     17%
                                                                                                                     10%
                                                                                                                            13%17%
                                                                                                                                 17%
                                                                                                                 9%

                                                      0%                                20%                                40%                            60%                                                             80%
Data as of Oct. 31, 2020 and include sectors with more than five issuers only; excludes Sovereign. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               4
U.S. Media & Entertainment | COVID-19 Related Rating Actions

  Pre-COVID as of Feb 1, 2020
  Current view as of November 25, 2020
  Source: S&P Global Ratings

U.S. has taken over 100 COVID-19 related ratings actions since February
 – 15% of ratings now ‘CCC+’ or below (compared to 8% pre-pandemic)
 – Three investment grade ratings actions – Expedia (BBB-/Negative/--) and Walt Disney (BBB+/Neg/A-2 (twice)
 – COVID-19 related defaults – AMC Entertainment and Cineworld
 – 47% of ratings have negative outlooks or CW Neg (20% prior to crisis), signaling further downside risk

                                                                                                               5
U.S. Media & Entertainment | Key 2021 Industry Themes & Concerns
Issue                                                                                                     What’s The Big Deal?              Sectors / Companies Affected

                                       Uncertainty as to whether national television remains the premium medium
Advertising trends and recalibration                                                                                                    • Transit
                                       Recovery of lagging sectors, especially transit
of secular trends                                                                                                                       • Local (TV, outdoor, radio)
                                       How do local markets perform – recovery or set back?
                                                                                                                                        •    Broadcast networks
                                       Is it better win but overpay OR lose but salvage financial metrics?                                                                          2021/2022 credit metrics
                                                                                                                                        •    TV station operators
Renewal of NFL broadcast contract      Winners will likely face weaker credit metrics due to depressed EBITDA and cash flow
                                                                                                                                        •    AT&T                          – Already elevated credit metrics
                                       What does this do to relationship between broadcast networks and TV station operators?
                                                                                                                                        •    Digital platforms               as many companies issued debt
                                       S&P targeting return to normalcy in 2H21 though gov’t imposed restrictions may delay recovery                                         to shore up liquidity during crisis
Pace of recovery for out of home                                                                                                        • Theme parks, live events,
                                       Uncertain how consumers will behave (roaring twenties or bunker mentality?)
sectors                                                                                                                                   concerts, theaters               – Streaming initiatives will depress
                                       Reaction will determine fate of those companies with elevated leverage
                                                                                                                                                                             margins and cash flows until
                                       Shrinking theatrical window                                                                                                           platforms gain scale and reach
                                                                                                                                        • Film studios
Film windowing                         Day and date strategy
                                                                                                                                        • Exhibitors                         cash flow breakeven
                                       Rebuilding fractured relationship between film studios and exhibitors
                                       Streaming strategies in full display with launches by all major media companies (finally)                                           – Will the recovery come in time for
Pivot to a streaming world             Differentiation in performance (ie, subscriber growth) of various streaming services             • Media companies                    low rated (B/CCC) companies?
                                       How long before we pick winners & losers?
                                       Was improved pace in 2020 an anomaly or is video penetration finding a new floor ?
Pace of cord cutting                                                                                                                    • Television
                                       Impact on television compounded by declining audience ratings
                                       Social media platforms under fire from regulators, legislators, & courts
Regulation of social media             Potential reform of section 230 of the1996 Communications Decency Act                            • Social platforms
                                       Antitrust lawsuits against Facebook and Google
                                       Pay-TV distributors versus out of favor linear networks                                          • Television
Distribution versus content
                                       New powers in distribution (Roku, Amazon, Apple)                                                 • Diamond Sports
                                       Consolidation to achieve scale – scale is increasingly key differentiator
M&A                                    Rationalizing noncore assets within existing portfolios and adding new capabilities and assets   • All of media
                                       Aided by availability of low cost financing and excess cash on the balance sheet

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   6
U.S. Media & Entertainment | Near-Term Recovery From Pandemic
• Advertising-based media
      – Current state: TV better than expected, radio in line, and outdoor weaker due to transit
      – Near term advertising trending positive (negative yr/yr but sequentially improving) for all media except transit
         o    Return of sports, especially NFL
         o    Scatter market pricing has returned to pre-COVID levels
         o    2020/2021 TV upfront nearly completed with prices up and volumes down
         o    Record political advertising in 3Q and 4Q masks underlying performance of local TV
         o    Solid growth in digital advertising – April was only declining month

• Out of home entertainment
      – Current state: Movie theaters, theme parks, & some sports events have re-opened but with limited attendance, live events (concerts, theater, conferences) still closed
      – Uncertain return path to normalcy:
         o    Timing will vary depending on type of business and geographic location
         o    Lifting of gov’t mandated social distancing measures could help pace of recovery but lingering consumer fears will ultimately affect return to normalcy
         o    Broad global second wave or local / regional virus flair ups could result in volatility
         o    S&P assumes vaccine will be widely available by middle of 2021

                                                                                                                                                                                 7
U.S. Media & Entertainment | Under Pressure From COVID-19 And Recession
           Media Subsectors                                                                        Ratings impact

                                                                                                  Long Term       Revenue     EBITDA                              Credit
                                                                                   Impact If No   Impact to      Decline - - Decline - -     Revenue            Metrics
                                                                                    Vaccine In     Business     2021 versus 2021 versus    Recovery To        Recover to
                                                  COVID- 19        Recession          2021          Profile        2019        2019        2019 Levels       2019 Levels
           Data/ professional publishers            Low               Low              Low          Neut ral      >=2019      >=2019       Lit t le impact   Lit t le impact
           Video gaming                             Low               Low              Low          Posit ive     >=2019      >=2019       Lit t le impact   Lit t le impact
           Music publishing                         Low               Low              Low          Neut ral      >=2019      >=2019       Lit t le impact   Lit t le impact
           Streaming service providers              Low               Low            Moderat e      Posit ive     >=2019      >=2019       Lit t le impact   Lit t le impact
           Local TV stations                        Low            Moderat e         Moderat e      Neut ral     0% t o 10% 0% t o 10%           1H21        Lit t le impact
                                                                                                  Moderat ely
           Broadcast networks                   Moderat e/ Low     Moderat e        Moderat e                   0% t o 10%   0% t o 10%        2021              2021
                                                                                                   Negat ive
           Cable TV networks                    Moderat e/ Low     Moderat e        Moderat e      Negat ive    10% t o 20% 10% t o 20%        2021              2021
                                                                                                  Moderat ely
           Radio stations                            Low              High             Low                      10% t o 20% 10% t o 20%        Never             2022
                                                                                                   Negat ive
           E- commerce services (non travel)    Moderat e/ Low   Moderat e/ Low        Low         Neut ral       >=2019      >=2019           2021              2021
           Ad- supported online content
                                                Moderat e/ Low   Moderat e/ Low Moderat e/ Low     Posit ive      >=2019      >=2019       Lit t le impact Lit t le impact
           platforms

           Ad agencies and marketing services
                                                Moderat e/ Low     Moderat e        Moderat e      Neut ral     0% t o 10%   0% t o 10%        2H21              2021
           companies
           Printing                               Moderat e     Moderat e/ Low   Moderat e         Neut ral     10% t o 20% 10% t o 20%        Never            2022+
           Educational publishing               Moderat e/ High   Moderat e      Moderat e         Neut ral     10% t o 20% 10% t o 20%        Never            Never
           Magazines & Newspapers               Moderat e/ Low      High        Moderat e/ Low     Neut ral     20% t o 30% 30% t o 40%        Never             2022
           Outdoor                              Moderat e/ High Moderat e/ High  Moderat e         Neut ral     20% t o 30%   >=50%            2023              2023
           Film and TV programming production Moderat e/ High Moderat e/ Low          High         Neut ral     10% t o 20% 10% t o 20%        2022              2022
           Trade shows and conferences               High        Moderat e/ High      High         Neut ral       >=50%        >=50%           2023              2023
           Motion picture exhibitors                 High            Low              High         Negat ive      >=50%        >=75%           2022              2022
           E- commerce services (travel)             High          Moderat e          High         Neut ral       >=50%        >=90%           2023             2022+
           Live events                               High          Moderat e          High         Neut ral       >=40%        >=40%           2022              2023
           Theme parks                               High            High             High         Neut ral       >=50%        >=90%          2022+              2023

                                                                                                                                                                               8
U.S. Media & Entertainment | Revenue Exposure To COVID-19 (2019 Mix)

                                            Affiliate Advertising                                                Merchandise                SVOD                     Other
                                                                                     Theme Content                                                   Cable /
        Company                                                                                       Theatrical licensing and Publishing                      SMB
                                                Total                        Total    parks licensing                                       Total   Telecom          Total
                                                                                                                     retail
 AMC Networks                                    66%                          32%      0%       0%       0%           0%          0%        1%        0%       0%     0%
 AT&T                                            7%                           4%       0%       4%       3%           0%          0%        0%        79%      0%     2%
 Charter                                         0%                           3%       0%       0%       0%           0%          0%        0%        88%      8%     0%
 Comcast                                         8%                           13%      5%       8%       1%           0%          0%        0%        56%      7%     1%
 Discovery                                       43%                          54%      0%       0%       0%           0%          0%        0%        0%       0%     2%
 Fox Corp                                        48%                          43%      0%       0%       0%           0%          0%        0%        0%       0%     9%
 Lions Gate                                      35%                          0%       0%      24%      38%           0%          0%        1%        0%       0%     2%
 Netflix                                         0%                           0%       0%       0%       0%           0%          0%        99%       0%       0%     1%
 ViacomCBS                                       31%                          40%      0%      23%       2%           0%          3%        0%        0%       0%     1%
 Walt Disney                                     23%                          15%      29%     11%       7%           6%          0%        3%        0%       0%     5%

  Content licensing includes TV/SVOD licensing and home entertainment
  Comcast SMB exposure includes all of business services
  Last annual reports for all companies
  Disney of September 28, 2019. Does not fully consolidate 21CF
  AMC, AT&T, Charter, Discovery, Netflix, and ViacomCBS as of December 31, 2019
  Fox as of June 30, 2020
  Lions Gate as of March 31, 2020
  Source: company reports, S&P estimates

                                                                                                                                                                             9
U.S. Media & Entertainment | Longer Term Impact Of Pandemic
• Consumer and business behavior changes after every significant crisis – the COVID pandemic is no different
• Secular trends accelerating
      –   Audience fragmentation
      –   Accelerating decline of video bundle (cord cutting)
      –   Decline of general entertainment and premium cable networks
      –   Advertising mix shifts further towards digital platforms
      –   Uncertainty surrounding national television as the premium medium
• Every crisis brings opportunities
      – In-home entertainment – video gaming, streaming video services
      – New monetization windows (PVOD) / shortened theatrical release window
      – Cost optimization / cost reduction
• Long term impact to credit ratings still to be determined
      – In what condition will businesses/companies emerge from this pandemic
      – S&P views on media sectors could change, potentially resulting in revised ratings thresholds

                                                                                                               10
U.S. Media & Entertainment | 2021 Advertising Recovery Driven By Digital
                                                           Excluding Digital, Advertising Doesn't Return to 2019 Level
                                                                                                                                                                                             Segment     2020f    2021e
                                   140%

                                                                                                                                                                                     Digital             5.0%     +14.0%

                                   130%                                                                                                                                              Local TV (incl
                                                                                                                                                                                                         +5.7%    -5.2%
                                                                                                                                                                                     political
   Revenue as a % of 2019 Levels

                                   120%                                                                                                                                              Network TV          -10.0%   +10.9%

                                                                                                                                                                                     Cable TV            -12.5%   +8.2%
                                   110%

                                                                                                                                                                                     Total TV            -10.0%   +5.1%
                                   100%
                                                                                                                                                                                     Radio               -23.5%   +18.0%

                                   90%                                                                                                                                               Outdoor             -21.5%   +17.5%

                                                                                                                                                                                     Advertising (ex
                                   80%                                                                                                                                                                   -19.9%   +6.9%
                                                                                                                                                                                     digital)

                                                                                                                                                                                     Total advertising   -9.4%    +10.3%
                                   70%
                                               2019                                                         2020                                       2021                   2022
                                                                                                                                                                                     U.S. GDP            -4.0%    +3.9%
                                                        Digital                                                   Local television (incl. political)    Network television*
                                                        Cable television*                                         Total television                      Radio
                                                        Outdoor                                                   Advertising, excluding Digital        Total advertising

                                          Local TV includes political; network and cable include Olympics in 2021e
                                          Source: “Reassessing The Pace Of Recovery For U.S. Media”, published October 20, 2020

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          11
U.S Media & Entertainment | Pivot To Content-Centric Model Offers Flexibility

                                                                                              Media companies will increasingly prioritize distributing new
       Primary Monetization                                          Secondary Monetization   content via streaming platforms over traditional distribution
                                                                                              media (theatrical release, television).
                                                                                               – Some streaming content may get shown
     Film (theatrical release)                                     Consumer Products           secondarily on television and AVOD services to
                                                                                                 drive consumer traffic to SVOD streaming
     Linear TV                                                     Experiences                 platforms (reverse of Breaking Bad)

     Sell to third party                                           Gaming                    – Media companies will continue to pursue ways
                                            IP / Content                                         to expand monetization of owned IP. Disney
     Streaming services                                            International               remains the model for its peers.
        o AVOD                                                      Publishing
        o SVOD/Hybrid                                               Theater
                                                                    Theme parks
                                                                    Third party promotions

                                                                                                                                                      12
US. Media & Entertainment | Relative Global Positioning
                                                                                            We believe general entertainment SVOD services can achieve
                                                                                            profitability and free cash flow with economies of scale (global
                                                                                            reach and scaled content)
 G                                                                                           – Only AT&T (Warner Media) and Walt Disney have
  l                                                                                            scale in owned content though AT&T has yet to
 o                                                                                             pursue global reach.
                                                                                             – Netflix continues to aggressively build out its
 b          In For The                                                                         global library even as it loses its licensed content
 a          Long Haul?                                                                         back to the studios.
  l                                                                                          – Midsized studios lack depth / breadth of content,
                                                                                               leaving them in strategic no man’s land.
                                                                                             – While the tech companies have global reach, they
 R
          Niche Strategies                                                                     have yet to commit to building scale in content
 e                                                                                             and we have yet to be convinced that they want
 a                                                                                             media for more than as a retention tool.
                                                                                             – Companies with smaller content libraries will find it
 c                                                                                             increasingly tough to go it alone.
 h                                                                        DTC Powerhouses

                                                          No Man’s Land

                                            Scale of owned content
                                                                                                                                                       13
U.S. Media & Entertainment | Consumers Faced With A Crowded SVOD Universe
                         Niche SVOD                                                                    General SVOD
                        NHL.TV MLB.TV NFL Sunday Ticket

                                NBA Team/League Pass
                                                                                                                                                                   Strategy      Market size   Willing-ness     Content     Brand differe-
                                                                                                                                                                                                  to pay      invest-ment      ntiation
                                                                                                                                                            $20
           Fox Soccer Match Pass DAZN

                                                                                                                                                                   GE SVOD          High          High           High           High

                                                                                                                                                            $15
                                                                                                                                   HBO MAX
                                                                                                                                                                   GE AVOD        Medium        Medium         Medium         Medium
                                                                                                                                    Netflix
                                NBC Sports Gold                                         YouTube Premium                            Hulu
                                Criterion Channel                                              Showtime                                                                             Low           High         Medium           High
                                                                                                                                                            $10    Niche SVOD
           WWE Network BET+     Bleacher Report Live                                                                       Paramount+
                                                                                          Starz              Prime Video
    DC Universe Noggin                                                                   Quibi
Crunchyroll     Food Network Kitchen                                          Disney+                                                                              Niche AVOD       Low           Low            Low            Low
  Sundance Now Fandor Shudder           Acorn TV Fox Nation                             EPIX Now         Paramount+                    Hulu
             Boomerang Urban Movie       ESPN+ History Vault         AMC+                Quibi Hallmark Movies Now         Apple TV+                        $5
                                                                                                                                                                       OTT--Over the top. SVOD--Subscriber video on demand. AVOD--
                                                                                                                Peacock                                                Ad-supported video on demand. GE--General entertainment.
CuriosityStream

                         Niche AVOD                                                                    General AVOD                                         Free
        MotorTrend Go   Cartoon Network
         Laugh          CBS Sports HQ CBSN                                    Vudu                                         IMDb TV
          Out                                       DiscoveryGO                                    Crackle                 YouTube
                                                                                                             tubi
                              Entertainment                                             Pluto TV                           Roku Channel
                                 Tonight                                      Xumo

                         More Niche                                                                                             General Entertainment Focused
                                              Indicates hybrid service having both subscription and ad-revenue
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        14
U.S. Media & Entertainment | Not All Will Succeed

Parent company                         Apple                            Amazon.com                  Discovery                 Walt Disney                   AT&T                    Walt Disney               Netflix            ViacomCBS                  Comcast

                                                                                                                                                                                                           $8.99 (Basic)       CBS All Access:        Free (ad-supported)
                                                                                                      $4.99                                                                           $5.99
Monthly sub price                      $4.99                                $8.99                                                 $7.99                    $14.99                                         $14.99 (Stndrd)          $5.99                  $4.99 (Prem)
                                                                                                  $6.99 (ad-free)                                                                $11.99 (ad-free)
                                                                                                                                                                                                           $17.99 (Prem)       $9.99 (ad-free)        $9.99 (Prem ad-free)

Advertising                             No                                   No                         Yes                        No                      Planned                      Yes                     No                   Yes                       Yes
                                                                                                                                                                                                            1 (Basic)
Streams
                                         6                                    2                        TBD                          4                         3                          1                  2 (Stndrd)               TBD                        3
Download
                                                                                                                                                                                                             4 (Prem)

                                                                                                                          Disney, Pixar, Marvel,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            CBS, Viacom Showtime,
                                                                  Originals, 3rd party TV    Discovery, Scripps, A+E,        21CF, National                                     Disney, 21CF, FXX,            Originals,                                  NBCU content,
                                                                                                                                                            HBO                                                                    exclusive
                                                                   shows & movies, NFL                 BBC               Geographic & Lucasfilm                               originals, third party TV    third party TV                                   The Office,
Available Content                Original content                                                                                                   content, Warner Bros                                                       original content
                                                                 Thursday Night, 3rd party      50 series at launch             content.                                             shows and               shows and                               Live sports (Olympics) &
                                                                                                                                                   owned & original content                                                 Over 30,000 episodes &
                                                                      SVOD services              55,000 episodes         11,700 episodes & 700                                         movies                  movies                                          news
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    movies
                                                                                                                                 movies

                                                                                              U.S., Nordics, Italy, 26     U.S., Europe, India,                                      U.S. and              190 countries      U.S., Canada, and
Availability (Year launched)     >100 countries                         >200 countries                                                                      U.S.                                                                                              U.S.
                                                                                                 markets in 2021             Japan, LATAM                                             Japan                 (not China)            Australia

U.S. Mobile Service Partner                                                                           Verizon                    Verizon                    AT&T                                             T-Mobile

Est. users (mil.)                       10+                                 100+                        5.2                       73.7                       38                          37                195 (US 73)               11+                       22

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                15
                               Source: Company reports, S&P estimates
U.S. Media & Entertainment | Assessing Media Companies’ Streaming Strategies
 Company                    OTT Strategy            Key DTC brands          Brand            Content    Owned IP   Cash   Overall                                  Comments
                                                                           strength           library              Flow   position

                                                                                                                                     •   Tech platform is gold standard
 Netflix                  Broad reach (SVOD)              Netflix             H                 M         M/L       L        H       •   Not owning a studio isn’t a strategic weakness, at the moment
                                                                                                                                     •   Moving toward free cash flow

                           Segmented across           Disney+, Hulu,                                                                 •   Strongest IP and brands
 Walt Disney                multiple services          ESPN+, Star
                                                                              H                 H          H        M        H       •   Track record of global success with Disney+
                                                                                                                                                                                                            While it’s still too early to pick winners and losers, media
                                                                                                                                     •   Is HBO the right brand name?                                       companies are pursuing streaming strategies that reflect
                           Broad (SVOD with
 AT&T (Warner Media)                                    HBO Max              H/M                H          H        H       H/M      •   Could be very successful given Warner library and strong brands
                            Hybrid planned)                                                                                                                                                                 their IP and content libraries.
                                                                                                                                     •   Pricing versus peers

                          Tiered approach, with                                                                                      •   Hired gun strategy reflects smaller IP                             Key factors for success will include:
                                                      Paramount+,
 ViacomCBS                 premium, SVOD, &                                  M/L                M          M       M/L       M       •   DTC strategy (SVOD, AVOD) hits all four quadrants
                                                    Showtime, Pluto TV                                                                                                                                       – Scale & subscriber growth
                                  AVOD                                                                                               •   Risk of underinvestment due to limited financial flexibility
                                                                                                                                                                                                             – Branding & consumer awareness
                                                    Discovery+, FNK,                                                                 •   Can Discovery+ expand beyond niche?
 Discovery                  Niche but global                                 H/M                M          M        M        M
                                                      Eursport, Golf                                                                 •   Unique watch and buy strategy                                       – Profitability & cash flow

                                                                                                                                     •   AVOD service linked to cable service reflects desire to defend
 Comcast (NBCUniversal)      Hybrid/AVOD                Peacock               M                 M          M        H       H/M          core cable business
                                                                                                                                     •   Is size of library sufficient?

                                                          Tubi                                                                       •   DTC currently limited to Fox Nation and Tubi
 Fox                             Niche                                        H                 L          L        M        L
                                                       Fox Nation                                                                    •   Potential to offer sports DTC service

                                                         AMC+,                                                                       •   Niche strategy, difficult to replace lost revenues and cash flow
 AMC Networks                    Niche                                       M/L               M/L         L        L        L
                                                    Sundance, Shudder                                                                    from declining linear TV operations

                                         Rankings not reflective of current credit ratings

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                16
U.S. Media & Entertainment | SVOD Services Feeding U.S. Video Content “Bubble”

600
                 Estimated Number of Scripted Original Series
                                                                                532
         Online Services                                            487   495
500
                                                              455
         Broadcast
                                                        421         117                Fierce competition      New content production levels finally returning to normalized levels
         Pay Cable                                389         93          160             to differentiate
400                                                     49                                                     with complex TV and film productions still delayed
                                            349   33                                                           Broadcast networks reducing output from 2015 peak as basic cable
         Basic Cable
                                            24                                                                 abandons originals
300                                   288               150                           Capped by primetime      SVOD services aggressively expanding original series offerings
                                266   15          148         145   153                      hours
                                 6          131                           146                                   – Old media will increasingly prioritize new content to online
               210     216                                                                                        platforms over traditional distribution media
                1       4             119               37
200     182                     116               34          36    42                Will increase modestly
                                                                                                               How much original content is necessary for the SVOD services?
                                            33                                          as focus shifts to
                       113                                                45                 streaming
               122                    29
        135                     33
                                                                                       Dimishing value for
100                    25                         174   186   181   175                 originals on basic
                21                          161                           144
                                111   125                                                     cable
        17      66     74
        30
  0
       2002 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
 Source: FX Networks Research

                                                                                                                                                                                  17
U.S. Media & Entertainment | Sports Is Glue Holding Video Bundle Together
      2018    2019        2020     2021        2022     2023    2024     2025   2026   2027   2028   2029   2030   2031   2032   2033   2034

         NHL (NBC)                                                                                                                             Commitment to sports is double-edged sword
         Belmont Stakes (NBC)
         MLB (ESPN)                                                                                                                             – Over $150 billion in sports rights commitments
         NFL Monday Night (ESPN)
         MLS (Disney, Fox)
                                                                                                                                                – High profile major sports rights available in 2021 (NHL, MLB)
         NFL Sunday (CBS, Fox, NBC)
                                                                                                                                                – NFL accounted for 65 of top 100 TV telecasts in 2019
         NFL Thursday (Fox)
         NFL Sunday Ticket (DTV)                                                                                                                – Sports not immune to declining audience ratings (NFL down 6% through
         WNBA (ESPN)
                                                                                                                                                  midpoint of 2020/2021 season)
         Preakness (NBC)
         Premier League (NBC)
                                                                                                                                               When will digital platforms challenge broadcast networks for premium sports rights?
         Formula One (ESPN)
         UFC (Disney)                                                                                                                           – Network TV still only distribution platform offering full national reach
         Wimbledon (ESPN)
         SEC football (CBS)                                                                                                                     – Need to gain production experience and develop stable and scalable streaming
         Big Ten (ESPN, Fox)                                                                                                                      platform for live video
         French Open (NBC)
         NASCAR (Fox, NBC)                                                                                                                      – May become attractive for second tier sports leagues
         PAC-12football (ESPN, Fox)
         WWE (Fox, NBC)
                                                                                                                                                – Sports leagues continue to experiment with streaming platforms – CBS All
         Champions League (CBS beg in 2021)                                                                                                       Access (UEFA Champions League), Facebook (La Liga and MLB) and Amazon
         NBA (Disney, Turner)                                                                                                                     (TNF and EPL)
         USTA US Open (ESPN)
         Big 12 football (ESPN, Fox)
         Notre Dame Football (NBC)
         Kentucky Derby (NBC)
         FIFA Soccer (Fox, Televisa)
         BCS playoffs (ESPN)
         MLB (Fox, Turner)
         PGA (CBS, NBC)
         PGA Championship (CBS, ESPN)
         NCAA Basketball (CBS, Turner)
         Olympics (NBC)
         SEC football (ESPN beg in 2023)

                                       Source: Company reports, S&P estimates

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     18
U.S. Media & Entertainment | Television’s Future Is Tied To The NFL
          NFL Package                    Expiration Date      Average Annual   Current   ‘19 Ad Rev   Avg. Viewers                               Comments                              Existing contracts expire after 2021/2022 (MNF) and 2022/2023 seasons
                                                                   Price       Partner      Share      (vs. 2019)
                                                                                                                                                                                        – 2020 NFL ratings down 7% versus 2019 season (through week 13)
                                                                                                                                                                                        – New players’ collective bargaining agreement through 2030 season
                                                                                                                                                                                       Is it better to overpay or to lose contract?
  Thursday Night                             2022/2023           $660mm         FOX          --          -13%        • Unlikely to attract other bidders than Fox
                                                                                                                                                                                        – Cost escalation for next contracts lowers EBITDA and depletes free
                                                                                                                                                                                          cash flow generation
  AFC Sunday                                 2022/2023          $1,030mm        CBS        24%            -3%                                                                           – Loss of NFL contract hits audience ratings, advertising, and
                                                                                                                                                                                          contractual leverage over distributors
  NFC Sunday                                 2022/2023          $1,100mm        FOX        39%#           -1%                                                                          Potential outcomes:
                                                                                                                                                                                        – New media companies unlikely to win broadcast contracts but could
                                                                                                                     • NFL has opt out option after 2019 season                           expand digital streaming rights
  Sunday Ticket                              2022/2023          $1,500mm       DIRECTV       --            --
                                                                                                                     • Opportunity for streaming service to win?                        – Reshuffling of rights owners as Disney may aggressively pursue
                                                                                                                                                                                          additional broadcast packages
                                                                                                                                                                                        – Will the NFL encourage Warner Media (TNT/TBS) to bid?
                                                                                                                     • #1 broadcast show on television
  Sunday Night                               2022/2023           $950mm         NBC        21%           -18%
                                                                                                                     • Super Bowl broadcast and flex schedule rights                    – Credit ratings impact will depend on price paid and importance of NFL
                                                                                                                                                                                          to business

                                                                                                                     • Most expensive on a per viewership basis
  Monday Night                               2021/2022          $1,900mm        ESPN       17%            -4%        • Does not include Super Bowl broadcast rights but does include
                                                                                                                       Pro Bowl and NFL draft

Ratings are P2+, L+SD through first 13 weeks of 2020 season
Fox ad share includes both Thursday and Sunday NFL
Source: The Washington Post, company reports, S&P estimates

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  19
U.S. Media & Entertainment | Ranking 13 Major U.S. Media, Telecom, & Cable Companies
                                    Rating                         Business Risk Profile                Current LTM Adjusted                     Upgrade Threshold    Downgrade      Implied BBB
                                                                                                              Leverage                                                Threshold   Downside Threshold*   The battle for consumers' attention spans has intensified. While
                                                                                                                                                                                                        much of the attention has been focused on the impact on the
Comcast                         A-/Stable/A-2                               Strong                                 3.0x                                   2.0x          3.0x             4.0x           media and entertainment sector, the convergence of the media,
                                                                                                                                                                                                        telecom, and cable sectors means that these secular pressures
Walt Disney                 BBB+/Negative/A-2                               Strong                                 5.2x                                   3.0x          3.5x             4.0x           are affecting the entire coverage sector.
                                                                                                                                                                                                        – Media companies have finally conceded that the pay-TV
Equinix                        BBB-/Stable/--                               Strong                                 3.7x                                  3.75x          4.25x            3.75x            ecosystem is dying and have been forced to
                                                                                                                                                                                                          experiment with their DTC services.
Charter Communications          BB+/Stable/--                               Strong                                 4.4x                                   4.0x          4.75x            3.75x
                                                                                                                                                                                                        – The cable companies, while experiencing worsening
Verizon                      BBB+/PositiveA-2                               Strong                                 2.5x                                   2.5x          3.25x            3.75x            video subscriber losses, have benefitted from this trend
                                                                                                                                                                                                          because they have the best and fastest broadband
AT&T                          BBB/Stable/A-2                                Strong                                 3.4x                                   3.0x          3.75x            3.75x            internet pipe into the home.
                                                                                                                                                                                                        – The wireline industry, with its dependence on inferior
Netflix                          BB/Stable/--                            Satisfactory                              2.8x                                     --           --               --              copper plant, continues to lose its broadband customers
                                                                                                                                                                                                          to the cable sector at an alarming rate.
Cox Enterprises               BBB/Stable/A-2                             Satisfactory                              2.9x                                  2.25x          3.25x            3.25x
                                                                                                                                                                                                        – The wireless industry remains poised to reap the long-
ViacomCBS                    BBB/Negative/A-2                            Satisfactory                              3.9x                                  2.25x          3.0x             3.0x             term benefits from 5G, which will combine mobility with a
                                                                                                                                                                                                          faster broadband pipe.
Fox                             BBB/Stable/--                            Satisfactory                              1.2x                                   2.0x          3.0x             3.0x

Discovery                     BBB-/Stable/A-3                            Satisfactory                              3.4x                                  2.75x          3.5x             3.0x

Sinclair                      BB-/Negative/--                            Satisfactory                              N/A                                    4.5x          5.5x             3.0x

Nexstar                         BB-/Stable/--                            Satisfactory                              N/A                                    4.5x          5.5x             3.0x

                         Note: Ratings as of Dec 22, 2020
                         Adjusted Leverage as of Sept 30, 2020 except AT&T and Cox,. Disney’s leverage is estimated.
                         Thresholds for Netflix based on cash flow-to-debt metrics.
                         Leverage for Sinclair and Nexstar elevated due to recent acquisitions                                                                                                                                                                             20
                         See “Amid Secular Pressures, Most U.S. Media Companies' Long-Term Prospects Have Diminished Somewhat” article, published February 19, 2020
Copyright © 2020 by Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC. All rights reserved.

No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software, or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced, or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in
a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P). The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P and any third-party providers, as well as
their directors, officers, shareholders, employees, or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions (negligent or otherwise),
regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an "as is" basis. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES,
INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT'S FUNCTIONING WILL BE
UNINTERRUPTED, OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or
consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs or losses caused by negligence) in connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages.

Credit-related and other analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact. S&P's opinions, analyses, and rating acknowledgment decisions (described below) are not
recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions, and do not address the suitability of any security. S&P assumes no obligation to update the Content following publication in any form or format. The Content should not be
relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment, and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors, and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. S&P does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor except where
registered as such. While S&P has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable, S&P does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives.

 To the extent that regulatory authorities allow a rating agency to acknowledge in one jurisdiction a rating issued in another jurisdiction for certain regulatory purposes, S&P reserves the right to assign, withdraw, or suspend such acknowledgment at any time and in its
sole discretion. S&P Parties disclaim any duty whatsoever arising out of the assignment, withdrawal, or suspension of an acknowledgment as well as any liability for any damage alleged to have been suffered on account thereof.

S&P keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respective activities. As a result, certain business units of S&P may have information that is not available to other S&P business
units. S&P has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain nonpublic information received in connection with each analytical process.

S&P may receive compensation for its ratings and certain analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of securities or from obligors. S&P reserves the right to disseminate its opinions and analyses. S&P's public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web
sites, www.standardandpoors.com (free of charge), and www.capitaliq.com (subscription), and may be distributed through other means, including via S&P publications and third-party redistributors.

Additional information about our ratings fees is available at www.standardandpoors.com/usratingsfees.

STANDARD & POOR'S, S&P and RATINGSDIRECT are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 21
You can also read