A Tale of Two Markets: Gulf Coast & the Rest - S&P Global Platts
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Bradley Olsen
bolsen@tudorpickering.com
(713) 333-7693
A Tale of Two Markets: Gulf Coast & the Rest
Northeast, Canadian Markets Cut Off From Export Boom
Platts NGL Conference: September 29, 2014 – Houston, TX
**IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 18 OF THIS REPORT**
After 2011-2013 NGL Tidal Wave…
Belvieu prices set to improve: With LPG exports ramping,
Belvieu prices improve steadily through 2018. Ethane cracking
& exports improve price through 2020 and beyond.
Northeast, Canadian markets lack access to Gulf: Pricing will
be weak. East and West Coasts need a different escape hatch
— export projects, pipes will take longer.
Currently waiting on long-haul pipes: Liquid USGC NGL
markets more attractive to petchems vs. Canadian and
Northeast markets. E&Ps are nervous about oversupplying
USGC, so are slow to subscribe to large-scale projects.
USGC pricing will improve steadily 2014-17: NGLs hit 50%
before ethane exports drag Belvieu pricing to 55% of WTI by
2020. Meanwhile, Northeast NGLs likely to remain around 20-
25% of WTI until pipes arrive, if they arrive.
2
With Oil at $90/bbl, US NGL Supply Growth is Inelastic
Gas Price Required for 10% ATROR with NGL Sensitivity
$6.00
$6.00
NGLs from gas stream:
2.9 MMBPD April 2014
$5.00
$5.00
4.3 MMBPD TPHe 2020
$4.00
$4.00
+1,800 MBPD growth
through 2020
$/mcf
$/mcf
$3.00
$3.00
~1,650 rigs, active ~250 marginal rigs active
with gas >$3/mcf
$2.00
$2.00
~400 MBPD declines
$1.00
$1.00 through 2020
$0.00
$0.00
NGL Assumption
*Economics assume $87/bbl WTI
30% WTI 40% WTI
Source: TPH Research
Distance, Economics have cut off NE & Canada from Belvieu
Edmonton
~200 MBPD proposed LPG
Canada’s main C3 export Exports (vs. >400 supply)
line has been reversed. ~140 MBPD proposed C2
Exports
Philadelphia
EPD - ATEX (TE Prods Reversal)
EPD - TE Products (Belvieu-Chicago-Northeast)
EPD – MAPL (Rockies-Permian-Conway-Midwest)
Pipes to Gulf are
EPD – Dixie (Belvieu-Southeast)
EPD – Various NGL Pipes (S. TX-E. LA)
EPD – Seminole (Permian-Belvieu)
ethane only, offering
EPD – Chaparral (Permian-Belvieu)
EPD – Skelly-Belvieu (TX Panhandle-Belvieu) poor netbacks.
EPD/EEP/APC/DCP – Texas Express* (TX Panhandle-Belvieu)
OKS – Bakken Pipeline (Bakken-Rockies)
OKS – Overland Pass (Rockies-Midcon)
OKS – Sterling (Midcon-Belvieu)
OKS – Arbuckle (Midcon-Belvieu)
All roads lead to the
KMP – Cochin (Edmonton-Midwest-Sarnia)
EPD – Eagle Ford (Eagle Ford-Belvieu) Gulf Coast…pending
OKS – North (Conway-Midwest-Chicago)
COP – Line EZ (Permian-Belvieu)
CVX – W. Texas LPG (Permian-Barnett-Belvieu)
Northeast &
ETP/RGP – Lone Star NGL (Permian-E. Texas-Belvieu)
ETP/RGP – W. TX Gateway (Permian-Eagle Ford-Belvieu)
SXL/MWE – Mariner West (Marcellus-Sarnia)
Canadian exports.
PBA – Vantage Pipeline (Bakken-Alberta)
EPD/APC/DCP - Front Range* (DJ Basin-TX Panhandle)
DCP – Southern Hills (Midcon-Belvieu)
DCP - Wattenberg Pipeline (Rockies-Midcon) ~1,140 MBPD Proposed LPG Exports
DCP – Sand Hills (Permian-Eagle Ford-Belvieu)
DCP – Black Lake (E. LA-Belvieu)
SXL – Mariner South (Belvieu-Nederland)
~ 800 MBPD Petchem Demand for C2 & C3
SXL – Mariner East (Marcellus-Marcus Hook Export)
ETP – Justice NGl (S. TX-Belvieu) ~67% Demand Growth By 2020 4
Northbound Diluent Strands Canadian NGLs
Canada— cut off by
pipe conversions to
diluent.
Only outlets for
Canadian NGLs are
export projects on
West Coast.
Canadian/Pac NW LPG Export Projects
In absence of pipe to Project Operator Startup LPG (MBPD)
Idemitsu/Altagas Ferndale, WA Petrogas 2015 20
West Coast, Longview, WA Sage Q4 2016 45
Canadian projects Portland, OR Pembina 2018 37
rely on high-cost rail Total NGL/LPG Exports 102
% of Total NAM LPG Capacity 7%
transportation.
5
Source: Company Presentation
NORTHEAST OVERSUPPLY
PIPELINE SCARCITY ENSURES RAIL &
TRUCKING SET MARGINAL PRICE FOR
FORSEEABLE FUTURE
6
Battle for NE C3+: ~700 MBPD Proposed, 40 Committed
3-4 Projects Compete for Heavy NGL Volumes
2-3 pipes to USGC: 2 y-grade, 1 propane Philadelphia
1 pipe to Philly: purity NGLs/other Pro: Cheaper pipe cost, less LPG traffic
Con: Likely higher cost fractionation
capacity, higher cost to Asia
What’s at stake?
Projects still leave NE long NGls, price
set by cost of shipping to USGC.
With >600MBPD of future ethane and
US Gulf Coast >500MBPD future C3+ production,
Pro: Liquidity, storage, world-scale docks market will require multiple C3+
Con: limited ex-ethane LPG demand growth solutions; today none are finalized.
7
Never say never but…
Ethane in Northeast Will Never be Economic
ATEX Contracting
ATEX ethane netback has
been
While Waiting for Takeaway, NE NGL Discounts Will Widen
Northeast NGL markets will see discounts of $20 or netbacks of>10 bcf/d Processing Produces ~1.1 MMBPD of NGLs by 2017…
Northeast wet gas processing capacity will nearly double from beginning of 2014 to
YE 2015 to approximately 10 bcf/d based on announced newbuild and expansion
projects.
12
1 Bcf/d of incremental
processing capacity announced
10
YTD in the Utica, with 0.6
Bcf/d in the Marcellus
Processing Capacity (mmcf/d)
8
6
4
2
0
Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16
MWE Marcellus WMB Caiman Blue Racer/DOM XTO Marcellus
MWE/EMG Utica M3/Access Utica NI Utica KMP Utica
Source: Company Presentations, Public Filings, TPH Estimates 10GULF COAST DEMAND
>$100B OF MEGAPROJECTS ON GULF
COAST DRIVES DEMAND FROM PETCHEMS &
EXPORTS THROUGH END OF DECADE
11~800 MBPD Growth in US Ethane Cracker, PDH Demand by 2020
1,400
PDH Projects Tentative projects
1,200 could add additional
Cracker Newbuilds ~400MBPD of demand
Ethane/Propane Demand (MBPD)
1,000 near end of decade.
Cracker Expansions
800 Potential Newbuilds
600
400
200
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
WMB Geismar LYB Midcon LYB Corpus Christi
LYB La Porte DOW Freeport 7 WLK Lake Charles/Calvert City
INEOS Chocolate Bayou DOW Plaquemine BASF Port Arthur
Formosa DOW Freeport 8 XOM Baytown
OXY Ingleside CPC Texas DOW Freeport Newbuild
SSL Louisiana Ascend TX- PDH 2015 EPD - PDH 2016
DOW - PDH 2015 DOW - PDH 2018 Formosa TX - PDH 2017
Potential Demand
*Potential demand includes estimates for Axiall/Lotte, Shell, Odebrecht, Shin-Etsu, & 12
Williams projects.LPG Exports Set to Increase >1MMBPD through 2020
LPG Export Capacity (MBPD)
1,600
1,400
Total Arabian Gulf
1,200 Exports
1,000
800
Qatar, world’s
600 current #1 exporter
400
200
0
Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18
EPD Targa EPD 2013 Expansion Targa Sept 2013 Expansion
Targa Q3 2014 Mariner East I EPD 2015 Expansion Mariner South
OXY Corpus EPD Phase 2: OTI PSX Sweeny Terminal Mariner East II
Gulf Coast Blue Northeast Red
13
Source: Company Releases>$100B in Gulf Coast export projects before 2020
Project Invest. ($B) Capacity Labor In-service Project Invest. ($B) Capacity Labor In-service
Golden Pass 10.0 2.6Bcfd 3,500 2018 Trunkline LNG 11.0 2.4Bcfd 4,000 2019
Sabine Pass LNG Terminal 6.0 2.6Bcfd 3,500 2015
Cameron LNG 9.5 1.7Bcfd 3,500 2019
Mariner S. PL & Terminal 0.4 200MBPD 750 2015
Various Fractionators 0.5 200MBPD 400 2014
Huntsman EO Exp. 0.1 132.5MTPA 325 2015
Total $16.5 8,075 Beaumont Axiall/Lotte Cracker
Sasol Cracker
3.0 1000MTPA
6.0 1500MTPA
2,500
7,000
2018
2017
$17B Total $30.0 17,400
8,100 Lake
Houston Jobs Charles
$40B $27B
17,400 Jobs
39,000 Jobs
Corpus Christi Project Invest. ($B) Capacity Labor In-service
$16B Freeport LNG 14.0 2Bcfd 3,500 2018
Targa Terminal Exp. 0.3 100MBPD 188 2014
9,200 Jobs Enterprise LPG Export 0.6 264MBPD 300 2015
Enterprise Ethane Export 1.0 240 MBPD 400 2016
PSX Sweeny Hub 3.0 100MBPD 350 2015
Dow Cracker 1.7 1650MTPA 4,800 2017
Kinder Condensate Hub 0.4 100MBPD 300 2015
Project Invest. ($B) Capacity Labor In-service
Exxon Cracker 6.0 1500MTPA 10,000 2017
OxyChem Cracker 1.0 600MTPA 1,700 2015
Lyondell Cracker Exp. 0.4 363MTPA 667 2015
Formosa Cracker 2.0 1600MTPA 2,500 2016
Dow PDH 1.3 800MTPA 2,000 2015
Lyondell Cracker Exp. 0.4 363MTPA 731 2015
Enterprise PDH 1.3 800MTPA 2,000 2016
Various Fractionators 1.0 260MBPD 400 2015 Various Fractionators 4.0 800MBPD 2,500 2015
Oxy NGL Export 1.0 110MBPD 350 2015 Ascend PDH 1.2 1000MBPD 2,000 2015
Cheniere NGL 10.5 2.6Bcfd 3,500 2018 CP Chemical Cracker 6.0 1650MTPA 10,000 2017
Total $15.9 9,181 Total $41.2 39,005
14
Source: Company Presentations, Public Filings, TPH Estimates, Press ReleasesExports cheaper, shorter lead time vs. petchems
PDH Facility LPG Export Dock Ethane Cracker C2 Export Dock
Total Capital Cost ($mm) Total Capital Cost ($mm)
Low End $1,100 $250 Low End $5,000 $750
High End $1,700 $550 High End $7,000 $1,250
Capital Cost/MBPD of Propane ($mm) Capital Cost/MBPD of Ethane ($mm)
Low End $44.5 $2.5 Low End $58.8 $3.8
High End $55.8 $3.0 High End $73.7 $5.0
Range of IRRs Range of IRRs
Low End 24.2% 16.5% Low End 9.4% 8.4%
High End 37.4% 42.0% High End 29.7% 14.3%
Time for Approvals/Construction (Months) Time for Approvals/Construction (Months)
Low End 42 18 Low End 48 24
High End 60 24 High End 72 30
Export facilities offer comparable economics to petchem
new-builds while requiring less than half of the allotted time
to progress through approvals and construction.
Reduced lead time gives export projects advantage in
capitalizing on arbitrage opportunity between US & global
prices.
15Ethane exports always made sense… on paper. Why now?
TPHe Ethylene Gross Margin by Feedstock, Cents/Lb
65
Cents per Lb of Ethylene Produced
60
55.2
55
50 46.6
45
44.0
40.0 Potential 20-25¢ uplift
40
for foreign petchems
35
(ex-capital cost)
30
25
20.9 20.3
20
15
MB Ethane MB Propane US Export Ethane US Export Propane AG Propane Naphtha
(27c/gal, $200/t) (110c/gal, $550/t) (54c/gal, $396/t) (137c/gal, $684/t) (153c/gal, $765/t) (257c/gal, $917/t)
Why the delay?: Ethane docks are more expensive than propane docks, while ethane-
importing facilities are relatively scarce. SXL and EPD made clear that ethane exports are a
“when” not an “if”, leading more global facilities to declare interest in US ethane. Margins
look similar for exported ethane and exported propane. In reality, consumers may find it
easier to secure US ethane on commercial terms. Producers are willing to sell price-indexed
ethane over lengthy terms, while propane sales have reflected AG, rather than MB pricing.
16NE, Canada Left out as Belvieu Recovers…
Multi-year NGL price improvement starts this winter
with LPG exports, while ethane exports tighten the
market in 2017 and beyond.
Northeast and Canadian NGL markets lack pipe
access to the Gulf.
Rail provides export access for Canadian NGL
producers.
Northeast NGL producers have yet to commit to a
large-scale takeaway solution; 3 major projects
have been proposed.
Gulf Coast price advantage is likely to persist as the
location of more than 90% of proposed NGL
export/consumption projects.
17Price Target Methodology:
Analyst Certification: In valuing midstream companies, we use a variety of valuation methods to derive our
I, Brad Olsen do hereby certify that, to the best of my knowledge, the views and price target, including sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuations based on comparable
opinions in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the publicly traded companies, discounted cash flow (DCF) models and dividend discount
company and its securities. I have not nor will not receive direct or indirect models. We use dividend discount models to value more income-oriented vehicles,
compensation in return for expressing specific recommendations or viewpoints in this such as MLPs. Dividend discount rates can vary from 7% to 12% depending on our
report. perception of business risk. We will typically use SOTP and DCF to value C-corporation
structures. We will also use dividend discount models as a secondary methodology for
Important Disclosure: valuing C-corporations, generally using lower dividend discount rates than we use for
The analysts above (or members of their households) have a long stock position in our MLP price targets, given C-corps’ lower payout ratios and lower reliance on
Anadarko Petroleum, Arch Coal Inc., EQT Corp., Huntsman Corporation, Phillips 66, outside capital markets.
Potash Corporation, Teekay Corporation, Teekay LNG Partners, and Teekay Offshore
Partners. John E. Lowe, Senior Executive Advisor at Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., also OTHER DISCLOSURES:
serves as a member of the board of directors of Phillips 66 and Apache Corporation.
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