Assessing the energy system impacts of Morocco's NDC and low-emission pathways
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The views expressed in this
document are informal and do
not necessarily reflect the UK
government’s official policies.
Assessing the energy system impacts of Morocco's NDC
and low-emission pathways
Panagiotis Fragkos
Key Messages
• Morocco has set ambitious NDC targets for 2030, but current
climate policies need strengthening to meet NDCs and long-
term low-emission strategies
• The energy system needs to be transformed by expansion of RE
investment, higher levels of electricity use in transport, indus-
try, and buildings, and a drive to use energy more efficiently
• The low-carbon transition can boost Morocco’s economy, attract
investment, create new jobs, and reduce energy imports
higher commitment to climate transformation with rapid up-
Introduction policy in the country. The NDC scaling of renewable technolo-
In the last decade, Morocco has ambition levels are ranked by gies combined with elimination
positioned itself at the forefront the international community as of coal-fired plants. Implement-
of the clean energy transition, among the highest globally and ing the Moroccan NDC can pave
through the ambitious emission are aligned with the mitigation the way towards the structural
pledges presented in COP21 as objectives of the Paris Agree- transformations required to
part of Morocco NDC (Nationally ment [1]. Moroccan institutions ensure compatibility with the
Determined Contribution), the have also built significant Paris Agreement. Morocco has
announcement of a 52% renew- knowledge of innovative renew- vast renewable energy
able energy target in 2030 and able energy financing instru- resources that can be exploited
the launching of the world’s ments, especially for solar and to replace fossil fuel use in and
largest concentrating solar wind projects. Despite recent beyond the power sector, and
power (CSP) plant. Under the policy developments, Morocco’s thus the policy ambition can fur-
NDC, submitted in 2016, energy consumption is domi- ther increase focus on expan-
Morocco committed to uncondi- nated by fossil fuels (which are sion of renewable energy com-
tionally reduce its GHG emis- imported due to the lack of do- bined with storage, acceleration
sions by 17% and conditionally mestic hydrocarbon resources), of energy efficiency, and electri-
by 42%, below business as while the expansion of coal-fired fication of energy services. As
usual emissions by 2030. The generation raises new concerns Morocco’s economy depends
NDC strategy covers all sectors for rapidly increasing emissions. heavily on hydrocarbon imports,
of the economy and relies opportunities abound to reduce
heavily on energy sector trans- The briefing provides a quanti- its energy import bill by devel-
formation towards more sus- tative model-based analysis of oping domestic renewable
tainable energy sources. the energy system and socio- energy and reducing fossil fuel
technical and financial implica- consumption. Our research
tions of implementing the highlights the key challenges
There is strong support of and opportunities for Morocco’s
Morocco NDC targets by 2030
climate policy at a high level. transition and provides key
and low-emission transition by
Morocco has hosted the UNFCCC policy-relevant messages and
2050. The NDC implementation
Conference of Parties twice, in recommendations on how to im-
is based on electricity sector
2001 and 2016, leading to a
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ENERGY SYSTEM IMPACTS OF MOROCCO'S NDC
plement its NDC for 2030 and ing standards of living, and uptake of more efficient energy
even raise its climate ambition limited climate action [1, 6]. carriers in end-use sectors, the
towards a long-term low- Transport and electricity pro- removal of fossil fuel subsidies,
emission development. duction remain the highest energy savings in buildings
carbon emitting sectors, ac- (energy labelling, energy effi-
Study Design counting for 75% of total CO2 ciency cook-stove program,
As the energy and transport emissions by 2050. low-consumption lamps, effi-
sectors represent more than cient building envelopes),
90% of Morocco’s CO2 emissions Key Results transport improvements (up-
and Morocco’s mitigation goals Current policies and plans as take of EVs, taxi renewal pro-
rely in large part on the energy included in BAU need strength- gramme, public infrastructure in
sector transformation [2], the ening to ensure that Morocco urban centres), efficiency
policy brief analyses future meets its NDC targets for 2030 standards in industries, and the
energy system development un- (Figure 1). Our analysis shows uptake of efficient appliances,
der alternative climate policy that the policy ambition can be equipment, and cars.
scenarios. In line with Morocco’s raised in Morocco, facilitating Implementing the Moroccan
NDC, the study considers a the uptake of renewable energy NDC can pave the way towards
business-as-usual (BAU) sce- and energy efficiency and the the structural systemic transfor-
nario that includes only phase out of coal-fired power mations required to ensure
currently implemented policies plants. compatibility with Paris Agree-
and does not consider the ment goals. As Morocco has
measures included in country’s The cost-efficient implementa-
tion of Moroccan NDC targets is vast renewable resources that
NDC. The study analyses the can be exploited to replace fossil
impacts, costs, and benefits for based on electricity sector
transformation with rapid up- fuel use in and beyond the
Morocco to achieve its (condi- power sector, the climate policy
tional and unconditional) NDC scaling of renewable technolo-
gies (solar PV, CSP, and wind ambition can further increase,
targets for 2030, and also quan- focusing on electricity sector re-
tifies long-term low-emission power) combined with elimina-
tion of coal and oil-fired power structuring with high expansion
pathways for Morocco, in line of renewable energy and accel-
with mitigation pathways of the plants. Gas-fired Combined
Cycles support the large-scale eration of efficiency improve-
IPCC Special Report on 1.5oC ments in all demand sectors
[3]. deployment of variable renewa-
bles and provide an important (Figure 2). As power genera-
The climate policy scenarios are flexibility option to the system. tion decarbonizes well before
developed with the comprehen- Accelerated energy efficiency 2050, the increased electrifica-
sive Middle East and North improvements resulting directly tion of energy services becomes
Africa Energy Demand and Sup- in lower emissions are also a an increasingly important
ply (MENA-EDS) model [4–5]. major pillar to meet NDC strategy to reduce emissions,
MENA-EDS is a technologically targets; this is facilitated by the e.g., through uptake of electric
rich energy system model cap- vehicles that account for 50% of
turing in detail the complex
interactions between energy de-
mand and supply. It provides
future projections on energy
consumption by sector and fuel,
power generation mix by tech-
nology, energy price formation,
policy instruments, required
investment, and CO2 emissions
from energy combustion by sec-
tor [5].
With currently implemented pol-
icy measures, CO2 emissions
from energy use in BAU scenario
are projected to constantly
increase as a result of high GDP
and energy demand growth, ris-
Figure 1: CO2 energy-related emissions over 2010–2030 in Morocco in
BAU and NDC scenarios
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ENERGY SYSTEM IMPACTS OF MOROCCO'S NDC
passenger cars in 2050. The
rapid upscaling of mature,
market-ready technologies (i.e.,
solar PV, wind) to more than
with the deployment of new
options, (i.e., storage batteries,
electric vehicles, carbon capture
and storage, advanced biofuels)
can significantly reduce CO2
emissions close to net zero by
2050. But this requires an up-
scaling of the NDC effort and
ambitious climate policy. Re-
newable energy deployment can
contribute to economic develop-
ment in Morocco, attract invest-
ment, and boost the industrial
sector.
Figure 2: Energy system indicators in alternative climate policy scenarios
As Morocco’s economy depends in Morocco in 2050
heavily on hydrocarbon imports,
opportunities abound to exports of RE-based electricity
improve its energy import Conclusions and and the reduced fossil fuel im-
dependence and enhance Policy ports bring important growth
energy supply security by devel- Recommendations opportunities for Morocco.
oping domestic renewable With a young and growing pop-
energy and reducing hydro- Morocco has only renewable
ulation and plans to continue
carbon consumption. Morocco energy targets for the electricity
developing and diversifying the
can benefit from reducing GHG sector. With a view to meeting
economy, a committed low-
emissions as production facili- SDG7 and increasing the share
carbon energy strategy for the
ties of green industrial products of renewable energy in primary
medium and long-term can be
(e.g., solar panels, wind tur- energy mix, Morocco is encour-
developed largely based on re-
bines) are already in place in aged to set targets and policy
newable energy, electrification,
Morocco and their contribution measures for the use of modern
and energy efficiency. Climate
in Moroccan GDP would increase renewables in residential and
policy and renewable energy
creating new employment op- transport sectors. This will
deployment contribute to the
portunities. strongly promote the reduction
development of the economy,
of fossil fuel use and emissions
create new, quality jobs, and
across the economy, which
boost investment and the indus-
comes with co-benefits in terms
trial sector of Morocco. The
of reduced air pollution and
domestic manufacturing of
energy imports and stimulating
clean energy technologies, the
investment.
[4] Fragkos P., Kouvaritakis N., Capros P, 2013, Model-based
References analysis of the future strategies for the MENA energy system,
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https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/morocco/
[5] Capros P., Fragkos P., Kouvaritakis N., 2016, Analysis of
[2] Government of Morocco, 2016, Nationally Determined Con- future common strategies between the South and East Mediter-
tributions under the UNFCCC, Available at https:// ranean area and the EU in the energy sector, Regulation and
www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/Morocc Investments in Energy Markets, Academic Press
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ios for major emitting countries: Analysis of current climate
[3] Rogelj, J., D. et al, 2018: Mitigation pathways compatible policies and mitigation commitments: 2019 Update, prepared
with 1.5°C in the context of sustainable development In Global by PBL/NewClimate Institute/IIASA under contract to European
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3ENERGY SYSTEM IMPACTS OF MOROCCO'S NDC
Notes
Climate Compatible Growth (CCG) programme: Acknowledgements:
CCG is funded by the UK’s Foreign Development and The research leading to this study has received funding
Commonwealth Office (FCDO) to support investment in from the European Union Horizon 2020 research and
sustainable energy and transport systems to meet innovation program under grant agreement No
development priorities in the Global South 101003866 (NDC ASPECTS)
Author Affiliation:
E3-Modelling, Athens
CCG 2021 21.07.2021 – Version 1. www.ClimateCompatibleGrowth.com (#CCG)
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