Beyond the Noise The Megatrends of Tomorrow's World - Deloitte
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The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World Beyond the Noise The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World 1
The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World
Die Deutsche Bibliothek verzeichnet diese Publikation in der
Deutschen Nationalbibliografie. Detaillierte bibliografische
Daten sind im Internet über http://dnb.ddb.de abrufbar. Content
Introduction 04
Drivers 08
Megatrends 82
Empowerment 84
Polarization 90
Hyperconnectivity 96
Disengagement 102
Herausgeber: Deloitte Consulting GmbH Aging 108
2. Auflage, Juli 2017 Dematerialization 114
Alle Rechte vorbehalten. Scarcity 120
Nachdruck, auch auszugsweise, verboten.
Kein Teil dieses Werkes darf ohne schriftliche Einwilligung des Verlages Blurring Boundaries 126
in irgendeiner Form (Fotografie, Mikrofilm oder ein anderes Verfahren),
reproduziert oder unter Verwendung elektronischer Systeme Erosion of Governance 132
verarbeitet, vervielfältigt oder verbreitet werden.
Displacement 138
© Deloitte Consulting GmbH, München 2017
Concluding Words 144
LOGOPUBLIX Fachbuch Verlag, München
Sources 148
Satz: Deloitte Design Studios
Druck: LOGOPRINT GmbH, München About the Authors 164
ISBN 978-3-927985-50-6 Contact 165
2 3The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World
We all have to make Take a step back and consider this: is
it easier to make assumptions about
each other is never the same, and is
extremely specific to the focus of the
keep in mind two more points. First, economy. To illustrate this, we provide
this book can be read from front to five “stories of the future” for each
decisions in spite of the future today, or some years back scenario at hand. back, but you don’t have to stick to megatrend, to give you examples of
an uncertain future. in the last millennium? Most people
would agree that it is harder to make In other words, drawing up a sensible
convention. Feel free to jump from how the megatrend might impact the
driver to driver, go back and forth and future across STEEP categories.
Imagining the future sense of “it all” today, compared to the list of factors that can explain the pro- explore the points that capture your
through scenarios more clear-cut and bipolar world in
which we grew up.
verbial first 80 percent of our future
is the easy bit of scenario thinking.
imagination. Enjoy the ride.
enables us to identify Selecting the relevant drivers for your Second, there are two parts to this
robust strategic choices We live in a world of ever faster tech-
nology cycles, hyperconnected and
specific focal question, country or
industry, and combining the overall
book, and that structure needs a bit
of explanation. The first section de-
that would fit to any nervously flickering financial markets, set into plausible, balanced and chal- scribes 35 drivers of the future, which
plausible future, and to and post-factual politics. No wonder
that the gentle art of perceiving, as
lenging stories, on the other hand, is
an art.
are social or political tendencies,
economic or environment-related
keep strategies flexible scenario-pioneer Pierre Wack once processes, or technological develop-
in case the future famously described it, has become
an increasingly critical skill when far-
The objective of this book is two-fold.
We would like to give you a sense of
ments we often rank as relevant when
compiling our trend analyses. These
surprises us. ranging decisions are to be taken. structure when thinking about drivers drivers certainly make an interesting
of the future. By clustering drivers read on their own, but they are still
With this book, we would like to draw into buckets such as societal, tech- rather discrete and unrelated obser-
your attention to a number of trends nology-related, environment-related, vations between themselves.
that, in our current view, might well economic, and political (which is often
drive the future. To do this, we will referred to as the STEEP categoriza- By contrast, the second section
describe a selection of the social, tech- tion), you are off to a good start. highlights megatrends, which is a
nology-related, environment-related, more abstract concept. Megatrends
economic, and political drivers of We would also like to open your eyes emerge at the intersection of two or
change that we encounter again and to the fact that the future is already three STEEP categories. For example,
again in our daily work at the Center here, you just need to perceive it. hyperconnectivity is a phenomenon
for the Long View. After absorbing the list of drivers, you that stems from both technology and
might start to read or watch the news society, and therefore qualifies as a
There is one striking insight from differently. If you start to feel that megatrend. Yet, even more important-
years of scenario work: the set of driv- most of the news we are bombarded ly, megatrends will have an impact on
ers that form the general background with on a daily basis actually tie in all aspects of our life in the future. To
to the scenarios we draw is surpris- neatly with one or several of the stick with our example, that mega-
ingly stable. It changes only slowly trends described in this book, you trend hyperconnectivity not only de-
over time, and varies surprisingly little have started to think like a futurist. termines further future technologies
across industries, geographies and and trigger new social trends, but also
sectors. However, the ways in which As you embark on your personal leaves its mark in politics, the envi- Florian Klein
these drivers link up and interact with journey to imagine the future, please ronmental debate, and of course the Head of the Center for the Long View
4 5The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World
This century is best
described as the
era of uncertainty.
Underpinning the
future of our world are
35 drivers of change.The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World |
Drivers The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World | Drivers
Additive Artificial Augmented Automation Blockchain Climate Cloud
Manufacturing Intelligence Reality Systems Change Technology
Competition Concentration Crowd- Data Demand for Digitization DIY
for Talent of Wealth sourcing Monetization Customization Movement
Empowered Environmental Focus on Geospatial Globalization Industry Internet of
Women Awareness Transparency Technology Consolidation Things
Knowledge Mass Next-Gen Partnership Political Regulatory Resource
Worker Migration Workforce Models Fragmentation Landscape Price Volatility
Society
Technology
Environment
Resource Sharing Social Social Technization Terrorist Urbanization Economy
Scarcity Economy Media Unrest of Healthcare Organizations Politics
8 9The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World |
Drivers The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World | Drivers
Additive Manufacturing Framework for understanding AM paths and potential value
High product change
Additive manufacturing (AM) or 3D printing refers to a
production method whereby three-dimensional products
Path III: Path IV:
are created by successively layering material using a com- Product evolution Business model evolution
puterized or digital process. • Strategic imperative: Balance of • Strategic imperative: Growth and
growth, innovation, and performance innovation
• Value driver: Balance of profit, risk, • Value driver: Profit with revenue
Importance Impact and time focus, and risk
• Key enabling AM capabilities: • Key enabling AM capabilities:
•• AM already affects an enormous •• AM can improve a product’s - Customization to customer - Mass customization
number of industries including value by increasing the efficiency requirements - Manufacturing at point of use
- Increased product functionality - Supply chain disintermediation
automotive, industrial products, and effectiveness of the design
- Market responsiveness - Customer empowerment
medical devices, aerospace and process. The main benefits are
High supply chain change
- Zero cost of increased complexity
No supply chain change
defense, consumer goods, and reduced process time and cost
architecture. reduction in the development
cycle, as well as quality and design
•• From 2013 to 2018, the market
improvement of the final product.
volume for AM systems and sup-
port products/services is expected •• AM’s impact on supply chains in- Path I: Path II:
to rise from US $3.1 billion to US cludes material waste reduction, Stasis Supply chain evolution
$12.5 billion. increased production flexibility, and
• Strategic imperative: Performance • Strategic imperative: Performance
the possibility of further decentraliz- • Value driver: Profit with a cost focus • Value driver: Profit with a cost focus,
•• The fastest growing segment within
ing production. However, companies • Key enabling AM capabilities: and time
AM, metals, is expected to reach a
have to overcome quality assurance - Design and rapid prototyping • Key enabling AM capabilities:
market volume of US $3.9 billion by - Production and custom tooling - Manufacturing closer to point
barriers to employ AM for purposes
2025. - Supplementary or “insurance” of use
beyond rapid prototyping or tooling.
capability - Responsiveness and flexibility
•• AM is currently already used in some - Low rate production/no change - Management of demand uncer-
•• Some experts estimate that consum-
form in 24% of manufacturing firms over tainty
ers might save approximately 80-90%
and in up to 50% of supply chain - Reduction in required inventory
of purchase costs by purchasing the
leaders.
right to manufacture a product at
•• By 2017, an additional 21% of manu- home rather than through traditio-
facturing firms plan to use AM. nal retail channels. No product change
Sources: Statista 2013, IDTechEx 2015, Deloitte Sources: Deloitte University 2017
University 2014, Deloitte University 2017
10 11The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World |
Drivers The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World | Drivers
Artificial Intelligence The Three Vs framework for assessing applications for cognitive technologies
New technologies are focused on augmenting the
processing capabilities of machines for human-like
intelligence (e.g., robotics, natural-language processing,
speech recognition).
Importance Impact
Screen Cognitive technology indicators Application examples
•• Due to the increased use of robotics •• Through suggestions that specifically
and artificial intelligence (AI), it is ex- refer to a context, cognitive analytics Viable • All or part of a task, job, or workflow requires low • Forms processing, first-tier customer service,
pected that about 50% of US occu- can enhance the accuracy of fore- or moderate level of skill plus human perception warehouse operation
• Large data sets • Investment advice, medical diagnosis, oil
pations will experience some degree casts and the performance of tasks • Expertise can be expressed as rules exploration
of automation in the next 10 years in terms of their efficiency and degree • Scheduling maintenance operations
(2014–2024). of automation. Cognitive analytics can
Valuable • Workers’ cognitive abilities or training are under- • Writing company earnings reports; e-discovery;
support and add to human cognition utilized driving/piloting
•• A study conducted by researchers
by providing suggestions that a human • Business process has high labor costs • Health insurance utilization management
from the University of Oxford pre-
mind may not have taken into consid- • Expertise is scarce; value of improved • Medical diagnosis; aerial surveillance
dicts that almost half of total US
eration. performance is high
employment (47%) will transform
or vanish because of automation. •• Cognitive analytics are especially Vital • Industry-standard performance requires use of • Online retail product recommendations
cognitive technologies • Fraud detection
valuable for companies that are
•• There are three general categories • A service cannot scale relying on human labor alone • Media sentiment analytics
eager to enhance their capabilities
into which applications dealing with
to predict, sense, and react since they
artificial intelligence can be divided.
combine the analysis of big data with
These are “product applications”,
practical decision-making support.
“process applications” (such as
automation), and “insight applica-
Sources: Deloitte University 2015, Deloitte 2014, Sources: Deloitte 2014
tions” (such as machine learning).
Deloitte University 2014
12 13The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World |
Drivers The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World | Drivers
Augmented Reality The evolution of interaction – shortened chains of command
Augmented reality (AR) is a form of technology used to Augmented and virtual reality help accelerate the coalescence of users
provide a digitally enhanced view of the real world. This with their device-powered experience of the world, improving the fidelity
of intention, increasing efficiency, and driving innovation.
technology layers digital information (e.g., graphics, sound,
or feedback) on top of the physical environment for the The evolution of interaction
user to manipulate.
Importance Impact
•• In 2017, there will be more than •• By using AR devices, users can
2.5 billion downloads of mobile AR experience their physical sur-
applications. By 2020, there could be roundings through computer- Interface
about 1 billion people using AR. generated inputs (e.g., video,
sound and GPS data). These sen-
•• It is predicted that the annual rev- Interface
sory inputs augment items from
enues of mobile AR in the enter- Peripherals
the real world in such a way that
prise and general entertainment
people think their environment is
application sectors will each ex-
real, even though they may find
ceed US $1 billion in 2018.
themselves in a totally different
•• Copenhagen Airport has introduced surrounding.
a pilot project in which an application
•• During the past 12-18 months,
guides users through the airport. By
retailers and brands have been
2020, users could be navigated with a
strongly engaged with advertising
3D tool embedded in either a mobile
their AR applications via mobile
or a wearable AR device. This device
channels to influence consumer MESSENGERS SMART SCREENS INTUITIVE INTERACTION
will map passengers by means of the Intermediate devices interact with Screens manipulated based on Devices respond to ambient cues and
behavior and drive consumer interfaces; virtually all input occurs environment facilitate direct physical intentional movements to create
triangulation of Wi-Fi access spots at
adoption of AR devices. through a mouse or keyboard or spoken interaction with displays empathetic, personalized experiences
terminals and navigate them through
the airport. •• At a time when customer focus is
becoming increasingly important,
mobile is considered the leading
POINT CLICK TYPE TOUCH SWIPE TALK GESTURE MOOD GAZE
technology driving omni-channel
marketing.
Sources: Deloitte University 2016
Sources: Deloitte 2016, Deloitte University 2015
14 15The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World |
Drivers The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World | Drivers
Automation Time spent on tasks machines could handle
Physical objects are becoming more and more frequently inter-
connected with digital technology (e.g., advanced robotics and Time spent on tasks machines could handle
sensing) and able to communicate without human intervention.
20%
Product Demonstrators
Importance Impact 77k & Promoters
Market Research Analysts &
•• By 2020, the robotics industry could •• Automation reduces errors signifi- Marketing Specialists
Share of tasks machines could handle
reach a market volume of US $100 cantly and supports product improve- 15% 69k
billion. ments. Companies in all sectors have Merchandise Displayers 430K
& Window Trimmers 28K
to decide whether to understand and Advertising &
•• During 2014–2024, half of the work Promotions 174K
adopt intelligent automation or take Managers
carried out by today’s US workers Marketing
the risk of falling behind. Managers
could be automated to some extent.
10% 194K
•• Industry example: in the life sciences
•• In that period, the robotics industry Graphic Designers
and healthcare industry, robots steril-
may create 3 million additional jobs,
ize surgical tools without human inter-
especially in consumer electronics
vention, thus incidents of infection are 17K
and the electric vehicle industry. Survey Researchers
reduced and hospital staff resources
5%
•• By 2020, the rehabilitation robot are freed up.
market may grow 40-fold compared
•• Robotic systems in pharmacies could 28K
to 2014 due to advancements in Commercial & Industrial
hand out drugs with zero errors while Designers
rehab/therapy robots, exoskeletons,
in automated kiosk, patients are able
wearable robotics, and active
to enter medical symptoms and re-
prostheses. 0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60
ceive customized recommendations.
hourly wage
Sources: Deloitte University 2015, Deloitte Univer-
sity 2015, Deloitte University 2014, Deloitte 2015,
Sources: Harvard Business Review 2016
Deloitte 2015
16 17The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World |
Drivers The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World | Drivers
Blockchain Systems
Blockchain systems use a distributed ledger technology to
promote transparency, trust, and decentralized validation
among members of the digital network.
Importance Impact
•• Venture capitalists are fueling this •• Due to their similarity to the Internet,
development with the investment which increased communication
of approximately US $1 billion in 120 dramatically by reducing cost and 01 02 03 04 05
blockchain-related start-ups – half of friction to near zero, cryptocurren- The new block When a miner The algorithm Within ten All the trans-
that investment already took place in cies have the potential for a sharp is put in the solves the rewards the minutes of one actions in the
network so that cryptographic winning miner Person initiating block are now
2015. increase in transactions.
miners can problem, the with 25 the transaction, fulfilled and the
•• With the representation of more •• Analysts at one investment bank verify if its discovery is bitcoins, and both parties recipient gets
than 50 of the world’s largest banks, commented on this trend recently, transactions announced to the new block is each receive the paid.
are legitimate. the rest of the added to the first confirma-
the blockchain consortium R3 CEV is saying that venture capital flow
Verification is network. front of the tion that the
creating a distributed ledger platform accelerated in 2016 and is leading accomplished blockchain. bitcoin was
to power the financial services indus- to further the development of the by completing Each block joins signed over to
try’s foray into blockchain. foundational and infrastructure complex the prior block the recipient.
services necessary to create a cryptographic so a chain is
•• Linq, a blockchain-based platform computations. made – the
fertile “plug and play” ecosystem
and ledger system that manages blockchain.
for entrepreneurs and innovation.
the trading of shares, was rolled
This may ultimately escalate enter-
out by NASDAQ (MX Group Inc.)
prise adoption from a trickle in 2016
in October 2015.
to a multi-year boom starting in 2017.
Sources: Deloitte University 2016 Sources: Deloitte 2016
18 19The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World |
Drivers The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World | Drivers
Climate Change Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index
As climate change continues, natural disasters and abnormal Global Mean Estimates based on Land and Ocean Data
weather patterns will increasingly have effects on our socio-
1.0
economics, demographics, crop production, food security,
migration, and political landscape in unprecedented ways.
0.8
Importance Impact
0.6
•• According to the UN Food and Agri- •• 2016 was ranked as the warmest
Temperature Anomaly (C)
cultural Organization, 1.8 billion year since 1884 according to a study
0.4
people are exposed to absolute published by the NASA Goddard
water scarcity and more than 5.2 Institute for Space Studies (GISS).
billion are expected to face water Similar findings were also pub- 0.2
stress by 2025. lished in studies by the UK Climatic
Research Unit (CRU) and the US
•• By 2020, an increase of 13% in food -0.0
National Oceanic and Atmospheric
production is needed to meet the
Administration (NOAA).
demand of 890 million tons for 7.8
billion people. •• The need for innovation in food pro- -0.2
duction is increasing, fueled by cli-
•• By 2025, water withdrawals will
mate change and natural calamities.
increase by 50% in developing -0.4
countries and by 18% in devel- •• Aware consumers push for healthy
oped countries. This will foster and organic food, reduced food
-0.6
local competition for water. footprints, and sustainability. This 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
results in food waste, recycling, and
the redistribution of unused food
emerging as the main concerns for Annual Mean Lowess Smoothing
burgeoning ecosystems.
Sources: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
2015
Sources: Gartner 2016, The Guardian 2016,
Deloitte University 2015, Deloitte University 2015
20 21The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World |
Drivers The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World | Drivers
Cloud Technology Benefits of using Cloud Technology
Cloud technology allows users to access scalable technology services
immediately via the Internet’s existing network, promoting lower infra-
structure, inventory, and overhead costs, and creating leaps in com-
puting power and speed, data storage, and bandwidth.
Importance Impact
• Ability to rapidly scale capacity up and down
•• On average, small to medium-sized •• With cloud computing and scalable Scalability • Standardization across locations (including globally)
businesses (SMBs) that use an above- computing power delivered as a
• Frees up resources for other capabilities
average number of cloud services service using a pay-by-use model, • Enables mobility – employees can work in any location
Flexibility
grow 26% faster and are more profit- retailers, for example, are able to • Improves collaboration and sharing
able by 21% than those SMBs that meet hurried, on-the-go, and digitally
• No up-front investment in technology (hardware, software)
use no cloud tools. connected consumers during various
Cost • SMBs can get economies of scale benefits
phases of their shopping experience. • Access to technical expertise without paying for full time staff
•• Compared to in-house, cloud-based
file storage is more cost efficient. For •• The emergence of cloud technolo- • Ability to test and trial new products
an enterprise, it costs US $955,000 gies is enabling new and innovative Innovation • Upgrades/new products immediately feasible
per year to deploy and operate 100TB customer-facing services and pro-
of file sharing space, but only US ducts. For example, 77% of retailers • Lower maintenance requirements
Maintenance • Deploying and integrating technologies (including using APIs) is typically simpler
$141,180 per year to use Amazon S3. deployed or piloted cloud computing
to enable them-selves to provide:
•• In a survey carried out by Deloitte, 55% • Software is updated automatically to fix bugs
of SMBs used cloud technology in - Seamless retailing Security • Disaster recovery – content is stored remotely
some aspect of their business, seek- • Data is not held on transportable hardware
- Single view of consumer
ing one or more of the six types of
benefit which are scalability, flexibility, - Real time personalization and Sources: Deloitte 2014
cost, innovation, maintenance, and cross-channel visibility
security.
Sources: Deloitte 2014, RightScale 2016
•• 95% of IT professionals surveyed in
2016 are making use of cloud tech-
nology.
22 23The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World |
Drivers The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World | Drivers
Competition for Talent The changing composition of the corporate worker
The mismatch in skills available and capabilities needed in
the workforce given today’s technologically-focused world
has resulted in fierce competition for talent. The changing composition of the American worker
1950 1990 2020
Importance Impact
•• According to an EIU survey, more •• Personal identities are shaped
than 60% of respondents answered through terms like “global citizen”
that “talent shortages are likely to and “global community” since
affect their bottom line in the next innovators travel to distant shores THE COMPANY THE LADDER THE FREE AGENT
five years” – especially in the highly-
skilled talent pool.
to solve problems.
MAN CLIMBER
•• Individuals must deal with much
•• 54% of employers state that they are greater professional flexibility.
unable to find qualified applicants for Highly-skilled generalists who FREE
WIFI
open positions. have graduated from the nation’s
top universities need to adapt very
•• Next to demographic change, com-
quickly to changing markets with
petition or the war for talent was
specialized skillsets.
ranked as the second most impor-
tant factor for recruiting.
Sources: Deloitte 2016, US Chamber of Commerce
•• Since global demand for skilled 2014, Monster.de 2015
workers is increasing and the
creative class is becoming more Dynamic, Mobile, Flexible,
Corporate, Rigid, International, Individual, Lattice-Driven,
selective, virtual mobility, reverse
Structured, Domestic, Ladder-Drivern, Multiple Income Streams,
transfers, and short assignments Career Professional, Firm-Based Freelancer
are part of new global mobility forms.
•• By 2017, 58% of firms expect to Sources: Deloitte University 2012
hire more part-time, temporary,
or contract employees.
24 25The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World |
Drivers The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World | Drivers
Concentration of Wealth Shares of household income of quintiles in the United States from 1970 to 2015
As global wealth inequities grow, the divide between the rich
and the poor gets greater, coupled with stagnating middle
class incomes and the rise of the luxury consumer.
Importance Impact 60%
•• In 2016, more than 3.5 billion adults •• The ever-increasing income gap
50.3% 51.1% 51% 51% 51.2% 51.1%
worldwide had wealth of less than US implies that companies will target 49.8% 50.4%
48.7%
$10,000, while the wealthiest 0.7% the upper class and the less wealthy 50% 45.6%
45.6%
held 46% of the world’s wealth. population through distinct strate- 43.3% 43.3% 44.2%
gies.
•• In 2015, more than 51% of the house-
Share of household income
hold income of private households in •• While the differentiation approach 40%
the US was earned by the top 20%. In will entail focusing on branding,
the same year, only 3.1% of household customer experience, lifestyles,
income was earned by the lowest- and consumer aspirations, the
30%
earning 20% of households. cost leadership approach will 24.5% 24.7% 24.6% 24.4% 24% 23.3% 23.4% 23.2% 23.2%
mostly concentrate on low prices 23% 23% 23% 23% 23%
•• Factors including the aging popula-
and a strong sense of value. The
tion, rising unemployment, and skill 17.4%
market in-between is expected 20% 17% 16.8% 16.2%
gaps in developing countries foster 15.9% 15.2% 14.8% 14.6% 14.6% 14.3% 14.4% 14.4% 14.3% 14.3%
to disappear increasingly.
global income inequality.
10.8% 10.4% 10.2%
•• Stagnation of incomes and the 9.8% 9.6% 9.1% 8.9%
•• Trends suggest the upper class will 8.6% 8.5% 8.4% 8.3% 8.4% 8.2% 8.2%
limited ability to take on debt will 10%
be able to spend more while the rest 4.1% 4.3% 4.2%
lead to slower growing consumer 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1%
of the population may be seriously
spending in the next decade.
constrained about home values.
0%
Sources: Deloitte University 2015, Credit Suisse 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015
2016, Deloitte University 2011
Lowest quintile Second quintile Third quintile Fourth quintile Highest quintile
Sources: US Census Bureau, Statista 2016
26 27The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World |
Drivers The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World | Drivers
Crowdsourcing A sampling of crowdsourcing platforms
As consumers are increasingly interconnected through social
media platforms and with the rise of digitalization, collective
intelligence gathering is being leveraged to elicit perspectives
and insights from a wide variety of individuals.
Gigwalk oDesk Kaggle
Importance Impact A mobile, flexible workforce for A tool for hiring and managing Competitions for predictive
job in the field remote freelancers modeling and analytics
•• To identify 2,880 suspects during the •• The current, linear product develop- Founded 2011 Founded 2005 Founded 2010
riots in 2011, the London Metropol- ment and innovation process from
itan Police used a crowdsourcing an initial idea to an item available on
smartphone application. retail shelves can take years for large
companies.
•• An open-source talent acquisition
via crowdsourcing is a spreading •• The start-up Quirky is challenging
alternative staffing model – growing current wisdom by crowdsourcing Tongal Quirky Kickstarter
Collaborative contests for A product design incubator A global funding platform for
in scale, sophistication, and impor- the development process, shortening
video production and marketplace creative projects
tance. the invention timeline from years to Founded 2008 Founded 2009 Founded 2009
weeks.
•• Leading Fast Moving Consumer
Goods (FMCG) enterprises increased •• A future organization’s distributed User Numbers of contributors in the community
their usage of crowdsourcing by 27% workforce strategy will contain
in 2015 compared to 2014. a crowdsourced labor pool as a 350,000
legitimate component.
•• The world’s most valuable global 4,500,000
brands increased their crowdsourc- 134,200
ing of creativity over 30% from 2014 Sources: Deloitte University 2015, Forbes 2015,
Deloitte University 2014, eYeka 2016 30,000
to 2015.
659,000
5,419,582
Sources: Deloitte University 2014
28 29The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World |
Drivers The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World | Drivers
Data Monetization 8 Data Monetization Opportunities
Consumers increasingly collect, track, barter, or sell their perso-
nal data for savings, convenience, or customization; companies
increasingly value sources of data direct from the consumer as
a way of gaining a competitive advantage (e.g., Facebook, Uber).
Importance Impact
•• Before companies start to mone- •• An increased mobile penetration in
tize their data, they have to assess the emerging countries of Asia and
whether they have the legal, statu- Africa fosters further growth of the Digital advertising: Financial services: Managing traffic: Optimized billboard ads:
tory, and/or ethical right to market demand for mobile data services Right content, right Cross and upsell Alleviate congestion, Understand the traffic,
consumer data – and move no and increases the potential for data audience, right time & detect fraud optimize delivery routes tailor the message
further without the proper rights monetization.
and protections in place.
•• Researchers believe that more than
•• In the near future, there will be 80% of consumers will barter, track,
three major trends: or sell their private data for savings,
customization, or convenience in the
- Consolidation within the data
year 2020.
economy Public transportation: Retail: Entertainment IoT:
Passenger satisfaction, Optimize store place- and events: Add value –
- Further expansion into different Sources: Global Information 2015, Deloitte 2015, operational efficiency, ments and staffing, Manage traffic, location data
ecosystems Forbes 2016 revenue opportunities monitor competitors target promotions and more
- A shift to customized fulfillment
models in response to greater
customer centricity
Sources: TM Forum 2016
30 31The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World |
Drivers The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World | Drivers
Demand for Customization Mass customization interjects buyer participation into product design
Control is shifting away from the manufacturer, giving the consumer Mass customization allows customers to participate meaningfully in the design
Mass
of customization
products interjects buyer participation into product design
they will buy.
a greater say in what, when, and how they receive their goods and
Mass customization allows customers to participate
services (e.g., customized goods, precision medicine) due to the meaningfully in the design of products they will buy
interaction between Web 2.0 and advanced manufacturing trends.
Importance Impact
•• The healthcare sector is increas- •• By offering customized products to
ingly making use of so-called bio- customers, companies can increase
informatics, with numbers grow- sales online as well as in-store. There- 1. Designed it myself
ing exponentially. With the help fore, brands are increasingly engaging
of such analytics, which support with customization:
sequencing genomes and body
- Pepperidge Farm allows its
composition, medical treatment
customers to decide on the
can be customized for each
shape of their Goldfish crackers
patient specifically.
- Jawbone offers its customers the
•• Due to the rise of 3D printing, con-
ability to create their own speakers
sumer goods can be personalized
more easily and mass customiza- - Trek customers can build their
tion of consumer goods is being own bike from scratch 2. Built to order for me
introduced by an increasing number
- Men can design their own suits
of companies who offer “print at
at Brooks Brothers Sources: Forrester Research 2011
home” options to their customers
(e.g., 3D printed toys, shoes, •• Through customization, companies
cosmetics, and food products). can gain a competitive advantage
over their competitors as they receive
•• Retailers collect and analyze big
insights from customized designs.
data to adapt product offerings
This creates a virtuous feedback loop
to their customers’ preferences.
which may help them to adapt small
Amazon is only one outstanding
aspects of their business and differ-
example, building a large part of
entiate their products for consumers.
its success on this approach.
Sources: Deloitte University 2015, Deloitte Univer-
sity 2015, Forbes 2013
32 33The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World |
Drivers The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World | Drivers
The Information Value Loop
Digitization
Information gathered by the Internet of Things enables business to create and capture
new value by providing insight to optimize actions. Modified actions in turn give rise to
The Information Value Loop
new information, starting the cycle anew. Value drivers determine how much values is
created; their relevance and importance depend on the specific use case.
The proliferation of new mobile technologies, the rise of Initiating, changing,
the Internet of Things, reliance on sensor and wearable or maintaining an
event or state
technologies, and increased reliance on digital interaction
has shifted the world from an analog to a digital one.
Augmented ACT
Importance Impact behavior Sensors
•• It is predicted that about 30 billion •• By 2020, the economic impact of the
devices with unique IP addresses will “Internet of Everything” could account
be connected to the Internet by 2020. for more than US $14 trillion.
YZE
CR
•• In 2019, the market of devices •• The IoT can lead to the emergence Magnitude
EAT
Use of sensors to
ANAL
of new organizations and services. Discernment of
that are connected to the so-called generate data about a
patterns among data
E
“Internet of Things” (IoT) is expected One example is the automotive physical event or state
that leads to action,
to be twice as big as the market for industry: through the introduction descriptions, or
computers, smartphones, tablets, of telematics services, car manu- predictions
connected cars, and wearables facturers that had formerly concen-
Time Risk
combined. trated on manufacturing goods are Augmented Network
now offering subscription-based Intelligence
•• Examples from different industries
services, turning them into service
TE
show how applications with sensors
AG
G
CA
providers. RE I
and wireless communication can GA UN
be used to track the location and •• According to Gartner, in 2016, com- TE MM
CO
condition of high-value equipment panies will have invested around US
such as construction and mining $5 billion on consulting support and
Standards
machinery, or vending machines implementation services that deal
and ATMs. In addition, digital app- with cellular machine-to-machine
lications can support the manage- (M2M) communications. Industries
ment and control of commercial such as manufacturing, transporta- Stages Gathering information Transmission of informa-
created at different times tion from generation to
trucking fleets, electric power dis- tion, utilities, healthcare, retail, bank- Technologies or from different sources processing location
tribution networks, and manufac- ing, and also the government are ex-
Value Drivers
turing operations and processes. pected to have invested the most.
Sources: Deloitte University 2015, Deloitte Sources: Deloitte University 2015
University 2013
34 35The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World |
Drivers The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World | Drivers
Maker movement overview and drivers
Do-It-Yourself (DIY) Movement
145K
140k
Maker movement overview and drivers
Maker movement overview and drivers 130K
145K
120k 140k 120K
Number of attendees at Maker Faire
Driven by the ubiquitous adoption of the Internet and 110K 130K
smartphones, individuals are increasingly engaging with 100k 120k
97K
120K
Number of attendees at Maker Faire
the digital world to make purchasing decisions and per- 110K 90K
85K
form tasks without professional assistance. 80k 100k
83K
97K
74K
90K
83K 64K 85K
Importance Impact 60k 80k
74K
50K
•• In 2016, there were more than •• As customers increasingly look
64K
191 Maker Faires worldwide in 38 for possibilities to buy customized 40k 60k
countries with 1.4 million attendees products and create products 50K
and flagship events in the Bay Area, of their own, niche markets will 27K
20k 40k 23K
did not exist
New York, or Chicago alone attracted proliferate. These offer consumers
more than 260,000 visitors. the opportunity to create their own
27K
products according to their needs. 23K
•• By launching a program called Live 0 20k
did not exist
Customs, the shoe brand TOMS •• Manufacturers who concentrate 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
which is highly popular amongst solely on mass production with San New York
0 Francisco Bay Area
millennials, lets its customers design little variety must rethink their 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
their own pair of shoes. business model and their place in
San Francisco Bay Area New York
the production landscape, as the
•• According to estimates by Make
demand for customization increases Revenue from maker-driven businesses $274M
Media, the market for DIY products
and consumers turn to smaller or Revenue from maker-driven businesses
and components that is used by
more personalized producers.
makers had a turnover of more Revenue from maker-driven businesses $274M
than US $1 billion in 2015. $196M
Sources: Deloitte University 2015, Deloitte Univer-
•• Every day, around 1,600 people sign sity 2014, The Denver Post 2016, Maker Faire 2017 $50M
$196M
up for the online platform Craftsy
$125M
which has provided DIY tutorials $50M
to its users since 2012. By January $18M
$75M $125M
2013, Craftsy already had 840,000 $7M
enrollments and currently has ap-
2011 2012 $18M 2013 2012$75M 2013 2014 2015
proximately 6.7 million registered $7M (projected)
members. Quirky Etsy
2011 2012 2013 2012 2013 2014 2015
(projected)
36 Quirky
Sources: Deloitte University 2015, Statista 2016 Etsy 37The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World |
Drivers The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World | Drivers
Empowered Women Increase in Women-Owned Business between 2007 and 2017 in the US
clustered by race
Women are making significant inroads into top leadership
positions across the public and private sectors, as well as
emerging as an important economic sub-group in devel-
oping countries who can serve as an engine for growth.
Importance Impact 100%
•• Between 2003 and 2016, the global •• The number of enterprises that have 87%
share of women in national parlia- discovered women as powerful yet
ments rose from 15% to 23%. overlooked consumers with specific
needs regarding products and ser-
•• Women’s Empowerment Principles
vices is increasing exponentially. 68%
(WEPs) have already been rolled out in
various enterprises worldwide, hence •• While emerging markets such as
more than 1,368 business leaders are China and India, with growing tech-
demonstrating leadership on gender nology and engineering industries,
equality, based on these principles. are expecting a faster elimination 44%
of gender inequality in the STEM
•• According to the World Economic
sectors, markets with aging popula-
Forum, there is a strong correlation
tions are seeing an increase in male
between countries that are success-
employees in traditionally female-
fully closing the gender gap and their
dominated caring professions.
economic competitiveness. Thus
companies with a high percentage
of female employees, particularly in Sources: Deloitte University 2014, The Wall Street 10%
Journal 2015, The Wall Street Journal 2015, The
board positions, perform better than Economist 2013, Inter-Parliamentary Union 2016
competitors.
•• By narrowing the gender gap in White Asian Black Hispanic
employment, the global income per
person will increase by at least 20% Sources: CNN 2015
by 2030.
38 39The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World |
Drivers The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World | Drivers
Environmental Awareness
The influence of social activism has continued to rise as
consumers have become more empowered, demanding
environmentally sustainable products, increased corporate
social responsibility efforts, and other commitments to society.
WHO IS THE
GLOBAL, SOCIALLY-CONSCIOUS
CONSUMER?
Importance Impact
•• According to a survey in 2016, 63% of •• Not only “green” buildings as seen
all consumers are positive influencers in the first decade of the 21st cen-
and encourage others to buy from tury, but entirely “green” cities will
YOUNGER
environmentally and socially respon- become the norm and will reshape
sible companies. the construction industry. They are
GREEN
63% 66%
not only sustainable, but resilient.
•• 65% of consumers can be classified under the
Zero-energy home building, rooftop
as responsible consumers and are age of 40
farming, and permeable pavements
willing to pay extra for products pro-
are just a few of the advances. think companies
duced in a environmentally and so-
should support
cially responsible way. •• In addition to sustainability, cities will
the environment
be “smart”, increasingly using sensors
•• Independently of whether it is based
?
and wireless networks.
on obligation or desire, more than 2
billion aspirational consumers prefer •• By 2020, a sustainable marketplace
sustainable consumption. with new industry leaders will have
been established. This development
•• In China, about 60% of the popu-
is driven by consumers with know-
lation require the prioritizing of
ledge of corporate practices and an
environmental protection when
interest in environmentally sustain-
fostering economic growth.
able products. These consumers
$
will likely buy products only from Willing to pay more for
companies with a “green” reputation. socially-responsible
products/services
Sources: Deloitte University 2015, Deloitte Univer-
sity 2015, Deloitte University 2015, BBMG 2016 Sources: Deloitte University 2015
40 41The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World |
Drivers The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World | Drivers
Focus on Transparency Consumer opinion on data privacy
Expectations of government transparency are growing while
personal data is becoming more ubiquitous, creating new
implications for privacy, cybersecurity, and accountability.
Importance Impact
•• A recent survey interviewing more •• Citizen innovators have been 83%
than 1,000 business journalists from encouraged by the production of consumers are aware of recent
over 35 countries found that more and use of troves of data to trans- security breaches of personal data
than 90% of journalists source news form open data into solutions and stored with retailers
from social media.
•• Citizens eager to expose government
applications.
•• Today’s progressive HR departments
59%
of consumers state that a single data
and corporate secrets have given particularly value the treasure trove
breach would negatively impact their
millions of documents to WikiLeaks. of data available through outside likelihood of buying brands from a
sources such as social networks. It consumer products company
can help monitor and build employ-
ment brand, identify and recruit
valuable talent, enhance the under- 51%
standing of compensation strategies, of consumers would be forgiving of a
recognize flight risk, and monitor consumer product company that had
employee satisfaction and their one single data breach of their person-
al data as long as the company quickly
engagement.
addressed the issue
Sources: Deloitte University 2015, Deloitte Univer-
sity 2015, Deloitte University 2011, Deloitte Uni- Sources: Deloitte University 2014
versity 2015, Deloitte University 2015, Deloitte
University 2015
42 43The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World |
Drivers The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World | Drivers
Geospatial Technology
The process of gathering and analyzing geographical
data to understand the locational patterns of a subject
has become prevalent.
GIS GPS
Importance Impact
•• The Geographic Information System •• The ways in which locational data
(GIS) market is being disrupted by is collected, analyzed, and stored Geographic Global
Information Positioning
innovations that focus on consumers is critical for achieving sustainable
System System
as these commoditize geospatial data. advantages when the concept of
“liquid data” comes into play.
•• Oxera, an economic consultancy
company, suggests in its recent •• It is important for firms to know
study that the value of the geo- to what extent geospatial data
services industry ranges between services which are cloud-based
Geospatial
US $150 and US $270 billion per and also crowdsourced through
year, while accounting for about mobile applications can contribute
US $90 billion in wages. to enhanced performance.
•• Half of new investment in geospatial
applications had been devoted to
•• Geospatial data which is available
for each project or initiative imple-
Technology
consumer-focused technologies by mented by international develop-
2016, displacing the revenues of firms ment organizations or institutions
that provide traditional GIS solutions. such as the World Bank can depict
RS Other
the actual impact of these projects
•• Companies analyze social data to
and initiatives within the context of
map location-specific trends based
urbanization, public health, land use,
on consumer behavior patterns while Remote Emerging
and climate change. The data will es- Technologies
consumers demand geospatial data Sensing
pecially support further resilience
for mobile technologies.
with respect to climate change.
Sources: Gartner 2012, The World Bank 2016, Sources: Deloitte 2012
Deloitte 2012
44 45The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World |
Drivers The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World | Drivers
Globalization Brazil, China and India combined are projected to account for 40 percent
of global output by 2050, up from 10 percent in 1950
The liberalization of global economic policy has opened
borders, supply chains, and trade patterns, creating
impacts in one country or region that affect or cascade Brazil, China, and India combined are projected to account for 40 percent of global output by 2050,
up from 10 percent in 1950
to others, based on market activity.
60
Projection
Importance Impact
•• Reduced poverty, increased develop- •• People who are employed in shrink- 50
ment, and economic growth have ing industries will presumably need
been shown to result from a country’s to learn new skills in order to find
integration into the world economy. occupations in different industries,
Share of global output (%)
40
Annual world trade growth has aver- and may have to move from home
aged 6% over the past 20 years and with their families to find new job
is thus growing twice as fast as world opportunities.
output. 30
•• Due to globalization, economies
•• Nowadays, flows of data across throughout the world have become
countries are 45 times higher com- more competitive and interdependent
pared to one decade ago and have regarding trade in goods and services 20
a higher impact on the economy and also capital flows.
than flows of manufactured goods.
•• Major research universities should
10
•• By using e-commerce platforms such focus on attracting the best talents in
as Amazon, Alibaba, or eBay, millions order to stay competitive and should
of small companies are now able to thus be seeking international partners.
export goods globally. 0
Sources: Brookings Institution 2016, Deloitte 1820 1860 1900 1940 1980 2010 2050
University 2014, Forbes 2010
Brazil, China and India Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and the United States
Note: Output is measured in 1990 purchasing power parity dollars.
Sources: UNDP 2014
46 47The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World |
Drivers The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World | Drivers
Industry Consolidation Stage of consolidation by industry
After a minor decline in 2016, merger and acquisition
activity – particularly across borders – is expected to
increase, especially with the return of private equity
buyers to the transaction market.
Stage of consolidation by industry
Importance Impact
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
•• Diversifying sources of supply •• The order situation for aerospace
Opening Scale Focus Balance and
across different countries (35%), suppliers is as high as never before, Alliance
re-shoring production to domestic because manufacturers are speeding
vendors (33%), and consolidating up their production in response to
vendors (28%) represent the top the increased demand for commer-
Defense
three strategies applied by retailers cial airplanes.
Automatic controls
nowadays.
•• Gartner predicts that one fourth Tobacco
Level of Consolidation
•• Due to the strong last quarter in 2016 of the top 100 providers of IT infra- Shoes
Soft drinks
and poor organic growth prospects, structure will disappear within the Distillers
Shipbuilding
experts believe the M&A boom will next two years.
Aerospace suppliers
carry on in 2017. In particular, a flow Truck builders
of capital from Asia to Europe and Sources: The Wall Street Journal 2015, The Wall Toys
Rubber & tire producers
from Europe to the USA is expected. Street Journal 2012, Financial Times 2016
Automotive OEMs
Food
•• The travel industry, which accounts Steelmakers
for US $7.6 trillion, faces a small up- Breweries
Restaurants & fast food
ward trend in consolidations as well.
Pulp & paper
Railway
Automotive suppliers
Telecom Chemicals
Airlines Drugs
Services
Utilities
Banks
Insurance
Time
Sources: Harvard Business Review 2002
48 49The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World |
Drivers The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World | Drivers
Internet of Things
$2.5 trillion
The ecosystem of electronic devices connected to the Internet in increased
employee
that can be accessed remotely continues to grow (e.g., sensor productivity
technology, wearable technologies, connected vehicles).
Importance Impact $2.5 trillion
$3.0 trillion
in reduced
from reduced
•• In 2016, global spending on secu- •• The Internet of Things is increasingly costs
time to market
rity for the Internet of Things (IoT) considered as “purposefully bounded
accounted for US $348 million, ac- for deliberate intent and outcomes”
cording to a prediction by Gartner. by companies. They see the IoT as
This would represent an increase of being focused on particular business
INTERNET of
THINGS
23.7% compared to spending of US processes, functions, and domains.
$281.5 million in 2015.
•• Many companies, ranging from
•• According to Gartner, the number of small- through medium-sized to
connected things in use globally will, large companies, design software
at 6.4 billion, represent an increase and develop online services that
$14.4 trillion
of 30% compared to 2015. By 2020, coordinate smart devices to lever-
the number is expected to increase age the IoT.
to 20.8 billion overall. Est. value of the global
•• The large amount of data emerging
•• It is thought that 5.5 million things from IoT applications will be one of Internet of Things
market by 2022 $2.7 trillion
have been connected every day in the biggest benefits of this new trend, in supply chain
2016. according to industry executives. In and logistics
particular, the data can be used to
•• Gartner predicts that IoT-related
gain more insights into products’ use $3.7 trillion
services spending will be up by 22%
and operations which can result in from improved
(US $235 billion) in 2016 compared
enhanced product design. customer
to 2015. experience
Sources: Gartner 2016, Deloitte 2016, The Wall
Street Journal 2015
Sources: Deloitte 2016
50 51The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World |
Drivers The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World | Drivers
Knowledge Worker The Rise of Knowledge Worker
The Rise of the Knowledge Worker
Intellectual capital has risen in value compared to Workers are classified by whether their occupation is primarily cognitive or manual work,
Workers are classified by whether their occupation is primarily cognitive or manual work, and
physical labor and financial capital, placing a premium and whether
whether or the
or not not tasks
the tasks
are are routine.
routine. Knowledge
Knowledge work
work is non-routine
is nonroutine cognitive
cognitive work.
work.
on the creation, acquisition, management, and applica-
tion of knowledge to gain a competitive advantage. 70
Importance Impact
Amount of workers in million in the USA
60
•• As a result of the rapid increase in •• While the rise of automation reduces
information and communication the number of jobs that require little
technologies (ICT), knowledge know-how or critical thinking, firms 50
is nowadays generated and dis- should be seeking novel ways of
seminated in quantities that have attracting highly skilled people and
never been achieved before. retaining them in the company in 40
the long term.
•• Since the 1980s, knowledge-inten-
sive occupations have led to approx- •• Different business models are neces- 30
imately 2 million new jobs every year, sary to attract and retain skillful per-
even though an increasing number sonnel. Google’s 80/20 Program was
of jobs are affected by the rise of once considered a pioneer in intro- 20
automation. ducing the concept of passion pro-
jects at work; now several organiza-
•• Telecommunications, finance, in-
tions have introduced programs to 10
surance, business services, health,
promote creative thinking and em-
and education represent examples
ployee autonomy.
of knowledge-intensive industries.
0
•• As knowledge-intensive jobs increase
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
in importance, companies’ employ-
ment costs for these positions rise Non-routine cognitive workers (Knowledge workers)
accordingly. Companies should thus Routine cognitive workers
focus on enhanced productivity in
order to achieve positive returns. Routine manual workers
Non-routine manual workers
Sources: The Wall Street Journal 2016, Financial
Times 2011, Harvard Business Review 2006
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 2016
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