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Canadian Marijuana
lndustry Snapshot
MJBizDaily.com
%
Canadian Marijuana Industry
Snapshot: 17 Charts
Welcome to the first edition of the Canadian Marijuana Industry & Market Snapshot Report,
produced by the research team at Marijuana Business Daily.
In many ways, Canada’s marijuana industry is setting the standard for the rest of the world.
The country’s decision to legalize medical marijuana at the federal level created a thriving and
competitive market filled with large, sophisticated players that are expanding internationally
at a rapid clip. And now Canada is poised to become the first G7 nation to legalize recreational
cannabis.
The swift pace at which Canada’s marijuana sector is advancing has drawn the attention of
investors, entrepreneurs and policymakers from the United States and abroad, many of whom may
be unfamiliar with the unique dynamics of these burgeoning new industries.
In this report, you’ll find 17 key charts designed to provide a snapshot of Canada’s marijuana
industry and its potential going forward.
These charts provide a glimpse into:
• How Canada’s medical market and the companies operating within it have
progressed over time.
• Business opportunities in the country’s soon-to-be established rec market.
• The current size of the medical cannabis market and estimates for the future.
• Differences in the Canadian versus U.S. marijuana markets.
The majority of data in this report comes from Canadian governmental entities – primarily Health
Canada and the Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer. Because marijuana is legal at the
federal level and many cannabis businesses in the country are publicly traded, the amount and
quality of data about Canada’s marijuana industry are much higher than in the United States.
The writing of Matt Lamers, a Toronto-based reporter at Marijuana Business Daily who covers the
Canadian marijuana industry exclusively, also deserves recognition – as his work provided the basis
for much of the analysis in this report.
If you have any suggestions or want to provide feedback, please contact me at elim@mjbizdaily.com.
Best regards,
Eli McVey
Marijuana Business Daily Analyst
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Current Situation
Canada effectively legalized medical marijuana in 2001, though the original bill was replaced by
the Marijuana for Medical Purposes Regulations (MMPR) in 2014. This new legislation authorized
the production of MMJ through federally licensed producers, which supply medical cannabis to
patients throughout the country via a mail-order system. As of early November, 69 production
licenses have been issued throughout Canada.
Chart 1.01: Number Of MMJ Production Licenses By Province
Number Of MMJ Produc�on Licenses By Province
Saskatchewan
3
British Columbia Alberta Newfoundland and
16 4 Manitoba Labrador
0
2
Quebec
2
Ontario
39
Prince Edward Island
New Brunswick 1
2
Nova Scotia
0
Source: Health Canada
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Not all of Canada’s licensed producers are permitted to sell MMJ, however. After a producer is
approved to begin cultivating marijuana, the company must pass a series of tests and inspections
before any product can be shipped to patients. On average, it has taken 12 to 18 months for
producers to receive licenses to sell.
Thousands of businesses have submitted applications to produce MMJ in Canada, the vast majority
of which have been refused, withdrawn or were incomplete. As of early November, over 400
companies were waiting for Health Canada (the country’s health department) to review their
applications, though just a small percentage are likely to move forward in the process.
Chart 1.02: Marijuana Production Licenses By Type
Marijuana Produc�on Licenses By Type
Sale Only Cultivation & Sale
4 34
Cultivation Only
31
Sale Only
4
Cultivation & Sale
34
Pending Applications
428
Source: Health Canada
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In the United States – where marijuana is illegal in the eyes of the federal government – each
state operates its own cannabis industry. In Canada, however, medical marijuana is legal at the
federal level, and the government has left production in the hands of a relatively small number of
companies.
Canada also requires each MMJ producer to be vertically integrated, meaning the company grows
its own cannabis, manufactures its own extracts and handles all aspects of sales in-house. Some
medical marijuana markets in the United States also mandate vertical integration, but most states
license businesses across the entire supply chain.
Though dispensaries are currently illegal in Canada, they do exist. Most operate in major cities such
as Toronto and Vancouver, where officials have not prioritized enforcement of the law unless there
are complaints.
Chart 1.03: Number Of Plant-Touching Marijuana Businesses In Canada Compared To The United States
Number Of Plant-Touching Marijuana Businesses
In Canada Compared To The United States
Country Business Type
Medical Dispensaries/Rec
3,300 - 4,300
Stores (estimated)
United Wholesale Cultivators
2,500 - 3,500
States (estimated)
Infused Product
1,600 - 2,000
Manufacturers (estimated)
Licensed Producers 60
Canada
Illegal Dispensaries
350
(estimated)
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500
Number Of Businesses
Note: Estimated number of businesses operating in the United States includes both medical and recreational companies as of April 2017. Figures
regarding licensed Canadian businesses were gathered in early November 2017. Estimates for the number of illegal dispensaries in Canada were
released in April 2016.
Source: Marijuana Business Daily Factbook 2017, Health Canada, Canadian Association of Medical Cannabis Dispensaries
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The number of MMJ patients in Canada has boomed over the last several quarters, corresponding
with the rise of large, federally licensed marijuana producers in the country. Some observers
believe that patients are taking advantage of the liberal list of qualifying MMJ conditions to legally
acquire cannabis for recreational purposes. Others, however, attribute the rise in patients to
increased awareness of the potential medicinal uses of marijuana among both the general public
and physicians. In reality, it’s likely a mix of both factors.
Chart 1.04: Total Number Of Registered MMJ Patients In Canada
Total Number Of Registered MMJ Patients In Canada
Patients % Change From Previous Quarter
250K 60%
201,398
200K 50%
% Change From Previous Quarter
167,754
40%
150K
Patients
129,876
30%
98,460
100K
75,166 20%
53,649
50K 39,668
30,537 10%
23,930
15,545 18,512
7,914 12,409
0K 0%
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: Health Canada
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The increase in patients has fueled a sharp rise in sales. The medical market is expected to
generate approximately $250 million by the end of 2017, representing a 65% increase over 2016
MMJ sales. While the total dollar value of the market is impressive, the rapid growth is driving
enthusiasm among Canadian MMJ businesses and investors.
Chart 1.05: Estimated Retail Value Of Canadian Medical Marijuana Market
Estimated Retail Value Of Canadian Medical Marijuana Market
$300M
$250M
$250M
$200M
Estimated Value
$150M $139M
$100M
$46M
$50M
$12M
$0M
2014 2015 2016 2017
Note: 2017 sales estimates are projections based on MMJ patient growth in the first two quarters of 2017. All values in USD.
Source: Marijuana Business Daily
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In July 2015, Canadian MMJ producers were given the green light to begin producing marijuana
extracts, which are sold to patients in the form of cannabis oil. Much like in the United States,
extracts have gained traction in Canada’s medical market. Patients treating severe and chronic
conditions typically need larger, easily ingestible doses of THC to provide symptom relief – which
has helped fuel overall sales growth.
Chart 1.06: Amount Of Dried Marijuana & Oil Sold To Patients
Amount Of Dried Marijuana & Oil Sold To Patients
Amount Dried MJ Sold (kg) Amount Oil Sold (kg)
14K
12K
10K
5,896
Kilograms Sold
5,836
8K
5,134
6K
4,773
4K
4,037
5,673 6,194
2K 3,082 4,109
596 789 1,873 2,481 2,420
408 979 1,371 1,500
0K
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: Health Canada
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Since cannabis oil was introduced to the market in the first quarter of 2016, the rate of sales
growth has outpaced that of dried marijuana in every quarter. Cannabis oil now accounts for about
half of all marijuana sales in the country, where it appears to have stabilized.
Chart 1.07: Percentage Of MMJ Sales From Dried Marijuana
Percentage Of MMJ Sales From Dried Marijuana
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
100%
84%
80%
73%
% Sales From Dried MJ
66%
60% 56%
51% 49%
40%
20%
0%
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: Health Canada
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A limited number of MMJ producers in Canada, combined with rising patient counts and growing
MMJ sales, have enabled the country’s licensed marijuana companies to grow much larger than
their U.S. counterparts. Due to the federally illegal nature of marijuana in the United States, the
country’s largest publicly traded businesses focused specifically on the marijuana industry – Terra
Tech and Kush Bottles – do not actually touch the plant. Providing goods to cannabis companies
that do touch the plant allows Terra Tech and Kush Bottles to trade in OTC markets, though their
overall value is limited relative to public marijuana companies in Canada.
Chart 1.08: Sampling Of Publically Traded Marijuana Company Market Caps: Canada Compared To The United
States
Sampling Of Publically Traded Marijuana Company Market Caps:
Canada Compared To The United States
Canadian MJ Companies U.S. MJ Companies
Canopy Growth Corporation $1,776,000,000
Aurora Cannabis $856,000,000
Terra Tech $118,000,000
Kush Bottles $108,300,000
$0M $500M $1,000M $1,500M $2,000M
Note: All values in USD, current as of 10/26/17.
Source: Yahoo Finance
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contained herein, in part or in whole. For more copies or editorial permissions, contact CustomerService@MJBizDaily.com or call 401.354.7555 x1.Canadian Marijuana Industry Snapshot: 17 Charts
Because MMJ is legal at the federal level in Canada, marijuana producers are allowed to export
cannabis products and establish large operations in other countries that have also legalized
marijuana. Cannabis businesses in the United States, however, operate regardless of the federal
government and are not even permitted to ship product across state lines.
That’s given Canadian MMJ producers a major opportunity to establish a presence in emerging
international markets, and several companies have taken significant steps to do so.
Chart 1.09: Sampling Of Canadian Marijuana Company International Activity
Sampling Of Canadian Marijuana Company International Activity
Toronto-based Cronos Group took its first step overseas
through its wholly owned subsidiary Peace Naturals
Project by exporting medical marijuana to Germany in
October 2016.
Saskatoon-based CanniMed marked its first shipment of
commercial cannabis oil to Australia with the sale of
3,600 milliliters of oil to Health House International, a
medical cannabis wholesaler in Perth.
British Columbia-based Tilray plans to spend $20 million
to build a medical marijuana production facility in
Portugal to serve the European Union. The new facility
is slated to begin operation in 2018 and is expected to
ultimately produce 55,116 pounds of MMJ by 2020.
Burlington, Ontario-based Maricann Group established
a subsidiary in Germany called Maricann GmbH and
raised $42 million to further expand production there.
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Exports of MMJ from Canada were nonexistent just a couple of years ago but now represent a
considerable growth opportunity for licensed producers. Based on year-to-date totals, Canadian
MMJ producers are on pace to export approximately 255 kilograms (562 pounds) of dried
marijuana and cannabis oil in 2017, which would represent a 75% increase over 2016.
Chart 1.10: Canadian Marijuana Exports: 2015 – 2017 YTD
Canadian Marijuana Exports:
2015 - 2017 YTD
2015 Cannabis Oil 2016
Dried Cannabis 2017
120
100.8
Marijuana Exported From Canada (kg)
100 94.7
80
60
44.8 45.5
40
20
0 0.0 0.0
2015 2016 2017
Source: Health Canada through 7/20/17
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Preparing For Recreational Sales
In April 2017, Canada’s government introduced legislation in the House of Commons to legalize
recreational marijuana, proposing that existing licensed medical cannabis producers get first crack
at business licenses and setting July 1, 2018, as the target date for legalization.
Canada is leaving it up to each province to determine key regulations that will have a major effect
on cannabis businesses, including where marijuana can be purchased and consumed, how it is
taxed and who can sell it. As of early November, only New Brunswick and Ontario have officially
unveiled models for how recreational marijuana will be sold, though several provinces have
released draft regulations – offering a glance at the direction policymakers in each province are
heading.
Chart 1.11: Preliminary Status Of Recreational Marijuana Regulations By Province
Preliminary Status Of Recreational Marijuana Regulations By Province
Alberta Quebec
Retail Structure: May allow private retailers Retail Structure: Government-run
Legal Age of Consumption: 18 Legal Age of Consumption: 18
British Columbia Manitoba
Retail Structure: May allow private retailers Newfoundland & Labrador
Retail Structure: May allow private retailers
Legal Age of Consumption: TBD Retail Structure: TBD
Legal Age of Consumption: TBD
Legal Age of Consumption: TBD
Saskatchewan
Retail Structure: TBD
Legal Age of Consumption: TBD
Ontario
Retail Structure: Government-run
Legal Age of Consumption: 19 Prince Edward Island
New Brunswick Retail Structure: Likely government-run
Retail Structure: Government-run Legal Age of Consumption: TBD
Legal Age of Consumption: 19
Nova Scotia
Retail Structure: TBD
Legal Age of Consumption: TBD
Source: Marijuana Business Daily
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How big will the rec market be?
Canada’s Parliamentary Budget Office estimates the number of cannabis users aged 15 or older in
the country at 3.6 million to 7 million by 2021, with a midpoint estimate of 5.2 million. While these
figures include both recreational and medical users – and it’s unlikely that any Canadian province
will allow customers younger than 18 to purchase adult-use cannabis – the ranges provide a
general idea of the potential size of the consumer base several years after rec sales begin.
Note that cannabis users can differ considerably in their consumption habits, which will ultimately
affect the market and business opportunities.
Chart 1.12: Estimated Number Of Cannabis Users In Canada In 2021: Breakdown By Frequency Of Use
Estimated Number Of Cannabis Users In Canada In 2021:
Breakdown By Frequency Of Use
One To Three
Percentage Of Less Than Once A Month Times At Least Once A Week Daily
Users 36% A Month 26% 14%
17%
Once Per Year
0.06% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
Percentage Of At Least Once A Week Daily
Consumption 26% 72%
One To Three
Times A Month
2%
Source: Canada's Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
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The retail value of Canada’s rec market is hard to pin down, as the rules and regulations
governing the new industry have yet to be finalized. However, a rough approximation of potential
domestic sales can be formed using the number of estimated cannabis users in the country and
their corresponding consumption rates provided in the previous chart along with a series of
assumptions regarding the development of Canada’s rec market:
• The number of cannabis users aged 18 or older in the country by 2021 will be
between 3.4 million and 6.7 million.
• Recreational cannabis will be sold initially for $8 per gram. Based on pricing trends
in Colorado’s rec market, this will fall to $6.25 by 2021.
• Assuming Canada’s black-market prices fall at a similar rate as legal marijuana
prices, approximately 80% of all marijuana consumption will take place in the legal
market.
• 95% of all legal marijuana users will purchase from the recreational market.
Set to be the first major country to legalize the sale of recreational marijuana, Canada will likely
draw a significant number of international tourists looking to partake legally. But purchasing
marijuana in another country may prove more onerous than simply crossing into another state with
adult-use sales, making it difficult to predict how much an impact this will have on the size of the
market. However, even conservative estimates suggest tourist spending on recreational marijuana
will be in the hundreds of millions of dollars.
Chart 1.13: Estimated Sales Of Recreational Marijuana In Canada To Domestic Users In 2021
Estimated Sales Of Recreational Marijuana In Canada To Domestic Users In 2021
$5.0B
$4.5B
$4.0B
$3.3B
Estimated Rec Sales
$3.0B
$2.3B
$2.0B
$1.0B
$0.0B
Low-End Estimate Middle Estimate High-End Estimate
Note: All values in USD.
Source: Marijuana Business Daily
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But with rec sales slated to begin in summer 2018, Canadian marijuana producers likely won’t be
prepared to meet initial demand. Since MMJ sales began, the addressable market for licensed
producers has been limited strictly to registered patients – an extremely small number relative
to the amount of potential rec customers in the country. Assuming rec sales begin on time, at
least in some areas, Canada’s rec market is expected to experience a supply shortage until more
production capacity comes online.
Chart 1.14: Canadian Marijuana Production & Estimated Future Demand
Canadian Marijuana Production & Estimated Future Demand
Estimated Current
Licensed Annual
Marijuana Production
Estimated Cannabis Consumption In 2018
90,000 kg
655,000 kg
Source: Canada's Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
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In anticipation of a supply shortage, licensed producers continue to bolster their inventories ahead
of adult-use sales. The growth in the amount of dried marijuana and cannabis oil in producers’
inventories from the January-March period in 2017 to the April-June period was the largest
quarter-over-quarter increase in more than two years.
Chart 1.15: Amount Of Marijuana In Licensed Producers’ Inventories At End Of Month
Amount Of Marijuana In Licensed Producers' Inventories At End Of Month
Cannabis Oil (kg) Dried Marijuana (kg)
35K
30K
Kilograms In Producers' Inventories
25K
20K 25,077
15K 18,140
18,087
10K 13,246
11,788
10,695
5K 9,729
7,312 6,713
1,134 4,667 5,445 5,198
2,994 3,330 3,724
0K 2,021 2,038
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: Health Canada
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Regulators have also taken notice, revamping and streamlining the application process and
dedicating more resources to licensing additional processors ahead of rec legalization.
Chart 1.16: Number Of Marijuana Producer Licenses Issued By Quarter
Number Of Marijuana Producer Licenses Issued By Quarter
14
13
12
12
New Producer Licenses Issued
10
9
8
6
4 4
4
3 3
2 2 2 2 2
2
1 1 1 1
0
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: Health Canada
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But despite the short-term volatility expected in the rec market, investors are largely bullish on
the future for the country’s entire marijuana industry. The funding windfall comes as Canadian
cannabis companies are preparing to boost supply in response to the planned start of recreational
sales next summer, the nation’s booming medical marijuana market and overseas demand for their
products.
Chart 1.17: Investments In Canadian Marijuana Companies
Investments In Canadian Marijuana Companies
1st Half 2016 $43M
1st Half 2017 $770M
Total Capital Raised (USD)
Source: Viridian Capital Advisors
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