How unusual was the UK's weather in 2010?
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Local residents walk on the frozen River Thames at Windsor, 24 January 1963
during the coldest UK winter of the 20th century
How unusual was the UK’s weather in 2010?
Mike Kendon, National Climate Information Centre (NCIC)
Acknowledgements: John Prior, Dan Hollis, Tim Legg, Margaret Elms, Mark Beswick
© Crown copyright Met Office
National Climate Information Centre
Who are we? What do we do?
• Monitor the UK climate and produce UK
climate statistics e.g. monthly, seasonal and
annual summaries, averages and extremes
• Provide climate data to a wide range of
customers, including government departments,
the media and research bodies
John Prior
• Report upon noteworthy weather events and
place them in context
• Develop climate data analysis and
presentation techniques (e.g. gridded data and
mapped presentations)
• Develop and maintain historic series e.g. the
Central England Temperature (CET) series –
Dan Hollis the worlds longest instrumental record of
Tim Legg temperature from 1659.
• Disseminate information (mainly via the web
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/climate.html)
• Represent UK interests in the European
Climate Support Network (ECSN)
Margaret Elms
(recently retired) Mike Kendon
© Crown copyright Met Office
How do we produce maps and statistics for the UK and regions?
• Station network is irregularly spaced and changes with time
• Observations are interpolated on a regular grid, using inverse
distance weighting. Topography is taken into account.
Methodology is in published papers.
• Gridded data provide a consistent time-series, continuous in
Network of automatic and space and time
manual weather stations
• Gridded data can be used to produce areal values (e.g. for the
UK or districts) and maps
“The generation of monthly gridded data sets for a range of climatic variables over the UK”,
Matthew Perry and Dan Hollis, Int Journal of Climatology, 25, pp1041-1054, 2005
“The development of a new set of long-term climate averages for the UK”, Matthew Perry and
© Crown copyright Met Office Dan Hollis, Int Journal of Climatology, 25, pp1023-1039, 2005
© Crown copyright Met Office
UK monthly mean temperatures: 2010
The most significant
negative temperature
anomalies in at least
the last decade
Notable run of
warmer than average
months since mid
1980s
© Crown copyright Met Office
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
The coldest year in
the UK since 1986
The coldest year for minimum temperatures in Scotland and N Ireland
th
since 1919
1919 1963 The 12 coldest year in the
series from 1910
© Crown copyright Met Office
© Crown copyright Met Office
Year 2010 - Rainfall
• Marked east / west contrast – consistent
with prolonged blocked weather patterns
and absence of westerly air-streams
• Dry areas larger than wet areas
• Total rainfall 940mm, 83% of average
• Driest year since 2003
• 10th driest year in last 100
© Crown copyright Met Office
© Crown copyright Met Office
Year 2010 - Sunshine
• A sunny year overall – provisionally 9th
sunniest in a series from 1929.
• Total sunshine 1477 hours, 109% of
average
• However, the second half of summer
(July and August) was disappointingly
dull
• Among the sunniest years on record in
Wales and Northern Ireland.
• Caution is needed with sunshine maps
due to two instrument types and
limited size and distribution of the
network
© Crown copyright Met Office2010: weather in the news
• 06/01/2010 Schools closed and travellers hit by snow http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8442739.stm
• 26/02/2010 Glencoe ski site is ‘World’s snowiest’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/highlands_and_islands/8538404.stm
• 01/04/2010 Thousands in Scotland without power overnight http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-10712888
• 28/06/2010 Britain balmier than Bermuda http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/3032097/Britain-balmier-
than-Bermuda.html
• 01/07/2010 Record-breaking dry spell brings fire risk to mountains
http://www.grough.co.uk/magazine/2010/06/30/record-breaking-dry-spell-brings-fire-risk-to-mountains
• 21/07/2010 Perth struck by serious flooding http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-10712888
• 12/11/2010 Westcountry battered by 70mph winds and heavy rain
http://www.thisiscornwall.co.uk/news/Region-hit-70mph-winds-heavy-rain/article-2882283-detail/article.html
• 18/11/2010 Cornwall mops up after devastating flash floods
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/nov/18/cornwall-flash-floods-weather
• 01/12/2010 Heavy snow halts Gatwick Airport flights http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-11884342
• 05/12/2010 Snow forces eight-day lock-in at Kirkbymoorside pub http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-york-
north-yorkshire-11921396
• 18/12/2010 Forty crashes after freeze in Dumfries & Galloway http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-south-
scotland-12214324
• 29/12/2010 Anger grows at Northern Ireland water shortage
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/dec/29/northern-ireland-water-
shortagehttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/northernireland/8233605/Northern-Ireland-water-crisis-misery-
© Crowncontinues-for-thousands.html
copyright Met OfficeNoteworthy weather events – 2010
• Winter 2009/10
• January to June dry spell
• Autumn gales 11/12 November
• Cornwall flooding 16/17 November
• Severe winter weather November / December
© Crown copyright Met OfficeWinter 2009/10
• Characterised by easterly or
northerly winds bringing cold air
from northern Europe.
• Blocked weather patterns with an
absence of rain-bearing Atlantic
fronts
Notably low minima on 7th January:
-17.7 °C at Benson (Oxfordshire)
-17.6 °C at Woodford (Greater Manchester)
-16.0 °C at Yeovilton (Somerset)
-15.7 °C at Pershore (Worcestershire)
Lowest winter temperature:
Altnaharra (Sutherland) -22.3 °C,
January 8th
Greatest snow depth (low level)
Balmoral (Aberdeenshire) 70cm on
February 26th
• Impacts: travel delays, accidents,
disruptions to water and electricity
supplies, school closures, increased
hospital admissions
© Crown copyright Met OfficeWinter 2009/10: temperatures
Run of mild
winters
Winter The coldest winter in
1979 the UK since 1979
Winter Winter
1947 1963
Temperatures
Main cold spell late remained below
December to mid- average through much
January of February
© Crown copyright Met OfficeUK Snow Winter 2009/10 Satellite image at 1150 GMT on Thursday 7 January 11 months later…spot the difference. 2010 shows the UK almost entirely covered in a blanket Satellite image on Christmas Eve 24 December Satellite of snow. Photo: NASA/GSFC, MODIS Rapid Response. Receiving Station, Dundee University © Crown copyright Met Office
Snow on the Macclesfield-Buxton road 7 January 2010
Example of an avalanche south of Braemar, early April 2010
Ice on the River Blackwater, Essex Coast winter 1963
Snow in the North York Moors, winter 1947
© Crown copyright Met OfficeWinter 2010: summary
• Coldest UK winter since 1978/79.
• Most severe in the north. Equal 2nd coldest
winter of the last 100 years in Northern Ireland
and Scotland; only winter 1963 was colder.
• Prolonged, deep lying snow in the Highlands.
Temperatures regularly well below -10°C.
• Most widespread and significant snowfalls since
mid-1980s
• Winter 2010 overall was nowhere near as severe
as 1947 (in terms of volume of snow) or 1963
and 1979 (in terms of persistence of snow).
• Marked absence of widespread snowfalls in
recent winters. Several unusually mild winters in
last 20 years.
• Public more susceptible to travel disruption -
more vehicles, longer commuting, more
flights…These factors may have affected the
perceived severity of the winter, especially
across England and Wales.
• Also a hard winter elsewhere in northern Europe,
while southern Europe was very wet.
• For more information, see
Prior, J. and Kendon, M. 2011. The UK winter of
2009/2010 compared with severe winters of the
last 100 years. Weather. 66: 4-9.
Snowdrifts in Wales winter 1963. Tredegar reported a level depth of 1.6 metres
© Crown copyright Met Office• 6 months of below average rainfall in most areas: Jan (66%) Feb(86%) Mar (83%) Apr (69%) May (59%) Jun (53%) • UK January to June total was only 70 % of the 1971 to 2000 average • The driest January to June in the UK since 1953 and the driest since 1929 in North- West England and North Wales © Crown copyright Met Office
UK monthly rainfall: 2010
Seven consecutive
months of below
average rainfall
© Crown copyright Met OfficeDry period January to June 2010
• Growing concern over water
resources, especially in the
west
• Hose-pipe ban introduced on
9th July 2010 in North-West
England, affecting 6.5 million
customers
© Crown copyright Met OfficeVery wet in North and West. Eased Dry areas in July were very wet in
water resource concerns in these August. East Anglia: equal third
areas – although some flooding wettest August in 100 year series.
© Crown copyright Met OfficeAnother wet July. For the UK, the wettest four year sequence in the last 100 years
July rainfall total at
Capel Curig:
363 mm July 2010
344 mm July 2009
196 mm July 2008
329 mm July 2007
LTA around 140mm!
2007 2008 2009 2010
194% 155% 209% 155%
Summer: not great, but an improvement on the last three
2007 2008 2009 2010
158% 141% 142% 110%
© Crown copyright Met OfficeAutumn gales 11/12 November
Maximum gust speed (knots) 00 GMT
Thursday 11 to 09 GMT Friday 12 November
Synoptic situation 1800 GMT Thursday 11 November
• Flights affected at Manchester and Leeds Bradford
airports
• High winds brought down power lines in Northern
Ireland – affecting 100’s of homes
• One fatality
• Ferry services disrupted and dangerous driving
conditions
© Crown copyright Met OfficeFlooding in Cornwall 16/17
November 2010
• Deep area of low pressure brought rain and
gales to western parts of the UK.
• A line of intensive convective rainfall developed
within the frontal system
• 45 mm of rainfall in 2 hours at Heligan (near
Mevagissey)
© Crown copyright Met OfficeFlooding in Cornwall 16/17
November 2010 - impacts
• Intense rainfall led to rapid surface run-off,
leading to flash flooding.
• More than 100 properties flooded. Roads closed.
London – Penzance railway line closed due to
land-slides
The high street in
Mevagissey • The 2-hour rainfall total of 45mm has an
estimated return period of 50 years (1 in 50
chance each year).
• The short, steep nature of Cornwall’s river
catchments make them particularly vulnerable to
this type of flooding (for example, Boscastle 16th
August 2004).
Floodwater in Mevagissey
• Katie Penny 24, manager of The Ship Inn [Mevagissey], said: "I
live above the pub and when I came down this morning it was
just a scene of utter devastation. The bar was waste deep in
muddy, brown water and chairs and stools were
floating around the pub. I knew the rain had been heavy
overnight but I never expected this. I only took over the pub a
month ago and who knows who long it will take to get it back on Boscastle: 16th August 2004. Locally 150mm of
its feet." rainfall in 4 hours.
© Crown copyright Met OfficeSevere winter weather - November / December 2010
- the most significant
widespread snowfalls of
late November / early
December since 26-30
November 1965
Start of the spell: 0000 GMT Thursday 25 November:
a north-easterly flow draws air from Siberia.
0000 GMT Wednesday 1 December:
winds have veered to the east bringing snow
© Crown
acrosscopyright
southern Met Office
partsSevere winter weather - November / December 2010
1800 GMT Thursday 16 December: a bitterly cold
northerly airstream over the UK follows a cold
front
0000 GMT Saturday 25 December Christmas Day:
high pressure and sunny but bitterly cold. Snow
deep
© Crown and crisp
copyright and
Met even…
OfficeDecember 2010
• Easily the coldest
December in the Mean Temp
Month
UK in the last 100 (degC)
years
Feb-47 -2.0
• One of the coldest Jan-63 -1.8
months of the last
Feb-86 -1.2
100 years and the
coldest month Jan-40 -1.1
since February Feb-63 -1.1
1986
Dec-10 -1.0
© Crown copyright Met OfficeDecember 2010: Central England
Temperature series
Size: 524 × 600
Type: 33KB JPG
This image may
King James be subject
II crowned to copyright.
3 voyages of Captain Queen Victoria’s World War 1
February 1685 Cook 1768 - 1779 coronation 1838 1914-1918 December 2010
Monthly Mean Central England Temperature - December
9.0
8.0
7.0
Mean December CET (degC)
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
The coldest December since 1890
0.0
-1.0
The second coldest December in a series from 1659
-2.0
1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Year
© Crown copyright Met OfficeYear 2010: Extremes and records
Extremes
• Highest max 31.7 °C at Gravesend (Kent) on 9th July. Temperatures
reached 30 °C on only 3 days – 27th June, 9th and 10th July
• Lowest min -22.3 °C at Altnaharra (Highland) on 8th January - the
lowest UK temperature since 30th December 1995. Temperatures fell
below -20 °C on 3 days in January and 5 days in December
• Highest rainfall total (to date) 103 mm at Seathwaite (Cumbria) in 24
hours to 0900 GMT on 14th September. In comparison, Seathwaite
recorded 253mm on 19th November 2009.
• Highest wind gusts 125 m.p.h. at Cairngorm Summit on 8th November
and 91 m.p.h. at Capel Curig on 11th November. 2010 saw relatively
few very windy days. (The windiest period was early to mid-November)
Records
• Provisional new Northern Ireland lowest minimum -18.7 °C at
Castlederg (County Tyrone) on morning of 23rd December. Previous
record -17.5 °C at Magherally (County Down) on 1st January 1979
• Provisional new Northern Ireland lowest maximum -11.3 °C at Edenfel
(County Tyrone) on 23rd December
• New record low maximum and minimum temperatures for November in
Wales and Northern Ireland
© Crown copyright Met OfficeYear 2010: Summary
• 2010 was colder, drier and sunnier than average in most areas,
particularly the west. There were prolonged periods with blocked
weather patterns, and an associated absence of westerly airstreams.
• The spells of severe winter weather during winter 2009/10 and
November / December 2010 were unusual - especially after a run of
mild winters in the last 20 years - but not unprecedented
• The weather experienced during 2010 is part of the natural variability of
the UK’s climate. However, other drivers may have been an influence:
la Nina (counterpart of El Nino), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO),
changes in Arctic sea-ice, variations in radiation from the sun
• The UK is situated at a ‘cross-roads’ in global-scale atmospheric
movements. With polar latitudes to the north, subtropics to the south,
the Atlantic to the west and the Eurasian landmass to the east, our
weather can be highly varied and challenging to predict.
• “Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get” attr. Mark Twain
© Crown copyright Met OfficeQuestions Further information on the climate of the UK, including monthly, seasonal and annual summaries and statistics, is available at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/climate.html © Crown copyright Met Office
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