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Jio-FB: The    Supply Chain
businesstoday.in       Game Changer   Redefined

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May 17, 2020 `100

 Clashing Tiger, Fuming Dragon
     The Modi GovernMenT TiGhTens iTs Grip on invesTMenTs FroM
      China, siGnallinG an adversarial eConoMiC relaTionship
          ThaT will require deFT ManoeuvrinG To sTay ahead
Clashing Tiger, Fuming Dragon - India Today Group
Clashing Tiger, Fuming Dragon - India Today Group
From the Editor
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When Fear Feeds on Fear                                                                                      Editor-in-Chief: aroon purie
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                                                                                                                 Editor: Rajeev Dubey
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F
                                                                                                            Executive Editor: anand adhikari
         ear feeds on fear. There’s no greater fear in world economies today than                           Deputy Editors: ajita Shashidhar,
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         China, as countries grapple with the fallout of the pandemic that origi-
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it allowed to spread intentionally? Was it meant to destruct the world’s biggest                                          correspondents
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market crash to shore up equity in strategic firms? Those are just some of the ques-                Dipak Mondal, Manu Kaushik, Sumant Banerji
tions leaders the world over are struggling to answer.                                                      Associate Editor: Nidhi Singal,
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    Most have already made precautionary moves to block any misadventure.
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non-EU (read China) investors. France, Italy, and Spain followed with similar
rules. So did the UK, Australia, Canada – even the US.                                                                      photography
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triggered a notification to stock exchage regulator SEBI for surpassing 1 per cent
equity holding in one of India’s biggest and most respected housing finance com-                                                   art
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panies, HDFC – which also owns the largest private bank HDFC Bank – it natu-                                 Assistant Art Director: Raj Verma
rally set alarm bells ringing from SEBI, right up to the Ministry of Finance. PBoC                                           production
already owned 0.8 per cent of HDFC. As HDFC’s stock value crashed 32 per cent,                          Chief of Production: Harish aggarwal
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it had only acquired an additional 0.2 per cent, a move that would be considered                     Associate Chief Coordinator: Rajesh Verma
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tre moved in swiftly, amending FDI norms that mandate explicit government ap-                       General Managers: Upendra Singh (Bangalore)
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proval for FDI from contiguous countries. Since the rule already existed for Ban-
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gladesh and Pakistan, the aim was at none other than China. SEBI is doing its own
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                                                                                          (South), piyush Ranjan Das, Senior Sales Manager (East)
ground. Yet, this is just the beginning. Regulatory and a possible consumer back-
lash against Chinese investments, companies and products in India, coupled with
the coming face-off to present itself as an alternative to China for manufacturing,                   Vol. 29, No. 10, for the fortnight May 4-17, 2020.
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Clashing Tiger, Fuming Dragon - India Today Group
May 17, 2020                                        Cover by NilaNjaN das
                                          Volume 29, Number 10

                                                                                                                      No Exemption
                                                                                                                      from Pain
                                                                                                                      Pg. 30

                                                                                                                      Hunt for Magic
                                                                                                                      Potion
                                                                                                                      Pg. 36

                                                                                                                      Reinvention
                                                                                                                      Time
                                                                                                                      Pg. 42

                                                                                                                      Survival of the
                                                                                                                      Fittest
                                                                                                                      Pg. 48

                                                                                                                      The Not So
                                                                                                                      Happy Face of IT
                                                                                                                      Pg. 52

                                                                                                                      The Booby Trap
                                                                                                                      Pg. 56

                                                                                                                      Funding Disaster
                                                                                                                      Relief
                                                                                                                      Pg. 62

                                                                                                                      Uphill Battle
                                                                                                                      Pg. 66

                                                                                                                      Interview/
                                                                                                                      Nitin Gadkari,
                                                                                                                      Union Minister for
                                                                                                                      Road Transport
                                                                                                                      and Highways
                                                                                                                      Pg. 72
illustration by raj verMa

                                                                                                                               18

                                As INdIA tIGhteNs FdI Norms, ChINese FIrms ANd INvestmeNts mAy FACe
                                 reGulAtory ANd CoNsumer bACklAsh. the FrICtIoN betweeN AsIAN
                                 GIANts Could be the beGINNING oF AN AdversArIAl ChAPter IN trAde

                            4                                    Business Today 17 May 2020
Clashing Tiger, Fuming Dragon - India Today Group
14

                                                       Corporate

                                                 The Game Changer
                                               With both sides tight-lipped,
                                                the nuts and bolts of jio-
                                                 Facebook tie-up remain
                                                   shrouded in mystery

               6

          The Point

    A Full-blown Crisis
                                                                                Mark Zuckerberg,
The devastating impact of corona-                                                Ceo, Facebook
virus on the economy is becoming
  increasingly clear. Here is what
    high-frequency data show

               8
                                                              Mukesh ambani,               78
     New Investments                                             CMd, Ril
       Slip in FY20
      FY20 ended with new                                                              Network
 investments of `11.9 lakh crore;
   this is much lower than the                                                     Aditya Puri’s
     `13.1 lakh crore in FY19                                                     Second Innings
                                                                                HdFC Bank’s Aditya Puri,
                                                           74                   who is known for skillfully
                                                                                  optimising time, has
                                                                                “enjoyable plans” for his
               10                                     Management                     retirement life

                                                      No Full Stops
    Food Subsidy Falls;                          How india inc’s business
     Bad News for FCI                           continuity plans are being
  The Centre’s food subsidy bill                 overhauled to tide over
    falls 10 per cent in FY20                     the coronavirus crisis

           businesstoday.in

                     sTaY CoNNeCTed WiTH us oN
                www.facebook.com/BusinessToday@BT_india
                                                                                           82

                              An            Feature
                                                                               Best Advice I Ever Got
          From time to time, you will see pages titled “An Impact
          Feature” or “Advertorial” in Business Today. This is no
                                                                               “You are the custodian
          different from an advertisement and the magazine’s editorial          of the culture of the
          staff is not involved in its creation in any way.                        organisation”
                                                                                     Ramesh iyer

                                                17 May 2020 Business Today                                    5
Clashing Tiger, Fuming Dragon - India Today Group
peTrol,
                                                                                 DieSel
                                                                                 DemanD
                                                                                 SlumpS
                                                                                 î India's fuel
                                                                                 consumption slumped
                                                                                 over 66 per cent year-
                                                                                 on-year in April (till the

A FULL-BLOWN
                                                                                 10th of the month)
                                                                                 î Petrol sales fell 16.37
                                                                                 per cent to 2.16 million
                                                                                 tonnes in March; ATF
                                                                                 sales down 30 per cent

CRISIS
                                      The devastating impact of
                                      coronavirus on the economy is
                                      becoming increasingly clear. Here               ConSumpTion
                                                                                     (Million metric tonnes)
                                      is what high-frequency data shows
                                                                                 8
By Shivani Sharma                                                                7
Graphics by Tanmoy Chakraborty                                                                        High
                                                                                 6                   Speed
                                                                                                     Diesel
                                                                                 5

                                                                                 4
                                                                                                  Petrol
                                                                                 3

CoronaviruS
                                                                                 2

                                                                                 1          ATF
BiTeS:                                                                           0

unemploymenT
                                                                                     19-Apr            20-Mar

raTe TopS 26%
î The labour participation rate fell
to an all-time low of 35.4 per cent
in week ended April 19
î The employment rate also fell
to an all-time low of 27.7 per cent
during the week                                                                         foreign
î Labour participation during
March was 41.9 per cent. It was
                                                                                         Tourist
42.6 per cent in February and 42.7                                                      arrivals
per cent in March 2019.
                                                                                     Growth Hits
50                                                                                   record low
          Labour Participation Rate
                                                                                       Y-o-Y % change
40                                                                        25
              Employment Rate                                             20
30
                                                                          15

20                                                                        10

                                                                           5
             Unemployment Rate
10                                                                         0

                                                                          -10
 0
     7-Apr            Week        19-Apr                                  15
     2019             ended        2020                                         Feb 2015              Feb 2020

6    Source: Labour Ministry                                                    Source: Tourism Ministry
Clashing Tiger, Fuming Dragon - India Today Group
Bank CreDiT
GrowTH
fallS To 6.14%
îYear-on-year (y-o-y)
growth in bank credit
decelerated to 6.1% in
FY20 from 13.3% in FY19
îDeposit accretion
growth moderated to
7.9 per cent from 10 per
cent in FY19
îOutstanding bank
credit stood at `103.7
lakh crore on March 27.
Banks raised deposits of
`9.97 lakh crore in FY20
as against `11.4 lakh
crore in the previous
financial year

                                  Bank Credit
21.35

                                  Growth (%)
               17.84

                                                                 13.39
           13.53
           13.72

                                         10.69

                                                   9.54
        9.38

                                                 7.8

                                                                         6.1
FY 11
        FY 12
                FY 13
                        FY 14
                                 FY 15
                                         FY 16
                                                 FY 17
                                                         FY 18
                                                                 FY 19
                                                                         FY 20

                                                                                    Source:
                                                                                    RBI

 wholesale
 prices of
 essential
 Commodities
 rise Sharply
                                                                                                                                                                         4.82
                                                                                                                                                           4.52

  riCe                                                               wHeaT                                            SuGar                   milk
                                                                                            9.02
                                         7.03

                                                                                                                                                                  2.75
                                                                                                              30.96

                                                                                                                                             2.55
                   6.18

                                                                                     5.27
                            2.53

                                                                  3.36
                                                         4.2

                                                                                                                                                    0.02
                                                                                                                      4.94
        1.61

                                                                            -0.59

                                                                                                                                      2.22
                                                                                                                             -11.12
                                                                                                     -11.93
-2.84

                                                                                                                                                                                Wholesale Prices
                                                                                                                                                                                of Essential
                                                                                                                                                                                Commodities (%)
FY16

          FY17

                   FY18

                                FY19

                                         FY20

                                                          FY16

                                                                   FY17

                                                                             FY18

                                                                                     FY19

                                                                                              FY20

                                                                                                      FY16

                                                                                                              FY17

                                                                                                                      FY18

                                                                                                                             FY19

                                                                                                                                      FY20

                                                                                                                                             FY16

                                                                                                                                                    FY17

                                                                                                                                                           FY18

                                                                                                                                                                  FY19

                                                                                                                                                                         FY20

                                                                                                                                                                                Source:
                                                                                                                                                                                Mospi

                                                                                                17 May 2020 Business Today                                                                   7
Clashing Tiger, Fuming Dragon - India Today Group
The Point

  Borrowings                                                                aggregate state
  By states                                                              Borrowing calenDar (`Cr)

  rise sharply                                           16,269
                                                                                 april
                                                                                               26,100
                                                                                                                      april

  as economy                                                                     2019                                 2020

  shuts Down                                                            9,800

                                                                                    4,900
                                                                                                                13,900
                                                                                                                              11,100
 îWith revenue falling, states are likely                                   3,503
 to borrow `55,225 crore in April, against                                                                            4,125
 `34,472 crore in April last year, a spike
 of 60 per cent
 î The RBI has accounted for a 15 per                      1st    2nd       3rd      4th           1st        2nd      3rd      4th
 cent year-on-year rise in aggregate                      week    week     week     week          week        week    week     week
 borrowings by states to `1,27,205 crore
 in the first quarter of this year
                                                          Source: RBI

  New INvestmeNts                                                       sharp slowdowN
  slIp IN FY20                                                          IN project
 îFY20 ended with new investments of `11.9
 lakh crore; this is much lower than the `13.1
 lakh crore in FY19
                                                                        completIoNs too
                                                                        îProjects worth `76,400 crore were
 îSeptember and December quarters saw an                                completed in quarter ended March 31, 2020;
 improvement but new investments shrunk                                 `4 lakh crore worth of completions were
 again in the March quarter, probably due to the                        scheduled for the quarter
 shutdown
                                                                        îThe completions during FY20, at `4.1 lakh
 îOf the 431 new projects announced during                              crore, were 37 per cent lower than the `6.5
 the March quarter, 44 were in the power sector                         lakh crore in FY19

            new projects announceD                                                                  projects completeD
   10                                                                                     3
                         (`lakh crore)                                                                        (`lakh crore)
      8                                                                               2.5
                                                                                          2
      6
                                                                                         1.5
      4
                                                                                           1
      2                                                                               0.5
      0                                                                                   0
          Mar 2010 Quarter ended         Mar 2020                                              Mar 2010 Quarter ended Mar 2020

2,000                                                                               1,000
                 No of projects                                                                           No of projects
1,500                                                                                750

1,000                                                                                500

 500                                                                                 250

      0                                                                                   0
          Mar 2010 Quarter ended         Mar 2020                                              Mar 2010 Quarter ended Mar 2020
          Source: CMIE                                                                         Source: CMIE

  8                                                 Business Today 17 May 2020
Clashing Tiger, Fuming Dragon - India Today Group
Clashing Tiger, Fuming Dragon - India Today Group
The Point

                                                                                            Direct Benefit
        Food SubSidy                                                                        transfers fall
         FallS; bad                                                                         23% in fY20
        NewS For FCi
                                                                                            îThe Centre’s direct benefit transfers
                                                                                            (cash and kind) fell to `2.53 lakh crore in
                                                                                            FY20 from `3.3 lakh crore in FY19
                îThe Centre’s food subsidy bill
                   falls 10 per cent in FY20                                                îThis is partly due to reduction in
                                                                                            transfers under key schemes such as
      îThis means — just as in previous few                                                 MGNREGA and Pradhan Mantri Awas
       years — the Centre is transferring a                                                 Yojana-Gramin (PMAY-G)
         major part of this burden to FCI
      îFCI debt has been ballooning; it rose
      to `2.65 lakh crore in March 2019, up
        from `91,409 crore in March 2014

                      Fy19        Fy20          % yoy growTh

        -10.6                    20               31.4               31.4
                                                                             2,63,000
                                                                  2,59,900
     1,68,700

                                                                                                          Direct Benefit transfers to
                1,50,800

                                                                                                             major schemes in fY20

                                                                                                   PDS food                                      65,140
                                       79,900

                                                                                                   Fertiliser                            46,148
                              66,600

                                                                                                 MgNrEgA                        29,889
                                                         32,300
                                                24,600

                                                                                              PMAy gramin                 13,214
                                                                                                                                         (in `Crore)
                                                                                                  LPg-Pahal             9,624
                                                                                                          NSAP          7,225
      Food                   Fertiliser Petroleum                     Total
     subsidy                 subsidy     subsidy

                   Source: India Budget, CGA, Emkay Research
                                                                                                              Fy19                       Fy20
                                                                                                          3.3
                                                                                                          `                          `   2.53
                                                                                                              lakh                       lakh
                                                                                                              crore                      crore

                                                                                                  CASh           KiND             CASh        KiND
                                                                                                  2.14           1.16            1.35         1.18
                                                                                                                  Source: DBTBHARAT.GOV.IN

10                                                                           Business Today 17 May 2020
FOCUS
                                                                                                                                                           GIFTING
RR GIFTING: HALLMARK OF
TECHNOLOGY, QUALITY AND RANGE
                                                                                                                        is value for money and a smart way to lock and unlock!
                                           Mr Mukul Vashisht, is the first-generation                                   Could you share about your premium leather
                                           young entrepreneur in his family. An avid                                    products?
                                           adventure sports person, he has given vent                                   The premium leather gift items, is a niche segment
                                           to his creative persona by starting a fledgling                              of RR Gifting that caters to the high-end clientele.
                                           business of designing and developing gift                                    The gift products are designed indigenously by us or
                                                                                                                        customised as per the customer’s specifications. With
                                              products in 2007, which has made a                                        experience, we now confidently give suggestions to
                                               credible name for itself in the corporate                                customers and mostly they are appreciated resulting
                                                world. Passionate about his business,                                   in repeat customers, whose numbers are growing.
                                                  he believes that the ‘gifting’ industry                               Also, technology has advanced tremendously enabling
                                                   has great potential and this motivates                               us to explore different design options, saving time
                                                    him to explore wider to come up with                                and money, improving quality and service. View our
                                                                                                                        exclusive range of leather gift such as notebook covers,
                                                     unique gifting products. He talks                                  card holders, passport holder, chequebook and pass
                                                      about RR Gifting, its journey and                                 book holder, wallets and much more on our website
                                                      future innovative gift items.                                     www.rrgifting.in.
                                                                           Mukul Vashisht-PROPRIETOR                    Are you eyeing the international market?
                                                                                                                        Definitely. We have consolidated our market in India in
What made you choose developing gifts as a                   The gift choices vary from company to company and          metro cities such as Mumbai, Bengaluru, Hyderabad,
business option?                                             so the product portfolio is very diverse in a way. But,    Chennai, Kanpur, Goa etc., and are still expanding, so
I was very sure of setting up my own business                yes, we have a dedicated team of 30 staff including        now going global is on the cards. Probably in another
enterprise and that too which had a creative aspect          designers, product developers, website developers          two years we should be exporting RR gift products
to it as I am a connoisseur of innovative products           and data controllers, who give strength to our             to foreign countries. Some of our prestigious clients
having an artistic value to it, besides utility. So, the     objective. Since we have a full-fledged manpower           include leading brands such as Art Housing Finance,
gift developing business appealed to me. As it was           back-up with expertise in different departments            Apollo Spectra, Abbot, Bosch and Lomb, CPA Global,
not my family business, I started from scratch and           such as packaging and delivery as well, we have an         KIA Motors, Swatch, Subros, Titan, YKK India and
what followed was gathering extensive information            edge in ensuring quality product and timely delivery       Central Ministries of Defence, Commerce, Electronics,
about the business and hardwork. The rest as you say         irrespective of the size of the order. Shifting from the   etc. As we have ambitious expansion plans, we are
is history and destiny. I truly enjoy this business as its   present rented premises to company-owned property          looking for investors and welcoming them to grow
of my liking and am passionate about it.                     is definitely there in the pipeline, which we see as an    together.
What does RR stand for?                                      asset.                                                     The world in is the grip of the Covid -19
My business is named after my father’s elder brother         What is the latest product that RR has developed           pandemic. How is RR Gifting helping battle it?
Mr Raja Rajendra (Tauji), whom I consider to be my           and how popular do you envisage it to be?                  RR Gifting considers its bounded duty in contributing
mentor. He has also supported me financially when I          Today, life is on the fast track with technology taking    towards social cause. Under CSR initiative, we provide
wanted to self-start the business. I abide by his golden     the front seat driving our daily lives at the click        free of cost at least 10 sets of whatever products
words of What to produce? How to produce? For whom           of a button. RR Gifting has developed in-house, a          developed for any company for distribution to the
to produce? which has helped me tremendously to              smart digital lock which can be configured to one’s        needy. So now, we are developing Corona safety kits
remain focused, be proactive, be rational, as well as        mobile and can be easily operated doing away with          at a nominal cost of Rs 1000 plus GST depending on
anticipate market demand.                                    cumbersome keys, the reason that will make it popular.     the requirement. With every order 10 kits are given as
What is trending in the corporate gifting world              It is scheduled to be launched close to Independence       complimentary by RR Gifting as a gesture of solidarity
and how does RR Gifting meet the demand?                     Day i.e., 15th August, this year. The futuristic product   in the battle against Corona pandemic.

                                       R. R Solution Corporate Gifts & Novelties
                                            D- 24/396, Chattarpur hills, New Delhi - 110074 www.rrgifting.in
                                            rrsolution0@gmail.com Mukul Vashisht 9818867921, 8527399075
The Point

Cargo traffiC at india's
major ports up 1.4% during
apr 2019-feb 2020
îCargo traffic at India’s                 îTraffic of                                     îIron ore rose 36                                        îCoal plunged 10.8
major ports grew 1.4                      petroleum, oil &                                per cent to 50 million                                   per cent, fertiliser
per cent to 643 million                   lubricants rose 2.7                             tonnes and container                                     raw material (dry) 0.3
tonnes during April                       per cent to 216.9                               increased 2.1 per cent                                   per cent and other
2019-February 2020                        million tonnes                                  to 134.8 million tonnes                                  goods 5.6 per cent

                                          petroleum,oil
                total traffiC             & lubriCants                                           Coal                                                   sugar

      FY16             4.2                             4.5                                                         10.4            -19.4
      FY17                6.7                                  7.6               -5.2                                                                                               38
      FY18              4.9                                    7.7                                       2.4                                   -7.4
      FY19           2.8                       2.1                                                          6.2                                -8.7
     FY20*         1.4                          2.7                    -10.8                                                                                                         41.2

                           iron ore                                                     edible oil                                               foodgrains

      FY16       -21.5                                                                                          23.5                   -33.6
      FY17                                     187.7                   -12.7                                                                                                         86.6
      FY18                     16                                                                        16.7                          -29.9
      FY19         -14.1                                                  -6.4                                              -77.2
     FY20*                        35.96                                                     0.5                                                                           41.1
*Till February; Source: Ministry of Shipping

     gold                                                Quantity (tonnes)                                                                     Value ($mn)

     imports
                                                                                                                   53,830
                                               890.3

                                                               942.7

                                                                        820.8
                                                       776.9

                                                                                        776.3

                                                                                                775.4
                                                                                690.5

     î FY20 gold imports
                                                                                                                                      34,462

                                                                                                                                                                 33,648

                                                                                                                                                                           32,897
                                                                                                                             28,705

                                                                                                                                               31,768

     are estimated at 559.6
                                                                                                        559.6

                                                                                                                                                                                    27,000
                                                                                                                                                        27,515

     tonnes. In FY 19, the
     figure was 775.4 tonnes
     î This is the lowest
     since FY13
     î The March 2020
     quarter is expected to
     be no different, with
     estimated demand
     of only 120 tonnes
                                               FY13

                                                        FY14

                                                                FY15

                                                                        FY16

                                                                                FY17

                                                                                        FY18

                                                                                                FY19

                                                                                                        FY20

                                                                                                                   FY13

                                                                                                                            FY14

                                                                                                                                      FY15

                                                                                                                                               FY16

                                                                                                                                                        FY17

                                                                                                                                                                 FY18

                                                                                                                                                                          FY19

                                                                                                                                                                                    FY20

     amid the nationwide
     lockdown
                                                                                                                                             Source : Commerce ministry

12                                                             Business Today 17 May 2020
produCtion of Consumer
         durables (april – feb)
       APR-FEB FY19    APR-FEB FY20      NO. OF uNiTS ('000)            % GROwTh

Air- conditioners           2,475                                            18
                            2,923
Telephones
& mobile
                                          54,902                             17
                                           64,163
instruments
                            1,974                                            10
Electric cooking            2,175
appliances
                                    22,442                                   4.4
Fans                                23,429

Refrigerators                 12,385                                         -1
                              12,274
washing
& laundry                    5,929                                           -5
Machines                     5,634
                                                               4,52,288      -13
incandescent                                                3,94,526
lamps
                                                     1,36,589                -20
Fluorescent                                      1,08,958
tubes & CFLs
                             3,055                                           -35
TV Sets                     1,983

Electric filament           482                                              -45
type lamps                  267                 Source : CARE Ratings

The Big                                          nifty 50                             s&p bse sensex

STock
                                                                              7.8
                                  7.7

                                                                                               3.8
                                                                                               3.6
                                                       4.1
                                                       3.5

                                                      0.9

                                                                                    0.9
                                                      1.5

                                                                                              1.7
                                        1.5

                                                                                    1.7
                                        1.1

                                                                                             1.1

MarkeT
                                                  -1.1

                                                                                       -0.4
                                                                                       -0.8
                                                -0.9

                                                 -1.7

                                                                                                          -1.3

craSh
                                                                                      -4.9
                                               -5.7

                                                                                                         -6
                                             -6.4

                                              Returns (%)                                  Returns (%)
îPanic selling due to
                                  19.4 -23.2

                                                                                       -23.1

Covid-19 pandemic
shaved off 23 per cent
                                      29.5
                                      29.3

                                                                                   28.5

                                                                                  28.4
                                     28.3

                                                                                  26.6
                                     26.4

                                     26.4
                                     28.1

                                                                                  26.3
                                     27.4

                                     27.4
                                     27.3

                                                                                  27.2
                                    25.5

                                                                                 24.5

market cap of top 50
                                      29
                                      29

                                                                                   29
                                                                                   29

                                                                                23.2
                                                                                  28

                                                                                  27

                                                                                 26

companies listed on
                                                                              17.8

the National Stock
Exchange within a
single month                                      P/E (Times)                             P/E (Times)
îThis was the largest
loss in a single month
                                  Mar-19
                                   Apr-19
                                  May-19
                                   Jun-19
                                    Jul-19
                                  Aug-19
                                  Sep-19
                                  Oct-19
                                  Nov-19
                                  Dec-19
                                  Jan-20
                                  Feb-20
                                  Mar-20

                                                                              Mar-19
                                                                               Apr-19
                                                                              May-19
                                                                               Jun-19
                                                                                Jul-19
                                                                              Aug-19
                                                                              Sep-19
                                                                              Oct-19
                                                                              Nov-19
                                                                              Dec-19
                                                                              Jan-20
                                                                              Feb-20
                                                                              Mar-20

since the global
liquidity crisis of 2008.

                                              17 May 2020 Business Today                                         13
The Game
Changer
With both sides
tight-lipped, the
nuts and bolts of
Jio-Facebook tie-up
remain shrouded
in mystery
By manu kaushik

M
                       onths before Reliance Industries                                        Mukesh Ambani,
                       announced that Facebook would buy                                          CMD, RIL
                       a 9.99 per cent stake in Jio Platforms
                       — the holding company of its digital
                       businesses — for `43,574-crore, both                                  PhotograPh by bandeeP singh

                       companies were at loggerheads. In
January last year, at the 9th Vibrant Gujarat Summit,
Mukesh Ambani, Chairman of Reliance Industries (RIL),               tails are still being worked upon.
advocated protecting India’s data from global corpora-                  Facebook’s investment could bring RIL’s debt down at a
tions. In September, Facebook’s Global Affairs VP, Nicho-           time when cash conservation has become critical for lever-
las Clegg, countered that asking India to allow free flow of        aged entities. As per Hong Kong-based CLSA, RIL’s consoli-
data across borders.                                                dated net debt and other liabilities were `2.35 lakh crore in
    Seven months later, Ambani has joined hands with                2019/20, down marginally from `2.40 lakh crore in 2018/19.
Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg to collaborate on the vast data          “Cash infusion from this deal and closure of `7,000 crore
both collect in their ventures. So, what could have prompt-         stake sale to BP in the oil marketing JV should mean cash
ed both billionaires to come together?                              infusion of over `50,000 crore and bring down net debt,”
    Analysts call it a “marriage of convenience” – where            says a CLSA report. Even as the modalities of the deal are
each partner brings something to the table that the other           being thrashed out, the industry stays circumspect about
lacks. With both sides tight-lipped about the deal, the nuts        how things will move forward from here on.
and bolts of the tie-up are shrouded in mystery. Analysts               While announcing the partnership, RIL said its “focus
believe barring the investment announcement, most de-               will be India’s 60 million micro, small and medium busi-

14                                                 Business Today 17 May 2020
The          February 2018: Face-
                                                                                                       book-owned messaging
                                                                                       Making          platform WhatsApp beta-
                                                                                        of the         launches its payments
                                                                                         Deal          service WhatsApp Pay

                                                                                                       July 2018: Mukesh Am-
                                                                                                       bani forays into new com-
                                                                                                       merce; calls it RIL’s next
                                                                                                       biggest growth engine

                                                                                                       August 2019: At RIL’s
                                                                                                       42nd AGM, Ambani says
                                                                                                       he intents to register 30
                                                                                                       million kirana stores

                                                                                                       December 2019: Jio
                                                                                                       Platforms reportedly
                                                                                                       does a soft launch of
                                                                                                       grocery platform JioMart
                                                                                                       in Navi Mumbai, Thane
                                                                                                       and Kalyan

                                                                                                       February 2020: What-
                                                                                                       sApp gets NPCI approval
                                                                                                       to roll out its payments
                                                                                                       service

                                                                                                       April 2020: Jio Platforms
                                                                                                       receive `43,574-crore
                                                                                                       funding from Facebook
                                   Mark Zuckerberg,                                                    for 9.99 per cent stake;
                                    CEO, Facebook                                                      WhatsApp and Jio Plat-
                                                                                                       forms sign deal to grow
                                                                                                       RIL’s new commerce
                                                                                                       business

nesses, 120 million farmers, 30 million small merchants                buying 9.99 per cent stake in Jio Platforms. A part of the
and millions of small and medium enterprises in the infor-             proceeds (`15,000 crore) will be retained in the company
mal sector, in addition to empowering people seeking vari-             and the rest (over `28,000 crore) will be used to redeem
ous digital services.” It’s unclear how far RIL has come in            OCPS (optionally convertible preference shares) of RIL. A
connecting these small merchants and businesses with its               separate partnership has been signed between Facebook-
new commerce platform.                                                 owned WhatsApp, Reliance Retail and Jio Platforms to
    Last December, Jio Platforms reportedly did a soft                 grow RIL’s new commerce business using WhatsApp.
launch of grocery platform JioMart in Navi Mumbai, Thane                   This investment fits in with Ambani’s new commerce
and Kalyan. Hence, it’s safe to assume RIL’s new commerce              project launched two years ago at RIL’s 41st AGM. What
journey has just begun, and it will have to tread a long way           exactly is new commerce? One of the biggest pieces of Reli-
before potential benefits can be realised.                             ance Retail’s new commerce project is JioMart, which plans
    Nevertheless, Ambani stunned the world by clinching                to join hands with millions of kirana stores across India,
the deal in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak. He not             and bring them on its platform. By integrating offline kira-
only pulled off the largest FDI in India’s tech sector, but also       nas with WhatsApp, local retailers can have a wider reach
became Asia’s richest person.                                          and greater display on Jio’s platform.
    Jio Platforms, the RIL subsidiary in which Facebook has                “New commerce is going to be our e-commerce of-
invested, saw its enterprise value soar to `4.62 lakh crore.           fering. We will enable kiranas to become full-fledged
Last December, brokerage Axis Capital estimated that Jio’s             e-commerce companies. Customers would go to their
enterprise value will touch `4.64 lakh crore in 2023/24. Jio           WhatsApp and access JioMart where they can find the ki-
Platforms is a larger entity that houses all digital ventures          ranas. The idea is to digitise the whole supply chain that’s
of RIL – the Jio suite of apps, digital investments (KAI-OS,           informal right now,” says a RIL source.
Haptik) and big data, AI and IoT capabilities. Jio remains                 In the long term, the plan is to cover more segments un-
the crown jewel in the bouquet of those investments.                   der new commerce. The expansion of JioMart vertical, (in-
    The deal is divided into two parts. First, Facebook is             tegrated) payments system of WhatsApp, credit facilities

                                                      17 May 2020 Business Today                                                15
Corporate – Jio-FB

                                   What                     What
        Size of                 facebook iS              facebook iS               What ril iS                 What ril iS
       the deal                  bringing                  getting                 bringing                     getting

  `43,574                          400                      388                        30                       `4.62
         crore                     Million                  Million                   Million                   lakh crore
 For 9.9 per cent stake            WhatsApp               Number of Jio             Kirana stores          Enterprise value of RIL's
    in Jio Platforms                users                subs whose data                                   subsidiary Jio Platforms
                                                         FB can monetise                                     after FB investment

and other services would enable RIL to chal-               gains all                   hold in India. India is home to some of
lenge e-commerce players like Amazon and                    the Way                    Facebook’s most thriving communities
Flipkart. “This will help RIL create a strong                                          on WhatsApp, Facebook and Instagram.
rival to online e-commerce giants like Ama-                                            In the fourth quarter of 2019, the family of
zon and strengthen its leadership in Indian         Jio Platforms gets valued          Facebook apps saw 2.89 billion monthly us-
retail,” says an Axis Capital report.               among the top five listed          ers globally, up 9 per cent over the same pe-
    The timing of the deal is great as RIL’s oil      companies in India by            riod last year. As one of the largest consumer
                                                  market cap. Ambani is now
refining and petrochemicals revenues have                   Asia's richest
                                                                                       economies outside the US, India has been at
taken a hit. The historic fall in crude prices                                         the forefront of Facebook’s target markets.
has upended fundamentals of RIL’s oil and            While WhatsApp brings             Since China is closed for foreign entities,
gas business. The mega-deal with Saudi            scale and reach of 400-mn            penetrating deeper into the Indian market
Aramco last year also risks being called off          users, RIL offers a vast         becomes more important. RIL’s under-
after government reportedly asked a court         database of wireless users,          standing of the domestic market, particular-
                                                   and understanding of the
to restrain the $15-billion deal. “While                                               ly the regulatory side, could bring Facebook
                                                            local market
the Saudi Aramco due diligence is ongo-                                                closer to Indians.
ing, clearly with Covid-19 disruptions, the        For RIL, the deal is crucial            Facebook has a chequered history in
transaction would likely get pushed out.               as major businesses             India. In 2016, it suffered a big setback over
The key investor concern is whether the               – petrochemicals and             the backlash from net-neutrality activists
collapse in crude would lead to deal cancel-          oil refinery – are under         over its Free Basics programme. What-
                                                       pressure due to the
lation,” says a J.P. Morgan report.                                                    sApp also struggled to make headway in
                                                         Covid-19 outbreak
    There are two clear upsides for Facebook.                                          the Indian payments market. Despite beta-
First, it can monetise Jio’s subscriber data.       WhatsApp will be a super
                                                                                       launching payments service WhatsApp
Though there are rising concerns over users’          app for payments and             Pay in February 2018, it got approval from
data privacy and squeezing of online adver-          enable users to transact          NPCI (National Payments Corporation
tising, India is yet to finalise the personal            with local kiranas            of India) for roll out just two months ago.
data protection law. Without such a law,                                               Meanwhile, others like Google Pay, Ama-
Facebook can reportedly leverage Jio users’ data without                zon Pay, and PhonePe have taken a lead. With the integra-
any regulatory restrictions.                                            tion of WhatsApp Pay and JioMart on a large scale, Face-
    “Facebook is largely dependent on ad revenues. Mon-                 book could bridge some of that gap.
etising WhatsApp has been tough for them. With this tie-                   An RIL-Facebook partnership was in the works for a
up, they would have greater access to the digital life of an            while, but the coronavirus havoc accelerated its closure.
additional 388 million users. The privacy concern stems                 How? With the coronavirus onset, hyperlocal retail has
from there. Facebook’s history has been marred with con-                become extremely popular. “The key expectation from in-
troversies and instances of how data was used by market-                vestors is if WhatsApp becomes the new all-in Super App
ers for political campaigning. With this, they would fur-               and allows for Jio and [Reliance] Retail to foray into various
ther monopolise the market to attract more advertisers.                 commerce initiatives leveraging WhatsApp as the Super
Everything boils down to ads,” says Neil Shah, VP (Re-                  App,” says the JP Morgan report.
search) at Counterpoint Research.
    With RIL on its side, Facebook can gain a deeper foot-                                                              @manukaushik

16                                                  Business Today 17 May 2020
FOCUS
                                                                                                                       STOCK MARKET

CAUTION !!! INDIAN STOCK MARKET 2020
AGAIN STARTED FACING A BIG CRASH. VERY
SOON NIFTY WILL HIT MINIMUM 5000 LEVEL.

Caution !!! Indian stock market 2020 again started facing a big crash.
Very soon Nifty will hit minimum 5000 level in the upcoming days.

    LAKSHMI NARAYANAN SUNDARAM
          Research Analyst (SEBI Certified)

T
      his crash is going to be one of the biggest
      crash registered in the history of Indian
      stock market. We can see a sharp fall          would be similar to the previous crash, that our    get affected badly. So investors and Traders of
in this crash. In this crash Nifty will fall up to   Indian stock market got corrected nearly 40%        our Indian stock market must be careful to deal
46% from the recent level. It is going to be the     from life high in the month of March 2020.          with this Crash said by RESEARCH ANALYST Mr.
second consecutive crash in the year 2020 which      During the fall investors and Traders Wealth will   LAKSHMI NARAYANAN SUNDARAM.
cover story
                                       fdi policy

      CHECK
      ON THE
     DRAGON

18    Business Today 17 May 2020
It
                                                              all started with a seemingly innocuous
                                                              transaction on April 12 when state-owned Peo-
                                                              ple’s Bank of China (PBoC) bought an addition-
                                                              al 0.2 per cent stake in HDFC Ltd., India’s larg-
As India tightens FDI norms,                                  est housing finance company. Added to PBoC’s
Chinese firms and investments                                 existing 0.8 per cent stake, this took the Chi-
may face regulatory and consumer                              nese bank’s equity past 1 per cent — triggering
                                                              a notification to stock exchange regulator, the
backlash. The friction between                                Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi).
Asian giants could be the beginning                               A registered foreign institutional investor
of an adversarial chapter in trade                            (FII) buying a stake in HDFC is perfectly legal.
                                                              It was also a smart bargain. Stock markets in
By sumant Banerji, rukmini rao                                the world had been topsy-turvy and till that day
and niti kiran                                                HDFC Ltd. had seen 32 per cent erosion in mar-
illustration By raj verma
                                                              ket cap since the market crash triggered by the
                                                              spread of coronavirus.

                                 17 May 2020 Business Today                                                 19
cover story
fdi policy                                     The Maze                                           $1.81
                                              Of Chinese                                             bIllION
                                                                                         chinese investment
                                                Inflows                                 over the last five years
    Yet, the transaction rang alarm           Into India…                            494.75
                                                                                     2014-15
bells at Sebi coming, as it did, amid al-
                                                                                                              350.22

                                                      $2.34
legations of Chinese firms exploiting                                                                         2017-18
market crash to corner stakes in stra-                                                   461.4
                                                                                        2015-16
tegic firms of vulnerable economies.                    bIllION
The market regulator played safe and              china investment                                   277.25
                                                   into India is just                                2016-17           229.01
promptly shot off a missive to the fi-                                                                                 2018-19
nance ministry seeking guidance.                          0.5%
                                                  of total FDI in two                All figures in $ million; All figures are FDI
It asked if such transactions needed                   decades                               equity inflows from China
special attention.
    In Delhi, its chain reaction contin-
ues to unravel till this day. Taking note
of the threat posed by Chinese firms
to companies in India that may be
vulnerable due to economic stagna-
                                                  1                     China is 18th Largest
tion because of coronavirus, on April
                                                                          FDI Contributor
                                              Mauritius
                                                                           (Apr 2000-Dec 2019)
17, the commerce ministry’s Depart-           $141.9
ment for Promotion of Industry and            billion
Internal Trade (DPIIT) amended for-
eign direct investment (FDI) guide-
lines to apply curbs on investments              2                  3            4                   5                   6
from China. Aimed at preventing any
opportunistic takeover from across           Singapore           Japan      netherlands             USA                  UK
the border, any fresh FDI from China         $94.65           $33.1           $30.9            $28.35               $27.94
now requires a specific nod from the          billion         billion         billion            billion             billion
government.
    Taking a cue, Sebi wrote to custo-
dians the very next day, seeking de-
tails of foreign portfolio investments           7                  8            9                   10                 18
(FPIs) from China, Hong Kong and
11 other Asian countries. While there         Germany          Cyprus          France               UAE               China
are no restrictions on Chinese FPIs          $12.07          $10.10           $7.10              $6.91              $2.34
                                              billion         billion         billion            billion            billion
investing in Indian companies yet,
Sebi specifically wants custodians to                                                                              Source: DIPP
determine the level of control these
investors exercise.
    Even though investments – FDI,
FII or FPI – from China have not been                   $4.2                                             $8
                                                          bIllION                                     bIllION
blocked yet, this has not gone down
                                                that’s because much of                      Amount china claims it
well with China. The Chinese Em-                the chinese investment                         has invested in
bassy in Delhi, in an angry response,            comes via singapore                              India till
demanded that India revise the policy,          (above) and Hong Kong                         December 2019
calling it ‘discriminatory’ and in ‘vio-
lation of WTO’ rules.
    “The impact of the policy on
Chinese investors is clear. The addi-                   $3.9                                         $26
                                                          bIllION                                     bIllION
tional barriers set by the Indian side
                                                estimated investment by                      total investment by
for investors from specific countries               chinese firms in                       china in India, including
violate the WTO’s principle of non-             India’s start-up economy                    ongoing and planned
discrimination, and goes against the                      in 2019                           ones, as estimated by
                                                                                                  Brookings
general trend of liberalisation and
facilitation of trade and investment.

20                                          Business Today 17 May 2020
Equity                   China Not Among Top
8,27,258
7,82,031

                                              10 FPI Investors
                   debt
41,853
3,374

                   Hybrid
                   Total
                                                       Asset Under Custody (` crore)

                                                                                                                           4,00,834
                                                                                                                           3,28,853
                                                                                                                           69,714
                                                                                                                           2,268
           2,48,653

           2,83,487

                       2,30,497

                                  1,39,593
                       1,79,857
           34,718

                                  2,27,831
                       50,265

                                  82,070
                                  6,168

                                               1,20,915
           116

                                               1,17,951
                       375

                                                            93,544

                                                                         92,769
                                                            87,999

                                                                                       62,995
                                               2,408

                                                                         16,298
                                                                         76,274

                                                                                       82,827

                                                                                                               22,964
                                                                                       19,785

                                                                                                    13,933

                                                                                                               42,149
                                                                                                    65,144

                                                                                                               65,116
                                                            5,413

                                                                                                    51,211
                                               555

                                                                         196
                                                            132

                                                                                       46

                                                                                                    0

                                                                                                               3
  USA      Mauritius    luxem-    Singapore      United       ireland      Canada        Japan       norway      nether-    other
                         bourg                  Kingdom                                                           lands

                                    Source: NSDL; FPI AUC data country-wise (top 10 countries) by March 2020

                                        What Tighter FdI Norms Mean

    Greater scrutiny      Investors look-        Companies with           Start-ups like           Throttling          Impacts foreign
      of companies           ing to exit           existing Chi-             Paytm, big-              investments        entities with
      from China             from compa-           nese inves-               basket, with             from China is      subsidiaries
      looking to in-         nies will             tors may find             big Chinese              another blow       in india that
      vest directly          face greater          it difficult to           holdings, will           to overall         are looking at
      in india               due diligence         raise fresh               find it tough            start-up fund-     raising funds
                                                   funds                     to raise funds           ing in india       offshore

    More importantly, they do not conform to the consensus                   is widely expected to follow DPIIT), even Chinese con-
    of G20 leaders and trade ministers to realise a free, fair,              sumer firms such as MG Motors, Xiaomi, Lenovo, Oppo
    non-discriminatory, transparent, predictable and stable                  and Vivo are bracing for a possible consumer backlash
    trade and investment environment, and to keep our mar-                   when the lockdown is lifted. Greater scrutiny of Chi-
    kets open,” said Chinese embassy spokesperson counsel-                   nese investments will have far-reaching consequences
    lor Ji Rong. “Companies make choices based on market                     including, but not restricted to, the Indian start-up eco-
    principles. We hope India would revise relevant discrimi-                system that is flush with capital from across the border.
    natory practices, treat investments from different coun-                 Chinese investors pumped in an estimated $4 billion
    tries equally, and foster an open, fair and equitable busi-              into Indian startups in 2019 alone. And as India actively
    ness environment.”                                                       woos investments from firms looking for alternatives
        India remains unmoved and combative. “It does not                    to China, it will have to combat the fuming dragon more
    violate any WTO guideline in any way. We are well within                 often.
    our rights to formulate or tweak any policy. Just to be                     “China’s FDI in India remains quite small, so the re-
    clear, we are not blocking any investment, only making                   cent restrictions are not going to materially change the
    sure that the intent behind it is positive. What is wrong                picture. The purpose is to prevent Chinese state-owned
    with that?” says a senior commerce ministry official.                    companies from opportunistically buying stock of In-
        Shots fired, the die has been cast. But this may be                  dian companies that are currently facing a downturn in
    just the beginning of an adversarial relationship with                   their stock price,” says geo-strategist Brahma Chellaney.
    China that will require deft economic and geopolitical                      With global recession staring in the face, the friction
    manoeuvring. While regulators tighten the noose (Sebi                    between the two Asian economic giants is only expected

                                                        17 May 2020 Business Today                                                    21
cover story
fdi policy
                                             “India is going to win on its merit and
                                                 does not need China to fail for it to
                                              succeed. The cost-quality balance of
to increase.                                  engineering products coming out of
                                             India is superior to that of China. That
Opportunistic Raids on Firms?                   is why Triumph and KTM have allied
The pandemic is set to push the world        with us while a company like BMW has
economy into its worst recession                                     allied with TVS"
since the 1930s Great Depression.                             Rajiv Bajaj, MD, Bajaj Auto Ltd
While the world economy is projected
to shrink at least 3 per cent in 2020,
the International Monetary Fund
(IMF) believes India’s economy will
grow 1.9 per cent. The impact of the
slowdown on companies would be
dramatic. So, many could lose value in                                        “We need to be extremely watchful
stock markets, making them vulnera-                                           of Chinese moves, including its
ble to takeovers. Since China, besides                                        investment instruments, and its
India, is the only other large economy                                        presence in ASEAN countries”
expected to grow its GDP in FY21, it
is feared that state-owned Chinese                                            Abhyuday Jindal, MD, Jindal Stainless
firms may make opportunistic pur-
chases here. “We need to be extremely
watchful of Chinese moves, including
its investment instruments, and its
presence in ASEAN countries,” says
Abhyuday Jindal, Managing Director,
Jindal Stainless, India’s largest stain-         “China has spoken with its actions.
less steel company.                                History will give its objective and
                                                     impartial verdict. No one could
But is it Realistic?                               discredit or distort these facts or
China does not figure among the Top              truths. To defeat the virus, mankind
10 FDI or Top 10 FPI investors in In-              needs to choose confidence over
dia. Official FDI figures would show                        panic, unity over division,
at first glance that the DPIIT curbs                cooperation over scapegoating”
appear to be a case of much ado about
nothing. Between 2000 and 2019,                   Sun Weidong, Chinese Ambassador to India
Chinese FDI into India barely added
up to $2.3 billion, Commerce Min-
ister Piyush Goyal told Parliament.
That is barely half a per cent of all
FDI during the period. The Chinese
government inflates this to $8 billion
but even that is under 2 per cent of total FDI.                   lion during this period. Even the Centre is grappling with
    However, these numbers do not give the full picture.          exact China-specific FDI via these routes. Jidesh Kumar,
The Centre is worried because these benign numbers                Managing Partner , King Stubb & Kasiva, an M&A fo-
could be misleading. A significant chunk of Chinese               cused law firm, says, “Usually, investments in India from
investments come through destinations such as Hong                border states will be structured by creating SPVs in Hong
Kong and Singapore. India’s largest smartphone manu-              Kong, Singapore, Mauritius, the Netherlands or other ju-
facturer, Xiaomi, for example, has routed its `3,500 crore        risdictions to avail tax-treaty benefits under the respec-
investment in India through its subsidiary in Singapore.          tive double taxation avoidance agreements (executed by
Overall FDI from Singapore has been $94.6 billion in the          India with these countries).” The biggest Chinese invest-
last two decades, accounting for 20 per cent of all FDI           ments have come in the technology sector. Players like
into India. This makes Singapore the 2nd-largest source           Tencent and Alibaba invested in Indian tech start-ups
of FDI into India. Hong Kong pumped in another $4.2 bil-          such as Udaan, Delhivery, Swiggy and BigBasket in 2019.

22                                              Business Today 17 May 2020
Companies With Significant Investments From China

 Company                         FPI Investor                             % Share        Company*      FDI            Indian Firm

 Avanti Feeds                    Thai Union Asia Invst. Holding             8.77         tsingshan       $ 3 bn        Chromeni
                                                                                         Holding                         Steel
 Kingfa sc. & tech. (India)      Hongkong Victory Invst. Co.                6.32
                                                                                         Xinxing       $ 1.25 bn     Xindia Steels
                                 HSBC Pooled Investment Fund -                           Group
 Glenmark Pharma                                                            3.29
                                 HSBC Pooled Asia PAC
                                                                                                                     Vivo, Oppo,
                                                                                         BBK            $ 1.1 bn     Realme, One
 Kiri Industries                 Moving Limited                             2.08         electronics                  Plus, IQOO
 Gandhi special tubes            Pinebridge India Equity Fund               1.25
                                                                                         Fosun         $ 1.09 bn     Gland Pharma
 HDFc Ltd                        People's Bank of China                     1.01
                                                                                         Haier         $ 528 mn     Haier Appliances
                                                                                         Group                            India
                        Holdings based on information with CMIE's Prowess database;
                         BSE-listed companies covered; FPIs from both Hong Kong &        Xiaomi        $ 504 mn       Xiaomi India
                                                                  China (as per Sebi)
                                                                                            * These are announced investments

                                                                                        Biggest Start-ups Involving
                                                                                                 Chinese Investors
                                                                                                                    Company
                                                                                                                  Amount*
                                                                                                                      Investors

             PayTM                         Ola                   OYO Rooms                 Snapdeal                BYJU’S

         $3.53                       $3.28                         $3.2                    $1.8                    $1.47
             BIllIOn                     BIllIOn                     BIllIOn                BIllIOn                BIllIOn
           Ant Financial,            Tencent, Didi              Didi, Huazhuhui,          Alibaba Group,      Tencent, General
          Alibaba, Alibaba          Chuxing, China-             SoftBank Vision          Blackrock, Nexus      Atlantic, Aarin
         Group, Softbank           Eurasia Economic              Fund, Airbnb,           Venture Partners,       Capital, CPP
            Vision Fund,             Cooperation                  A91 Partners          Temasek, Foxconn         Investment
       T. Rowe Price, Gojek        Fund, Mirae Asset,              and others             Electronics and       Board, Prosus
             and others             SoftBank Group                                            others              and others
                                      and others

                                                     *Total funding; Source: Tracxn

The non-tech FDI is sparse.                                                 and reasonable.”
   Even so, just looking at the size of the FDI would be                        But the threat is limited here as well. Besides HDFC
missing the woods for the trees. The other concern which                    Ltd, there are only five other companies that have re-
prompted the government to put these investments un-                        ceived significant FPI investments from China or Hong
der the scanner is Chinese firms using lower valuations                     Kong. Of these, Hong Kong-based Thai Union Asia In-
to strike lucrative deals via the FPI route. “The revision                  vestment Holding Ltd has the largest stake – 8.77 per
of FDI policy is useful for indigenous entrepreneurs and                    cent — in shrimp exporting firm Avanti Feeds, while
businesses. It will give a reprieve to businesses that are                  HSBC Pooled Investment Fund has a 3.29 per cent stake
financially fragile on account of the great lockdown,”                      in pharma major Glenmark Pharmaceuticals and Hong
says Cyril Shroff, Managing Partner, Cyril Amarchand                        Kong Victory Investment Co has a 6.32 per cent stake in
Mangaldas. “This could ensure that the valuations at                        Kingfa Science and Technology (See Companies With Sig-
which Indian businesses receive investments are fair                        nificant Investment From China)

                                                      17 May 2020 Business Today                                                     23
cover story                                                                     India in Sync
fdi policy                                                                      With World
                                                                                AuStRAlIA: Tightened rules
                                                                                  on foreign takeovers fearing
                                                                                  strategic assets could be sold
                                                                                  cheaply due to the coronavirus
    While it is purportedly aimed at preventing take-                             crisis. Has mandated scrutiny
overs, the impact of the change in guidelines could be                            of every single deal regardless
widespread. According to law firm Shardul Amarchand                               of value
Mangaldas, the changes would impact existing Chinese
firms looking to invest more capital, investments from                          ItAly: It expanded the Golden
                                                                                   Powers Law, meant to restrict
China for greenfield projects as also foreign entities
                                                                                   foreign investments in sensitive
with subsidiaries in India looking to raise capital from                           areas, to include a large num-
overseas.                                                                          ber of other sectors. Curbed
    India is not alone in trying to protect its companies                          foreign takeovers in a range
from a potential Chinese invasion either. Many European                            of sectors
countries, including Italy, Spain, Germany and France,
besides Australia, have recently put similar curbs on op-                       GeRmAny: Europe’s biggest
                                                                                  economy approved measures
portunistic investments from China (See India in Sync                             which applied to takeover bids
with the World).                                                                  from the United States
    “Hostile takeovers are not a country-specific risk and                        and enterprises outside the
can happen from anywhere in this time of crisis when                              European Union
valuations of companies are down. We need to take
precautions from everywhere. China carries a higher                             SpAIn: Issued Royal Decree
                                                                                  suspending the regime on FDI
risk because of its political setup which is considered                           deregulation indefinitely. It ne-
to be non-transparent,” says Gopal Krishna Agarwal,                               cessitates prior government ap-
National Spokesperson (Economic Affairs), Bharatiya                               proval for investors outside EU
Janata Party. “India cannot have the luxury of not hav-                           looking at acquiring more than
ing discretion. The financial position will be very criti-                        10 per cent in a local company
cal in the immediate aftermath of Covid and we should
                                                                                CAnAdA: Tightened foreign
not be in a position where we expose our vulnerabilities
                                                                                  investment rules, scrutinising
to China,” says Harsh Pant, Director, Studies and Head,                           investments in companies re-
Strategic Studies Program, Observer Research Founda-                              lated to public health or critical
tion. “China has exposed itself with this crisis and shown                        supply chains, and investments
its aggressiveness. The world, with India included in it, is                      by state-owned companies
                                                                                  or investors with close ties to
wary of it.”
                                                                                  foreign governments
    At the same time, too much regulation could also
prove to be counter-productive. As a growing economy,                           euRopeAn unIon: Was among
India needs investments in infrastructure and labour                              the first to tighten foreign in-
intensive sectors and with the world economy headed                               vestment rules. The aim was to
towards a recession, China could be one of the few major                          discourage “bargain hunting”
                                                                                  by China.
economies bucking the trend and willing to spend. “Chi-
na’s cumulative investments in India are far more than
                                                                                uK: The UK government screens
the total investments of India’s other bordering coun-                            acquisitions in military, dual-
tries. Our investments have driven the development of                             use, computing hardware and
India’s industries such as mobile phone, household elec-                          quantum technology sectors
trical appliances, infrastructure and automobile, creat-
ing a large number of jobs in India, and promoting mutu-                        uSA: The Committee on Foreign
ally beneficial and win-win cooperation,” Ji Rong argues.                         Investments in the US is now
                                                                                  playing an active role in
“Where companies choose to invest and operate depends                             screening potential takeovers
on the country’s economic fundamentals and business                               on national security grounds
environment. Facing the economic downturn caused
by Covid-19, countries should work together to create a                         JApAn: $2.2 billion fund to help
favourable investment environment to speed up the re-                             Japanese companies shift pro-
sumption of companies’ production and operation.”                                 duction out of China
    Agarwal of the BJP agrees, adding India need not fol-                          Map not to scale
low the path taken by others but chart its own course, as
its reality is different. “We need not get entangled in any

24                                                 Business Today 17 May 2020
“The revision of FDI policy is
                                useful for indigenous entrepreneurs
                                and businesses. It will give a reprieve
                                to businesses that are financially                  use 'Swadeshi' and buy local products
                                                                                    in order to give impetus to local pro-
                                fragile on account of the
                                                                                    duce and generate employment in the
                                great lockdown”
                                                                                    country," Prime Minister Narendra
                                 Cyril Shroff, Managing Partner,                    Modi said in December 2019 in his reg-
                                 Cyril Amarchand Mangaldas                          ular radio programme Mann ki Baat.
                                                                                        A call to buy made in India goods
                                                                                    from none other than the prime min-
                                                                                    ister himself is bound to sway con-
                                                                                    sumer mindset, given his popularity.
                                                                                    The bad press China has been receiv-
        “MG is a quintessential British                                             ing across the globe, with criticism of
    brand where ownership happens                                                   its handling of the pandemic, can only
    to be Chinese. But if you look at it                                            add to that. “The pandemic has un-
                                                                                    leashed strong feelings about China
 rationally, we are no different from a
                                                                                    globally. They are now facing strong
  Honda, Toyota or a Ford with strong
                                                                                    headwinds across the world and In-
  local manufacturing supported by a
                                                                                    dia is no exception,” says Chellaney.
           large set of global suppliers”
                                                                                    Praveen Khandelwal, National Sec-
    Rajeev Chaba, President and MD, MG Motor                                        retary General, Confederation of All
                                                                                    India Traders, says, “Even before the
                                                                                    lockdown, consumers had started to
                                                                                    show their dislike for Chinese goods
                                                                                    and would not buy them even if avail-
                                                                                    able cheap. This is the best time to
                                                                                    put an end to import of non-essential
                                                                                    goods like toys from China.”
                                 "I thank the Govt. for taking note of                  “The cost quality balance of engi-
                                 my warning and amending the FDI                    neering products coming out of India
                                 norms to make it mandatory for Govt.               is superior to that of China. That is
                                 approval in some specific cases"                   why Triumph and KTM have allied
                                                                                    with us while a company like BMW
                                 Rahul Gandhi                                       has allied with TVS. India is going to
                                                                                    win on its merit and does not need
                                                                                    China to fail for it to succeed. But In-
                                                                                    dian industry needs its government to
                                                                                    support it,” says Rajiv Bajaj, Managing
                                                                                    Director of Bajaj Auto.
                                                                                        At the other end of the spectrum
                                                                                    are social media apps backed by Chi-
global warfare and we just need to protect our domestic          nese companies which, apart from being popular, are
interests. Others should not use our shoulders to fire at        turning into a nightmare for the government in control-
China,” he says. “We should also be a bit cautious when          ling fake news. Apps like Helo, SHAREit, TikTok and
dealing with FDI because while we have abundance of              Vigo have penetrated deep into Tier II-III towns and have
labour and raw materials, we are short of capital. So, we        a huge rural user base with unregulated content. TikTok
also need investments. China is the world’s second-larg-         had in 2019 run into trouble when the Madras High Court
est economy and has the capital. So, it would not be pru-        banned it for increased crime and inappropriate content.
dent to restrict investments entirely. We need a balance.”       The ban was later lifted.
                                                                    Though not a Chinese company, the latest platform
Bracing up for Consumer Backlash                                 to get into trouble is video-calling app Zoom, which
“As we are going to mark the 75th anniversary of Inde-           has emerged as an alternative business calling app dur-
pendence in 2022, I urge all the youth of this country to        ing the Covid crisis. Among the other shareholders

                                                17 May 2020 Business Today                                               25
China Stranglehold on India's                                        2018
                           Smartphone Market (in %)                                             2019

                                                                                                                  28.3
              Xiaomi
                                                                                                                  28.6
                                                                                              22.6
           Samsung
                                                                                              20.3
                                                                         10.1
                Vivo                                                     15.6             Source: IDC Quarterly
                                                              7.2                         Mobile Phone Tracker,
               OPPO                                                                       February 2020
                                                              10.7
                                                              3.2
             Realme
                                                              10.6

              Others                                                                                              28.6
                                                                                                                  14.2

of Zoom, founded by Chinese-American Eric Yuan, is                   terests who want to amplify such kind of negative views.
Hong Kong’s richest man Li Ka Shing, founder of the                  There are some noises but at the end of the day people are
Hutchison Whampoa empire. The Ministry of Home                       smart. We as Indians basically want a good value propo-
Affairs issued an advisory against using Zoom after se-              sition. So, let the best products and services prevail and
curity concerns were raised with the company housing                 let politicians play politics and business guys focus on do-
its data centre in China, among the 17 data centres it has           ing business,” says Rajeev Chaba, President and Manag-
around the world. Sameer Raje, Head of India, Zoom                   ing Director, MG Motor. “MG is a quintessential British
Video Communications, says the company takes privacy                 brand where ownership happens to be Chinese. Our top
seriously. “Many large global institutions have done ex-             management is 100 per cent Indian and we have invested
haustive security reviews of our user, network and data              `3,000-4000 crore in India. We are no different from a
centre layers and continue to use Zoom for most or all               Honda, Toyota or a Ford with strong local manufacturing
of their unified communications needs,” says Raje. He                that is supported by a large set of global suppliers.”
says Zoom is in talks with the MHA and is focused on                     Smartphone companies from China that have made
providing information they need to make informed deci-               even deeper inroads in the market — Xiaomi, Vivo and
sions on policies.                                                   Oppo are among the top 5 — also say they are as Indian
    There is strong sentiment on social media as well. The           a company as any except for the ownership. “Covid-19
day the PBoC raised its stake in HDFC Ltd, the bank was              has had a worldwide impact and any region-focused bias
trolled on microblogging site Twitter with people liken-             would be deemed unnatural. Our focus and priority re-
ing this to an attack by China on India’s banking system.            mains on supporting all customers and minimising dis-
    Similarly, hashtags like #BoycottChina regularly                 ruption. Given our global footprint, we feel we are in a
trend on Twitter in India and some political outfits have            position to handle this well,” says Rahul Agarwal, CEO
also latched on to this. The Swadeshi Jagaran Manch                  and Managing Director, Lenovo India. Xiaomi says 99
(SJM), an organisation that promotes indigenous goods                per cent of its smartphones, as well as smart TVs and
and has close ties with the government and the RSS, has              powerbanks, are made locally and 65 per cent of the value
from time to time exhorted consumers to shun Chinese                 of each phone is sourced from within India.
goods. “After #ChineseVirus, the world has started real-                 “Not just this, we have been able to generate employ-
ising the reality of China beyond cheap goods. This is the           ment for over 50,000 people in India across our part-
time for the globe to unite and practice complete boycott            ners,” says a Xiaomi India spokesperson. “We boast of a
of Chinese goods and capital,” Ashwani Mahajan, the Na-              completely local leadership. We might be headquartered
tional Co-convener of SJM, tweeted on April 21. He has               in China but Xiaomi India operates exactly like a local
more than 31,000 followers.                                          company and we hope our users can see that.”
    This is not the first time a campaign to boycott goods               An online survey conducted between late March and
from China has gained currency in India. But the earlier             early April by Takshashila Institution, a Bangalore-based
ones have had negligible impact on business in the past.             think tank, highlights the negative perception for China
Chinese firms are hoping it will be the same this time as            among Indians. With a sample size of nearly 1,300 re-
well. “During such crises, there are always some vested in-          spondents, a majority 1,156 from India, it found that two-

26                                                Business Today 17 May 2020
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