CSP: A Time for Solid Players - Santiago Seage Analyst & Investor Day - Abengoa
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Innovative Technology Solutions for
Sustainability
ABENGOA
CSP: A Time for Solid Players
Analyst & Investor Day
Santiago Seage May 2012
Forward-looking statements
This presentation contains forward-looking statements and information relating to Abengoa that are based on
the beliefs of its management as well as assumptions made and information currently available to Abengoa.
Such statements reflect the current views of Abengoa with respect to future events and are subject to risks,
uncertainties and assumptions.
Many factors could cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Abengoa to be materially different
from any future results, performance or achievements that may be expressed or implied by such forward-looking
statements, including, among others, changes in general economic, political, governmental and business
conditions globally and in the countries in which Abengoa does business, changes in interest rates, changes in
inflation rates, changes in prices, changes to national and international laws and policies that support renewable
energy sources; inability to improve competitiveness of our renewable energy services and products; decline in
public acceptance of renewable energy sources; legal challenges to regulations, subsidies and incentives that
support renewable energy sources; inability to obtain new sites and expand existing ones; changes in business
strategy and various other factors.
Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should underlying assumptions prove incorrect,
actual results may vary materially from those described herein as anticipated, believed, estimated, expected or
targeted.
Abengoa does not intend, and does not assume any obligations, to update these forward-looking statements.
2
Agenda
CSP: the clean dispatchable power required to do
1
more intermittent renewables
2 Abengoa: the world CSP leader
What is CSP?
Solar Tower Solar Trough
4
Future energy mix
Renewables share is a regulator’s decision. CSP is necessary to enable it
1 Fossil based mix
Low gas prices will increase its
share within the fossil based part
of the mix, taking the place of
other conventional sources
Energy mix % share decided by
regulator directly
or indirectly
(RES, FiTs, taxes, etc.)
2 Renewable mix
Intermittent
+
A significant “renewable mix” can
Dispatchable only be achieved by using both
intermittent and dispatchable resources
CSP is one of the few options that can
enable a significant renewables share
5
Dispatchability
As renewables share in the energy mix becomes higher, CSP’s
dispatchability becomes more necessary and valued
Solar plant in Arizona with storage vs/ utility system load -
Winter Period
CSP 1.6 800
Utility Load, Trough Plant Output
1.4 700
technology Thermal
Solar Resource (W/m2)
1.2 600
energy 1.0 500
storage 0.8 400
0.6 300
0.4
0.2
200
100
Hybridization 0.0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324
with fossil Hour Ending
fuels Solar Radiation Electricity demand CSP plant generation
CSP: the clean dispatchable power
NREL* estimates the value of dispatchability
in up to 4 cents/kWh relative to non-dispatchable energy sources
(*) NREL study “Tradeoffs and Synergies between CSP and PV at High Grid Penetration”
6
The real cost of solar energy
PV and CSP are two different, but complementary, products
c$ / kWh (Southwest US)
Even if PV modules had a cost
of 0,3 USD/Wp in 2020, PV is
intermittent and will not be 16-18
able to offer dispatchability 12-14
10-12
9-10
A utility would need to
cover wind and PV
with idle combined cycles,
electric storage or a
CSP 2020 PV 2020 PV with electrical PV + NGCC 2020**
dispatchable energy source like storage 2020 *
CSP (*) PV with electrical storage (nominal power electrical storage = 50% nominal power PV)
(**) PV with 50% of natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) back-up capacity
Source: Abengoa in-house analysis without any subsidies
7
Cost reduction potential
CSP has a huge cost reduction potential, especially considering that other
renewables already have significantly more installed capacity
c$ / kWh (Southwest US)
45
PV
Current situation
40 since
1980s
35
30 CSP
since
2000s
25 CSP
2 GW
20
c$ / kWh
PV
15
60 GW
Wind 10-12
10 since
Wind 9-10
1980s
5 200 GW 5-6
0
2005 2010 2015 2020
PV Wind CSP
Source: Abengoa in-house analysis
8
Cost reduction under way
Abengoa’s CSP has followed its predicted roadmap and will keep
reducing costs according to it
Capex /generation
- 29% - 42% - 59%
PS10 PS20 PS50 PS140
(2005) (2007) (2011) (2012)
Saturated tower Superheated tower
9
A global market with a solid future
Countries where CSP is already a reality
Countries with CSP plants in operation, construction, existing regulation or bidding processes under way
10Positive forecasts for CSP
CSP will be a significant part of the future energy mix
IEA CSP forecast
GW
250
226 450 Scenario: adds new policies to limit
the concentration of greenhouse gases to
200 450 ppm CO2-eq
150 New Policies Scenario: incorporates the
new policies that have been announced
by Governments around the world
100
81
Current Policies Scenario: includes
50 continuation, without change, of the
44
policies that had been adopted by mid-
2011
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
11Agenda
CSP: the clean dispatchable power required to do
1
more intermittent renewables
2 Abengoa: the world CSP leaderCSP industry worldwide
Abengoa is the largest CSP player in the world
Operation Construction Awarded Total
Abengoa 543 960 150 1653
FPL 400 350 750
Brightsource 380 380
ACS 250 100 350
Acciona 260 50 310
Lanco 200 200
Siemens 50 100 150
Solar Reserve 100 50 150
Torresol/Sener 118 118
Source: Public information
13Abengoa’s key to success
3 key concepts that make us world leader
1 Technology Technology as a source of competitive advantage
Discipline leading to excellence in operation and
2 Discipline construction
3 Diversification Abengoa is the only global CSP player
14Technological advantage
1
Technology as a competitive advantage for Abengoa
R&D Pilot Plant or Real Test Commercial Project
+100 in-house researchers
R&D center in Denver, CO
R&D center in Seville, Spain
Abengoa Research
Collaboration with key
research institutions and
companies worldwide
15Our technological leadership
1
Abengoa is a technology leader in the 3 key areas within CSP
Tower Trough Storage
16CSP technology
1
3 new technologies with significant cost reduction potential
3rd generation trough Superheated Tower Molten Salt Tower
Commercial tower is already a
Currently working in a 3rd Molten salt tower pilot plant
reality and we keep on
generation trough pilot plant just built in Solúcar platform
working in larger towers
Technology status: Technology status: Technology status:
New large aperture collector Commercial Pilot plant ready
designed Exhaustive receiver tests Proprietary receiver
New mirrors and reflective ran successfully in Eureka Commercial tower
materials being tested Storage engineering under
New optics under analysis PS50 engineering ready development
New fluids being tested PS140 engineering will be Research on higher
New key components being ready soon temperature materials and
tested salts
17CSP hybrid technology
1
2 new technologies with high potential in many markets and extremely
competitive costs
ISCC & ISCoal Solugas
Solugas is a revolutionary concept of
Currently working in hybridization
solar-gas hybridization involving the
with all types of fuels and higher
use of gas turbines.
efficiencies
LCOE will be extremely competitive
Technology status: Technology status:
150 MW ISCC commercial plant in Pilot plant already built (April 2012)
operation in Algeria and starting up
ISCoal integration under Research to increase temperature
development from 800ºC to 1000ºC
More efficient solar-gas Commercial tower engineering
technologies under development under development
Research on higher temperature
materials and salts
18Excellence in operations (I)
2
Our discipline leads to good performance in operating plants
121%
PS20
Net production
1 Expected 2
production
April 11 – March 12 (model)
101%
Solnova 1
Net production
1 Expected 2
production
April 11 – March 12 (model)
131%
Helioenergy 1
Net production
1 Expected 2
production
Sept 11 – March 12 (model)
19Excellence in operations (II)
2
Critical mass as a key factor for operational performance
Global excellence in O&M
15 plants in operation by the end of 2012
Technology know how as a key competitive advantage
Plants co-located in complexes
Plants share same basic design
Standardized main equipment
Shared specialists in key areas, logistics,
systems, procedures
Large size plants
Standardized main equipment
One O&M team
20Diversification from the root
3
Business Model: «New Technology + Efficient Developer & Operator»
Develop diversified portfolio of technologies and key components for
internal and third-party use
Technology development is key to be competitive
Key to secure good partners
Incremental value creation by sale of technology and key
components to third parties
Additional profitability in own projects
Develop, own and operate a large diversified portfolio of CSP plants
In-house development teams in 12 key markets
Diversified by geography
Selected partner of choice by large international players
Own and operate, divesting selectively when it maximizes value
Project by project approach
21The only global player
3
Abengoa, through geographical diversification, avoids concentration risk
ABENGOA
26% 25%
43%
75%
31%
Spain
100% = 1593 100% = 750
USA
Others
24%
76%
100%
100% = 310 100% = 350
Source: Public information 22South Africa
3
150 MW awarded in South Africa through a competitive tender
KaXu Solar One Khi Solar One
100 MW trough plant 50 MW superheated tower
3 hours molten salts storage 2 hours steam storage
Dry cooling technology Dry cooling technology
51% Abengoa & 49% IDC* 51% Abengoa & 49% IDC*
Construction start expected in H2 2012 Construction start expected in H2 2012
*IDC = Industrial Development Corporation, the largest financial development institution in South Africa
23In summary
CSP: clean dispatchable power competing alone
and hybridized with gas with combined cycles by 2020
Already a global market with high growth potential
CSP is following its predicted cost reduction roadmap
Abengoa is a unique CSP player:
technology leader and efficient developer and operator of assets
Asset portfolio of 1,593 MW, without including development
24
24Innovative Technology Solutions for
Sustainability
ABENGOA
Thank you!
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