SOUTH AFRICA'S LONG TERM MITIGATION SCENARIOS AND CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY RESPONSE - Workshop on mitigation potentials, comparability of effort and ...
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SOUTH AFRICA’S LONG TERM
MITIGATION SCENARIOS AND CLIMATE
CHANGE POLICY RESPONSE
Workshop on mitigation potentials,
comparability of effort and sectoral
approaches, Bonn, March 2009
1Context
• SA is a developing country with significant
development challenges - poverty,
unemployment and high vulnerability to climate
impacts
• Climate and development
• Adaptation and mitigation balance
– Majority of national “Climate” investment required for
immediate adaptation priorities related to the poor
– Close price gap on mitigation
2South Africa’s approach to mitigation
• Recognition that SA must play its part in
line with prescripts in Convention
• Take action in way appropriate to
national circumstances
• Energy intensive economy – coal based
• LTMS is a study of country’s mitigation
potential in order to inform policy and
action, not a mitigation plan
3LTMS process
4LTMS PROCESS
• LTMS is multi stakeholder, research based
scenario process that has produced an
assessment of country’s mitigation
potential.
• Rigorous, peer reviewed
• Inclusive
• Broad ownership
5THE LTMS SCENARIO BUILDING TEAM
Government Business Civil society
DEAT Environment SASOL EcoCity/CURES
DME Minerals & Energy Eskom SESSA
DST Science & Technology EIUG Energy Intensive Labour (COSATU)
DoT Transport Users Group SEA
Treasury Engen SACAN
Foreign Affairs Grain SA COSATU
DTI Trade & Industry Anglo Coal SALGA
DPE Public Enterprises BHP Billiton WWF-SA
DWAF Water Affairs & Forestry Chamber of Mines Earthlife Africa
Dept of Agriculture Aluminium – AFSA NEDLAC
Presidency Kumba Resources
SAWS Weather Service Chemical – CAIA
CEF / SA Nat’l Energy Research Engen
Institute Forestry SA
NERSA Energy Regulator AgriSA
W Cape Province (DEADP) Business Unity SA
City of Johannesburg Sappi
ARC Envirotech (Waste)
6LTMS
analysis
7Two Scenarios frame South Africa’s options
1,800
1,600
1,400
Current Development Trend
Mt CO 2 -equivalent
1,200
1,000
800
Unilateral contribution
THE GAP
to atmosphere
600
400
200 Upper limit of IPCC lowest scenario
-
39
45
6
8
30
4
2
33
7
42
48
3
36
9
5
1
0
1
2
1
2
0
0
1
2
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
8Business as Usual breakdown
9SA Strategic Analysis
• Energy modelling
– Used bottom-up, partial equilibrium optimisation
modelling framework – MARKAL, widely used for
energy analysis
– Internationally peer-reviewed
• Non-energy modelling (agriculture, waste, land use,
industrial process emissions)
– Spreadsheet-based, based on methods
developed for SA Country Study, based on
international literature
• Economy-wide impacts
– Computable General Equilibrium model,
comparative static and dynamic approaches
• Adaptation & Impacts
– Updating of state-of-the-art knowledge
10Technical Options
• Used SD PAM’s approach to define
actions
• Quantification of emission reductions &
costs
• Scenarios and underlying research reports
available at:
– http://www.deat.gov.za
– http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/Research/LTMS/LTM
S-intro.htm
11Limit less eff vehicles
Escalating CO2 tax Nuclear, extended 50
300
600 Electric vehicles in 25
150 50 -R 4,404
SWH subsidy GWC grid 0
450 R 20 50
0 25 Synfuels methane
300 25
R 607 10
0 R8
R 42 -R 208 5
150 0
Commercial efficiency 0
50
0
CCS 20 Mt
50 25
Electric vehicles w ith
-R 203 Manure management
10
300 nuclear, renew ables 25 0
R 72 5
150 0 Biofuels -R 19
R 102 50 0
0
25
Renew ables, extended Biofuel subsidy R 524 Aluminium
50
300 0 10
25 5 R0
150 R 697
R 92 0 0
0
Im proved vehicle All Medium Hybrids Enteric fermentation
300 300 50 All Small Wedges
efficiency Wedges 50 10
150 150 25 5
25 R 50
-R 269 R 1,987 0
0 0 0 0
Subsidy for renew ables
300
Residential efficiency Reduced tillage
50
10
150 25 Waste management 5
R 125 -R 198 50 R 24
0 0 0
25
Renew ables w ith learning, R 14
300 Cleaner coal 0 Afforestation
extended 50 10
150 25 5
Passenger modal shift R 39
R3 -R 5 50 0
0 0
25
Industrial efficiency -R 1,131
300 Fire control 0
Synfuels CCS 2 Mt
10
50 R 476
150 5
-R 34 25 SynfuelsCCS 23 Mt
0 -R 15 50 0
Nuclear Renew ables 0
300 300 25 Coal mine methane
0 R105 10
12
150 150 5 R 346
R 18 R 52
0 0 0Four Strategic Options
1800
1600
1400 Current development
trends
1200 Reach for the Goal
1000
Low cost SD-PAMs
800
Incentivised mitigation action
Incentivised GHG pricing
600
400
200 IPCC lowest scenario
0
06
21
24
36
12
15
27
09
18
3
30
33
39
42
45
20 8
50
0
4
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
13Mitigation Costs – these
are NOT necessarily
additive
14LTMS Conclusions
and further work
15PROPOSED POLICY DIRECTIONS
• LTMS considered by SA Cabinet and 6 broad
areas for further work identified
– Greenhouse gas emission reductions and limits
– Build on, strengthen and/or scale up current initiatives
– Implementing the “Business Unusual” Call for Action
– Preparing for the future
– Prioritising Vulnerability and Adaptation
– Integrating and Institutionalising Climate Change work
See Annexure A – LTMS Policy Directions
16GHG emission reductions and limits
• It is proposed that climate change mitigation
interventions should be informed by, and
monitored and measured against the following
“peak, plateau and decline” emission trajectory
– Greenhouse gas emissions stop growing (start of
plateau) in 2020-25 at 550 Mt CO2-eq
– Greenhouse gas emissions begin declining in
absolute terms (end of plateau) in 2030-35
– Long-term greenhouse gas emission level reduces to
levels required by science by 2050-60
17Theme 1: GHG emission reductions and
limits (Cont.)
Peak
550
Plateau
Decline
18Build on, strengthen and/or scale up current
initiatives
• Current energy efficiency and electricity
demand-side management initiatives and
interventions must be scaled-up and reinforced,
including setting national targets in line with
LTMS
– Example: more efficient boilers.
• Study to be undertaken on impact of a carbon
tax on the South African economy and also
look at a range of economic and fiscal
mechanisms.
19Implementing the “Business Unusual” Call for
Action
– Renewable energy sector is key “business unusual”
growth sector and set more ambitious national target
for renewable energy of 27% by 2030 and 50% of
electricity generated by 2050
• Example: concentrated solar power
– Transport sector is a key “business unusual” growth
sector and plan developed to reduce its emissions.
– Government to promote the transition to a low-carbon
economy and society and all policy and other
decisions that may have an impact on South Africa’s
GHG emissions.
20Preparing for the future
– Increased support for research and development in
the field of carbon-friendly technologies – with the
focus on the renewable energy and transport
sectors.
– Formal and informal forms of education and
outreach are used to encourage the behavioural
changes required to support the implementation of
the climate change response policy.
21Vulnerability and Adaptation
• Ongoing identification of vulnerabilities to climate
change across all sectors and spheres of government.
• Integrate adaptation actions into all government plans as
a key performance area
• Develop and implement climate adaptation plans with full
stakeholder participation
22Integrating and Institutionalising Climate
Change Work
– Clarify roles and Responsibilities across society
– Climate change response policies and measures
are mainstreamed within existing alignment,
coordination and cooperation structures inside and
outside of Government
23Support needed
• Many no regret SD PAM’s – need support
in removing barriers
– Significant upfront capital investment
requirements International access to
technology (IPR, TTB’s)
– Internal capacity and technical assistance
24Way forward
• On-going process
• High-level political decision on direction
into more formal policy framework by mid
2010
• Policy translated into legislative, regulatory
and fiscal package (from now up to 2012)
• National Climate Change Response Policy
Development Summit March 2009 (has
just occurred)
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