DELIVERING PANDEMIC RESILIENCE REVISITED - Bottlenecks to breakthroughs: What we've learned one year into COVID-19 and how we'll be ready for the ...
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CONFIDENTIAL DELIVERING PANDEMIC RESILIENCE REVISITED Bottlenecks to breakthroughs: What we’ve learned one year into COVID-19 and how we’ll be ready for the next health emergency DHL CSI – Customer Solutions and Innovation
CONFIDENTIAL
Revisiting Pandemic Resilience in a nutshell
Out of the It’s a marathon, not a The home Getting ready for
starting blocks sprint stretch the next race
DHL CSI – Customer Solutions & Innovation | Bonn | June 2021 2
CONFIDENTIAL
CHAPTER 1: Out of the starting blocks
Out of the It’s a marathon, not a The home Getting ready for
starting blocks sprint stretch the next race
DHL CSI – Customer Solutions & Innovation | Bonn | June 2021 3CONFIDENTIAL
Although the last year was difficult, there are ten key achievements of the global community
Deep Dive on following slides
1 COVID-19 vaccine 2 Two new vaccine 3 Total global 4 The complex 5 Extreme
development platforms, that can vaccine production global vaccine cold-chain
occurred five times tackle diseases quadrupled supply chain was requirements
faster than any other beyond COVID-19, within a year ramped-up were met at scale
vaccine in history have emerged and successfully – flawlessly!
begun to mature
6 The vaccination 7 Multilateral action 8 Vaccine economics 9 Markets quickly 10 Large-scale
rate already was taken to work: on a per met the high research on
outpaces the ensure global capita basis end-to- demand for therapeutics
infection rate by a access to end costs for testing, ancillary has been
factor of nine vaccines vaccination equal supplies, and PPE promising
just one week of
lockdown costs
DHL CSI – Customer Solutions & Innovation | Bonn | June 2021 4CONFIDENTIAL
1 COVID-19 vaccine development occurred five times faster than any other vaccine in history
Vaccination innovation
Time from infectious agent identification to vaccine approval in the US, years
5x faster
0.8 4 10 16 25 33 43
COVID-19 Mumps
1 Measles Hepatitis B Human Diarrheal Ebola
papillomavirus disease
1: Note that COVID-19 vaccines have received Emergency Use Approval, whereas the other vaccines have received biologics license application approval in the stated time.
Source: Bernadeta Dadonaite, Max Roser, and Samantha Vanderslott, “Vaccination,” Our World in Data; “COVID-19 vaccines,” US Food and Drug Administration, fda.gov
DHL CSI – Customer Solutions & Innovation | Bonn | June 2021 5CONFIDENTIAL
3 Total global vaccine production quadrupled within a year
Vaccine production
2021, billion doses
20
Pipeline
5
Authorized in at
least 1 geography
4x
10
5
Vaccines COVID-19 vaccines Total
before COVID-19
Source: UNICEF COVID -19 production tracker with additional assumptions on realization and shipment timing of announced volumes (per vaccine development stage). Pre-COVID-19 vaccine data based on Airfinity and the WHO Global Vaccine Market Report 2020.
DHL CSI – Customer Solutions & Innovation | Bonn | June 2021 6CONFIDENTIAL
4 The complex global vaccine supply chain was ramped-up successfully
DPDHL is the trusted partner for Covid-19 vaccine logistics worldwide Key contributions to date
End-to-end
Controlled >338 million doses distributed internationally
All related solutions
temperature
products
>140 countries served
All approved
vaccines Real-time >9,000 flights operated to deliver vaccines
tracking
>350 DHL facilities involved in the process
All
continents Highest
security >50 collaborations in the pharma & public sector
>10 new and dedicated services introduced
DHL CSI – Customer Solutions & Innovation | Bonn | June 2021 7CONFIDENTIAL
6 The vaccination rate already outpaces the infection rate by a factor of nine
Covid-19 vaccination vs. cases
Million people
700
People who have received
600 at least 1 dose
500 +550
since Jan 2021
400
300
200 Total COVID-19 cases
100 +65
since Jan 2021
0
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
2020 2021
Source: Our World in Data COVID-19 data explorer, Apr 28, 2021
DHL CSI – Customer Solutions & Innovation | Bonn | June 2021 8CONFIDENTIAL
Vaccine economics work: on a per capita basis end-to-end costs for
8 vaccination equal just one week of lockdown costs
COST PER PERSON
EUR
~300 - 500
E2E logistics represent
~3-8xCONFIDENTIAL
CHAPTER 2: It’s a marathon, not a sprint
Out of the It’s a marathon, not a The home Getting ready for
starting blocks sprint stretch the next race
DHL CSI – Customer Solutions & Innovation | Bonn | June 2021 10CONFIDENTIAL
Only a small fraction of vaccination rollout achieved – upcoming phase will be challenging
With 1 of 10 bn of the required doses … and the rollout to 220 countries pose
administered, … … a concentrated production footprint challenges for logistics
bn vaccine doses Number of countries clustered by the share of
people fully vaccinated
10
>50% 4
95% of
x10 global vaccine
production is 10-50% 28
concentrated in 8
countries*
1
5% in theCONFIDENTIAL
10 building blocks to go from 4 to 220 countries with
successful vaccination campaigns
1 Partnerships without borders
Fostering
collaboration
2 Supportive data backbone
Securing 3 Transportation capacity management
inbound
flows 4 Packaging sustainability
5 Strategic warehousing
Setting up the
last mile for 6 Synchronized flow of goods
success
7 Vaccination points
8 Well-informed population
Maximizing
demand for 9 A User-Friendly Process
vaccines
10 Incentives convincing last movers
DHL CSI – Customer Solutions & Innovation | Bonn | June 2021 12CONFIDENTIAL
CHAPTER 3: The home stretch
Out of the It’s a marathon, not a The home Getting ready for
starting blocks sprint stretch the next race
DHL CSI – Customer Solutions & Innovation | Bonn | June 2021 13CONFIDENTIAL
Going forward, 7-9 bn additional doses will be needed annually to keep COVID-19 in check
Estimated additional vaccine quantities for 2022 and beyond The need for an additional 7-9 billion doses
Billions will be driven by three factors:
4-5 billion doses will account for ”booster shots”
to maintain the immunity of people who were
Booster shots ~4-5 vaccinated in 2021.
Patients in Another 2-3 billion doses will be earmarked for
~2-3 patient groups, such as children under the age of
new groups
12, who will likely be eligible after the
conclusion of ongoing clinical trials.
New patients ~1
With time willingness to get vaccinated will
likely increase, these new patients will account
for an additional ~1 billion doses (assuming a 10-
Total ~7-9 percentage point uptake).
Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs; Johns Hopkins Center for Communication Program; DHL analysis
DHL CSI – Customer Solutions & Innovation | Bonn | June 2021 14CONFIDENTIAL
3 watchouts needed to be implemented to ensure that today’s supply chain
provides a solid platform for the next years
Players need to implement 3 measures: … then supply chain provides solid platform due to 30% lower volume
Projected global vaccine shipping volumes
Remain prepared for high patient Billion doses
and vaccine volumes
~15-20
~12-14 ~12-14
Maintain logistics infrastructure
and capacity ~10-15
~7-9 ~7-9
5
Plan for seasonal fluctuations
2020 21 22 2023
Source: UNICEF COVID -19 production tracker, Airfinity and the WHO Global Vaccine Market Report 2020. DHL analysis
DHL CSI – Customer Solutions & Innovation | Bonn | June 2021 15CONFIDENTIAL
CHAPTER 4: Getting ready for the next race
Out of the It’s a marathon, not a The home Getting ready for
starting blocks sprint stretch the next race
DHL CSI – Customer Solutions & Innovation | Bonn | June 2021 16CONFIDENTIAL
Getting ready for the next race: 10 strategic actions governments and other
stakeholders should consider pursuing now
Prevention and early identification Containment and countermeasures Medication rollout capacity
1 Institutionalize active partnerships 5 Implement national containment and 8 Maintain “ever-warm” manufacturing
and systems escalation plans capacity
2 Double down on global early-warning 6 Leverage digital contact tracing and 9 Define blueprint research, production,
systems monitoring app and procurement plan for diagnostics,
therapeutics, and vaccines
3 Create and follow through on 7 Establish an emergency stockpile and
integrated epidemic-prevention associated “supplies and logistics” 10 Maintain and expand rollout
agenda emergency system capabilities for diagnostics,
therapeutics, and vaccines
4 Invest in targeted research and
development to improve diagnostics,
therapeutics, and vaccines
DHL CSI – Customer Solutions & Innovation | Bonn | June 2021 17You can also read
