DROUGHE ESTIMATION AND MAPPING - CESBIO Mehrez ZRIBI, Michel le page - theia-land.fr

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DROUGHE ESTIMATION AND MAPPING - CESBIO Mehrez ZRIBI, Michel le page - theia-land.fr
DROUGHE ESTIMATION AND
      MAPPING
     Mehrez ZRIBI, Michel le page
              CESBIO
DROUGHE ESTIMATION AND MAPPING - CESBIO Mehrez ZRIBI, Michel le page - theia-land.fr
CESBIO/TOULOUSE
                  • Toulouse: second university city in France
                  • The world's largest higher education
                    institution in aerospace engineering
                  • Strong presence of the aeronautics, space
                    and high technology industry
                  • Toulouse III is 6th in the world in the
                    Shanghai ranking in remote sensing
                  • The climate and weather are super pleasant

                                                                 2
DROUGHE ESTIMATION AND MAPPING - CESBIO Mehrez ZRIBI, Michel le page - theia-land.fr
Land surface           Surface-climat        Remote sensing
 modelling
               Water               Agro-
                                ecosystems

                          In situ
                       observations

                                                              3
DROUGHE ESTIMATION AND MAPPING - CESBIO Mehrez ZRIBI, Michel le page - theia-land.fr
CESBIO and partners observatories

South West: OSR
India: IRP CEFIRSE
Lebanon: GDRI OLIFE
Morocco: LMI TREMA
Tunisia: LMI NAILA

                                                                              4
                              ICOS, JECAM, GEOGLAM, FLUXNET, ZA PYGAR, IR OZCAR
DROUGHE ESTIMATION AND MAPPING - CESBIO Mehrez ZRIBI, Michel le page - theia-land.fr
Satellite missions in CESBIO
2008     2010           2012      2014     2016   2018     2020          2022   2024       2026         2028   2030       2032
                         SMOS (ESA CNES)

                                                     VENµS (CNES, IAI)

                                                                                Biomass (ESA), P-Band

        Color codes
       Altimeters                                                                      TRISHNA (CNES/ISRO)
       L-Band Passive

       Optical
       Thermal
       Radar
       Precipitation                                                                                              SMOS-HR

                                                                                                                      5
DROUGHE ESTIMATION AND MAPPING - CESBIO Mehrez ZRIBI, Michel le page - theia-land.fr
Satellite products

                     6
DROUGHE ESTIMATION AND MAPPING - CESBIO Mehrez ZRIBI, Michel le page - theia-land.fr
Spatialized plateforms
                                     29 Juin 2006                                  Model de transfert radiatif                             Cartes de Green Area Index
                                                                                  (e.g. BV-net de l'INRA Avignon)                                       m2 feuille/m2 sol
Spot, Landsat,
Sentinel 2                                                                                                                                       29/06/2006
                                                             Initialisation,             NDVI                                                        26/07/2006
                                                                                                                          Forçage,                       09/09/2006
                                                             assimilation
                                                                                                                          calibration
                                                                                                   Modèle
Sentinel 1, Terrasar X                                                                            spatialisé

                     Cartes dynamiques
                          des OSCartes
                                  et des
                            occupation
                              pratiques                                                  SAFYE/                SAFY
                                 du sol                                                  FAO56               Rendement                                    indice foliaire
                              culturales
                                                                                          Eau
                                           8 km                                                        CO2
                            Ré-analyses
                                 Météo                                                            SAFYE-CO2

                                                                                        Exemple de sortie
                                                                                                                                        Validation par stat. régionales
                             Cartes des                                                                                                   (Rendement / Irrigation)
                                   sols

                                                  Validation par stations de
                                                  mesure des flux (ET, Humidité        Bilans C des parcelles de blé en
                                                                                                2011 (gC.m-2)
                                                  sol…)
                                                                                                                                                                            7
DROUGHE ESTIMATION AND MAPPING - CESBIO Mehrez ZRIBI, Michel le page - theia-land.fr
Impacts of drought
   • Economic
   • Social
   • environmental
   • Impacts increase in response to increasing vulnerability
     resulting from increased pressure on limited water
     resources, population growth and many other factors.
   • Post-crash response increases vulnerability.
   • The impacts differ from one country to another.
DROUGHE ESTIMATION AND MAPPING - CESBIO Mehrez ZRIBI, Michel le page - theia-land.fr
Drought Characteristics
   •   Normal component of climate variability
   •   No universal definition
   •   Complex
   •   Interdisciplinary
   •   Impacts can be economic, social, environmental
   •   Impacts can persist for years
   ❖ The beginning and end of the drought are difficult to
     determine
   ❖ No precise and universally accepted definition of drought
   ❖ Non-structural impacts and spread over a large
     geographical area
DROUGHE ESTIMATION AND MAPPING - CESBIO Mehrez ZRIBI, Michel le page - theia-land.fr
Agricultural Drought
→   Meteorological drought affecting agriculture

→   Usually, the first economic sector to be affected

→   Shortage of precipitation, ET, soil moisture, etc.

→   Demand for water from the plant in relation to
    available soil moisture
Monitoring of Drought
• Importance of drought indices
→ Simplify complex inter-relationships and provide a good
  communication tool for many audiences
→ Quantitative assessment of climatic conditions
→ Provide a historical perspective that can be used in
  planning and design applications
Data and Methods
Long multi-spectral and multi-
resolution time series

                              SpotVeg, Proba-v – Sentinel-3

                                       MODIS - VIIRS

                    AVHRR

                    ERS

                                             ASCAT (Metop A-C)

                                                 SMOS, SMAP

      1980   1990           2000                2010             2020
Long multi-spectral and multi-
resolution time series

                                SpotVeg, Proba-v – Sentinel-3

                                         MODIS - VIIRS

                      AVHRR

                      ERS

                                               ASCAT (Metop A-C)

                                                   SMOS, SMAP

        1980   1990           2000                2010             2020
Selected Indices

• MODIS NDVI : Vegetation vigor

• MODIS LST : Land Surface Temperature

• ASCAT SWI : Soil Moisture
                                      m (
                                      s i
                                         t )e − (t −ti ) T

                        SWI (t ) =    i
                                                              for   ti  t
                                          e
                                          i
                                               − (t −ti ) T
Normalization of Remote Sensing Obs.

 VAI: Vegetation Anomaly Index

 NDVI: NDVI at one date

 NDVImean: mean of NDVI for a selected period

 s: standard deviation of NDVI

→ The same normalization is applied to Soil Moisture
  (MAI) and Temperature (TAI)
Mixed indices

Indi = αi VAIi + βi MAIi

         Indi − Indi    mean
GDIi =
               σInd,i

                               Zribi et al., RS, 2021
Classify drought on two dimensions
                                                     VAI                Ambiguous: Healthy
                                                                       vegetation but Dry Soil
      DRY
                                  -Inf   -2S   -1S   0     1S   2S    Inf
                           -Inf

                           -2S
                                         8                      9
                           -1S                 4            5
                     MAI
                             0                       1

 Ambiguous: Low             1S                 7            6
vegetation but Wet
       Soil                              11                      10              WET
                            2S

                           Inf

                                                                      Le Page, Zribi, Scientific Reports, 2019
Search for similar years using a drought vector
Study Area: North-West Africa

ESA CCI-LC
V2.0.7

GLCNMO V3.1
Caracterization of agricultural calendars
     Minimum of NDVI             Maximum of NDVI

  Average Date of maxNDVI      Stdev of Date of maxNDVI
Occurrences of Situations

                                    VAI
                 -Inf   -2S   -1S   0     1S   2S    Inf
          -Inf

          -2S
                        8                      9
          -1S                 4            5
    MAI

            0                       1

           1S                 7            6
                        11                      10
           2S

          Inf

2007 to 2018, November to April
Occurrences of Situations: Normal and moderate

2007 to 2018, November to April
Occurrences of Situations: Extremes

2007 to 2018, November to April
Occurrences of Situations: Ambiguous

 2007 to 2018, November to April
Drought qualification for the study area
                                                                                           50
                                                 VAI
                                                                                           45
                                                                                                                               % Moderately Dry
         -Inf
                  -Inf       -2S       -1S       0          1S        2S         Inf       40
                                                                                           35                                  %Very Dry
          -2S
                             8                                        9
          -1S                          4                     5                             30
                                                                                           25

                                                                                       %
  MAI

              0                                  1

             1S
                                                                                           20
                                       7                     6
                             11                                        10                  15
             2S

          Inf
                                                                                           10
                                                                                            5
                                                                                            0

                                                                                                                                                                                   Avg.
                                                                                                2008

                                                                                                       2009

                                                                                                                 2010

                                                                                                                        2011

                                                                                                                                 2012

                                                                                                                                        2013

                                                                                                                                                2014

                                                                                                                                                       2015

                                                                                                                                                              2016

                                                                                                                                                                     2017

                                                                                                                                                                            2018
                                                                                           25
                                                                                                              Good Vgt but Dry soil            Good Vgt but Dry soil 2
                                             VAI
              -Inf       -2S       -1S       0         1S        2S        Inf
                                                                                                              Low Vegt but Wet soil 2          Low Vegt but Wet soil
      -Inf                                                                                 20
      -2S
                         8                                       9
      -1S                          4                    5                                  15
MAI

                                                                                       %

         0                                   1

        1S                         7                    6                                  10
                         11                                       10
        2S

        Inf                                                                                 5

                                                                                            0

                                                                                                                                                                                   Avg.
                                                                                                2008

                                                                                                       2009

                                                                                                                 2010

                                                                                                                                 2012

                                                                                                                                        2013

                                                                                                                                                2014

                                                                                                                                                                     2017

                                                                                                                                                                            2018
                                                                                                                        2011

                                                                                                                                                       2015

                                                                                                                                                              2016
                                           2007 to 2018, 90 administrative areas. November to April for each agricultural year
Drought qualification for the study area
           50
           45
                                                  % Moderately Dry
           40
           35                                     %Very Dry
           30
           25
       %   20
           15
           10
            5
            0

                                                                                                      Avg.
                   2008

                          2009

                                    2010

                                           2011

                                                    2012

                                                           2013

                                                                   2014

                                                                          2015

                                                                                 2016

                                                                                        2017

                                                                                               2018
             25
                                 Good Vgt but Dry soil            Good Vgt but Dry soil 2
                                 Low Vegt but Wet soil 2          Low Vegt but Wet soil
             20

             15
         %

             10

             5

             0

                                                                                                      Avg.
                   2008

                          2009

                                    2010

                                                    2012

                                                           2013

                                                                   2014

                                                                                        2017

                                                                                               2018
                                           2011

                                                                          2015

                                                                                 2016
2007 to 2017, November to April for each agricultural year
Drought qualification for the study area
           50
           45
                                                  % Moderately Dry
           40
           35                                     %Very Dry
           30
           25
       %   20
           15
           10
            5
            0

                                                                                                      Avg.
                   2008

                          2009

                                    2010

                                           2011

                                                    2012

                                                           2013

                                                                   2014

                                                                          2015

                                                                                 2016

                                                                                        2017

                                                                                               2018
             25
                                 Good Vgt but Dry soil            Good Vgt but Dry soil 2
                                 Low Vegt but Wet soil 2          Low Vegt but Wet soil
             20

             15
         %

             10

             5

             0

                                                                                                      Avg.
                   2008

                          2009

                                    2010

                                                    2012

                                                           2013

                                                                   2014

                                                                                        2017

                                                                                               2018
                                           2011

                                                                          2015

                                                                                 2016
2007 to 2017, November to April for each agricultural year
50
    45
                                        % Moderately Dry
    40
    35                                  %Very Dry

                                                                                                    Use cases for the peculiar years
    30
    25

%
    20
    15
    10
     5
     0

                                                                                            Avg.
         2008

                2009

                          2010

                                 2011

                                          2012

                                                 2013

                                                         2014

                                                                2015

                                                                       2016

                                                                              2017

                                                                                     2018
    25
                       Good Vgt but Dry soil            Good Vgt but Dry soil 2
                       Low Vegt but Wet soil 2          Low Vegt but Wet soil
    20

    15

%
    10

     5

     0
                                                                                                   Settat, Morocco   Aïn Defla, Algeria           Kairouan, Tunisia

                                                                                            Avg.
         2008

                2009

                          2010

                                 2011

                                          2012

                                                 2013

                                                         2014

                                                                2015

                                                                       2016

                                                                              2017

                                                                                     2018
                                                          2007-08

                                                          2015-16

                                                          2017-18

                                                                                                             NDVI       SWI               Cumulative Rainfall
Performance of the forecast
                 Percentage of   Percentage of     Average Rank

                 First Analog    First or Second

                                     Analog

      November       21.2             38.4             4.09

      December       32.6             53.0             3.12

       January       47.5             72.4             2.46

      February       57.3             80.0             2.03

       March         71.4             91.7             1.51

        April        100               100              1
Use Case: Settat, Morocco
Use Case: Settat, Morocco
    1         1         -

    3         1         1

    3         1         1

    2         1         3

    1         1         1
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