Ibec Covid-19 Economic update - 9th April 2020
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Ibec Covid-19
Economic update
9th April 2020Mapping early indicators of the economic impact of Covid-19 and its potential impact Objective • Inform business decision makers with the best available data • Help companies understand the impact Covid-19 is having on the economy in real-time Focus • Our analysis maps a range of indicators across the following areas: Restaurant bookings, Google searches for welfare payments, traffic volumes, exchequer returns, unemployment and wage subsidy payments, share of private sector turnover and employment growth and vehicle licensing. Structure • Focus on ‘real-time’ data points • Keep Ibec members up to date on official Government data as it develops • Provide analysis of the scale of the Covid-19 economic risk
Leading indicators of uncertainty
Monthly Google search volumes for 'social welfare'
• Autumn '07 to Dec '09, when most people
Ireland, 2004 to March 2020
100
lost their jobs during the last crisis, the
volume of Google searches for "Social
90
Welfare" was a good leading indicator of
80 demand for services (basic correlation
70 with live register was 0.93).
60 • A score of 100 means that the search term
50 is extremely popular relative to all other
40 search terms in Ireland at the time. A
30
score of 0 means it is not.
20 • This time may be different to a degree, in
10 that many of the people who were
obviously worried about their jobs on
0
these numbers will now end up supported
2004-01
2004-09
2005-05
2006-09
2007-05
2008-01
2008-09
2009-05
2010-01
2010-09
2011-05
2012-01
2012-09
2013-05
2014-01
2014-09
2016-01
2016-09
2017-05
2018-01
2018-09
2019-05
2020-01
2006-01
2015-05
in employment by the wage subsidy
scheme.Restaurant bookings
Year-on-year growth in seated diners at restaurants on the
Opentable network in the 40 days from Feb 18th to March 28th
20
0 • The Open-Table platform manages
bookings for around 60,000 premises
-20
globally.
-40
• The data shows year-on-year growth in
-60 seated diners at restaurants on the
OpenTable network across all channels:
-80 online reservations, phone reservations,
and walk-ins.
-100
Day Day Day Day Day Day Day Day Day Day Day Day Day Day Day Day Day Day Day Day
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39
Global Ireland United KingdomEconomic sentiment
European Commission Economic Sentiment Index • The European Commission’s
130.0 Economic sentiment index is a
composite of surveys of consumers
120.0
and business.
110.0
• March saw the biggest in monthly
100.0 decline in the index in the eurozone
since 1985 with particularly poor
90.0
sentiment in Italy (-17.6) and
80.0
Germany (-9.8).
70.0 • The Irish fall (-6.8) was the second
largest in one month since 2008 but
60.0 only reflects the period up to March
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
23rd, with most responses taken
EU Ireland
before significant public health
measures were introduced.Employment and wages
• Sectors closed due to Covid-19
Share of private sector employment and wages by status of restrictions account for about 44.4% of
sector private sector employment and 34.3% of
100% wages. Majority of this is due to retail,
90% construction and hospitality closure.
30.5% 34.9%
80%
• Prior to the Covid-19 measures, 711,000
70% private sector workers were employed in
60% sectors that are now closed.
25.1%
50% 30.8%
• 30.5% of total employment and 34.9% of
40%
wages in private sector accounted for by
30% sectors which are operating on a limited
20% 44.4% basis, either due to some businesses
34.3% within the sector considered essential or
10%
through remote working (mostly
0% services).
Private sector employment Private sector wages
Primarily closed Essential (open) Limited operationalityEmployment
50%
• Largest closed sectors in terms of
Share of private sector employment by subsector and operationality
employment are construction,
45% food and beverage service and
Other manufacturing, 2.5%
Non-essential wholesale,
non-grocery retail.
40% 2.9%
Accomodation, 3.3%
35%
• Majority of employment within
non-grocery retail, 7.4%
30% sectors operating on a limited
Manufacturing, 3.07%
basis (e.g remotely) accounted
25% Food and beverage service, Pharmaceutical for by professional services
7.9% manufacturing, 2.7%
Other services, 2.8%
(Finance, ICT, Legal services
20%
Food and Beverage etc.).
manufacturing, 3.5%
Construction, 9.2%
15%
Other manufacturing, 4.4% Services, 27.4%
10% Transport and
warehousing, 5.7%
5% Other services, 11.2%
Grocery retail, 6.1%
0%
Primarily closed Essential (open) Operating on a limited basisShare of employment growth
Share of total employment growth 2012-2019 by operationality
of sector due to Covid-19 restrictions • 37.3% of new jobs (incl. public
sector) created between 2012 and
2019 were in sectors which are now
closed. These were primarily in
construction, manufacturing, food
service and retail.
37.3%
42.4%
20.1%
Primarily closed Essential (open) Limited operationalityShare of turnover
Share of private sector turnover by operationality due to
Covid-19 restrictions
• Sectors that account for 26% of total
private sector turnover are now closed
26.2% due to Covid-19 measures.
34.8%
• 74% of private sector turnover is
accounted for by sectors which are
considered essential and therefore open
or sectors which are operating on a
limited basis.
39.1%
Primarily closed Essential (open) Limited operationalityShare of turnover
45%
Share of private sector turnover by subsector and operationality
• Open services are primarily
40%
essential services such as
Food and Beverage transport, telecoms and
manufacturing, 5.3%
35%
Manufacturing, 2.3%
wholesale of essential goods
Grocery retail, 3.3% (food, pharmaceuticals, ICT).
30%
Open manufacturing, 7.3%
25%
Non-grocery retail, 3.6% • Majority of turnover of firms
Closed manufacturing, 1.6% operating on a limited basis
20%
Construction, 3.1% Pharmaceutical (e.g remotely) accounted for by
manufacturing, 8.4%
Services, 32.4%
professional services (finance,
15%
Closed services, 8.3%
ICT, consultancies etc.).
10%
Open services, 14.8%
5% Non-essential wholesale,
9.6%
0%
Primarily closed Essential (open) Operating on a limited basisUnemployment and wage subsidy payments
• Total of 712,209 people on live register or
Numbers on Live Register and Covid-19 related Payments Pandemic unemployment payment.
800,000
• Combined numbers on the live register
700,000
and pandemic unemployment payment
represent the highest number on
600,000 Pandemic
Unemployment
unemployment payments in the history of
Payment the state.
500,000
507,000
• 39,000 businesses have now registered
400,000
for the wage subsidy scheme. Figures for
Live Register
numbers of workers on wage subsidy
300,000
expected in coming days.
200,000
100,000 205,209
0March exchequer returns
March exchequer receipts • Exchequer receipts for March are 800m
below profile, Largely due to fall in VAT
€6,000 from deferral of VAT payments for January
€5,123m
and February.
€5,000
€4,137m
€4,000 • Income and corporation tax returns are
both lagging coronavirus events and were
€3,000 up on the same month last year. Expect to
see large drop in income tax and
€2,000 corporation tax in April returns as
Coronavirus impact starts to feed through
€1,000 to tax receipts.
€0
VAT Income Tax Corporation Tax Other Tax
Outturn ProfileTraffic volumes • Volume of weekday traffic has fallen
substantially between last week of
January and last week of March.
Vehicles Average Weekday Traffic
120,000 • Drop of around 40% in average weekday
traffic at major junctions. This is likely to
100,000 Jan 27th-31st have dropped even further since stricter
lockdown measures introduced.
80,000 March 23rd-27th
• Higher proportions of Heavy Goods
60,000
Vehicles (HGVs) as number of cars falls
dramatically and freight accounts for more
40,000
of total traffic.
20,000 N7
N8 Dunkettle M6 M7 Castletroy
Newlands
interchange, Athenry junction,
0 cross,
Cork Junction Limerick
N8 Dunkettle N7 Newlands M6 Athenry M7 Castletroy %HGV Dublin
interchange, cross, Dublin Junction junction, Jan 5.7% 9.7% 7.73% 8%
Cork Limerick March 9.3% 16.5% 12.3% 14%Vehicles licensed for the first time
• Number of goods vehicles licensed in
Vehicles licensed in March
March 20% lower than the same month
35,000
last year.
30,000
• Licensing of all other vehicles 30% lower
25,000 than March 2019. Biggest reduction is in
the licensing of private cars.
20,000
15,000
• Because there can be a delay between
10,000 registering and licensing of vehicles, the
March figures will also capture some
5,000 vehicles which were registered in
previous months.
0
March 19' March 20'
All other vehicles New and Secondhand Goods VehiclesUpcoming data Data Release date Inflation (CPI) for March April 9th Wholesale price index for March April 22nd Overseas travel for March April 27th Retail sales for March April 28th Industrial production and turnover for March May 6th Monthly Unemployment for April May 6th Live register for April May 8th
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