General Election Campaign Opinion Poll - February 2020 - RED C Research

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General Election Campaign Opinion Poll - February 2020 - RED C Research
General Election Campaign
Opinion Poll
February 2020
General Election Campaign Opinion Poll - February 2020 - RED C Research
Methodology and Weighting
/   RED C interviewed a random sample of 1000 adults aged 18+ by telephone between the
    25th – 30th January 2020.
/   A random digit dial (RDD) method is used, with a mixture of mobile and landline sample, to
    ensure a random selection process of households to be included with 98% coverage – this
    also ensures that ex-directory households are covered.
/   Interviews are conducted across the country and the results weighted to the profile of all
    adults.
/   A further past vote weighting is included that takes the recall for how people voted in the
    last election, compares this to the actual results and weights the data between the two.
/   Vote intention results are weighted based on turnout, including both how likely each
    respondent is to actually go and vote, as well as whether or not they voted in the last
    general election.
/   In all respects the poll was completed to the opinion polling guidelines set out by both
    ESOMAR and AIMRO.

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General Election Campaign Opinion Poll - February 2020 - RED C Research
General Election
General Election Campaign Opinion Poll - February 2020 - RED C Research
First Preference Vote Intention – 2nd February 2020
If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted)
(Base: All adults 18+ who will vote)

                                                                                                                                                                      Fine Gael
                                                                                                                                                                      21% -2
                                                                                                                                                                      Fianna Fáil
                                                                                                                                                                      24% -2
                                                                                                                                                                      Sinn Féin

                                                                                                                                                                      24% +5
                                                                                                                                                                      Green
                                                                                                                                                                      7% -1
                                                                                                                                                                      Labour
                                                                                                                                                                      5% +1
                                                                     Ind. Candidates                      Social                            Solidarity-     Other
                                                                                                          Democrats         Aontú           PBP             Parties
          Undecided Voters
          8%                                                         12%               -2                 3% =              2% +1           1% -1           1% +1

                                                                                                                                                                                    4
General Election Campaign Opinion Poll - February 2020 - RED C Research
First Preference Vote Intention – 2nd February 2020                                                                                                                                                                                                Nov
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   24th
If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted)                                                                     2016                                  Feb
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Election                                 2nd
(Base: All adults 18+ who will vote)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Oct           Jan
              32%
                    30%                                                                                                                                                                                                                     27th          26th
        26%

                                                        26%
                                      24%
                                            24%
                                                  24%

                                                              24%

                                                                                            24%
                          23%
                                21%

                                                                                      19%

                                                                                                  17%
                                                                                                        17%
                                                                                                              16%
                                                                    14%

                                                                                                                    14%
                                                                                                                          12%
                                                                          11%
                                                                                11%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           8%
                                                                                                                                7%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                 7%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      7%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                7%
                                                                                                                                          6%

                                                                                                                                                    5%
                                                                                                                                     4%

                                                                                                                                               4%

                                                                                                                                                         4%

                                                                                                                                                                                   3%

                                                                                                                                                                                                  3%
                                                                                                                                                                                                       3%

                                                                                                                                                                                                            3%
                                                                                                                                                                    2%
                                                                                                                                                                         2%

                                                                                                                                                                                        2%
                                                                                                                                                                                             2%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2%
                                                                                                                                                               1%

                                                                                                                                                                              1%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   1%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       0%
       Fine                           Fianna                        Sinn                           Ind.                                                       Solidarity                Social
       Gael                           Fáil                          Féin                           Candidate                     Labour                       -PBP                      Democrats                Green                      Aontú
       21%                            24%                           24%                            12%                           5%                           1%                        3%                       7%                         2%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Other Parties
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 1%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           5
General Election Campaign Opinion Poll - February 2020 - RED C Research
Party 1st Preference Vote Intention X Demographics
If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted)

 Note: Results on sub sample of the population are based on a much smaller sample size per group, and as such have a much higher margin of error.
 The results should therefore be treated with caution
                         February 2020                            Gender                            Age                            Social Class                           Region
                                                                                                                                                                      Rest of             Conn/
                                                 Total        Male       Female       18-34        35-54         55+        ABC1         C2DE          F    Dublin   Leinster   Munster   Ulster

Fianna Fáil                                      24%         24%          24%          18%         19%          32%         22%          23%        48%     19%       26%        27%      23%
Sinn Fein                                        24%         27%          20%          35%         29%          11%         19%          29%        11%     27%       20%        21%      29%
Fine Gael                                        21%         20%          22%          15%         18%          27%         22%          18%        32%     19%       25%        18%      20%
Independents                                     12%         11%          13%          8%          14%          13%         12%          14%         4%      9%        8%        16%      18%
The Green Party                                   7%          5%          10%          12%          7%           5%          9%           6%         4%     14%        5%        6%        2%
Labour                                            5%          5%           5%          4%           5%           6%          6%           5%          0      5%        6%        7%        1%
Social Democrats                                  3%          2%           3%          4%           3%           1%          3%           2%          0      3%        4%          0       4%
Aontú                                             2%          3%           2%          1%           2%           4%          5%           1%          0
First Preference Vote Intention – Since GE 2016
If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted)
(Base: All adults 18+ who will vote )
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Leo Varadkar calls
                    35%
                                 Confidence and                                                                         Leo Varadkar                                                                                                                                                                                           General Election
                                supply agreement                                                                      becomes leader of
                                    reached                                                                           FG and Taoiseach
                    30%

        Fine Gael
                    25%
      Fianna Fáil                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     24%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      21%
                    20%

     Independent

                    15%
        Sinn Féin

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      12%
          Labour    10%

   Solidarity-PBP

     Green Party
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      7%
Social Democrats
                     5%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               5%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      3%
           Renua                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2%
          Aontú
                     0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      1%
                                                                                  Nov-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                     Mar '18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         May '18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Mar '19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         May '19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Sept '19
                                                       Jul-16

                                                                         Oct-16

                                                                                                                                                                       Nov '17

                                                                                                                                                                                 Jan '18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Nov '18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jan '19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jan '20
                           GE 2016

                                                                Sep-16

                                                                                                    Feb-17

                                                                                                                      Apr-17
                                              May-16

                                                                                                                               May-17

                                                                                                                                        July '17

                                                                                                                                                             Oct '17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Oct '18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Oct '19
                                     Mar-16

                                                                                           Jan-17

                                                                                                             Mar-17

                                                                                                                                                   Sep '17

                                                                                                                                                                                           Feb '18

                                                                                                                                                                                                               Apr '18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Sep '18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Feb '19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Feb '20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Nov '19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Apr '19
           Other

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            7
First Preference Vote Intention – 2012-2020
If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted)
(Base: All adults 18+ who will vote )

                        40%

                                 2012      2013                   2014                2015                        2016                        2017          2018   2019   2020
                        35%
          Fine Gael

                        30%

                        25%
             Labour
                                                                                                                                                                             24%
        Fianna Fáil
                        20%                                                                                                                                                  21%
          Sinn Féin

      Independent
                        15%
    Solidarity-PBP

       Ind Alliance                                                                                                                                                          12%
                        10%
       Green Party

 Social Democrats                                                                                                                                                            7%
                         5%
              Renua                                                                                                                                                          5%
                                                                                                                                                                             3%
               Aontú                                                                                                                                                         2%
                         0%                                                                                                                                                  1%
               Other

Note; From GE 2016 Onwards, ‘Independents/Others’ split
out to show Solidarity-PBP, Social Democrats & Renua
separately                                                                                                                                                                         8
First Preference Vote Intention – 2009 to 2020
If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted)
(Base: All adults 18+ who will vote )

                            2009        2010         2011             2012           2013           2014           2015                 2016                2017   2018   2019   2020
                     45%

      Fianna Fáil
                     40%

                     35%

                     30%

        Fine Gael

          Labour
                     25%                                                                                                                                                          24%
     Independent
                     20%
                                                                                                                                                                                  21%
        Sinn Féin

      Ind Alliance   15%

   Solidarity-PBP                                                                                                                                                                 12%
     Green Party     10%

Social Democrats
                                                                                                                                                                                  7%
                     5%
                                                                                                                                                                                  5%
           Renua
                                                                                                                                                                                  3%
          Aontú                                                                                                                                                                   2%
                     0%                                                                                                                                                           1%
           Other

Note; From GE 2016 Onwards, ‘Independents/Others’ split
out to show Solidarity-PBP, Social Democrats & Renua
separately                                                                                                                                                                              9
Preferred Coalitions
What Coalition do Voters Want to See – Feb 2020
Q. It is likely that a coalition of parties will be required to form a government after the next election. Can you tell me which of the following possible coalition you think will be best for Ireland?
(Base: All likely voters, n = 813)
 Lead                                                                                     Preferred Coalition
 Party                          Junior Partner/s

                                                                          Independents/
                                                                              Others                                             22%
                                                                                                                                                         Would like to see party in Gov
                                                                                                                                                         formation
                                                                         Independents/
                                                                             Others                                             21%

                                                                                                                         17%                                                         48%
                                                                         Independents/
                                                                             Others
                                                                                                                         17%
                                                                                                                                                                                     37%
                                                                                                           9%

                                                                                                                                                                                     33%
                                                                                                 3%

                         None of these / Don’t Know                                                           11%

                                                                                                                                                                                                           11
Why are Voters Moving to Sinn
Féin?
First Preference Vote Intention – Sinn Fein
If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted)

 (Base:Results
Note:   All Irishon
                  Adults likely toofvote
                    sub sample       the aged 18+) are based on a much smaller sample size per group, and as such have a much higher margin of error.
                                         population
The results should therefore be treated with caution

                                                                                        Nov 24th          Jan 26th               Feb 2nd

                                                            35% 35%

                                                                                  29%                                                 29%                                                                                    29%
                              27%                                                                                                                                       27%
            24%
                                          22%         22%                                                                       22%                               22%
                                                                                                                                                                                    21%                    21%
                                                20%                                                                                                                                       20%
      19%                                                                   19%                                     19%
                                                                                                              17%                                                                                    17%
                        16%                                                                                                                                                   16%
                                                                                                                          15%
                                                                      13%
                  12%                                                                                                                                 12%                                                              12%
11%                                                                                                11%                                                      11%                                                  11%
                                    10%
                                                                                             8%
                                                                                                         7%                                      7%                                             7%
                                                                                                                                            6%
                                                                                        4%

    Total           Male             Female             18-34           35-54                55+              ABC1          C2DE                 F            Dublin                ROL         Munster          Conn/Ulster
Reasons for moving to Sinn Féin
 Q. Why are you thinking that you will give that party a first preference vote in the upcoming general election? What other reason do you have for choosing
 that party this time?

      Base: All those giving 1st preference to Sinn Féin that didn’t in GE2016

      Time for real Change                                                     39%                   78% suggesting they want a
         Don’t want FF / FG                                                    39%                   shift from the FG/FF status quo
                                                                                                                            Time for a major change in               They seem to be
Represent Ordinary people                       10%                          The country needs a change of                                                               the only
                                                                                                                             policies on Homelessness,
                                                                             direction and attitude in terms                Health and austerity which               candidates that
                      Housing                   10%                                                                                                                   really want to
                                                                               of leadership. We've had FF                    present government are
                                                                              and FG at the helm for years                incapable of dealing with. The                 change
                     Pensions                 8%
                                                                                and nothing is improving                   fact that they are refusing to
           Local Candidates                6%                                                                              consider Sinn Fein as capable
                                                                                                                               to be in Government is              Their stance on the
         Leader - Mary Lou               4%                                                                                absolutely disgusting and an              pension issue
                                                         I believe FF/FG have together ruined the health
                                                         service and housing situation in this country. It                    insult to those who are
                  Healthcare             4%             seems to me FG do not care about people outside                     prepared to vote Sinn Fein.
                                                         of Dublin or the ordinary people of Ireland. It is
              United Ireland           3%                       time to give someone else a chance.                                             Their spokespeople in the Dáil are very
                                                                                                                                               impressive and seem to know what they
             Pearse Doherty           2%                                                                                                         are talking about and seem to be in
                                                                   FF/FG have broken a lot of promises during their tenure.                    touch with the ordinary people not posh
                         Other                         18%          I'm moved to give SF a chance at this stage. Although I                        detached as we have at present
                                                                     don't agree with their stances on some issues, Pearse
                                                                   Doherty strikes me as an alternative worth hearing more
                                                                                              from.                                                                                (Q.6a)
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