GFCS: Status of Implementation - (GFCS) Director, Global Framework for Climate Services World Meteorological Organization
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GFCS: Status of Implementation
Filipe Lúcio
Director, Global Framework for Climate Services
(GFCS)
World Meteorological Organization
flucio@wmo.int
Weather • Climate • Water 1
www.gfcs-climate.org/
Concern
Vision
Enable better management of the risks of climate variability and change and
adaptation to climate change, through the development and incorporation of
science-based climate information and prediction into planning, policy and
practice on the global, regional and national scale
Energy
GFCS Pillars
70
Basic
60 Essential
# of Countries/Territories
50
Full
40
30
Advanced
20
Less than
10 Basic
0
Infrastrucal Capacity Category
Global Many countries lack the
infrastructural, technical, human
Regional and institutional capacities to
provide high-quality climate
National services.
Weather • Climate • Water 4
What are Climate Services?
• The accumulation of knowledge about the past, present and
future of the climate system;
• The development and delivery of a range of "products" and
advice based on this knowledge about the past, present and
future climate and its impacts on natural and human systems
• Historical climate data sets
• Climate monitoring
• Climate watches
• Monthly/Seasonal/Decadal climate predictions
• Climate change projections
• The use and the effective application of these products to help
achieve the desired results.
A Climate service: Providing climate information in a way
that assists decision making by individuals and organizations.
A service requires appropriate engagement along with an
effective access mechanism and must respond to user
needs.
Weather • Climate • Water 5
Seamless hydrometeorological and climate
services
Weather • Climate • Water 6
Simplified Schematic: Hazard / Risk Assessment
(statistical and forward looking)
Hazard Exposure Potential Decisions
Analysis and and Loss
Mapping Vulnerability Estimates
Number of Policy and
planning
lives at risk
Disaster Risk
Financing
$ at risk
Assets: EWS
Heavy Precipitation population density Destruction of
and flood mapping agricultural land buildings and Sectoral Risk
urban grid infrastructure Managment
Need for historical and real Infrastructure
Reduction in crop
time hazard data Businesses
yields
etc
meteorological, Need for historical loss Business
hydrological and climate and damage data, interruption
forecasts and trend Development and etc
analysis engineering information
Building GFCS through partnerships
Systematic approach for GFCS
implementation at national level
Step 1: National Baseline Capacity Assessment for Development of
Climate Services
Step 2: National Consultation on Climate Services, Development of
NHMS Action Plan
Step 3: Participatory Inter-sectoral Establishment of a National
Framework for Climate Services
Step 4: National Action Plan Endorsement (High level)
Step 5: Launch of National Framework for Climate Services,
Operational implementation of priority activities, rigorous M&E
Key components of National Action
Plans
• Component 1: The generation of high quality hydro
meteorological information and co-production of climate
services with sectorial technical experts (first level users) across
national climate sensitive sectors to deliver user-tailored climate
services
• Component 2: Enabling Communication and appropriate access
to data and climate services at national level by final users
• Component 3: Strengthening the capacity of users to
understand and act on received climate services, as well as
provide feedback on the quality/relevance of services received
• Component 4: Defining an appropriate Governance framework
for National Climate Services (the NFCS) ensuring linkages with
adaptation efforts underway.Key functions of National Frameworks
for Climate Services
• Serve as a Platform for institutional coordination among
stakeholders at national and sub-national level, needed to tailor
climate information to sectorial needs
• Provide a Legal Framework that clarifies institutional mandates
for the generation, tailoring, communication, use and evaluation
of climate services
• Provide a framework to orchestrate the work among key
national institutions in charge of climate (e.g., NMHSs,
Hydrology Departments, National Bureaus of Climate Change,
Disaster Management Platforms, etc.) to enable a functional
chain for linking climate knowledge with action on the ground
so as to maximize the application of weather and climate
forecasting products
• Raise climate issues to the appropriate political levelsKey functions of National Frameworks
for Climate Services
• Provide a vehicle for scientific coordination to synthesize the state
of the climate at national level, and distill climate knowledge
outputs for policy makers’ action founded on scientific evidence
• Provide a Medium for enhancing the contribution of climate
science to the development of National Adaptation Plans, and
further clarify what is being adapted to across all the climate-
sensitive sectors of the national economy
• Provide an Operational bridge between climate research actors
and institutions in charge of operational climate services delivery
at national level, to increase collaborative climate research
towards more salient and user-driven climate research outputs
• An opportunity to Bridge the gap between available climate
science and user needs at national, sub-national and local levels.Progress of GFCS Implementation in the
Sahel
Niger Burkina Faso Mali Senegal Chad Cameroon Cote d’Ivoire
NAP developed NAP developed & NAPdeveloped & NAP developed, & NAP developed, & NAP developed & NAP developed &
& Endorsed on Endorsed on April Endorsed on April Endorsed on May Endorsed on pre-Endorsed on pre-Endorsed on
December 2015, 2016, 14-15 2016, 28-29 2016, 19 October 2016, 4 October 2016, 6-7 July 2016, 19-21
22-23
CS needs of 6 CS needs of 6 CS needs of 6 priority CS needs of 7 CS needs of 6 CS needs of 6 CS needs of 6
priority sectors priority sectors sectors identified priority sectors priority sectors priority sectors priority sectors
identified identified identified identified identified identified
Taskforce on CS Inter-agency UN Inter-agency UN Inter-agency UN Exiting DRR Working Set up of Inter- Set up of Inter-
established Taskforce on CS Taskforce on CS Taskforce on CS Group incorporated agency UN agency UN
being established proposed proposed Climate Service Taskforce on CS to Taskforce on CS to
be explored be explored
NFCS Launch by NFCS Launch by end NFCS Launch by end NFCS Launch by end Decree for NFCS NFCS Launch by end NFCS Launch by end
end 2016 with 2016 with decree 2016 2016 with decree creation in draft 2016 2016
decree signature signature Decree for NFCS signature Decree for NFCS Decree for NFCS
creation drafted creation drafted creation draftedProgress of GFCS Implementation in the
Southern Africa
Madagascar Malawi South Africa Tanzania
National Consultation held National Consultation held National Consultation held National Consultation held
in June 2015 June 2014 August 2013 May 2014
Strategic Plan for 2016- In the process of National Action Plan near
2019 Developed development of Action Plan Completion
and National Framework
NFCS established by Decree NFCS Launch by end 2016 NFCS developed & to be NFCS endorsed by TANDREC
in June 2016 with decree signature launched early 2017 in OctoberImplementation Update: Tanzania &
Malawi
• GFCS Adaptation Program in Africa (2014 – 2016)
• Total budget of USD 10m, funded by the Norwegian Ministry
of Foreign Affairs (Tanzania and Malawi)
• Aim: increase the resilience of people most vulnerable to the
impacts of weather and climate-related hazards
• Target Sectors: Agriculture & Food Security, Health, DRR
• Multi-agency research to operations program: CCAFS,
CICERO, CMI, IFRC, WFP, WHO & WMO (lead agency).
• First time these agencies work together to deliver Climate
Services –much learning on how to achieve coordinated end-
to-end climate services delivery. Up Scaling now remainsTechnical support through deployments • Establishment of GFCS Coordination Office in Dakar – Roving expert to support country level implementation • Deployment of experts at regional level – Two experts deployed at ICPAC services – One expert deployed at ACMAD • Deployment of experts at national level – Expert deployed in Niger, Burkina Faso – Senegal, Tanzania and Malawi - Next
The User Interface Platform
SO WE’RE
ABOUT TO START A NEW
What is needed?
PARADIGM. WE CALL IT WHAT DOES
“CLIMATE SERVICE” THAT MEAN?
Ability Providers Users Needs
SORRY, I’M NOT
PREPARED FOR
IN-DEPTH
QUESTIONSThe Process of Co-producing decision-
relevant climate information
ACCESS
PROVIDER USER
UNDERSTANDING APPROPRIATE
APPLICATION
Who is the issuer? Use of climate information for decision-
What are the options? making requires bringing together
organisations which in many cases
How should they be have little or no experience of working
together and do not have a well-
Presented? established understanding of each
other’s ways of working.Decision-making across timescales
• Begin planning and • Continue monitoring • Activate response
monitoring of forecasts
• Adjust plans • Instruction to
• Update contingency plans communities to
• Warn communities evacuate, if needed
• Sensitize communities
• Local preparation activities
• Enable early-warning
systems
Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get
Mark Twain
Weather • Climate • Water 19New trial user products:
onset prediction and monitoring
Probability of early Probability of Prediction is based
Early onset ‘onset’ late ‘onset’ on local time of
predicted most arrival of 20% of
likely long-term seasonal
average
Early onset
occurred
Greater Horn of Africa, short-rains season
2011 – 1 month lead time prediction
CSRP monitoring
product: Observed Assessment over retrospective cases
time of ‘onset‘ (in indicates forecast can discriminate
days difference from early/late onset in ~70% of cases
long-term average (Tanzania/Kenya)
Onset forecasts being trialled at
regional centres in East, West and
southern AfricaData or information?
Lessons Learned from activities in Africa
1. Effective delivery of climate service interventions
requires joint implementation, a common
Masterplan (i.e., the National Action Plans)
2. Coordination vaccuum: Incoherence in donor funding /
multiplicity of duplicate initiatives, most important barrier to
GCFS implementation at regional and national levels
Information, 1st step in Coordination > GFCS information go-to place
‘Spaces for coordination’ should be set up at the country/regional levels,
ensuring all relevant stakeholders are engaged and brought together
around a common agenda on Climate services
3. Give the Time for Change: Results at large scale & institutional
change will take time
– Target: horizon 2020 for frameworks to be self-sustainingLessons Learned from activities in Africa
1. To Achieve a Transformative Agenda > Donor coordination,
Common Climate Services Delivery Framework fundamental
– vital role of GFCS PAC to bring together agencies and funding streams from
global to national levels
– the Interagency taskforce, space for coordination on CS at national level
2. Investing in the right capacity at the right place will make the
difference at this inception phase of the GFCS in Africa -NORCAP
mechanism; additional deployments for:
1. Additional Gap Bridgers and Dot Connectors needed
2. Support to develop/implement communication strategy on CSs
3. Support to understand factors of user uptake of CSs @local level
3. Ensure buy-in of all stakeholders into the National Action
Planning Process, Common Delivery Plan on Climate Services
4. Empower the user interface platforms, key to sustainable
delivery of user-tailored services (e.g., the GTPs)Thank you for your attention
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