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Global LPG Markets & Outlook for Africa - LPG Consulting - ARDA | African Refiners ...
April 2021

Global LPG Markets & Outlook for Africa

                                                                      Market Reporting
LPG
                                                                        Consulting
LPG
illuminating      the markets
illuminating the markets
                                Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group.
                                          All rights reserved                   Events
Global LPG Markets & Outlook for Africa - LPG Consulting - ARDA | African Refiners ...
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LPG                                                                                                       Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group.                                                                                                              2
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Global LPG Markets & Outlook for Africa - LPG Consulting - ARDA | African Refiners ...
1       Global scene-setting: Supply, demand, trade

           2       Africa: Market context and outlook

           3       Conclusions

           4       LPG pricing in Africa

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Global LPG Markets & Outlook for Africa - LPG Consulting - ARDA | African Refiners ...
LPG is primarily consumed in the residential and petrochemical sectors

LPG demand by sector, 2019

                                                                                               Residential demand is broadly
                                                                                              characterized as heating in cold
                                                                                              developed countries and cooking in warm
                                                                                              developing countries
                                                                         Residential
                             34%                                                              Non-energy – LPG is a key petrochemical
                                                                         Agricultural         feedstock and a component of other oil
                                                       40%
                                                                         Industrial           products
                                                                         Commercial
                                                                                              Industrial/Commercial – use in either
                                                                         Transport
                                                                                              industrial processes in off gas-grid
                                                                         Refinery fuel        settings, and hotels/restaurants
                                                                         Non-energy
                                                                                              Transport – LPG is third most common
                                                                                              road transport fuel globally, after gasoline
                        2%
                                   9%             1%                                          and diesel
                                             7%
                                        7%

                                                                         — Argus Consulting

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Global LPG Markets & Outlook for Africa - LPG Consulting - ARDA | African Refiners ...
Covid-19 had a significant impact on demand patterns over the course of
2020
Petrochemical ▪ Covid-19 impacted the petrochemical sector by affecting feedstock prices and altering downstream demand patterns. In March/April,
                the price of propane soared relative to that of naphtha. This was due to the relative stable demand for propane and the colla pse of
                demand for naphtha, but has since stabilised
              ▪ Demand for co-products which go into packaging and PPE have been in high demand; co-products used heavily in, for example, tires
                have seen demand fall sharply and recover slowly. Downstream demand is impacting feedstock choice

  Residential     ▪ The immediate impact of Covid-19 on the residential sector was quite chaotic
                  ▪ China’s lockdown in February initially resulted in a fall in residential consumption. This was coupled with supply issues particularly in
                    rural areas as movement between areas was curtailed, impacting deliveries
                  ▪ On the other hand, the lockdown in India caused a well-reported surge of imports as it was coupled with lower refining runs
                  ▪ Overall, demand in most markets exceeded what would have been expected pre-Covid-19

   Transport      ▪ The large autogas markets have handled the Covid-19 outbreak differently from weeks-long lockdowns in Italy (now being repeated) to
                    no lockdown due to rigorous testing and tracing in South Korea. As a consequence, the impact on these markets has been different
                  ▪ Probably most impacted has been Italy, where autogas demand was down more than 20pc in 2020. A similar impact was seen in Turkey
                    and Poland, but autogas demand actually increased slightly in Ukraine, albeit at a slower rate than in previous years

  Industrial/
 Commercial       ▪ The impact of Covid-19 is forecast to be negative for both the industrial and commercial sectors, but of different severities
                  ▪ Consumption of LPG in industry is largely tied to the overall state of the economy and so a global recession will dampen dema nd from
                    this sector.
                  ▪ The commercial sector is forecast to have a more sizeable drop in demand given it is frequently used in off-grid accommodation, cafes,
                    caravans, etc.

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Global LPG Markets & Outlook for Africa - LPG Consulting - ARDA | African Refiners ...
Trade flows continue to evolve as exporters compete for markets

  Canadian exports in 2020 vs 2019:                     Key flows into Europe in 2020:
  3.8mn t USA (down from 4.9mn t in 2019)               5.3mn t from the US (up from 4.2mn t in 2019)
  206kt to Mexico (down from 745kt)                     3.4mn t from N. Africa (steady at 3.5mn t)
  456kt to Japan (up from 328kt)                        1.1mn t from Russia (down from 2.0mn t)
  45kt to China (up from 0)
  22kt to Korea (up from 0)

                                                                                                        Middle East exports to Asia in 2020:
                                                                                                        11.0mn t to China (down from 12.9mn t in 2019)
                                                                                                        14.8mn t to India (up from 13.7mn t)
                                                                                                        3.5mn t to Indonesia (up from 2.7mn t)
                                                                                                        1.2mn t t to Japan (down from 1.7mn t)
  US exports to Asia in 2020:
  12.5mn t to Japan (up from 9.9mn t in 2019)
  3.9mn t t to S. Korea (up from 3.7mn t)
  4.2mn t to China (up from 277kt)
  2.9mn t to Indonesia (up from 1.9mn t)
  634kt to India (up from 422kt)                US exports to Latin America in 2020:
                                                5.1mn to Mexico (up from 4.4 mn t in 2019)
                                                1.7mn t to Brazil (up from 1.3mn t)
                                                972kt to Chile (up from 870kt)
                                                1.1kt to Dominican Republic (down from 1.4mn t)
                                                                                                                                         — GTT; Argus Consulting

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Looking forward over the next 24 months, the outlook is positive

                                                   ▸ Gradual recovery in transport,
                                                   industrial and commercial sectors
      ▸ Small decline forecast in
                                                   ▸ Demand for LPG in the petrochemical                                                                ▸ Strong growth in supply in
      2021, pushing production back
                                                   sector supportive                                                                                    2021 from both gas processing
      to 2019 levels; growth is
      expected again in 2022                       ▸ Whilst refinery production is forecast                                                             and refineries
      ▸ Demand supported by
                                                   to recover slightly in 2021, it is not                                                               ▸ Growing demand, particularly
                                                   expected to return to pre-Covid levels                                                               for Autogas in 2021 and 2022
      petrochemical sector
      ▸ Plenty of product still
                                                   again
                                                                                                                                                        ▸ More volumes available for
      available for export                                                                                                                              export

                                                                                                                                                            ▸ Refinery production continues
                                                                                                                                                            to expand
             ▸   Commercial, industrial,                                                                                                                    ▸ Gradual recovery forecast for
               transport demand to recover
               over 2021 and 2022                          ▸  Demand is primarily from the           ▸  Significant new production in 2021 and 2022 –       commercial and transport
                                                                                                                                                            demand over 2021 and 2022
                                                                                                      both from refining and gas processing
             ▸   Growth continues in the                    residential sector, though per
                                                                                                                                                            ▸
               residential sector, especially in            capita levels remain very low in         ▸   Increased demand from petchem sector                 Petrochemical sector
                                                                                                                                                            continues rapid growth
               smaller, still developing markets            most markets                             ▸   More volumes available for export
             ▸   Reliance on imports to                    ▸  Increased production from
               increase                                     Nigeria forecast, primarily from
                                                            gas processing

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The US and Middle East are forecast to remain the drivers of global supply

LPG supply by region 2010-2040, mn t
                                                                                                                     Africa: We are generally bearish on new supply coming to market from
             Africa production         Latin America production   Russia & FSU production                            Africa, particularly given investment plans and turmoil at Sonatrach. We
             Asia production           Middle East production                                                        do forecast increased supply from Nigeria’s gas production but only a
400
             Europe production         North America production                                                      minimal boost from the commissioning of the Dangote refinery
                                                                                                                     Asia Pacific: The impact of Covid-19 will be felt primarily in 2020 as
350                                                                                                                  refiners cut their runs. A number of new refining projects are forecast to
                                                                                                                     come online through the medium-term
300                                                                                                                  Europe: In Europe, production is primarily from the refining sector, which
                                                                                                                     is forecast to decline in 2020 and we do not forecast this supply
                                                                                                                     recovering to 2019 levels. A number of closures/conversions announced
250                                                                                                                  Latin America: The region’s production fell in 2020 as refiners curtailed
                                                                                                                     operations. Over the medium-term, moderate growth is forecast
200                                                                                                                  Middle East: Production increases are forecast to be steady and across a
                                                                                                                     wide range of countries including Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi
                                                                                                                     Arabia. Refinery additions in Iran and Saudi Arabia also add further supply
150                                                                                                                  to the region’s balance.
                                                                                                                     North America: US supply has risen despite the market turmoil, defying
100                                                                                                                  our expectations. We forecast supply to continue to expand but market
                                                                                                                     and political forces have made us more bearish.
                                                                                                                     Russia and FSU: Continued expansion of the region’s gas processing
 50                                                                                                                  capacity will sustain increases in LPG production. In 2021, supply from
                                                                                                                     Azerbaijan is forecast to add nearly 1mn t/yr to the region’s output
  0
          2010           2015              2020           2025        2030            2035            2040

                                                                                                — Argus Consulting

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Asia will remain the dominant consumer
LPG demand by region 2010-2040, mn t                                                                               Africa: The continent is gradually seeing demand shift from the large markets
                                                                                                                   of northern Africa to a diverse set of smaller markets. 2020 saw large
            Africa consumption         Latin America consumption   Russia & FSU consumption
                                                                                                                   increases in demand in Nigeria and Kenya. Development of any or many of
            Asia consumption           Middle East consumption
400                                                                                                                these markets has the potential to shift trade and support investment
            Europe consumption         North America consumption
                                                                                                                   Asia Pacific: Residential and petrochemical demand held up in 2020 and just
                                                                                                                   made up for the fall in the industrial, commercial and autogas sectors. Over
350                                                                                                                the medium-term, demand in the residential demand and petrochemical
                                                                                                                   sectors will drive growth in the region. Our forecast includes a number of PDH
                                                                                                                   plants under construction in China with five slated to come online in 2021.
300
                                                                                                                   Europe: In Europe, the traditional residential and autogas markets are slowly
                                                                                                                   declining though there are still pockets of growth (for example, autogas in
250                                                                                                                Ukraine). The petrochemical market has been the biggest source of demand
                                                                                                                   though this can be variable depending on price signals. PDH plants in Poland
                                                                                                                   and Belgium support demand.
200
                                                                                                                   Latin America: The Latin American market is forecast to continue growing
                                                                                                                   steadily, supported by sizeable residential demand. We are monitoring
150                                                                                                                developments in Colombia where the government has passed regulations
                                                                                                                   designed to promote the development of an autogas market
                                                                                                                   Middle East: In the Middle East, a large petrochemical sector and cheap local
100
                                                                                                                   feedstocks supports demand. New projects are forecast in Kuwait and UAE.
                                                                                                                   North America: As energy usage falls, petrochemical demand is increasing
 50                                                                                                                gradually as new plants are completed in Canada and the US.
                                                                                                                   Russia and Central Asia: Russia developing a number of petrochemical
  0                                                                                                                alongside gas projects, which is already impacting export availability.
          2010          2015             2020           2025       2030            2035             2040

                                                                                              — Argus Consulting

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1       Global scene-setting: Supply, demand, trade

           2       Africa: Market context and outlook

           3       Conclusions

           4       LPG pricing in Africa

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Africa is really two markets: a small number of large markets in the north…

                                                                                                                                            ▪ North Africa includes: Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia,
North African LPG supply / demand balance, 2010-2040                                                                                          Libya, and Egypt

 14,000
                                                                                                                                            ▪ All of these countries, with the exception of
                                                                                                                                              Morocco, produces LPG with Egypt and Algeria
 12,000
                                                                                                                                              producing significant volumes

                                                                                                                                            ▪ These are also all large consuming markets with
 10,000
                                                                                                                                              the highest level of residential demand per
                                                                                                                                              capita of any region in the world
  8,000
                                                                                                                                                   ▪ In Morocco, residential demand stands
                                                                                                                                                     at 66kg per person
                                                                                                                                                   ▪ In Egypt, where per capita consumption
  6,000                                                                                                                                              is the lowest, it still stands at over 28kg
                                                                                                                                                     per person

  4,000
                                                                                                                                            ▪ The region is a major source of exports,
                                                                                                                                              primarily sending volumes across the
                                                                                                                                              Mediterranean into Italy, France, and Turkey
  2,000

      0
          2010             2015                  2020            2025                     2030                  2035              2040

                                  North African supply   North African demand           North African balance

                                                                                                                       — Argus Consulting

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…And a large number of much smaller markets in sub-Saharan African

                                                                                                                                              ▪ Key producers in sub-Saharan Africa include
Sub-Saharan Africa LPG supply / demand balance, 2010-2040                                                                                       Nigeria, Angola, South Africa, and Sudan

 10,000
                                                                                                                                              ▪ Nearly 60pc of the region’s production is from
                                                                                                                                                Nigeria’s gas processing plants
  8,000

                                                                                                                                              ▪ The most significant addition to supply is
                                                                                                                                                forecast to come from the completion of
  6,000
                                                                                                                                                Nigeria’s Dangote refinery and Angola’s gas
                                                                                                                                                sector
  4,000
                                                                                                                                              ▪ Whilst production is relatively concentrated in a
                                                                                                                                                few countries, demand in the region is wide
  2,000                                                                                                                                         spread

      0
                                                                                                                                              ▪ Nigeria has the highest level of demand, but
                                                                                                                                                represents just over 20pc of the region’s total
                                                                                                                                                consumption
 -2,000
                                                                                                                                              ▪ Whilst our forecast assumes growth in the
                                                                                                                                                country’s residential sector over the forecast
 -4,000                                                                                                                                         period, we note that there is significant upside
          2010             2015                    2020              2025                  2030                   2035             2040         to this forecast. This is explored in a later
                           Sub-Saharan Africa supply      Sub-Saharan Africa demand         Sub-Saharan Africa balance                          section of this report
                                                                                                                         — Argus Consulting

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Per capita usage looks quite different between the two regions

Per capita usage in Africa, 2020 (Est.)                        ▪ LPG is used in the residential sector much more intensely in some parts of Africa versus other parts

                                                               ▪ In Morocco, per capita usage exceeds 60kg per person. A number of factors support this high usage:
                                                                     ▪ The fuel is subsidized
                                                                     ▪ There is sufficient infrastructure to import the fuel and distribute it
                                                                     ▪ The population has infrastructure at home to use the fuel

                                                               ▪ In many other African markets, residential usage is far lower
                                                                     ▪ In Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Uganda, with a combined population of 200mn, per capita usage is less than
                                                                        1.5kg/person

                                                               ▪ In a number of markets, the government and private enterprise is supporting the development of the
                                                                 residential market

                                                               ▪ If these efforts are successful, then there is significant upside to the demand outlook

                                          — Argus Consulting

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What holds residential demand for LPG back?
                  High prices
                  • The main alternative to LPG is firewood which can be purchased in small amounts, enough for one day, and requires no special infrastructure to burn. LPG
                    cylinders cost more as consumers need to buy several days worth of gas at once. In some markets you need to buy your own cylinder to fill or pay a deposit to
                    take one
                  • Subsidies are used in some countries to lower the price to consumers and/or make them more stable than the would otherwise be. In Morocco, for example,
                    prices are fixed at 3,333MAD (approximately $370 in March 2021) regardless of the price paid by importers. This can strain national budgets
                  Infrastructure to import
                  • Infrastructure to import LPG is limited in most parts of the continent, but in sub-Saharan Africa in particular
                  • In Morocco, the African market with the most well-developed infrastructure 240,000t of storage supports 2.7mn t of demand annually
                  • The lack of infrastructure impedes market development as it means importers cannot buy opportunistically, they are limited to buying on smaller ships, and
                    the supply chain is less secure if, for example, companies cannot store much stock and a ship is delayed coming in

                  Infrastructure to distribute
                  • Inland distribution is a further problem as the limited infrastructure for LPG tends to be concentrated on the coast and in large cities
                  • In Morocco, there are 30-40 filling plants in operation and facilities are available outside of the largest cities; in Kenya, filling plants are limited to urban areas
                    of Mombasa, Nairobi, Kisumu, and Eldoret

                  Infrastructure in the home
                  • The cost of a gas stove can be prohibitive. One study found the cost of the stove and canister was equal to half the average monthly income in Tanzania,
                    presenting a significant obstacle to take up
                  • In a number of markets, companies are experimenting with providing the canister & stove for a small deposit and then charging consumers for gas usage on an
                    ongoing basis (pay-as-you-go). This helps get around the initial hurdle of needing to buy a canister, fuel, and stove before a household is able to cook one
                    meals. Internet-of-things and mobile payments make this possible

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Further investment in Africa’s LPG storage capacity would support market
growth
New and under development terminals in Africa                                              There are a number of new terminals recently opened or soon to open in Africa.

                                                                                           Further investment is needed to improve the continent’s security of supply and lower prices by
                                                                                           allowing importers to buy larger cargos and take advantages of price swings.

                                                                                           Nigeria
                                                                                           ▪ 2020: 8,400t facility at Apapa port and 8,000t at Ijegun (both Lagos- area)
                                                                                           ▪ 2021: 5,000t in Lagos and 6,000t in Delta region

                                                                                           Ivory Coast
                                                                                           ▪  2021/2022: Two-phase project adding 12kt of storage in Abidjan

                                                                                           South Africa
                                                                                           ▪ 2020: 22,600t at Richard’s Bay

                                                Note: Project list is not exhaustive

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If market potential is unlocked, demand would be substantial

Nigeria demand if per capita increased to average of North Africa, mn t                                                    ▪ In 2020, the per capita average of LPG use of North African
14                                                                                                                           countries was just over 40kg per person
                                                                                                                     14
              Demand actual                                                                                                       ▪ Egypt represents the low at 28.4kg/person and Morocco has
13            Demand forecast under current assumptions                                                                             the highest per capita usage at 66kg
12            Demand forecast on path to North Africa average
                                                                                                                           ▪ The graph on the left shows Argus’ current demand forecast versus
11                                                                                                                           a scenario in which Nigeria’s demand gradually reached the average
                                                                                                                             level of North Africa
10                                                                                                 10
                                        Government has                                                                     ▪ Based on Nigeria’s high population growth and a near 8-fold
  9                                  announced ambitions for                                                                 increase of per capita usage, this would lead to a market size
  8                                   market size of 5mn t by                                                                approaching 14mn t/yr by 2040
                                               2030
  7                                                                                                                        ▪ Such a market would require significant investment and alter global
                                                                                 6                                           trading patters
  6
                                                                                                                                  ▪ Investment would be required in import terminals, storage,
  5                                                                                                                                  bottling plants, and cylinders
                                                                                                                                  ▪ The country would need to build capacity at the port to
  4                                                                                                             3                    handle much larger ships including VLGCs
                                                                3
  3                                                                                           3                                   ▪ Government regulation would be required to guarantee
                                                                           2                                                         things such as cylinder certification
  2                                                        2                                                                      ▪ Trade patterns would emerge with this market likely being
                                       1                                                                                             served by North American supply
  1                                                                                                                               ▪ As security in the region is also an issue, then this would
        0               0
  0                                                                                                                                  also need to be addressed before such a market would
            2010            2015           2020          2025             2030              2035              2040                   develop
                                                                                                    — Argus Consulting

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Where would the supply needed to meet this demand come from?

                                                                                                                      ▸ Continued investment in the
 ▸  Already major exporter with                                                                                       upstream
  significant investment in                                                                                           ▸ More volumes available for
  export terminals and logistics                                                                                      export
 ▸ Falling demand in local                                                                                            ▸ Traditionally a supplier into
  market                                                                                                              Europe, now expanding routes
 ▸  Volumes available for export                                                                                      into Asia
  forecast to increase
 ▸  Lots of competition for
  exports: can serve Asia, Africa,
  Europe, and Latin America

                                                                 ▸   The expected windown of OPEC restraint
                                                                   should see higher levels of production in short-
                                                                   term
                                                                 ▸   Long-term supply growth based on high
                                                                   levels of reserves, low cost of production and a
                                                                   desire to get the molecules out of the ground
                                                                   and on to the market
                                                                 ▸   Increased demand from petchem sector
                                                                 ▸   More volumes available for export

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US exports to Africa have been increasing
                                LPG flows from the US into Africa, 2019 to 2020

                                                                                                                     Some falls in export volumes as well:
                                                                                                                     ▸ Togo
                                                                                                                     ▸ Egypt
US exports to Morocco:                                                                                               ▸ Ghana
Increased from 705kt to 744kt

US exports to Senegal:
Increased from 32kt to 175kt
US exports to Nigeria:
Increased from 181kt to 358kt                                                                                           US exports to Tanzania:
                                                                                                                        Increased from 0kt to 340kt
                                                                                                                    US exports to Kenya:
                                                                                                                    Increased from 37kt to 177kt

                                                                                                                US exports to South Africa:
                                                                                                                Increased from 139kt to 309kt

                                                                                  Note: GTT; Argus Consulting

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1       Global scene-setting: Supply, demand, trade

           2       Africa: Market context and outlook

           3       Conclusions

           4       LPG pricing in Africa

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Looking forward
 Outlook                                                                              ▪ Factors to watch
 ▪ Demand in 2020 faced a variety of differing forces:                                ▪ Plans to unlock the factors along the supply chain which hold back
      ▪ Demand for LPG fell in the industrial, commercial, and                          growth:
        transport sectors as countries dealt with months of lockdowns                       ▪ Import terminals
        and lowered economic activity                                                       ▪ Bottling plants
      ▪ Petrochemical demand was higher in a number of countries,                           ▪ Distribution networks
        despite LPG’s relative high price                                                   ▪ In-home hardware
      ▪ Residential demand expanded across the globe
                                                                                      ▪ Developments in potential sources of supply
                                                                                           ▪ Production in the US is quite responsive to market prices and
 ▪ Markets in Africa continued to grow through this period of tumult                          sentiment
   with Nigeria topping 1mn t of demand for the first time                                 ▪ Decisions by OPEC/OPEC+ to restrain production
                                                                                           ▪ Investment appetite in Russia
 ▪ A number of infrastructure projects have been commissioned or will                      ▪ Developments within Africa may also widen the sources of
   soon be                                                                                    supply

 ▪ If government and private-sector plans to foster broader, deeper                   ▪ Consumers competing for these sources are numerous but some of
   penetration of LPG come to pass, market growth would be                              the most important are China's PDH and ethylene plants; in Europe,
   significant                                                                          the electrification of the transport network could free volumes
                                                                                        currently being consumed there
 ▪ This market growth would support further investment in
   infrastructure
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1       Global scene-setting: Supply, demand, trade

           2       Africa: Market context and outlook

           3       Conclusions

           4       LPG pricing in Africa

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LPG trade - Africa sits amid the key flows

                                             Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group. All rights reserved.
African LPG prices
• Combining source market prices and freight
• Intended to reflect real-world costs
• Forerunners to trade-based indices

                                               Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group. All rights reserved.
Africa LPG indexes – sources and destinations

                                 ARA

    Houston
                                               Ras Tanura

                                   Argus West Africa
                                   Propane & Butane
                                     Indexes, Lagos

                                Argus East Africa
                                   LPG Index,
                                   Mombasa

                             Argus South
                           Africa LPG Index,           Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group. All rights reserved.
                             Richards Bay
Final thoughts
•    LPG consumption is growing strongly in Africa, bringing health,
     environmental and economic benefits. Fair and transparent
     pricing is key to sustaining this trend.

•    Traditional pricing structures based on the Middle East are a
     reasonable import parity proxy, but nowadays product is coming
     from further afield – particularly the US.

•    Argus is keen to develop trade-based indexes for Africa’s regional
     markets – please contact us if you wish to discuss in more detail.

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Argus LPG Consulting                                                                                                           Argus Market Reporting
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Principal, Argus Consulting                                                                                                        VP Crude & African Markets
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illuminating the markets                                                                                            All rights reserved
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