Fertilizers - GPCA Fertilizer Convention

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Fertilizers - GPCA Fertilizer Convention
September 2019

Mapping fertilizer trends in major producing regions
Oliver Hatfield, VP Business Development, Argus Media Ltd

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Analytics key content
                      Key content                                                                 New
                                     Published Methodology:
    Price forecast                   -15yr cyclical and reversion forecast updated quarterly
                                     -25yr LRMC forecast updated annually

    S&D analysis for major markets   Demand Forecasts derived from an Agricultural Model

    Assessment of new capacity       Project Screening to filter out future capacity

    Cost analysis                    Full Cost curve updated quarterly or annually (depending on product)

    Frequency of Updates             4 Quarterly updates + 1 Annual spotlight

    Data available on Argus Direct   Front End included

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Presentation overview

 Mapping fertilizer trends in major producing regions

      • Recent developments and short to long term market analysis for:
         • Potash
         • Phosphate
         • Nitrogen
      • Focusing on regions and countries that move the supply balance

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Potash

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• We are still feeling the effects of the upturn in potash            • Geography of expansions is focused on Canada, Russia, Belarus and China.
  prices in 2008!                                                     • While there have been some new entrants, generally the supply
• New capacity has exceeded new demand since 2009.                      concentration has remained relatively high.
• Creation of spare capacity normally weakens the market.             • Oligopoly has meant pricing has been reasonably stable until recently.

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But we are starting to see the impact of the most recent expansions
Short-run MOP balance                                                                                                 Recent potash prices

     ‘000 t
1,500                    MOP balance                                               Forecast                Surplus
                                                                  1,327

1,000                                                                                             892

                   503
  500
                                                                                          301
                                                                          216     175
                                                          160
                            5                      34
    0

          -233
 -500

                                  -845
-1,000                                                                                                      Deficit

-1,500                                    -1,433
         Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020

 • 2018 was a strong demand year.                                                                                     •   Robust demand underlined a strong pick up in potash prices in 2018.
 • Q1 2019 was tight, but the balance shifted to equilibrium in mid-year.                                             •   But sentiment has softened in 2019.
 • As we look forwards, we’re moving in to a period of surplus supply.                                                •   Our expectations are for weaker market in the short term.
                                                                                                                      •   Key potash suppliers are adjusting capacity, looking for equilibrium.

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Supply
Key themes in mid-2019

                   Nutrien and Mosaic curtail MOP
                   supply as weak demand allows MOP
                   prices to fall; K+S follows

                   Bethune continues to face quality
                   issues, production ramps up,
                   maintenance planned

                   SQM continues to focus on lithium

                   China ramps up pressure in SOP
                   market

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MOP capacity forecast to 2024: Includes firm and probable MOP projects
MOP Capacity Forecast

    Million t
                                                                                                                                                Bolivia
   3.0                                                                     2.8                            2.8                                   China + Laos
                                                                                              2.7
                                                                                                                                                Jordan
   2.5                                                                                                                                          Spain
                                                                                                                                                Turkmenisatan
                            2.0                                                                                                     Ø 2.2
   2.0                                     1.9                                                                           2.0                    Canada Greenfield
                                                          1.8
                                                                                                                                                Belarus Petrikov
                                                                                                                                                Canada Brownfield
   1.5          1.4
                                                                                                                                                Russia Greenfield
                                                                                                                                                Russia Brownfield
   1.0

                                                                                                                                      Capacity represents Argus’
   0.5                                                                                                                                assessment of operable
                                                                                                                                      capacity, rather than
   0.0                                                                                                                                design/nameplate capacity.
                2017       2018           2019           2020             2021               2022        2023           2024

• MOP incremental capacity addition run rate in recent years has been                • The biggest changes to capacity in 2019 are Belaruskali adding capacity
  around 2 million t/y.                                                                at Petrikov, and ongoing ramp up of Eurochem new mines.
• For the period between 2019 to 2024 this will increase to 2.4 million t/y.         • By 2021, we see brownfield expansions in Canada with Mosaic ramping
• Major recent projects in recent years were Bethune in Canada and two                 up Esterhazy K3, while K+S plans to increase production at Bethune (2nd
  Eurochem projects, which are gradually ramping up.                                   phase). Uralkali is also expanding capacity at Solikamsk 3
• Other small additions have been projects in China, Laos, Turkmenistan, by          • By 2023, we should see new capacity from Uralkali Ust-Yayvinksy starting
  APC in Jordan and YLB in Bolivia                                                     up. Nutrien is also planning substantial new brownfield capacity
                                                                                       expansion.

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Global Capacity Forecast: adjusting for mine closures
MOP Forecast Net Capacity

  Million y/t                                                                                                              Mine                   2018    2019   2020    2024
                                          2.8    2.7
    3                                                   2.6
                            1.9                                                                                            Sigmundshall           -900      0       0       0
    2       1.4
                                   1.0                               1.1         Ø 1.4                                     Picadilly             -2,000     0       0       0
    1
                                                                                         Capacity expansions
    0                                                                                                                      Boulby                -1,040     0       0       0
                                                                                         Closure: Germany (Sigmundshall)
   -1                                                                                    Closure: Canada (Picadilly)
                                                                                         Closure: UK (Boulby)              Vilafruns (Sallent)       0      0    -500       0
                    -2.1
   -2                                                                                    Closure: Spain (Sallent)
                                                                                                                           Taquari Vassouras         0      0       0    -625
   -3                                                                                    Closure: Brazil (Taquari)
                                                                                         Closure: Russia (Berezniki 2)
   -4                                                                                    Net capacity                      Berezniki 2            -200      0    -290    -410
   -5
           2017     2018    2019   2020   2021   2022   2023         2024                                                  Total                 -4,140     0    -790   -1,035

 • Substantial closures will to some extent offset the additional capacity outlined previously.
 • Nutrient announced the closure of it 2 million t/y Picadilly mine in Saskatchewan. However, it will have relatively minor
   commercial impact.
 • European closures have greater commercial impact in Spain, Germany and UK.
 • Note that this is based on committed capacity, it doesn’t capture losses of production due to commercial decisions, e.g.
   SQM.

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Significant ramp up in capacity, mostly in Russia

        mn t           EuroChem production                                                                                                                                                    ‘18-23
  5.5                  Usolskiy capacity                                                                             Uralkali             Russia         13,000   12,600   13,200   15,400       600
  5.0                  Volgakaliy capacity                                                                           EuroChem             Russia             0      400     5,300    7,500      4,900
  4.5
                                                                                                                     Belaruskali          Belarus        10,800   12,900   14,400   14,400      1,500
  4.0
  3.5                                                                                                                Turkmenhimya         Turkmenistan       0      300      650     1,300       350
  3.0                                                                                                                Uzkimyosanoat        Uzbekistan       200      600      600      600          0
  2.5                                                                                                                FSU nameplate capacity              24,000   26,800   34,150   39,200      7,350
  2.0
                                                                                                                     FSU production                      17,112   24,150   29,197   32,510      5,047
  1.5
  1.0                                                                                                                FSU op. rate                          71%      90%      85%      83%        -5%
  0.5                                                                                                                FSU demand                           2,220    2,026    2,199    2,370       173
  0.0                                                                                                                FSU S/D Balance                     21,780   22,124   26,998   30,140      4,874
                2018            2019             2020              2021          2022          2023

                                                                                                                      • The biggest change in capacity in this region in the next five years is
     mn t        Regional demand           Russian Production                                                           Eurochem’s potash investment.
   35            Others                    Belarusian Production                                                            • Usolskiy first phase produced 467kt in 1H 2019, FY target of 1.1
   30                                                                                                                         mt. Design capacity likely by 2021, upgrade possible by 2022.
   25                                                                                                                       • Usolskiy phase II underway, likely 2023. Capacity total = 4mt.
   20
                                                                                                                            • Volgakaliy more complicated. Assuming 2.3 mt by 2023, phase I;
                                                                                                                              phase II to follow.
   15
                                                                                                                      • We expect to see other project activity also from Acron and Slavkaliy,
   10                                                                                                                   which could be new entrants in this timeframe.
    5                                                                                                                 • FSU regional exportable surplus increasing from 22mn t to 30 mn t by
    0                                                                                                                   2028.
         2010                 2015                 2020                   2025          2030

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MOP capacity expansion in Canada will magnify the region’s exportable supply surplus
North American MOP balance                                                                                                     North America MOP Capacity Expansions/Closures

    Million t/y
    35                                                                                                                               Million t/y
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    45.9
                                                                                                                                     46
    30                                                                                                                                             Picadilly           Bethune
                                                                                                                                     44                                                                      43.5
    25                                                                                                                                             Nutrien Various     Esterhazy ramp up
                                                                                                                                     42            Jansen              Existing NAm capacity
    20
                                                                                                                                     40                                                               38.9
    15                                                                                                                                                                                         38.2
                                                                                                     Imports (Outside NAm)           38     37.0                                     36.7
    10                                                                                                                                                 33.9    36.1   35.9   36.3
                                                                                                     Exports (Outside NAm)           36
     5      9.6    11.3    10.5    11.1    10.7    10.8    10.9    11.0    11.1    11.5    11.8
                                                                                                     Production                      34
     0                                                                                               Apparent Demand
                                                                                                                                     32
     -5    -10.0   -11.5   -14.2   -13.6   -13.9   -13.9   -14.5   -14.9   -15.8                                                     30
    -10                                                                            -18.3
                                                                                           -22.1                                     28
    -15
                                                                                                                                      0
    -20                                                                                                                              -2
                                                                                                                                            2017      2018     2019   2020   2021    2022      2023   2024   2028   2033
    -25
           2016    2017    2018    2019    2020    2021    2022    2023    2024    2028    2033

•    Canadian potash capacity is predicted to continue to expand, resulting in an increasing exportable surplus.
•    Brownfield investment will result in 3 million t/y of capacity being added in the next 5 years.
•    The biggest increase is predicted to take place beyond 2024, with the emergence of BHP’s greenfield investment.
•    With some modest increase in regional demand, it means that the exportable surplus of potash capacity should increase by
     around 50%.

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Global MOP balance
Unprecedented MOP demand growth in 2018 helped absorb capacity additions but from 2019 a supply surplus builds y-o-y until 2024
MOP net balance

  Mn t                                    Cumulative net change          Inoperable
                                                                                                                                • Robust demand growth in 2017
  8                                       Net change                     Capacity closures                                        and 2018, combined with some
                                          Demand growth                  Capacity expansions
  7                                                                                                                               closures, led to a significant deficit
                                                                                                                   To surplus
  6                                                                                                                               and tightening of the market.
  5                                                                                                                             • We are already seeing that shift in
  4                                                                                                                               to reverse in 2H 2019. Demand
  3                                                                                                                               growth this year is expected to be
  2                                                                                                                               flat while capacity ramps up at
  1                                                                                                                               various new/recent projects.
  0                                                                                                                             • As we move forward, we will see a
 -1                                                                                                                               gradual and persistent supply
 -2                                                                                                                               surplus as the ramp up of new
 -3
                                                                                                                                  project activity, adjusted for
 -4
                                                                                                                                  closures, exceeds incremental
 -5
                                                                                                                                  demand growth.
                                                                                                                                • Will new entrant tonnes make
                                                                                                                   To deficit
 -6
         2015     2016     2017   2018   2019          2020       2021       2022            2023   2024
                                                                                                                                  pricing more competitive?

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Phosphate

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Global phosphates market is becoming increasingly
 regionalised

                                                                      Europe
                            Canada &                               dominated by
                           Latin America                            North African
                           dominated by                           and Russian DAP
                                 US

                                                                           Africa –                  Indian
                                                                        increasingly             subcontinent
                                       Brazil still globally            targeted by
                                          competitive                                            dominated by
                                          market but                      OCP and                Saudi Arabia
                                       Chinese influence               Saudi product
                                           in retreat                        (east                 and China
                                                                            coast)

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Chinese phosphates sector undergoing consolidation
       China becomes net DAP exporter in 2007
       But Chinese production is facing come challenges
              •   Zero growth in domestic fertilizer demand by 2020
              •   Permitting of rock mining tightened
              •   Ongoing environmental control
              •   DAP exporters facing increased competition
       Capacity additions are slowing due to the chronic DAP oversupply
       Market consolidation is happening:
              • Kailin-Wengfu merger was confirmed after a year of rumours
              • China's 2nd and 3rd largest producers overtaking YTH with 10mn t/yr of DAP/NPK capacity
       Likely future outcomes:
              •   Vertical integration encouraged
              •   Older, higher cost producers forced out of business
              •   Fewer participants remaining with higher utilisation
              •   Longer term capacity decline likely, but weighted against macro demands of China’s economy

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China DAP exports continue
                                   ‘t                                    Total China DAP exports in
                                                                           January-April 2017-19
                                   600,000

  • Weak domestic Chinese          500,000

    demand in 1Q19                 400,000                               Source: GTT

  • Suppliers look to meet
                                   300,000
    Indian DAP demand
  • China ships 1.3mn t in         200,000

    January-June 2019 to India –
                                   100,000
    up by 34%
                                         0
                                                          2017                            2018            2019

                                                                 January               February   March      April

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North America – horizontal consolidation
       Reason:                                                                   2005   • US Chem exits market

          • Phosphate rock reserves depleting and permitting                      2006   • Mosaic closes Green Bay plant
            is difficult
          • Environmental issues (Phosphogypsum)                                  2010   • Agrifos switches away from phosphates

                                                                                         • Mosaic acquires CF phosphate assets
                                                                                  2013
                                                                                         • PhosChem disbands
       Result:
          • Mosaic now owns 70pc of DAP/MAP/MES
                                                                                         • May: OCP agrees supply deal with PCS
            capacity                                                              2014
                                                                                         • December: MissPhos ceases production
          • Nutrien owns 20pc
                                                                                  2016   • PCS /Agrium merger– Nutrien formed

       Implications:                                                             2017   • Mosaic idles Plant City (1.8mn t/yr, mainly DAP)

          • Higher concentration
                                                                                  2019
          • New export strategy orientation/MWSPC                                        • Nutrien ceases MAP production at Redwater in
                                                                                           Canada, starts to convert unit to AS
          • DAP Tampa no longer international benchmark

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Capacity growth driven by Morocco and Saudi Arabia, timing is important
                                             OCP, Morocco                                                      Egypt
                                             DAP/MAP/NPS – JPH 3.4mn t/yr P2O5                                 Phosacid – NCIC (2019)– 360,000 t/yr P2O5
                                             DAP/MAP/TSP/DCP/MCP – SPH - 1mn t/yr P2O5                         Phosacid – Misr (2022)– 500,000 t/yr P2O5
                                             DAP/MAP - PhosBoucraa 330,000 t/yr P2O5

                                                                                                                                                              Kazphosphate, Kazakhstan
                                                                                                                                                              MAP - Taraz (+110,000 t/yr P2O5, 2018)
                                                     Nutrien, US                                                                                              NPK/DCP – Eurochem ( +250,000 t/yr P2O5
                                                     Geismar plant to close end-2018
                                                     (-200,000 t/yr P2O5)

                                                                                                                                                                 Kribhco/OCP JV, India
                                                                                                                                                                 DAP/NPK – 1.2mn t/yr - 2022

Nutrien, Canada
Redwater MAP plant conversion to AS - 2019
(-345,000 t/yr P2O5)

                                                                                                                                                                   China– Industry restructuring
                                                                                                                                                                   Argus assumed the closure of small inefficient plants
                                                                             Ma’aden, Saudi Arabia                                                                 Equivalent to -0.7mn t P2O5 PhosAcid
                                                                             DAP/MAP/NPS – Ma’aden 3 - +1.7 mn t/yr P2O5, ~2024
Mosaic, US – Plant City closure, -1mn t PhosAcid :
 • Lower operating costs and improve system-wide margins
                                                                                                                                                           JPMC, Indonesia
 • Reduce CAPEX requirements
                                                                                              China Molybdenum, Brazil                                     Pupuk Kaltim, Bontang (200,000 t/yr P2O5, 2019)
 • Serve own distribution business and other India customers
                                                                                              MAP/TSP - Catalao - +200,000 t/yr P2O5, 2020/21              Pupuk Sriwijaya (Pusri), Palembang (200,000 t/yr P2O5, 2020)
    with low-cost MWSPC JV
   Base Case assumes plant will not restart

                                                                             Yara, Brazil
                                                                             MAP/TSP - Galvani, Serra do Salitre (+180,000 t/yr P2O5, 2020/21)

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Nitrogen

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Global urea capacity forecast, 2018-2033
Argus is tracking 36.0 million t/y of new urea capacity; either at the construction stage or in feasibility

   Limited investment potential in         Global Capacity expansions
    Europe and the Americas. Instead
    capital is flowing to the following
    regions.
   Nigeria: Cheap gas priced at $1.50-
    2.00/MMBtu and cheap building costs
    are offsetting risk.
   India: Government is supplying cheap
    capital to offset imports and support
    the subsidy domestically.
   Russia Central Asia: Cheap gas
    $0.50-3.50/MMBtu is providing a
    steady stream of projects.
   SE Asia: Stranded gas in Brunei and
    Australia is seeking monetisation.
   Iran and Egypt: Government backed
    building to support local economy
                                              Forecast capacity expansions
                                              Possible capacity expansions
                                              Speculative capacity expansions

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Global urea capacity forecast, 2018-2024
                              mn t/y
                             7.5
                                                            Pro-rated urea capacity forecast

                                                                                                          Americas   Middle East
• Basis for inclusion in                                                                                  CIS        Africa
  our firm listing in this                                                                                SE Asia    South Asia
  timeframe is projects      5.0
  which are financed,
  received all required
  permits and have
  begun construction.
  Projects undergoing
  feasibility are
                                                                                                                                          2.6
  excluded, as are those     2.5
  without LT gas supply.

                             0.0
                                       2015   2016   2017         2018            2019      2020   2021      2022       2023       2024

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Dramatic expansion of West African urea supply will expand continent’s exportable supply surplus

• Three new trains in Nigeria will add close to 6 million t/y of capacity.                                                                mn t/y
     • The Dangote project recently signed a new gas supply contract with Chevron, though                                                18

        still some questions.
                                                                                                                                                     Production
                                                                                                                                         16

     • Eleme project understood to be on track.                                                                                          14
                                                                                                                                         12
• Regional demand expected to grow, but exportable surplus set to grow substantially.                                                    10

• The NCIC project is not yet firm, but seems likely to progress. Egypt gas situation is greatly                                          8

  improved.
                                                                                                                                          6
                                                                                                                                          4
• Elsewhere, capacity in Algeria has stabilised, operations at around 90% utilization. Exports                                            2

  of 3.2 million t in 2018 likely will be repeated in 2019.                                                                               0
                                                                                                                                              2010     2015       2020   2025        2030

                                                                                                                                           mn t
                                                                                                                                         18
                      2010   2015   2018   2025    ‘18-25                                                                                                                      Exportable
                                                                                                                                         16                                     surplus
Egypt                  5.1    5.9    6.8    7.3      +0.5                                                                 Jul-                                                    Production
                                                                                                  Kima II       Egypt             520    14
Algeria                0.0    3.0    3.4    3.4      +0.0                                                                  19
                                                                                                                                         12
Nigeria                0.3    0.3    1.7    6.0      +4.3                                                                 Jul-
                                                                                                  Dangote I     Nigeria          1,271   10
                                                                                                                           21
Libya                  0.9    0.9    0.9    0.9      +0.0                                                                                 8
                                                                                                                          Jul-
African capacity       6.4   10.2   12.8   17.7      +4.9                                         Dangote II    Nigeria          1,271
                                                                                                                           22             6
Technical surplus      4.0    7.7   10.1   14.3      +4.2                                                                 Jul-            4
                                                                                                  Eleme II      Nigeria          1,400
                                                                                                                           22             2
African production     5.8    4.8   11.4   15.6      +4.2    Existing
African op. rate      91%    47%    89%    88%        -1%    Expansion                                                                    0
                                                                                                                                              2010     2015       2020   2025      2030
                                                             Possible/Spec.                                               Jul-
African S/D Balance    3.4    2.2    8.7   12.2      +3.5                                         NCIC          Egypt             380
                                                                                                                           23

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Barauni has been connected to the Indian gas network

• We added the HURL project at Barauni to our list of firm projects, after progress on gas
  supply.
                                                                                                                                               mn t/y
                                                                                                                                              50                           Production

• This raises our expectations of firm new Indian urea capacity to 4 projects, adding 5 million                                                                            Capacity: Bangladesh

  t/y. Indian urea capacity would reach 30 million t/y.
                                                                                                                                              40

• Two other projects are considered speculative at Talcher (coal-gasification) and in                                                         30

  Bangladesh.                                                                                                                                 20

• Collectively, firm project activity would reduce the regional urea import requirement from                                                  10

  nearly 13 million tonnes in 2015 to just over 5 million t/y.                                                                                 0

                                                                                                                                                    2010

                                                                                                                                                            2015

                                                                                                                                                                    2020

                                                                                                                                                                             2025

                                                                                                                                                                                        2030
                                                                                                                                                mn t
                       2010   2015    2018   2025    ‘18-25                                                                                  50

India                  23.0   24.0    24.0   30.4      +6.4                                      Ramagundam India            Mar-20   1,271
                                                                                                                                              40
Pakistan                4.6    6.3     6.3    6.3      +0.0                                      Matix Fert.   India         Oct-20   1,271
Bangladesh              3.0    3.0     3.5    3.5      +0.0                                      Gorakhpur     India         Mar-22   1,271   30
Afghanistan             0.1    0.1     0.1    0.1      +0.0                                      Barauni       India         Dec-22   1,271
Other South Asia        0.0    0.0     0.0    0.0      +0.0                                      Total firm                           5,082   20
S. Asian capacity      30.7   33.4    33.9   40.3      +6.4                                      Sindri        India         Jul-23   1,271
Technical surplus      -6.5    -9.4   -6.1   -1.3      +4.9                                      Talcher       India         Jul-23   1,271   10

S. Asian production    28.3   30.5    30.6   36.7      +6.1    Existing                          Polash        Bangladesh    Jul-24    924
                                                               Expansion                                                                       0
S. Asian op. rate      92%    91%     90%    91%       +1%                                       Total speculative                    3,465        2010    2015    2020    2025     2030
                                                               Speculative
S. Asian S/D Balance   -9.2   -12.8   -9.7   -5.3      +4.4                                      Total: Firm + Speculative            8,547

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Chinese urea output has increased with gas availability
Chinese urea capacity is forecast to stabilise between 65-70 million t/y over the medium term

                                                            Chinese urea plant closures                                              Chinese capacity, 2010-33
1.       Capacity closure rate is slowing, but for now      mn t/y                                                                    mn t/y
         we are still seeing net decrease in capacity.      6                                                                        90
                                                                         5.3
                                                                                                                                     80
2.       Operating rates have improved towards                                          4.5          4.5                             70
         80%, while higher gas availability means           4                                                         3.8            60
         more production over the winter.                                                                                            50
                                                                                                                                     40                     Production
3.       Urea production up ~2.0 mn t this year…            2                                                                        30                     Consumption
                                                                                                                                     20
4.       …and we are seeing this increment being                                                                                                                                  Chinese capacity
                                                                                                                                     10
         passed into the export market.
                                                            0                                                                         0
                                                                        2016           2017          2018         2019                    2010      2015      2020         2025          2030

 Chinese Capacity Expansions                                Chinese urea production, 2017-19                                         Chinese urea production, 2017-19
                                                            mn t/m                                                          mn t/y   mn t
     Name            Country          Start      Capacity
                                                            10                                                                  55   14
                                                                                                                                                                                                 2015
     Erdos Wulan     In. Mongolia    Sep-19         1,200                                                                            12
                                                                                       Annualised production                    54
     Runjin Chem     Shanxi          Nov-19          300                                                                             10
     Sanning         Hubei           Nov-19          795                                                                        53                                                               2016
                                                                                                                                      8
     Mingshengda     Shandong       H2 2020          795    5
                                                                                                                                52    6
     XLX Jiangxi     Jiangxi        H2 2020          525                                                                                                                                         2017
                                                                                                                                      4
     Hongtaixing     Heilongjiang   H2 2020          300                                                                        51
                                                                                                                                      2                                                          2018
     Linggu Chem     Jinagsu        H2 2021         1,680                  Monthly Chinese production
     Zhengyuan       Hebei          H2 2021          248    0                                                                   50    0
                                                                 Jan-          Jul-   Jan-    Jul-     Jan-    Jul-                       Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun    Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
     Total firm                                     6,368         17            17     18      18       19      19

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Market Balance: Five-year Outlook
Cheaper inputs, a weak RMB and capacity make the market look moderately over-supplied in the year
ahead

                                                   mn t/y
•   The withdrawal of Chinese exports in 2016      8
                                                                                                                                 Net Change

    and 2017 contributed to a reduction in                                                                                       Demand
                                                                                                                                 Chinese export delta
    the net change surplus, then a deficit in
                                                   7
                                                                                                                                 Iran export delta

    2018, which brought a tighter market in        6                                                                             Closures

    that year.
                                                                                                                                 Restarts
                                                   5
                                                                                                                                 Capacity expansion

•   We had been expecting a tighter 2019,          4

    but a weak RMB and weak energy prices          3
    mean that Chinese urea exports have            2
    tipped the balance towards surplus.
    For the period 2020-21, the market looks
                                                   1
•
    to be shifting to surplus with 5 million t/y   0

    of new export oriented capacity                -1

    exceeding new demand growth, so the            -2
    market likely to weaken.                       -3
•   For 2023-2024, the rate of new capacity
                                                   -4
    additions slows, and we can expect a
    tighter market. But there’s a risk that some   -5

    projects move ahead and tip the balance.       -6
                                                            2016         2017         2018    2019   2020   2021   2022   2023              2024

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Appendix:
              Update on Argus fertilizer sector coverage

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