IGC India Conference: The Impact of COVID-19 in India and Pathways to Recovery - Institute for Human Development, New Delhi
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IGC India Conference: The Impact of COVID-19 in India and Pathways to Recovery
Institute for Human Development, New DelhiBackground and Scope of Study • The COVID-19 pandemic and the consequent government- enforced lockdown have adversely impacted peoples’ livelihoods • In Bihar 90% live in rural area, high incidence of out-migration, the flow of remittances decreased loss of income • In a state where food insecurity was already high, the incidence is likely to have been exacerbated due to the lockdown • almost half
Major research questions of the Study 1. To what extent lockdown has affected the availability and access to food of the rural household? 2. To what extent has it affected different segments of the population such as labour households, cultivating households, migrant households and other vulnerable groups? 3. To gauge how effective are the public safety net programmes such as PDS, ICDS, and MDM Scheme in reaching to the beneficiaries.
Sampling and Methodology • Telephonic interviews 944 rural households in 12 villages of 7 districts of Bihar (1st round of study 2016). • Food security was measured based on three indicators: ❖ Dietary diversity score (DDS), (0-12 scale) ❖ Food frequency score (FFS) ❖ Food insecurity experience scale (HFIES). (0-8) • Ordered Probit model for the determinant of DDS • Bivariate probit model is used to understand the determinants of food security • Correlates-Occupational group, caste/religion group, district
Results
% consumed 2 meals or less per DDS and FFS (%)
day 17 12
32 30 25
25 26 25
57
52 81
59
6
2
26 23
Adult Male Adult Female Children
11 7
Pre-Corona Since Corona HDDS FFS-Adult FFS-Child FFS-Household
Self Assessed Household Food Low Medium High
Insecurity
49
31
20
Mild Food Moderately Severely Food
Insecure Food insecure Insecure
Food InsecureCorrelates of HDDS FFS and HFIES: Household Socio Economic
and Demographic Status
• About 1/3 SC/ST remained in the low DDS and 18% high DDS
category.
• High DDS is highest among regular wage followed by self-
employed in agl and lowest among the casual labour.
• % of households with low FFS is lowest in upper caste and
highest in Muslim community.
• % households with low FFS-child is highest among migrant
(55%) and lowest among regular salaried households (11%).
• In terms of Self Assessed Food Insecurity 57% casual labour
and self-emp in non agl have severe food insecurity whereas
42% migrant severely affected.
• Regular working household least affected.Household DDS and FFS by Type of Livelihood Affected Household
Main Occupation of Household DDS (%)
Corona % affected FFS (%)
Impact by corona
Low High Adult-L Adult-H Child-L Child-H
Self-employed Affected 40 28 14 13 24 26 22
in Agl Not affected 60 23 21 9 33 18 30
Self-employed Affected 84 32 25 19 18 32 16
in non-agl Not affected 16 10 31 18 24 27 23
Regular wage Affected 12 52 10 11 30 10 36
employed Not affected 88 16 33 8 42 0 68
Casual labour Affected 100 56 12 55 11 46 13
Not affected 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Migrant Labour Affected 93 36 8 22 23 47 10
Not affected 7 11 20 10 24 22 21
Consumption of Food Groups on Average no of Days/Month
Food Items Pre-Corona Since Corona Food Items Pre-Corona Since Corona
Cereals 30 30Eggs 8 2
Roots & tubers 19 13Meat/chicken 6 1
vegetables 17 14Fish 8 5
Ripe fruits 8 2Pulses 10 4
Sweets 3 0Oils/fats/ghee 29 29
Beverages & Drinks 4 1Spices 30 29
Milk 25 27Item outside HH 10 1% having Severe Food Insecurity among Affected and not Affected
non-agl wage emp Casual lab Migrant Lab
N-aff 21
Aff 55
N-aff 0
Aff 53
N-aff 40
Self-emp in Self-emp in Regular
Aff 48
N-aff 16
Aff 42
N-aff 36
Agl
Aff 40Monthly Per Capita Consn Expenditure 2016-21
Mean (Rs)
MPCE_2016 1533
MPCE_2021 1622
Monthly food_2016 3815
Monthly food_2021 6078
Monthly non food_2016 4961
Monthly nonfood_2021 2838
Share of Food and Non-Food Consumption % point increase in food consn exp
Expenditure between 2016 to 2021
29 20 20
46 16 18 17
11
71
54
Self-emp Self-emp Salaried Casual Migrant Total
2016 2021 in agl in non-agl
Share of Food Exp Share Non Food_ExpChange of Diet Diversity of Households in Rural Bihar HDDS in 2016 and 2021 (in %)
before and during COVID-19 Outbreak
56.7
Incr Decr No 45.4
31.5
ease ease change 26.2 23.1
17.1
Cereals 100
Roots & tubers 18 6 76
Dark green/Yellow Low Medium High
5 42 53
leafy vegetables 2016 2021
Ripe fruits 3 10 87 FFS in 2016 and 2021 (in %)
Sweets - 5 95 33.8 30.1 33.5 26.7
Beverages & Drinks - 2 98
Milk 10 50 40 33.6
58.3
33.8 51.0
Eggs 12 7 81 32.6 32.7 22.4
Meat 7 5 88 11.7
Fish 9 8 83 2016 2021 2016 2021
Adult Child
Pulses 15 32 53
Low Medium High
Oils/fats/ghee 100Food Security Situation in before and during Covid-19 Period (in %)
57 58
44 45
38 39
35
25
23
20
18 16
11 12 11
8
5
1 2 1
Worried they Not able to Ate only a Skipped a Ate less Felt hungry Without Mild Food Moderately Severely
would not eat a variety few kinds of meal amount of eating the Insecure Food Food
have enough of food food items food whole day insecure Insecure
food
Items of HFIES Food Insecure
2016 2021Role of Government Programme to Mitigate Food Insecurity During COVID-19 Outbreak
PDS Supports during COVID-19 Outbreak (in %) Frequency of Receiving Food Supplement for 0-6
children During Covid-19 Outbreak
Insignificant due to irregular 9
supply 11
9.33 Not received
Less than 2 weeks of 40.01 2.64
8.21
requirements
Rarely
21.82 18.97 46.59
Do not have ration card Sometimes
21.82 23.59
Mostly
More than 3 weeks of 23.52
requirements 1 Received cash
transfer
36.33
2-3 weeks of requirements
26.17
Post Corona Pre_ CoronaTHR supports child nutrition during Pre and MDM supports for school going child nutrition
Post Covid period (in %) during Pre and Post Covid period (in %)
More than half the food child eats daily 1
34
More than half the food child 1
Only nutrients portion which is not eats daily 10.39
2
eaten in the household 19
Only nutrients portion which is 10
15 not eaten in the household 16.57
Light meals for child 45
Light meals for child 12
Insignificant portion due to iregular 82 61.94
supply 2
Insignificant portion due to 77
iregular supply 2.11
Post Corona Pre corona
Post Corona Pre Corona
Regular Services Available at AWC During COVID-19 Outbreak (in
%) Pre- Since
Corona Corona
Take Home Ration 61 23
Cooked Hot Meal at AWC 66 0
Growth monitoring 60 10
Health Check-up at AWC 65 42
Health facilities for SAM children 6 0
MUAC measurement 12 5
Immunization at AWC 80 65Coping Strategy Opted by the Households to smooth Coping Strategy To Smooth Consumption by
the Consumption (in %) Households Main Sources of Livelihood(in %)
3
Relief provided by the NGOs 4 17 19 14
48
help provided by the friends/ 20
6 30 52
relatives Relied on Own savings
7 48
Cut the number of meals per 9 9 12 Relief provided by the
day
9 5 2 NGOs
8 3
3 Relief provided by the
government
43 20 15
Relied on Own savings 20 38 35 help provided by the
13 friends/ relatives
12
Cut the number of meals
Changed dietary pattern 25 per day
Changed dietary pattern
Relief provided by the
government
36Findings from Marginal effect from Ordered Probit Model ❑If migrant HH affected since Corona, then it was 9 percentage points more likely that they would have low DDS ❑If migrant HH not affected 17 percentage points more likely that they would have high DDS ❑If the HH received in PMJDY account, it was 11 percentage points more likely that the households would have high DDS ❑If the HH received in PMJDY account 8 percentage points less likely for such households to have low DDS. ❑Households in Gopalganj and Rohtas were likely to have higher DDS while Purnia and Araria were likely to have low DDS than Gaya district.
Policy Recommendation • Cash transfer to beneficiaries for ICDS/MDM/School • Increase of manpower at AWCs for routine work • Revival of the economy through more employment opportunities that indirectly ensure the food security • Improving the last mile connection for PMJDY transportation restrictions/ obstacles in accessing banks/awareness. • PMGKY is helpful but regular ration for some HH decreased
Policy Recommendation • A large of migrant households excluded from ‘lists’ of PDS beneficiary due to lack of documents, or not making the eligibility criteria. • Government should plan for the programmes like ‘nutrition bar’ that is rich in iron, calcium and protein implemented in Kerala which may cater to the nutrition deficiency among underweight children. • In the long term to improve the dietary diversity in food consumption government should encourage the kitchen garden among the rural households. This model has successful in some part of India.
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