Keys-wide comparison: January-March 2021 vs. 2020 - Key West ...
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Keys-wide comparison: January—March 2021 vs. 2020
Everyone recognizes that the Keys real estate market is red hot but quantifying just how hot presents a stunning
picture. This report uniquely quantifies in detail the difference between the pre-COVID market and our current market
which has been profoundly and somewhat unexpectedly impacted by COVID-19. Virtually every measure of this market
from the number of sales which are up 66%, average sale price which is up 25%, and the inventory or lack thereof which is
down over 31% are without equal at any time in Keys history. The Keys has never experienced this level of sales activity
to the point that surveys, inspections, appraisals and closings are sometimes difficult to schedule as all of those service
providers are overwhelmed processing the unprecedented number of sales transactions. We can confidently say that,
for most sellers, their properties have never been worth more, however, many are reluctant to sell until the market
peaks or because they can’t find a replacement property in the Keys or elsewhere. The psychology of this market is
fundamentally driven by a flight to economic and physical safety which the Florida Keys represents and is fueled by a
strong sense of urgency and a fear of missing out. As a tourist destination, another measure of the popularity and
desirability of the Keys is the hospitality sector which enjoys the highest average daily room rates and occupancy in the
US. With interest rates and inventories at all-time lows, we fully expect the real estate market to continue to be hot
through the summer. We are, however, being vigilant for any signs of cooling which will first be signaled by increased
inventories and increased numbers of price reductions and erosion of the sale price-to-list price ratios.
Keys-wide Comparison: sale price-to-list price ratio
The Keys Submarkets report
Sales & Listings Q1 2021 vs 2020
1,000
900
800
When buyers were able to once again visit the Keys after
700 June, the submarkets other than Key West fared better for
600
sales initially due to the perception that it was easier to
(thousands)
500
isolate elsewhere. Here, we see Key West’s results
892
400
687
matching the rest of the Keys more closely. Listings fell in
608
566
300
523
466
each area (though less drastically in Key West) as the pace
350
200
321
305
302
222
217
215
184
120
122
100
0
of sales consumed inventory rapidly.
Upper Keys Middle Keys Lower Keys Key West
Sales 2021 Sales 2020 Listings 2021 Listings 2020
Avg Sale Price Residential & Vacant Land
$1,200
When we look at all property types, Key West, alone, had a
$1,000
reduction in ASP. Isolating residential and vacant land
properties from the rest, though, shows increases in each $800
(thousands)
submarket ranging from 14%-46% for housing and 4.3% to
$1,082
$600
$961
$954
116.2% for vacant land. The average list price for all
$877
$862
$835
$756
$730
$697
$400
$601
property types was up 14.7% Keys-wide with the Upper Keys
$360
$340
$346
$293
$285
$200
posting a 24.6% jump followed by the Middle Keys at 22.1%,
$228
$214
$196
$194
$157
the Lower Keys at 9.7% and Key West at 2.6%. $0
Upper Keys Middle Keys Lower Keys Key West Keys-wide
Res ASP 2021 Res ASP 2020 Land ASP 2021 Land ASP 2020
Days on Market & Months of Inventory - Q1 2021
140
14.2
16
Keys-wide, the average days on market barely changed
14
120
12.4 12.9 12.5 from 2020’s figure of 108 days. While many properties are
11.2 12
100 going under contract within days of being listed, a number
10
80 that have been listed for longer-than-average periods have
DOM
MOI
8
been selling, too, keeping the average fairly constant. The
125
121
121
119
60
5.7
109
109
108
6
number of sales coupled with the shrinking inventory has
96
93
88
40 4.6 4.7
4.2 4.9 4
significantly impacted the months of inventory which is a
20 2
measure of the absorption rate or the time to sell all
0 0
Upper Keys Middle Keys Lower Keys Key West Keys-wide currently listed properties.
DOM 2021 DOM 2020 MOI 2021 MOI 2020
Looking at residential sales, the ratios of sale price to-original Sale Price-
Price- to-
to-Original List Price & Sale Price-
Price- to-
to-
Final List Price
sale price and original list price-to-final list price (which are a 120.00%
measure of the discounts sellers are having to provide)
100.00%
improved everywhere except in the Middle Keys where there
80.00%
was a 0.3% decrease. The average price reductions ranged
(thousands)
from 1.8% in the Lower Keys to 3.6% in the Middle Keys. The 60.00%
96.9%
96.4%
95.5%
95.0%
95.3%
94.9%
94.7%
94.6%
94.6%
93.9%
93.7%
93.5%
93.0%
92.6%
92.8%
91.1%
91.3%
91.3%
89.6%
80.7%
lower number of vacant land transactions leads to wider 40.00%
swings. The Upper Keys and Middle Keys were up while the 20.00%
Lower Keys saw near-20% decreases. Key West was down to a
0.00%
lesser degree. Vacant land average price reductions ranged Upper Keys Middle Keys Lower Keys Key West Keys-wide
from 0.3% in the Upper Keys to 3.1% in Key West. SP-FLP 2020 SP-OLP 2020 SP-FLP 2021 SP-OLP 2021
VISIT REALESTATEFLORIDAKEYS.COM
Pending, Contingent & Contingent-
Contingent -Show Sales
800
700
600 The level of pending sales is the best predictor of what the
500 months ahead hold in store. The number at the end of Q1 is
(thousands)
736
400
well ahead of what we've experienced in recent years
300
496
481
indicating that the market remains red hot. There were 736
437
360
200
222
220
pendings Keys-wide compared with 360 at Q1 2020’s end,
171
113
123
100
80
69
98
0 496 in Q1 2019, 437 in Q1 2018, and 481 in Q1 2017.
Upper Middle Lower Key West All Keys All Keys All Keys Alll Keys
Keys Keys Keys 2019 2018 2017
Pending 2021 Pending 2020
Coldwell Banker Schmitt ranked among top 500 brokers
Based on dollar volume of sales for 2020, we were ranked among the largest real estate companies in the United States, appearing
at #380 in RISMedia’s 2021 Power Broker Report and #390 in the 2021 REALTrends Power Broker 500. This means our company
ranks in the top one-half percent of all 106,500+ real estate brokerages in America. Brian SchmiD, president and broker, said
“There’s a reason that we, alone, among all Florida Keys real estate companies have repeatedly appeared in both RISMedia’s Top
500 Power Brokers and REALTrends Power Broker 500: customer sa-sfac-on and loyalty. Through the knowledge, experience and
professionalism of our people, our marke-ng and transac-on management programs, along with our commitment to represent our
customers as single agents, we con-nually strive to provide an excep-onal experience for Keys sellers and buyers.”
2020 in review: RealEstateFloridaKeys.com
We’re pleased to note that our site, RealEstateFloridaKeys.com, saw a 39%
increase in traffic for calendar year 2020 vs. 2019. This comes on the heels Region Country
of a 56% increase for 2019 vs. 2018. Total sessions in 2020 grew by 37% and 1 Florida 1 United States
pageviews were up 21%. (Our vaca-on rentals site, RentalsFloridaKeys.com 2 Virginia 2 China
posted a 21% increase in users and sessions over 2019 despite the Keys 3 Illinois 3 Canada
4 New York 4 India
being inaccessible to vaca-oners for several months.)
5 California 5 Finland
Because most buyers search and find their home on the internet, we make 6 Texas 6 United Kingdom
sure our lis-ngs are exposed where buyers are looking. Visits from social 7 New Jersey 7 France
8 Pennsylvania 8 Germany
media posted the biggest propor-onate gain among all sources, up 94%,
9 Georgia 9 Netherlands
reflec-ng the success of the marke-ng programs we’ve put in place to 10 Ohio 10 Hong Kong
increase lis-ngs exposure as well as share news and informa-on about 11 Michigan 11 United Arab Emirates
Florida Keys real estate. 12 North Carolina 12 Philippines
13 Massachusetts 13 Pakistan
Here we present a look at where those visits originate geographically, 14 Tennessee 14 Turkey
ranking the top 25 States and Na-ons in order. Overall, 92.5% of visits 15 Maryland 15 Argentina
originated in the United States, and within the USA, visits from Florida 16 Indiana 16 Austria
accounted for nearly half of all sessions, an increase of about 7% over the 17 Wisconsin 17 South Korea
previous year. 18 South Carolina 18 Dominican Republic
19 Connecticut 19 Singapore
Canada is tradi-onally our number-one interna-onal point of origin but 20 Colorado 20 Ukraine
2020 totals illustrate the restric-ve effect of the pandemic on travel 21 Kansas 21 Australia
especially with regard to the EU and UK. 22 Minnesota 22 Italy
23 Washington 23 Belgium
We saw con-nuing expansion in the use of mobile devices for real estate 24 Iowa 24 Denmark
search. Visits to the mobile version of the site via smart phone were up 73% 25 Oregon 25 Russia
while desktop computer sessions grew by 17%.
PRESORTED STD.
U.S. POSTAGE
P A I D
Marathon, FL
PERMIT NO. 15
11050 Overseas Hwy. — Main Office
Marathon, FL 33050
Toll Free: 800-366-5181
Office: 305-743-5181
AND/OR CURRENT RESIDENT:
Which Company’s Agents would You Want to Sell Your Property?
Coldwell Banker Schmitt is the Leading Company for Sales & Listings Sold Keys-wide
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