LATIN AMERICA TELECOMS MARKET: INTERIM FORECAST UPDATE 2016-2021
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Latin America telecoms market: interim forecast update 2016–2021
REGIONAL FORECAST REPORT
LATIN AMERICA TELECOMS MARKET:
INTERIM FORECAST UPDATE
2016–2021
ROMAN ORVISKY
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017
Latin America telecoms market: interim forecast update 2016–2021
About this report
This report provides: R EPOR T COVER AG E
an interim update of our 5-year forecast (which was previously Geographical Key performance indicators
published in September 2016)1 of more than 175 mobile and
fixed KPIs for Latin America as a whole and for six key Regions modelled: Connections Revenue
countries Latin America Mobile Mobile
an explanation of the significant changes in this edition, Handset, mobile Service,3 retail
Countries modelled broadband,1 IoT2
compared with our previous forecasts individually
Prepaid, contract
Prepaid, contract Handset, mobile
Revisions to our previous forecasts occurred mainly for the Argentina
2G, 3G, 4G, 5G broadband1, IoT2
following reasons: Brazil
Chile Smartphone, Handset voice,
non-smartphone messaging, data
market developments – based on recent market events and Colombia
latest reported operator and regulator data (3Q 2016) Mexico Fixed Fixed
Peru Voice, broadband, Service3, retail
changes to the competitive and regulatory environment IPTV, dial-up Voice, broadband,
Narrowband voice, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
changes to the macroeconomic outlook and exchange rates VoBB DSL, FTTP/B, cable,
used to derive revenue in constant US dollars
DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other
changes to historical data because of newly available BFWA, other
ARPU
information.
Voice traffic Mobile:
For the complete data set, see the accompanying Excel file at Fixed and mobile SIMs, handset
www.analysysmason.com/LATAM-interim-Mar2017. Outgoing minutes, Prepaid, contract
MoU Handset voice, data
1 Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, but not handset data.
1 For more information, see Analysys Mason’s Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts
2016–2021. Available at: www.analysysmason.com/Research/Content/Regional-forecasts-
2 IoT connections and revenue figures include mobile services only.
/LATAM-telecoms-forecast-Sep2016-RDDG0. 3 Service revenue is the sum of retail and wholesale revenue.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 2
Latin America telecoms market: interim forecast update 2016–2021
Contents
5. Executive summary and regional forecasts 18. About the author and Analysys Mason
6. Handset data and fixed broadband will be the main reasons for revenue 19. About the author
growth, although this will be slow during the forecast period
20. About Analysys Mason
7. Smartphones and 4G/5G: The region’s smartphone user base will grow to
21. Research from Analysys Mason
nearly half a billion by 2021
22. Consulting from Analysys Mason
8. Fixed services: The rapid growth in revenue and the number of
subscriptions for cable is a consistent theme across the region
9. Key regional changes since our previous forecast
10. Forecast revision: More positive outlook on handset data and fixed
broadband
11. Individual country forecasts
12. Argentina: We have revised our forecast up because inflation continues to
drive up tariffs
13. Brazil: Revenue will grow overall because handset data will make up for a
declining voice market
14. Chile: Strong mobile growth in 2016 drives an upward revision of our
previous forecast
15. Colombia: We have lowered our forecast for telecoms service revenue
based on newly available data
16. Mexico: We have revised our forecast down based on intense mobile
competition and the uncertain economic climate
17. Peru: The forecast has been revised down due to mobile competition and a
slowdown in fixed broadband growth
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 3Latin America telecoms market: interim forecast update 2016–2021
List of figures
Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue Figure 13: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast,
(retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Latin America, 2011–2021 Chile
Figure 2: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets and 4G/5G’s share of total Figure 14: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue
connections (excluding IoT), Latin America, 2015 and 2021 (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Colombia, 2011–2021
Figure 3: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile Figure 15: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast,
broadband connections, Latin America, 2011–2021 Colombia
Figure 4: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast for Figure 16: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue
Latin America (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Mexico, 2011–2021
Figure 5: Telecoms retail revenue forecast by service type and total service Figure 17: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast,
revenue, previous and new forecasts, Latin America, 2016 and 2021 Mexico
Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue
growth rates, Latin America, 2015 and 2021 (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Peru, 2011–2021
Figure 7: Connections by type, and growth rates, Latin America, 2015 and 2021 Figure 19: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast,
Peru
Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue
(retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Argentina, 2011–2021
Figure 9: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast,
Argentina
Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue
(retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Brazil, 2011–2021
Figure 11: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast,
Brazil
Figure 12: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue
(retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Chile, 2011–2021
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 4Latin America telecoms market: interim forecast update 2016–2021
Smartphones and 4G/5G: The region’s smartphone user base will grow to
nearly half a billion by 2021
Figure 2: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets and 4G/5G’s share of total connections Brazil and Mexico will continue to lead the region in the
(excluding IoT), Latin America, 2015 and 2021 smartphone share of handsets.
100% 70% Competition, subsidies and low penetration among low-end users
90% in Mexico are the main reasons for this, although Telcel is not
60% allowed to offer direct subsidies. Colombia and Peru will continue
80%
to lag behind the other major LATAM markets in smartphone
Percentage of connections
Percentage of handsets
70% 50% penetration – the two countries have the lowest GDP per capita
60% among major LATAM markets, and handset subsidies are
40% prohibited in Colombia. In recent years, countries across the
50% region have also been hit by currency depreciation in relation to
40% 30% the US Dollar, affecting their ability to purchase imported devices,
although the depreciation has, in most cases, stabilised in 2016.
30% 20%
4G adoption is growing faster than expected across LATAM.
20%
10% The availability of cheap devices, spectrum, and operator efforts
10%
to promote data usage have combined to drive 4G growth. This
0% 0% has been particularly strong in Brazil, where quarterly net adds
Chile
Argentina
Colombia
Peru
Mexico
LATAM
Brazil
have grown in 15 out of 16 quarters since the technology was
launched in 1Q 2013, reaching over 10 million net adds in
4Q 2016 alone. A similar story has emerged in Chile, where the
4G user base more than doubled between 2015 and 3Q 2016 as
Smartphones as a percentage of handsets: 2015 2021 spectrum in the 700MHz band has finally been made available. In
the face of growing MVNOs and declining voice pricing,
4G/5G share of total connections (excluding IoT): 2015 2021 established MNOs have been successful in leveraging their
financial advantage in building up network coverage.
Source: Analysys Mason
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 7Latin America telecoms market: interim forecast update 2016–2021
CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND REGIONAL FORECASTS
INDIVIDUAL COUNTRY FORECASTS
ABOUT THE AUTHOR AND ANALYSYS MASON
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 18Latin America telecoms market: interim forecast update 2016–2021
About the author
Roman Orvisky (Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team in London, contributing to the Telecoms Market Matrix, European
Core Forecasts, European Country Reports and Global Telecoms Forecasts programmes. Prior to joining Analysys Mason in November 2014, he
worked in the Transaction Services department of the Royal Bank of Scotland in a customer experience internship role. During his studies,
Roman focused on consumer behaviour in an online context, and has experience in churn modelling in the telecoms sector, social network
analysis and browsing data analysis. Roman holds a Bachelor’s degree in business from Durham University, and an MSc in marketing research
from the Tilburg University School of Economics and Management.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 19Latin America telecoms market: interim forecast update 2016–2021
Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
Analysys Mason’s consulting services and research portfolio CONSULTING
We deliver tangible benefits to clients across the telecoms
industry:
communications and digital service providers, vendors,
financial and strategic investors, private equity and
Consumer infrastructure funds, governments, regulators,
services Regulation broadcasters, and service and content providers.
and policy
Digital Our sector specialists understand the distinct local challenges
economy facing clients, in addition to the wider effects of global forces.
Enterprise
We are future-focused and help clients understand the
Transaction
and IoT challenges and opportunities that new technology brings.
support
RESEARCH
Regional
markets Our dedicated team of analysts track and forecast the
Strategy different services accessed by consumers and enterprises.
Telecoms and planning
software and We offer detailed insight into the software, infrastructure and
networks technology delivering those services.
Clients benefit from regular and timely intelligence, and direct
access to analysts.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 20Latin America telecoms market: interim forecast update 2016–2021
Research from Analysys Mason
We provide dedicated coverage of developments in the telecoms, media and technology (TMT) sectors, through a range
of research programmes that focus on different services and regions of the world.
PROGRAMMES
Mobile Services
Mobile Devices
Fixed Broadband Services PROGRAMMES
Convergence Strategies Large Enterprise Voice and Data Connectivity
PROGRAMMES
Video Strategies Large Enterprise Emerging Service Opportunities
Network Investment Strategies
Research Network Traffic
Spectrum
Small and Medium Enterprise Strategies
IoT and M2M Solutions
portfolio Enterprise IoT Platforms and Technology
and IoT
Consumer
PROGRAMMES
Network services PROGRAMMES
Service Assurance
Service Delivery Platforms investment Digital Economy Strategies
Next-Generation Wireless Networks Future Comms
Network Orchestration Digital
Software-Controlled Networking economy
Digital Experience
Customer Care
Revenue Management Telecoms Regional
PROGRAMMES
Analytics software markets
Global Telecoms Forecasts
Asia–Pacific
Service Fulfilment
Telecoms Software Market Shares and Middle East and Africa
Software Forecast and Strategy networks European Country Reports
European Core Forecasts
European Telecoms Market Matrix
www.analysysmason.com/research
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 21Latin America telecoms market: interim forecast update 2016–2021
Consulting from Analysys Mason
For 30 years, our consultants have been bringing the benefits of applied intelligence to enable clients around the
world to make the most of their opportunities.
EXPERTISE EXPERTISE
Performance analysis Radio spectrum
Technology optimisation auction support
Commercial excellence Radio spectrum
Consulting Transformation services
Performance
management
portfolio improvement
Spectrum
EXPERTISE policy and
Policy development and response
Margin squeeze tests
auction
Analysing regulatory accounts
support
Expert legal support Regulation Transaction
EXPERTISE
Media regulation support Market research
Postal sector costing, pricing and regulation
Regulatory economic costing Market analysis
EXPERTISE
Business strategy and planning
Net cost of universal service Commercial due diligence
Strategy Market sizing and forecasting
Regulatory due diligence
Technical due diligence
and Benchmarking and best practice
planning National and regional broadband
strategy and implementation
To find out more, please visit www.analysysmason.com/consulting
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 22Latin America telecoms market: interim forecast update 2016–2021
PUBLISHED BY ANALYSYS MASON LIMITED IN MARCH 2017
Bush House • North West Wing • Aldwych • London • WC2B 4PJ • UK
Tel: +44 (0)20 7395 9000 • Email: research@analysysmason.com • www.analysysmason.com/research • Registered in England No. 5177472
© Analysys Mason Limited 2016. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means – electronic,
mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise – without the prior written permission of the publisher.
Figures and projections contained in this report are based on publicly available information only and are produced by the Research Division of Analysys Mason Limited independently of any
client-specific work within Analysys Mason Limited. The opinions expressed are those of the stated authors only.
Analysys Mason Limited recognises that many terms appearing in this report are proprietary; all such trademarks are acknowledged and every effort has been made to indicate them by the
normal UK publishing practice of capitalisation. However, the presence of a term, in whatever form, does not affect its legal status as a trademark.
Analysys Mason Limited maintains that all reasonable care and skill have been used in the compilation of this publication. However, Analysys Mason Limited shall not be under any liability for
loss or damage (including consequential loss) whatsoever or howsoever arising as a result of the use of this publication by the customer, his servants, agents or any third party.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017You can also read
