LOCKDOWN WEEK 4 SOUTH AFRICA - COVID-19 Impact April 24th, 2020 - Trade Intelligence
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COVID-19 Impact LOCKDOWN WEEK 4 SOUTH AFRICA April 24th, 2020
Lockdown Life in SA continues and we adjust to our
new normal
• Four weeks into Lockdown Life we’ve had to make significant changes to our purchasing behavior in
certain areas, but to a large extent grocery buying has stabilized.
• Over the latest 6 weeks there has been a shift from health & hygiene and shelf stable categories during
the panic buying period, to comfort/convenience foods during the lockdown period.
• Starting to see ‘cooking fatigue’ as consumers turn to convenience foods and snacking, but recipe
inspiration is still sought after, especially on weekends
• Searches for homemade alcoholic brews increase whilst alcohol remains a restricted category
• Purchasing Habit Changes from Pantry Loading to Lockdown
– ‘Make-it-yourself’ cooking and baking, with spices and seasonings growing to maximize flavour of
foods
– Fresh vegetables, like potatoes and onions, have gained popularity as they have a longer shelf life
period and reduces the number of shopping trips required
– Pantry replenishment is occurring for meal maintenance
– Strong growth in Airtime (especially LSM 1-6) presents opportunities for connecting with consumers
– Data is much more important for ALL LSM groups. The only way to stay connected and in touch
– Whilst LSM 7-10 continues to purchase high value wellness products such as Medicinal products
and Vitamins, LSM 1-6 is purchasing more Hair Care products
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 2
South Africa deaths increased from 48 to 75 over the latest week
Deaths in the USA exceed 50,000
Days since first reported case
49 114 85 82 82
Cases 2,747,268 globally Deaths 191,900 globally
+25% vs. Previous update +30% vs. previous update
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 3
South Africa is on Day 29 of lockdown (24 April 2020) but a slight ease in lockdown restrictions is
expected on May 1st
Apr 14
Apr 2 Trump halts
Jan 20/21 Global WHO
Confirmed cases outside Mar 23 cases: funding
mainland China in Japan, Feb 21/23 21-day 1m
Virus surges in Apr 23
Jan 7 South Korea, Thailand & US Mar 11 lockdown
Italy as officials Ramaphosa
Confirmation WHO declares announced announces
that officials lockdown towns Corona Virus Apr 10
Mar 27 move to Level 4
have identified outbreak a First death in Lockdown restrictions on
a new virus Pandemic South Africa extended May1
Jan Feb Mar Apr
2020 2020 2020 2020
Lockdown
Jan 11 Jan 30 Mar 26
China reports WHO declares Start of SA
global health Mar 5 lockdown Apr 7
first death
emergency First South Boris Johnson
African tests admitted to
positive for hospital Apr 15
Dec 31 Global
Corona Virus Mar 15
China alerts cases:
WHO to many Ramaphosa Mar 26 2m
unusual declares a Global
National State cases:
pneumonia
of Disaster 500k
cases in Wuhan
Current Data Week
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 4
Coronavirus cases cross the 2.7mill mark globally, a R500bill stimulus package is announced to
stimulate the economy and SA will move to Lockdown Phase 4 on 01 May 2020
A week of announcements
Tuesday 21 April 2020 Thursday 23 April 2020
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Last updated: April 24, 2020, 11:53 GMT
https://www.iol.co.za/business-report/economy/ramaphosa-announces-r500bn-support-package-as-covid-19-hits-sa-economy-47002575
https://mg.co.za/article/2020-04-23-ramaphosa-announces-gradual-easing-of-covid-19-lockdown-in-south-africa/
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 5
On April 21st Cyril Ramaphosa announced a R500b social & economic package to mitigate the
impact of COVID-19
South Africans have been hit hard by lockdown What does the Support package include?
According to research by TransUnion: R50bil boost for grant R70bil in tax relief
recipients 4 month holiday for
8 in 10 said their household income has companies’ skills
been negatively impacted by COVID-19 Child Support grant of R300
per month in May thereafter development levy
1 in 10 have already lost their job R500 until Oct. contributions
All other beneficiaries will VAT refunds fast-tracked
received R250 extra per Increase in PAYE payment
month for 6 months deferrals up to 35%
Social Relief of Distress No penalties for late tax
R200bil Loan scheme grant of R350 per month for payers if they can prove they
To help companies with unemployed not receiving were impacted by COVID-19
operational costs, salaries, rent R20bil for grants or UIF epidemic
and supplier payments, etc. municipalities
for emergency water
supply, public transport
>R100mil for PPE and food and shelter for R250k for Food R100bil to protect
To protect frontline the homeless
Parcels and create jobs
workers
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 6
President Ramaphosa’s speech on the 23rd of April reiterated the seriousness of the
pandemic, but also highlighted the successes from South Africa’s containment strategy
Although the lockdown strategy is best for containing the spread of the disease, this
needs to be balanced with the country’s economic needs. A system of levels has been
announced, with SA to move to level 4 on the 1st of May
Level 4 restrictions include:
– International borders remain closed except for repatriation with very limited travel
allowed between provinces
– Social gatherings are prohibited and the public are encouraged to stay at home except
for essential movement
– The elderly and those with underlying conditions must remain at home and continue to
isolate themselves
– Some businesses may resume, though work from home is encouraged in all
circumstances
– Workers may return in one-third batches
– Range of goods sold in essential retailers extended – Cigarettes will be available
– Public transport will operate but with limited passengers and stringent hygiene
requirements including masks
Source: https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/list-heres-what-you-can-and-cant-do-during-level-4-of-the-lockdown-20200423
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 7
The WC has now become the epicenter of the virus in SA
COVID-19 Statistics in SA
https://www.capetalk.co.za/features/380/covid-19-coronavirus-explained/380641/latest-western-cape-covid-19-stats
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 8
The spread of the corona virus and differing legal opinions have driven factory and store closures
across industry
https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/24-dischem-staff-members-test-positive-for-covid-19/
https://www.iol.co.za/capetimes/news/epping-drug-firm-closes-doors-after-allegations-70-workers-tested-positive-47016368
https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/just-in-woolworths-to-close-hot-food-counters-despite-legal-opinion-20200419
https://www.iol.co.za/mercury/news/two-kzn-food-factories-temporarily-closed-after-workers-test-positive-for-covid-19-46827738
https://boksburgadvertiser.co.za/379789/covid-19-uniliver-workers-test-positive-mmc-happy-with-action-taken-to-prevent-widespread-transmission/
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 9
COVID-19isisaacrisis
COVID-19 Crisislike
likeno
noother
other
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 10SA growth trends follow global trends, and after the Easter lift growth is flat during
lockdown
Total Edible & Non-Edible Grocery Essentials (excl. Liquor & Tobacco)
% Change in Value sales vs. Year Ago
Easter fell on April 21st in 2019
50 Panic Buying Weeks
(one week later than in 2020)
40 Value Sales 2020
Easter week vs 2019
30 Easter week:
-12%
20
Lockdown Weeks
10
Sunday Wk
ending date
0
15/03/2020 22/03/2020 29/03/2020 05/04/2020 12/04/2020 19/04/2020
Mar 15 Mar 27 Apr 12 Apr 21 Last Year
National State of 21-day lockdown Easter 2020 Easter 2019
Disaster announced Commences
Sample of formal retail © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 11Since Lockdown grocery transactions have shifted away from weekends to weekdays as
shoppers try to avoid queues and have a different daily routine
36% of transactions occurred over the weekend pre-lockdown vs. only 20% during Lockdown
Daily Share of Transactions
Pre Lockdown Lockdown
19% 20%
18% 18%
16%
14% 15% 15%
12% 13%
11% 11%
10%
7%
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 12Over the latest 6 weeks there has been a shift from health & hygiene, to shelf stable categories during panic
buying and now to comfort foods. These trends follow what is happening globally
Top Value Growth categories vs. Year Ago by Week
Panic Buying Lockdown
Mar 15th Mar 22nd Mar 29th Apr 5th Apr 12th Apr 19th
Soaps & Sanitiser Vitamins Wheat Flour Baking Ingredients Baking Ingredients Soaps & Sanitiser N
Wipes Wipes Dry Pasta Wheat Flour Ice Cream Spreads Baki
Vitamins Soaps & Sanitiser Vitamins Ice Cream Spices & Seasoning Sugars & Sweetners Edib
Medicinal Toilet Paper Baking Ingredients Spices & Seasoning Soaps & Sanitiser Cereals
Toilet Paper Medicinal Frozen Veg/Potato Oil Yoghurt Vitamins
Spreads Dry Pasta Canned Food Sugars & Sweetners Spreads Baking Ingredients
Household Cleaning Frozen Veg/Potato Spreads Yoghurt Wheat Flour Dry Pasta
Cheese Canned Food Cereals Snacks Sugars & Sweetners Frozen Veg/Potato
Dry Pasta Spreads Medicinal Rice Cereals Milk
Oil Household Cleaning Rice Soup & Stock Condiments & Sauces Soup & Stock
Non-Edible Baking/Indulgent Edible Groceries
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 13Edible Groceries Growths during Panic Buying and Lockdown periods
The panic buying period reflected consumers’ purchasing of long lasting pantry staples which has changed to
meal maintenance, baking and treating/snacks during lockdown
Panic Buying Lockdown Panic Buying Lockdown Value growth
Top 10 Growth Categories
Top 10 Growth Categories
vs. YA
during Panic Buying
Wheat Flour Baking Ingredients
during Lockdown
Dry Pasta Wheat Flour
>80
Frozen Veg/Potato Ice Cream
61 to 80
Canned Food Spices & Seasoning
Spreads Sugars & Sweetners 41 to 60
Baking Ingredients Spreads 31 to 40
Cereals Yoghurt 21 to 30
Oil Cereals 11 to 20
Rice Oil 0 to 10
Soup & Stock Soup & Stock -1 to -10
Maize Milk
-10 to -20
Spices & Seasoning Dry Pasta
-21 to -30
Condiments & Sauces Biscuits
Coffee & Tea Frozen Veg/PotatoNon-Edible Groceries Growths during Panic Buying and Lockdown periods
The panic buying period reflected consumers’ purchasing of preventative wellness products, whereas during
lockdown household cleaning has moved up the ranking
Ranked on Panic Buying Weeks Ranked on Lockdown Weeks Value growth
vs. YA
Panic Buying Lockdown Panic Buying Lockdown
>80
Vitamins Hand Soaps & Sanitiser
61 to 80
Hand Soaps & Sanitiser Vitamins
41 to 60
Wipes Wipes 31 to 40
Medicinal Medicinal 21 to 30
Toilet Paper Household Cleaning 11 to 20
0 to 10
Household Cleaning Oral Care
-1 to -10
Oral Care Pet
-10 to -20
Pet Personal Care -21 to -30
Personal Care Toilet PaperLSM 1-6 Changes in Purchasing Behaviour during Panic Buying and Lockdown
Top 15 Value Growth Categories vs. YA
LSM 1-6 Purchasing Behaviour is
LSM 1-6 Reflective of the ‘New Normal’
• Maximising flavor by purchasing spices
Panic Buying Wks Lockdown Wks
and seasonings
Spices & Seasonings Spices & Seasonings
Citrus Fruit Citrus Fruit • Data & Airtime moved up the list (more
Games & Puzzles Cereals
people likely to be on prepaid) as the
primary way of being in touch with people
Medicinal Potatoes
Wheat Airtime • Fresh produce with long shelf life so as to
Vitamins Data avoid travel
Vinegar Haircare
• Replenishment of pantry staples
Cereals Onions
Frozen Poultry Medicinal • Convenience foods such as Cereal and
Frozen Fish Spreads Heat & Eat
Frozen Veg Sugar & Sweeteners • Baking as an essential way to feed the
Canned Baking Ingredients family and a new hobby
Heat and Eat Heat & Eat
Disinfectants Wheat
• Hair care products for in-home
maintenance
Toilet Paper Creamers Source: SA Scan Data up to week ending 19 April
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 16LSM 7-10 Changes in Purchasing Behaviour during Panic Buying and Lockdown
Top 15 Value Growth Categories vs. YA
LSM 7-10 LSM 7-10 Purchasing Behaviour
is Reflective of the ‘New Normal’
Panic Buying Wks Lockdown Wks
• Convenience foods such as Frozen
Games & Puzzles Citrus Fruit Pastries, as consumers start to
Vitamins Spices & Seasonings experience ‘cooking fatigue’
Medicinal Heat and Eat
• Data is on the list as consumers top
Canned Baking Ingredients
up to stay in touch and work from
Wheat Cereals
home
Cereals Potatoes
Citrus Fruit Frozen Pastries • Fresh and frozen veg with long shelf
Spices & Seasonings Onions life so as to avoid multiple shopping
Heat and Eat Frozen Veg trips
Dry Pasta Wheat
• The baking hobby has risen and
Frozen Veg Data
consumers are indulging in ice cream
Toilet Paper Medicinal
Frozen Fish Vitamins • Wellness products remain a priority
Frozen Poultry Spreads during lockdown
UHT Milk Ice Cream
Source: SA Scan Data up to week ending 19 April
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 17Retailers are joining with consumers to encourage contributions to various relief efforts
Pick n Pay donates R5 million through Feed the Nation and encourages
shoppers to donate online or instore
The Shoprite Group announces support for the Solidarity fund through a
R1 million donation
Clicks Group Directors commit 33% of their salaries to the Solidarity fund for 3
months and donate 10 000 flu vaccines to frontline healthcare workers
Spar will donate R1 for every donation to the Spar Lodestar foundation feeding
scheme
Dischem donates R2 million to the Solidarity Fund and encourages shoppers to
donate through point conversion
Massmart Board & Exec will contribute 230 tons of food to FoodForward SA
over the next 3 months
Woolworths commits R34million to various relief projects and partners with Gift
of the Givers for in-store donation distribution
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 18Interest in recipes are still on the incline, especially over weekends. Baking without yeast and home
brewing recipes are on the rise as consumers seek alcoholic beverage alternatives
Recipe Related Query Search
Search Terms – Interest over Time 1. Hand sanitizer recipe
2. Hunters Dry recipe
South Africa 3. Hot cross bun recipe easy
Recipes Baking Yeast 4. Dalgona coffee recipe
120 5. Fat cake recipe
100 Baking Related Query Search
1. Pancake recipe
80 2. Banana bread recipe
3. Baking bread without yeast
60 4. Yeast for baking
5. Substitute for baking soda
40
Yeast Related Query Search
20 1. Pineapple beer
2. How to make bread without yeast
0 3. No yeast bread rolls
2020/03/21
2020/04/16
2020/03/01
2020/03/03
2020/03/05
2020/03/07
2020/03/09
2020/03/11
2020/03/13
2020/03/15
2020/03/17
2020/03/19
2020/03/23
2020/03/25
2020/03/27
2020/03/29
2020/03/31
2020/04/02
2020/04/04
2020/04/06
2020/04/08
2020/04/10
2020/04/12
2020/04/14
2020/04/18
2020/04/20
4. What is brewers yeast
5. Bread recipes
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 19South Africans turn to homebrewing with no end to the restriction on alcohol sales in sight. Homemade
whipped coffee is also trending, allowing a fancy caffeinated fix during lockdown
Alcohol starved South Africans turn to forums with advice on homemade beers and ciders, while caffeine addicts are following
the Dalgona Coffee (a whipped coffee drink originating in India and made popular on social media) trend
https://www.businessinsider.co.za/how-to-make-your-own-homebrew-2020-4
https://www.cosmopolitan.co.za/life/dalgona-coffee-recipe/
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 20In Conclusion
• Numerous economic and COVID-19 announcements have had South Africans on the edge of their seats. The announcement of
Lockdown Level 4 starting on 01 May is likely to see a surge of purchasing on certain categories, especially those that were restricted.
• Easter weekend delivered a growth bump, but grocery sales are stable and flat in the last week.
• The SA consumer has shifted weekend purchases to week days.
• Over the last 6 weeks shifted their purchases from health & hygiene and shelf stable categories during the panic buying period, to
comfort/convenience foods during lockdown.
• Starting to see ‘cooking fatigue’ as consumers turn to convenience foods and snacking, but recipe inspiration is still sought after,
especially on weekends
• Searches for homemade alcoholic brews increase whilst alcohol remains a restricted category
Retailers and Manufacturers who can adapt quickly to the new normal will build a strong brand with consumers
Purchasing has stabilized, Consumers will continue to Winning retailers will Utilise social media
but the potential for social distance, shifting continue to adjust store effectively to connect with
additional demand grocery trips to weekdays space to facilitate: your consumers in a
spikes remain as SA and making fewer visits, but • In-stock of essential meaningful way by
stores and factories are buying more when they do assortments providing inspiration and
impacted by COVID-19 shop, taking produce shelf • Support consumption convenience solutions
outbreaks life into consideration that has moved from
out-of-home to in-home
• Support click and collect
fulfillment
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 21COVID-19 Category Impacts Growths from around the Globe Global data up to 29 March 2020
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More information about COVID-19 across the IRI world
Visit our website and join our webinars to keep your finger on the pulse around the world
https://www.iriworldwide.com/en-sa
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 38APPENDIX
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 39Stricter lifestyle restrictions have driven slower lockdown growth in SA versus other countries. In the
latest week, the government has added baby essentials and goods to the list
South Africa Italy UK USA Australia
Alcohol sales allowed
during lockdown
Cigarette sales allowed
during lockdown
Initially
Restaurants takeaways & were
food delivery allowed open
Category restrictions in
store
Item limits per product
Limited number of people
per store
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 40© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 41
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