LOCKDOWN WEEK 4 SOUTH AFRICA - COVID-19 Impact April 24th, 2020 - Trade Intelligence

 
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LOCKDOWN WEEK 4 SOUTH AFRICA - COVID-19 Impact April 24th, 2020 - Trade Intelligence
COVID-19 Impact

LOCKDOWN WEEK 4
SOUTH AFRICA

April 24th, 2020
LOCKDOWN WEEK 4 SOUTH AFRICA - COVID-19 Impact April 24th, 2020 - Trade Intelligence
Lockdown Life in SA continues and we adjust to our
 new normal
• Four weeks into Lockdown Life we’ve had to make significant changes to our purchasing behavior in
  certain areas, but to a large extent grocery buying has stabilized.
• Over the latest 6 weeks there has been a shift from health & hygiene and shelf stable categories during
  the panic buying period, to comfort/convenience foods during the lockdown period.
• Starting to see ‘cooking fatigue’ as consumers turn to convenience foods and snacking, but recipe
  inspiration is still sought after, especially on weekends
• Searches for homemade alcoholic brews increase whilst alcohol remains a restricted category

• Purchasing Habit Changes from Pantry Loading to Lockdown
    – ‘Make-it-yourself’ cooking and baking, with spices and seasonings growing to maximize flavour of
      foods
    – Fresh vegetables, like potatoes and onions, have gained popularity as they have a longer shelf life
      period and reduces the number of shopping trips required
    – Pantry replenishment is occurring for meal maintenance
    – Strong growth in Airtime (especially LSM 1-6) presents opportunities for connecting with consumers
    – Data is much more important for ALL LSM groups. The only way to stay connected and in touch
    – Whilst LSM 7-10 continues to purchase high value wellness products such as Medicinal products
      and Vitamins, LSM 1-6 is purchasing more Hair Care products

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LOCKDOWN WEEK 4 SOUTH AFRICA - COVID-19 Impact April 24th, 2020 - Trade Intelligence
South Africa deaths increased from 48 to 75 over the latest week
Deaths in the USA exceed 50,000

Days since first reported case
           49                    114                        85                 82                                                   82

                         Cases   2,747,268 globally              Deaths         191,900 globally
                                 +25% vs. Previous update                       +30% vs. previous update

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LOCKDOWN WEEK 4 SOUTH AFRICA - COVID-19 Impact April 24th, 2020 - Trade Intelligence
South Africa is on Day 29 of lockdown (24 April 2020) but a slight ease in lockdown restrictions is
    expected on May 1st
                                                                                                                                                               Apr 14
                                                                                                                                    Apr 2                    Trump halts
                              Jan 20/21                                                                                             Global                      WHO
                       Confirmed cases outside                                                    Mar 23                            cases:                     funding
                       mainland China in Japan,         Feb 21/23                                 21-day                             1m
                                                     Virus surges in                                                                                                          Apr 23
        Jan 7         South Korea, Thailand & US                              Mar 11            lockdown
                                                     Italy as officials                                                                                                    Ramaphosa
    Confirmation                                                            WHO declares       announced                                                                    announces
     that officials                                  lockdown towns         Corona Virus                                                      Apr 10
                                                                                                             Mar 27                                                       move to Level 4
   have identified                                                           outbreak a                   First death in                     Lockdown                     restrictions on
     a new virus                                                             Pandemic                      South Africa                      extended                          May1
   Jan                                        Feb                  Mar                                                           Apr
  2020                                        2020                 2020                                                         2020
                                                                                                                                                Lockdown

              Jan 11                    Jan 30                                                            Mar 26
          China reports              WHO declares                                                       Start of SA
                                     global health                       Mar 5                          lockdown                       Apr 7
           first death
                                      emergency                      First South                                                   Boris Johnson
                                                                     African tests                                                   admitted to
                                                                      positive for                                                    hospital                        Apr 15
    Dec 31                                                                                                                                                            Global
                                                                     Corona Virus        Mar 15
  China alerts                                                                                                                                                        cases:
 WHO to many                                                                          Ramaphosa            Mar 26                                                      2m
   unusual                                                                             declares a          Global
                                                                                     National State        cases:
  pneumonia
                                                                                      of Disaster           500k
cases in Wuhan
                                                                                                                                                                 Current Data Week

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LOCKDOWN WEEK 4 SOUTH AFRICA - COVID-19 Impact April 24th, 2020 - Trade Intelligence
Coronavirus cases cross the 2.7mill mark globally, a R500bill stimulus package is announced to
stimulate the economy and SA will move to Lockdown Phase 4 on 01 May 2020

                                                                               A week of announcements

                                              Tuesday 21 April 2020                                                               Thursday 23 April 2020

 https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    Last updated: April 24, 2020, 11:53 GMT

                                                    https://www.iol.co.za/business-report/economy/ramaphosa-announces-r500bn-support-package-as-covid-19-hits-sa-economy-47002575
                                                    https://mg.co.za/article/2020-04-23-ramaphosa-announces-gradual-easing-of-covid-19-lockdown-in-south-africa/

                                                                                                                      © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.   5
LOCKDOWN WEEK 4 SOUTH AFRICA - COVID-19 Impact April 24th, 2020 - Trade Intelligence
On April 21st Cyril Ramaphosa announced a R500b social & economic package to mitigate the
impact of COVID-19

South Africans have been hit hard by lockdown                      What does the Support package include?

                According to research by TransUnion:             R50bil boost for grant                                    R70bil in tax relief
                                                                      recipients                                             4 month holiday for
            8 in 10 said their household income has                                                                           companies’ skills
             been negatively impacted by COVID-19                Child Support grant of R300
                                                                 per month in May thereafter                                  development levy
                1 in 10 have already lost their job                    R500 until Oct.                                          contributions
                                                                  All other beneficiaries will                          VAT refunds fast-tracked
                                                                  received R250 extra per                              Increase in PAYE payment
                                                                      month for 6 months                                   deferrals up to 35%
                                                                   Social Relief of Distress                           No penalties for late tax
  R200bil Loan scheme                                            grant of R350 per month for                         payers if they can prove they
   To help companies with                                         unemployed not receiving                           were impacted by COVID-19
operational costs, salaries, rent         R20bil for                    grants or UIF                                           epidemic
 and supplier payments, etc.             municipalities
                                       for emergency water
                                      supply, public transport
>R100mil for PPE                      and food and shelter for       R250k for Food                                        R100bil to protect
 To protect frontline                      the homeless
                                                                        Parcels                                             and create jobs
      workers

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LOCKDOWN WEEK 4 SOUTH AFRICA - COVID-19 Impact April 24th, 2020 - Trade Intelligence
President Ramaphosa’s speech on the 23rd of April reiterated the seriousness of the
     pandemic, but also highlighted the successes from South Africa’s containment strategy

     Although the lockdown strategy is best for containing the spread of the disease, this
     needs to be balanced with the country’s economic needs. A system of levels has been
     announced, with SA to move to level 4 on the 1st of May

     Level 4 restrictions include:
           – International borders remain closed except for repatriation with very limited travel
             allowed between provinces
           – Social gatherings are prohibited and the public are encouraged to stay at home except
             for essential movement
           – The elderly and those with underlying conditions must remain at home and continue to
             isolate themselves
           – Some businesses may resume, though work from home is encouraged in all
             circumstances
           – Workers may return in one-third batches
           – Range of goods sold in essential retailers extended – Cigarettes will be available
           – Public transport will operate but with limited passengers and stringent hygiene
             requirements including masks
Source: https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/list-heres-what-you-can-and-cant-do-during-level-4-of-the-lockdown-20200423

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LOCKDOWN WEEK 4 SOUTH AFRICA - COVID-19 Impact April 24th, 2020 - Trade Intelligence
The WC has now become the epicenter of the virus in SA
COVID-19 Statistics in SA

                                            https://www.capetalk.co.za/features/380/covid-19-coronavirus-explained/380641/latest-western-cape-covid-19-stats

                                                                   © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.       8
LOCKDOWN WEEK 4 SOUTH AFRICA - COVID-19 Impact April 24th, 2020 - Trade Intelligence
The spread of the corona virus and differing legal opinions have driven factory and store closures
    across industry

https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/24-dischem-staff-members-test-positive-for-covid-19/
https://www.iol.co.za/capetimes/news/epping-drug-firm-closes-doors-after-allegations-70-workers-tested-positive-47016368
https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/just-in-woolworths-to-close-hot-food-counters-despite-legal-opinion-20200419
https://www.iol.co.za/mercury/news/two-kzn-food-factories-temporarily-closed-after-workers-test-positive-for-covid-19-46827738
https://boksburgadvertiser.co.za/379789/covid-19-uniliver-workers-test-positive-mmc-happy-with-action-taken-to-prevent-widespread-transmission/

                                                                                                                                © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.   9
LOCKDOWN WEEK 4 SOUTH AFRICA - COVID-19 Impact April 24th, 2020 - Trade Intelligence
COVID-19isisaacrisis
COVID-19       Crisislike
                       likeno
                            noother
                               other

                                       © 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.   10
SA growth trends follow global trends, and after the Easter lift growth is flat during
     lockdown
                               Total Edible & Non-Edible Grocery Essentials (excl. Liquor & Tobacco)
                                                  % Change in Value sales vs. Year Ago

                                                                                      Easter fell on April 21st in 2019
50                                         Panic Buying Weeks
                                                                                       (one week later than in 2020)

40                                                                                        Value Sales 2020
                                                                                         Easter week vs 2019
30                                                                                          Easter week:
                                                                                                       -12%
20

                                                                                              Lockdown Weeks
10
           Sunday Wk
           ending date
0

          15/03/2020                 22/03/2020         29/03/2020       05/04/2020                12/04/2020                               19/04/2020
            Mar 15                                          Mar 27                                   Apr 12                             Apr 21 Last Year
       National State of                               21-day lockdown                             Easter 2020                            Easter 2019
      Disaster announced                                 Commences

                 Sample of formal retail                                                  © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.   11
Since Lockdown grocery transactions have shifted away from weekends to weekdays as
shoppers try to avoid queues and have a different daily routine
36% of transactions occurred over the weekend pre-lockdown vs. only 20% during Lockdown

                                   Daily Share of Transactions

                                  Pre Lockdown         Lockdown

                     19%                                                          20%
                                  18%            18%
                                                                                                                    16%
        14%    15%                                          15%
                                           12%                                               13%
  11%                       11%
                                                                  10%
                                                                                                                                7%

   Monday      Tuesday     Wednesday       Thursday          Friday                Saturday                            Sunday

                                                                        © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.   12
Over the latest 6 weeks there has been a shift from health & hygiene, to shelf stable categories during panic
buying and now to comfort foods. These trends follow what is happening globally

Top Value Growth categories vs. Year Ago by Week

                                       Panic Buying                                                     Lockdown

        Mar 15th             Mar 22nd                 Mar 29th                   Apr 5th                  Apr 12th                           Apr 19th
     Soaps & Sanitiser       Vitamins                Wheat Flour            Baking Ingredients       Baking Ingredients                  Soaps & Sanitiser                               N
          Wipes                Wipes                    Dry Pasta              Wheat Flour               Ice Cream                              Spreads                                Baki
         Vitamins         Soaps & Sanitiser             Vitamins                Ice Cream            Spices & Seasoning                Sugars & Sweetners                              Edib
        Medicinal           Toilet Paper          Baking Ingredients        Spices & Seasoning        Soaps & Sanitiser                         Cereals
       Toilet Paper          Medicinal            Frozen Veg/Potato                Oil                    Yoghurt                              Vitamins
         Spreads              Dry Pasta             Canned Food             Sugars & Sweetners            Spreads                       Baking Ingredients
    Household Cleaning   Frozen Veg/Potato              Spreads                  Yoghurt                Wheat Flour                            Dry Pasta
         Cheese             Canned Food                  Cereals                 Snacks              Sugars & Sweetners                 Frozen Veg/Potato
         Dry Pasta            Spreads                   Medicinal                  Rice                   Cereals                                 Milk
            Oil          Household Cleaning               Rice                 Soup & Stock         Condiments & Sauces                     Soup & Stock

                                           Non-Edible              Baking/Indulgent         Edible Groceries

                                                                                                         © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.   13
Edible Groceries Growths during Panic Buying and Lockdown periods
The panic buying period reflected consumers’ purchasing of long lasting pantry staples which has changed to
meal maintenance, baking and treating/snacks during lockdown
                                                        Panic Buying   Lockdown                                                       Panic Buying            Lockdown                         Value growth

                                                                                  Top 10 Growth Categories
    Top 10 Growth Categories

                                                                                                                                                                                                  vs. YA
     during Panic Buying

                                        Wheat Flour                                                            Baking Ingredients

                                                                                     during Lockdown
                                           Dry Pasta                                                                  Wheat Flour
                                                                                                                                                                                                           >80
                                 Frozen Veg/Potato                                                                      Ice Cream
                                                                                                                                                                                                           61 to 80
                                       Canned Food                                                             Spices & Seasoning
                                            Spreads                                                           Sugars & Sweetners                                                                           41 to 60
                                 Baking Ingredients                                                                       Spreads                                                                          31 to 40
                                             Cereals                                                                      Yoghurt                                                                          21 to 30
                                                  Oil                                                                      Cereals                                                                         11 to 20
                                                 Rice                                                                           Oil                                                                        0 to 10
                                       Soup & Stock                                                                  Soup & Stock                                                                          -1 to -10
                                               Maize                                                                          Milk
                                                                                                                                                                                                           -10 to -20
                                 Spices & Seasoning                                                                      Dry Pasta
                                                                                                                                                                                                           -21 to -30
                               Condiments & Sauces                                                                         Biscuits
                                       Coffee & Tea                                                            Frozen Veg/Potato
Non-Edible Groceries Growths during Panic Buying and Lockdown periods
   The panic buying period reflected consumers’ purchasing of preventative wellness products, whereas during
   lockdown household cleaning has moved up the ranking

                         Ranked on Panic Buying Weeks                            Ranked on Lockdown Weeks                                                 Value growth
                                                                                                                                                             vs. YA
                           Panic Buying   Lockdown                                 Panic Buying        Lockdown
                                                                                                                                                                      >80
             Vitamins                                   Hand Soaps & Sanitiser
                                                                                                                                                                      61 to 80
Hand Soaps & Sanitiser                                               Vitamins
                                                                                                                                                                      41 to 60
               Wipes                                                   Wipes                                                                                          31 to 40
            Medicinal                                               Medicinal                                                                                         21 to 30
          Toilet Paper                                    Household Cleaning                                                                                          11 to 20
                                                                                                                                                                      0 to 10
  Household Cleaning                                                 Oral Care
                                                                                                                                                                      -1 to -10
             Oral Care                                                    Pet
                                                                                                                                                                      -10 to -20
                  Pet                                           Personal Care                                                                                         -21 to -30
        Personal Care                                             Toilet Paper
LSM 1-6 Changes in Purchasing Behaviour during Panic Buying and Lockdown
   Top 15 Value Growth Categories vs. YA
                                                           LSM 1-6 Purchasing Behaviour is
                       LSM 1-6                              Reflective of the ‘New Normal’
                                                       •   Maximising flavor by purchasing spices
Panic Buying Wks                 Lockdown Wks
                                                           and seasonings
 Spices & Seasonings             Spices & Seasonings
     Citrus Fruit                    Citrus Fruit      •   Data & Airtime moved up the list (more
  Games & Puzzles                      Cereals
                                                           people likely to be on prepaid) as the
                                                           primary way of being in touch with people
      Medicinal                       Potatoes
       Wheat                           Airtime         •   Fresh produce with long shelf life so as to
      Vitamins                          Data               avoid travel
       Vinegar                        Haircare
                                                       •   Replenishment of pantry staples
       Cereals                         Onions
   Frozen Poultry                     Medicinal        •   Convenience foods such as Cereal and
     Frozen Fish                      Spreads              Heat & Eat
     Frozen Veg                  Sugar & Sweeteners    •   Baking as an essential way to feed the
       Canned                     Baking Ingredients       family and a new hobby
    Heat and Eat                     Heat & Eat
    Disinfectants                      Wheat
                                                       •   Hair care products for in-home
                                                           maintenance
     Toilet Paper                     Creamers                                  Source: SA Scan Data up to week ending 19 April

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LSM 7-10 Changes in Purchasing Behaviour during Panic Buying and Lockdown
   Top 15 Value Growth Categories vs. YA

                       LSM 7-10                         LSM 7-10 Purchasing Behaviour
                                                        is Reflective of the ‘New Normal’
Panic Buying Wks                  Lockdown Wks
                                                    •    Convenience foods such as Frozen
  Games & Puzzles                   Citrus Fruit         Pastries, as consumers start to
      Vitamins               Spices & Seasonings         experience ‘cooking fatigue’
      Medicinal                    Heat and Eat
                                                    •    Data is on the list as consumers top
       Canned                 Baking Ingredients
                                                         up to stay in touch and work from
       Wheat                         Cereals
                                                         home
       Cereals                       Potatoes
     Citrus Fruit                 Frozen Pastries   •    Fresh and frozen veg with long shelf
 Spices & Seasonings                  Onions             life so as to avoid multiple shopping
    Heat and Eat                    Frozen Veg           trips
      Dry Pasta                       Wheat
                                                    •    The baking hobby has risen and
     Frozen Veg                        Data
                                                         consumers are indulging in ice cream
     Toilet Paper                    Medicinal
     Frozen Fish                     Vitamins       •    Wellness products remain a priority
   Frozen Poultry                    Spreads             during lockdown
      UHT Milk                      Ice Cream
                                                                               Source: SA Scan Data up to week ending 19 April
                                                              © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.   17
Retailers are joining with consumers to encourage contributions to various relief efforts

                           Pick n Pay donates R5 million through Feed the Nation and encourages
                           shoppers to donate online or instore

                           The Shoprite Group announces support for the Solidarity fund through a
                           R1 million donation

                           Clicks Group Directors commit 33% of their salaries to the Solidarity fund for 3
                           months and donate 10 000 flu vaccines to frontline healthcare workers
                           Spar will donate R1 for every donation to the Spar Lodestar foundation feeding
                           scheme
                           Dischem donates R2 million to the Solidarity Fund and encourages shoppers to
                           donate through point conversion
                           Massmart Board & Exec will contribute 230 tons of food to FoodForward SA
                           over the next 3 months
                           Woolworths commits R34million to various relief projects and partners with Gift
                           of the Givers for in-store donation distribution
                                                                         © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.   18
Interest in recipes are still on the incline, especially over weekends. Baking without yeast and home
brewing recipes are on the rise as consumers seek alcoholic beverage alternatives

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Recipe Related Query Search
                                             Search Terms – Interest over Time                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1. Hand sanitizer recipe
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2. Hunters Dry recipe
                                                       South Africa                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     3. Hot cross bun recipe easy
                                                                                                 Recipes                                                               Baking                                                             Yeast                                                                                                         4. Dalgona coffee recipe
120                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     5. Fat cake recipe

100                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Baking Related Query Search
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        1. Pancake recipe
 80                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2. Banana bread recipe
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        3. Baking bread without yeast
 60                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     4. Yeast for baking
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        5. Substitute for baking soda
 40
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Yeast Related Query Search
 20                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     1. Pineapple beer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2. How to make bread without yeast
  0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     3. No yeast bread rolls
                                                                                                                                        2020/03/21

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      2020/03/01
                   2020/03/03
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                                             2020/03/07
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                                                                                                 2020/03/15
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                                                                                                                           2020/03/19

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2020/04/18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2020/04/20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        4. What is brewers yeast
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        5. Bread recipes

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South Africans turn to homebrewing with no end to the restriction on alcohol sales in sight. Homemade
whipped coffee is also trending, allowing a fancy caffeinated fix during lockdown
Alcohol starved South Africans turn to forums with advice on homemade beers and ciders, while caffeine addicts are following
the Dalgona Coffee (a whipped coffee drink originating in India and made popular on social media) trend

https://www.businessinsider.co.za/how-to-make-your-own-homebrew-2020-4
https://www.cosmopolitan.co.za/life/dalgona-coffee-recipe/

                                                                                   © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.   20
In Conclusion
•   Numerous economic and COVID-19 announcements have had South Africans on the edge of their seats. The announcement of
    Lockdown Level 4 starting on 01 May is likely to see a surge of purchasing on certain categories, especially those that were restricted.

•   Easter weekend delivered a growth bump, but grocery sales are stable and flat in the last week.

•   The SA consumer has shifted weekend purchases to week days.

•   Over the last 6 weeks shifted their purchases from health & hygiene and shelf stable categories during the panic buying period, to
    comfort/convenience foods during lockdown.
•   Starting to see ‘cooking fatigue’ as consumers turn to convenience foods and snacking, but recipe inspiration is still sought after,
    especially on weekends
•   Searches for homemade alcoholic brews increase whilst alcohol remains a restricted category

    Retailers and Manufacturers who can adapt quickly to the new normal will build a strong brand with consumers

Purchasing has stabilized,        Consumers will continue to            Winning retailers will             Utilise social media
   but the potential for            social distance, shifting         continue to adjust store          effectively to connect with
   additional demand              grocery trips to weekdays              space to facilitate:              your consumers in a
  spikes remain as SA             and making fewer visits, but         • In-stock of essential              meaningful way by
 stores and factories are          buying more when they do                   assortments                providing inspiration and
 impacted by COVID-19             shop, taking produce shelf          • Support consumption               convenience solutions
        outbreaks                    life into consideration             that has moved from
                                                                        out-of-home to in-home
                                                                     • Support click and collect
                                                                               fulfillment

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COVID-19 Category Impacts

Growths from around the
Globe
Global data up to 29 March 2020
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More information about COVID-19 across the IRI world
Visit our website and join our webinars to keep your finger on the pulse around the world

https://www.iriworldwide.com/en-sa

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APPENDIX

           © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.   39
Stricter lifestyle restrictions have driven slower lockdown growth in SA versus other countries. In the
 latest week, the government has added baby essentials and goods to the list

                            South Africa   Italy               UK                       USA                                    Australia
 Alcohol sales allowed
    during lockdown

 Cigarette sales allowed
    during lockdown
                                                   Initially
Restaurants takeaways &                             were
  food delivery allowed                             open

 Category restrictions in
         store

 Item limits per product

Limited number of people
        per store

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                                                                         23
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