Making our urban planet a little more resilient
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…making our urban planet a little more resilient
URBDP 498/598 ENVIRONMENTA PLANNING
PRACTICUM INTRO
Marina Alberti, UW
Observed Climate Change Trends in the US
1900-2018
USGCRP, 2018
Observed Climate Change Trends (US)
• Annual average temperatures have
increased by 1.8°F across the
contiguous United States since the
beginning of the 20th century
• The season length of heat waves in many U.S.
cities has increased > 40 days since the 1960s
• relative amount of annual rainfall (single-day
intense events) have increased since 1910
USGCRP, 2018
Observed Climate Change Trends in the US 1900-2018
• There is currently no • Oceans are absorbing
detectable change in more than a quarter
• Large declines in long-term U.S of the CO2 increasing
snowpack in the droughts, rather it their acidity
western United States varies across regions.
occurred from 1955 to
2016
• Large declines in snowpack in the western
United States occurred from 1955 to 2016
USGCRP, 2018
Observed Climate Change Trends in the US 1900-2018
• Fish, shellfish, and • Oceans are absorbing
other marine species more than a quarter
• Annual median sea along the Northeast of the CO2 increasing
level has increased coast, on average, their acidity
by about 9 inches moved northward
since the early 20th since the early 1980s
century
USGCRP, 2018
Observed Climate Change Trends (US)
• Cooling degree days (defined as the
number of degrees by which the average
daily temperature is higher than 65°F)
have increased and heating degree days
(lower than 65°F ) have decreased
• Warmer and drier conditions have
contributed to an increase in large forest fires
in the western United States
• The average length of the growing season has
increased across the contiguous United
States
USGCRP, 2018
Observed Climate Change Trends (US)
• Cooling degree days (defined as the
number of degrees by which the average
daily temperature is higher than 65°F)
have increased and heating degree days
(lower than 65°F ) have decreased
• Warmer and drier conditions have
contributed to an increase in large forest fires
in the western United States
• The average length of the growing season has
increased across the contiguous United
States
USGCRP, 2018
Observed and Predicted Climate Change Trends
In Puget SoundSeattle. Water
Along the coast, sea level rise is projected to have an increase of 4.3 feet by the end of the century
It will raise flood risks in low-lying areas of the Puget Sound, and will likely lead to saltwater intrusion into
groundwater supplies.
Increasing ocean temperatures and acidity
will impact fish survival, species abundance, and predator–prey distribution
and timing.
In winter cold season precipitation will fall as rain rather than snow
leading to higher streamflow in winter and spring. Snow melts earlier, and there might be shifts
in timing of water supply, which impacts crop productivity.
Warmer winters have led to record-low snowpack
which contributed to water scarcity and large wildfires that negatively affected farmers, hydropower,
drinking water, air quality, salmon, and recreation.
Projections for increased stream temperature indicate a 22% reduction in salmon habitat
in Washington by late century under a high emissions future.
Higher streamflow is projected to occur in many basins, raising flood risks.
Climate change will affect water quality
Higher air temperatures, lower streamflow, and decreases in rainfall are expected to raise
summer stream temperatures, making it more difficult to meet water quality standards.Heat Flood Wind Drought
Ecosystem Functions à Human Wellbeing
Adapting to Climate Change ▪ Adaptation is not a choice – we canchoose to adapt proactively or respond to the consequences. ▪ We have always adapted to variability – but now the trends are outside of human experience and we need to beprepared. ▪ Adaptation requires a paradigm shift, focusing on managing risks. We know the trends, but not the magnitude.
Planning for What Future(s)
Key Questions 1. What are major trajectories and key uncertainties that will affect the resilience of urbanizing regions over the next 20-50 years? 2. What impacts, thresholds and critical transitions may emerge from the interactions amongthese drivers? 3. How might alternative future scenarios affect social well-being, economic assets, and ecosystemservices? 4. How can we identify robust strategies to reduce vulnerabilities and increase resilience to maintain these conditions, assets and services in the longterm?
Key Questions 1. What are major trajectories and key uncertainties that will affect the resilience of urbanizing regions over the next 20-50 years? 2. What impacts, thresholds and critical transitions may emerge from the interactions amongthese drivers? 3. How might alternative future scenarios affect social well-being, economic assets, and ecosystemservices? 4. How can we identify robust strategies to reduce vulnerabilities and increase resilience to maintain these conditions, assets and services in the longterm?
What are Scenarios? • Scenarios are hypotheses of alternative futures designed to highlight the risks and opportunities involved in strategic issues and assess strategic decisions. • Scenarios are narratives of alternative environments in which management decisions may be played out. • Scenarios are relevant plausible stories about the future that allow us to: – synthesize the information about what isknown – anticipate and explore what may happen – help figure out what we want to happen and how to getthere
Opportunities and Challenges • Provide insight into drivers of change • Challenge our assumptions about the future • Take into account uncertainty and surprise • Reveal the implications of potential future trajectories • Anticipate problems and potential risks • Illuminate opportunities and options for action • Identify desirable future and how to get there • Develop and assess strategies and plans
Key elements of scenarioplanning
Class Objectives:
Linking theory to Practice
CLASS
• Learn how a new understanding of cities as coupled
human natural systems can inform a paradigm shifts
and practice in ecosystem science and urban design
and planning.
PRACTICUM
• Learn by experimenting, developing and testing
hypotheses about how future scenarios can influence
system shifts in urbanizing regions and devising
strategies for planning under uncertaintyClass Assignments On-line discussions • Forum for sharing ideas from lectures and readings. Each student is responsible for posting comments on key discussion questions and reading peer comments. Memos • Linking theory to practice. Each memo discuss the theoretical basis of resilience science and planning in coupled human natural systems. Assignments • Teams work in and outside of class to develop case studies of four plausible regime shifts in urban ecosystems. The themes of the class teams are carbon, hydrology, and biodiversity, human health, and equity.
Questions for
On-line Discussions
1. What characterizes a city as a coupled human natural
system?
2. What are key slow and fast variables affecting
ecosystem function and regime shifts in urban
ecosystems?
3. What are scenarios and how do they help integrate
uncertainty in planning and decision making?
4. How can we identify and select indicators of resilience?
What are some examples?Questions for Memos 1. How can we define coupled human natural system? What are some key qualities? How do they differ from other natural systems? 2. What are regime shifts? What are some key elements that characterize regime shifts in urban ecosystems? 3. What are scenarios and how do they differ from model predictions? 4. What are some emerging principles for urban resilience design and planning?
Exercise 1: Imagine the Future 1) Focus on the urban ecosystem function(e.g. flood control, carbon cycling, biodiversity, human health) selected by your team your team, and identify some key dimensions that describe thefunction • Write each element using keywords on a post-it. 2) Identify key driving forces (e.g., climate change, urban development, technology, social values etc.) that may affect the future of the selected ecosystem. • Rank them in terms of their uncertainty and Importance • Select the two most uncertain and most important
Example List of Drivers • Human ■ Built Environment – Values ■ Development – Behavior ■ Resource Management – Demography ■ Infrastructure • Institutions ■ Natural Environment – Economy ■ Hydrology – Governance ■ Climate Change – Knowledge ■ Ecosystems – Social institutions ■ Biophysical Template
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